Wednesday, June 14th Recap

 

OMG vs UltraPrime (Net: -3.67 units)

I don’t quite get how OMG keep getting away with it but they always seem to find a way to win some mid to late game team fight that they have no business whatsoever winning. It reminds me a lot of DRX during Spring split. They have a good read on the metagame, a new player helping them out a lot but it just seems like other teams completely crumble against them for whatever reason. I have absolutely no idea how they won the fight at 26:00 or even why this game was that close to begin with.

Suning vs Rogue Warriors (Net: -3.805 units)

The fact that this game three turned into the absolute clown fiesta with the triple throw at the end of it back and forth tells you all you need to know. Suning no-show’d this match which is just infuriating. They looked checked out the entire series.

 

 

Daily Net Total: -7.457 units

 

I just can’t with this league anymore… I’ve picked losing favorites with surgical precision this season. Think these patches are sort of exposing the sloppiness you see in the LPL in all of it’s glory but I need to make that adjustment.

 


LPL Summer 2021

Week Six – Day Four

 

Victory Five +867 (+1.5 maps @ +220, -1.5 @ +2200)

vs

Royal Never Give Up -2000 (-1.5 maps @ -294)

 

Map Moneyline: V5 +598 / RNG -1111

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -111 / under -118)

Kill Spread: +10.5 @ -114 / -10.5 @ -115

Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 18.5

Time Total: 29:00 (over -112 / under -116)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  +265 / -369 (map), +465 / -726 (series), +119 / -151 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: V5 +1.5 maps

Starters:

V5 – Aliez, Pzx, Uniboy, Kepler, Reheal

RNG – Xiaohu, Wei, Cryin, GALA, Ming

 

Trends
RNG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) V5 as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 3 3 -1233 Matches as Underdogs 0 8 +631
Against Map Spread 3 3 -3 Against Map Spread 1 7 +79
Against Kill Spread 7 7 6.8 Against Kill Spread 6 11 +9
Kill Totals 10 4 25.50 Kill Totals 8 9 25.75
Team Kill Totals 7 7 15.33 Team Kill Totals 7 10 8.38
Game Time Totals 5 9 30.0 Game Time Totals 9 8 29.75
Dragons over 4.5 4 10 Dragons over 4.5 7 10
Towers over 11.5 6 8 Towers over 11.5 7 10

 

League Rank Royal Never GU Tale of the Tape Victory Five League Rank
8 126.9 Gold Diff @ 10 min -2061.3 17
4 886.3 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1163.6 13
4 825.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -352.7 17
45.6 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -99.2
3 15.8 Gold Diff / min first 20 -199.5 16
9 296.0 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 8.6 14
5 1838.6 Gold /min (GPM) 1593.7 17
52.8 Gold / min vs Avg -192.1
9 27.1 Gold Diff / min -355.0 17
9 0.4 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -5.0 17
4 1627.2 Kill Agnostic GPM 1485.5 17
8 38.5 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -203.2 17
3 1997.4 GPM in wins 1991.6 4
4 354.4 Gold Diff per min in wins 417.0 1
3 1679.7 GPM in losses 1571.6 16
8 -300.1 Gold Diff per min in losses -397.9 14
35.6 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -346.5
3 50.0 Win-Adjusted GPM 44.2 4
4 36.2 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 98.8 1
10 48.3 Dragon Control % 29.6 17
6 52.5 Herald Control % 42.1 13
14 40.7 Baron Control % 13.0 17
7.0 Quality Wins? 1.0
70.0 % of wins as Quality 100.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 57.234%
2 1 27.869%
1 2 8.969%
0 2 5.928%
(Series Win): 85.103%

 

This is exactly the kind of spot where Victory Five would get their first match win of the season and honestly that’s exactly the way the LPL has been going this season but you can’t just go on hunches like that. I have my concerns about RNG and there are rumors that Cryin could be seeing the bench soon. Hard to disagree with the performance we’ve seen from him thus far in Summer but I’d assume RNG start to round into form at least to some extent it’s just a matter of how much of a return to that form we will actually see and that’s what I question.

