Getting ahead of the curve on my writing for the week I’m getting this out a day earlier to you all. The LPL is finished but I’ll be updating the LCK portion of the post later Tuesday night or Wednesday afternoon.


Wednesday, March 3rd Recap

 

eStar vs RareAtom (Net: +2.09 units)

It was such a relief seeing a team volunteer to take the tower bottom lane instead of swapping their bottom lane up to a pointless herald fight that you won’t win against an Olaf. I have no idea why this extremely simple concept took so long to catch on but I’m glad to see RareAtom using their noggin. I legitimately think they won this game because they didn’t take a stupid fight there, kept the pace slow, and just outscaled the Olaf even after a good start for him. You had Tristana vs Lucian late game, you weren’t going to lose this the longer it went. This game was not as close as the box score might say. RareAtom were in full control the whole time and intelligently didn’t play into eStar’s bar room brawl style early game.

Cube overextended again early on to give H4cker first blood. Leyan then had a weird invade that he got caught on shortly after. Not sure what the thought process was here but this game got a little insane right off the bat. eStar opened this game with five kills in the first 12 minutes and a few thousand gold in over RareAtom. At the third dragon fight, Hang managed to tag Insulator with his Rakan and they instantly popped him, won the fight, and flipped it into a baron and this game was suddenly in RareAtom’s control. eStar had a decent scaling composition with Xayah+Azir so it wasn’t completely over. ShiauC got caught trying to make a cute bush flank play in the bottom river which didn’t amount to anything but RareAtom’s first dragon. Shortly afterwards RareAtom won an excellently played 5v5 fight in mid and won the game.

Hang was an absolute machine in this series making so many key plays in high leverage situations. I tend to think playmakers are overrated by the public sometimes but I think it’s important for every team to have “that guy” and in this case it was Hang. Cube, on the other hand, had probalby his worst series of the season from a decision making standpoint. His choices on the first dozen waves or so in this game cost him early in both games. He recovered nicely but had to get bailed out by his team. RareAtom won this despite Cube having an off day and that’s impressive.

Make no mistake, eStar share plenty of the blame in this series but RareAtom won through superior team fighting on multiple occasions even against deficits.

 

LGD Gaming vs Team WE (Net: -2.0 units)

I don’t really have much to take away from this one. Beishang almost singlehandedly embarrassed LGD. This was maybe the most lopsided series of the season. LGD managed one decent fight in two games and this series was over in under 55 minutes. WE looked dominant.

LPL Net Total: +0.09 units

 

Daily Net Total: +0.09 units

Week of March 1st-7th: +6.25 units

 

 


 

LOL Pro League (China)

Week 7 – Day 4

 

OMG +779 (+1.5 maps @ +122, -1.5 @ +1400)

vs

TOP Esports -1429 (-1.5 maps @ -312)

 

Map ML Price: OMG +490 / TOP -909

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +246 / -357)

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -111 / under -120)

Kill Spread: +10.5 @ -119 / -10.5 @ -112

 Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 17.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over +102 / under -139)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

TOP -1.5 maps @ -312 (moderate)

UNDER 2.5 maps @ -357 (moderate)

TOP series moneyline @ -1429 (moderate-light)

TOP map moneyline @ -909 (light)

 

Do you know how statistically superior you have to be for a model to suggest value at these levels of moneyline? Well, TOP are. I don’t think you can really play OMG here unless you’re convinced that TOP maybe start a sub or something (we haven’t seen that at all this season and barely last season once they settled). TOP are beatable but not with the kinds of things OMG have been doing. Maybe TOP take the day off? Trust me, if there was a good reason to back the dogs here I promise I’d be all over it but outside of speculation it’s tough to make any kind of case. I rarely lay this kind of money to sweep these days but that’s the play, especially because TOP are still behind in the standings and have some catching up to do. I doubt they’ll play around too much here.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 25.632

Time-Implied: 26.412

Underdog Win: 32.315

“Gelati” Total Projection: 25.881 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total:  46.925% (TOP 52.94% / OMG 40.91%)

Volatility Rating: TOP 0.34609 / OMG 0.34229 (League Avg: 0.3016)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

TOP team total UNDER 17.5 @ -106 (moderate)

OMG team total UNDER @ -111 (light)

 

Both of these teams have been very volatile in their kill totals with a lot of results on both sides of the spectrum and not a lot in the middle. Historically, TOP have absolutely toyed with their food when playing against the bad teams and run the score up but I don’t like relying on that to “get there.”

