Monday, April 5th Recap

 

JD Gaming vs FunPlus Phoenix (Net: +0.69 units)

Had the right side with FPX but these games were a lot more wild than I’d anticipated them to be.

The first game of this series was absolutely insane! A lot of really high level stuff, and some definite tensions running high type situations where you could tell the players were overplaying a little like the fight for second dragon. JDG looked like they had a decent hold on this first game but some weird split fights really complicated things and ended up much more even than I’d ever anticipate they would. Crisp, Lwx, and Nuguri played an incredible game making some amazing micro plays in a lot of these fights and skirmishes that bailed FPX out of a few hairy positions. A few of these fights were incredibly close and I frankly have no idea how FPX won them so decisively besides Sett being kind of lackluster in certain spots (although his ult here was ridiculous).

Ultimately Zoom made the fatal error to ice it for FPX although this game was essentially over already on the initial base break.

Game two we saw a “camp top” comp which I actually think is a great look against Gnar specifically because he struggles with early ganks and pressure. JDG brought Renekton, Nidalee, and Twisted Fate and got off to a good start in this one with a sizeable gold lead in the first ten minutes before forcing a contest at the first dragon when Yagao’s Twisted Fate ultimate was down (trying to kill Doinb after a blue invade around 9 minutes, you gain nothing from this kill although it did get Doinb’s flash you need to be cognizant of what’s going on on the map with drag being up right now or just opting into herald here) This resulted in a 3v4 and a dragon over to FPX. The idea here was good but the execution was absolutely terrible from JDG. With a comp like this you shouldn’t be trying to a dragon snowball. You should be forcing Gnar’s teleport and countering this dragon on the other side of the map with a kill into herald and get the first tower and potentially a charge on the second as well. You want a gold snowball here and you shouldn’t be contesting disadvantageous fights although.  This all stemmed from the TF ult being used for a kill that wouldn’t have really turned into anything but that kill. JDG stayed in this game keeping a gold lead by setting up “Camp Nuguri” in the top lane but Yagao was woefully behind on gold and experience as Doinb’s Sylas continued to essentially do his job but better. Eventually the better 5v5 won.

JDG completely blew open game three off the back of a completely ridiculous 1v9 carry performance by Kanavi’s Graves but JDG nearly threw this one with a lot of indecision and poor macro and wave management as FPX tried to “rat” this one out and backdoor split once they realized even the fed Ornn couldn’t 1v1 the Jayce. This got really chaotic and the fact that FPX nearly stole this one from a 6000 gold deficit is a testament to both their creativity and JDG’s sometimes suspect decision making. Kanavi was just too much eventually.

Game four was a little tragic but in some ways very indicative of a problem that JDG have had for YEARS with this roster. JDG are a team that dives. They almost always move forward. It’s their identity, it’s what they’re good at, but their greatest strength sometimes backfires. The problem with this is you’re leaving the carries out to dry and fend for themselves a lot of the time. If you watch their games their frontline is VERY aggressively positioned forward even when it’s not always the best time they just aren’t punished for it often. Normally it’s not an issue and carries like it when they can move forward because you’re playing offensive line for them BUT in situations like the one in game four where you have an EXTREMELY fed Jinx you need to go from run blocking to pass blocking as the frontline/offensive line in this example. Flash Gnar ult, Hecarim ult, Rakan ult, Kaisa to follow it up. You’ve got to assign who is on engage duty and who is on peel duty. The best way to deal with Kaisa is to dive her but if it ends up in a situation where both teams are diving the backlines, the Kaisa does much better than the Jinx in this spot.

When LokeN was about to pick up his Guardian Angel AND his flash was going to be back up momentarily that this game was essentially over because they couldn’t reliably kill him but FPX realized that this was their window and dove off of a nice flank by Tian to end the game… or so I thought before Yagao went ballistic on Sylas.  After somehow winning that fight after LokeN got deleted I honestly thought JDG had this one in the bag. LokeN was now going to have Flash AND Guardian Angel AND mountain soul and FPX were going to have an extremely hard time getting to him much less killing him.

Then disaster.

Admittedly this was sick flank by Tian which forced a very VERY difficult situation. I think LokeN should have flashed the raptor wall but he was toward the center of the lane just a little too much when the flank was spotted and the CC chain was too much. You can blame Loken for this but really this was a team decision. You had more vision on your flanks on the bottom side so you should be setting your line of scrimmage for your phalanx from there by either decisively stepping forward here or rotating around and into river so that you can’t be flanked without seeing it and that is a team call not an individual call. This ultimately cost them the game.

Still this was an exciting series with a lot of high level things by both teams. Great games.

 

Daily Net Total: +0.69 units

 

 

Last Week (March 29th to April 4th):  +30.69 units (+14.26% ROI)

 

Monster week last week. We take those.

