Wednesday, March 17th Recap

 

LGD Gaming vs OMG (Net: +1.28 units)

The first game of this series was a strange one where OMG actually tried something completely different and went with a scaling look while LGD were a bit more skirmish oriented but still scaled well. OMG picked up a small advantage and more or less ran with it although this was far from a real blowout, it took a little while.

Game two was more what you’d expect from OMG, getting Wuming on a champion he doesn’t need to lane for a long time with. Shove and roam! LGD just won every lane and OMG didn’t really show much proficiency in being able to wait for their win conditions to come online, they just sort of took every fight even ones they probably didn’t have to like second dragon. They’re clearly not comfortable with waiting for anything.

Game three OMG basically coin flipped and blind invaded, picked up two kills on Eric and the game was essentially over.

Kind of what we all expected, not a particularly great series but I thought both teams played decently considering their level.

Victory Five vs TOP Esports (Net: -2.32 units)

I thought Victory Five could keep things competitive and it was looking like that was going to happen for a little bit in game one but TOP were just grinding out lane advantages across the board and eventually the levee broke. TOP kind of tried to throw this back going a little too deep on a few occasions but they were so far ahead it didn’t matter. The 0-9 ppgod Sett certainly didn’t help but he wasn’t the only one to blame for this loss.

Game two was a perfect execution of a 4-1 Quinn counter to Renekton by TOP. At one point in the game Langx more or less tilt engaged once he finally got a chance to group with his team and it looked like a miscommunication or no communication because he just engaged by himself. HE was frustrated.

TOP are just toying with their food at this point. Victory Five haven’t been a good team this season but I think a lot of the TOP doubters from a few weeks ago are shaking in their boots a little. They’re coming after this #1 seed. They’re busting out all the stops in these games when they don’t even need to.

LPL Net Total: -1.04 units

 

Daily Net Total: -1.04 units

 

Current Week (March 15th-21st): -3.64 units (-8.79% ROI)

 

 


LOL Pro League (China)

Week 9 – Day 4

 

(see notes below)

 

ThunderTalk (TT) Gaming -182 (-1.5 maps @ +165)

vs

Rogue Warriors +150 (+1.5 maps @ -213, -1.5 @ +381)

 

 

Map ML Price: TT -161 / RW +126

Total Maps Played: 2.5 map (over +104 / under -132)

Kill Total: 27.5 (over -110 / under -119)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ +100 / +6.5 @ -130

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +157 / under -208)

 

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

 

This is currently off the board. I’ll be updating this post later tonight.

No vig the model makes this a 52.88% vs 47.11% for TT. A book line should look something like -127 / +100 or so.

 

UPDATE (11:00pm EST): So this was up for about 30 minutes at -625 / +400 and got bet down to -300ish and taken down yet again.

I’m going to take this opportunity to talk through a couple situations that could have happened here and maybe use it as a lesson for those of you that don’t know how this works on the backend.

Sports books use line originators/providers and frequently its the same couple of providers. The books pay that provider for service of upkeeping their lines/markets, some books add more vig, less, or cut certain markets, etc.

My guess about what’s going on here is that some high limit market maker took some huge positions on TT at the opening line which was roughly -180 depending on where you looked. What usually happens in this situation in any sport is an alert is raised, analysts/oddsmakers observe whats going on in terms of traffic and volume, and then if they suspect that either something fishy is happening or they’re just taking too much liability on one position they will frequently close betting temporarily, investigate what’s going on, and then reopen it at a different line or just never reopen it.

There are a few things to consider when this happens:

Sports books typically want to put a number that creates even action on both sides of a market so that they can collect the vig/rake from both sides. If a number is bad and they get hammered on one side they move the number to encourage action. It’s like a live balancing of your books/liability. The absurd adjustment from -180 to -625 that was saw was likely books wanting to overcompensate to encourage some action on Rogue Warriors to cover whatever ridiculous liability they had on TT.

