Wednesday, July 21st Recap

 

Suning vs LNG Esports (Net: -3.25 units)

FunPlus Phoenix vs OMG (Net: -0.53 units)

 

LPL Net Total: -3.78 units

 

Daily Net Total: -3.78 units

 

 


LPL Summer 2021

Week Seven – Day Four

 

 

Royal Never Give Up -1000 (-1.5 maps @ -278)

vs

UltraPrime +560 (+1.5 maps @ +169, -1.5 @ +1277)

 

Map Moneyline: RNG -526 / UP +350

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -105 / under -123)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -116 / +8.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 7.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -119 / under -110)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -345 / +248 (map), -652 / +417 (series), -154 / +100 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: UltraPrime +1.5 maps

Starters:

RNG – Xiaohu, Wei, Cryin, GALA, Ming

UP – Zs, H4cker, Xiaocaobao, Smlz, ShiauC

 

Trends
RNG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) UP as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 4 3 -1343 Matches as Underdogs 0 4 +481
Against Map Spread 4 3 -45 Against Map Spread 1 3 -39
Against Kill Spread 8 8 7.4 Against Kill Spread 4 5 +8
Kill Totals 10 6 25.64 Kill Totals 8 1 25.25
Team Kill Totals 7 9 15.79 Team Kill Totals 7 2 8.50
Game Time Totals 6 10 29.9 Game Time Totals 5 4 29.75
Dragons over 4.5 5 11 Dragons over 4.5 4 5
Towers over 11.5 7 9 Towers over 11.5 6 3

 

 

League Rank Royal Never GU Tale of the Tape UP League Rank
4 492.7 Gold Diff @ 10 min -24.5 10
3 1652.1 Gold Diff @ 15 min -368.3 11
3 2100.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -100.0 13
48.3 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -4.3
3 45.8 Gold Diff / min first 20 -41.9 12
9 337.9 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -225.7 17
3 1857.8 Gold /min (GPM) 1728.8 14
68.7 Gold / min vs Avg -60.3
5 85.9 Gold Diff / min -134.3 14
5 1.2 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -1.8 14
2 1652.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1567.6 13
3 75.3 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -66.7 13
5 1984.9 GPM in wins 1938.2 11
4 361.6 Gold Diff per min in wins 347.5 9
2 1679.7 GPM in losses 1635.7 9
8 -300.1 Gold Diff per min in losses -348.4 13
89.7 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -130.4
5 34.5 Win-Adjusted GPM -12.2 11
4 39.1 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 25.1 9
12 48.1 Dragon Control % 48.7 10
6 54.2 Herald Control % 36.5 16
13 46.9 Baron Control % 41.7 14
9.0 Quality Wins? 5.0
64.3 % of wins as Quality 62.5

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 55.331%
2 1 28.346%
1 2 9.761%
0 2 6.561%
(Series Win): 83.677%

Royal Never Give Up appear to be getting more and more comfortable with the Summer patches as we go along or perhaps they were coasting a bit to start the season like we saw a handful of the MSI attendees do. Either way, they’re looking much more like the team we saw in the Spring split and the data supports that as well with strong trending performance ratings.

UltraPrime are more or less a known quantity as this point. They’ve performed dreadfully against the top of the table with the long exception being the match win against LNG (2-1). They took game one off of WE but were absolutely dominated in the next two games in their most recent series. More or less every other time they’ve played a good team they’ve gotten completely smoked. These games were not close.

I very rarely play kill spreads in the LPL and I’m a little squeamish to do so here but UltraPrime get absolutely destroyed when they play good teams.

Royal Never GU League Average UP
Combined Kills / game 23.750 26.84 27.575
Combined Kills / min 0.786 0.88 0.890
Kills per win 15.696 18.63 16.906
Kills per loss 9.169 9.42 9.125
Deaths per win 7.93 8.63 6.13
Deaths per loss 21.90 18.51 20.06
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 9.21 9.84 10.50
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 12.00 9.73 10.76

RNG have had a few shakey games here and there, thinking of that hilarious V5 one, but I’m going to play the kill spread here.

Based on frequency metrics the OVER kill total was flagged but the projections for RNG maps tend to be very low in general as they’re one of the lower CKPM teams in the LPL so I’ll be passing. Makes that kill spread a little dicier but tough to ignore that delta. Opt for the map spread if you prefer.

In terms of firsts and neutrals, RNG first blood showed a large edge on market price as well as UP first dragon (RNG first blood slightly larger). Under 12.5 towers at -400 showed a little value as well but that’s been a volatile market in recent play.

