Wednesday, March 10th Recap

 

RareAtom vs Victory Five (Net: -1.98 units)

Game one of this series was rather clinical for RA and game two was looking much the same before things got a little weird in the mid game. A few unnecessary skirmishes where RA were maybe feeling a little overconfident went the way of V5 and they were able to make that game somewhat interesting before it turned again.

We didn’t see V5 return to what works for them so it appears that they’re just trying to move on from that style, at least for the time being. RareAtom had a few minor slip ups but mostly looked good. No upgrades or downgrades for RareAtom, downgrade for V5.

EDIT: Switch these I got crossed up in my notes.

Suning vs Rogue Warriors (Net: -1.8 units)

Suning pitched a shutout in game one before trying a bit of a different look with the Karthus in game two paired with the mid lane Nocturne, a look we’ve seen from a few teams recently. This one got a little wild and crazy with RW getting off to a good 5-2 start before a series of poorly executed team fights and miscommunications ended up allowing Suning to eventually take the win. Rogue Warriors probably should have won game two if I’m being honest which is a little embarrassing for Suning but they were also trying a composition that was very off-brand for what we’re used to from this team. Still, win is a win and it looks like Suning is going to be one of our playoff teams and in mostly good form going into it.

 

 

LPL Net Total: -3.78 units

 

Daily Net Total: -3.78 units

 

Current Week (March 8th-14th): -1.74 units (ROI: -2.04%)

 


LOL Pro League (China)

Week 8 – Day 4

 

The LPL skips Patch 11.4 which LEC, LCS, and now LCK are playing on, starts on Patch 11.5 tomorrow. Between this patch and the previous 11.4 I’d expect to see some different things moving forward although I’m not entirely sure how much of an impact it will make right away. The interesting thing about this is that the LPL has had a chance to see what the rest of the world has been up to on this patch so they might be quicker to adapt than we normally see the slow-moving LPL metagame given the circumstances.

I got out of the patch speculation business a long time ago (although you can read my old blog where I used to try). Assuming rational coaching and that these teams see similar things is honestly a pointless endeavor but I do like to look at the “big picture” and obvious things.

  • (BIG) Udyr clear speed and base stat nerfs. I could be wrong but this effectively kills him as a competitive pick. Base stats and clear speed were a MASSIVE part of what made Udyr relevant. He might still see some play if AP junglers keep running rampant but I legitimately think Dr. Mundo just does “his thing” but better now. This is maybe the biggest change on this patch.
  • (BIG) Rell base nerfs and cooldown added to crashdown at early ranks. Basically trying to make her easier to punish, particularly early. Think between that and the counterpicks people have developed she’ll drop from near 100% pick/ban to a more reasonable frequency.
  • (maybe BIG) Seraphine ult cooldown nerf and redistribution of her notes passive to be more self-centric than team centric. Might not matter we’ll see.
  • Azir slight nerfs to early lane isn’t enough to move the needle, he’s still going to be top tier.
  • Gragas barrel mana cost inceased to previous level 3 mana cost flat. This affects support and top lane Gragas quite a bit as you might need to see mana items used on him now. Might still be good and see some residual play but weaker earlier.
  • Jax buffs make him an even more potent option as a Camille counter.
  • Karma Q cooldown reduced. Nice quality of life but she’ll remain a niche pick you see from time to time. I do think she’s somewhat underutilized currently in all three roles.
  • Qiyana got some huge buffs and with so many magic damage junglers still being strong I think there’s a chance we might see her.
  • Trundle got a half second taken off of his Q cooldown which is kind of a big deal for him. Might see him against tanks.

TL:DR – Udyr gone is a big deal. Good chance we actually see the metagame go back to more of what we saw at Worlds with Graves, Nidalee, Taliyah, and friends. Teams that have been abusing Udyr going to need to show they can dance straight up again.


Team WE -2000 (-1.5 maps @ -333)

vs

OMG +820 (+1.5 maps @ +242, -1.5 @ +1800)

 

 

Map ML Price: WE -833 / OMG +492

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +276 / under -385)

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: -10.5 @ -120 / +10.5 @ -109

Team Kill Totals: 17.5 / 6.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over +118  / under -154)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

Model makes this roughly 93.6% / 6.4% which would be +/- 1463, tack a little vig on and we’re right about market.

