Monday, June 19th Recap

 

ThunderTalk vs Rogue Warriors (Net: +2.585 units)

Victory Five vs Invictus Gaming (Net: +1.0 units)

 

LPL Net Total: +3.585 units

 

Daily Net Total: +3.585 units

 

With the absolutely brutal Summer I’ve had in the LPL and seeing what might be my first clean sheet was a welcome sight. Invictus tried really hard to bungle this too but did eventually get there.

 

 


LPL Summer 2021

Week Seven – Day Two

 

 

LGD Gaming +144 (+1.5 maps @ -233, -1.5 maps @ +406)

vs

Team WE -185 (-1.5 maps @ +178, +1.5 @ -625)

 

Map Moneyline: LGD +129 / WE -167

Kill Total: 27.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -119 / -4.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -120 / under -108)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +184 / -245 (map), +267 / -368 (series), -143 / -104 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: WE series moneyline and -1.5 maps

Starters:

LGD – Garvey, Shad0w, Xiye, Kramer, Mark

WE – Breathe, Beishang, Shanks, Elk, Missing

 

Trends
WE as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) LGD as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 4 2 -940 Matches as Underdogs 2 6 +257
Against Map Spread 2 4 -31 Against Map Spread 4 4 -78
Against Kill Spread 9 7 7.2 Against Kill Spread 9 11 +7
Kill Totals 9 7 25.33 Kill Totals 12 8 25.88
Team Kill Totals 8 8 15.67 Team Kill Totals 11 9 9.63
Game Time Totals 8 8 30.8 Game Time Totals 10 10 30.25
Dragons over 4.5 7 9 Dragons over 4.5 11 9
Towers over 11.5 8 8 Towers over 11.5 10 10

 

League Rank WE Tale of the Tape LGD League Rank
4 376.9 Gold Diff @ 10 min -684.4 15
3 1199.0 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1807.1 17
4 1275.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -2100.0 15
74.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 27.5
3 51.0 Gold Diff / min first 20 -68.6 10
12 216.9 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 313.9 10
9 1813.2 Gold /min (GPM) 1782.9 12
25.9 Gold / min vs Avg -4.4
10 44.4 Gold Diff / min -13.4 11
10 0.7 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.2 11
11 1603.7 Kill Agnostic GPM 1578.6 12
9 21.2 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -8.7 11
10 1948.8 GPM in wins 1930.3 13
6 356.5 Gold Diff per min in wins 295.4 13
5 1655.0 GPM in losses 1635.5 10
11 -319.6 Gold Diff per min in losses -322.2 12
52.7 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -5.1
10 -3.3 Win-Adjusted GPM -21.7 13
6 31.3 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -29.8 13
9 49.1 Dragon Control % 45.1 13
4 59.6 Herald Control % 41.1 12
10 50.0 Baron Control % 54.8 7
7.0 Quality Wins? 4.0
50.0 % of wins as Quality 28.6

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 46.101%
2 1 29.599%
1 2 13.994%
0 2 10.305%
(Series Win): 75.700%

 

It’s not really new news at this point but the cat is out of the bag that this LGD team just isn’t that good. Being not terrible doesn’t make you good. That said they are a spunky underdog so you can’t entirely disrespect them either.

Team WE continue to underperform expectations which is why they aren’t bigger favorites here but their performance metrics suggest otherwise.

I’m going with WE here, I’m not quite as bullish as the model is on them in this position (double digit percentage edge on market price), but I do think they’re the right side. The first tower and first heralds are ALSO double digit edges on market price if you prefer to go that route.

My Picks:

**UPDATE: This line moved while writing this to -227 for WE. I still show an edge at that price and will still be playing it.