 

My Picks:

Prop: Map 1 RNG first blood @ -143 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 RNG first blood @ -143 (1 unit)

Kill Spread: Map 1 RNG -8.5 kills @ -116 (1 unit)

Kill Spread: Map 2 RNG -8.5 kills @ -120 (1 unit)

 


 

BiliBili Gaming +127 (+1.5 maps @ -256, -1.5 @ +342)

vs

RareAtom -164 (-1.5 maps @ +193, +1.5 @ -500)

 

Map Moneyline: BLG +120 / RA -154

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -116 / under -112)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -120 / -5.5 @ -108

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +100 / under -130)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -110 / -117 (map), -108 / -119 (series), -339 / +247 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: BiliBili series moneyline (moderate-light)

Starters:

BLG – Biubiu, Weiwei, Zeka, Aiming, ppgod

RA – Cube, Leyan, FoFo, iBoy, Hang

 

Trends
RA as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) BLG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 4 2 -1006 Matches as Underdogs 2 4 +234
Against Map Spread 3 3 -159 Against Map Spread 4 2 -120
Against Kill Spread 5 10 8.0 Against Kill Spread 7 8 +7
Kill Totals 7 8 25.17 Kill Totals 8 7 25.50
Team Kill Totals 6 9 16.17 Team Kill Totals 8 7 9.50
Game Time Totals 8 7 29.8 Game Time Totals 10 5 30.83
Dragons over 4.5 8 7 Dragons over 4.5 6 9
Towers over 11.5 6 9 Towers over 11.5 10 5

 

 

League Rank RA Tale of the Tape BiliBili League Rank
7 119.6 Gold Diff @ 10 min -241.7 12
6 407.2 Gold Diff @ 15 min -473.2 12
6 54.8 Gold Diff @ 20 min -562.5 9
26.4 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 9.8
6 75.4 Gold Diff / min first 20 33.3 8
11 258.6 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 389.5 6
11 1796.7 Gold /min (GPM) 1833.6 6
7.6 Gold / min vs Avg 44.5
9 61.0 Gold Diff / min 83.8 6
9 0.9 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.2 6
9 1615.6 Kill Agnostic GPM 1635.2 4
6 45.5 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 64.5 5
14 1916.0 GPM in wins 1977.3 7
12 296.3 Gold Diff per min in wins 362.6 3
12 1612.2 GPM in losses 1630.1 10
9 -302.6 Gold Diff per min in losses -311.1 10
64.9 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 87.6
14 -34.4 Win-Adjusted GPM 26.9 7
12 -26.1 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 40.1 3
4 56.3 Dragon Control % 51.9 8
3 60.0 Herald Control % 50.0 9
11 50.0 Baron Control % 67.6 1
8.0 Quality Wins? 12.0
47.1 % of wins as Quality 70.6

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 25.775%
2 1 25.378%
1 2 24.610%
0 2 24.237%
(Series Win): 51.153%

 

It’d be easy to point to RareAtom’s loss to Rogue Warriors and want to fade them coming off of that match while also looking at BiliBili coming off of a match win against JDG. It’s one of those weird double confirmation bias kind of situations for a lot of people. You cannot think about it that way.

The model likes BiliBili a bit here and I do think this is probably a little too heavy handed.  BiliBili have quietly been one of the better teams in the LPL this season despite their overall record. They rank 4th in kill agnostic gold per minute and 5th in kill agnostic gold differential and while those haven’t been quite as predictive as usual given the metagame, they do provide insight into the fact that BLG are consistently generating advantages through playing the map well. They’re also a league best 67% in baron control.

I’ll be on the underdogs again here although there is a chance we get a let-down spot after a big win over JDG the other day. I just think this number is too heavy handed and these two should be closer to even money.

In terms of derivatives the strongest play available is BiliBili first tower which I’ll also be on, double dipping a little here.

 

My Picks:

(update: this was about when my power went out, line moved in our favor slightly)

Moneyline: BiliBili +137 (1 unit)

Map Spread: BiliBili -1.5 maps 2 +370 (0.25 units)

Prop: Map 1 BiliBili first tower @ +106 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 BiliBili first tower @ +106 (1 unit)

 

 

 


 

LCK Summer

Week Seven – Day One

 

LCK Ratings After Week 6
Team Power # Rank
GEG 1.147574303 1
T1 0.8973119949 2
NS 0.3173263125 3
DWG 0.2297828731 4
BRO 0.08656041879 5
LSB 0.0710131023 6
AF 0.04983938391 7
KT -0.5558908087 8
HLE -0.815490981 9
DRX -1.428026599 10

 

 

