Monday, June 7th Recap
Suning Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (Net: +1.04 units)
Neny had a solid debut performance for Invictus but it’s tough to draw too many conclusions from one series much less one where he had favorable matchups and, in my opinion, his team had better overall drafts in all three games. Still, good on the rookie because Bin is not an easy test by any means.
There were a lot of side lane shenanigans in this one. Suning played a very RNG-esque TF+Nocturne combo beautifully in game one to overcome a hairy early game. The other two games Invictus just controlled for the most part wire-to-wire. Fun series.
FunPlus Phoenix vs Rogue Warriors (no action)
Game one was an absolute stomping. 17:07 might be a recent record for fastest game in a major region, at least domestically. Game two wasn’t much better.
Rogue Warriors still have most of the same problems it seems although I want to give some props to the rookie actually getting a solo kill on Nuguri after a complete dumpstering in game one. Not really much to take away from this series.
Daily Net Total: +1.04 units
LPL Summer 2021
Week One – Day Two
I’ll be getting back into the more detailed data driven posts over the course of the next week once I get a feel for how much of it is going to apply in cases with a lot of roster changes which includes this one.
I’m also steering clear of totals and props because I want to see how the new patch and metagame develop a bit as well as which roster changes are positive and negative.
Oh My God! (OMG) +483 (+1.5 maps @ +158, -1.5 @ +1100)
RareAtom -769 (-1.5 maps @ -204)
Map Moneyline: OMG +310 / RA -435
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -118 / under -110)
Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -116 / -8.5 @ -112
Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 16.5
Time Total: 30:00 (over -122 / under -106)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -290 / +219 (map), -492 / +344 (series), -118 / -107 (-1.5/+1.5 maps)
Suggested Play: OMG +1.5 maps @ +158
OMG – New, AKi, Creme, Able, COLD
RA – Cube, Leyan, FoFo, iBoy, Hang
I’m very bullish on RareAtom in general and think the market typically undervalues them, particularly when facing other top nine teams, however that doesn’t mean to charge blindly into a piss poor deal. As is usually the case, and likely will be very often for the LPL this season in these situations, bettors are going to be overcharged for favorites. If you want to back the favorites you need to do so through alternative means. Sometimes that’s going directly against them by playing the underdogs. Perhaps it’s neutral objective or time unders. It varies team to team but do yourself a favor and don’t just slam favorite map spreads and moneylines blindly it’s a recipe for disaster. Even last season in one of the most dominant season for favorites, a “blind favorite” bettor wagering an equal stake on every single favorite would have been down almost double digits percentage ROI.
RareAtom have roster continuity and they were a very good team last season. They also handedly took care of business against the bottom of the table even if the wins were more methodical in nature rather than just pure stomps like we saw with FPX this morning. For all intents and purposes they SHOULD sweep this match it’s just not worth paying the price for that to happen.
So is OMG worth a play here? Well, new mid laner Creme is almost certainly going to be an upgrade for them as Wuming was one of the worst players at any position in the league last season in terms of statistical performance as well as on film. However, just because he’s replacing somebody that had a bad performance doesn’t mean that he’s automatically an upgrade and even if he is, it might not be a big enough difference to matter. Able we’ve seen a bit of here and there over the course of the past few years in the LDL originally in the RNG system. Again, a lot of the ADC’s tend to be “plug and play” but it becomes more difficult on teams with questionable overall quality.
Generally I think there’s enough of a case to be made to just avoid this match. It wouldn’t surprise me at all for RareAtom to just smash OMG in an unexciting, methodical manner. It also wouldn’t surprise me to see OMG come out the gates with something spicy. The current metagame is full of high volatility power picks like Gwen and Viego who are not only premium picks in the meta but capable of singlehandedly running an entire game over regardless of their surroundings. It’s a volatile environment with all these melee carries running around. It’s really easy to lose to powerful picks like this off of one bad skirmish and a snowball. If I had to take a position here it’d be a light play on the OMG +1.5 maps and maybe a sprinkle on the moneyline.
It’s worth noting that RareAtom were a TERRIBLE against the kill spread team as favorites in Spring covering in just 6 out of 21 attempts with an average spread of -6.9 kills. OMG were 13 out of 34 in games as underdogs with an average spread of +8.0. That’s how I’d play the sides in this contest but I’d wait to do so until this moves even more heavily in favor of RA and maybe you can get some cheap +9.5s.
(if this gets any heavier on RA then I’ll update this post and take some OMG kill spreads/+1.5 maps)
EDward Gaming -625 (-1.5 maps @ -169, +1.5 @ -3333)
BiliBili Gaming +414 (+1.5 maps @ +132, -1.5 @ +1100)
Map Moneyline: EDG -435 / BLG +305
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -122 / under -105)
Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -120 / +8.5 @ -108
Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 7.5
Time Total: 31:00 (over -104 / under -125)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -267 / +201 (map), -424 / +304 (series), -106 / -118 (-1.5/+1.5 maps)
Suggested Play: BiliBili +1.5 maps @ +132
EDG – Flandre, Jiejie, Scout, Viper, Meiko
BLG – Biubiu, Weiwei, Zeka, Aiming, ppgod
I like the moves BiliBili made here. As big a fan as I was of Meteor’s game I do think Weiwei is strictly an upgrade. I feel similarly about ppgod over Mark/Jwei. BiliBili looked like a great roster to me going into the Spring season and they just didn’t end up being a good team. There were a lot of problems all around but I had faith in the players. They’ve made two pretty big upgrades and two upgrades that fit in, stylistically, to what they looked like during the 2020 season, a team that wants to be an uptempo, momentum-centric team. They have even better tools to do that this time around and a full offseason with Coach Kim as well. BiliBili will almost certainly be a much improved team in Summer it’s simply a matter of just how improved. I’m bullish on this roster.
EDG are one of the best teams in the LPL but again this is simply too expensive a price to pay especially on day one. Unlike OMG, a roster I’m fairly cold on altogether (pun intended), BiliBili have the individual talent to hang here and, speculating a bit, look to be the type of roster to play the type of game that can just snowball a game quickly which is what I think is going to be significantly better in the current state of the game. I tend to favor those types of teams as underdogs anyway. I tend to favor those types of teams in general because it’s easier to learn how to close a game from ahead than to learn to engineer leads to begin with. The current metagame strongly supports very VERY volatile snowballing champions as I’ve already mentioned and I think the way EDG and to a lesser extent RNG and some others could have suboptimal going into Summer. (I’m not saying they’ll be worse just that we might not see them pick up as many free wins)
I’m going to take a shot on BiliBili here. Even by their abysmal performance in the model last season, it’s still showing them as a solid value play here and there’s really no better time to back the dogs than in the first days of the season.
Map Spread: BiliBili +1.5 maps @ +132 (2 units)
Moneyline: BiliBili +414 (1 unit)
Map Spread: BiliBili -1.5 maps @ +1100 (0.5 units)
I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.
Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL
(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)