Now… the elephant in the room here is why in the hell would anybody take such a massive position on two bottom dwelling teams that are out of the playoff race. In combination with all the scandal in the LDL/LPL this season you can see why this looks sketchy. Either there is a fix in on this match or it’s just a mistake by the books or they’re just balancing their books because of an obscenely large position which is odd to me given the limits we traditionally see in esports markets. It could also be a combination of all three. Keep in mind though that the esports market in general isn’t that efficient. This isn’t the NFL or Premier League. There’s a reason they charge higher vig and have lower limits, it’s because the book is less confident in their position to make accurate markets and why we’re up a couple percent ROI even against 6+% vig in most cases.

I took a normal, one unit stake on Rogue Warriors moneyline and quarter unit on the -1.5 maps when it was +401 but for the purposes of my records I will NOT be tracking this match with al the bizarre stuff going on and the fact that markets have been closed so often. I try to write in a timely fashion that allows my readers to actually get down on the same stuff I do. It’s also why I use the books I use for record keeping and writing here. I don’t want to write about numbers that are long gone and have people tailing me at significantly worse positions. I can’t stand that and wouldn’t want to do that to you all.

I’ll put the projections that are not odds-factored where I can here but unfortunately with all this movement we’re kind of in a weird spot.

UPDATE 2 (11:23pm EST): Based on the derivative markets I’m seeing it looks like this might open back up again at the -180 number. For the purposes of this article I’ll just create the sensible derivatives for this price so you have something to look back on but again, I will not be tracking my wagers for this on my spreadsheet. Similarly priced match based on totals I saw before this all happened is IG vs EDG on Feb 26th. 

For the firsts and props these are the prices I had written down before it was taken down.

TT RW
Map Odds (American) -154 121 Map Odds (American)
Series Odds (American) -179 138 Series Odds (American)
Book Price Fav 2-0 172 -227 Book Price Und +1.5
OVER 2.5 maps -101 -125 UNDER 2.5 maps
OVER 3.5 maps UNDER 3.5 maps
OVER 4.5 maps UNDER 4.5 maps
First Blood -115 -114 First Blood
First Tower -123 -110 First Tower
First Dragon -122 -111 First Dragon
First Herald -106 -127 First Herald
OVER 11.5 Towers Book Price UNDER 11.5 Towers Book Price
OVER 12.5 Towers Book Price 183 -256 UNDER 12.5 Towers Book Price
Book Price (Over 4.5 drags) -135 100 Book Price (UNDER 4.5 drags)
Book Price (Over 1.5 Barons) 137 -189 Book Price (UNDER 1.5 Barons)
Kill Total #1 Book Price -125 25.5 -103
Kill Total #2 Book Price -118 26.5 -110
Kill Total #3 Book Price -101 27.5 -128
Time Total Book Price -108 32 -122
FAV TTotal OVER Book Price -120 13.5 -108 FAV TTotal UNDER Book Price
Dog Team Total Book Price -125 11.5 -104 Dog Team Total Book Price

Overs to the left, unders to the right

 

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 28.128

Time-Implied: 29.125

Underdog Win: 29.227

“Gelati” Total Projection: 28.43 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 42.53% (TT 48.39% / RW 36.67%)

Volatility Rating: TT 0.34104 / RW 0.39013 (League Avg: 0.305)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 26.5 @ -110 (strong)

UNDER 27.5 @ -128 (light)

—-

Team Totals:

RW team total UNDER 11.5 @ -104 (VERY strong)*

TT team total UNDER 13.5 @ -108 (VERY strong)*

 

Ignore these and take the over there’s huge potential for a clown fiesta here if you’re going to play this at all and the projections like the over more than the markets do.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 30.726 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 32.68 / 32.79

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 37.63% (TT 41.94% / RW 33.33%)

Volatility Rating: TT 0.16513 / RW 0.14972 (League Avg: 0.16251)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 32:00 @ -122 (moderate)

 

Model likes the under primarily because these teams both lose unbelievably quickly at 30.06 and 29.58 minutes respectively. I’d lean under but again I’m not touching this because I think it could be a fiesta.

