Wednesday, February 24th Recap

 

Team WE vs eStar (Net: +4.09 units)

Oh eStar… what are we going to do with you…

Game one looked closer than it actually was before WE picked up an ace on a fight that probably should have never happened on the bottom side of mid lane and the rest was history.

Game two, there was weird situation in the bottom lane where H4cker went for a gank after ShiauC connected on a Morgana binding. Beishang was right next to this doing dragon, unbeknownst to eStar. They take the 3v2 bottom and score first blood. Breathe teleports, Zs matches him, Breathe backs off immediately after landing. At this point, Beishang finishes the dragon and eStar for some reason decide to stay even after they got the wave to the tower which allowed Shanks to roam down and WE to score some kills on the 4v4. Irma had teleported mid and Shanks had been off the map.

You have to back off here. When you see Beishang took the dragon, the wave was already going to get to tower and reset, that was your first opportunity to reset. The second was on the teleport retreat, the third was on Shanks missing from mid. I understand you want to make sure you get something out of your teleport but if it’s not there you can’t force it. They essentially lost the game on this play. Eventually Team WE would try to throw this back with a few really boneheaded decisions in the mid game to allow eStar to have a punchers chance but this game should have been over on that bot lane debacle.

This was a fairly poor showing in game two from WE and they still managed to win it. I don’t know if that speaks to their quality or the lack thereof on the side of eStar but this was a 2-0 as many expected. eStar are a bad team straight up. ShiauC is by far their best player and there’s only so much a support can do. He basically forces himself to overplay every game but at no point has anyone else really delivered much with any kind of consistency. Get this guy on a good team already, this is just sad.

WE remain one of the better teams in the league. They’re usually smarter than this but I think maybe they took the foot off the gas a little here. You could tell they spent a lot more time preparing for their match earlier this week during the break. eStar… like I said at the top, “what are we going to do with you?” I think they’re legitimately one of the worst teams in the league. Maybe they’re not quite as bad as LGD, OMG, or Rogue Warriors (although we’ll see) because ShiauC can hard carry games but to win with any kind of consistency is going to be a tall ask for this group.

 

TT Gaming vs RareAtom (Net:+1.04 units)

If you strictly look at their map movement and clarity of intent, TT have one of the best early games in the league. They simply can’t finish a game to save their lives. They’re like a baseball team with sneaky good starting pitching and the worst bullpen in the league. It’s 100% decision making. We went over yesterday just how much they rely on early leads to have even a chance of winning games but if they’re continuing to get that then maybe we need to upgrade TT to potential sneaky underdogs. Regardless we’re going to make a lot of money off of this team if they keep pricing herald props like this.

RareAtom didn’t fare so well in this contest and quite frankly, if it wasn’t for TT being themselves and punting with a lead, there is a strong case that this should have been a 2-1 win as TT had the upper hand in game three with a solid scaling composition. Still, credit to RareAtom for finding their outs. Leyan had a clutch baron steal in game three (could call it lucky) or this likely would have been a loss and an even nicer payday for us.

I’m still not upgrading TT but the fact that they so consistently jump out to leads is an angle I think we’re going to be able to attack moving forward. RareAtom weren’t terrible in this series but didn’t do themselves any favors either so I’m cautiously optimistic that this was just a rusty first match back against an opponent that had a good plan. I’m not downgrading them but this was a strange series on their side of things as I figured we’d get more of a smashing than we did.

 

LPL Net Total: +5.13 units

 

Daily Net Total: +5.13 units

 

Solid day. Would have been even better with a TT upset but we’ll never complain about green.

 

 


LOL Pro League (China)

Week 6 – Day 4

 

 

OMG +200 (+1.5 maps @ -167, -1.5 @ +487)

vs

Victory Five -250 (-1.5 maps @ +130, +1.5 @ -833)

 

Map ML Price: OMG +149 / V5 -192

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +109 / under -139)

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -114 / under -115)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -104 / -5.5 @ -125

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +164 / under -217)

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Victory Five moneyline @ -250 (moderate)

Victory Five -1.5 maps @ +130 (small edge)

 

After a rough losing streak, V5 got off the schneid with a win against eStar before the break. Prior to that they’d lost to EDG, TT, and RNG. I’ve gone over it a lot when discussing tempo-based teams but they’re just going to have losses that look really bad optically. That’s just the name of the game when you play this way, it’s fairly feast-or-famine by design it’s just a matter of consistency. V5 happen to be exceptionally good at this style though and other than a weird loss to TT (who also have a surprisingly good early game as we’ve mentioned the past two days), V5 have more or less been themselves and we should continue to expect them to be.

