Monday, March 1st Recap

 

FunPlus Phoenix vs JD Gaming (Net: +8.12 units)

I don’t even want to put any stock into game one because this draft by JDG was very “do nothing” looking when you consider who they’re playing against. This is the kind of draft you do against a team that you’re way better than. You have very little backline access, you know Doinb plays things like the Kled that can be challenging or even pointless for Zoe to even bother with and you’re relying on Kayn and Sett for your backline access while Zoe wants to poke? It was just really weird. Unless JDG jumped out to a ridiculous lead this was over before it started.

Game two was a more balanced draft for JDG. I know people don’t seem to like Graves and Syndra based on win rates but it’s a pretty potent early and mid game combo that allows some instant fight turning opportunities but Doinb and Beichuan busted out the Nocturne + Karthus double global, differentiated damage combo which is a duo I’ve played a TON in my time (although as Karthus mid). This was a brilliant look. Doinb bullied around Yagao despite dying once early. The real gamebreakers in game two were Lwx and Crisp who severely outplayed Loken and LvMao as Kaisa/Rell vs Aphelios/Thresh. Thresh sorta of dictates how this lane goes and has a ton of answers to what Rell can do in lane so this was one that JDG shouldn’t have had any issues with and FPX 2v2 killed them early on.

As many of you know, I only listen to the broadcasts a small percentage of the time as the narrative sledgehammer gets a little annoying to someone like me who watches more than a thousand games a year but I had it on for this one and Clement made a good point in the post match. JDG seem way WAY too reliant on their enemies screwing up, specifically at the first herald fight. If teams just don’t oblige them they end up looking lost. This reminds me a lot of Team WE last year (although they were the dragon forcing team). They struggled a lot to engineer their own advantages and relied a lot on other teams taking fights they had no reason to take. FPX are a very intelligent and disciplined team. They look unorthodox but they make +EV plays and rarely take unnecessary risks. In this league you’re going to dominate competition with solid drafting and good macro. They have the players as the icing on the cake.

It wouldn’t at all surprise me to see JDG mix it up in the next series and play Xiye or Mystic. They’ve got to change something or at least start trying something different before playoffs because this isn’t going to fly against any of the other top eight teams.

Rogue Warriors vs EDward Gaming (Net: +1.68 units)

EDG handed RW Seraphine, Kaisa, and Lillia in game one and still manged to pull it out but Rogue Warriors had a lead and the momentum advantage at points in this early and mid game. It was good to see signs of life from this team although you could put just as much weight on some questionable decisions from EDG.

RW tried a double AD + Karthus jungle combo in game two which was a GREAT look against four low ranged champions but EDG forced the action in the bottom lane to take advantage of Karthus trying to power farm. Once that was disrupted, Jiejie’s Taliyah looked like it was goign to take over the game but this one went south with some more boneheaded decisions from EDG taking a few fights they probably shouldn’t have. RW picked up the first two dragons and despite a gold deficit in the mid game, were in decent shape with the Karthus and four low range champions on EDG’s side. A won team fight before third drake resutled in a win for RW and the forcing of soul point. RW would win another sloppy fight before the fourth dragon that Betty would clean up on Ezreal after Haro put a ton of damage down allowing RW to pick up ocean soul. However they’d get aced at baron, EDG took mid inhibitor, eventually elder drake, and then over the course of the next six minutes or so would close the game out by amassing enough of a gold lead with the elder buff to choke RW out.

As I mentioned, Rogue Warriors played BY FAR their best series of the year here. I loved this draft in game two and they legitimately outmaneuvered EDG in a few of these earlier fights. I think RW might be a live dog the rest of the season.

For EDG, I’m not sure how much to look into the “it’s Rogue Warriors…” factor in this but this was not a clean look AT ALL by them. Obviously you’re not going to stomp every game and really EDG haven’t been stomping anybody. This is part of my concern with them and why I don’t think they’re the best team in the LPL. They don’t consistently build leads for themselves the way the other elite teams do. Obviously this team is still good but like I’ve been saying, they’re definitely not quite as good as public perception.

