Sunday, April 11th Recap

 

 

FunPlus Phoenix vs EDward Gaming (Net: +0.02 units)

The first series of our maximum 15 game Sunday with all three best-of-five series going to their fifth game was an absolute banger between FPX and EDG. This series was about as fast and furious as they get. All five games went under the time total in typical FPX game fashion.

We got to see Scout’s Qiyana, who was buffed last patch coincidentally, Doinb’s Lulu, which was much less successful, but the start of the show in this one was Doinb’s Akali from games two and five.

None of these games were particularly close in the box score (all five went under 11.5 towers as well) but there were a lot of extremely close, knife’s edge skirmishes throughout this series that made it extremely entertaining. Ultimately Doinb went absolutely berserk in the fifth game and that was the difference maker in the series. I could watch these two teams play all day long.

MAD Lions vs Rogue (Net: -1.86 units)(-3.86 + 2 live)

The rest of the day was not kind to me.

Rogue got reverse swept in this series which was just agonizing to watch holding Rogue tickets as well as being a long term bull on this team but my hat goes off to the MAD Lions who showed a ton of fight and dispelled some of the doubters about their “can’t perform on stage” accusations.

I expected this to be a competitive series if we got the good version of MAD Lions which we did but I was absolutely gutted on this one. There’s nothing quite like losing your winning Rogue ticket with a 7000+ gold lead in game five. This was an absolute titler. Just a brutal way to lose. Two game lead, MAD bring it back to force a game five, team you backed en route to an easy win in game five… moments before tragedy and all that. Just an insane bad beat but it happens.

Cloud 9 vs Team Liquid (Net: -1.96 units)

The brutal bad beats didn’t stop there either.

Liquid had appeared to have turned the corner with a very strong scaling composition in game four of this one and it looked like they were actually going to bring it back against a mountain soul. They won a few fights, picked up a baron, and had full control of the river preparing for elder drake which I think very likely would have helped them close this game before tragedy struck.

I’ve heard everything from “It should have been blocked by someone” to “Lul that’s why you pay him the big bucks” but let’s just call this what it was; a miracle shot. I give credit to Perkz for even finding this but I’m honestly a little shocked it didn’t catch Alphari’s hitbox either. They might have won the fight on that either way but catching Tactical with a one in a million shot like that is just brutal.

Cloud 9 ended up pulling out some scrim special lane swap cheese in game five which is something I absolutely loved. When you’ve got another team on tilt is the best time to break out the cheese. Liquid responded decently but you’ve got to be perfect in situations like this, Perkz got fed on Sylas and it was over.

You could say this was just Perkz putting the team on his back but I honestly think Liquid played better throughout this series overall. Big players make big plays sometimes it was just a brutal way to lose here especially considering how egregiously inaccurate the market price was on this game. I got Liquid at +255. It closed as low as +180 range near game time and +216 was where I wrote on it. This should have been a Liquid 3-1. I think they would have been a better representative at MSI as well, Cloud 9’s outer lanes are going to get utterly smashed at this tournament and I think Blaber and Perkz are going to have a much harder time taking over games than they do here but I suppose we’ll see.

 

Daily Net Total: -7.44 units (-23.87% ROI)

 

Just a brutal way to close the day. Absolutely backbreaking. This could have been a double digit green day and we ended up big time in the red. Losing happens, you get used to that handicapping but losing in this way was just frustrating. Breaks that way sometimes I guess. At least the series were entertaining.

 

Last Week (April 5th to April 11th): +25.7375 units (+19.26% ROI)

 


LOL Pro League (LPL)

Losers’ Bracket Finals

 

 

#2 EDward Gaming -182 (-1.5 maps @ +131, -2.5 @ +378, +1.5 @ -385, +2.5 @ -1429)

vs

#1 Royal Never Give Up +142 (+1.5 maps @ -167, +2.5 @ -556, -1.5 @ +278, -2.5 @ +726)

 

 

Map ML Price: EDG -147 / RNG +115

Total Maps Played: 3.5 maps (over -312 / under +232), 4.5 maps (over +165 / under -217)

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -115 / under -112)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -111 / +4.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -108 / under -120)

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

EDG Tale of the Tape Royal Never GU
-55.3 Gold Diff @ 10 min -137.0
520.9 Gold Diff @ 15 min -37.4
527.8 Gold Diff @ 20 min -21.5
34.7 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 4.7
62.2 Gold Diff / min first 20 50.8
497.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 537.8
1876.7 Gold /min (GPM) 1888.9
79.8 Gold / min vs Avg 92.0
192.1 Gold Diff / min 167.2
2.7 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 2.3
1663.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1667.9
98.5 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 100.1
1937.9 GPM in wins 1985.4
311.9 Gold Diff per min in wins 349.2
1639.6 GPM in losses 1634.7
-272.0 Gold Diff per min in losses -312.4
202.3 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 177.4
-26.2 Win-Adjusted GPM 21.3
-16.7 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 20.6
62.8 Dragon Control % 57.1
53.2 Herald Control % 47.5
59.6 Baron Control % 74.1
16.0 Quality Wins? 21.0
51.6 % of wins as Quality 72.4