RNG have real concerns and there’s just no way I’d back their side in this match but Victory Five are next level bad.

The biggest edges in this series are in derivatives. Kill total overs look nice given the following:

Royal Never GU League Average Victory Five
Combined Kills / game 29.625 27.01 24.403
Combined Kills / min 0.987 0.88 0.817
Kills per win 19.663 18.63 23.000
Kills per loss 9.169 9.67 11.740
Deaths per win 9.50 8.63 9.00
Deaths per loss 21.90 18.55 17.28
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 9.70 9.83 14.00
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 12.00 9.52 10.61
Combined Avg Kills / game 27.014
Time-Implied Total 27.731
Book Odds Weighted 31.506
Rating Weighted 31.589
Underdog Win Projection 32.169
“Gelati” Total Projection 28.778

You could make a reasoanble case for V5 first herald as well showing a double digit edge on market price there but I think there’s a reasonable change they just get completely steamrolled here.

My Picks:

 

Kill Total (alt): Map 1 OVER 25.5 @ -133 (1 unit)

Kill Total (alt): Map 2 OVER 25.5 @ -133 (1 unit)

 

 


 

BiliBili Gaming +217 (+1.5 maps @ -143, -1.5 @ +629)

vs

TOP Esports -294 (-1.5 maps @ +112, +1.5 @ -1250)

 

Map Moneyline: BLG +187 / TOP -244

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -111 / -6.5 @ -118

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 16.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -110 / under -119)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  -109 / -116 (map), -108 / -119 (series), -338 / +247 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: BiliBili series moneyline, +1.5 maps, and -1.5 maps

Starters:

BLG – Biubiu, Weiwei, Zeka, Aiming, ppgod

TOP – Qingtian, Karsa, Knight, JackeyLove, Yuyanjia

 

Trends
TOP as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) BLG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 4 3 -1352 Matches as Underdogs 1 3 +252
Against Map Spread 3 4 +6 Against Map Spread 3 1 -99
Against Kill Spread 8 9 6.2 Against Kill Spread 5 6 +7
Kill Totals 10 7 26.21 Kill Totals 5 6 25.25
Team Kill Totals 9 8 15.50 Team Kill Totals 6 5 9.00
Game Time Totals 9 8 30.6 Game Time Totals 9 2 30.75
Dragons over 4.5 7 10 Dragons over 4.5 6 5
Towers over 11.5 9 8 Towers over 11.5 7 4

 

 

League Rank TOP Tale of the Tape BiliBili League Rank
4 348.0 Gold Diff @ 10 min 343.8 5
11 -82.0 Gold Diff @ 15 min 462.5 6
7 159.2 Gold Diff @ 20 min 1000.0 2
15.5 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 8.1
7 16.8 Gold Diff / min first 20 43.1 8
5 417.2 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 385.9 6
4 1845.1 Gold /min (GPM) 1832.6 6
59.3 Gold / min vs Avg 46.8
4 121.8 Gold Diff / min 101.7 5
4 1.7 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.4 5
6 1622.8 Kill Agnostic GPM 1637.0 3
4 68.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 73.1 3
8 1960.4 GPM in wins 1977.8 6
10 318.6 Gold Diff per min in wins 372.5 3
7 1647.3 GPM in losses 1634.5 10
2 -215.6 Gold Diff per min in losses -267.6 5
130.3 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 110.2
8 13.0 Win-Adjusted GPM 30.4 6
10 0.4 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 54.3 3
3 58.3 Dragon Control % 51.7 7
4 57.9 Herald Control % 51.9 9
3 65.5 Baron Control % 65.6 2
10.0 Quality Wins? 11.0
83.3 % of wins as Quality 73.3

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 25.847%
2 1 25.413%
1 2 24.573%
0 2 24.167%
(Series Win): 51.260%

 

Yuyanjia is making his return to the lineup. He was solid most of last year and I was somewhat surprised when he got the boot for Zhuo coming into this season. I wouldn’t expect a dramatic increase or decrease in performance for the bottom lane either way. Yuyanjia is an excellent engage support player.