OMG picked up a solid surprise win over BLG in their final match before the holiday which broke a six match losing streak to open the season. OMG are a fairly intelligent team that simply lacks the horses to compete consistently. They have a fundamentally sound approach to the draft and the way they navigate a game but they’re frequently on the back foot.

I was going to stay away from this match because you had two teams “get right” before the break, and as we’ve discussed I like to give a slight bump to underperformers before the break to fix things in the two weeks. The problem I’m having in this case is that this is just way too glaring a stylistic mismatch to ignore. Victory Five may not be dominant from an economic standpoint in the early game but the tempo and pace at which they play the game is smothering even for teams that are better than they are. OMG grade out as the third worst early game team in the league in my objective/economy model. They’re a full standard deviation down from average which is about where V5 fall on the scale but again, the way they actually play, the numbers don’t quite do justice to.

I think Victory Five are going to speed run OMG. This is a situation where you want to keep an eye on the draft though. If you see OMG adjust to play for early and fight fire with fire then I like their chances a bit more (also if you see V5 try to play a more scaling look than their traditional tempo-focused drafts). I’ll be playing V5 pre-flop here but hedging out if I don’t like the way the draft looks.

NOTE: Trigger as better equipped for this metagame than Y4 is in my opinion so this doesn’t change my outlook for V5 in any way but positively.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 28.599

Time-Implied: 27.269

Underdog Win: 35.577 (OMG averaging 23 kills per win, V5 12.577 deaths per loss)

“Gelati” Total Projection: 27.146 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 52.1% (V5 57.14% / OMG 47.06%)

Volatility Rating: V5 0.27613 / OMG 0.36714 (3rd most volatile) (League Avg: 0.2985)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

V5 are averaging a 25.9 kill total in the betting markets and have gone under in 8 out of 13 scenarios as favorites. OMG are averaging 26.785 kill total in the betting market as underdogs and have gone under in 10 out of 17 scenarios. The trick with handicapping V5 game kill totals is that they are an extremely bloody team but their games are so short that there isn’t much time for extra fights to really get them over the hill. This looks like a juicy over but with short game times it’s highly volatile so I’ll pass.

 

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 29.996 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted:  30.25 / 30.04

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 42.58% (V5 38.09% / OMG 47.06%)

Volatility Rating: V5 0.14072 / OMG 0.15929 (League Avg: 0.18328)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 33:00 @ +164 (moderate)

 

The model likes the over just because of the price. Roughly 38.1% of V5 and 47.06% of OMG’s games go over this time total and the book is giving an implied price of 37.8% so you’ve got a bit of an edge there ON AVERAGE.

V5 are winning in an average of 28.66 minutes which is hilariously fast. In fact, they lose incredibly fast as well (30.17 minutes). Generally speaking, UNDERs are where you want to be in V5 games. As favorites they’ve gone under the time total in 10 out of 13 games where the average game time was 31.6 minutes in the betting markets. I’m going against the model and just passing on this.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OMG first dragon @ -109 (VERY strong edge on market)

V5 first tower @ -149 (strong edge on market)

UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -104 (moderate-strong)

V5 first herald @ -149 (moderate)

UNDER 12.5 towers taken @ -208 (moderate)

 

If you think these games play out in the identity of both of these teams then there is A LOT of potential in the derivatives for this series. If you think things are a little weird coming out of the break then just pass.

The obvious ones are OMG first dragon and V5 first tower. These essentially line up exactly with the identities of these teams. V5 are a herald gold snowball team while OMG are a scaling dragon team. I’ll be playing both of these as they provide double digit advantages on the market.

