Wednesday, June 10th Recap
Vici Gaming vs Royal Never Give Up (Net: -5.725 units)
The primary takeaway from this series is that RNG look really clean at the moment. Just like the beginning of Spring, this team looks like one of the best in the world. They haven’t even played a close game yet. People will try to argue this was a “no show” by Vici but after rewatching it with a more critical eye, RNG simply had all the answers to everything Vici tried. I do think there were a few things Vici could have done differently in the draft but it wasn’t anything truly egregious. RNG look outstanding at the moment and that’s with New in the top lane.
Suning vs JDG (Net: -4.11 units)
Straight up, Suning should have won this series 2-0. Game one was maybe 95%+ chance of victory before they punted it away. Game two was probably in the 80%+ range and Suning decided, after already making this mistake once and it costing them the close on the nexus, to dogpile onto a Lissandra that has about 6 second of invulnerability (ult and Zhonya’s) with her team right near by… You can’t make this up folks.
Daily Total Net: -9.835 units
As if yesterday’s beating wasn’t enough, the universe once again reminds us that we are entitled to absolutely nothing. That’s three absolutely brutal beats in back-to-back days. I can’t stand complaining about bad beats. Nobody wants to listen to it but I feel it’s important to communicate just how ridiculously unlikely what we just witnessed was. We’ll call the Rogue Warriors debacle in game one yesterday a similar 95%+ win rate although realistically that was maybe a 99%+. The odds of all three happening in two slates is pretty mind boggling.
It’s incredibly frustrating. All you can do is look at your process and evaluation and make corrections accordingly. I would play all of these plays again without hesitation. Once you take a step back, cool off, and evaluate your position and realize that it was right and you just rolled proverbial snake eyes multiple times, it stings a lot less.
I’ll reiterate, this is a long term approach. You need to manage your bankroll in a way that you can absorb bad variance like this. I’ll also take this time to say that you are in no way entitled or “due” for a good run either. That’s not how this works. The most important thing is recognizing when you were truly unlucky, lucky, and simply incorrect. That can be difficult but it’s an integral part of becoming a better handicapper. You need to be able to see through the noise. In this case, it truly was some low percentage outcomes and it’s just important to recognize that as it is to recognize when you catch them in your favor as well.
Onto the next one.
LPL Summer 2020
Week 2 – Day 3
Dominus Esports +320 (+1.5 maps @ +105, -1.5 @ +706)
eStar -455 (-1.5 maps @ -135)
Kill Total: 27.5 (over -114 / under -115)
Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -119 / -7.5 @ -110
Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 16.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -123 / under -105)
DMO – Natural, Xiaopeng, Twila, Helper, Mitsuki
EST – Xiaobai, Wei, Fenfen, Wink, ShiauC
eStar were 7-6 (5-8 ATS) as favorites in Spring
Dominus were 4-10 (6-8 ATS) as underdogs in Spring
eStar won the first meeting 2-0 on March 29th as -1136 favorites
eStar may have lost their first series to LGD but they looked just like themselves besides the weird CJJ substitution in game two after taking the win. For my money, that series could have been a 2-0 but I digress.
This handicap is fairly straightforward. Dominus look absolutely terrible and eStar not only looked comfortable with Fenfen replacing Cryin but it was against a superior opponent in LGD. I still have eStar pegged as a playoff team and barring another bizarre substitution should handle business against Dominus. I like the sweep. eStar should blow Dominus out of the water.
My Composite Combined Kills per Game (cCKPG) has this kill total at 27.8 kills. My odds-weighted projection, which is an odds-weighted blend of kills per win (KPW) and kills per loss (KPL) composite averages has this total at 29.16 kills. Time-total implied kills (avg of both teams CKPM*implied time total) is 28.22 kills. In a projected underdog win, in this case Dominus, 28.62 kills. eStar were particularly bloody last season but their overall gameplan doesn’t appear to be changing with Fenfen in the lineup instead of Cryin. This team is still very aggressive and will be the first to make most plays happen if they can help it. I like the over here. eStar managed 30.4 combined kills per game last season and 21.63 kills per win.
The under game time has now won 20 out of 29 games. The books have adjusted slowly as the league’s average game time is now 32:04 but I still think we’ll see eStar’s uptempo, “force the issue” style completely run over Dominus. If they struggled with Victory Five then the step up in class to eStar are going to present a monumental challenge.
Dominus had an average margin of defeat of 9.05 in Spring. eStar had an average margin of victory of 11.96, second in the league only to Team WE. I like the alternate kill spreads here on maps one and two.
I’ll be diversifying some of my map spread exposure to maps 1 and 2 kill spreads for eStar as a way to get a little bit more value through the alternate spread markets.
