Monday, July 26th Recap

 

LPL matches were postponed Monday.

 


LPL Summer 2021

Week Eight – Day Two

 

LPL Through Week 7
Team Power # Rank
FunPlus 1.26653102 1
EDG 0.9146670609 2
WE 0.8952260493 3
Royal Never GU 0.7833463678 4
TOP 0.7029810368 5
Vici 0.6209676781 6
Invictus 0.3611717767 7
LNG 0.2041833598 8
Suning 0.1763003533 9
BiliBili 0.1101794107 10
JDG 0.01039882836 11
LGD -0.4643594129 12
OMG -0.5427396002 13
Dominus -0.8946590512 14
eStar -1.121004441 15
Rogue Warriors -1.176524412 16
Victory Five -1.846666025 17

 

 


 

TOP Esports -357 (-1.5 maps @ -103)

vs

Invictus Gaming +261 (+1.5 maps @ -123, -1.5 @ +650)

 

Map Moneyline: TOP -263 / IG +200

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -109 / under -119)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -108 / +6.5 @ -122

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -127 / under -103)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -143 / +113 (map), -161 / +127 (series), +193 / -254 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: Invictus series moneyline, +1.5 maps, -1.5 maps (very strong, double digit edge)

Starters:

TOP – Qingtian, Karsa, Knight, JackeyLove, Yuyanjia

IG – TheShy, XUN, Rookie, Wink, Lucas

 

Trends
TOP as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) IG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 6 4 -1101 Matches as Underdogs 2 5 +190
Against Map Spread 4 6 +16 Against Map Spread 2 5 -161
Against Kill Spread 11 13 6.0 Against Kill Spread 7 8 +6
Kill Totals 14 10 26.40 Kill Totals 6 9 26.21
Team Kill Totals 11 13 15.60 Team Kill Totals 7 8 10.79
Game Time Totals 12 12 30.5 Game Time Totals 7 8 30.57
Dragons over 4.5 10 14 Dragons over 4.5 4 11
Towers over 11.5 13 11 Towers over 11.5 7 8

 

 

League Rank TOP Tale of the Tape Invictus League Rank
5 320.4 Gold Diff @ 10 min -284.4 11
8 71.1 Gold Diff @ 15 min 171.3 7
6 108.6 Gold Diff @ 20 min 362.5 9
27.8 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 4.8
7 25.6 Gold Diff / min first 20 -13.5 8
1 454.0 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 421.9 4
4 1859.1 Gold /min (GPM) 1806.3 10
71.0 Gold / min vs Avg 18.2
3 127.8 Gold Diff / min -9.7 11
3 1.7 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.2 11
3 1636.4 Kill Agnostic GPM 1623.2 7
4 74.2 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 11.2 11
5 1985.2 GPM in wins 1994.4 3
7 348.5 Gold Diff per min in wins 333.4 10
6 1657.3 GPM in losses 1661.6 3
1 -225.4 Gold Diff per min in losses -273.7 3
133.4 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -4.1
5 33.9 Win-Adjusted GPM 43.1 3
7 24.3 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 9.2 10
5 55.3 Dragon Control % 57.0 3
6 55.8 Herald Control % 65.2 1
1 64.9 Baron Control % 58.6 5
13.0 Quality Wins? 4.0
81.3 % of wins as Quality 40.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 31.218%
2 1 27.551%
1 2 21.759%
0 2 19.472%
(Series Win): 58.769%

 

 

Above was the lines going into the match before it was postponed this weekend. It’s compressed quite a bit, as it should.

Look, the deal with this match is this. Invictus, as frustrating as they are as a team, are just way better than their record and the books are essentially using a modified elo model. This is a “must win” for Invictus who sit at 4-7 match score. They have a ton of ground to make up if they want to get into the playoffs. They’re going to throw the kitchen sink at this match.