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

 none, all cancel each other out and the suggestion of under dragons and under 12.5 towers I’m not bothing with.

 

My Picks:

See note above. I backed RW on the moneyline when it was at +401 for normal one unit stake but I won’t be tracking it for my record keeping.

I like RW at anything better than +120 though. Both of these teams are bad just close your nose and take the dog.

 

 


 

Team WE -357 (-1.5 maps @ +103, +1.5 @ -1111)

vs

BiliBili Gaming +255 (+1.5 maps @ -132, -1.5 @ +583)

 

 

Map ML Price: WE -250 / BLG +188

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -116 / under -111)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -109 / +7.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +121 / under -159)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

This is one of the sharper numbers I’ve seen all season on sides which makes sense given how late in the season we are now. A win here would boost Team WE into the 11 match win club along with RNG and would give them a temporary hold on #2 in a tight top of the table race. BiliBili are fighting for their playoff lives and this is a must win game for them. With three matches remaining they trail Invictus, LNG, and Suning by a match win. Invictus has two series left, the other three as well as BLG. They’re probably going to have to win out or at worst go 2-1 to get in so they absolutely need this one although their match against Suning next week is the most important.

WE Tale of the Tape BiliBili
542.5 Gold Diff @ 10 min 153.1
1460.3 Gold Diff @ 15 min 19.6
2314.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min 361.8
32.4 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -0.8
50.6 Gold Diff / min first 20 -27.0
536.1 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 356.9
1894.1 Gold /min 1803.6
89.1 Gold / min vs Avg -1.4
188.2 Gold Diff / min -5.4
2.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.1
1669.4 Kill Agnostic GPM 1626.6
126.8 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 3.9
55.0 Dragon Control % 49.3
56.1 Herald Control % 38.1
63.9 Baron Control % 51.1
9.0 Quality Wins? 7.0
45.0 % of wins as Quality 46.7

 

Team WE are the better team here but there’s a reasonable debate for backing BiliBili with their backs against the wall here. BLG are still a very talented team that just can’t seem to put it all together and we’ve seen a few of those across the globe now peak at the end of the season. Their numbers suggest that they’re roughly a middle of the table team, which is where they are but I actually think they’re probably a little bit better than LNG. Suning and Invictus? I’m not so sure.

I show no value on either side here so I’m passing on a side in this match but if you’re going to take a position I think it just has to be BiliBili. WE have already clinched a playoff spot and while I could see them wanting to battle for higher seeding in an incredibly sharp top 8ish for the bracket, I could also see them coasting and not wanting to show anything else the rest of the way. BiliBili are certainly capable of winning this.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 27.034

Time-Implied: 28.149

Underdog Win: 25.214

“Gelati” Total Projection: 27.693 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 55.12% (WE 58.62% / BLG 51.62%)

Volatility Rating:  WE 0.19538 / BLG 0.28961 (League Avg: 0.305)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

(alt) OVER 26.5 kills @ +102 (moderate-light)

(alt) OVER 24.5 kills @ -152 (light)

OVER 25.5 kills @ -116 (light)

Team Totals:

BLG team total OVER 9.5 @ -105 (VERY strong)

WE team total OVER 16.5 kills @ -119 (miniscule)

 

Kills per win 19.138 17.460
Kills per loss 7.753 8.781

(left is WE, right is BLG)

The alt over 26.5 looks decent and matches more what the projections are putting forth here than the frequency based model measures. It makes a lot of sense too given that BLG tend to get up and throw leads or fail to close games cleanly, often needing an extra fight or two at some point. WE also tend to score very highly in wins. Half stake on the alt over 26.5.