I don’t normally like to double or triple dip on props but the under 4.5 dragons and 12.5 towers are similar ways of playing the time total under which is, in this case, not a +EV play given the pricing. I think this series goes under the vast majority of the time and I’ll be playing these over the time total as a different way to attack the same game script.

All told I’ll be on OMG first drag, V5 first tower, and under 4.5 dragons.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: Victory Five -250 (2.5 units)

Map Spread: Victory Five -1.5 maps @ +130 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -104 (1.04 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -104 (1.04 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -102 (1.02 units)

Prop: Map 1 OMG first dragon @ -109 (1.09 units)

Prop: Map 2 OMG first dragon @ -109 (1.09 units)

Prop: Map 3 OMG first dragon @ -109 (1.09 units)

Prop: Map 1 V5 first tower @ -149 (1.49 units)

Prop: Map 2 V5 first tower @ -204 (1.02 units)

 (maps 2 first tower prop juiced to hell but still show a moderate edge even at -204 so playing half stake, map 3 at -222 smaller so I’ll pass there, don’t think series even gets there)

 

 


 

Rogue Warriors +697 (+1.5 maps @ +191, -1.5 @ +1012)

vs

Royal Never Give Up -1111 (-1.5 maps @ -250, +1.5 @ -3333)

 

Map ML Price: RW +405 / RNG -625

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +228 / under -312)

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -115 / under -114)

Kill Spread: +9.5 @ -112 / -9.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 17.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over +104 / under -135)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

Finally the other exciting free agent acquisition gets to join the lineup! Finally we get some stability in the bottom lane for Rogue Warriors! …. and here comes yet another support in the revolving door.

Kaixuan has been the suppor t for Rogue Warriors LDL team RW Shark. They’ve done decently so far this LDL Spring season although I’ll admit I haven’t really watched any of their games. Because he’s been playing in the LDL, I’m not entirely sure if he’s been practicing with Betty behind the scenes or if this is simply a “let’s see what we’ve got in the kid” situation. I’d expect it’s the latter. Betty provides and immediate upgrade over every ADC we’ve seen on this roster. He’s a proven veteran with a lot of experience that is coming off of one of his best seasons individually. The time off has probably disrupted his momentum but he has had since February 5th when he was moved back to “active roster.” I’m not sure if he’s been in the team house the entire time or available to practice but I’d expect maybe a little less rust than we usually see in these situations.

Normally I wouldn’t expect a move like this to make an immediate impact as they usually take time, but Rogue Warriors collective bottom lane position this season was maybe one of the worst I’ve ever seen in professional play so I’m going to go against my normal conservative outlook on substitutions and say that Betty will provide an immediate upgrade.  I don’t usually put any weight on narratives but this is a revenge spot for Betty as this was his 2020 team.

RNG are a team that I legitimately expect to improve further in the second half. That might sound a little weird given that they’re currently sitting in third place at 6-1 (13-5) but they’ve been winning with intelligent macro play, something that is sorely lacking in the LPL generally. Xiaohu has had a few “cheesy” picks to help him get by but I’d expect that the longer he plays the position the more nuanced he’s going to become and the rest of this team is absolutely stacked and playing very well. If RNG can get to be an above average early game team from an economic standpoint then the sky is the limit for them.

I wanted to take a second to highlight Wei who is the second best overall performer in my individual player model for the LPL behind Iwandy (it’s complicated but he is actually extremely good too). Wei was #1 last season as well. I’ve been saying it for awhile but he’s legitimately one of the best players in the world and doesn’t get the credit he deserves. With the jungle 11.4 jungle changes looming, it’s going to be interesting to see if there is a pivot in the metagame and if there is, whether Wei can continue to perform at the ridiculous level he’s maintained for the past 12+ months.