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

RNG light value across the board, best on RNG +1.5 maps and series moneyline

 

Quantitative Analysis:

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
3 1 20.565%
3 2 19.567%
2 3 17.756%
1 3 16.935%
3 0 14.409%
0 3 10.767%
(Series Win): 54.542%

(EDG projected series win % via model)

 

 

 * EDG Left / RNG Right

 

  • Gold per minute in wins: 15th / 4th
  • Gold Differential per minute in wins: 11th / 7th
  • Gold per minute in losses: 4th / 8th
  • Gold Differential per minute in losses: 15th / 4th
  • Win-adjusted gold per minute: 15th / 4th
  • Win-adjusted gold differential per minute: 11th / 7th
  • Kill-agnostic gold per minute: 4th / 3rd
  • Kill-agnostic gold differential per minute: 2nd / 3rd
  • Opponent kill-agnostic gold per minute: 4th / 3rd
  • Overall Objective Control: 3rd / 2nd
  • Overall Team Rating: 2nd / 4th
  • Regular season series was won 2-1 by RNG. Two close games, one lopsided.

 

EDG being a more scaling focused team somewhat skews their statistics, particularly any early game economy measures but EDG are also significantly tougher losers which is backed up by their strong defense on film. Looking at this RNG looks like a decent value play but let’s take a look how they both fair against the top teams.

 

Below are the “only vs top nine teams” measures:

 

 

EDG Tale of the Tape Royal Never GU
-207.3 Gold Diff @ 10 min -644.1
235.7 Gold Diff @ 15 min -756.1
337.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -467.6
22.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -60.8
12.0 Gold Diff / min first 20 -10.0
374.7 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 481.9
1821.8 Gold /min (GPM) 1841.1
30.9 Gold / min vs Avg 50.2
98.0 Gold Diff / min 80.6
1.4 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.1
1633.4 Kill Agnostic GPM 1629.2
38.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 32.6
1905.5 GPM in wins 1964.3
268.2 Gold Diff per min in wins 301.5
1642.5 GPM in losses 1625.6
-266.6 Gold Diff per min in losses -306.0
118.8 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 101.4
-55.5 Win-Adjusted GPM 3.3
-55.1 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -21.7
62.0 Dragon Control % 52.8
52.3 Herald Control % 45.5
50.0 Baron Control % 74.3
5.0 Quality Wins? 9.0
33.3 % of wins as Quality 64.3

 

 

(Tale of the Tape both teams filtered vs top nine only)

 

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
3 1 21.001%
3 2 19.735%
2 3 17.493%
1 3 16.499%
3 0 14.898%
0 3 10.374%
(Series Win): 55.634%

(EDG series win % filtered to both teams vs top nine)

 

* EDG Left / RNG Right (both vs top nine teams)

 

  • Gold per minute in wins: 16th / 8th
  • Gold Differential per minute in wins: 15th / 10th
  • Gold per minute in losses: 6th / 13th
  • Gold Differential per minute in losses: 4th / 8th
  • Win-adjusted gold per minute: 16th / 8th
  • Win-adjusted gold differential per minute: 15th / 10th
  • Kill-agnostic gold per minute: 6th / 7th
  • Kill-agnostic gold differential per minute: 7th / 8th
  • Opponent kill-agnostic gold per minute: 8th / 9th
  • Overall Objective Control: 5th / 2nd
  • Overall Team Rating: 4th / 7th

 

It’s a little closer looking at it through this method but nothing to really write home about besides RNG taking a significant step down in the overall rankings. Generally EDG are more consistent performers against the elite teams in the LPL while RNG take a bit of a hit. There’s also a unique angle regarding RNG against teams with strong top lane talent where they tend to struggle as well and that was even before the book was published on how to punish that by FPX.

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge) vs top nine teams only:

even lighter RNG value

Conclusion: Small value on RNG but this is surprisingly a decent price.

 

Qualitative Analysis:

I think RNG are more vulnerable to teams that intelligently approach the game but there just aren’t as many of those as you’d think in the LPL. They are capable of being a versatile team and have the chops to do so but they get tunnel vision on playing around Xiaohu and when they’ve lost it’s been because he’s been shut down. They have not fared well against elite top lane talent on smart teams like FPX. Flandre is an elite top laner and EDG are an incredibly smart team. I’d expect they want to leave their superior bottom lane on an island for this series and just take Xiaohu out of the game. That’s what I would do.

Ultimately I think either of these teams win and I’d give a very slight edge to EDG overall which is matched in the market price. I could see the logic in saying “these two are even, just take the underdog” but I think EDG are better equipped where it matters in this matchup. If you want to attack the top lane, having a superior 2v2 bottom lane I think offers you a lot more flexibility. Alternatively, they could just play around Viper and Meiko and leave top lane to be an island where I think Flandre might get the better in a tank vs tank or weak side situation. I also think Scout is playing at maybe the best level in his career right now so I don’t want to mess with that either.