 

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 31.477 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 31.2 / 31.23

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 39.71% (WE 31.03% / BLG 48.39%)

Volatility Rating: WE 0.11766 / BLG 0.15839 (League Avg: 0.16251)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

Given the pricing here this is just about right. I’ll pass. If you’re more bullish than I am on Team WE then the under is worth considering here as they have a 28 minute average game time in wins. I’m just not laying the juice for it.

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

BLG first tower @ +120 (moderate)

UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -109 (very light)

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -250 (miniscule)

 

This might be the most well-priced series I’ve seen this entire season. There’s almost alwayts a few derivatives to attack but even most of these are excellently priced.

I’ll take the one available here. BLG first tower. Both of these teams are solid first tower teams but WE have been a bit of a chameleon team from a macro perspective. They’re able to do a number of different strategies. I could see them conceding herald/tower here for scaling.

 

My Picks:

 

Prop: Map 1 BLG first tower @ +120 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 BLG first tower @ +123 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 3 BLG first tower @ +119 (0.5 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 26.5 @ +102 (0.5 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 26.5 @ -104 (0.52 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 OVER 26.5 @ -105 (0.525 units)

 

 


LOL Champions Korea (LCK)

Week 9 – Day 1

 

Gen.G +180 (+1.5 maps @ -164, -1.5 @ +487)

vs

DAMWON Kia Gaming -233 (-1.5 maps @ +127, +1.5 @ -833)

 

 

Map ML Price: GEG +164 / DWG -213

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +113 / under -145)

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -112 / under -115)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -106 / -4.5 @ -122

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -112 / under -116)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Gen.G +1.5 maps @ -164 (moderate)

Gen.G map moneyline @ +164 (moderate)

Gen.G series moneyline @ +180 (moderate-light)

OVER 2.5 maps @ +113 (very light)

 

What makes this intriguing is “the spot.” DAMWON have already clinched first place and Gen.G are still fending off Hanwha, T1, and DRX for the #2 seed. DAMWON could either intentionally try to show some weird picks and “feel out” how Gen.G respond or they could play very generic and not reveal anything. Knowing this coaching staff and players, I’d expect them to be a full go for this contest but we’ll be able to tell pretty quickly how they’re approaching this.

A lot of people are wondering exactly why this isn’t a bigger number. It was -203 / +165 in the first round robin. When this opened earlier this week it was -270 / +195 range. Even considering time decay, a little money has come in on Gen.G to bring this down to a more reasonable number. I don’t think Gen.G are a bad play here. DAMWON have locked up first place, this was a competitive match the last time these two played, and I think Gen.G are one of the only teams with enough overall talent and ability to consistently challenge this DAMWON team (until T1 get’s it together…).

I think there’s A LOT of overreaction to losses just in general but particularly in the LCK this season. I’ve discussed it a lot this season but the one thing about the LCK is that even the bottom teams have significantly better macro than most of the bottom tier LPL teams so they’re more than capable of upsetting on a given day (has to do with most of the favorites not having particularly great macro as well but I digress…). The losses to Brion and Sandbox and T1 have had people hounding these teams, Gen.G in particular. First of all, T1 played the good lineup. With that lineup T1 are a legitimate top three team to me and better than HLE. Sandbox are clearly better than their record as we’ve discussed ad nauseum here, and the Brion losses we’ve now seen were just lightning in a bottle.

Make no mistake, both of these teams are very VERY good. I actually still grade DAMWON as the best team on the planet this season via my models and even though they aren’t doing it in quite the same, flashy manner that they were last year, their numbers really aren’t all that much different when you look into it.

