Monday, June 14th Recap
Invictus Gaming vs OMG (Net: -3.44 units)
Invictus have developed a bit of a reputation as team for losing these kinds of games over the years but in the past three splits that hasn’t been the case very often. In fact, they’ve performed better against the bottom teams by measurables than most of the top teams. IG played a terrible series here. I thought OMG, Cold in particular, had a great series playing at or near their ceiling but this was primarily on Invictus shooting themselves in the foot. The Wink and Lucas bottom lane continues to be a liability but it’s entirely of their own doing. They’re a lot like the version of Carzzy and Kaiser when they’re not seeing the map well, they take all-in’s at the worst times and with reckless abandon. It’s losing Invictus so many games for absolutely no reason and it’s frustrating.
I want to give OMG props but it was tough watching Invictus self-destruct like this. The Inverse Confidence Model strikes again…
RareAtom vs EDward Gaming (Net: -3.41 units)
EDG played by far their best games of the Summer split so far and just completely smashed RA in this series. It helps that I thought they won the first draft so hard that this game was more or less over before it started. Senna + Karma, Wukong, Udyr, all extremely powerful picks right now and they got it all.
I don’t know if Cube is reluctant to play Gwen or if he just thinks he can beat it but it’s very strange. That’s the kind of champion that’s right in his wheel house. Something to keep an eye on. EDG have a very good read and are in the best form they’ve been all of 2021 right now, probably want to stay out of the way of this freight train until they cool off.
LPL Total: -6.85 units
Daily Net Total: -6.85 units
I’ve had an abysmal start to the season. It’s actually been my worst 14-day run (not even 14 days comically enough) since early in 2020.
Anyone that’s been there know’s it sucks but that it’s just part of the game. At some point you make adjustments for impurities in your system but I honestly think I’ve just run bad overall this split. It’s impressive how frequently I’ve had the exact wrong favorites and underdogs so far and that’s just not going to keep up. There were two bets so far this season that I wish I’d had back (both in the LCS coincidentally). The rest I’d make again today without question. Sometimes you catch the tail end of variance and that’s why it’s critical to have good bankroll management. This opening two weeks have managed to eat almost 38% of my Spring and MSI profits. That’s a tough pill to swallow but all you can do is evaluate your process, make adjustments where necessary, and keep grinding. You can’t overcompensate for “feeling bad” or get timid.
On to tomorrow…
LPL Summer 2021
Week Two – Day Two
Rogue Warriors +184 (+1.5 maps @ -185, -1.5 @ +507)
UltraPrime -244 (-1.5 maps @ +139, +1.5 @ -833)
Map Moneyline: RW +139 / UP -179
Kill Total: 26.5 (over -105 / under -123)
Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -104 / -5.5 @ -125
Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 14.5
Time Total: 31:00 (over -130 / under +100)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +100 / -127 (map), +105 / -135 (series), -307 / +219 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)
Model Suggested Play: Rogue Warriors series moneyline
RW – 8917, icecoKe, Forge, ZWuji, QiuQiu
UP – Zs, H4cker, Irma, Smlz, ShiauC
(Full 2021 includes playoffs and Summer so far)
Well this is an ugly one…
So we’ve only seen one series from Rogue Warriors which was against FPX and lasted less than 40 minutes total for two games. Ultra Prime put up a fight against FPX playing a close game one and actually taking game two and looked pretty good in the process. UP also played LGD fairly close in the first of their two game series but ultimately fell 0-2.
This is a difficult one. My gut tells me that Rogue Warriors are still just terrible and UltraPrime have shown improvement over their second half of Spring selves. The question is Rogue Warriors very easily could have improved and just caught a brutal matchup with FPX for their first match and could catch us off guard here. The model likes Rogue Warriors based almost entirely on priors which is the sample size we have to work with early in the season like this. In short, these were two of the worst teams and neither is that much better than the other. I happen to think last season’s Rogue Warriors were a tier below even the other bottom teams as evidenced by their economic performance even adjusted for wins/losses which was the worst in the league still.
I do think these lineup changes are a slight boost for RW. QiuQiu has shown to be a competent, LPL caliber support while Kaixuan really hasn’t impressed me even once since joining the league last split. Verdict is still out on icecoKe and 8917 but I’m not optimistic.
Typically I don’t take a very bullish stance in these bottom half matches but UP are a better team based not only what we saw last season but they look improved even from that level in their first two matches. They’re decisive, confident, and seem to be enabling ShiauC much more than they were in Spring. Rogue Warriors could very well be improved and it was masked by that FPX matchup but I’m willing to pay to find out.
Moneyline: UltraPrime -244 (2.44 units)
Map Spread: UltraPrime -1.5 maps @ +139 (0.5 units)
LNG Esports +309 (+1.5 maps @ -105, -1.5 @ +800)
JD Gaming -435 (-1.5 maps @ -120, +1.5 @ -2000)
Map Moneyline: LNG +212 / JDG -286
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -110 / under -118)
Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -116 / -7.5 @ -112
Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 15.5
Time Total: 31:00 (over +103 / under -133)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +103 / -131 (map), +112 / -141 (series), -288 / +213 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)
Model Suggested Play: LNG
LNG – Ale, Tarzan, Icon, Light, Iwandy
JDG – Zoom, Kanavi, Yagao, LokeN, LvMao
(Full 2021 includes playoffs and Summer so far)
So there’s a few things to unpack here. First, the model likes LNG a lot because their “averages” look pretty good from whooping on the bad teams. They’re extremely bad when you filter their performance to just against the top nine teams in the LPL. We discussed this during playoffs and the pre-season. Now, is there a chance that they take a step forward this season? Sure, but I’m not trying to predict the future, I’m evaluating what I’ve seen so far. LNG look pretty good but far from flawless as they’ve made more than a few macro mistakes that other teams simply haven’t punished.
JDG looked to be in the best form of the season and that includes Spring. Now, they’ve faced TOP Esports with a new top laner and ThunderTalk for their opening matches but three of these four games graded in the top 8 individual game performances of 2021 in my game grading system. I had metagame concerns for this team coming into this season but what I failed to realize is just how assassin heavy the mid lane pool would be. I thought we’d be more balanced but it’s heavily tilted toward a lot of champions that Yagao is adept on like Leblanc.
Generally, JDG were overrated during the Spring split and did not have great metrics performances against the top teams earning most of their numbers in a similar fashion to LNG by smashing bad teams but I think they look the best that they have all year early in the Summer season and this is going to be a noticeable step up in competition for LNG. Going against the model and backing JDG here.
Moneyline: JDG -435 (4.35 units)
Map Spread: JDG -1.5 maps @ -122 (0.66 units)
I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.
Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL
(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)