You could make a reasonable case for the OMG +10.5 kills but that’s only if you think TOP do NOT run the score up. TOP are no strangers to covering massive kill spreads. I’ll dodge that bullet. I normally like double digit kill spreads too.

 

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 30.512

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 30.68 / 30.46

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 44.92% (TOP 35.29% / OMG 54.54%

Volatility Rating: TOP 0.16002 / OMG 0.16510 (League Avg: 0.15452)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

Lean to the under but not play here.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OMG first dragon @ +115 (VERY strong)*

TOP first blood @ -192 (strong) (lol)

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -312 (moderate)

OMG first herald @ +149 (moderate)

TOP first dragon @ -167 (light)*

OVER 1.5 barons @ +149 (light)

 

Lots of choices on the menu here and this is typically how I like to attack these really lopsided matches. Both of these teams are strong dragon teams so the plus money on OMG isn’t a bad look but I was hoping we’d get a better number. TOP are landing first blood at an impressive rate this season and the model suggests an edge there but there’s just no way in hell I’m laying -192 on such a high variance prop. TOP are such a strong objective team that frankly I’m not sure I like any of these. I would think TOP probably just herald snowball this out which would suggest a play on OMG first dragon if you had to pick one. I’m just going to take the under towers and call it a day. Boring I know.

 

My Picks:

 

Map Spread: TOP -1.5 maps @ -312 (3.12 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -312 (3.12 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -303 (3.03 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -303 (3.03 units)

 

 

 


 

 

Royal Never Give Up -400 (-1.5 maps @ -120, +1.5 @ -2000)

vs

LNG Esports +310 (+1.5 maps @ -111, -1.5 @ +723)

 

Map ML Price: RNG -303 / LNG +213

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +134 / under -179)

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -120 / under -111)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -130 / +6.5 @ -103

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -132 / under -103)

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

LNG +1.5 maps @ -111 (moderate)

LNG series moneyline @ +310 (moderate-light)

LNG map moneyline @ +213 (light)

OVER 2.5 maps @ +134 (light)

 

LNG got off the schneid with a swift 2-0 sweep of Victory Five. They looked very good but as we’ve mentioned many times before, Victory Five are win fast-lose fast team so don’t overreact to the result here. Prior to that series they’d dropped three straight without winning a single game but it was two three strong teams in TOP, RareAtom, and FPX so it’s forgivable.

RNG continue to roll after a slight hiccup against BiliBili. With wins over Invictus, Rogue Warriors, and most recently FunPlus it’s hard not to be excited about this RNG squad who are dominating even with Xiaohu learning a new role on-the-fly. It’s impressive. That said, it’s important to look at the how and not just the results. RNG haven’t been particularly dominant in the early game but their intelligent drafting (cheese top picks aside) and overall excellent macro play has been the way they’re winning. In essence, they’re like a really souped up version of DRX or maybe FlyQuest in 2020 if you’ll pardon the cross-regional comparisons. Essentially they’re a team that “plays smart,” minimizes mistakes, and capitalizes when you screw up.

RNG haven’t really shown us much in terms of execution heavy, tempo or pace-based compositions despite having excellent players to do it with. I think this could be a potential hurdle in their development long-term but for now, unless they’re against a team with a ridiculous early game or the other elite level teams, it’s going to be tough to go against RNG.

Other than a 2021 debut win against Invictus, LNG haven’t beaten a top tier team. In fact, they haven’t really come close at all. Wins over Victory Five and BiliBili earn them enough credit to be rather squarely in that mid tier. I think they’re a team that’s just barely going to miss the playoffs but I’m not exactly upset about it considering their performances against the top teams.

