Monday, June 21st Recap

 

Rogue Warriors vs OMG (no action)

This one wasn’t particularly close. OMG took care of business.

I was not high on this team coming into the season but in my pre-season roster change breakdown I mentioned “Wuming was the worst rated mid laner in my individual player model as well as the eye test so I think if Creme can be even a moderate upgrade there’s a chance OMG join that “best of the rest” tier with LNG, BiliBili, and maybe LGD but I think that’s being optimistic.” Well he’s been far more than a moderate upgrade. Creme has straight up been one of the best individual players in the entire league so far this season. OMG look like they’ve found something for us to be excited about after all of these years. They’re feeling it too with a few outstanding series to open the season.

Invictus Gaming vs UltraPrime (Net: +2.0 units)

Invictus probably should have lost this first game and got away with one. The second one looked closer than it actually was but they did not control this wire-to-wire like they probably should have and it ended up being an exciting, albeit sloppy matchup.

I was expecting more from Invictus here but the bottom lane didn’t feed and the top trio did eventually carry and that’s all we were looking for in this change. The execution wasn’t clean at all which is concerning given the level of competition but this could be a step in the right direction for Invictus who I think SHOULD improve. Neny has really been a tremendous addition to this team. I’m not sure what’s going on with TheShy but they actually have a difficult decision ahead of them regarding that situation.

 

 

LPL Net Total: +2.0 units

 

Daily Net Total: +2.0 units

 


 

LPL Summer 2021

Week Three – Day Two

 

 

Before diving into Tuesday’s slate I wanted to share some bigger picture trend data for the LPL through two weeks (plus a day).

LPL Spring Kill Spread Winner? Kill Total Winner? Time Total Winner? FAV Team Total UND Team Total
Over / Fav 184 171 126 177 174
Under / Dog 170 184 227 177 180
Average 6.57 25.87 31.76 15.67 9.87
Total Games
354

 

 

LPL Summer Kill Spread Winner? Kill Total Winner? Time Total Winner? FAV Team Total UND Team Total Dragons 4.5 Winner? Towers 11.5 Winner?
Over / Fav 34 40 40 35 44 38 37
Under / Dog 43 37 37 42 33 39 40
Average 7.72 25.09 30.31 15.81 8.66
Total Games
77

 

 

Underdogs have been doing a better job of covering thus far, primarily due to some underperforming favorites and over performing underdogs (LNG, OMG, etc).

Without any Spring priors included, just looking at Summer data so far the model power rankings are as follows.

We don’t have that much data quite yet, in the grand scheme of things, and for the purposes of handicapping I’m still including some weight on Spring priors into my numbers but we’ll be shifting more weight toward the Summer data so far and keeping a close eye on where we think teams are due for regression, positive or negative.

Regarding derivatives such as kills, time totals, neutrals, etc. I’ll be starting to factor in some of what we’ve seen so far but I still prefer to wait on the data to really give us a more accurate picture. I’ll pick my spots where it’s obvious but I was able to grind out a big edge even toward the end of last season on kills and neutrals by attacking script/style along with the numbers so I don’t think those will be “so sharp by then” that we lose much value. Willing to wait.


LNG Esports -2500 (-1.5 maps @ -312)

vs

ThunderTalk (TT) Gaming +876 (+1.5 maps @ +229, -1.5 @ +2600)

 

Map Moneyline: LNG -1111 / TT +598

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -112 / under -115)

Kill Spread: -10.5 @ -109 / +10.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 18.5 / 6.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over +102 / under -132)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  -440 / +307 (map), -1044 / +560 (series), -182 / +141 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: TT +1.5 maps

Starters:

LNG – Ale, Tarzan, Icon, Light, Iwandy

TT – Langx, Xiaopeng, Ye, SamD, Patch

LNG Tale of the Tape TT
50.0 Gold Diff @ 10 min –387.5
670.0 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1950.0
2380.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min –3687.5
53.8 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -56.6
119.0 Gold Diff / min first 20 -184.4
673.7 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -43.8
1912.5 Gold /min (GPM) 1608.1
135.4 Gold / min vs Avg -169.1
259.2 Gold Diff / min -442.7
3.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -6.1
1654.7 Kill Agnostic GPM 1496.5
109.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -245.0
1980.6 GPM in wins
370.0 Gold Diff per min in wins
1640.1 GPM in losses 1608.1
-184.0 Gold Diff per min in losses -442.7
267.1 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -434.8
56.1 Dragon Control % 33.3
50.0 Herald Control % 53.3
71.4 Baron Control % 22.2

