Monday, March 22nd Recap

 

Royal Never Give Up vs RareAtom (Net: +0.42 units)

We’re starting to see just how volatile “reset” carries like Tristana and Jinx can be, particularly in combination with the potent level 2 and 3 support all-in’s at the moment from things like Rell and Alistar. Teams are continuing to test the waters with trying to deal with Tristana by not just leaving the flex pick up, but letting her get to red side twice today. We’re not usually results oriented here but 12/3/5 and 7/1/6 in those instances. Anyway, that’s not all this series was about.

RNG snowballed a ridiculous opening 10 minutes into a massive lead off the back of a questionable decision by RareAtom to contest the first rift herald despite not having the vision or position to do so. Really forced. It was going to be tough to recovered from this sequence and RNG intelligently continued to pick on Cube’s Chogath (camp Chogath folks… lesson for solo queue).

Game two got off to a great start for RareAtom but Wei and Xiaohu just completely took Cube’s Jayce out of this game. Despite that problem, RareAtom managed to counterpunch appropriately against every play RNG did and managed to maintain a gold lead for awhile. This became a real slugfest when it was looking like Wei and Xiaohu would just run away with the game. Good on RA for keeping in it. I think if RareAtom would have not had the first baron of this game stolen that they would have taken the game but a Hecarim ult managed to kill Leyan and then smite for the steal (rough look). It still took two more barons to end this epic back-and-forth.

Both teams made one or two critical errors in this series but they both did a lot of intelligent stuff as well. I really enjoy watching both of these teams play. They have such a strong grasp on the game right now, how to leverage certain advantages, and perhaps most importantly a sense of how to play damage control, something that’s sorely lacking in the LPL. Except for that weird first rift committal in the first game by RA, these are two of the only teams in this league that actually understand what it means to minimize losses instead of just losing the game on the spot on a lost fight. Sure, the scoreboard doesn’t always look that way but both make a concerted effort for forward vision and to clear opposing forward vision, usually don’t take fights they know they can’t win unless they have no other options, and just generally understand what good macro is. It’s always a pleasure.

Invictus vs Victory Five (Net: +3.05 units)

On the opposite end of the spectrum… ok well maybe it’s not that bad. Each team took turns steamrolling an early game in the first two games. The third was much more competitive and honestly was starting to look like it was going to go Victory Five’s way before a pop off fight from Puff picked up a triple (or maybe a quadra I forget) and it was just off to the races. This is the Tristana effect. IF you’re not a super clean team fighting team it’s just so easy for a fight to go south when resets are involved.

Invictus punched their ticket to playoffs and eliminated Victory Five leaving just LNG and BiliBili to battle for the last spot. I can’t say I’m too enthusiastic about Invictus who are one of the more perplexing teams to handicap this season… well, I guess every season but they’ve got the talent to upset so if this is your 9th seed that’s a pretty terrifying bracket.

 

LPL Net Total: +3.47 units

 

Daily Net Total: +3.47 units (+25.82% ROI)

 

 

Last Week (March 15th-21st):  -16.94 units (-11.17% ROI)

 

 

 


LOL Pro League (China)

Week 10 – Day 2

 

 

 

OMG +910 (+1.5 maps @ +256, -1.5 @ +2200)

vs

JD Gaming -2500 (-1.5 maps @ -357)

 

 

Map ML Price: OMG +530 / JDG -909

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +289 / under -400)

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -110 / under -118)

Kill Spread: +10.5 @ -112 / -10.5 @ -115

Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 17.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over +141 / under -185)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

JDG Tale of the Tape OMG
548.2 Gold Diff @ 10 min -698.4
1217.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1445.4
1942.3 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1290.1
55.9 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -55.8
50.4 Gold Diff / min first 20 -132.2
385.0 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -202.8
1860.2 Gold /min (GPM) 1687.7
55.4 Gold / min vs Avg -117.1
89.8 Gold Diff / min -202.8
1.2 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.8
1646.2 Kill Agnostic GPM 1545.0
58.4 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -119.2
1956.7 GPM in wins 1923.1
285.2 Gold Diff per min in wins 277.7
1645.7 GPM in losses 1589.7
-344.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -403.0
88.8 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -203.8
-8.5 Win-Adjusted GPM -42.0
-39.3 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -46.7
53.3 Dragon Control % 46.7
47.4 Herald Control % 47.1
50.0 Baron Control % 45.2
10.0 Quality Wins? 3.0
50.0 % of wins as Quality 30.0

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OMG +1.5 maps @ +256 (strong)

OVER 2.5 maps @ +289 (strong)

OMG map moneyline @ +530 (moderate-strong)

OMG series moneyline @ +910 (moderate)

 

So Kane is getting the start for OMG in this match. The last time we saw him on the LPL stage was 2019 in a similar situation. His LDL statistics are much better than they were that time around and he’s done a decent job on a poor OMG LDL team. That said, he’s not exactly popping off the page either which makes me a little less bullish on my original OMG position here (mostly because of the price).  Why? Because Eric is actually pretty good.

