Monday, June 28th Recap

 

Victory Five vs Rogue Warriors (no action)

Well, the Warriors finally got one. It’s been a long time so be happy for them.

That said… nobody really won this series. It wasn’t who was better as much as who was worse. It’s looking like these are probably the two worst teams in the league and it will likely stay that way.

OMG vs ThunderTalk (Net: -4.62 units)

Game one of this series was rather competitive and it was looking like TT were well on their way to a victory on the back of Lulu+Kogmaw but Langx was caught prepping a wave before a baron and the script flipped. Small mistake cost them the game.

Game two was, to me at least, clearly some tilt setting in for the TT squad as things got really out of hand really early and it went from bad to worse in an eventual OMG stomping.

Little bit of a rough beat on this one but this is TT to at… T… damn it…. They have such strong openings sometimes and there’s usually a critical error at some point that ends up costing them their lead and the game.

 

LPL Net Total: -4.62 units

 

Daily Net Total: -4.62 units

 

—-

 

LPL Summer 2021

Week Four – Day Two

 

I meant to post this update yesterday but here are the model’s Power Ratings after three weeks (does not include Monday)

 

After Week 3
Team Power # Rank
FunPlus 1.407571222 1
EDG 1.292486875 2
LNG 0.7258981567 3
Vici (RareAtom) 0.610634898 4
LGD 0.3115091767 5
Invictus 0.2699067106 6
WE 0.243995664 7
TOP 0.2042902436 8
BiliBili 0.07315193373 9
JDG 0.02519154742 10
OMG -0.08656356795 11
Suning -0.2287069394 12
eStar (UltraPrime) -0.3381273371 13
Dominus (TT) -0.4888560643 14
Royal Never GU -0.5056949001 15
Victory Five -1.50990459 16
Rogue Warriors -2.006783029 17

 

Things are still shaking themselves out and there is a handful of teams, most noticeably RNG that need more matches to really settle into where they belong but for the teams that have played a handful of matches this is more or less calcifying into what we’ve seen so far.


 

Ultra Prime +1162 (+1.5 maps @ +282, -1.5 @ +2800)

vs

EDward Gaming -5000 (-1.5 maps @ -400)

 

Map Moneyline: UP +850 / EDG -2000

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: +11.5 @ -114 / -11.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 6.5 / 18.5

Time Total: 29:00 (over -125 / under -103)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  +282 / -390 (map), +498 / -831 (series), +126 / -163 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: UP +1.5 maps and map moneylines (better value than series moneyline)

Starters:

UP – Zs, H4cker, Xiaocaobao, Smlz, ShiauC

EDG – Flandre, Jiejie, Scout, Viper, Meiko

League Rank EDG Tale of the Tape eStar League Rank
3.0 486.8 Gold Diff @ 10 min 27.1 8.0
1.0 1170.7 Gold Diff @ 15 min 124.0 7.0
1.0 1600.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min 362.5 8.0
28.7 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 21.9
4.0 119.2 Gold Diff / min first 20 -7.9 8.0
2.0 475.8 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 52.7 14.0
3.0 1865.3 Gold /min (GPM) 1746.6 13.0
89.8 Gold / min vs Avg -28.9
2.0 226.5 Gold Diff / min -125.5 14.0
2.0 3.2 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -1.7 14.0
2.0 1635.7 Kill Agnostic GPM 1572.0 13.0
2.0 109.8 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -61.3 13.0
16.0 1886.2 GPM in wins 1931.7 10.0
14.0 262.2 Gold Diff per min in wins 316.1 9.0
11.0 1614.1 GPM in losses 1684.8 3.0
3.0 -202.5 Gold Diff per min in losses -272.8 6.0
238.3 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -113.7
16.0 -51.6 Win-Adjusted GPM -6.1 10.0
14.0 -51.1 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 2.8 9.0
2.0 68.4 Dragon Control % 53.7 6.0
2.0 61.5 Herald Control % 41.7 15.0
1.0 73.7 Baron Control % 35.3 14.0
7.0 Quality Wins? 1.0
58.3 % of wins as Quality 33.3

 

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 58.870%
2 1 27.402%
1 2 8.312%
0 2 5.416%
(Series Win): 86.272%

EDG are measuring better in most performance metrics than their Spring iteration and sure enough they’re atop the standings but that doesn’t necessarily mean this team is infallible. Their overall economy might be one of the strongest in the league but they’re not exactly destroying their competition in victories, not that it’s all about that. Generally their overall economy when compared to other world class teams from previous years and even the Spring season is much lower than we normally see.

This does speak to a larger trend which is that economy performance has been down overall across the globe primarily due to the volatility of the game in its current environment. In the past the truly elite teams across the glove would frequently average in the mid to high 1900’s or 2000’s in raw gold per minute and have a kill agnostic gold per minute somewhere in the high 1600’s or 1700’s  We’re simply not seeing that in any league right now so it’s important that we adjust for context.