 

LPL Net Total: +9.8 units

 

Daily Net Total: +9.8 units

 

 


 

LOL Pro League (China)

Week 7 – Day 2

 

BiliBili Gaming +240 (+1.5 maps @ -147, -1.5 @ +571)

vs

Invictus Gaming -303 (-1.5 maps @ +115, +1.5 @ -1000)

 

Map ML Price: BLG +176 / IG -233

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +115 / under -147)

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -110 / -6.5 @ -119

 Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over +100 / under -130)

 

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

 

Opened around -333 / +260.

In classic Invictus fashion they sweep the, at the time, league leading EDG only to come back and lose 0-2 to Suning not days later. Now, the Suning series was a lot closer than the box score indicated. There were a handful of “knife’s edge” situations in cross map trading that were just played very well by Suning. It wasn’t so much an underperformance as a Suning exceptional performance. Invictus remain one of those challenging teams to handicap because of the way they play the game but in their past two series we’ve seen some adjustments away from that purely “win lane-win game” approach that has served them so well over the years. They had a similar trajectory in Summer 2020 where they started off doing that and rounded into form in the second half.

BiliBili are in a bit of a rough spot. They were 2-0’d by EDG which wasn’t too surprising but they also dropped a series to OMG after taking game one which is concerning. Prior to that they beat RNG. In short, BLG are all over the place and it’s more than a little perplexing. To me they still show a lot of the signs of a good team and their style usually gets better over the course of the season as they become more refined in their uptempo approach to attacking a game. They have won a majority of the games where they’ve been ahead at the 15 minute mark but they’ve also “micro-punted” (I’m coining that term) a handful of very early tempo advantages. I do think BLG are significantly better than their record they’ve just had a few weird performances which plants the seed of doubt for most people. They’re doing a lot of things well, they’ve just been a little feast-or-famine by design. As they clean up I think it’ll improve.

A quick note on Jwei over Mark. Jwei looked pretty good in the series we saw him in earlier this season and is known as a strong in game leader even as a youngster. I didn’t upgrade or downgrade BLG based on this I think they’re both solid.

I make this right around the market price so I’ll be avoiding a side in this game but I think this is more than like a 2-1 for Invictus. BLG +1.5 or Invictus moneyline are how I’d take this if I had to make a decision on it.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 26.531

Time-Implied: 27.043

Underdog Win: 26.309

“Gelati” Total Projection: 26.849 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total:  48.91% (IG 50% / BLG 47.83%)

Volatility Rating: IG 0.32615 / BLG 0.29751 (League Avg: 0.3016)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

BiliBili team total OVER 10.5 kills @ -103 (strong)

Invictus team total UNDER 15.5 @ -111 (light)

 

The BiliBili team total isn’t a bad look here actually. They’ve covered their 10.17 average team total as underdogs on 9 out of 15 attempts. Invictus games can sometimes get a little wild plus I think they’re live to take a game or even the series and they likely hit if that happens. 10.5 is high for a dog but BLG have eclipsed this total three times in losses as well. (UPDATE: this moved up, pass)

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 31.473 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 31.49 / 31.49

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 39.63% (IG 22.73% / BLG 56.52%)

Volatility Rating:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 31:00 @ -130 (moderate-light)

 

Invictus win really fast so if you are bullish on their side here that’s a reasonable play but 56% of BLG’s games have gone over this total this season and they’re averaging 33.35 minutes per loss so I’m just going to pass. If anything I’d lean to the over against the model.

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

IG first dragon @ -175 (strong)*

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -189 (strong)

BiliBili first blood @ +116 (moderate)

Bilibili first dragon @ +130 (moderate)*

UNDER 4.5 dragons @ +108 (light)

 

I’ll be avoiding the props. A few of these indicators I don’t think are as strong given that they match up well. In that case you usually just take the plus money side but I’m just going to stick to my under 12.5 towers.

