Tuesday, March 23rd Recap

 

TOP Esports vs ThunderTalk (TT) (Net: -1.57 units)

Not too much to say on this one. TOP just outclassed TT in every way shape and form. It wasn’t perfect and they toyed around a little too much for my liking but TOP dominated.

Team WE vs EDward Gaming (Net: +0.5 units)

What an absolute no-show by Team WE in this contest. I don’t know if they just weren’t up for it or didn’t get a good nights sleep or what but this was without a doubt the worst series they played this entire season. Shanks was completely asleep at the wheel in this one. Game one you’ve got a full-court press type composition with three shoving lanes and you’re suddenly worried about getting the wave reset instead of helping your Udyr with a scuttle or invade or moving to bot for a dive? Also, where’s the flash my man? The early roam/dive window was closed and it was getting ready to transition out of early game, what’s the beef with not flashing the gank? There were three separate instances of this specific non-flashing negligence in this series alone and WE just seemed to have no idea what to do about that.

What’s so frustrating about this is that I was hoping we’d get a decent read on what these teams are for playoffs but instead I have absolutely nothing to take from this series. WE are better than this. This wasn’t an EDG stomping it was a complete no-show by WE. Any playoff caliber team would have done the same exact thing to WE. Sucks. I really wanted a data point here, win or not.

LPL Net Total: -1.07 units

 

Daily Net Total: -1.07 units

 

 

Last Week (March 15th-21st):  -16.94 units (-11.17% ROI)

 

 


LOL Pro League (China)

Week 10 – Day 4

 

 

Rogue Warriors +521 (+1.5 maps @ +164, -1.5 @ +1300)

vs

LNG Esports -909 (-1.5 maps @ -213)

 

 

Map ML Price: RW +313 / LNG -455

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +207 / under -278)

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -120 / under -108)

Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -105 / -8.5 @ -122

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over +101 / under -130)

 

 

 (Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

LNG Tale of the Tape Rogue Warriors
-274.0 Gold Diff @ 10 min -501.4
-385.2 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1083.8
14.6 Gold Diff @ 20 min -845.4
0.8 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -83.5
-15.3 Gold Diff / min first 20 -156.9
349.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 42.4
1775.3 Gold /min (GPM) 1617.9
-29.1 Gold / min vs Avg -186.5
-41.4 Gold Diff / min -348.4
-0.5 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -4.9
1608.6 Kill Agnostic GPM 1491.8
-37.9 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -215.2
1968.5 GPM in wins 1943.8
379.9 Gold Diff per min in wins 221.7
1633.0 GPM in losses 1584.2
-351.9 Gold Diff per min in losses -407.4
-43.4 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -350.4
3.5 Win-Adjusted GPM -21.2
52.8 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -105.4
48.3 Dragon Control % 36.4
43.8 Herald Control % 54.0
34.1 Baron Control % 22.5
7.0 Quality Wins? 1.0
50.0 % of wins as Quality 33.3

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

RW +1.5 maps @ +164 (VERY strong)

RW series moneyline @ +521 (strong)

OVER 2.5 maps @ +207 (strong)

RW map moneyline @ +313 (strong)

 

With a win LNG lock in playoffs. LNG have yet to drop a match to a non-playoff team this season and have only dropped three games, one each to BLG, LGD, and TT. If I had to pick one team to break the mold and be the team in the middle of the gaping canyon between the top half and bottom half teams in this league it’d be LNG. For the most part they’ve taken care of business against the teams they’re supposed to beat with very strong gold differential per minute in wins and short, decisive wins. They just struggle against the top teams. LNG aren’t good but they certainly aren’t bad. They actually have the 6th best win-adjusted gold per minute and 5th best win-adjusted gold differential in the league ahead of a few people you’d be surprised about like JDG. So the numbers line up with what I’m seeing.

Rogue Warriors have just a single game win since their surprise win against TOP all the way back in week two. That’s right folks, 1-26 in their past 27. Impressive. Rogue Warriors are not just losing a lot, but they’re losing in spectacular fashion with a league worst gold per minute and gold differential per minute in losses. This is not a professional caliber team which is amazing to say with the names on this roster but they’ve clearly checked out.