DWG Tale of the Tape GEG
655.3 Gold Diff @ 10 min -40.0
1272.4 Gold Diff @ 15 min -199.7
1018.9 Gold Diff @ 20 min -862.5
1800.0 GPM first 20 min 1920.0
73.8 Gold Diff / min first 20 56.1
185.2 Gold Diff / min ROG 392.5
1901.9 Gold /min 1873.9
35.0 Gold / min vs Avg 36.0
185.2 Gold Diff / min 157.2
2.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 2.2
1838.2 Kill Agnostic GPM 1783.2
409.5 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 198.6
66.3 Dragon Control % 52.6
63.2 Herald Control % 68.7
79.2 Baron Control % 71.1
9.0 Quality Wins? 14.0
33.3 % of wins as Quality 60.9

The one that sticks out like a sore thumb is quality wins. DAMWON have been playing from the back foot a lot more often this season which makes a lot of sense given their new head coach’s style over time. But what they lack in absolutely ridiculous, wins like what we saw last season, they more than make up for in kill agnostic economy where not a single team on the planet is remotely close to them. There are only 11 teams in the four majors with a better overall economy than just DAMWON’s kill agnostic economy (Gen.G, HLE (barely), FPX, TOP, WE, RNG, RareAtom, JDG (barely), G2, Rogue, Liquid, and C9).  DAMWON generate more gold per minute without kills than TSM, MAD Lions, and others full fledged economy. That’s insane….This team grinds people to a pulp like an anaconda. That +409.5 kill agnostic gold differential per minute is silly…

I could gush about DAMWON all day but Gen.G are absolutely no slouches themselves and have one of the better kill agnostic economies in the world as well. They also play in a way that I think you have to in order to beat this DAMWON team. We’ve seen a few teams try scaling vs scaling and fail but I think if you can snowball a lead on this team that’s how you’re going to do it.

You could make an argument that this is “cheap” for DAMWON with the line consolidating but I think Gen.G still show some value at this current number it’s just a matter of whether or not you feel bad losing the closing line value on it. You’re almost never going to get this kind of price on a team as good as Gen.G though. I’ll be taking a position although, full disclosure, I got this at the much better +195 earlier this week. For record keeping and for purposes of my readers I would still back them in this position even without having previously backed them.

 

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 25.822

Time-Implied: 26.341

Underdog Win: 27.497

“Gelati” Total Projection: 26.008 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 45.2% (DWG 54.286% / GEG 36.11%)

Volatility Rating: DWG 0.30310 / GEG 0.28753 (League Avg: 0.3083)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 24.5 @ -115 (light)

(alt) UNDER 25.5 @ -137 (light)

(alt) UNDER 23.5 @ +104 (miniscule)

 

The under certainly feels like the play here but it depends a lot on which version of each of these teams shows up. I’ll be passing the total but as discussed above if you think DAMWON are a little looser now that they’ve clinched first then the over suddenly looks tempting.

—-

Team Totals:

Gen.G OVER 9.5 kills @ -111 (strong)

DWG OVER 14.5 kills @ -112 (moderate)

 

Gen.G team total does look intriguing here because I could see them hitting this in game losses but I’ll be taking the series price instead.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 33.138  minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 33.65 / 33.86

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 47.98% (DWG 54.286% / GEG 41.67%)

Volatility Rating: DWG 0.19452 / GEG 0.15426 (League Avg: 0.15609)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

DWG GEG
Average Game Time 33.91 32.37
Avg Game Time (in wins) 32.39 32.15
Avg Game Time (in losses) 39.058 32.747

 

These two are frequently winning in less time than this but not by much so I’m just going to pass.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

* denotes category opponent excels in as well

GEG first blood @ -125 (strong)

GEG first tower @ -108 (strong)*

GEG first dragon @ -102 (moderate)*

DWG first herald @ -114 (moderate)*

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -133 (moderate-light)

UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -114 (very light)

 

So again, this particular model factors in frequency primarily for these so you’ve got to use your eyes a bit. I rarely bet first blood props but Gen.G just have a knack for it so I’ll be taking a half stake there. The other firsts line up with strengths of DAMWON so I’ll be avoiding those. This match was a bit of a slobberknocker last time so I’m dodging the tower props too.

