Wednesday, July 28th Recap

 

JD Gaming vs OMG (Net: +5.73 units)

BiliBili Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (Net: -0.4 units)

 

 

LPL Net Total: +5.33 units

 

Daily Net Total: +5.33 units

 

 


LPL Summer 2021

Week Eight – Day Four

 

 

 

ThunderTalk (TT) Gaming +694 (+1.5 maps @ +199, -1.5 @ +1600)

vs

Royal Never Give Up -1429 (-1.5 maps @ -263)

 

Map Moneyline: TT +424 / RNG -667

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -104 / under -125)

Kill Spread: +9.5 @ -111 / -9.5 @ -118

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 17.5

Time Total: 29:00 (over -110 / under -119)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +318 / -460 (map), +600 / -1115 (series), +148 / -190 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: none, (slight edge on TT +1.5 maps)

Starters:

TT – Xiao7, Xiaopeng, Ye, SamD, Pudding

RNG – Xiaohu, Wei, Yuekai, GALA, Ming

Trends
RNG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) TT as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 6 3 -1178 Matches as Underdogs 1 10 +606
Against Map Spread 5 4 -49 Against Map Spread 3 8 +102
Against Kill Spread 11 10 7.2 Against Kill Spread 11 13 +9
Kill Totals 13 8 25.83 Kill Totals 10 14 25.68
Team Kill Totals 11 10 15.72 Team Kill Totals 11 13 8.59
Game Time Totals 8 13 30.0 Game Time Totals 12 12 29.82
Dragons over 4.5 8 13 Dragons over 4.5 11 13
Towers over 11.5 11 10 Towers over 11.5 12 12

 

 

League Rank Royal Never GU Tale of the Tape TT League Rank
4 449.2 Gold Diff @ 10 min -160.1 11
2 1734.6 Gold Diff @ 15 min -542.3 11
2 2437.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -950.0 16
63.6 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -67.9
2 64.5 Gold Diff / min first 20 -119.6 15
8 361.5 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -202.8 17
3 1874.9 Gold /min (GPM) 1656.3 16
86.7 Gold / min vs Avg -131.9
3 114.6 Gold Diff / min -253.3 16
3 1.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -3.5 16
2 1662.4 Kill Agnostic GPM 1519.5 16
3 88.4 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -149.6 16
3 1988.3 GPM in wins 1862.4 17
3 361.3 Gold Diff per min in wins 216.8 16
2 1689.3 GPM in losses 1594.5 14
6 -289.0 Gold Diff per min in losses -394.3 15
118.7 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -249.2
3 42.4 Win-Adjusted GPM -83.5 17
3 41.8 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -102.7 16
12 47.2 Dragon Control % 42.6 15
4 60.3 Herald Control % 46.0 11
7 55.0 Baron Control % 33.3 16
11.0 Quality Wins? #N/A
61.1 % of wins as Quality #N/A

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 62.597%
2 1 26.143%
1 2 6.900%
0 2 4.361%
(Series Win): 88.739%

Yuekai is getting another go at it after his first try last week filling in for Cryin. To me this is sort of a good thing long term for any organization but in the here and now you’ve got a team that still hasn’t secured their playoff position in a tight middle of the pack. In some ways this is actually pretty risky by RNG. TT are eliminated sure but these are players playing for a new contract or to hold a starting position next season. DO NOT ASSUME. We’re also seeing TT try out new top laner Xiao7.

With two unknowns like this you simply can’t justify an RNG position, at least in my opinion. I also don’t think it’s really worth a play on the underdogs here either although if I was forced to pick a side that’s where I’d go.

One thing I do like is TT first herald. At a 61.54% rate for the season vs RNG’s 58.62% and a +146 number it’s enticing despite some degree of uncertainty about how they’ll play with Xiao7 in the lineup. If anything I’d assume they play toward him a bit and create transition situations but who knows. I just think the number is too big. Dragon isn’t a bad play either given RNG’s sub 45% first dragon rate.