This would be the spot where they actually win one wouldn’t it? Of course it would… I want no part of this like the model does. It’s simply too much to pay for LNG but I’m certainly not backing this Rogue Warriors team.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 25.927

Time-Implied: 24.874

Underdog Win: 26.888

“Gelati” Total Projection: 25.186 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 58.475% (LNG 57.58% / RW 59.38%)

Volatility Rating:  LNG 0.28583 / RW 0.38105 (League Avg: 0.3046)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 23.5 @ -120 (moderate)

(alt) OVER 22.5 @ -167 (light)

—-

Team Totals:

LNG team total UNDER 15.5 @ -101 (strong)

 

LNG League Average RW
Combined Kills / game 23.216 26.45 25.969
Combined Kills / min 0.777 0.88 0.849
Kills per win 17.022 18.29 20.000
Kills per loss 6.888 9.13 8.605
Deaths per win 5.00 8.20 11.00
Deaths per loss 17.00 18.00 17.72
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 11.36 9.57 4.33
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 9.58 9.61 9.83

 

This is actually one of the rare situations where I’d take a favorite kill spread. When LNG win they’re doing so very decisively and despite scoring low in kills relative to the league, they’re also not allowing their opponents to get many. You’re “average” LNG win looks like a 17-5 kill, 4 dragon snowball. Very clean, very crisp. I’ll sell a kill down to closer to even money as well.

 

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 30.603 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 30.79 / 31.48

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 41.52% (LNG 42.42% / RW 40.625%)

Volatility Rating: LNG 0.13993 / RW 0.14825 (League Avg: 0.16106)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 31:00 @ -130 (moderate)

 

LNG RW
Average Game Time 30.81 30.40
Avg Game Time (in wins) 29.42 37.79
Avg Game Time (in losses) 31.824 29.636

 

I agree with the model here. When LNG do win it’s usually rather decisively. There’s the added bonus that they happen to lose quickly. IF they happen to drop a game in this series I could see it being via a cheese draft from Rogue Warriors just catching them completely off guard.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

RW first herald @ +107 (VERY strong)**

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -244 (strong)

OVER 1.5 barons @ +230 (moderate-strong)

 

I’ll take the under 12.5 towers here for sure.

 

** denotes advantage in a position that the opponent is also strong in, must be considered

 

 

My Picks:

 

Kill Spread: Map 1 LNG -9.5 kills @ +104 (1 unit)

Kill Spread: Map 2 LNG -9.5 kills @ +106 (1 unit)

Kill Spread: Map 3 LNG -8.5 kills @ -104 (1.04 units)

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 31:00 @ -130 (1.3 units)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 31:00 @ -132 (1.32 units)

Time Total: Map 3 UNDER 31:00 @ -123 (1.23 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -244 (2.44 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -250 (2.5 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -227 (2.27 units)

 

 


 

LGD Gaming +530 (+1.5 maps @ +155, -1.5 @ +1300)

vs

Invictus Gaming -909 (-1.5 maps @ -200)

 

 

Map ML Price: LGD +349 / IG -526

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +193 / under -256)

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -106 / under -122)

Kill Spread: +9.5 @ -114 / -9.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 18.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over +134 / under -175)

 

 (Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

Invictus Tale of the Tape LGD
829.2 Gold Diff @ 10 min -512.7
903.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1395.9
1003.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -892.8
45.4 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -135.1
47.0 Gold Diff / min first 20 -101.2
85.2 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 434.4
1826.5 Gold /min (GPM) 1710.2
22.1 Gold / min vs Avg -94.2
66.8 Gold Diff / min -171.4
0.9 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.3
1607.5 Kill Agnostic GPM 1565.8
40.5 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -104.3
1990.8 GPM in wins 1889.8
388.5 Gold Diff per min in wins 233.8
1618.4 GPM in losses 1620.4
-340.7 Gold Diff per min in losses -374.1
64.8 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -173.4
25.8 Win-Adjusted GPM -75.1
61.4 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -93.3
61.5 Dragon Control % 45.9
42.6 Herald Control % 34.8
67.6 Baron Control % 36.4
13.0 Quality Wins? 4.0
68.4 % of wins as Quality 36.4

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

LGD +1.5 maps @ +155 (strong)

OVER 2.5 maps @ +193 (moderate-strong)

LGD map moneyline @ +349 (moderate-strong)

LGD series moneyline @ +530 (moderate)

 

I can’t be the only one that feels like this is a CLASSIC spot for Invictus to lose or screw around. The best they can do right now is hope for a Suning loss to move up to #8 but they’re likely going to face Suning or RareAtom without side selection either way. LNG can’t catch them. There’s no reason for them to really try in this spot unless you think they want to battle for side selection.

