Monday, June 8th Recap

Victory Five vs OMG (Net: -2.32 units)

My biggest question for Victory Five was whether or not they could create in-game opportunities on their own and they answered decisively in game one with a very good 1-3-1 tempo game plan that choked OMG out of the game after jumping out to an early lead. V5 look good. I never thought I’d say that but it was quite impressive and that performance would have beaten a majority of the teams in the LPL not just the struggling OMG. Game two, the botched execution came early from Victory Five and resulted in a loss that made them look a bit like their old selves. Game three was more interesting.  OMG tried to bring the fight to Victory Five, something they’ve sorely been needing to do over the course of 2020. While it was good to see, OMG clearly lacked experience in doing so and looked way out of their comfort zone. A better team would have won that second game.

My mistake in handicapping this game was not putting enough weight on the stylistic considerations of a pace team against a stubbornly passive team like OMG. However, I had questions about Victory Five creating on their own after their first series that have now been answered. A relevant data point.

LGD Gaming vs eStar (Net: -2.0 units)

While there were plenty of hiccups, both teams looked relatively good and very much like themselves in this series overall. Garvey got the start for LGD in game one, was subbed out for game two for Langx, but then eStar also subbed out Xiaobai for the first time since eStar have been a team in exchange for CJJ who hasn’t played a game on stage. It was such a bizarre maneuver. I don’t understand the reasoning, perhaps to get the kid some stage time, or maybe it was a game plan that they had him prepare for Langx this week. Who knows. Anyway Langx kind of bodied CJJ in the second game en route to a victory and took the momentum into game three.

This one felt a little like robbery but these kinds of things happen in the LPL. Unfortunately it was with my biggest moneyline stake so far this season on the line. Frustrating but overall it was good to see both new players, Fenfen and Langx playing very well in their debuts for their new teams. These teams shouldn’t miss a beat which is great news.

Daily Total Net: -4.32 units

Our first real stinker of a day. Sometimes you get blown out by the substitutions but in reality we don’t know for sure if eStar win game two even with Xiaobai so it’s errant thinking to just assume that. All you can do is evaluate your positions, learn, and move onto the next one. My only real mistake today was not factoring the Victory Five style vs OMG style enough but I had my reasons for doing so. Bad days happen. We’ll win out long term.

Onto the next one!

 

LPL Summer 2020

Week 2 – Day 2

 

FunPlus Phoenix -3333 (-1.5 maps @ -417) vs

LNG Esports +1012 (+1.5 maps @ +296, -1.5 maps @ +1395)

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -102 / under -127)

Team Kill Totals: 17.5 / 6.5

Kill Spread: -9.5 @ -128 / +9.5 @ -102

Time Total: 32:00 (over +120 / under -156)

Starting Lineups:

FPX – Khan, Tian, Doinb, Lwx, Crisp

LNG – Chenlun17, Xx, Maple, Light, Duan

Trends:

FPX were 12 – 4 (7 – 9 ATS) as favorites in Spring

FPX were 9 – 2 (6 – 5 ATS) as favorites of -424 or more in Spring

LNG were 2 – 8 (5 – 5 ATS) as underdogs in Spring

LNG were 0 – 2 (1 – 1 ATS) as underdogs of +543 or longer in Spring (spread win vs IG final day)

FPX won the first meeting 2 – 0 as -1136 favorites

 

LNG looked absolutely terrible in their debut against Suning who are looking to be somewhere in the middle of the LPL table in terms of overall quality. They were over-cautious and left a lot of potential plays on the rift. One that sticks out is forcing Suning’s bottom lane to back, seeing another recall, and just standing in front of the dragon afraid to do it. The hesitation allowed Suning to get back to the area and LNG were bullied out .There were other instances of this kind of behavior and unfortunately, similar to OMG, this is a problem this team struggled with last season. Frankly, it looked like LNG, and even Suning to a lesser extent, were nervous in this game. On the bright side, the new coaching staff isn’t drafting all-in late game scaling team compositions anymore but I still think LNG have a long way to go before their passivity can be coached out of them.

FunPlus are one of the class of the LPL, the elite three teams atop the table and a World Championship caliber contender. Historically, FunPlus have not been a team that plays with their food and after a disappointing end to the Mid-Season Cup as well as a shortened Spring playoff run, I’m expecting FunPlus to come out the gates with a statement game here.

LNG not only lack the firepower to hang here but FunPlus are a tremendous tempo team that play at a blistering fast pace even if the kill totals don’t suggest it. You don’t have time to hesitate against FunPlus or any of the elite LPL teams. This is a very likely 2 – 0 and you can take the 2 – 0 prop at -312 instead of the map spread at -417.

I’m going to have a lot of exposure to this game because my numbers say to be, a position I don’t like to be in often if I can help it, but as far as LPL teams go, FPX are a blue chip stock and LNG look like they could potentially be the worst team in the league. If you prefer a lower risk tolerance, cut the map prop and stick to the other wagers, which you could halve.

Other markets:

My Composite Combined Kills per Game (cCKPG) has this kill total at 25.9 kills. My odds-weighted projection, which is an odds-weighted blend of kills per win (KPW) and kills per loss (KPL) composite averages has this total at 24.82  kills. Time-total implied kills (avg of both teams CKPM*implied time total) is 27.37 kills. In a projected underdog win, in this case LNG, 28.6 kills.