 

My Picks:

Prop: Map 1 TT first herald @ +147 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 TT first herald @ +147 (1 unit)

 


 

LNG Esports +182 (+1.5 maps @ -172, -1.5 @ +452)

vs

TOP Esports -238 (-1.5 maps @ +135, +1.5 @ -714)

 

Map Moneyline: LNG +150 / TOP -192)

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -123 / under -105)

Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -122 / -6.5 @ -106

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -105 / under -123)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +116 / -147 (map), +133 / -170 (series), -243 / +185 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play:  LNG +1.5 maps and series moneyline (moderate-light)

Starters:

LNG – Ale, Tarzan, Icon, Light, Iwandy

TOP – 369, Karsa, Knight, JackeyLove, Zhuo

Trends
TOP as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) LNG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 6 5 -1033 Matches as Underdogs 4 1 +196
Against Map Spread 4 7 +5 Against Map Spread 5 0 -187
Against Kill Spread 11 15 6.0 Against Kill Spread 12 2 +6
Kill Totals 16 10 26.41 Kill Totals 8 6 24.70
Team Kill Totals 11 15 15.68 Team Kill Totals 11 3 9.90
Game Time Totals 13 13 30.5 Game Time Totals 10 4 30.80
Dragons over 4.5 11 15 Dragons over 4.5 7 7
Towers over 11.5 14 12 Towers over 11.5 7 7

 

League Rank TOP Tale of the Tape LNG League Rank
10 -159.4 Gold Diff @ 10 min -60.9 9
8 -41.2 Gold Diff @ 15 min -123.0 9
9 -44.4 Gold Diff @ 20 min 125.0 8
20.9 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -2.5
7 11.4 Gold Diff / min first 20 23.3 11
4 431.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 439.9 2
4 1841.8 Gold /min (GPM) 1804.5 11
53.5 Gold / min vs Avg 16.3
4 92.5 Gold Diff / min 90.2 5
5 1.3 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.2 7
7 1626.0 Kill Agnostic GPM 1602.2 11
5 58.7 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 31.1 9
4 1985.2 GPM in wins 1939.7 10
6 348.5 Gold Diff per min in wins 335.4 9
7 1650.5 GPM in losses 1597.2 13
2 -248.8 Gold Diff per min in losses -285.8 5
96.6 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 94.3
4 39.3 Win-Adjusted GPM -6.2 10
6 29.0 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 16.0 9
5 55.3 Dragon Control % 45.5 14
7 53.6 Herald Control % 49.3 9
2 62.5 Baron Control % 52.2 11
13.0 Quality Wins? 13.0
81.3 % of wins as Quality 56.5

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 32.139%
2 1 27.838%
1 2 21.267%
0 2 18.757%
(Series Win): 59.977%

 

I was talking quite a bit in the Discord about it this morning but with 369 returning after a long hiatus, don’t automatically assume he’ll be in tip top shape immediately. This goes the same for just about any player coming off of a long layoff, especially when we have no true idea in the first place why he hasn’t been starting all season and don’t believe everything teams tell you. Treat this like a horizontal move. QingTian might have struggled last series but for the most part he’s been good this season. While 369 has been one of the best top laners on the planet over the last two years it’s not like this is upgrading from a 4 to a 10. It also doesn’t necessarily solve every issue TOP have been having with their macro and drafts either so don’t get too hyped on this.

Anybody telling you they know this is going to be a good or a bad move is heavily speculating and hoping they look right. We simply don’t know. Operate as such.

My gut tells me TOP take care of business here but I really can’t justify a position on them and frankly I don’t know if this is fundamentally going to change anything about their approach to the game or not so I’m a little hesitant to wager on any derivatives either. First dragon for TOP looks very solid at -149 but maybe they shift to a more top centric look. Under 4.5 dragons is ALMOST agnostic to the situation at these price levels as long as it’s most of the teams in the LPL so I’ll be playing that.

 

My Picks:

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -141 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -141 (1 unit)

 


LCK Summer 2021

Week Eight – Day One

 

LCK After Week 7
Team Power # Rank
T1 0.7251974477 1
DWG 0.7078756096 2
NS 0.4611234305 3
LSB 0.3767619782 4
GEG 0.3164729676 5
AF 0.1648746963 6
KT -0.06174788977 7
HLE -0.2379550652 8
BRO -0.6694612152 9
DRX -1.78314196 10

 

LCK 2021 Summer Standings
Team Series Games Str
1 ⁠⁠Nongshim RedForce 10 – 3 77% 22 – 12 65% +10 5W
2 ⁠⁠Gen.G 9 – 4 69% 20 – 14 59% +6 2L
3 ⁠⁠DWG KIA 8 – 5 62% 20 – 12 63% +8 1W
4 ⁠⁠Liiv SANDBOX 8 – 5 62% 19 – 15 56% +4 3W
5 ⁠⁠T1 8 – 6 57% 19 – 15 56% +4 1L
6 ⁠⁠Afreeca Freecs 7 – 6 54% 16 – 17 48% -1 1W
7 ⁠⁠KT Rolster 5 – 8 38% 16 – 17 48% -1 1W
8 ⁠⁠Hanwha Life Esports 5 – 8 38% 12 – 20 38% -8 1W
9 ⁠⁠Fredit BRION 5 – 9 36% 17 – 20 46% -3 2L
10 ⁠⁠DRX 1 – 12 8% 6 – 25 19% -19 4L

(standings from Leaguepedia.com)

 

The clear standout here is Nongshim and it makes quite a bit of sense. They’ve had a lot of wins off the backs of hero plays and while there’s nothing really wrong with that, it should raise red flags for regression. This team is going to get smashed in playoffs I think. Are they good? Yes. Are they improved? Vastly. Are they THIS good? Absolutely not.

