Monday, June 12th Recap

 

LGD Gaming vs EDward Gaming (Net: +0.49 units)

EDG won game two a little too clean but still a net profit on this one after a bit of a kill bonanza in game one.

FunPlus Phoenix vs RareAtom (Net: -2.24 units)

This ended up being a very competitive series but didn’t quite play out as expected. Nuguri hard carried both FPX wins so it was nice to see him return to form against another great top laner. Perhaps a week off was just what the doctor ordered for the world champion.

 

Daily Net Total: -1.75 units

 


LPL Summer 2021

Week Six – Day Two

 

ThunderTalk Gaming (TT) +462 (+1.5 maps @ +129, -1.5 @ +1200)

vs

BiliBili Gaming -769 (-1.5 maps @ -167)

 

Map Moneyline: TT +320 / BLG -455

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -119 / under -109)

Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -105 / -8.5 @ -123

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 16.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -123 / under -105)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  +335 / -481 (map), +583 / -1097 (series), +145 / -188 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: none

Starters:

TT – Langx, Xiaopeng, Ye, SamD, Pudding

BLG – Biubiu, Weiwei, Zeka, Aiming, ppgod

Trends
BLG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) TT as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 4 1 -438 Matches as Underdogs 0 8 +721
Against Map Spread 3 2 +46 Against Map Spread 1 7 +163
Against Kill Spread 6 6 6.3 Against Kill Spread 7 10 +10
Kill Totals 7 5 25.70 Kill Totals 7 10 25.75
Team Kill Totals 5 7 15.50 Team Kill Totals 7 10 8.00
Game Time Totals 5 7 30.8 Game Time Totals 8 9 29.75
Dragons over 4.5 3 9 Dragons over 4.5 8 9
Towers over 11.5 7 5 Towers over 11.5 10 7

 

League Rank BiliBili Tale of the Tape TT League Rank
3 913.5 Gold Diff @ 10 min -498.7 13
5 645.8 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1776.2 16
3 500.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1212.5 17
-84.7 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -10.7
14 12.6 Gold Diff / min first 20 -137.6 10
2 795.6 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -173.4 17
6 1828.1 Gold /min (GPM) 1637.4 15
44.0 Gold / min vs Avg -146.7
7 91.6 Gold Diff / min -297.5 16
7 1.2 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -4.1 16
3 1632.6 Kill Agnostic GPM 1510.1 15
5 68.4 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -176.5 16
5 1979.4 GPM in wins 1893.1 15
2 373.2 Gold Diff per min in wins 311.0 11
11 1631.5 GPM in losses 1589.4 13
7 -274.4 Gold Diff per min in losses -411.6 15
98.8 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -290.3
5 34.0 Win-Adjusted GPM -52.4 15
2 53.8 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -8.4 11
7 50.5 Dragon Control % 41.7 15
6 54.8 Herald Control % 44.4 12
3 65.4 Baron Control % 27.3 16
9.0 Quality Wins?
69.2 % of wins as Quality

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 62.230%
2 1 26.278%
1 2 7.033%
0 2 4.458%
(Series Win): 88.508%

BiliBili have finally started to look like the team I thought they would going into the season and sit as the 5th best team in the model rating system. This team is legitimately good and improving which is a dangerous thing for a lot of these former top teams that are a bit hit or miss or struggling at the moment.

This is just about right on market on the sides and kill / time totals derivatives but I think the way to play this is TT firsts. TT remain a unique wonder of the world, a team that is so consistently behind even early in games still manages to pick of the first objectives on neutrals at a hilariously high rate. TT have 57.9% first blood, 52.6% first tower, 52.6% first dragon, and 57.9% first herald this season. BiliBili are actually just below 50% on dragons and heralds. This also contributes to over tower totals for both of these teams but the market price edge isn’t as big as the first markets.

I like TT first hearld which was the largest edge shown for this matchup.