That’s not to say TOP aren’t going to be motivated as well as they’re still live to pick up a bye or two as they too have five matches remaining. TOP have been the better team but they’ve been far from perfect themselves and stylistically this is a challenging matchup for them. TOP have been a more “lane kingdom” and scaling style of team this season than they’ve been for the past little while not that they’re unable to do otherwise. I’d assume this is in part to bring Qingtian into the fold more smoothly. TOP can do both but that’s their default. Other than the volatile bottom lanes on both sides of this matchup, I actually think there’s a reasonable case to be made that Invictus and TOP are evenly matched elsewhere and if TOP are just going to try to “lane kingdom” this match it’s essentially a slightly weighted 50/50 and not deserving of this ridiculous moneyline price.

I’m not quite as bullish as the model is on Invictus but it’s rather telling that their underlying numbers remain as strong as they are even though they’re five games under .500. Look at the other teams with that sort of win rate across the world and tell me how many of them have this sort of performance level. Admittedly, part of IG’s problem is tying it all together but this number is just straight up disrespectful and this should be a competitive series that they throw the kitchen sink at.

Comedy Narrative: JackeyLove power of friendship feeds a game to Invictus… listen to the podcast…

So I’ll be on Invictus but refraining from the nice edge on first tower at +127 because I’d be double dipping. Instead I’m looking to the dragon total under. Invictus win AND lose incredibly quickly and both of these teams close games out very efficiently. We’ve also seen a trend toward unders and dragons under 4.5 in recent weeks with more explosive gold leads from the tier two tower gold change and a focus more so on heralds. Less focus on stacking dragons, more explosive opening fifteen minute sequences, bigger gold differentials, all lead to lots of games going under 4.5 dragons. As a matter of fact, since 11.13 hit, it’s been 36-67 overs-unders on dragons.

My Picks:

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -139 (1.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -139 (1.5 units)

Map Spread: Invictus +1.5 maps @ -123 (2.46 units)

Moneyline: Invictus +261 (1 unit)

Map Spread: Invictus -1.5 maps @ +650 (0.5 units)

 

 


 

Suning Gaming -2500 (-1.5 maps @ -312)

vs

Victory Five +911 (+1.5 maps @ +232, -1.5 @ +1900)

 

Map Moneyline: SN -833 / V5 +501

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: -9.5 @ -125 / +9.5 @ -104

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 6.5

Time Total: 29:00 (over -115 / under -112)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -398 / +285 (map), -857 / +506 (series), -164 / +129 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: Victory Five +1.5 maps

Starters:

SN – Bin, SofM, Angel, Huanfeng, ON

V5 – Aliez, Pzx, Uniboy, Kepler, Reheal

Trends
SN as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) V5 as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 4 4 -362 Matches as Underdogs 0 11 +622
Against Map Spread 3 5 +69 Against Map Spread 2 9 +103
Against Kill Spread 8 13 6.5 Against Kill Spread 10 14 +9
Kill Totals 9 12 25.25 Kill Totals 9 15 25.77
Team Kill Totals 9 12 15.00 Team Kill Totals 8 16 8.32
Game Time Totals 13 8 30.5 Game Time Totals 11 13 29.73
Dragons over 4.5 10 11 Dragons over 4.5 9 15
Towers over 11.5 10 11 Towers over 11.5 10 14

 

League Rank Suning Tale of the Tape Victory Five League Rank
7 90.3 Gold Diff @ 10 min -1859.4 17
6 192.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1096.1 14
8 612.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -305.7 17
-5.9 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -109.5
11 25.4 Gold Diff / min first 20 -193.5 17
7 386.0 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 56.8 13
9 1810.8 Gold /min (GPM) 1597.4 17
22.7 Gold / min vs Avg -190.7
9 59.4 Gold Diff / min -337.3 17
9 0.8 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -4.8 17
8 1621.8 Kill Agnostic GPM 1489.8 17
10 21.8 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -202.1 17
13 1929.5 GPM in wins 2004.0 1
14 292.0 Gold Diff per min in wins 425.4 1
4 1660.5 GPM in losses 1563.6 17
2 -235.2 Gold Diff per min in losses -400.8 16
65.0 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -331.7
13 -21.8 Win-Adjusted GPM 52.8 1
14 -32.2 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 101.2 1
10 51.3 Dragon Control % 30.3 17
10 47.8 Herald Control % 38.5 15
13 50.0 Baron Control % 15.6 17
11.0 Quality Wins? 2.0
57.9 % of wins as Quality 100.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 59.233%
2 1 27.291%
1 2 8.169%
0 2 5.307%
(Series Win): 86.524%

 

V5 finally picked up a game after a long drought but this team still just straight up sucks. This is one of those situations where I’m not even going to bother with “holding my nose” and backing the dog. Suning should roll this it’s just a matter of how we want to attack that angle. I think the best way to do it is the aforementioned under dragons despite it being a -EV play according to the model in this situation.