I could definitely see a little horsing around here. Maybe it’s a weird pick, maybe it’s just general buffoonery but Invictus are no strangers to having a little fun.

LGD are coming off of their “nightmare” week where they had three matches in six days including one on a single day’s rest. They took a series off of RareAtom in a stunning upset, immediately lost a series to OMG, and then got utterly stomped by JDG. What a rollercoaster. While LGD occasionally look competent, this is still a very weak team. They rank dead last in gold per minute in wins, 2nd to last in win adjusted gold differential per minute, and dead last in win-adjusted gold per minute. They’re also in the bottom three in gold differential per minute in losses meaning that they’re losing badly when they do lose.

I could see backing LGD just because the number is ridiculous and Invictus might mess around a little here but I’m just going to stay away from sides in this one. I’ll probably take some Invictus kill spreads.

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 27.392

Time-Implied: 26.602

Underdog Win: 24.231

“Gelati” Total Projection: 26.695 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 41.756% (IG 44.12% / LGD 39.39%)

Volatility Rating:  IG 0.30961 / LGD 0.33094 (League Avg: 0.3046)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

(alt) UNDER 24.5 kills @ +116 (moderate)

UNDER 26.5 @ -122 (moderate)

—-

Team Totals:

IG team total UNDER 18.5 @ -125 (strong)

LGD team total OVER 8.5 @ -109 (light)

 

IG League Average LGD
Combined Kills / game 25.844 26.45 27.084
Combined Kills / min 0.923 0.88 0.859
Kills per win 19.645 18.29 17.969
Kills per loss 6.263 9.13 8.585
Deaths per win 8.58 8.20 8.73
Deaths per loss 17.87 18.00 16.86
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 11.32 9.57 8.55
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 10.47 9.61 9.82

 

This is tricky. My first instinct was to take the under here but Invictus have gone over this 18.5 total in 57.9% of their wins. The catch is that LGD are the 3rd least bloody loser in the LPL in a tier with EDG, Suning, and WE. If you just go by the time projection below we’d get a 26.602 total. The league average in the projected time here would be 26.27. 26.5 is a sharp number. I do tend to think this is more likely a lopsided Invictus stomp than not but the way the vast majority of LPL series have gone this season it splits one and one so it’s not worth the juice in this specific spot.

Invictus are remarkably consistent in how hard they win when they do which aligns with historical performance for them. When IG win they utterly destroy you. They have the lowest average margin of victory volatility rating in the LPL and win games by an average margin of 11.32 kills per game. I’ll take the kill spreads here.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 29.851 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 29.51 / 29.77

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 41.93% (IG 32.35% / LGD 51.52%)

Volatility Rating: IG 0.14602 / LGD 0.18016 (League Avg: 0.16106)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

IG LGD
Average Game Time 29.06 30.64
Avg Game Time (in wins) 29.12 34.52
Avg Game Time (in losses) 28.983 28.702

IG win fast and lose fast, LGD lose fast and win slow. These time totals have been ridiculous the past two weeks with all the blowouts but I do think it’s the correct position in this scenario. This is an expensive price and the model doesn’t like this play for that reason but I’m going to be taking it for a half stake.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

LGD first dragon @ +141 (VERY strong)**

IG first dragon @ -192 (moderate)**

OVER 1.5 barons @ +213 (moderate)

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -323 (light)

 

** denotes advantage in a position that the opponent is also strong in, must be considered

Given that these are both dragon teams I actually don’t hate the near coin flip on first dragon but Invictus are REALLY good at landing first dragon (league best 73.5%). I’ll pass but that’s a decent shot to take.

 

 

My Picks:

 

Kill Spread: Map 1 IG -9.5 kills @ -114 (1.14 units)

Kill Spread: Map 2 IG -9.5 kills @ -111 (1.11 units)

Kill Spread: Map 3 IG -8.5 kills @ -110 (1.1 units)

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 30:00 @ -175 (0.875 units)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 30:00 @ -175 (0.875 units)

Time Total: Map 3 UNDER 30:00 @ -175 (0.875 units)

 


LOL Champions Korea (LCK)

Week 10 – Day 1

 

 

Hanwha Life Esports -435 (-1.5 maps @ -125, +1.5 @ -2000)

vs

Fredit Brion +302 (+1.5 maps @ -101, -1.5 @ +794)

 

 