LCK 2021 Summer Standings
Team Series Games Str
1 ⁠⁠Gen.G 9 – 2 82% 18 – 10 64% +8 2W
2 ⁠⁠Nongshim RedForce 9 – 3 75% 20 – 11 65% +9 4W
3 ⁠⁠DWG KIA 7 – 5 58% 18 – 12 60% +6 2L
4 ⁠⁠T1 7 – 5 58% 16 – 12 57% +4 2W
5 ⁠⁠Liiv SANDBOX 6 – 5 55% 15 – 13 54% +2 1W
6 ⁠⁠Afreeca Freecs 6 – 5 55% 13 – 14 48% -1 1L
7 ⁠⁠Fredit BRION 5 – 7 42% 15 – 16 48% -1 2W
8 ⁠⁠Hanwha Life Esports 4 – 7 36% 10 – 17 37% -7 2L
9 ⁠⁠KT Rolster 4 – 8 33% 14 – 17 45% -3 2L
10 ⁠⁠DRX 1 – 11 8% 6 – 23 21% -17 3L

(standings compliments of Leaguepedia.com)


 

Liiv Sandbox +275 (+1.5 maps @ -119, -1.5 @ +669)

vs

Gen.G -357 (-1.5 maps @ -108, +1.5 @ -1250)

 

Map Moneyline: LSB +201 / GEG -270

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -119 / -6.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -127 / under -103)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +180 / -238 (map), +265 / -342 (series), -136 / +107 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: none

 

Trends
GEG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) LSB as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 9 2 -404 Matches as Underdogs 4 3 +218
Against Map Spread 3 8 -12 Against Map Spread 6 1 -127
Against Kill Spread 14 14 6.4 Against Kill Spread 11 7 +5
Kill Totals 15 13 23.14 Kill Totals 9 9 23.64
Team Kill Totals 14 14 14.32 Team Kill Totals 11 7 9.36
Game Time Totals 14 14 32.1 Game Time Totals 7 11 32.43
Dragons over 4.5 14 14 Dragons over 4.5 7 11
Towers over 11.5 13 15 Towers over 11.5 9 9

 

 

League Rank GEG Tale of the Tape LSB League Rank
3.0 315.4 Gold Diff @ 10 min -182.2 6.0
2.0 734.4 Gold Diff @ 15 min 161.6 3.0
2.0 -149.4 Gold Diff @ 20 min -61.0 5.0
10.0 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -3.7
2.0 39.0 Gold Diff / min first 20 -13.3 7.0
1.0 429.0 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -7.2 5.0
1.0 1840.1 Gold /min (GPM) 1770.5 5.0
71.5 Gold / min vs Avg 1.9
1.0 149.1 Gold Diff / min -26.6 7.0
1.0 2.1 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.4 7.0
2.0 1641.5 Kill Agnostic GPM 1618.0 5.0
1.0 84.5 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -8.2 6.0
1.0 1954.7 GPM in wins 1925.3 7.0
2.0 350.4 Gold Diff per min in wins 263.4 8.0
3.0 1633.7 GPM in losses 1591.8 8.0
2.0 -213.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -361.3 10.0
148.9 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -26.8
1.0 36.6 Win-Adjusted GPM 7.1 7.0
2.0 43.7 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -43.3 8.0
2.0 58.9 Dragon Control % 52.0 4.0
10.0 36.4 Herald Control % 57.7 2.0
2.0 67.6 Baron Control % 50.0 5.0
11.0 Quality Wins? 5.0
61.1 % of wins as Quality 50.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 45.362%
2 1 29.620%
1 2 14.359%
0 2 10.660%
(Series Win): 74.982%

There’s a some stirring that super prospect jungler Youngjae is going to get a chance to start for Gen.G in this contest. For those that don’t know, he’s absolutely dominated the challenger scene in Korea for awhile now and it’ll be cool to see him get a shot. Kid is really REALLY good.

Gen.G have been a bit of a weird team because they’re choosing to play sub-optimal League of Legends, at least in my opinion, at the moment. They really just have an aversion to getting the ball rolling through herald, instead preferring to try to scale and get gold leads the old fashioned way with lane domination and ganks. In a lot of ways they’re playing like TOP Esports did for large swaths of the 2020 season albeit with significantly worse herald control. The thing is, other than that, Gen.G have been an outstanding team. It’s the only real hole in their game overall and my only reservation in backing them. T1 and Gen.G have significantly stronger economies than every other team in the LCK.

Sandbox’s avenue to win this matchup is through early snowballing. Their biggest strength here is Gen.G’s weakness which is snowballing leads through herald gold and getting games over with.

When you have a situation like this where you have opposite styles clashing it can sometimes get a little weird. The games will most likely end up lopsided most of the time but that doesn’t mean I think LSB don’t snowball one of these. I’ll be avoiding a side in this contest. I’ll also be avoiding the “style” firsts bets. LSB first herald and tower show huge edge on the market price but I’m not sure if Gen.G are going to be a different looking team with Youngjae starting.