The numbers are all over the place in this matchup because LNG tend to roll over and die when they lose but have an above average kill per win for the year. There’s a chance LNG shake off the nerves and play this one a little bit more loosely than they did in the first match but FunPlus tend to play very clean LOL against poor teams, and especially slower paced teams. While game one somewhat got away from FPX the first time these two played, FPX won game two in under 25 minutes. Against OMG, a similar style of team, FunPlus held them to just six kills across their two wins. Take the under kill total in this matchup.

The average game time in the LPL this split is 31:53 but the time total has come in under in 15 out of 20 games and this is our first really lopsided matchup of the season. Heavy favorites tend to win early and decisively in these spots anyway. FunPlus had a 31:47 average game time in the Spring. The only real danger in this play is if FunPlus opt into a split push strategy and don’t get ahead early but I don’t see that happening more often than the odds imply. The under time total is my favorite play of the day even into heavy juice.

FunPlus Phoenix had an average margin of victory (AMOV) of 10.66 kills during the Spring and won 19 of their 27 regular season games by 11 kills or more. LNG had an average margin of defeat of 10.46 kills, losing 15 of their 26 losses by 10 kills or more and 12 of those 15 by 11 kills or more. The numbers suggest some value in the FunPlus kill spreads but given the current champion pool which includes Twisted Fate and Kassadin, it wouldn’t surprise me to see FunPlus split push this game out which tends to result in lower kill totals. Generally speaking, if you like the under, the underdog kill spread is in play in these types of positions with a heavy favorite but the numbers are just outside of range for me having to lay -133 on the LNG +10.5.

My Picks:

Prop: FunPlus 2 – 0 @ -312 (3.12 units)

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 32:00 @ -156 (1.56 units)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 32:00 @ -152 (1.52 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 25.5 @ -130 (1.3 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 25.5 @ -116 (1.16 units)

 

 

Rogue Warriors +352 (+1.5 maps @ +106, -1.5 maps @ +722) vs

Top Esports -526 (-1.5 maps @ -135)

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -127 / -8.5 @ -103

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 16.5

Time Total: 33:00

Starting Lineups:

RW – Crazy, Youdang, Ruby, ZWuji, Ley

TOP – 369, Karsa, Knight, QiuQiu, Yuyanjia

Trends:

TOP were 9 – 4 (5 – 8 ATS) as favorites in Spring

TOP were 2 – 0 (2 – 0 ATS) as favorites with JackeyLove in the lineup in Spring

Rogue Warriors were 6 – 7 (9 – 4 ATS) as underdogs in Spring

Rogue Warriors were 1 – 4 (3 – 2 ATS) as underdogs of +329 or longer in Spring

TOP won the first meeting 2 – 1 in early April as -769 favorites (no JackeyLove)

 

JackeyLove is sidelined with a stomach illness for this match and TOP will be playing their second support QiuQiu at ADC for the series since Photic was relegated to the academy team. Prospect Youdang is also getting his debut start for Rogue Warriors in the jungle.

Typically, a substitution like this is overreacted to and there ends up being value fading the public. Most professional level supports, and players in general, are more than capable of playing multiple roles and a support stepping into the ADC role is a fairly natural transition given that it’s the same lane and the support player knows what he’ll want. QiuQiu has also played ADC professionally before. TOP were a good team without JackeyLove but I can’t help but feel this kills a little momentum.

Rogue Warriors were also one of the best “punch up” underdogs in the Spring, winning nine of their thirteen matches against the spread and six outright as well as a 3 – 2 record ATS as +329 or longer underdogs.

This line opened at a higher number (-885) and has been bet down but given that this is the first game for both of these teams, that Rogue Warriors got to watch film from Mid-Season Cup, and have had this matched highlighted on their calendar. I think they’re a live underdog in this spot. Rogue Warriors play an aggressive and proactive style predicated on high-risk, high-reward plays and that makes them perfect in situations like this. TOP are a world class team no question but the combination of factors at play here and the line make this a nice underdog position.

Other Markets:

My Composite Combined Kills per Game (cCKPG) has this kill total at 29.3 kills. My odds-weighted projection, which is an odds-weighted blend of kills per win (KPW) and kills per loss (KPL) composite averages has this total at 27.44 kills. Time-total implied kills (avg of both teams CKPM*implied time total) is 30.09 kills. In a projected underdog win, in this case Rogue Warriors, 30.27 kills.

Rogue Warriors were one of the bloodiest winners in the world last season averaging 20.22 kills per win. TOP were also one of the bloodiest losers with a 10.05 kill per loss number, second only to Suning. Unders have been crushing but this feels like an excellent spot to play the OVER. The number is fairly low, substitutes tend to create strange games, and these two teams lineup well as an over scenario as it is. The previous meeting had 108 kills in three games. It all adds up.

I’ll be taking a half stake on the under as well primarily sticking to the trend of unders in Summer so far. These teams project to about the 32.5 minute mark so with only the Summer trend in our favor we’ll be half weight.

My Picks:

Spread: Rogue Warriors +1.5 maps @ +106 (2 units)

Moneyline: Rogue Warriors +352 (1 unit)

Spread: Rogue Warriors -1.5 maps @ +722 (0.5 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 25.5 @ -119 (1.19 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 25.5 @ -125 (1.25 units)

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ -192 (0.96 units)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ -189 (0.945 units)

 

I’ll be back tomorrow with picks for Wednesday’s slate as well as an LEC preview!

Leave a Reply