It’s worth mentioning that ADC is the most replaceable role in terms of its overall impact on the game. So in a lot of ways “so goes OMG, so goes the ADC.” You could also make the case that this is slightly counteracted by the “hunger” aspect of a guy being called up to see if he can perform for a contract or starting gig somewhere.

With all of that out of the way let’s get to the matchup because… it’s ugly.

The thing with OMG is that they’re kind of a one-trick pony team. They’re pretty good at the global ultimate compositions utilizing things like Galio, Ryze, and Twisted Fate but once you take them off of those picks they struggle mightily mostly because Wuming is just severely outclassed against any decent LPL caliber mid laner (we’ve seen this over the course of a large sample size at this point).

So there’s a few ways to handicap this series. You could just wait until the draft to see if OMG get a decent draft that fits their style or if JDG are limit testing by leaving up Tristana or experimenting on their own. Or you could do what I’m going to do which is bet this pre-flop mostly just based on the market and if other opportunities present themselves then I’ll fire.

A classic hold your nose special. This number is just too big not to take a shot on. JDG could easily let their foot off the gas here despite having a chance at a coveted top two seed. I’ll be taking the map moneyline in this situation because a split stake pays out better than the

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 26.329

Time-Implied: 27.317

Underdog Win: 28.81

“Gelati” Total Projection: 27.05 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 51.62% (JDG 62.07% / OMG 41.18%)

Volatility Rating: JDG 0.28885 / OMG 0.30942  (League Avg: 0.3011)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

—-

Team Totals:

JDG team total UNDER 17.5 @ -114 (light)

 

JDG League Average OMG
Combined Kills / game 28.586 27.18 25.925
Combined Kills / min 0.921 0.89 0.839
Kills per win 19.069 18.27 20.050
Kills per loss 8.760 9.28 6.823
Deaths per win 9.75 8.30 8.80
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 8.70 9.53 11.30
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 11.67 9.58 11.29

 

My first instinct in this game was to take the huge kill spread for OMG, especially given that JDG might limit test or even just play vanilla to get out of here without showing too much but OMG are awful when they lose.

When kill spreads are 10.5 or more, underdogs have covered the spread just 50% of the time (22 occurrences). However, since Week 8, we’ve had 16 of those 22 occurrences and the underdogs have covered 10 out of 16.

JDG are also just 12-13 against the kill spread (avg: -6.3) as favorites this season and it hasn’t been that much better recently.

Another hold your nose and take the kill spreads.

 

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 31.038 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 30.96 / 31.02

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 47.67% (JDG 48.28% / OMG 47.06%)

Volatility Rating: JDG 0.17583 / OMG 0.16466 (League Avg: 0.16055)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 31:00 @ +141 (moderate)

 

JDG OMG
Average Game Time 31.57 30.50
Avg Game Time (in wins) 32.57 33.77
Avg Game Time (in losses) 29.363 29.144

 

JDG against the “bad” teams (RW, TT, EST, V5, LNG) are averaging a shade over 32 minutes a win with only five wins coming in under 31 minutes and most of them over 32. OMG against playoff teams are averaging just over 30 minutes a game. Even within their recent surge (past 15 games I used) they’ve only gone under this number six times and are averaging 31.69 minutes. It’s close but the price is right. I’ll take the over.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OMG first dragon @ +137 (VERY strong)

OVER 1.5 barons @ +197 (strong)

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -312 (moderate-strong)

OVER 4.5 dragons @ +121 (moderate)

OMG first tower @ +178 (light)

 

OMG first dragon has been very kind to me this season and I’ll be going back to that well once again. You could make a decent case for playing the over neutrals here as well but I like the over time total a little more despite the small risk of ruin. Almost every game that’s gone over 4.5 dragons and under 31 was the result of a swift four drake snowball which I’m not sure OMG will allow given that they tend to sell out for first drake. That said, they may want to play less around bottom lane with Kane in.

I’ll take OMG first drake and under 12.5 towers.

 

My Picks:

 

Map Spread: OMG +1.5 maps @ +256 (0.5 units)

Moneyline: OMG +910 (0.25 units)

Map Spread: OMG -1.5 maps @ +2200 (0.1 units)

Kill Spread: Map 1 OMG +10.5 kills @ -118 (1.18 units)

Kill Spread: Map 2 OMG +10.5 kills @ -118 (1.18 units)

Kill Spread: Map 3 OMG +10.5 kills @ -143 (1.43 units)

Time Total: Map 1 OVER 31:00 @ +141 (1 unit)

Time Total: Map 2 OVER 31:00 @ +126 (1 unit)

Time Total: Map 3 OVER 31:00 @ +108 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 OMG first dragon +137 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 OMG first dragon @ +142 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 3 OMG first dragon @ +137 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -312 (3.12 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -312 (3.12 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -294 (2.94 units)

 

 

 


Suning Gaming -385 (-1.5 maps @ -106, +1.5 @ -1429)

vs

BiliBili Gaming +271 (+1.5 maps @ -119, -1.5 @ +722)

 

 

Map ML Price: SN -294 / BLG +221

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +128 / under -164)