Other than priors I have absolutely no idea why TOP Esports are this heavily favored right now. They beat a struggling RNG and had the surprise win over the kings of the LPL right now in EDG but then they also lost to Suning in a weird game three. BLG have slowly improved as the season has gone on with mixed performances against the top teams with perhaps their biggest highlight beinga win over FPX.

The model makes this close to even money right now and even if you want to bake in some regression for TOP Esports it’s pretty damn difficult to get to the price that the book is implying with these odds (roughly 75/25%). I’ll take the underdogs. It’s by far the biggest edge across the sides and derivatives in this match with the other standout being BLG first tower at +114.

 

My Picks:

 

Map Spread: BLG +1.5 maps @ -143 (2.86 units)

Moneyline: BLG +217 (1 unit)

Map Spread: BLG -1.5 maps @ +629 (0.5 units)

 


LCK Summer 2021

Week Six – Day One

 

I did a big picture breakdown of some of the macro trends in the LCK earlier today in a different post you can find here.

 

KT Rolster +175 (+1.5 maps @ -208, -1.5 @ +440)

vs

T1 -213 (-1.5 maps @ +153, +1.5 @ -769)

 

Map Moneyline: KT +137 / T1 -185

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -118 / under -115)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -118 / -4.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -120 / under -112)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  +169 / -232 (map), +250 / -314 (series), -147 / +110 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: T1 series moneyline and -1.5 maps

 

League Rank T1 Tale of the Tape KT League Rank
1.0 970.1 Gold Diff @ 10 min 336.9 2.0
1.0 1083.2 Gold Diff @ 15 min 161.2 4.0
1.0 778.4 Gold Diff @ 20 min 408.5 7.0
32.6 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 0.8
1.0 49.5 Gold Diff / min first 20 6.6 5.0
2.0 132.4 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -39.3 7.0
2.0 1802.1 Gold /min (GPM) 1768.9 6.0
38.4 Gold / min vs Avg 5.2
2.0 74.9 Gold Diff / min 7.6 6.0
2.0 1.1 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.1 6.0
1.0 1643.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1600.3 7.0
2.0 45.1 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -1.2 6.0
7.0 1905.8 GPM in wins 1932.5 3.0
3.0 317.1 Gold Diff per min in wins 311.6 5.0
1.0 1689.0 GPM in losses 1592.6 6.0
1.0 -189.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -319.9 6.0
74.8 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 7.5
7.0 -6.1 Win-Adjusted GPM 20.6 3.0
3.0 12.2 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 6.8 5.0
7.0 48.7 Dragon Control % 46.3 8.0
7.0 47.7 Herald Control % 48.1 6.0
3.0 58.8 Baron Control % 58.1 4.0
6.0 Quality Wins? 10.0
50.0 % of wins as Quality 71.4

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 43.983%
2 1 29.627%
1 2 15.046%
0 2 11.343%
(Series Win): 73.611%

 

“The Telecom War” is often a very fun matchup and over the past two decades in Korean esports these two organizations have always battled each other. It’s like the Eagles vs Cowboys or Yankees vs Red Sox or Flyers vs Penguins of esports. It’s not always the case as KT were pretty weak for a long time in recent years but generally speaking these two teams “get up” for this matchup. I don’t think that’ll be any different this time around with both teams in the middle of the competitive overall LCK standings.

I talked a lot about it in the LCK Macro Trends breakdown but T1 are prime candidates for positive regression to me. They’re doing so many of the small things right but they’re just struggling to clean up their objective setup and with a bunch of experienced veterans on this team I just can’t see that continuing to be a problem. As you can see in the Tale of the Tape above, they’re performing extremely well they just need to clean up their objective game. Individually they’ve been outstanding regardless of the lineup.

I think KT will keep this interesting but I’m going to be on the favorites here.