The best thing RNG have going for them is Wei vs Jiejie. If they win this series it’s because Wei the solos on RNG outmaneuver EDG’s.

Generally I think this is an accurate price, maybe a little heavy handed on EDG but I won’t be playing a side in this contest.

Conclusion: Slight strategic advantage to EDG. No play.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Combined AVG kills per game: 26.07

Odds-Weighted: 26.977

Time-Implied: 27.069

Underdog Win: 26.298

“Gelati” Total Projection: 26.69 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 35.42% (EDG 33.33% / RNG 37.5%)

Volatility Rating:  EDG 0.27919 / RNG 0.27845 (League Avg: 0.3107)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

(alt) UNDER 27.5 @ -143 (VERY strong)

UNDER 26.5 @ -112 (strong)

(alt) UNDER 25.5 @ +105 (moderate-strong)

—-

Team Totals:

RNG team total OVER 12.5 @ -105 (strong)

EDG League Average RNG
Combined Kills / game 25.590 26.09 26.550
Combined Kills / min 0.809 0.87 0.888
Kills per win 18.294 18.09 17.955
Kills per loss 8.344 8.86 9.213
Deaths per win 7.29 8.19 8.31
Deaths per loss 15.50 17.93 17.91
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 9.55 9.57 9.79
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 6.63 9.61 8.55

 (top normal composite / bottom only vs top nine teams)

EDG League Average RNG
Combined Kills / game 25.205 26.18 28.361
Combined Kills / min 0.790 0.87 0.906
Kills per win 18.031 18.20 19.960
Kills per loss 8.438 8.85 9.063
Deaths per win 7.07 8.20 8.86
Deaths per loss 15.14 17.86 17.00
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 8.93 9.58 10.64
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 6.14 9.55 8.00

The tricky thing with this matchup is that these team teams remain less statistically volatile against top nine teams than the league average so despite having high averages and projections, the under is still a strong play with less than 39% of games going over the total. League wide, kill totals have been about 50/50 in the playoffs (20-19 over-under). I think specifically with how these two play the game, more controlled and methodical, although sometimes unorthodox with RNG, that we’ll more than likely get a few unders. Unless you think these games are complete clown fiestas. RNG games sometimes get that way. The measuring stick we have for recent performance with these two is against TOP and FPX who are both very high velocity and high kill teams. Don’t be thrown off by that. The regular season series between these two was 24, 19, 26 which I think is more in line with expectation here. I like this under quite a bit. I’m going to pay for the point up to 27.5 which I usually don’t do but there is a massive gap in value based on frequency with less than 14% of EDG games going over this total (41% for RNG).

 

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time:  31.885 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 31.7 / 31.75

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 46.86% (EDG 48.72% / RNG 45%)

Volatility Rating: EDG 0.14995 / RNG 0.16541 (League Avg: 0.16093)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

EDG RNG
Average Game Time 31.98 31.79
Avg Game Time (in wins) 31.82 32.32
Avg Game Time (in losses) 32.590 30.388

(top normal composite / bottom only vs top nine teams)

EDG RNG
Average Game Time 32.61 32.69
Avg Game Time (in wins) 32.68 34.06
Avg Game Time (in losses) 32.460 30.302

When applying the filter the model leans slightly toward the over and shows a few cents of value on that market price but nothing worth betting from a numbers perspective. No play here but lean over with how these two tend to play but I think we’ll likely get 3-4 games very close to this number.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -208 (strong)

EDG first blood @ -114 (moderate-strong)**

RNG first tower @ +106 (moderate)**

EDG first dragon @ -143 (moderate)**

OVER 1.5 barons @ +132 (moderate)

** denotes advantage in a category that the opponent is also strong in, must be considered

EDG first blood and first tower actually get better after using the top nine only filter. As I’ve mentioned, in general, EDG have performed better against the top teams than otherwise. UNDER 12.5 towers remains strong. 24 out of 39 playoff games have gone under 12.5 towers and these two teams in particular score very low even adjusted for opponent.

OVER 1.5 barons becomes significantly stronger play in this instance as well.

RNG’s first become significantly worse with the top nine filter with only herald being a +EV position.

I’ll be on under towers and over barons.

 

My Picks:

 

Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 27.5 @ -143 (1.43 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 27.5 @ -139 (1.39 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 UNDER 27.5 @ -132 (1.32 units)

Kill Total: Map 4 UNDER 27.5 @ -135 (1.35 units)

Kill Total: Map 5 UNDER 27.5 @ -135 (1.35 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -208 (2.08 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -200 (2 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -192 (1.92 units)

Prop: Map 4 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -185 (1.85 units)

Prop: Map 5 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -196 (1.96 units)

Prop: Map 1 OVER 1.5 barons @ +132 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 OVER 1.5 barons @ +131 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 3 OVER 1.5 barons @ +140 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 4 OVER 1.5 barons @ +135 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 5 OVER 1.5 barons @ +136 (1 unit)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

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