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -127 / under -102)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -120 / +7.5 @ -108

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +119 / under -154)

 

 (Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

Suning Tale of the Tape BiliBili
423.2 Gold Diff @ 10 min 153.1
612.1 Gold Diff @ 15 min 19.6
1563.9 Gold Diff @ 20 min 361.8
-40.4 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -1.5
42.6 Gold Diff / min first 20 -27.0
555.6 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 356.9
1827.5 Gold /min (GPM) 1803.6
22.7 Gold / min vs Avg -1.2
92.1 Gold Diff / min -5.4
1.3 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.1
1630.0 Kill Agnostic GPM 1626.6
39.4 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 3.9
1952.3 GPM in wins 1965.7
337.7 Gold Diff per min in wins 336.7
1671.4 GPM in losses 1651.7
-214.9 Gold Diff per min in losses -326.0
91.0 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -6.4
-12.8 Win-Adjusted GPM 0.6
13.2 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 12.2
49.6 Dragon Control % 49.3
62.7 Herald Control % 38.1
52.8 Baron Control % 51.1
9.0 Quality Wins? 7.0
60.0 % of wins as Quality 46.7

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

BiliBili +1.5 maps @ -119 (strong)

BiliBili map moneyline @ +221 (strong)

BiliBili series moneyline @ +271 (moderate-strong)

OVER 2.5 maps @ +128 (moderate-light)

 

BiliBili are battling for their playoff lives here and more than likely need to win both of their final matches against Suning and FPX to take the spot from LNG. Suning are playing to maintain their #8 seed (which would mean they play Invictus at the moment). They could potentially move up to #7 with a win here and RareAtom loss to EDG later in the week. In short, both teams should be “up” for this match. Unless you think Suning are going to experiement or intentionally not show anything. I don’t think that will be the case but it’s a possibility.

I think this number is just too big. As frustrating as BiliBili have been this season they’ve had some competitive matches against very good teams and their numbers suggest that they’re a slightly better team than the performance that we’ve seen so far. That said, they make some really REALLY dumb decisions sometimes and that in combination with a long-term identity crisis has landed them in a difficult position.

BiliBili aren’t a bad team. The rest of the league just got better. At least in their most recent matches they’ve sort of gone back to their bread-and-butter much like V5 have. Play around Meteor’s momentum shifting tempo play. That’ll be challenging against SofM but I fully expect BLG to take a game at the very least here. Suning have looked significantly improved but they’re still not exactly blowing the doors off and don’t deserve to be laying this kind of chalk to a competent team. Sure they can beat anyone, it doesn’t mean they should be favored in this fashion.

 

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 26.273

Time-Implied: 27.925

Underdog Win: 28.054

“Gelati” Total Projection: 27.23 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 56.09% (SN 44.44% / BLG 67.74%)

Volatility Rating:  SN 0.38768 / BLG 0.28961 (League Avg: 0.3011)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

—-

Team Totals:

BLG team total OVER 8.5 kills @ -108 (strong)

Suning team total UNDER 15.5 @ -112 (strong)

 

SN League Average BLG
Combined Kills / game 27.163 27.18 27.307
Combined Kills / min 0.866 0.89 0.860
Kills per win 16.748 18.27 17.460
Kills per loss 10.594 9.28 8.781
Deaths per win 6.67 8.30 8.27
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 10.27 9.53 9.47
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 6.67 9.58 10.63

 

I’ll be playing the kill spreads for BLG in this contest despite the number looking just about right. Whenever I get over on the dog and under on the favorite both strongly suggested I lean toward the kill spread if it’s 7.5 or greater. This is close but I’ll be taking it.  It’s a bit of a gut check as well with BLG fighting for their lives here.

 

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 32.358 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 32.02 / 32.26

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 48.27% (SN 48.15% / BLG 48.39%)

Volatility Rating: SN 0.18016 / BLG 0.15839 (League Avg: 0.16055)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 32:00 @ +119 (light)

 

SN BLG
Average Game Time 32.44 32.27
Avg Game Time (in wins) 29.94 31.84
Avg Game Time (in losses) 35.569 32.677

 

This number is just about right to me. I’ll pass.

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -192 (strong)

BLG first tower @ +126 (moderate)

BLG first blood @ +115 (moderate)**

 

First tower for BLG. I’d take the under towers here but there’s a fair amount of volatility in BLG games and they’re significantly more likely to go over this total overall than Suning who have a ridiculously low sub 8% of games where there have been over 12.5 towers.

 

My Picks:

 

Map Spread: BLG +1.5 maps @ -119 (1.19 units)

Moneyline: BLG +271 (0.5 units)

Map Spread: BLG -1.5 maps @ +722 (0.25 units)

Kill Spread: Map 1 BLG +7.5 kills @ -111 (1.11 units)

Kill Spread: Map 2 BLG +7.5 kills @ -112 (1.12 units)

Kill Spread: Map 3 BLG +7.5 kills @ -125 (1.25 units)

Prop: Map 1 BLG first tower @ +126 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 BLG first tower @ +111 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 3 BLG first tower @ +121 (1 unit)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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