Moneyline: Team WE -227 (2.27 units)

Map Spread: Team WE -1.5 maps @ +146 (0.5 units)

 


 

JD Gaming -233 (-1.5 maps @ +138, +1.5 @ -769)

vs

BiliBili Gaming +178 (+1.5 maps @ -179, -1.5 @ +474)

 

Map Moneyline: JDG -204 / BLG +156

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -118 / under -110)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -112 / +5.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -127 / under -102)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -125 / -102 (map), -131 / +103 (series), +226 / -309 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: BiliBili series moneyline, +1.5 maps, and -1.5 maps

Starters:

JDG – Zoom, Kanavi, Yagao, LokeN, LvMao

BLG – Biubiu, Weiwei, Zeka, Aiming, ppgod

Trends
JDG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) BLG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 5 3 -1039 Matches as Underdogs 1 4 +245
Against Map Spread 4 4 -55 Against Map Spread 3 2 -108
Against Kill Spread 8 11 6.9 Against Kill Spread 5 8 +7
Kill Totals 10 9 26.38 Kill Totals 7 6 25.50
Team Kill Totals 10 9 16.13 Team Kill Totals 6 7 9.30
Game Time Totals 9 10 30.1 Game Time Totals 9 4 30.80
Dragons over 4.5 12 7 Dragons over 4.5 6 7
Towers over 11.5 9 10 Towers over 11.5 9 4

 

League Rank JDG Tale of the Tape BiliBili League Rank
5 339.4 Gold Diff @ 10 min -183.9 10
8 -121.2 Gold Diff @ 15 min -213.4 9
9 -325.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -150.0 7
80.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 42.2
2 20.4 Gold Diff / min first 20 24.6 6
4 469.1 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 359.7 9
4 1855.5 Gold /min (GPM) 1816.7 8
68.2 Gold / min vs Avg 29.4
5 90.8 Gold Diff / min 55.3 9
6 1.2 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.8 9
4 1629.4 Kill Agnostic GPM 1625.8 6
5 52.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 47.9 6
6 1983.9 GPM in wins 1977.8 7
10 335.4 Gold Diff per min in wins 372.5 3
6 1650.2 GPM in losses 1630.7 11
8 -300.5 Gold Diff per min in losses -310.6 10
99.1 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 63.6
6 31.8 Win-Adjusted GPM 25.8 7
10 10.2 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 47.2 3
6 53.0 Dragon Control % 50.8 8
17 35.3 Herald Control % 50.0 9
1 64.7 Baron Control % 61.8 4
9.0 Quality Wins? 11.0
56.3 % of wins as Quality 73.3

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 27.557%
2 1 26.182%
1 2 23.693%
0 2 22.567%
(Series Win): 53.739%

JDG had been looking a lot better lately and then got completely walloped by Suning in their last match after a 6-1 streak against IG, WE, and RareAtom (2-1) came to a halt. JDG have been a bit of a difficult team to pin down. They’re most certainly improved from their poor early season form but I’m not entirely convinced that this team is really that good either. Their numbers certainly suggest that they’re at least this good but they make a lot of really unintelligent decisions in game that always leave me scratching my head and in a metagame where you can lose off of a stupid mistake or a poorly positioned fight I’m a little hesitant.

The other side of this matchup is BiliBili who have quietly put together a very competitive season albeit against one of the softer schedules thus far. Still, BLG have beaten some good teams like FPX and have taken games off of WE and EDG but they’ve also dropped games to TT and LGD so they’re a bit of a tricky team to pin down.

I think BiliBili is the play in this series. I’m not quite as bullish as the model is on the position but BLG have been a competitive team this season and JDG haven’t been quite as good as their numbers suggest, at least in my interpretation of the film. Both good teams. I don’t think one should be favored by this much over the other even if JDG do deserve to be favorites.

Few positions I like in this one besides the side.

  • BLG first tower at +106. JDG have just a 34.6% first tower rate on the season to BLG’s 55.55% and BLG still maintain close to that rate when filtered to only good opponents
  • Kill Total OVERS. My projections make this a 27.765 kill game, 28.807 with the time-implied total. All totals are underpriced here. Take the alt over 26.5 @ +113.

 

My Picks:

Map Spread: BLG +1.5 maps @ -179 (1.79 units)

Moneyline: BLG +178 (0.5 units)

Map Spread: BLG -1.5 maps @ +474 (0.25 units)

Kill Total (alt): Map 1 OVER 26.5 kills @ +113 (0.5 units)

Kill Total (alt): Map 2 OVER 26.5 kills @ +106 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 1 BLG first tower @ +106 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 BLG first tower @ +112 (0.5 units)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and you can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

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