My model made this right on market price (-1283 / +768 with vig added back in). As you know I like to give a bump to the teams that struggled before the break, and an extra one here as Betty joining should provide an immediate upgrade as well as a veteran voice. That would suggest a small play on the dogs here but I also expect RNG to be even better coming out of the break. I think these effects cancel out so I’m going to pass. Accurate price on this match.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 26.163

Time-Implied: 27.687

Underdog Win: 30.275

“Gelati” Total Projection: 26.955 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 48.69% (RNG 44.44% / RW 52.94%)

Volatility Rating: RNG 0.33025 / RW 0.33861 (League Avg: 0.2982)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 26.5 kills (very small edge)

 

I’m curious about how the Rogue Warriors will look now with Betty in the lineup. The model didn’t suggest any plays on this despite the high total projections but I would have been skeptical to play any of them anyway because I’m curious about how RW will look now.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 30.988 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 31.43 / 31.44

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total:  59.97% (RNG 61.11% / RW 58.82%)

Volatility Rating: RNG 0.17021 / RW 0.15333 (League Avg: 0.15545)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 31:00 @ +104 (strong edge)

 

It seems like this could be a complete steamrolling by RNG, especially if they improve, but so far this season they’ve somewhat struggled early in games and had to “out macro” their opponents to win games. Typically they do this with a more slow-and-steady approach. Rogue Warriors have been losing very quickly with an average loss time of 28.247 minutes. Figure we get a little rust out from both of these teams, maybe a bump from Betty, maybe RNG still doing many of the same things and as we’ll discuss in a moment, RW being a herald centric team, it actually does make some sense to take the plus money over short number. We’ll trust the model here.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Rogue Warriors first herald @ +122 (very strong edge)

UNDER 12.5 towers taken @ -286 (moderate-strong)

Rogue Warriors first tower @ +177 (moderate)

 

This makes a lot of sense given the identity of these teams. I’ll be playing under 12.5 towers half stake even though it somewhat goes against the over 31:00 play, there’s not as strong a correlation as you’d think. I’ll also be taking RW first herald.

 

My Picks:

 

Time Total: Map 1 OVER 31:00 @ +113 (1 unit)

Time Total: Map 2 OVER 31:00 @ +110 (1 unit)

Time Total: Map 3 OVER 31:00 @ +110 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 Rogue Warriors first herald @ +122 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 Rogue Warriors first herald @ +122 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 3 Rogue Warriors first herald @ +122 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -286 (1.43 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -294 (1.47 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -278 (1.39 units)

 


 

LOL Champions Korea (LCK)

Week 6 – Day 1

 

Nongshim RedForce +235 (+1.5 maps @ -145, -1.5 @ +594)

vs

T1 -294 (-1.5 maps @ +113, +1.5 @ -1111)

 

Map ML Price: NS +174 / T1 -227

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +119 / under -154)

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -120 / -6.5 @ -109

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +109 / under -143)

 

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

T1 -1.5 maps @ +113 (strong edge, double digit)

T1 moneyline @ -294 (strong edge, double digit)

T1 map moneylines (moderate-strong)

UNDER 2.5 maps played (moderate)

 

You know, for how tumultuous all the lineup changes have been and with a lot of highs and lows, T1 have been a good team overall. In my economy/objective model they grade out as the #3 team in the LCK right now slightly ahead of Hanwha (economy for Hanwha isn’t as good as you think), and still quite far behind DAMWON and Gen.G. Outside of below average scores in overall objective control they’re a surprisingly good team. They are the second rated early game economy, third in gold differential per minute, fourth in kill agnostic gold per minute. When they win, they’re absolutely smashing. When they lose, it’s frequently because of some boneheaded decision making.

For as frustrating as T1 have been for fantasy owners and bettors alike to handicap, this is a good team that I’d actually expect to perform very well to close out the season regardless of the lineup. They’re going to lose games here and there with a lot of the young kids learning the ropes but the talent level overall on this roster, even on the bench, is absolutely absurd and I have a hard time picking all but the very best teams over them on any given day.

Nongshim have been quite the opposite, a colossal disappointment. They’re currently occupying the bottom-dwellers tier with Brion in my objective/economy model and the individual player model isn’t doing them many favors either. They’re not above average at anything. In fact, they’re significantly below average in just about every metric except, weirdly, kill agnostic gold differential per minute which is basically because they’re not really giving much up when they do lose out on the map which is I guess a good thing and a sign for potential growth. Even then, I’m grasping at straws here.