I’m going against my model and backing RNG here. There’s a chance we see a  “backs against the wall” rally or all-in mentality for LNG when it comes to this match but they’re not the type of team that’s going to punish RNG at where they’re weak which would be my main concern if I was backing them. Other than a weird game vs BLG, RNG have really only lost games when they were at a deficit and LNG have been one of the worst early game teams in terms of pace and economy (13th in the LPL in the economy/objective model). You’re going to want early game dominant teams against RNG and LNG aren’t that. I also think we’ve seen some suspect performances from Ale and with Xiaohu showing proficiency on some of the potent Gnar counters, I’m not sure M1kuya will be the one to punish him either.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 26.421

Time-Implied: 26.022

Underdog Win: 24.825

“Gelati” Total Projection: 25.869 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 47.046% (RNG 59.09% / LNG 35%)

Volatility Rating: RNG 0.30685 / LNG 0.32335 (League Avg: 0.3016)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

(alt) UNDER 25.5 kills @ -125 (moderate-strong)

LNG team total OVER 8.5 kills @ -132 (moderate)

(alt) UNDER 26.5 kills @ -143 (moderate)

UNDER 24.5 kills @ -111 (miniscule)

 

I’m a little more bullish on the under than the model is here. With both of these teams, the pace of play is rather slow and while the kill per win/loss indicates a slight lean to the over, the way I see these games playing out strongly suggests the under which is where I’ll be.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 32.115

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 32.31 / 32.18

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total:  47.5% (RNG 50% / LNG 45%)

Volatility Rating: RNG 0.17076 / LNG 0.14256 (League Avg: 0.15452)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 31:00 @ -103 (light)

 

Going against the model again based on the game script. It’s certainly possible we see a snowball from either of these teams but I don’t think it’s particularly likely as neither like to push the pace of the game. LNG are one of the slower teams in the league and RNG tend to take their time as well albeit not quite as much.

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

LNG first tower @ +125 (VERY strong)*

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -303 (strong)

LNG first herald @ +119 (moderate)

LNG first blood @ +115 (light)

OVER 1.5 barons @ +150 (light)

RNG first blood @ -156 (light)

OVER 4.5 dragons @ -145 (miniscule)

 

RNG, like TOP, have been an excellent overall objective team without a real weakness in that aspect. They’re versatile and cater their game plan to their opponents. If they’re facing a herald team, they won’t try to push a square peg through a round hole, they’ll just settle for dragon or draft a team that can contest to disrupt. They’re not all-in on either, they play what they think will beat their opponent. I still think at +125 that LNG first tower isn’t a bad look if you wanted some action on these but I’ll be passing.

The under 12.5 towers I’m less bullish on in this situation. With both teams willing to take things slowly that actually favors the under because not enough momentum develops for either side to form any kind of cross-map race but I do think these games could get long and back-and-forth a bit so I’m staying away in this spot. If anything I’d lean to the over at +200 against the model suggestion.

I like the OVER 4.5 dragons quite a bit in this match. The odds share my sentiment and I’m already playing the time total over so I won’t be playing it but if you don’t have access to the 31:00 the over 4.5 dragons is a decent replacement.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: RNG -400 (2 units)

Map Spread: RNG -1.5 maps @ -120 (0.6 units)

Time Total: Map 1 OVER 31:00 @ -132 (1.32 units)

Time Total: Map 2 OVER 31:00 @ -132 (1.32 units)

Time Total: Map 3 OVER 31:00 @ -132 (1.32 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 24.5 @ -111 (1.11 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 24.5 @ -109 (1.09 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 UNDER 24.5 @ +103 (1 unit)

 


LOL Champions Korea (LCK)

Week 7 – Day 1

 

LOL Champions Korea

Week 7 – Day 1

Dealing with a few hangups with the model, will be updating the metrics/projections later tonight after recording the podcast.

 

A few words on the LCK Playoff Picture:

This is the first season the LCK isn’t doing the gauntlet style playoff meaning that it’s going to get six teams instead of five into playoffs.

As it stands now, DAMWON And Gen.G are more or less locked for playoff spots and will likely be the #1 and #2. Sandbox and Brion are more than likely eliminated unless multiple mid table teams fall off a cliff.

Quite literally the rest is up for grabs. The other six teams it’s anybody’s ballgame. I think 9 or 10 wins gets the job done so it’s really quite wide open with most teams having 6 or 7 matches remaining.


