Wednesday, June 23rd Recap

 

Victory Five vs JD Gaming (Net: +2.825 units)

FunPlus Phoenix vs Team WE (Net: -1.5 units)

 

Hanwha Life Esports vs Afreeca Freecs (Net: +1.2 units)

DAMWON Kia Gaming vs Fredit Brion (no action)

It’s beginning to be hilarious how much this Brion team just owns DAMWON (if you want to consider this lineup really DAMWON)

 

 

LPL Net Total: +1.325 units

LCK Net Total: +1.2 units

 

Daily Net Total: +2.525 units

I’ve got more traveling to do this upcoming weekend so there won’t be any longer recaps this week as I’m spending the time getting days ahead since I will be out of pocket for a few days. Apologies for the inconvenience but I’ll be watching all of these when I get the time to on Sunday/Monday so any questions you might have hit me up then.


 

LPL Summer 2021

Week Three – Day Four

 

 

Rogue Warriors +1073 (+1.5 maps @ +277, -1.5 @ +2600)

vs

Royal Never Give Up -3333 (-1.5 maps @ -385)

 

Map Moneyline: RW +772 / RNG -1667

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -114 / under -114)

Kill Spread: +11.5 @ -122 / -11.5 @ -105

Team Kill Totals: 6.5 / 17.5

Time Total: 28:00 (over -106 / under -122)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  +142 / -182 (map), +180 / -233 (series), -186 / +144 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: Rogue Warriors +1.5 maps

Starters:

RW – 8917, icecoKe, Forge, ZWuji, QiuQiu

RNG – Xiaohu, Wei, Cryin, GALA, Ming

Royal Never GU Tale of the Tape Rogue Warriors
101.3 Gold Diff @ 10 min -1164.9
247.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1779.5
380.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1137.5
11.4 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -164.2
-36.0 Gold Diff / min first 20 -218.9
-259.5 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -382.5
1768.1 Gold /min (GPM) 1574.3
-7.8 Gold / min vs Avg -201.6
-90.4 Gold Diff / min -364.9
-1.2 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -5.2
1616.0 Kill Agnostic GPM 1473.5
23.5 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -206.4
1982.7 GPM in wins 1903.9
385.0 Gold Diff per min in wins 171.9
1714.5 GPM in losses 1533.0
-209.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -432.0
-84.7 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -359.2
38.4 Win-Adjusted GPM -40.3
62.5 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -150.6
39.1 Dragon Control % 21.6
50.0 Herald Control % 22.2
22.2 Baron Control % 20.0
1.0 Quality Wins? 0.0
100.0 % of wins as Quality 0.0

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and Summer season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 37.976%
2 1 29.147%
1 2 18.150%
0 2 14.726%
(Series Win): 67.123%

So obviously RNG haven’t gotten off to the best of starts and it shows in their metrics which why the model likes RW so much in this spot. Realistically it would have liked a light RW play anyway but this is where art meets science….

The Rogue Warriors team might be the worst professional team in the four majors right now, at least relative to their league. Just for comparison, Golden Guardians have 100 more kill agnostic gold per minute than Rogue Warriors do. Let that sink in… Golden Guardians also have 1614 gold per minute in losses to Rogue Warriors 1533 (and it wasn’t much better during Spring either). This team is BAD…

I’m actually going to just lay the chalk here. This Rogue Warriors team straight up sucks and I rarely say that about anybody. The only real redeeming characteristic going for them is that it looks like they’ve finally settled on QiuQiu who has been the best support and arguably the best player on this entire team in 2021 even though he hasn’t even been the full-time starter which says all sorts of things about this organization.

This is also a full “get right” spot for RNG with RW being just what the doctor ordered to get them out of this funky hangover they’ve opened with.

 

My Picks:

Map Spread: RNG -1.5 maps @ -385 (3.85 units)

 

 


 

 

Suning Gaming +206 (+1.5 maps @ -169, -1.5 @ +520)

vs

EDward Gaming -278 (-1.5 maps @ +131, +1.5 @ -909)

 

Map Moneyline: SN +157 / EDG -204

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -105 / under -123)

Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -112 / -6.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -122 / under -105)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  +138 / -177 (map), +170 / -225 (series), -194 / +149 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: Suning series moneyline (light)

Starters:

SN – Bin, SofM, Angel, Huanfeng, ON

EDG – Flandre, Jiejie, Scout, Viper, Meiko

EDG Tale of the Tape Suning
674.0 Gold Diff @ 10 min 480.6
1152.8 Gold Diff @ 15 min 1212.5
875.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min 1075.0
11.4 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 23.9
120.6 Gold Diff / min first 20 73.5
519.1 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 492.0
1865.3 Gold /min (GPM) 1860.8
89.4 Gold / min vs Avg 84.9
254.0 Gold Diff / min 86.7
3.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.2
1637.4 Kill Agnostic GPM 1667.3
131.7 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 53.1
1896.7 GPM in wins 1969.0
311.1 Gold Diff per min in wins 310.2
1614.1 GPM in losses 1698.5
-202.5 Gold Diff per min in losses -248.5
259.7 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 92.4
-47.6 Win-Adjusted GPM 24.7
-11.4 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -12.3
71.8 Dragon Control % 46.7
61.1 Herald Control % 45.0
64.3 Baron Control % 40.0
5.0 Quality Wins? 4.0
62.5 % of wins as Quality 66.7