The reason I’m saying all of this is that while EDG look like one of, if not the best team in the world at the moment, they’re no 2020 DAMWON or 2019 G2 or anything like that. Obviously their league is highly competitive which contributes to this but this isn’t a team that is airtight on the performance metrics sheet. The irony with EDG is that they’re very far along the Korean approach to the game spectrum. They’re patient, disciplined, their macro is simple and logically thought out, and they don’t take dumb fights. The smartest team in the room is atop the table, who knew… It does help to have the players that they do but this is an incredibly well coached team and that’s what makes them better than a lot of their numbers.

All that said…. This is a dog or nothing spot. I keep saying that at some point EDG is going to have a let down series or even just a single game. It hasn’t really happened yet but these numbers are getting to the point where you simply can’t back EDG without incurring a massive fee to do so. Close your nose and take the UltraPrime side here. They’re actually not that bad an early game team and all it would take is a snowball’d lead with an Akali or something of the like to steal a game here.

The model also flagged the kill total overs as having a substantial edge on the market price and my projections make this total 27.499 kills. It also flagged the time total over as a double digit edge. The time total is what I’m going to opt for although you could justify a position on both. This generally fits the EDG game script of slow and steady, keep the game close rather than taking risks and blowing out a huge lead.

My Picks:

Map Moneyline: Map 1 UltraPrime +850 (0.5 units)

Map Moneyline: Map 2 UltraPrime +850 (0.5 units)

Kill Spread (alt): Map 1 UltraPrime +10.5 kills @ +112 (1 unit)

Kill Spread (alt): Map 2 UltraPrime +10.5 kills @ +116 (1 unit)

Time Total: Map 1 OVER 29:00 @ -125 (1.25 units)

Time Total: Map 2 OVER 29:00 @ -125 (1.25 units)

 

 

 


 

LGD Gaming -132 (-1.5 maps @ +218, +1.5 @ -417)

vs

Invictus Gaming +104 (+1.5 maps @ -294, -1.5 @ +298)

 

Map Moneyline: LGD -139 / IG +109

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: -1.5 @ -109 / +1.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -175 / under +133)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  -116 / -109 (map), -118 / -108 (series), +247 / -340 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: Invictus moneyline

Starters:

LGD – Fearness, Shad0w, Xiye, Kramer, Mark

IG – Neny, XUN, Rookie, Wink, Lucas

League Rank LGD Tale of the Tape Invictus League Rank
6.0 87.5 Gold Diff @ 10 min -16.0 10.0
3.0 693.8 Gold Diff @ 15 min -452.3 13.0
10.0 962.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -850.0 15.0
-0.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 27.5
11.0 -34.7 Gold Diff / min first 20 28.4 5.0
10.0 321.4 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 236.8 6.0
10.0 1780.7 Gold /min (GPM) 1821.7 4.0
5.1 Gold / min vs Avg 46.2
11.0 -10.2 Gold Diff / min 43.6 7.0
11.0 -0.2 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.6 7.0
12.0 1580.2 Kill Agnostic GPM 1614.4 5.0
10.0 -16.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 32.3 8.0
12.0 1908.8 GPM in wins 2003.5 2.0
15.0 255.8 Gold Diff per min in wins 383.3 3.0
5.0 1652.5 GPM in losses 1639.9 7.0
7.0 -276.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -296.1 9.0
1.6 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 55.5
12.0 -29.0 Win-Adjusted GPM 65.7 2.0
15.0 -57.6 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 70.0 3.0
10.0 48.6 Dragon Control % 63.4 3.0
8.0 53.1 Herald Control % 58.3 3.0
9.0 55.0 Baron Control % 68.4 3.0
3.0 Quality Wins? 10.0
37.5 % of wins as Quality 66.7

 

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 25.771%
2 1 25.377%
1 2 24.612%
0 2 24.241%
(Series Win): 51.147%

Invictus are going back to Wink and Lucas for this one as they continue to try to figure out a solution to this bottom lane issue. LGD will keep rolling with Fearness who has been fine, neither good nor bad.

One of the bigger regression candidates nominated by the model is Invictus. I’m not hugely bullish on them until they can figure this bottom lane issue out but the fact of the matter is that they’ve produced much more consistent performances than LGD and that’s with all of the bottom lane hubbub. They have better overall economy, significantly better kill agnostic and adjusted economy metrics, and just about everything about IG’s play suggests that they should probably have a better record than they do.

Again, LGD remain way overhyped. An improved team doesn’t mean they’re necessarily a good team and I think this is a case of the shiny new toy that we frequently see with teams that have an action packed off season. Invictus have been the better team even with the bottom side of the map having it’s issues. I This is a slam dunk position to me and I like it quite a bit more than the model does. I also like the kill total over.

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: Invictus +104 (2 units)

Map Spread: Invictus -1.5 maps @ +298 (1 unit)

Kill Total (alt): Map 1 OVER 26.5 @ +101 (1 unit)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 26.5 @ -104 (1.04 units)

Kill Total (alt): Map 3 OVER 26.5 @ +101 (1 unit)

 

 

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and you can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

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