 


LOL Pro League (LPL)

Spring Playoffs

Round 3 – Day 2

 

 

#3 TOP Esports -133 (-1.5 maps @ +163, -2.5 @ +487, +1.5 @ -312, +2.5 @ -1429)

vs

#7 Suning Gaming +105 (+1.5 maps @ -213, +2.5 @ -833, -1.5 @ +229, -2.5 @ +695)

 

 

Map ML Price: TOP -141 / SN +110

Total Maps Played: 3.5 maps (over -357 / under +259), 4.5 maps (over +159 / under -208)

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -120 / under -108)

Kill Spread: -2.5 @ -114 / +2.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -114 / under -114)

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

TOP Tale of the Tape Suning
3061.3 Gold Diff @ 10 min -146.7
1699.9 Gold Diff @ 15 min 37.5
268.7 Gold Diff @ 20 min -840.5
129.8 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -40.3
192.7 Gold Diff / min first 20 34.6
565.4 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 571.0
1934.4 Gold /min (GPM) 1843.1
130.0 Gold / min vs Avg 38.7
242.6 Gold Diff / min 124.4
3.4 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.7
1680.6 Kill Agnostic GPM 1635.4
137.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 49.7
2027.1 GPM in wins 1941.2
436.1 Gold Diff per min in wins 318.3
1702.6 GPM in losses 1671.4
-241.2 Gold Diff per min in losses -214.9
240.6 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 122.4
60.1 Win-Adjusted GPM -25.9
104.6 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -13.2
55.3 Dragon Control % 53.9
66.7 Herald Control % 58.1
66.7 Baron Control % 56.8
16.0 Quality Wins? 10.0
64.0 % of wins as Quality 47.6

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

TOP series moneyline @ -133 (VERY strong)

TOP -1.5 maps @ +163 (VERY strong)

TOP +1.5 maps @ -312 (strong)

TOP -2.5 maps @ +487 (moderate-strong)

TOP map moneyline @ -141 (moderate-strong)

 

Quantitative Analysis:

 

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
3 1 28.063%
3 0 25.660%
3 2 20.460%
2 3 11.737%
1 3 9.235%
0 3 4.844%
(Series Win): 74.183%

(TOP projected series win % via model)

 

 

 (TOP Left / Suning Right)

 

  • Gold per minute in wins: 2nd / 15th
  • Gold Differential per minute in wins: 1st / 10th
  • Gold per minute in losses: 1st / 3rd
  • Gold Differential per minute in losses: 2nd / 6th
  • Win-adjusted gold per minute: 2nd / 15th
  • Win-adjusted gold differential per minute: 1st / 10th
  • Kill-agnostic gold per minute: 3rd / 8th
  • Kill-agnostic gold differential per minute: 1st / 8th
  • Opponent kill-agnostic gold per minute: 2nd / 8th
  • Overall Objective Control: 2nd / 7th
  • Regular Season Record vs non-LNG playoff teams (other top 9): TOP 10-8 / SN 5-12
  • Overall Team Rating: 1st / 8th
  • Suning won the regular season match on day one back in January 2-0.

 

Just looking at the numbers it’s TOP and it’s not close. This shouldn’t be any kind of outlandish revelation to anyone at this point but I went a few steps further with this. The LPL is an extremely stratified league. The top nine teams are significantly better than the bottom eight. As I’ve been doing throughout the playoffs, I’ve been looking at how these teams perform against the good teams and not just their full season numbers which can be skewed greatly by ridiculous performances, often blowouts, against the bad teams. Below is the Tale of the Tape against other top-nine teams.

 

 

 

TOP* Tale of the Tape* Suning*
1863.6 Gold Diff @ 10 min -128.3
919.1 Gold Diff @ 15 min -431.0
111.3 Gold Diff @ 20 min -276.5
82.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -25.7
119.3 Gold Diff / min first 20 -54.5
392.5 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 221.4
1850.5 Gold /min (GPM) 1723.6
58.0 Gold / min vs Avg -68.8
90.5 Gold Diff / min -106.6
1.3 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -1.5
1646.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1562.9
57.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -87.3
1974.8 GPM in wins 1848.9
364.8 Gold Diff per min in wins 153.4
1695.0 GPM in losses 1671.4
-252.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -214.9
111.1 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -86.0
16.2 Win-Adjusted GPM -109.6
47.2 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -164.2
53.2 Dragon Control % 40.2
72.2 Herald Control % 46.9
57.7 Baron Control % 36.0
4.0 Quality Wins? 1.0
40.0 % of wins as Quality 20.0

 

(* Tale of the Tape with all non-top 9 matchups filtered out for both teams)

 

While TOP aren’t exactly as dominant as they are in their normal numbers, they’re significantly better than Suning who look much more like a mediocre to weak team in this context. Suning look an awful lot like RareAtom’s statistical profile against the top teams.