 

KT Rolster +118 (+1.5 maps @ -270, -1.5 @ +312)

vs

DRX -143 (-1.5 maps @ +203, +1.5 @ -455)

 

Map ML Price: KT +104 / DRX -133

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over -105 / under -120)

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -120 / under -109) or 24.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: +3.5 @ -118 / -3.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 34:00 (over -102 / under -128)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

KT series moneyline @ +118 (light)

KT +1.5 maps @ -270 (very light)

KT map moneyline @ +108 (very light)

 

So it’s abundantly clear that this KT roster isn’t quite as good as I thought it would be before the season. That’s not a new discovery at this point but the introduction of Gideon has been at least a little promising so far. The problem hasn’t been individual players as much as the full team being incapable of putting everything together, a problem that’s been far too common even for this early in the year. KT were absolutely stomped by Afreeca last Friday and barely crossed the finish line by having to beat dragon souls in back-to-back games to 2-0 that series in one of the most unimpressive manners I’ve seen. In short, the spikes are there but the consistency is not. I’d say KT are firmly in the middle of the table but even that isn’t certain. They’re the most volatile team in the LCK to me.

DRX finally, FINALLY gave us a more realistic performance for their numbers. Even in this series they nearly brought back game one from a 5000 gold deficit but they did fall 0-2 to Hanwha. My opinion on this team hasn’t really changed. They’re fraudulent in regards to their performance versus their results but there are things they do well. They have solid drafts and team fight well. If teams aren’t good at taking advantages of the leads DRX tend to give up then they’re usually well-equipped to win in the late game. My concern, as I’ve said a million times, is that this isn’t going to lead to long-term success. If you can never even threaten uptempo looks it makes drafting against you exponentially easier. Hanwha had a GREAT game plan for this series with the Karthus jungle.

KT won the first meeting between these two 2-0. For those that don’t remember, this was one of the few uptempo looking draft DRX have tried more or less the entire season (Nocturne mid + Rumble top). I doubt we’ll see that again. These are two teams that have absolute no problem with taking things slow and steady. Both have had solid performances in the later stages of games with deficits. In these kinds of matchups I’ll always like the underdog unless there is a drastic overall quality difference. Give me KT here and not just because I think DRX are going to have some meteoric fall from grace or anything, I just think that when you have two teams that play a similar way and neither is clearly better than the other just take the plus money. It’s close to a coin flip.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 24.247

Time-Implied: 24.458

Underdog Win: 27.07

“Gelati” Total Projection: 24.411 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 50% (DRX 37.04% / KT 62.96%)

Volatility Rating: DRX 0.34358 / KT 0.29267 (League Avg: 0.3170)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

DRX team total UNDER 12.5 @ -103 (moderate-strong)

(alt) UNDER 24.5 @ -120 (light)

(alt) UNDER 25.5 @ -145 (very light)

 

KT have gone OVER the game total in 12 out of 16 attempts as underdogs with an average total of 23.5. DRX have tended to go under as favorites. I think KT are live to win this outright and they’ve scored a lot of kills in wins at 17.9 kills per win. That would suggest an over play which I’m going to go with against my model here.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 33.871 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted:33.98 / 33.95

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 40.74% (DRX 29.63% / KT 51.85%)

Volatility Rating: DRX 0.14401 / KT 0.16876 (League Avg: 0.15110)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 34:00 @ -128 (light)

 

My gut is to take the over but 34:00 is a very high number even for these two. I’ll pass. I’d expect these all to end pretty close to this number.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

 OVER 11.5 towers @ -123 (moderate)

OVER 1.5 barons @ +135 (moderate)

OVER 4.5 dragons @ -145 (light)

 

I really like the over dragons/barons play a lot here. The over 11.5 towers just for perspective… DRX have gone over that total in more than 70% of their contests and KT 55+%. The over 4.5 dragons honestly feels like a lock given the anticipated game time. I don’t see either of these teams really steamrolling. I like it more than the model does.

