Wednesday, June 30th Recap

 

Team WE vs BiliBili (Net: -3.5 units)

Royal Never Give Up vs TOP ESports (no action)

 

T1 vs KT Rolster (Net: -3.53 units)

Gen.G vs Fredit Brion (Net: +0.9 units)

 

LPL Net Total: -3.5 units

LCK Net Total: -2.63 units

 

Daily Net Total: -6.13 units

 

The total landing on 22 both of the first two games was a bummer as that was the biggest position and biggest edge on the board. Another rough day but it’s a marathon not a sprint.

The LPL is off on Thursday for a holiday and will resume again on Friday.

 


 

LCK Summer 2021

Week Four – Day Two

 

 

 

Afreeca Freecs -141 (-1.5 maps @ +203, +1.5 @ -476)

vs

Liiv Sandbox +117 (+1.5 maps @ -270, -1.5 @ +325)

 

Map Moneyline: AF -139 / LSB +109

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -116 / under -112)

Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -116 / +3.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +108 / under -141)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  -182 / +141 (map), -225 / +183 (series), +145 / -187 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: Afreeca series moneyline and -1.5 maps

League Rank AF Tale of the Tape LSB League Rank
1.0 650.4 Gold Diff @ 10 min -122.7 7.0
5.0 287.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min 215.7 6.0
2.0 13.6 Gold Diff @ 20 min -241.0 3.0
20.4 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 25.3
4.0 54.1 Gold Diff / min first 20 18.8 3.0
4.0 423.4 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -30.2 5.0
3.0 1790.3 Gold /min (GPM) 1760.2 6.0
26.8 Gold / min vs Avg -3.4
3.0 60.8 Gold Diff / min -27.3 8.0
3.0 0.9 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.4 8.0
2.0 1656.5 Kill Agnostic GPM 1610.6 5.0
2.0 75.3 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -0.7 7.0
7.0 1914.2 GPM in wins 1911.6 8.0
5.0 317.7 Gold Diff per min in wins 259.5 8.0
5.0 1625.2 GPM in losses 1587.2 8.0
3.0 -281.6 Gold Diff per min in losses -355.0 9.0
63.2 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -24.9
7.0 8.5 Win-Adjusted GPM 5.8 8.0
5.0 27.4 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -30.8 8.0
4.0 51.5 Dragon Control % 51.6 3.0
1.0 71.4 Herald Control % 69.0 2.0
4.0 57.9 Baron Control % 44.4 8.0
5.0 Quality Wins? 2.0
62.5 % of wins as Quality 66.7

 

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 37.795%
2 1 29.119%
1 2 18.246%
0 2 14.839%
(Series Win): 66.915%

 

So the real question here is whether or not Afreeca are legitimate or not. The model likes them quite a bit primarily to some very high categories like herald control contributing to make their overall objective control rating the highest in the league. The LCK is very firmly divided between herald teams (Afreeca, Liiv Sandbox, and DAMWON) who put a very high premium on obtaining this objective early and often and the rest of the league who are more reactive and prefer dragon scaling as an option. The catch here is that Afreeca aren’t sacrificing dragon priority in order to also secure heralds like a lot of these other teams do. Correlated is their league #2 gold differential at 20 minutes despite only having an 8-6 record. Afreeca rank 2nd in overall economy, first in overall objective control, and 2nd in early game rating. Their post-20 minute economy is 2nd only to Gen.G as well. For all intents and purposes, Afreeca are legitimately good and I think those that are denying this new reality need to wake up.

Now here’s the catch, Sandbox have been consistently underrated by the market and while the model favors Afreeca quite a bit in this contest it’s interesting how similar these two teams actually are. Both aim to control the game early and push the pace and they do so by placing the heaviest emphasis on herald of all teams in the LCK. For this reason I actually think this series is going to be closer than the model does.

That said, Afreeca are putting up higher kill agnostic gold per minute than all but the top three LPL teams in that category, and better kill agnostic gold differential per minute than all but the top four LPL teams. I think Liiv Sandbox can make this competitive. I think these two teams have the correct idea on how to play LOL on this patch but that Afreeca are generally a higher quality team thus far. I’ll take the favorites as I still think there is an edge on the market price just not as big an edge as looking at the numbers alone.

The model flagged the under 33 as showing as short edge as well and given the uptempo pace that these two play at I think that regardless of who wins you’ll see games on the faster side of things as both are very adept at snowballing advantages.

 

My Picks:

UPDATE: This moved to an even shorter number. Somebody out there likes Sandbox a lot but I’ll be sticking with my play on the favorites.

Moneyline: Afreeca -127 (2.54 units)

Map Spread: Afreeca -1.5 maps @ +223 (1 unit)

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ -141 (1.41 units)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ -164 (1.64 units)

 


DRX +161 (+1.5 maps @ -194, -1.5 @ +437)

vs

Hanwha Life Esports -198 (-1.5 maps @ +158, +1.5 @ -604)

 

Map Moneyline: DRX +140 / HLE -171

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -119 / under -111)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -118 / -4.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +118 / under -158)

(lines from Pinnacle)

 

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  -104 / -117 (map), -101 / -120 (series), -314 / +246 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: DRX series moneyline

League Rank HLE Tale of the Tape DRX League Rank
10.0 -691.6 Gold Diff @ 10 min -512.5 9.0
10.0 -1169.4 Gold Diff @ 15 min -649.1 8.0
10.0 -939.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -126.9 9.0
-30.3 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -43.9
9.0 -76.5 Gold Diff / min first 20 -71.1 10.0
9.0 -425.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -606.1 10.0
9.0 1689.4 Gold /min (GPM) 1652.5 10.0
-74.2 Gold / min vs Avg -111.1
9.0 -168.8 Gold Diff / min -251.1 10.0
9.0 -2.3 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -3.5 10.0
10.0 1556.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1567.5 9.0
9.0 -89.9 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -149.5 10.0
5.0 1921.6 GPM in wins 1797.3 10.0
1.0 379.1 Gold Diff per min in wins 99.4 10.0
4.0 1626.1 GPM in losses 1628.4 3.0
7.0 -318.2 Gold Diff per min in losses -309.5 5.0
-166.4 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -248.7
5.0 15.8 Win-Adjusted GPM -108.4 10.0
1.0 88.9 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -190.9 10.0
9.0 35.0 Dragon Control % 33.3 10.0
9.0 37.0 Herald Control % 25.0 10.0
9.0 25.0 Baron Control % 11.8 10.0
2.0 Quality Wins? 0.0
66.7 % of wins as Quality 0.0

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 26.515%
2 1 25.724%
1 2 24.232%
0 2 23.529%
(Series Win): 52.239%

 

These two have been BY FAR the two worst teams in terms of performance metrics which makes a lot of sense given their records so far but even adjusting for wins and losses these are some UGLY looking sheets. Hanwha took a game off of DAMWON before being smashed in the next two but their only other game wins of the season are against Brion.

I’ll be honest, I didn’t put as much thought into this one primarily because I wrote up DAMWON vs Nongshim by mistake (it’s already up by the way). This is much more of an instinct or “gut” handicap but with how poorly these two have been playing I think it’s legitimately a coinflip. Hanwha have to snowball an advantage because DRX are probably just going to play their scaling looks like they always do and I simply don’t trust that team to do this right now. The argument against this is that Chovy is by far the best player on the rift in this match and he might just be able to 1v9 this series.

If you want to back Chovy and think he can do this all himself then I think just stay away from this, but I’m going to hold my nose and back the underdogs.

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: DRX +161 (1 unit)

Map Spread: DRX -1.5 maps @ +437 (0.5 units)


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and you can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

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