 

My Picks:

Prop: Map 1 TT first herald @ +125 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 TT first herald @ +125 (1 unit)

 


 

LNG Esports -147 (-1.5 maps @ +206, +1.5 @ -476)

vs

Team WE +115 (+1.5 maps @ -278, -1.5 @ +325)

 

Map Moneyline: LNG -137 / WE +107

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -116 / +3.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -127 / under -103)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  +111 / -142 (map), +125 / -160 (series), +193 / -259 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: Team WE series moneyline and -1.5 maps

Starters:

LNG – Ale, Tarzan, Icon, Light, Iwandy

WE – Breathe, Beishang, Shanks, Elk, Missing

Trends
LNG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) WE as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 3 2 -930 Matches as Underdogs 1 2 +116
Against Map Spread 2 3 -63 Against Map Spread 1 2 -271
Against Kill Spread 5 7 7.3 Against Kill Spread 2 5 +3
Kill Totals 4 8 25.10 Kill Totals 5 2 26.50
Team Kill Totals 4 8 16.30 Team Kill Totals 3 4 11.83
Game Time Totals 7 5 30.4 Game Time Totals 4 3 31.00
Dragons over 4.5 4 8 Dragons over 4.5 5 2
Towers over 11.5 6 6 Towers over 11.5 4 3
League Rank LNG Tale of the Tape WE League Rank
14 -641.4 Gold Diff @ 10 min 220.1 9
13 -686.4 Gold Diff @ 15 min 1603.5 2
12 -575.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min 1300.0 5
67.5 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -70.3
6 34.3 Gold Diff / min first 20 38.5 13
6 501.6 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 96.4 13
7 1827.6 Gold /min (GPM) 1799.8 11
43.5 Gold / min vs Avg 15.8
3 131.6 Gold Diff / min 11.7 10
3 1.8 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.2 10
10 1612.7 Kill Agnostic GPM 1593.8 11
7 45.1 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 1.7 12
9 1941.4 GPM in wins 1932.5 12
6 345.9 Gold Diff per min in wins 330.5 8
12 1614.1 GPM in losses 1667.2 4
6 -270.4 Gold Diff per min in losses -307.1 10
138.8 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 18.8
9 -4.0 Win-Adjusted GPM -13.0 12
6 26.5 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 11.0 8
11 48.1 Dragon Control % 46.2 12
9 52.2 Herald Control % 58.3 5
10 53.3 Baron Control % 55.6 8
9.0 Quality Wins? 4.0
60.0 % of wins as Quality 40.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
0 2 30.999%
1 2 27.480%
2 1 21.876%
2 0 19.645%
(Series Win): 41.521%

Admittedly, Team WE have had a fairly difficult schedule in their past five matches facing JDG, OMG (easiest matchup), BLG, RareAtom, and FPX but they’ve also just look a little “off.” I’m not sure if it’s the Shanks/Mole shuffle or if they’re just in a weird funk but they’re typically more competitive than they’ve been against good teams.

LNG on the other hand are riding dirty off the back of their tremendous start to the season against the toughest part of their schedule but have started to show some signs of regression. they were absolutely whooped by RareAtom and dropped their last series to UltraPrime 1-2.

I think I need to remind people that for all the excitement around this LNG team that they’ve dropped games, nearly two, to ThunderTalk and lost their most recent series to UltraPrime. They were also the top negative regression candidate comparing model rating to standing position. LNG are a pretty good team but they’re being way overrated right now. I actually think in their current form that these two teams are fairly close to evenly matched. WE should be much better, LNG should probably fall back down to earth a little and I think this is probably a good spot to be on the underdogs. As teams get more and more comfortable in the current metagame, LNG’s edge is going to slowly dissipate. It’s not like they’re completely fall off a cliff or anything but they benefitted massively from being ahead of the curve and well-positioned to start the season while most of their opponents seemed the opposite.

I also like WE first tower quite a bit here. 66.67% (repeating of course… anybody that gets that joke, cheers to you), vs LNG’s measly 39.1% … yea this team that’s currently 15-8 has a sub 40% first tower rate, riddle me that Batman.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Team WE +115 (1 unit)

Map Spread: Team WE -1.5 maps @ +325 (0.25 units)

Prop: Map 1 WE first tower @ -123 (0.615 units)

Prop: Map 2 WE first tower @ -127 (0.635 units)


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and you can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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