I have absolutely no interest in backing OMG here even with all of the patch considerations. WE still need this match to secure a playoff position and one more win will likely do that for them. OMG aren’t technically eliminated but there’s a pretty huge disparity here.

I’m just passing this one altogether. WE are actually averaging a margin of victory of 10.8 to OMG’s margin of defeat of 12.92 (composite). Even the kill spreads are ugly.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 24.903

Time-Implied: 26.166

Underdog Win: 28.0

“Gelati” Total Projection: 25.509 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 54.33% (WE 62.5% / OMG 46.15%)

Volatility Rating: WE 0.15959 / OMG 0.33860 (League Avg: 0.3004)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

(alt) OVER 23.5 kills @ -128 (moderate-strong)

WE team total UNDER 17.5 @ -116 (moderate)

OMG team total UNDER 6.5 kills @ -102 (moderate-light)

(alt) OVER 25.5 kills @ +101 (miniscule)

 

It’s a really tight number but I am going to take the over in this contest. With WE averaging 18.9 kills per win all I need is for OMG to put up a little more of a fight than their usual 5.4 kills per loss and we get there no problem. Even in an “average” WE win we’d catch the over and over 75% of their games and 53.8% of OMG’s games have gone over this 23.5 alt total.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 30.434 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 29.14 / 29.1

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 49.84% (WE 45.83% / OMG 53.85%)

Volatility Rating: WE 0.11651 / OMG 0.17803 (League Avg: 0.16094)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 30:00 @ +118 (moderate-light)

 

Nice value but too much of a chance WE just steamroll this. Pass.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OMG first dragon @ +101 (strong)*

OVER 1.5 barons @ +198 (moderate-strong)

OMG first herald @ +135 (moderate)

WE first dragon @ -137 (moderate)*

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -385 (moderate)

OVER 4.5 dragons @ +117 (moderate-light)

 

OMG and WE are both dragon centric squads so I like this strong suggestion on OMG first much less given that it’s only a +101 price. Under 12.5 towers in these big favorite situations.

 

My Picks:

 

Kill Total (alt): Map 1 OVER 23.5 @ -128 (1.28 units)

Kill Total (alt): Map 2 OVER 23.5 @ -130 (1.3 units) (map 3 overpriced so pass on that map doubt it even gets there)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -385 (3.85 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -357 (3.57 units)

 

 


EDward Gaming -500 (-1.5 maps @ -123, +1.5 @ -1667)

vs

LNG Esports +336 (+1.5 maps @ -103, -1.5 @ +767)

 

 

Map ML Price: EDG -303 / LNG +224

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +146 / under -189)

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -115 / under -114)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -110 / +8.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +113 / under -147)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

LNG +1.5 maps @ -103 (moderate-strong)

LNG series moneyline @ +336 (moderate)

OVER 2.5 maps @ -189 (moderate)

LNG map moneyline @ +224 (moderate)

 

This climbed a little since the opener which was around the -450 mark. You can still find those if you look around.

You know, in the midst of a winning streak and a dominant season in the win column, EDG’s number have been surprisingly unimpressive. Obviously the way they play leads to this to some extent. EDG are a dragon scaling team and for the most part those are going to perform slightly weaker in a model that factors in early game economy, differentials, and pace amongst other things. That said, I really wanted to dive in on EDG a bit and take a peek under the proverbial hood to see what’s really going on here. This team is clearly very intelligent about the game and they use their experienced roster to their advantage. I love the way they play the game, but there are some things I want to mention.

Typically what you’re looking for in the best versions of the dragon scaling style of teams is minimal to positive early game differentials, dragon control (duh…), rest of game gold differential, and a high kill agnostic gold per minute. If you’re going to be scaling you need to make sure you’re winning the attrition battle and successfully closing games out as well as making good decisions, something that’s more difficult to evaluate quantitatively. The best other examples of this style of team in the LPL are Invictus and RNG

Below is a look at those two squads:

Royal Never GU Tale of the Tape Invictus
97.9 Gold Diff @ 10 min -117.8
1265.3 Gold Diff @ 15 min -496.6
1855.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1466.8
3.6 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 47.9
80.3 Gold Diff / min first 20 35.5
571.1 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 66.0
1908.2 Gold /min 1826.6
103.3 Gold / min vs Avg 21.6
204.3 Gold Diff / min 61.3
2.8 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.9
1682.6 Kill Agnostic GPM 1607.3
121.2 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 35.6
59.0 Dragon Control % 61.0
48.3 Herald Control % 40.7
71.4 Baron Control % 65.6
39.1 % of wins as Quality 66.7

 

As you can see, the statistical profile ends up looking very similar. Obviously with teams this good they’re capable of more strategies than this but you can begin to give yourself a snapshot of what their tendencies are and their preferred style of play.