 

 

If we took just TOP Esports against the top nine teams, let’s call them TOP Esports “B” for the sake of this exercise, they’d still rank #3 in the LPL by my economy/objective model. TOP Esports “B” would project to be roughly a -210 favorite against Suning.

 

 

(TOP Esports “B” Left / Suning Right)

 

  • Gold per minute in wins: 5th / 15th
  • Gold Differential per minute in wins: 5th / 10th
  • Gold per minute in losses: 2nd / 3rd
  • Gold Differential per minute in losses: 3rd / 6th
  • Win-adjusted gold per minute: 5th / 15th
  • Win-adjusted gold differential per minute: 5th / 10th
  • Kill-agnostic gold per minute: 7th / 8th
  • Kill-agnostic gold differential per minute: 8th / 7th
  • Opponent kill-agnostic gold per minute: 6th / 8th
  • Overall Objective Control: 1st / 7th
  • Overall Team Rating: 3rd / 8th

 

Below would be the series outcome projection with BOTH teams filtered to only their matchups against the other top nine teams

 

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
3 0 45.760%
3 1 31.492%
3 2 14.449%
2 3 4.301%
1 3 2.791%
0 3 1.207%
(Series Win): 91.701%

 

(TOP series outcome projections with all non-top 9 matchups filtered out for both teams)

 

Conclusion: GIGANTIC edge for TOP

 

Qualitative Analysis:

So obviously I don’t think TOP are 91% to win this match. Suning have been playing out of their mind recently and just cleanly dispatched Team WE, another team that the model liked for a lot of the season (although it really didn’t towards the end of the season). I just wanted to go through the exercise of showing how Suning have performed against the other good teams in the league because, as I discussed when I wrote on LNG vs Suning, they’ve got a lot of scheduling bias going on having come into the playoffs on a really soft schedule (just like JDG).

I think the big thing to consider here is how much weight you put on current or recent form. I don’t take it into consideration nearly as much as others do but it’s still something you have to keep in mind. Suning dominated WE in the second and third games but I also think WE’s extreme overaggression in the first game of that series in particular didn’t do them any favorites. Suning also stole the second dragon with Jinx ult (it’s a variance play although at this point I’m starting to wonder if teams understand to block it or not). If that doesn’t happen, WE are up a few thousand gold and likely 2-0 on drakes and in full control of the game. Maybe a different series but I digress.

Suning look really really good and I’ve been saying that they legitmately look cleaner than they did at the World Championships. Not necessarily better, but cleaner especially with their leads. That said, they haven’t really had as many of those as you’d think for a team with the record that they had to finish the season and this was my concern for them coming into playoffs much like JDG to a lesser extent.

TOP have had a few lapses in judgment here or there but for the most part have looked like the best team in the league on most days. You’ve got RNG, EDG and others in this same echelon but I don’t think any of them are as well-rounded and pound-for-pound talented as TOP are so to me, they’re the best team in the league. The model happens to feel the same way although it’s much more bullish on that sentiment than I am.

I think there are some arguments in favor of Suning given current form and maybe you could point to a matchup like Karsa vs SofM as an advantage working in their favor but I think the more action-oriented jungle metagame we’re seeing develop definitely works in favor of Karsa and TOP more than Suning and SofM. TOP also have a film and preparation advantage although Suning haven’t really had to show all that much so far in playoffs against LNG and WE.

TOP are definitely the side here. That’s not a question to me. it’s just a matter of how bullish you are. I’m very bullish on this team and for as good as Suning have looked I also think they’re being overrated quite a bit with this price. I’m not nearly as bullish on TOP as my model is but I’d still make this close to a 65-35 matchup after some generous adjustments for Suning’s recent form and individual prowess. I just don’t see where they have the edge in this matchup and we have a track record of the performance for these two teams against other higher caliber teams, one of them is excellent in this situation, the other is not. I acknowledge that teams can sometimes run hot and coming in “cold” can be a bad thing but more often than not fatigue trumps rust.

I’ll be taking a heavy position on TOP Esports.

Conclusion: Advantage TOP Esports

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Combined Avg kills per game: 26.657

Odds-Weighted: 29.113

Time-Implied: 27.056

Underdog Win: 28.077

“Gelati” Total Projection: 27.655 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 49.31% (TOP 62.26% / SN 36.36%)

Volatility Rating:  TOP 0.29927 / SN 0.37310 (League Avg: 0.3066)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

—-

Team Totals:

Suning team total OVER 10.5 @ -125 (VERY strong)

TOP team total OVER 14.5 @ -122 (light)

TOP League Average Suning
Combined Kills / game 28.028 26.18 25.287
Combined Kills / min 0.931 0.88 0.800
Kills per win 19.362 18.42 18.182
Kills per loss 9.896 8.80 10.594
Deaths per win 6.40 8.14 6.33
Deaths per loss 20.44 18.07 16.50
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 11.94 9.65 10.90
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 9.78 9.79 6.67