 

 

My Picks:

 

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -189 (1.89 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -185 (1.85 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -175 (1.75 units)

 


 

 

Suning Gaming -588 (-1.5 maps @ -156, +1.5 @ -2500)

vs

TT Gaming +424 (+1.5 maps @ +122, -1.5 @ +919)

 

Map ML Price: SN -385 / TT +273

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +160 / under -208)

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -120 / under -109)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -114 / +8.5 @ -115

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -143 / under +110)

 

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

TT series moneyline @ +424 (VERY VERY strong)

TT +1.5 maps @ +122 (VERY VERY strong)

TT map moneyline @ +273 (VERY VERY strong)

OVER 2.5 maps @ +160 (strong)

 

Suning looked excellent against Invictus in their most recent match back from the break. Perhaps the time off was what this team needed. They weren’t exactly doing anything differently they just played a very clean cross-map game winning trades on both ends. Suning likely deserve an upgrade from their numbers in this situation as they’ve been struggling through the season so far.

ThunderTalk have been a bit of a tease. They’re very good at getting the ball rolling by forcing herald and upping the pace of every game they’re in even if it takes sacrificing some of their overall economy to do it. Their negative gold differentials early don’t speak to the amount of pressure they’ve been able to create. The problem they have is that they stall out after good starts.

In their past two series we’ve seen this TT team take games off of RareAtom (and probably should have taken that series, as well as JDG. They’ve won 6 of their past 13 which is a huge step forward from the one win in their first ten games. TT aren’t a great team but they’re good enough at getting early leads that if they ever learn how to close them out they’ll be a nice punch-up underdog.

Obviously TT are at an individual player disadvantage here but Suning have been sloppy enough in the early game, especially this season, that I think TT are a live underdog here. I mean really, other than the last series, what has Suning proven this season? They’re sub 50% in dragon control, just barely above 50% in herald, their economy is exactly that of a mid table team (and very close to TT’s). TT actually have a similar kill-agnostic economy as well. My model makes this a 50/50 and while I’m not quite that bullish on TT, this line implies roughly an 80-20 series which is just ridiculous to me given what we’ve seen overall from Suning this season. This is a really bad number.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 26.429

Time-Implied: 26.558

Underdog Win: 26.37

“Gelati” Total Projection: 26.369 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total:  50.24% (SN 36.84% / TT 63.64%)

Volatility Rating: SN 0.33507 / TT 0.35538 (League Avg: 0.3016)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Suning team total UNDER @ -123 (strong)

(alt) OVER 23.5 kills @ -128 (miniscule)

 

No plays here as I like the side for TT more than the Suning team total under.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 32.945 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 31.92 / 32.88

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total:  58.49% (SN 57.89% / TT 59.1%)

Volatility Rating: SN 0.1822 / TT 0.14676 (League Avg: 0.15452)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 31:00 @ -143 (light)

 

The over looks like a stronger play than the model thinks to me given that TT tend to jump out and then botch their lead meaning we get a few extra minutes of extended time as the other team mounts their comeback. That said, there’s enough risk of ruin here with a blowout either way that I’ll just pass.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

TT first herald @ -102 (VERY strong)

TT first tower @ +104 (strong)

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -263 (strong)

TT first dragon @ +121 (moderate-strong)

OVER 1.5 barons @ +156 (moderate)

OVER 4.5 dragons @ -143 (moderate)

 

I don’t usually like to double dip on correlated props I just take whichever presents the best value but TT have been so good at getting the ball rolling and Suning have been the exact opposite that I’m going to take essentially a 1.5x stake here. The primary will be on TT first herald @ -102 and I’ll do half a unit each on TT first tower @ +104. As always, under 12.5 towers looking sharp here although less than usual given some of the weird game states Suning end up in.

The over 4.5 drags and 1.5 barons isn’t a bad play here given the typical game scripts we see from both of these teams. In fact I’d probably give those a boost. Since I’m already indexed into that script though I’m just going to stick to the markets I’ve picked out but these are both solid plays as well.

 

 

 

My Picks:

 

Map Spread: TT +1.5 maps @ +121 (1 unit)

Moneyline: TT +424 (0.5 units)

Map Spread: TT -1.5 maps @ +919 (0.25 units)

Prop: Map 1 TT first herald @ -102 (1.02 units)

Prop: Map 2 TT first herald @ -102 (1.02 units)

Prop: Map 3 TT first herald @ -102 (1.02 units)

Prop: Map 1 TT first tower @ +104 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 TT first tower @ +104 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 3 TT first tower @ +104 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -250 (2.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -250 (2.5 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -233 (2.33 units)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

 

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