The other big standout is T1 who’s performance metrics continue to impress despite that not translating into wins. Obviously a candidate for positive regression to expectation.


 

 

 

Afreeca Freecs +289 (+1.5 maps @ -122, -1.5 @ +726)

vs

DAMWON Kia Gaming -370 (-1.5 maps @ -105, +1.5 @ -1429)

 

Map Moneyline: AF +199 / DWG -263

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -110 / under -119)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -125 / -7.5 @ -104

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -159 / under +122)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +132 / -169 (map), +166 / -202 (series), -205 / +157 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: Afreeca +1.5 maps and series moneyline (strong)

Trends
DWG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) AF as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 7 5 -663 Matches as Underdogs 6 4 +159
Against Map Spread 5 7 -31 Against Map Spread 7 3 -211
Against Kill Spread 13 17 6.6 Against Kill Spread 15 10 +4
Kill Totals 18 12 23.50 Kill Totals 9 16 23.30
Team Kill Totals 17 13 14.50 Team Kill Totals 13 12 10.00
Game Time Totals 19 11 31.2 Game Time Totals 16 9 32.60
Dragons over 4.5 13 17 Dragons over 4.5 17 8
Towers over 11.5 18 12 Towers over 11.5 14 11

 

 

League Rank DWG Tale of the Tape AF League Rank
8.0 -254.9 Gold Diff @ 10 min 41.9 5.0
6.0 82.0 Gold Diff @ 15 min 98.9 5.0
3.0 477.9 Gold Diff @ 20 min -138.4 7.0
23.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 0.0
4.0 6.4 Gold Diff / min first 20 16.1 2.0
4.0 95.9 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -46.7 7.0
1.0 1822.7 Gold /min (GPM) 1745.5 8.0
53.3 Gold / min vs Avg -23.8
2.0 95.9 Gold Diff / min -9.2 6.0
2.0 1.3 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.1 6.0
3.0 1629.7 Kill Agnostic GPM 1615.1 5.0
1.0 68.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -1.2 6.0
1.0 1957.6 GPM in wins 1883.7 9.0
2.0 349.9 Gold Diff per min in wins 281.7 7.0
9.0 1597.8 GPM in losses 1615.4 5.0
7.0 -327.6 Gold Diff per min in losses -282.9 3.0
97.5 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -7.5
1.0 39.3 Win-Adjusted GPM -34.5 9.0
2.0 45.4 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -22.8 7.0
2.0 56.3 Dragon Control % 50.0 6.0
3.0 58.1 Herald Control % 58.5 2.0
1.0 73.3 Baron Control % 45.7 7.0
12.0 Quality Wins? 7.0
60.0 % of wins as Quality 43.8

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 35.855%
2 1 28.771%
1 2 19.277%
0 2 16.097%
(Series Win): 64.626%

 

Slowly but surely, DAMWON are clawing their way back toward the top but the simple fact of the matter is that there isn’t a truly dominant team in the LCK. You have the bucket of “mostly good” teams and “more inconsistent” teams. What I’m getting at is that basically nobody in the LCK should be favored by this much against anybody and there is a lot more parity in the league than is convenient for most people to think about. Just look at the compression from 1st to 9th on the power ratings above. That’s a smaller delta than any other league. Just because there isn’t a dominant team doesn’t mean that it’s not just a competitive field. The entire LCK have taken steps forward, there’s a strong chance it’s just a competitive league that’s tough to really dominate.

Anyway, this is an Afreeca play. I think DAMWON are the better team and they’re starting to get it together after a rough start but this number is simply too large.

The model flagged a moderate value on the OVER 32:00 time total even at -159 suggesting that it should be more along a -190ish price point. I don’t hate that play but I like a few of the firsts for Afreeca much more. Both first herald and first tower show a strong advantage. I’m going to take first herald. While DAMWON have a 62.5% first herald rate, Afreeca boast a 69.7% for the season and we’re getting a plus number here.