(above full season / below only vs top 9 teams)

TOP League Average Suning
Combined Kills / game 26.736 26.19 26.899
Combined Kills / min 0.843 0.87 0.842
Kills per win 16.956 18.27 18.138
Kills per loss 11.281 8.88 10.594
Deaths per win 6.00 8.21 8.00
Deaths per loss 20.38 18.07 16.50
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 11.10 9.52 9.60
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 10.63 9.84 6.67

Below I’m going to go into more detail on the time totals and why I think they’ll be going under so the important thing to look at is kills per minute. If we’re projecting 31 minute range games here then this is still looking to be about 26.04 kills per game. That said, Suning games are highly volatile when it comes to the combined kill metrics so I’ll be passing.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 31.255 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 31.64 / 31.84

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 32.9% (TOP 26.52% / SN 39.39%)

Volatility Rating: TOP 0.15530 / SN 0.16704 (League Avg: 0.16107)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 33:00 @ -114 (VERY strong)

 

TOP Suning
Average Game Time 30.27 32.24
Avg Game Time (in wins) 30.09 30.34
Avg Game Time (in losses) 30.010 35.569

(above full season / below only vs top 9 teams)

TOP Suning
Average Game Time 30.86 34.55
Avg Game Time (in wins) 30.09 32.12
Avg Game Time (in losses) 30.010 35.569

Suning are very stubborn losers in a good way. They have solid stablizing factors like gold per minute in losses, a minimal gold differential per minute gap in losses and generally play well from a deficit. They’re rarely ever blown out. That said, TOP snowball a lead harder than just about anyone and if you look at the objective derivatives below, they’re likely going to be able to accomplish just that, especially with extra time to prepare for Suning specifically. I think this is going to be a blowout-laden series. I don’t think we’ll see longer slugfest games, they’re going to be quick hitters. Give me the under.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

TOP first tower @ -159 (VERY strong)

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -182 (VERY strong)

UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -105 (strong)

SN first blood @ -109 (moderate-strong)**

TOP First blood @ -120 (moderate-strong)**

TOP first herald @ -125 (moderate)

OVER 1.5 barons @ +133 (light)

** denotes advantage in a category that the opponent is also strong in, must be considered

 

TOP are actually even better in first herald and tower against the top nine teams than you’re seeing here. The under 12.5 towers was also even better than with all games included.

I already have a very heavy position on top but the tower, first blood, and first herald all make a lot of sense here given how Suning play anyway. I’ll be opting for the first herald and blood for TOP as well as the tower under.

 

NOTE: I’m going to have a lot of positions in this match but it’s important to understand  that, as many of you know already, I’m a high volume bettor and stake using a very small percentage of my bankroll per wager (a smaller % than most). This isn’t for everybody. In fact there are some very smart people that would advise being more selective to theoretically avoid paying the vig this many times in a series. That said, each one of these positions has a SIGNIFICANT edge on the market price. Some series don’t have anything worth playing, some series have a lot. Sometimes it just works out that you have a ton of positions like this (I even cut a few of them in this instance).

You should manage your risk/volume based on the plan that works for you. Just keep in mind that most of the props are not as game script correlated as you’d think, particularly the firsts and tower totals, and many could hit even in a TOP los. It’s also a best-of-five.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: TOP Esports -133 (5.32 units)

Map Spread: TOP Esports -1.5 maps @ +163 (2 units)

Map Spread: TOP Esports -2.5 maps @ +487 (1 unit)

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ -114 (1.14 units)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ -114 (1.14 units)

Time Total: Map 3 UNDER 33:00 @ -114 (1.14 units)

Time Total: Map 4 UNDER 33:00 @ -114 (1.14 units)

Time Total: Map 5 UNDER 33:00 @ -114 (1.14 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -182 (1.82 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -185 (1.85 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -189 (1.89 units)

Prop: Map 4 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -196 (1.96 units)

Prop: Map 5 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -159 (1.59 units)

Prop: Map 1 TOP first herald @ -125 (1.25 units)

Prop: Map 2 TOP first herald @ -125 (1.25 units)

Prop: Map 3 TOP first herald @ -125 (1.25 units)

Prop: Map 4 TOP first herald @ -125 (1.25 units)

Prop: Map 5 TOP first herald @ -125 (1.25 units)

Prop: Map 1 TOP first blood @ -120 (0.6 units)

Prop: Map 2 TOP first blood @ -116 (0.58 units)

Prop: Map 3 TOP first blood @ -119 (0.595 units)

Prop: Map 4 TOP first blood @ -116 (0.58 units)

Prop: Map 5 TOP first blood @ -116 (0.58 units)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

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