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 37.125%
2 1 29.009%
1 2 18.602%
0 2 15.265%
(Series Win): 66.134%

EDG  have looked like the best team in the LPL through the first couple of weeks but this is a uniquely challenging matchup for them. Suning’s biggest weakness as a team is that of the top half of the table, they’re one of the teams, along with EDG, that are vulnerable to an early game snowball. It’s not that neither of these teams are capable of doing just that, but neither do it with much consistency when compared to the other elite teams in the LPL. EDG, RNG, and Suning get more wins via macro and “running people around the map” than any others in the LPL. This makes them very similar in their statistical profiles, approach to drafts, and overall “slow and steady” execution.

The model makes this fairly close to market with a slight value on Suning. I’ll be firing on Suning for a few reasons:

1) Numbers paint a picture of two fairly evenly matched teams based on their performance so far in Summer. Public just doesn’t like Suning because they have a couple of losses to IG and WE.

2) Stylistically, these two won’t have as much success “doing their thing” against each other because they’re both good at the same things. Against weaker teams, and even some stronger ones, these two can frequently just wait for the enemy to make a mistake. That results in close games when you’ve got two teams staring at each other in a standoff.

3) (partial) “Let down spot” gets thrown around a lot and it’s not like EDG are coming off of an emotional win against another big favorite or anything but they’ve now won eight in a row after opening the season with a game loss to BiliBili. Might see something interesting in the draft or foot taken off the pedal potentially.

Suning are far from an immaculate team but they’re also one that I thought would be negatively effected by the newer patches and that simply hasn’t been the case. Suning have steadily improved over the course of the 2021 season and continue to do so. EDG look better than the Spring iteration, to me at least, but I still think this is a closer series than the market implies so I’ll be on the dogs… or lions… whatever.

 

My Picks:

Map Spread: Suning +1.5 maps @ -169 (3.38 units)

Moneyline: Suning +206 (1 unit)

Map Spread: Suning -1.5 maps @ +520 (0.5 units)

 


 

LCK Summer

Week Three – Day Two

 

 

Liiv Sandbox +340 (+1.5 maps @ +103, -1.5 @ +910)

vs

Gen.G -476 (-1.5 maps @ -132, +1.5 @ -2500)

 

Map Moneyline: LSB +256 / Gen.G -357

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -122 / under -105)

Kill Spread: +7.5 kills @ -111 / -7.5 kills @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -132 / under +101)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  +175 / -227 (map), +249 / -325 (series), -142 / +111 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: Sandbox +1.5 maps (strongest edge)

GEG Tale of the Tape LSB
217.2 Gold Diff @ 10 min -45.0
1094.6 Gold Diff @ 15 min 333.4
741.8 Gold Diff @ 20 min 440.4
25.0 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 32.5
55.5 Gold Diff / min first 20 23.0
528.1 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 26.9
1851.0 Gold /min (GPM) 1763.7
92.1 Gold / min vs Avg 4.8
184.6 Gold Diff / min -31.9
2.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.5
1657.5 Kill Agnostic GPM 1613.4
102.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -2.9
1926.4 GPM in wins 1913.9
307.6 Gold Diff per min in wins 217.6
1650.2 GPM in losses 1576.0
-143.7 Gold Diff per min in losses -343.8
187.2 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -29.3
29.5 Win-Adjusted GPM 17.1
26.9 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -63.2
59.6 Dragon Control % 44.7
54.5 Herald Control % 70.6
64.3 Baron Control % 40.0
5.0 Quality Wins? 1.0
62.5 % of wins as Quality 50.0

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 44.306%
2 1 29.629%
1 2 14.884%
0 2 11.180%
(Series Win): 73.936%

Sandbox are hot off of back-to-back sweep victories over T1 and Hanwha Life Esports. Typically in spots like this my first instinct is to fade the team that’s running well because they get a little too much lean from the market but in this case I actually think they haven’t gotten enough. Gen.G have dropped games to Nongshim and KT Rolster in their past two matches. Both are improved teams and I’d argue are around a similar level overall to Sandbox. I backed both of them at similar numbers.

This isn’t really anything more than a disrespectful number to me. Gen.G have looked like arguably the best team in the LCK so far in Summer but the entire league, besides maybe DAMWON, has upgraded and Gen.G are mostly just performing at their usual level. The market hasn’t taken this into account yet, at least not enough in my opinion.

