Monday, March 8th Recap

 

Royal Never Give Up vs eStar (Net: +2.39 units)

“Good teams win, GREAT teams cover” – Some guy

Of course I’m kidding, eStar are not a great team but the big kill spread against the team just looking to get out of there is always one of my favorite plays. Wei put on yet another clinic in this one, Xiaohu as well winning a tough matchup in game one. Not really much to say here, RNG rolled.

JD Gaming vs Victory Five (Net: +0.5 units)

These games were chippy.

Game one was a bloodbath early on and it just rolled on through with a massive 4v4 at the first herald… remember what I was saying yesterday about JDG at first herald? Well, V5 wasn’t listening apparently. This one went on for awhile with both teams sort of throwing back and forth. It was looking like V5 had turned the corner and were going to win this one before they had a ridiculously poor team fight at 33:00ish (props to Kanavi for disrupting but you could tell V5 just weren’t on the same page on whatever the call was). That ended up eventually costing them the game even with a lead.

Victory Five definitely should have won this game two. They had a huge tempo advantage and a moderate gold lead with a really easy to execute, front-to-back two-core and then they just sort of took their foot off the gas and let Loken pick up a ton of free tower gold in the 10-20 minute range for no real reason. It wasn’t like they got nothing done with the early lead either but they just stopped pressing and had some really weird lane assignments. I don’t know what happened it was weird. JDG eventually just picked them apart on the map, they grouped to set up vision on baron and Kanavi landed a massive Lillia ult that turned the tides of the game.

 Brutal series. I give credit to JDG for clawing back but teams continue to play directly into what they want and they’re still struggling. It doesn’t bode well for their playoff looks. They’ve got a lot of cleaning up to do if they want any chance whatsoever in playoffs because this bracket is simply too tough. They’re going to get in, their schedule the rest of the way is too easy but I don’t think this team is very good at all and I’ll likely be fading them after their price gets fat and overinflated come playoff time.

Victory Five needed this series badly and they honestly should have won both of these games. Tough way to go but it was their own undoing. Can only blame themselves, JDG didn’t exactly wow in this performance.

 

LPL Net Total: +2.89 units

 

Daily Net Total: +2.89 units

 

Last Week (March 1st-7th): +36.612 units (ROI: +14.53%)

 


LOL Pro League (China)

Week 8 – Day 2

 

 

FunPlus Phoenix -2500 (-1.5 maps @ -385)

vs

LGD Gaming +919 (+1.5 maps @ +273, -1.5 @ +1900)

 

 

Map ML Price: FPX -1000 / LGD +571

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +300 / under -435)

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -110 / under -119)

Kill Spread: -10.5 @ -109 / +10.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 17.5 / 6.5

Time Total: 29:00 (over +111 / under -145)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

LGD +1.5 maps @ +273 (moderate)

OVER 2.5 maps @ +300 (light)

LGD map moneyline @ +571 (light)

 

Obviously at these ridiculous numbers you’ve got to mostly think about whether or not you want to back the dogs at all or not. LGD have improved slightly but FPX are on an absolute warpath right now. LGD lack coordination and the individual players on this team are severely lacking compared to their counterparts. I want no part of the underdogs here.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 26.245

Time-Implied: 25.91

Underdog Win: 26.979

“Gelati” Total Projection: 25.902 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 53.62% (FPX 73.91% / LGD 33.33%)

Volatility Rating: FPX 0.26565 / LGD 0.3308 (League Avg: 0.2991)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

LGD team total OVER 6.5 kills @ -102 (moderate)

(alt) OVER 26.5 kills @ +134 (light)

OVER 24.5 kills @ -110 (light)

 

FPX are averaging a shade over 1.0 combined kills per minute in wins so this total largely depends on just how quickly they close this game out. Given how toothless LGD is early on in games I’m just going to avoid this, in fact I’d lean under if I had to pick one.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 30.299 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 29.66 / 29.8

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 58.21% (FPX 60.87% / LGD 55.55%)

Volatility Rating: FPX 0.17122 / LGD 0.13546 (League Avg: 0.15801)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 29:00 @ +111 (strong)

 

FPX have been very quick winners this season with an average game time in wins of just a bit over 28 minutes. The model likes this play because of the price plus the frequency with which they eclipse this mark and even considering the odds for the series itself, thinks this isn’t a bad spot. They’ve had a few REALLY fast wins that are bringing this number down. That said, 10 of their wins this season have been under 29 minutes. Given how poor LGD is in the early game this could very well be an FPX speed run but laying that much juice for the under when all it takes is one fumble or one experimental draft gone wrong or even just a Karthus + Scaling Mid game to ruin it. I’ll pass.