LCK Kill Spread Winner? Kill Total Winner? Time Total Winner? FAV Team Total UND Team Total Dragons 4.5 Winner? Towers 11.5 Winner? First Game Kill Spread First game kill total First Game time total
Over / Fav 74 79 85 77 92 83 81 26 21 29
Under / Dog 93 88 82 90 75 84 85 40 45 21

 

I’m going to play a map one kill spread wager as well as over time and under kills which seems like a lot but check the evidence. 7.5 is a rather large spread to cover in the LCK with favorites only covering 14 out of 26 attempts with a spread of 7 or greater and DAMWON specifically going 6-5 as favorites of 7.5 kills or more. Map 1 kill spread specifically is generally a very solid play in the LCK given that totals have gone under in 45 out of 66 series. Unders help those getting the plus kills just like in football or any other sport. If you think about it, it makes a lot of sense. Both teams feeling each other out, both teams coming off of plenty of preparation time, particularly in the LCK with the three days off schedule and particularly in the first matches of the week this trend becomes even stronger. I’m going to be playing all three of these especially because the model marked them as +EV plays anyway.

 

My Picks:

First game angles

Kill Spread: Map 1 Afreeca +7.5 kills @ -125 (1 unit)

Time Total: Map 1 OVER 32:00 @ -159 (1 unit)

Kill Total (alt): Map 1 UNDER 22.5 @ +105 (1 unit)

—-

Moneyline: Afreeca +289 (1 unit)

Map Spread: Afreeca -1.5 maps @ +726 (0.25 units)

Prop: Map 1 Afreeca first herald @ +119 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 Afreeca first herald @ +119 (1 unit)

 

 


 

Hanwha Life Esports -455 (-1.5 maps @ -130, +1.5 @ -2000)

vs

DRX +338 (+1.5 maps @ +102, -1.5 @ +813)

 

Map Moneyline: HLE -333 / DRX +242

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -118 / +6.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +101 / under -132)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -250 / +188 (map), -370 / +283 (series), +101 / -129 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: DRX +1.5 maps (light)

Trends
HLE as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) DRX as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 3 4 -183 Matches as Underdogs 1 11 +314
Against Map Spread 1 6 +179 Against Map Spread 5 7 -72
Against Kill Spread 8 9 3.5 Against Kill Spread 11 18 +6
Kill Totals 7 10 23.79 Kill Totals 17 12 22.83
Team Kill Totals 6 11 12.64 Team Kill Totals 11 18 8.58
Game Time Totals 6 11 32.9 Game Time Totals 13 16 32.33
Dragons over 4.5 8 9 Dragons over 4.5 10 19
Towers over 11.5 9 8 Towers over 11.5 13 15

 

League Rank HLE Tale of the Tape DRX League Rank
3.0 429.4 Gold Diff @ 10 min -391.4 9.0
4.0 173.8 Gold Diff @ 15 min -965.1 9.0
5.0 -206.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1605.3 10.0
7.8 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -27.7
6.0 3.3 Gold Diff / min first 20 -80.8 10.0
9.0 -227.4 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -572.3 10.0
7.0 1748.6 Gold /min (GPM) 1666.7 10.0
-20.8 Gold / min vs Avg -102.6
9.0 -64.8 Gold Diff / min -231.3 10.0
9.0 -0.8 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -3.2 10.0
9.0 1595.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1560.3 10.0
8.0 -32.3 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -126.7 10.0
4.0 1941.1 GPM in wins 1846.7 10.0
1.0 370.2 Gold Diff per min in wins 247.3 10.0
2.0 1633.1 GPM in losses 1623.5 4.0
6.0 -325.8 Gold Diff per min in losses -346.1 9.0
-63.2 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -229.6
4.0 22.9 Win-Adjusted GPM -71.5 10.0
1.0 65.7 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -57.2 10.0
9.0 42.4 Dragon Control % 30.4 10.0
1.0 58.7 Herald Control % 39.0 8.0
9.0 36.6 Baron Control % 22.9 10.0
9.0 Quality Wins? 1.0
75.0 % of wins as Quality 16.7

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 46.760%
2 1 29.570%
1 2 13.673%
0 2 9.998%
(Series Win): 76.329%

This DRX team is god awful and I don’t really want anything to do with them but this is an awfully big number for a Hanwha Life team that beats themselves up more than Jim Carey in ‘Liar Liar’. Push come to shove I’d back the underdogs here and hold my nose while doing it. Classic close your eyes special but instead I’m looking elsewhere.

You guessed it… again to the first game narrative.

 

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Map 1 DRX +6.5 kills @ -111 (1 unit)

Time Total: Map 1 OVER 33:00 @ +101 (1 unit)

Kill Total (alt): Map 1 UNDER 22.5 @ +100 (1 unit)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and you can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

Leave a Reply