If you’re interested in the underdogs, first blood at anything around +120 is a nice price, first herald at +180 is also decent for the dogs and map one kill spreads are typically when you want to play them.

My Picks:

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -192 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -192 (1 unit)

 

 


 

Rogue Warriors +203 (+1.5 maps @ -152, -1.5 @ +523)

vs

LNG Esports -270 (-1.5 maps @ +118, +1.5 @ -909)

 

Map Moneyline: RW +171 / LNG -222

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -108 / -5.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -127 / under -103)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +234 / -316 (map), +378 / -570 (series), +101 / -129 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: LNG series moneyline and -1.5 maps (strong)

Starters:

RW – Zdz, Xiaohao, Forge, Betty, QiuQiu

LNG – Ale, Tarzan, Icon, Light, Iwandy

Trends
LNG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) RW as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 5 3 -649 Matches as Underdogs 4 8 +651
Against Map Spread 2 6 +26 Against Map Spread 6 6 +123
Against Kill Spread 9 12 6.1 Against Kill Spread 16 13 +9
Kill Totals 8 13 25.25 Kill Totals 14 15 25.50
Team Kill Totals 9 12 15.50 Team Kill Totals 17 12 8.17
Game Time Totals 10 11 30.6 Game Time Totals 14 15 29.50
Dragons over 4.5 5 16 Dragons over 4.5 12 17
Towers over 11.5 8 13 Towers over 11.5 8 21

 

 

League Rank LNG Tale of the Tape Rogue Warriors League Rank
8 38.8 Gold Diff @ 10 min -450.3 13
9 25.4 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1410.0 17
7 -175.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -700.0 13
-2.8 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -85.3
10 24.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 -117.9 16
2 444.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -87.3 14
11 1804.6 Gold /min (GPM) 1671.1 15
16.5 Gold / min vs Avg -117.0
5 89.9 Gold Diff / min -218.2 15
6 1.2 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -3.1 15
11 1600.5 Kill Agnostic GPM 1528.4 15
8 29.1 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -133.4 15
10 1942.2 GPM in wins 1892.8 16
9 337.0 Gold Diff per min in wins 192.6 17
13 1598.3 GPM in losses 1574.7 16
5 -280.8 Gold Diff per min in losses -396.7 15
95.5 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -212.5
10 -9.1 Win-Adjusted GPM -58.4 16
9 12.8 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -131.6 17
14 44.2 Dragon Control % 34.1 16
8 52.2 Herald Control % 42.4 13
11 52.3 Baron Control % 38.5 14
12.0 Quality Wins? 4.0
57.1 % of wins as Quality 40.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 53.308%
2 1 28.773%
1 2 10.636%
0 2 7.284%
(Series Win): 82.081%

 

I’ll say it again for those that haven’t heard me the past few matches. This Rogue Warriors team picked up some upset wins but they’re still a very VERY bad team. Maybe they aren’t Victory Five Dumpster Fire bad but they’re not good and their underlying numbers suggest the same. STill, this is a team that creates action and can spike games off the back of “The New Haro” Xiaohao. … ok maybe it’s too early for that but they’re remarkably similar aren’t they?

I’m backing LNG here. This is about as cheap as favorites every get in the LPL. You almost never see high single digit edges on favorites in this league. RW’s recent surge has severely inflated their price and I’m not buying it. Even if you filter RW’s to just their time with this iteration of the lineup it’s still an advantage to LNG so I’m making that play. Rare to get a cheap favorite like this.

My Picks:

Moneyline: LNG -270 (2.7 units)

Map Spread: LNG -1.5 maps @ +118 (1 unit)

 

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and you can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

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