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

LGD first dragon @ +119 (strong)

OVER 1.5 barons @ +202 (strong)

OVER 4.5 dragons @ +132 (moderate)

 

The model didn’t flag it because of the time projection and FPX’s overall portfolio but if you look into FPX against “bad” teams (I filtered OMG, RW, eStar, and LNG as a sample) there has not been a single game with more than 12 towers destroyed. My model made that market within a quarter percent but I think if you’re going to play this series at all that’s one way to do it. It’s less volatile than the under on the short time total, less volatile than the dragon total, albeit more expensive.

I’ll take a half stake on the LGD first dragon. FPX haven’t been a dragon team, much preferring to snowball via the herald into tower or just straight up diving. They opt for economy and pace over scaling in almost every single situation, especially when they know they’re better than their opponents. LGD could just pick up free dragons here, they also tend to play toward the bottom of the map anyway.

 

My Picks:

 

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -294 (2.94 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -286 (2.86 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -270 (2.7 units)

Prop: Map 1 LGD first dragon @ +119 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 LGD first dragon @ +123 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 3 LGD first dragon @ +125 (0.5 units)

  


TOP Esports -833 (-1.5 maps @ -182)

vs

BiliBili Gaming +487 (+1.5 maps @ +142, -1.5 @ +1000)

 

 

Map ML Price: TOP -455 / BLG +312

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +179 / under -233)

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -114 / under -115)

Kill Spread: -9.5 @ -105 / +9.5 @ -122

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over +141 / under -185)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

The model makes this within half a percent of the market price. Here’s the deal. BiliBili are capable of being a significantly better team than we’ve seen so far this season. They looked much more like the 2020 version of themselves in their last match but it was against TT. We’ve seen this team beat good teams like RNG and RareAtom this season and also lose to everything from Invictus to LNG to OMG. Could they turn in one of those stronger performances here? Absolutely. In fact, they better because other than a match against Rogue Warriors later this week, their schedule finishes with WE, Suning, and FunPlus. BiliBili need this win but unfortunately for them, so do TOP and with the form they’ve been showing this season I’m not sure this is the spot to back the underdogs. I think TOP roll here.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 25.993

Time-Implied: 27.667

Underdog Win: 27.024

“Gelati” Total Projection: 26.492 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 50.32% (TOP 52.63% / BLG 48%)

Volatility Rating: TOP 0.33507 / BLG 0.28847 (League Avg: 0.2991)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

BLG team total OVER 8.5 kills @ -110 (moderate)

TOP team total OVER 16.5 kills @ -114 (moderate)

 

This total looks about right to me. In a top win I’d project about 25.7 kills. TOP tend to lose bloodier though so if you think BLG make a series out of this then the over is worth a look. Pass for me.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 30.974 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 31.58 / 31.59

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 41.79% (TOP 31.58% / BLG 52%)

Volatility Rating: TOP 0.18075 / BLG 0.16504 (League Avg: 0.15801)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 31:00 @ +141 (miniscule)

 

TOP win and lose in under 31:00, BLG win and lose in well over 32:00. If you think TOP are going to steamroll this series the time total under isn’t a bad look (although just take the under 4.5 dragons if you’re going to do that). I think we might get one competitive game potentially and 31:00 is awfully short so I’m staying away here, I’d rather play this game script at a cheaper price through other derivatives. 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -120 (strong)

TOP first blood @ -172 (strong)*

BLG first blood @ +129 (moderate-strong)*

TOP first tower @ -217 (moderate)*

BLG first tower @ +153 (moderate)*

BLG first herald @ +160 (moderate)

BLG first dragon @ +127 (light)

OVER 1.5 barons @ +178 (very light)

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -227 (miniscule)

 

There’s a case to be made for taking one of the BLG firsts here, I’d lean toward herald but TOP are such a strong objective team that’s flexible and tends to alter their plan to their opponents plan via the draft so I never like betting teams against them for firsts. The under 4.5 dragons would be how I play this one or under 12.5 towers despite the lack of value (mostly inflated by BLG).

 

My Picks:

 

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -120 (1.2 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -143 (1.43 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -120 (1.2 units)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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