My Picks:

Moneyline: T1 -213 (4.26 units)

Map Spread: T1 -1.5 maps @ +153 (1 unit)

 


 

DAMWON Kia Gaming -244 (-1.5 maps @ +131, +1.5 @ -1000)

vs

Nongshim RedForce +197 (+1.5 maps @ -175, -1.5 @ +512)

 

Map Moneyline: DWG -217 / NS +159

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -118 / under -114)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -118 / +5.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -143 / under +105)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  -170 / +127 (map), -197 / +162 (series), +157 / -213 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: Nongshim series moneyline (light)

 

League Rank DWG Tale of the Tape NS League Rank
5.0 -99.8 Gold Diff @ 10 min -113.5 6.0
6.0 -229.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min -290.8 8.0
4.0 -817.4 Gold Diff @ 20 min 106.1 5.0
-10.6 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -8.4
6.0 -7.5 Gold Diff / min first 20 -17.6 7.0
4.0 66.2 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 117.1 3.0
3.0 1799.6 Gold /min (GPM) 1772.1 4.0
36.0 Gold / min vs Avg 8.5
3.0 66.2 Gold Diff / min 34.1 4.0
3.0 0.9 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.5 5.0
4.0 1617.7 Kill Agnostic GPM 1615.2 5.0
3.0 45.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 10.7 5.0
5.0 1922.4 GPM in wins 1893.3 9.0
7.0 302.3 Gold Diff per min in wins 266.8 9.0
10.0 1554.1 GPM in losses 1578.2 8.0
10.0 -406.0 Gold Diff per min in losses -338.3 8.0
66.1 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 34.0
5.0 10.5 Win-Adjusted GPM -18.5 9.0
7.0 -2.6 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -38.0 9.0
3.0 56.6 Dragon Control % 50.4 5.0
2.0 58.7 Herald Control % 51.9 5.0
1.0 71.9 Baron Control % 51.6 5.0
8.0 Quality Wins? 5.0
50.0 % of wins as Quality 45.5

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 35.403%
2 1 28.676%
1 2 19.519%
0 2 16.403%
(Series Win): 64.079%

We’ve seen DAMWON coming back to life at least to some extent in recent matches. After shaking some of the rust off the defending world champs have rattled off six in a row with the original roster back in action and their only two game losses in the past two weeks were to… you guessed it, Nongshim in a 1-2 series loss.

I haven’t exactly been completely wow’d by this resurgence. They had a game that they won from a 4000 gold deficit at 15 minutes against Hanwha Life and just last week were completely and utterly smashed in games two and three by Nongshim. There’s still a lot of sloppy play but quite frankly this looks like a team that, after multiple years of deep international runs and very limited time off, decided to coast a bit to start the Summer and maybe ease off the practice regimen for the first time in a long time to avoid burnout. I’d actually expect DAMWON to continue to improve as they gear up for playoffs.

The other end of this is that I’m still a little skeptical on Nongshim but they’re starting to feel a little bit like a MAD Lions 2020 situation where they were overrated coming in, were actually not performing as well as their record, and then steadily improved basically making them difficult to fade or back. This Nongshim was carried off of some heroic individual performances in a lot of games this season but they’re also improving more or less across the board in performance metrics as the season goes on which suggests that this was a team that had a little bit of luck go their way but one that is now actually pretty good.

This is more of a gut handicap but I think DAMWON are going to completely smash this match. The only thing that worries me is that the bottom lane for DAMWON against Deokdam and Kellin could be an issue. To me DAMWON have been playing the worst that they’ve played essentially in the franchises’ history but with the caliber of players we have here I simply don’t see that being the case for much longer and with a few wins under their belts again the confidence should come with it. Even during this “bad” season, they’re outperforming Nongshim in just about every measure. Sure it’s not the old DAMWON but if we get any shades of that then I like this even more.

My Picks:

Moneyline: DAMWON -244 (2.44 units)

Map Spread: DAMWON -1.5 maps @ +131 (0.5 units)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and you can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

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