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: KT Rolster +118 (1 unit)

Map Spread: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ +312 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 1 OVER 4.5 dragons @ -145 (1.45 units)

Prop: Map 2 OVER 4.5 dragons @ -172 (1.72 units)

Prop: Map 3 OVER 4.5 dragons @ -182 (1.82 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 23.5 @ -119 (0.595 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 23.5 @ -120 (0.6 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 OVER 23.5 @ -128 (0.64 units)

 

 


Fredit BRION +424 (+1.5 maps @ +122, -1.5 @ +883)

vs

T1 -588 (-1.5 maps @ -156, +1.5 @ -2500)

 

Map ML Price: BRO +270 / T1 -370

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +163 / under -213)

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -111 / -7.5 @ -118

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -106 / under -125)

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

T1 series moneyline @ -588 (moderate)

T1 -1.5 maps @ -156 (moderate)

T1 map moneyline @ -370 (light)

UNDER 2.5 maps @ -213 (very light)

 

 

I’d assume we see T1 Junior for this matchup but as always with T1 matches, check the pre-game lineups on social media closer to game time (if announced). Generally, kill total overs when Clozer is in and slightly less confidence to cleanly dispatch teams but more explosive upside to stomp. When Faker is in feels more reliable to win but how is likely more methodical and controlled.

T1 played Zeus, Oner, Clozer, Teddy, and Keria against DAMWON and managed to take game two after a thorough stomping in game one before getting rolled again in game three. I’d guess we see the young guns again against Brion. They’re looking a lot better with Oner and Zeus than they were with Canna and Ellim at the beginning of the season. Side note: It’s kind of crazy to think that I just said that last sentence after last year… I digress. T1 are legitimately good and steadily improving no matter which lineup seems to be playing they’re just slightly different when they do it as detailed above. Other than Gen.G and DAMWON they should probably be favored over everyone else regardless of who starts. They’re going to be a little volatile at times with the younger lineup but I do think they’re the #3 team in the LCK even over Hanwha.

I haven’t been backing the Clozer-lead lineup to sweep series but I think against Brion there’s just such a massive talent gap in every position that I feel comfortable laying the chalk with T1 here.

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 23.707

Time-Implied: 24.576

Underdog Win: 23.228

“Gelati” Total Projection: 24.101 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 55.03% (T1 51.72% / BRO 58.33%)

Volatility Rating: T1 0.32778 / BRO 0.31269 (League Avg: 0.3170)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

T1 team total UNDER 14.5 @ -110 (strong)

Brion team total OVER 8.5 @ -102 (strong)

OVER 22.5 @ -119 (miniscule)

 

 As usual, if Clozer is in, which I’d assume will happen here, I like T1 overs and game total overs quite a bit more than with Faker in the lineup as discussed above. Otherwise pass.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 32.957

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 32.8 / 32.69

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 58.84% (T1 55.17% / BRO 62.5%)

Volatility Rating: T1 0.13476 / BRO 0.16968 (League Avg: 0.1511)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 32:00 @ -105 (moderate)

 

T1 won the first meeding un under 50 minutes. Most of the games for both of these teams have gone over this season so I could see the reason the model likes this but I have a feeling we see a T1 blowout here so I’ll pass.

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Brion first dragon @ +115 (strong)

T1 first tower @ -222 (light)

Brion first blood @ +118  (light)

 

If you’re looking for an alternative way to play T1 the first tower is a pretty strong play here. Brion have only picked up first tower in 12% of games. I’m just passing this. I’d go against the model and take under 4.5 dragons and under 12.5 towers here as well. I like both honestly. I’ll be on the under 12.5 towers instead of a similar total stake on the moneyline.

 

My Picks:

 

Regardless of who plays:

 

Map Spread: T1 -1.5 maps @ -156 (1.56 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -213 (2.13 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -213 (2.13 units)

(see below for a parlay play)

 

IF Clozer plays (likely): 

Kill Total (team): Map 1 T1 OVER 14.5 @ -119 (1.19 units)

Kill Total (team): Map 2 T1 OVER 14.5 @ -119 (1.19 units)

 

Round Robin Parlay:

TOP vs OMG Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -238

TOP vs OMG Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -238

T1 vs BRO Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -213

T1 vs BRO Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -213

 

Each iteration of these. The TOP line has actually dropped significantly since I put the play in yesterday even better for us.

TOP Map 1 + T1 Map 1

TOP Map 1 + T1 Map 2

TOP Map 2  + T1 Map 1

TOP Map 2 + T1 Map 2

each at +109 (1 unit each)

 

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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