Monday, August 2nd Recap

 

BiliBili Gaming vs UltraPrime (Net: +0.4 units)

RareAtom vs Suning Gaming (Net: +0.54 unitS)

 

 

LPL Net Total: +0.94 units

 

Daily Net Total: +0.94 units

 

 


LPL Summer 2021

Week Nine – Day Two

 

 

Below are my power numbers through eight weeks in the LPL. This doesn’t include this morning’s matches but I forgot to post this yesterday. I also put the standings as of this morning below it.

 

LPL Through Week 8
Team Power # Rank
FunPlus 1.264615937 1
EDG 1.038353175 2
TOP 0.9541712868 3
WE 0.7145553242 4
Royal Never GU 0.7039215376 5
Suning 0.5131582222 6
RareAtom 0.4443061776 7
BiliBili 0.369468582 8
Invictus 0.197921825 9
OMG 0.05175605776 10
LNG -0.2586655993 11
JDG -0.3305356612 12
LGD -0.592846794 13
ThunderTalk -0.9996183908 14
Rogue Warriors -1.030746749 15
UltraPrime -1.152219313 16
Victory Five -1.887595619 17

 

 


Team
Series Games Str
1 ⁠⁠EDward Gaming 11 – 3 79% 22 – 7 76% +15 1W
2 ⁠⁠FunPlus Phoenix 11 – 3 79% 24 – 10 71% +14 6W
3 ⁠⁠Team WE 10 – 4 71% 22 – 13 63% +9 6W
4 ⁠⁠Rare Atom 10 – 5 67% 23 – 15 61% +8 1W
5 ⁠⁠LNG Esports 10 – 5 67% 24 – 17 59% +7 1L
6 ⁠⁠Royal Never Give Up 9 – 5 64% 22 – 11 67% +11 8W
7 ⁠⁠Bilibili Gaming 9 – 6 60% 22 – 16 58% +6 2W
8 ⁠⁠Oh My God 9 – 6 60% 19 – 16 54% +3 3W
9 ⁠⁠Top Esports 8 – 6 57% 19 – 15 56% +4 1L
10 ⁠⁠Suning 8 – 7 53% 22 – 18 55% +4 1L
11 ⁠⁠JD Gaming 7 – 8 47% 17 – 18 49% -1 5L
12 ⁠⁠LGD Gaming 6 – 9 40% 15 – 20 43% -5 3L
13 ⁠⁠Invictus Gaming 5 – 9 36% 12 – 19 39% -7 2L
14 ⁠⁠Rogue Warriors 4 – 11 27% 12 – 25 32% -13 4L
15 ⁠⁠Ultra Prime 4 – 11 27% 11 – 25 31% -14 1L
16 ⁠⁠ThunderTalk Gaming 2 – 11 15% 6 – 22 21% -16 1L
17 ⁠⁠Victory Five 0 – 14 0% 3 – 28 10% -25 14L

(standings from Leaguepedia.com)

Pretty clear divergence points.

 


OMG +199 (+1.5 maps @ -152, -1.5 @ +498)

vs

TOP Esports -263 (-1.5 maps @ +118, +1.5 @ -833)

 

Map Moneyline: OMG +162 / TOP -213

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -122 / under -108)

Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -118 / -6.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 16.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -130 / under +100)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +165 / -217 (map), +226 / -303 (series), -153 / +119 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play:  none

Starters:

OMG – New, AKi, Creme, Able, COLD

TOP – 369, Karsa, Knight, JackeyLove, Zhuo

Trends
TOP as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) OMG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 7 6 -969 Matches as Underdogs 5 6 +330
Against Map Spread 4 9 -3 Against Map Spread 6 5 -38
Against Kill Spread 14 18 6.3 Against Kill Spread 14 12 +7
Kill Totals 19 13 26.35 Kill Totals 12 14 25.59
Team Kill Totals 13 19 15.81 Team Kill Totals 15 11 9.50
Game Time Totals 15 17 30.4 Game Time Totals 12 14 30.36
Dragons over 4.5 12 20 Dragons over 4.5 7 19
Towers over 11.5 17 15 Towers over 11.5 9 17

 

League Rank TOP Tale of the Tape OMG League Rank
2 1813.2 Gold Diff @ 10 min 196.1 8
8 339.7 Gold Diff @ 15 min 441.2 7
4 73.2 Gold Diff @ 20 min 812.5 8
48.3 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -24.1
4 48.7 Gold Diff / min first 20 -35.7 13
1 464.6 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -56.6 15
4 1859.1 Gold /min (GPM) 1756.1 12
69.7 Gold / min vs Avg -33.3
4 114.9 Gold Diff / min -56.6 12
4 1.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.7 12
6 1631.5 Kill Agnostic GPM 1569.7 14
4 61.4 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -42.9 13
2 2004.0 GPM in wins 1896.4 15
1 386.5 Gold Diff per min in wins 267.0 15
3 1675.6 GPM in losses 1589.5 14
2 -229.1 Gold Diff per min in losses -440.8 17
119.3 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -52.2
2 55.8 Win-Adjusted GPM -51.7 15
1 66.8 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -52.7 15
3 56.9 Dragon Control % 54.9 6
6 58.8 Herald Control % 52.2 8
3 63.0 Baron Control % 56.1 7
16.0 Quality Wins? 7.0
84.2 % of wins as Quality 36.8

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 42.671%
2 1 29.594%
1 2 15.710%
0 2 12.025%
(Series Win): 72.265%

 

I don’t play motivation angles as much as use them to break ties but what’s interesting about this match is that TOP clinched playoffs today on the Suning loss to RareAtom and OMG are right next to them in the standings, also clinched. Just keep the standings in mind here. There’s an outside chance that we see one or both teams mail it in a bit or just play loose here.