Map ML Price: HLE -303 / BRO +227

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +145 / under -189)

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -122 / under -106)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -108 / +6.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -127 / under -102)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

HLE Tale of the Tape BRO
-33.2 Gold Diff @ 10 min -96.4
-121.1 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1368.5
-159.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1277.9
18.2 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -50.3
24.4 Gold Diff / min first 20 -99.6
236.8 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -294.9
1848.5 Gold /min (GPM) 1694.2
63.6 Gold / min vs Avg -90.7
97.2 Gold Diff / min -159.2
1.4 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.2
1643.8 Kill Agnostic GPM 1563.6
57.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -120.1
1968.4 GPM in wins 1847.8
348.1 Gold Diff per min in wins 188.5
1660.0 GPM in losses 1603.4
-296.9 Gold Diff per min in losses -364.7
100.2 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -156.2
40.9 Win-Adjusted GPM -79.8
62.2 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -97.4
60.2 Dragon Control % 47.3
42.3 Herald Control % 29.9
55.8 Baron Control % 35.4
8.0 Quality Wins? 9.0
36.4 % of wins as Quality 69.2

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

HLE series moneyline @ -435 (moderate-strong)

HLE -1.5 maps @ -125 (moderate-strong)

HLE map moneyline @ -303 (moderate-light)

UNDER 2.5 maps @ -189 (very light)

 

The final week of the LCK Spring regular season should actually be pretty interesting. Besides #1 which DAMWON has already secured, nothing is certain. The #6 seed which is still up in the air between four teams.  Battling for the 2nd through 5th seed are Gen.G, Hanwha Life, T1, and DRX.  Top two in the LCK gets a bye for the first round.

Currently Hanwha sit in third place one match win ahead of T1, one behind Gen.G. Gen.G just need to take a single game this week to secure the 2nd seed. Brion more or less need a 2-0 and then some help by other teams losing. In short, both teams should be game for this match.

I hate laying money with teams that are as stylistically volatile as Hanwha Life but this number is just too good not to get a piece of. I’m not quite as bullish as my model on them but I still think there’s a reasonable edge to be had here. I’ll be on Hanwha in this series. Chovy is on another plane of existence at the moment and I have a hard time seeing non-elite teams overcoming that alone. He’s solo carrying harder than anybody I’ve seen in the past few years. It’s ridiculous, I think he’s your best player on the planet right now.

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 25.083

Time-Implied: 24.928

Underdog Win: 25.224

“Gelati” Total Projection: 24.878 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 54.68% (HLE 72.22% / BRO 37.14%)

Volatility Rating:  HLE 0.28582 / BRO 0.31516 (League Avg: 0.3103)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

(alt) UNDER 25.5 @ -143 (very light)

—-

Team Totals:

HLE team total OVER 14.5 @ -116 (moderate)

 

HLE League Average BRO
Combined Kills / game 26.368 24.70 22.907
Combined Kills / min 0.792 0.76 0.725
Kills per win 17.554 16.87 15.599
Kills per loss 9.625 8.67 7.472
Deaths per win 8.36 7.81 7.00
Deaths per loss 17.93 15.45
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 10.18 9.06 9.15
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 8.43 8.99 8.18

 

Hanwha have gone over this 14.5 number in well over 80% of their wins this season. They’re a super bloody team. Hell they could get to this even in a loss. Slam dunk for me. I like that more than the series number.

 

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 32.856 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 32.83 / 32.79

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 56.35% (HLE 55.55% / BRO 57.14%)

Volatility Rating: HLE 0.10331 / BRO 0.15288 (League Avg: 0.15504)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 32:00 @ -127 (miniscule)

 

HLE BRO
Average Game Time 32.53 33.18
Avg Game Time (in wins) 32.98 34.48
Avg Game Time (in losses) 31.823 32.412

 

Pass on this. I’ve mentioned how ridiculously consistent (not volatile) HLE are with time totals and it’s right around 32.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 1.5 barons @ +171 (strong)

BRO first dragon @ +104 (moderate-strong)

OVER 4.5 dragons @ -101 (light)

** denotes advantage in a position that the opponent is also strong in, must be considered

Brion have only picked up first tower in five games this season. HLE are hitting at more than 60%. That’s not on here but I’ve been playing this against Brion.