 

 

My Picks:

 

Map Spread: Gen.G +1.5 maps @ -164 (1.64 units)

Moneyline: Gen.G +180 (0.5 units)

Map Spread: Gen.G -1.5 maps @ +487 (0.25 units)

Prop: Map 1 Gen.G first blood @ -125 (0.625 units)

Prop: Map 2 Gen.G first blood @ -125 (0.625 units)

Prop: Map 3 Gen.G first blood @ -125 (0.625 units)

 


Hanwha Life Esports -435 (-1.5 maps @ -118, +1.5 @ -1429)

vs

KT Rolster +307 (+1.5 maps @ -108, -1.5 @ +724)

 

 

Map ML Price: HLE -294 / KT +216

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +137 / under -175)

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -112 / under -115)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -115 / +7.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -130 / under +100)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

HLE series moneyline @ -435 (moderate-light)

HLE -1.5 maps @ -118 (light)

HLE map moneyline (light)

 

In short, Hanwha are battling for the #2 seed here which is critically important as it allows whoever gets it to avoid DAMWON until finals. KT are fighting off the entire bottom half of the table who are ALL in contention to land the #6 seed still (which is kind of hilarious).

Hanwha have been the better team but the way they play the game is very high variance. If I had to take a position here it’d be on them but I’ll be passing on a side in this series and playing other derivatives instead.

HLE Tale of the Tape KT
87.6 Gold Diff @ 10 min -505.3
-120.6 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1394.8
-61.4 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1844.5
1770.0 GPM first 20 min 1835.0
18.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 -68.1
219.9 Gold Diff / min ROG -133.3
1849.9 Gold /min 1767.5
34.0 Gold / min vs Avg 34.0
85.5 Gold Diff / min -78.1
1.2 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -1.1
1534.8 Kill Agnostic GPM 1547.7
-182.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -172.7
57.9 Dragon Control % 38.0
44.8 Herald Control % 41.8
55.1 Baron Control % 41.1
8.0 Quality Wins? 4.0
40.0 % of wins as Quality 28.6

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 26.376

Time-Implied: 26.28

Underdog Win: 26.545

“Gelati” Total Projection: 26.438 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 51.47% (HLE 58.82% / KT 44.12%)

Volatility Rating:  HLE 0.27666 / KT 0.33113 (League Avg: 0.3083)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

(alt) OVER 24.5 kills @ -128 (moderate)

—-

Team Totals:

KT team total OVER 8.5 kills @ -114 (moderate-strong)

 

I love overs in Hanwha games but this is the real test. KT are a very low combined kills per minute team regardless of the opponent. The first time these two played it was two bloody games (32, 37) followed by 24 in game three. I’m going to take the over here because Hanwha more or less force the issue with everyone they play. They die a lot just forcing said issue so even more hesitant teams have scored well against them.

 

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 33.669 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 33.48 / 33.4

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 58.82% (HLE 52.94% / KT 64.71%)

Volatility Rating: HLE 0.09955 / KT 0.18624 (League Avg: 0.15609)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 32:00 @ -130 (light)

 

Hanwha have been remarkably consistent in game time totals with a very VERY low volatility score which has meant, for the most part, that I don’t mess with them often. KT have been on the longer side of things, especially because of how slowly they prefer to play. I would lean to the over but this price feels right to me so I’m going to pass.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 1.5 barons @ +146 (strong)

OVER 4.5 dragons @ -118 (light)

 

This has a lot to do with the game time. 41.18% of Hanwha’s games go beyond the first baron. 58.2% of KT’s do as well. Nice plus number makes some sense and if this ends up being a really chippy series with KT battling for their playoff lives I could see these games being competitive and taking multiple barons. I’ll take a half stake.

 

My Picks:

 

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 24.5 @ -128 (1.28 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 25.5 @ -116 (1.16 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 OVER 25.5 @ -122 (1.22 units)

Prop: Map 1 OVER 1.5 barons @ +146 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 OVER 1.5 barons @ +146 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map3 OVER 1.5 barons @ +160 (0.5 units)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

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