Now take a look at EDG and see how they measure up as well as LNG who’d I’d say are a diet version of the same concept although they sometimes try to wear too many hats which we’ll talk about in a bit.

EDG Tale of the Tape LNG
641.0 Gold Diff @ 10 min -135.8
227.2 Gold Diff @ 15 min -512.6
392.1 Gold Diff @ 20 min -733.8
27.7 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 8.7
63.1 Gold Diff / min first 20 -12.2
454.2 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 395.0
1865.4 Gold /min 1789.2
60.4 Gold / min vs Avg -15.8
162.4 Gold Diff / min -10.3
2.3 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.1
1669.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1613.1
104.8 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -31.4
60.2 Dragon Control % 49.1
49.0 Herald Control % 42.9
57.6 Baron Control % 35.3
36.8 % of wins as Quality 50.0

(all of these numbers are a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

For the most part, EDG are checking all of the boxes you want to see in this style of team and they’re playing to their identity and strengths well. For all intents and purposes they’re an excellent team but I do think when you start taking a look at the other top teams there’s a reasonable case to be made that EDG and to some extent RNG as well, are maybe not quite as good as their record indicates.

There is a common misconception within the LOL viewing community that scaling is “safer” by default than more execution-based, uptempo strategies. As many of you know, I take issue with this. Scaling has its own challenges just like more uptempo strategies do there are risks and certain demands on execution of a solid defensive game plan. EDG have done pretty well in doing this but they’ve been far from perfect. They’ve also shown some flexibility in what they’re able to play but what all of this is trying to say is that I think EDG might be a bit overrated. Very good, but not as good as their record.

LNG haven’t impressed me as much as some of my colleagues this season but their best perforamnces have been against dragon/scaling teams. It’s week one and it was a long time ago but they swept Invictus, They put up a competitive fight against RNG just last week and probably should have won game one before stepping into the wombo combo heard round the LPL (see above).

This is also a much more important match for LNG than EDG. LNG likely need to win at least two, maybe three more matches to fend off their competition and earn a playoff spot. EDG are more or less locked in already they just need to battle for seeding. Potential motivation edge. There’s also a huge “patch” change tomorrow (essentially two patches at once since LPL never went to 11.4 and we’re skipping to 11.5). That could shake things up quite a bit again, volatility tends to favor dogs in most situations.

I like the underdog when this style of team faces off. LNG have had the most success and their strongest performances against the teams the EDG are similar to and EDG’s losses this season have ALL come at the hands of dragon/scaling teams (OMG, IG, and RNG, FPX is the exception). The model makes this series fair price at -273 / +202 (roughly 70/30, and if you tack on some vig). It already thinks these two are closer than the market just based on the numbers and with all of these other factors under consideration I think LNG actually make a great underdog play here. Never thought I’d see the day but it is what it is…

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 25.137

Time-Implied: 25.641

Underdog Win: 25.844

“Gelati” Total Projection: 25.176 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 54% (EDG 56% / LNG 52%)

Volatility Rating: EDG 0.25664 / LNG 0.31802 (League Avg: 0.3004)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

LNG team total OVER 8.5 kills @ -105 (VERY strong)

EDG team total UNDER 15.5 kills @ -114 (light)

(alt) UNDER 24.5 kills @ -130 (very light)

OVER 23.5 kills @ -115 (miniscule)

(alt) OVER 22.5 kills @ -147 (miniscule)

 

I’m already going to have some exposure to LNG in this series but everytime I see under on the favorite and over on the dog with a big kill spread like this, especially given the grindy games these two play, I LOVE the big kill spread here for LNG.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 31.98 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 32.31 / 32.2

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 48% (EDG 64% / LNG 32%)

Volatility Rating: EDG 0.13744 / LNG 0.15092 (League Avg: 0.16094)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 32:00 @ +113 (very light)

 

Close enough to market, pass.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

LNG first tower @ +126 (VERY strong)*

EDG first tower @ -172 (moderate-strong)*

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -345 (moderate-strong)

LNG first herald @ +105 (moderate)

EDG first blood @ -167 (very light)

OVER 1.5 barons @ +156 (minscule)

.