 

My Picks:

 

Kill Total (team): Map 1 HLE OVER 14.5 kills @ -125 (1.25 units)

Kill Total (team): Map 2 HLE OVER 14.5 kills @ -125 (1.25 units)

Kill Total (team): Map 3 HLE OVER 14.5 kills @ -111 (1.11 units)

Prop: Map 1 HLE first tower @ -182 (0.91 units)

Prop: Map 2 HLE first tower @ -189 (0.945 units)

Prop: Map 3 HLE first tower @ -179 (0.895 units)

 


 

KT Rolster +141 (+1.5 maps @ -208, -1.5 @ +373)

vs

Nongshim RedForce -182 (-1.5 maps @ +161, +1.5 @ -556)

 

 

Map ML Price: KT +135 / NS -172

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +111 / under -141)

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -119 / under -109)

Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -130 / -6.5 @ +100

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -119 / under -109)

 (Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

NS Tale of the Tape KT
-692.2 Gold Diff @ 10 min -326.3
-543.1 Gold Diff @ 15 min -866.2
-87.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1035.0
-33.8 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -24.3
-68.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 -68.2
-189.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -158.3
1715.7 Gold /min (GPM) 1751.3
-69.1 Gold / min vs Avg -33.5
-112.4 Gold Diff / min -88.4
-1.5 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -1.3
1559.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1613.2
-75.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -57.3
1872.4 GPM in wins 1936.2
251.3 Gold Diff per min in wins 234.2
1608.9 GPM in losses 1635.8
-360.4 Gold Diff per min in losses -290.0
-109.4 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -85.4
-55.1 Win-Adjusted GPM 8.6
-34.6 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -51.7
49.7 Dragon Control % 37.2
48.6 Herald Control % 44.2
40.4 Baron Control % 40.3
1.0 Quality Wins? 4.0
7.7 % of wins as Quality 26.7

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

KT series moneyline @ +141 (moderate)

KT +1.5 maps @ -208 (moderate)

KT map moneyline @ +135 (moderate)

OVER 2.5 maps @ +111 (light)

 

So obviously these two teams are trending in opposite directions which is something to consider. KT had been an absolute dumpster fire. I rarely get as heated as I did last week about their downright awful performance on so many different levels against Hanwha and then they came back and managed to steal a game from Gen.G somehow. This team is an enigma. They should be so much better than they are but they just aren’t.

That said…

Why in the hell is this terrible Nongshim team laying -172 to anybody? Seriously. Did people really get that excited about the win against DRX? Afreeca obviously had an awful series more than Nongshim had a good one, at least to me. I don’t get the hype for this team in the market.

I’m going to be taking KT here. I would have taken Nongshim if this was the other way around too. I don’t like KT as much as the model which makes this a 52/48% series but this is too good a price between two rough teams that have a lot to play for and I like the individual talent a lot more on KT Rolster’s side as well.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 25.993

Time-Implied: 24.601

Underdog Win: 29.836

“Gelati” Total Projection: 25.138 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 56.58% (NS 56.76% / KT 56.41%)

Volatility Rating:  NS 0.32035 / KT 0.36226 (League Avg: 0.3103)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

—-

Team Totals:

NS team total UNDER 13.5 @ -114 (strong)

KT team total OVER 9.5 @ -112 (light)

 

NS League Average KT
Combined Kills / game 27.269 24.70 21.286
Combined Kills / min 0.846 0.76 0.627
Kills per win 17.281 16.87 17.592
Kills per loss 12.244 8.67 6.125
Deaths per win 6.53 7.81 9.27
Deaths per loss 18.59 15.50

 

I do like the Nongshim total under a bit here but with how long the games go between these two teams I’m not sure I want to really dabble in these. KT have been a volatile team.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 33.4 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 33.29 / 33.63

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 45.84% (NS 37.84% / KT 53.85%)

Volatility Rating: NS 0.15124 / KT 0.18135 (League Avg: 0.15504)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

NS KT
Average Game Time 32.07 34.73
Avg Game Time (in wins) 30.12 37.20
Avg Game Time (in losses) 34.239 33.194

 

Would lean to the over but just going to pass here. Price is right.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

** denotes advantage in a position that the opponent is also strong in, must be considered

 

Kind of wild to me that there wasn’t anything here but these two teams are incredibly volatile just in general so it makes sense. These markets are very well priced for this series.

 

My Picks:

 

Map Spread: KT +1.5 maps @ -208 (2.08 units)

Moneyline: KT +141 (0.75 units)

Map Spread: KT -1.5 maps @ +373 (0.25 units)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

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