The play I like most here is actually the kill total over. 57.89% and 60.71% of games for these two have gone over the 22.5 total vs the market price of 54.34%. My projections also make this total 25.443 kills. When you get younger players you’ll occasionally see “rookie nerves” but MOST of the time the games are more action packed, for better or worse. Youngjae is a play maker, I’d expect him to try to prove himself and succeed here.

I’ll briefly mention that in terms of motivation, this is a crucial spot for Sandbox. Gen.G sit atop the table at 9-2 so they’ve got some cushion and will almost definitely secure a playoff berth, and a high seed at that with their two match lead over DAMWON and T1. Sandbox, however, are right in the thick of the competitive middle of the table where every single game is going to potentially count for those final playoff spots. Expect Liiv Sandbox to be dialed in and well-prepared for this series with how important it is. Could maybe give them the motivation edge here if you’re looking for a reason to back the underdogs.

My Picks:

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 22.5 @ -119 (1 unit)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 23.5 @ -114 (1 unit)

 


 

Afreeca Freecs +230 (+1.5 maps @ -145, -1.5 @ +560)

vs

T1 -286 (-1.5 maps @ +114, +1.5 @ -1000)

 

Map Moneyline: AF +176 / T1 -233

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -116 / under -112)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -109 / -5.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -119 / under -110)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +160 / -210 (map), +224 / -278 (series), -157 / +123 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: none

Trends
T1 as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) AF as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 5 4 -365 Matches as Underdogs 5 3 +145
Against Map Spread 4 5 +43 Against Map Spread 5 3 -225
Against Kill Spread 8 12 5.8 Against Kill Spread 12 7 +3
Kill Totals 7 13 23.28 Kill Totals 8 11 23.38
Team Kill Totals 9 11 13.72 Team Kill Totals 10 9 10.38
Game Time Totals 10 10 32.4 Game Time Totals 11 8 32.50
Dragons over 4.5 10 10 Dragons over 4.5 12 7
Towers over 11.5 10 10 Towers over 11.5 11 8

 

League Rank T1 Tale of the Tape AF League Rank
1.0 784.8 Gold Diff @ 10 min -562.5 10.0
1.0 1359.9 Gold Diff @ 15 min 76.4 4.0
1.0 1774.9 Gold Diff @ 20 min -116.4 6.0
50.7 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -0.1
1.0 69.2 Gold Diff / min first 20 21.0 3.0
2.0 191.2 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -26.6 7.0
2.0 1823.2 Gold /min (GPM) 1759.1 6.0
54.7 Gold / min vs Avg -9.5
2.0 95.0 Gold Diff / min 0.5 5.0
2.0 1.4 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.1 5.0
1.0 1654.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1621.8 3.0
2.0 57.3 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 9.2 4.0
5.0 1928.2 GPM in wins 1901.4 8.0
3.0 325.4 Gold Diff per min in wins 314.0 5.0
1.0 1683.3 GPM in losses 1626.8 4.0
1.0 -212.1 Gold Diff per min in losses -290.6 3.0
94.9 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 0.4
5.0 10.0 Win-Adjusted GPM -16.7 8.0
3.0 18.6 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 7.3 5.0
7.0 48.9 Dragon Control % 50.0 6.0
6.0 50.0 Herald Control % 64.2 1.0
3.0 55.8 Baron Control % 47.4 7.0
8.0 Quality Wins? 7.0
50.0 % of wins as Quality 53.8

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 41.817%
2 1 29.551%
1 2 16.147%
0 2 12.485%
(Series Win): 71.368%

Some of Afreeca’s old problems with punting leads have been coming back to haunt Afreeca a bit in recent matches but generally they’ve been a strong team this season. T1 won their first two matches with the new coaching staff, sweeping KT in dominant fashion and battling it out in game two to bring it back for an eventual 2-1 series win over DAMWON.

This is a critical match for both teams. T1 are just 7-5 in match score despite being ranked in the clear elite tier with Gen.G in the model ratings. I actually happen to agree with this. T1 are doing just about everything right they’ve had a few really unfortunate mishaps at very bad times which might be cause for concern but the general foundation they have is very VERY solid. Afreeca sit not far behind at 6-5, a win here would move them ahead of Sandbox and T1 in a very contested middle of the table in the LCK.

I expect this matchup to be much closer than it might look on paper. I kind of like Afreeca more than the model does in this spot but not quite enough to really justify a position.

My favorite bet on the board for this one is actually Afreeca first herald at -115. Afreeca have a 74.07% first herald rate compared to the T1 39.29% on the season. T1 have been more of a Gen.G style of team opting for dragon scaling and lane advantages over the gold snowball provided by herald. Afreeca have been much the opposite, preferring to get the ball rolling that way.

My Picks:

Prop: Map 1 Afreeca first herald @ -115 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 Afreeca first herald @ -115 (1 unit)

 

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and you can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

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