LNG have been a solid first tower/herald team, very similar to EDG and we’re getting plus money. I like a half stake on it. If I wasn’t backing the dogs here the under 12.5 towers is how I’d play this series if I was on the EDG side. This could get messy though.

 

My Picks:

 

Map Spread: LNG +1.5 maps @ -103 (1.545 units)

Moneyline: LNG +336 (1 unit)

Map Spread: LNG -1.5 maps @ +767 (0.5 units)

Kill Spread: Map 1 LNG +8.5 kills @ -119 (0.595 units)

Kill Spread: Map 2 LNG +8.5 kills @ -120 (0.6 units)

Kill Spread: Map 3 LNG +8.5 kills @ -120 (0.6 units)

Prop: Map 1 LNG first herald @ +105 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 LNG first herald @ +105 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 3 LNG first herald @ +105 (0.5 units)

 

 


LOL Champions Korea (LCK)

Week 8 – Day 1

 

 

Fredit Brion +704 (+1.5 maps @ +205, -1.5 @ +1500)

vs

DAMWON Kia Gaming -1429 (-1.5 maps @ -270)

 

 

Map ML Price: BRO +428 / DWG -667

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +240 / under -323)

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -114 / -8.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 16.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -169  / under +130)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

DWG -1.5 maps @ -270 (light)

DWG series moneyline @ -1429 (light)

UNDER 2.5 maps @ -323 (very light)

DWG map moneyline @ -667 (miniscule)

 

So first of all it’s hilarious that the model STILL shows value on DAMWON at these numbers and I happen to agree. That’s more or less what this series boils down to. I know a lot of people are going to say “well it happened once…” yea it did and if anything that’s going to be extra motivation for DAMWON to utterly embarrass Brion here.

I want DAMWON every which way I can get them in this series.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 24.378

Time-Implied: 26.215

Underdog Win: 25.821

“Gelati” Total Projection: 25.252 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 50.69% (DWG 55.56% / BRO 45.83%)

Volatility Rating: DWG 0.32446 / BRO 0.31269 (League Avg: 0.3170)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Brion team total OVER 7.5 kills @ -123 (moderate)

(alt) OVER 25.5 kills @ +106 (miniscule)

 

I legitimately think DAMWON are going to smash this team so bad that I’m not even touching an over 7.5 kills and there’s a chance they could get to total by themselves which would make me lean to the over but I’m just going to pass.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 33.888 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 33.43 / 33.17

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 62.73% (DWG 62.96% / BRO 62.5%)

Volatility Rating: DWG 0.20095 / BRO 0.16968 (League Avg: 0.15110)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

I was hoping we’d get a juicy 32 instead of a 31 but I’m going against the model and I’m going to take the under at plus money here. other than the first series between these two, DAMWON have gone under 29 against Nongshim and DRX as well as some sporadic smashing of good teams. Revenge narrative all the way to the bank.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 1.5 barons @ +148 (strong)

BRO first dragon @ +101 (moderate)

OVER 4.5 dragons @ +110 (moderate)

OVER 11.5 towers @ +101 (moderate)

OVER 12.5 towers @ +162 (very light)

 

Under towers against the model. Pass otherwise.

 

My Picks:

 

Map Spread: DAMWON -1.5 maps @ -270 (2.7 units)

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 31:00 @ +130 (1 unit)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 31:00 @ +123 (1 unit)

Time Total: Map 3 UNDER 32:00 @ +113 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -227 (2.27 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -222 (2.22 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -212 (2.12 units)

 

 


 

Afreeca Freecs +178 (+1.5 maps @ -189, -1.5 @ +425)

vs

Hanwha Life Esports -233 (-1.5 maps @ +145, +1.5 @ -667)

 

 

Map ML Price: AF +135 / HLE -172

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +106 / under -135)

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -114 / under -114)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -120 / -5.5 @ -109

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -105  / under -123)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Afreeca series moneyline @ +178 (moderate-strong)

Afreeca +1.5 maps @ -189 (moderate)

Afreeca map moneyline @ +135 (light)

OVER 2.5 maps @ +106 (very light)

 

This Afreeca team has cost us a lot this season but they do seem to finally be getting their feet under them and look like arguably the “best of the rest” or “gatekeepers” yet again. They put up a really strong fight against Gen.G in week six something I can’t say about Hanwha, and also pushed DAMWON pretty hard even with some niche picks in game one of their series last week.