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 61.527%
2 1 26.532%
1 2 7.293%
0 2 4.649%
(Series Win): 88.058%

So obviously LNG are red hot. That’s not secret. ThunderTalk are not. Also not a secret. Rocket science I know…

Realistically this is a dog or nothing situation and I’m going to take a piece of ThunderTalk here. So often with these white hot teams they’ll cool off at some point. I’m in no way saying “this team is overperforming” or anything like that, LNG have been very good this split but this is a CLASSIC “let down” spot. LNG have just come off back-to-back-to-back wins against top nine teams after a season where they won just a single series against that caliber all split. TT have looked underwhelming despite having a few talented players on this roster. Verdict is still out on whether or not this is dumpster fire tier or actual professional League of Legends team.

Hold your nose and take the dogs. I’m also going to take the first herald for TT since they seem to have the right idea in prioritizing that in most games.

 

My Picks:

Map Spread: TT +1.5 maps @ +233 (1 unit)

Moneyline: TT +876 (0.25 units)

Map Spread: TT -1.5 maps @ +2600 (0.1 units)

Prop: Map 1 TT first herald @ +170 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 TT first herald @ +197 (1 unit)

 

 


 

 

RareAtom +134 (+1.5 maps @ -213, -1.5 @ +410)

vs

TOP Esports -179 (-1.5 maps @ +162, +1.5 @ -625)

 

 

Map Moneyline: RA +123 / TOP -154)

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -106 / under -122)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -109 / -4.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over +101 / under -130)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  -134 / +108 (map), -152 / +115 (series), -275 / +204 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: RA series moneyline, -1.5 maps

Starters:

RA – Cube, Leyan, FoFo, iBoy, Hang

TOP – Qingtian, Karsa, Knight, JackeyLove, Zhuo

 

TOP Tale of the Tape RA
-300.0 Gold Diff @ 10 min 177.78
-50 Gold Diff @ 15 min 588.89
1075.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min 1066.67
75.3 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 7.0
53.8 Gold Diff / min first 20 53.3
368.1 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 312.5
1812.8 Gold /min (GPM) 1795.4
35.6 Gold / min vs Avg 18.2
118.4 Gold Diff / min 98.6
1.5 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.4
1590.6 Kill Agnostic GPM 1614.0
93.5 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 81.7
2046.4 GPM in wins 1913.7
458.5 Gold Diff per min in wins 325.3
1579.2 GPM in losses 1558.8
-221.8 Gold Diff per min in losses -354.7
126.3 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 106.5
62.5 Dragon Control % 53.8
37.5 Herald Control % 64.7
40.0 Baron Control % 54.5

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
0 2 29.804%
1 2 27.066%
2 1 22.512%
2 0 20.618%
(Series Win): 43.130%

I think this is a closer matchup than the model does, more like a 50/50. TOP Esports and a few of the other “big dogs” from Spring have not looked in good form to start the Summer and have even gone as far as to be arrogant at times. That said, we’ve only seen two series from TOP ESports with Qingtian in the top lane. It’s been a mixed bag, good at times, underwhelming at others. RareAtom have more or less continued along the same track that they were in Spring, a mostly solid fundamental team with great players in all three lanes.

I actually think RareAtom should be slightly favored here. Not by quite as much as the model does as I think TOP are probably better than we’ve seen so far and should continue to improve with Qingtian getting acclimated but I think RareAtom have continuity, have looked solid thus far, and TOP are still figuring things out. Make this a coin flip weighted toward RareAtom, maybe a 52-48 or something along those lines. I’ll take the underdogs.

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: RareAtom +134 (1 unit)

Map Spread: RareAtom -1.5 maps @ +410 (0.5 units)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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