I pretty much stick to my numbers most of the time these days but I’m trusting my intuition on this one. TOP are going to completely smash this series. OMG are frauds and they’re going to get completely whooped in playoffs. They’re also unfortunately catching TOP Esports coming off of an embarrassing loss to UltraPrime this weekend, a series in which they speed ran to a 20 minute victory in game one and managed to somehow lose the series outright. They’re going to be dialed in and in full “FU” mode for this match as a “get right” before playoffs. Just look at the Tale of the Tape above. It’s tough not to say OMG are fraudulent. Even in a metagame where outplaying the high leverage situation matters more than economy this is a DRASTIC difference. This is a similar reason to why I’m not a huge believer in Nongshim in the LCK. Are they improved? Absolutely. Are they as good as their results? Almost definitely not.

The model makes this market roughly at the number but TOP will be another match back with 369 re-integrating into the lineup, OMG rely so much on Creme to get things done and he has to face down Knight in this matchup… I’m just not seeing it for the upstarts. TOP smash.

In terms of derivative markets, the strongest edges on the board for “firsts” are OMG first blood and herald but TOP are 50%+ in both so take that for what you will but the biggest edge is on the under dragons which actually makes a ton of sense given the direction the game has gone over the past few patches with teams prioritizing tier two towers for the bonus gold over stacking drakes. Since patch 11.13 when that tower gold change went through just 48 out of 142 games have gone OVER the dragon total. 66.2% of games remain under.

My Picks:

Moneyline: TOP Esports -263 (2.63 units)

Map Spread: TOP -1.5 maps @ +118 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -108 (2.16 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -111 (2.22 units)

 


 

Royal Never Give Up -250 (-1.5 maps @ +120, +1.5 @ -769)

vs

Team WE +190 (+1.5 maps @ -154, -1.5 @ +483)

 

Map Moneyline: RNG -208 / WE +160

Kill Total: 27.5 (over -118 / under -110)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -105 / +7.5 @ -123

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -127 / under -102)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -112 / -113 (map), -112 / -114 (series), +255 / -352 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play:  WE series moneyline, -1.5 maps, and +1.5 maps (Strong)

Starters:

RNG – Xiaohu, Wei, Cryin, GALA, Ming

WE – Breathe, Beishang, Shanks, Elk, Missing

Trends
RNG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) WE as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 8 3 -1110 Matches as Underdogs 3 2 +153
Against Map Spread 7 4 -50 Against Map Spread 3 2 -239
Against Kill Spread 15 10 7.2 Against Kill Spread 6 6 +4
Kill Totals 16 9 25.86 Kill Totals 6 6 26.10
Team Kill Totals 15 10 15.86 Team Kill Totals 6 6 11.30
Game Time Totals 10 15 30.0 Game Time Totals 6 6 30.80
Dragons over 4.5 9 16 Dragons over 4.5 5 7
Towers over 11.5 14 11 Towers over 11.5 7 5

 

League Rank Royal Never GU Tale of the Tape WE League Rank
9 -28.4 Gold Diff @ 10 min 201.4 7
3 1224.6 Gold Diff @ 15 min 1426.6 2
2 1625.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min 1850.0 6
65.6 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 30.6
2 75.3 Gold Diff / min first 20 63.4 5
6 402.5 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 323.4 9
2 1891.0 Gold /min (GPM) 1840.0 5
101.6 Gold / min vs Avg 50.6
3 145.4 Gold Diff / min 101.3 5
3 2.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.5 5
2 1667.5 Kill Agnostic GPM 1616.2 8
3 99.9 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 53.2 6
4 1991.8 GPM in wins 1946.2 9
4 362.6 Gold Diff per min in wins 343.1 6
2 1689.3 GPM in losses 1660.1 6
5 -289.0 Gold Diff per min in losses -308.0 7
149.8 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 105.6
4 43.7 Win-Adjusted GPM -1.9 9
4 42.9 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 23.4 6
11 49.0 Dragon Control % 49.0 10
3 60.6 Herald Control % 60.0 5
5 60.0 Baron Control % 60.0 5
14.0 Quality Wins? 12.0
63.6 % of wins as Quality 54.5

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
0 2 25.156%
1 2 25.078%
2 1 24.922%
2 0 24.844%
(Series Win): 49.766%

 

So the catch with this one is the RNG have continued to look better and better with each week after a rough start to the season. WE aren’t necessarily trending in the opposite direction so much as just making some really questionable decisions in each and every match that make me very hesitant to back them, particularly as favorites. However, they’re underdogs here which makes this interesting.

Teams that make poor decisions get eaten alive in the LPL by the “adults in the room” like RNG, RareAtom, BiliBili, EDG, and FunPlus. You can brute force your way through teams that also make suspect decisions like JDG or LNG but you’re not going to be able to get away with making otherwise critical mistakes against the really good teams in the league.

The other angle here is that WE tend to play better against the better teams and have lazy, uninspired performances against the bad teams in the league. This isn’t a unique phenomenon as it happens all the time but it’s just worth noting.

I have a hard time walking away from this number but think this is a situation where you have to consider the unique characteristics of both of these teams in a matchup. It’s difficult to quantify that which is why the model is having such a hard time with this. I’m going to stay away here. I think RNG take care of business. They’ve been a much better team if you look at just the second half of the season and more predictive metrics like kill agnostic gold differential etc. They’re in that elite tier in those measurables. WE are inconsistent and frankly dumb at times and you just can’t do that against a team like RNG.

RNG first blood and WE first herald are the strongest edges on market price in the derivatives. I’ll be playing RNG first blood.

 

My Picks:

Prop: Map 1 RNG first blood @ -152 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 RNG first blood @ -143 (1 unit)

 

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and you can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

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