Hanwha look like they might be the third best team but I continue to question their game-to-game consistency when they rely so much on kills to get things done. We saw against Gen.G that if teams are either prepared and face them head on or just opt out of fights against them that they suddenly look like a very mediocre team. They have also been dreadful from behind in games.

This is a fascinating matchup but I think Afreeca are the side for a few reasons.

First, Hanwha’s reliance on building their lead early might not be very easy against an Afreeca team that’s had a solid early game this season and has done so against much better competition. Their struggles to close games out have been steadily improving as the season goes on as well not that Hanwha have been very good playing from a deficit like a team such as DRX.

Second, I mentioned already that HLE’s reliance on kills has been a detriment to them despite their ability to consistently force the issue. As teams have slowly but surely learned how to play against them they’ve become much less potent. Afreeca actually has a better kill agnostic gold per minute and a substantially better kill agnostic gold differential per minute than Hanwha.

Third, is a bit more opinionated, but I think that playing through a herald snowball is a much better way to play the game than dragon stacking once you meet a certain threshold of execution. I prefer the way Afreeca plays the game.

Fourth, the price is just too rich for Hanwha. I think this should probably be closer to a -170 / +130 range price. My model has this even closer than that.

Chovy+jungler (Arthur or Yohan) could just take over this series but you could say that about any series. Afreeca have the edge in the outer lanes and they’re good at playing through that. I also think a veteran squad like Afreeca are going to have learned from the first meeting, a match they probably could have won. This match is also much more important for Afreeca who more or less MUST WIN this match while Hanwha have more or less locked up playoffs already needing only one, maybe two more match wins the rest of the season.  Give me the underdogs.

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 27.202

Time-Implied: 26.555

Underdog Win: 26.342

“Gelati” Total Projection: 26.888 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 55.675% (HLE 65.52% / AF 45.83%)

Volatility Rating: HLE 0.29196  / BRO 0.31716 (League Avg: 0.3170)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

AF team total OVER 9.5 kills @ -114 (strong)

(alt) OVER 23.5 kills @ -141 (light)

OVER 24.5 kills @ -114 (light)

HLE team total OVER 14.5 kills @ -114 (very light)

 

I’m going to take the Afreeca side AND kill totals because I think Hanwha games tend to be pretty bloody and we might get a bit of a slugfest here even if Afreeca end up losing.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 32.771 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 32.78 / 32.77

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 46.05% (HLE 37.93% / AF 54.17%)

Volatility Rating: HLE 0.10023 / AF 0.16096 (League Avg: 0.15110)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

Right on market. If anything I’d lean under because of the aforementioned early game prowess and improved closing technique. As is, pass.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

AF first blood @ -106 (VERY strong)

AF first herald @ -125 (VERY strong)*

AF first tower @ +111 (strong)

OVER 1.5 barons @ +154 (strong)

HLE first herald @ -103 (moderate)

 

I typically don’t like first blood but I do like Afreeca first herald here quite a bit even with HLE also being decent.

 

My Picks:

 

Map Spread: Afreeca +1.5 maps @ -189 (1.89 units)

Moneyline: Afreeca +178 (0.5 units)

Map Spread: Afreeca -1.5 maps @ +425 (0.25 units)

Kill Total (team): Map 1 Afreeca OVER 9.5 kills @ -109 (1.09 units)

Kill Total (team): Map 2 Afreeca OVER 9.5 kills @ -112 (1.12 units)

Kill Total (team): Map 3 Afreeca OVER 9.5 kills @ -122 (1.22 units)

Prop: Map 1 Afreeca first herald @ -132 (1.32 units)

Prop: Map 2 Afreeca first herald @ -116 (1.16 units)

Prop: Map 3 Afreeca first herald @ -132 (1.32 units)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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