Spread: eStar -1.5 maps @ -135 (1.35 units)
Kill Spread: Map 1 eStar -8.5 kills @ +113 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: Map 1 eStar -9.5 kills @ +138 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: Map 1 eStar -10.5 kills @ +171 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: Map 2 eStar -8.5 kills @ +122 (0.25 units)
Kill Spread: Map 2 eStar -9.5 kills @ +150 (0.25 units)
Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 32:00 @ -105 (1.05 units)
Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 32:00 @ -105 (1.05 units)
Kill Total: OVER 27.5 @ -111 (0.555 units)
Kill Total: OVER 27.5 @ -114 (0.57 units)
Team WE +158 (+1.5 maps @ -196, -1.5 @ +386)
Invictus Gaming -204 (-1.5 maps @ +153)
Kill Total: 27.5 (over -135 / under -101)
Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 15.5
Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -118 / -5.5 @ -114
Time Total: 33:00 (over +109 / under -149)
WE – Morgan, Beishang, Teacherma, Jiumeng, Missing
IG – TheShy, Ning, Rookie, Puff, Southwind
Invictus were 13-2 (8-7 ATS) as favorites in Spring regular season
Team WE were 5-5 (6-4 ATS) as underdogs in Spring regular season
Team WE won the first meeting 2-1 as +296 underdogs on April 15th
This matchup is one that is sure to spark some conversation.
To many, Invictus finished the Spring season on a huge let-down, flaming out of the playoffs after a first place regular season finish despite inconsistencies. They were also completely dominated at the Mid-Season Cup. WE on the other hand had a strong finish and an upset win in playoffs. Both are teams that many think are due for regression.
All of the teams that attended the Mid-Season Cup appear to be suffering a bit of a hangover, all of them have looked sloppy even in their victories. Will Invictus suffer the same fate? I don’t think so. This team is embarrassed at the moment. Poor playoffs, routed in the third place match, destroyed at the MSC. Invictus have their issues with motivation and have in the past but if you don’t think they’ll be “up” for this game you’re out of your mind.
It’s the flavor of the month to hate on Invictus right now in the analyst community. They have a lot of issues primarily stemming from the jungle and top lane positions but now that Ning has had some time to work his way back into the team full-time again I think there’s a chance Invictus recapture some of that old energy. This is a buy-low moment for Invictus even if you’re bearish on their overall prospects moving forward. This team is still immensely talented, much more so than Team WE.
There’s also the stylistic matchup considerations. Invictus have had high combined kills measures but have had significantly fewer kills in wins than they used to put up primarily due to a shift towards a more traditional scaling, 2-core setup that focuses on Rookie instead of the tempo-based approach that won them a World Championship in 2018. Team WE force the issue early and often. In a weird way I think this could be a good thing for Invictus. This team is at their best when constantly fighting but they’ve been reluctant to do so and haven’t been drafting accordingly all year long either. Team WE will make them prepare to skirmish and force the issue.
I like Team WE and unlike a lot of my peers believe they’ll maintain a solid level through the Summer. Their run wasn’t a fluke, they play the game the way it should be played right now. I just think this is just what the doctor ordered for Invictus. This line opened at Invictus -345 / +238. Not only do I think this is a potential buy-low even if you’re not optimistic about Invictus, but there’s also tremendous line value here.
My Composite Combined Kills per Game (cCKPG) has this kill total at 28.35 kills. My odds-weighted projection, which is an odds-weighted blend of kills per win (KPW) and kills per loss (KPL) composite averages has this total at 28.2 kills. Time-total implied kills (avg of both teams CKPM*implied time total) is 33.49 kills. In a projected underdog win, in this case Team WE, 28.95 kills. These two teams are the some of the bloodiest the major regions have to offer. It’s over city and unless you think this game ends too quickly one way or the other, which is certainly possible, these two teams will most certainly be battling it out. I don’t think a 27.5 is too much to ask but the last time these two teams met there were only 76 kills in three games (25.33 avg). Game one was a 24 minute Invictus win that only had 21 kills in it. The first two games would have gone under.
I think these games are going to be extremely fast snowballs and I’m leaning more toward the under game time than the over kill total in this case even though the numbers and trends suggest it. I’ll be full stake on the time total and half stake on the kill totals.
If you like Invictus to win this series then the kill spreads are more interesting than the map spread to me. While Invictus had one of the lowest margins of victory (AMOV) last season, they would have covered this 5.5 spread in 18 out of 29 games.
Spread: Invictus -1.5 maps @ +153 (0.5 units)
Kill Spread: Map 1 Invictus -4.5 kills @ -120 (0.6 units)
Kill Spread: Map 2 Invictus -4.5 kills @ -116 (0.58 units)
Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ -145 (1.45 units)
Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ -145 (1.45 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 28.5 @ -111 (0.555 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 28.5 @ -114 (0.57 units)