I’ll also be taking a few derivatives here as well. Kill total over makes a lot of sense given that these two teams have each gone over this 22.5 number in 54.5% and 66.67% of their games respectively with a fairly low volatility rating. Half stake on the kill total as I still prefer to wait on these. I’ll also be taking a full bite on the Sandbox first herald at +135. Gen.G are an excellent herald team (63.64% first) this season but Sandbox have been even better (77.78%).

My Picks:

Map Spread: Sandbox +1.5 maps @ +103 (2 units)

Moneyline: Sandbox +340 (0.5 units)

Map Spread: Sandbox -1.5 maps @ +910 (0.25 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 22.5 kills @ -122 (0.66 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 22.5 kills @ -122 (0.66 units)

Prop: Map 1 Sandbox first herald @ +135 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 Sandbox first herald @ +135 (1 unit)

 

 


 

 

Nongshim RedForce +222  (+1.5 maps @ -147, -1.5 @ +606)

vs

T1 -303 (-1.5 maps @ +115, +1.5 @ -1111)

 

Map Moneyline: NS +183 / T1 -238

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -122 / under -105)

Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -122 / -6.5 @ -106

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -120 / under -108)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  +136 / -172 (map), +165 / -218 (series), -199 / +153 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: Nongshim +1.5 maps (alternatively map moneylines)

T1 Tale of the Tape NS
352.5 Gold Diff @ 10 min -480.4
870.1 Gold Diff @ 15 min -592.7
969.3 Gold Diff @ 20 min 88.3
27.5 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -21.0
34.5 Gold Diff / min first 20 -46.6
261.2 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 121.5
1813.2 Gold /min (GPM) 1767.8
54.2 Gold / min vs Avg 8.8
100.4 Gold Diff / min 29.5
1.5 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.5
1627.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1608.4
55.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 9.4
1912.4 GPM in wins 1865.0
356.1 Gold Diff per min in wins 254.4
1689.1 GPM in losses 1631.6
-219.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -285.3
103.0 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 32.1
15.6 Win-Adjusted GPM -31.8
75.4 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -26.3
50.0 Dragon Control % 51.9
35.3 Herald Control % 58.3
58.3 Baron Control % 63.6
3.0 Quality Wins? 2.0
60.0 % of wins as Quality 50.0

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 36.500%
2 1 28.897%
1 2 18.934%
0 2 15.670%
(Series Win): 65.397%

Welcome to another edition of The Student vs The Sensei this time with Gori stepping up to challenge Faker. For those that don’t remember, Gori came up through the SKT/T1 developmental system before shipping off to the LPL earlier this year. He spent all of 2019 and most of 2020 in the SKT academy system and was scouted long before that. At one point Gori was a legitimate super prospect and the only thing he did wrong was happen to sit behind Faker and toward the end of his time with T1, battled Clozer. That’s good company.

Gori has made a noticeable difference for Nongshim and while he may not be putting forth MVP caliber performances on a game-to-game basis, he’s been a substantial upgrade over Bay who struggled last season. There is no longer a gaping hole in the middle of the map.

T1 punted one to an underrated and underappreciated Sandbox roster which might make people a little hesitant to want to back them here but they had been one of the best teams in the league until that point. I don’t think one match means much in the grand scheme of things but the fact that it was to a similarly rated LSB team makes Nongshim look appealing to back here.

The model says value is on Nongshim, that advanced metrics suggest that these two are close in some ways but that T1 is still a significantly better team overall. This is just short of half the number that Sandbox were getting on Sunday (+413). There might still be value by the numbers but I would lean the other way and back T1 here if I wanted a side for the whole series. I’m no stranger to backing big underdogs, especially competent ones but T1 have the edge at all five positions and have more macro problems than T1 does which makes this a tough ask.

I’m going to play the dogs through derivatives and take Nongshim first herald at +125. Nongshim have picked up first herald in 58.33% of their games so far in Summer and the film matches this as they seem to make it a priority to get the ball rolling with it while T1, who have just a 22.22% first herald rate are more concerned with stablizing and scaling. It’s not that they’re incapable of playing a more snowbally style but they’ve preferred otherwise where they can afford to. Even if you factor in some adjustments this is just a nice value prop.

The kill total is also a decent look here with each team going over the alternate total of 21.5 in 77.78% and 66.67% of games respectively with both falling well below the league average volatility rating in combined kills per minute and per game. My kill total projection is 22.7 for this game which is close but the frequencies give a bump for me, especially because I think this could be competitive. Half stake.

 

My Picks:

Prop: Map 1 Nongshim first herald @ +125 (2 units)

Prop: Map 2 Nongshim first herald @ +113 (2 units)

Kill Total (alt): Map 1 OVER 21.5 @ -147 (0.735 units)

Kill Total (alt): Map 2 OVER 21.5 @ -156 (0.78 units)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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