I have to think Nongshim can be better than they’ve been but I’m struggling to justify that. Bay is a liability in almost every single game and we’re in a control mage metagame right now where it’s easier to hide mid lane deficiencies. Rich and Peanut have been doing their jobs despite Bay’s lack of presence. Deokdam and Kellin haven’t been as bad as their numbers show but they’ve made a lot of critical errors as well. Simply put this team just isn’t doing anything particularly well right now.

No matter what you think of the revolving door of T1’s roster, they’re ultimately a pretty good team despite the volatility. I’m honestly shocked we’re getting this price. I’ll be taking T1 moneyline regardless and the -1.5 for a full stake if Faker is in the lineup over Clozer. I’d guess we get to see Clozer here though. He’s utterly smashed some of the weaker mid laners over his first six months in the LCK and Bay could be one that they target with aggressive counterpicks like Irelia.

 

 

 

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 28.035 kills

Time-Implied: 25.475 kills

Underdog Win: 23.993 kills

“Gelati” Total Projection: 26.311 kills 

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 41.29% (T1 41.67% / NS 40.91%)

Volatility Rating: T1 0.35659 / NS 0.36638 (League Avg: 0.3263)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

 (alt) UNDER 21.5 kills @ +129 (moderate-strong)

(alt) UNDER 22.5 kills @ +104 (moderate-strong)

UNDER 23.5 kills @ -116 (moderate)

 

I’m going to continue with my UNDERS with Faker in, OVERS with Clozer in approach even though I whiffed last time out.

 

 

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 32.383 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 32.54 / 32.79

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 67.61% (T1 62.5% / NS 72.73%)

Volatility Rating: T1 0.13480 / NS 0.17443 (League Avg: 0.15017)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 33:00 @ +109 (VERY strong edge)

 

While I think this is very likely to be a T1 smashfest it’s pretty hard to ignore these numbers. I don’t like it quite as much as the model does but I’ll be playing this over.

 

 

 

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Nongshim first dragon @ +118 (strong edge)

T1 first tower @ -161 (strong)

T1 first blood @ -135 (moderate)

UNDER 11.5 towers @ +111 (negligible edge)

 

The first dragon play is mostly just that it’s a good price with both teams holding the same first dragon %. First tower is the “safer” play here given that NS are not a first herald/tower team. T1 haven’t had particularly great first herald rate. They prefer to grind you to a pulp laning and win a skirmish somewhere. I’m going to take a half stake on both here. I don’t like either as much as the model does given how these teams play.

(Note: T1 first tower on maps 2 and 3 is way more juiced and in line with what the price should be, I’ll just take map 1, same with Nongshim first drag for map 3 which is minus odds, just maps 1 and 2 there)

 

 

My Picks:

 

REGARDLESS OF LINEUP:

Moneyline: T1 -294 (2.94 units)

Prop: Map 1 T1 first tower @ -161 (0.805 units)

Prop: Map 1 NS first dragon @ +118 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 NS first dragon @ +118 (0.5 units)

 

 

IF FAKER PLAYS:

Map Spread: T1 -1.5 maps @ +113 (1 unit)

Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 23.5 @ -116 (1.16 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 23.5 @ -116 (1.16 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 UNDER 23.5 @ -116 (1.16 units)

 

IF CLOZER PLAYS:

Map Spread: T1 -1.5 maps @ +113 (0.5 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 23.5 @ -112 (1.12 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 23.5 @ -112 (1.12 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 OVER 23.5 @ -112 (1.12 units)

 

 


DAMWON Kia Gaming -1429 (-1.5 maps @ -303)

vs

Liiv Sandbox +787 (+1.5 maps @ +226, -1.5 @ +1400)

 

Map ML Price: DWG -769 / LSB +479

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +253 / under -345)

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -116 / under -112)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -120 / +8.5 @ -109

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 7.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -149 / under +114)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Spread: LSB +1.5 maps @ +226 (VERY VERY strong edge)

Map Moneyline: LSB +479 (very strong)

Total Maps: OVER 2.5 @ +253 (very strong)

Moneyline: LSB +787 (very strong)

 

So before we go dumping a chunk of bankroll on Sandbox let’s see why the model is seeing it this way.

Before diving deep on Sandbox I’ll just say that DAMWON’s numbers have been better than their performance in the win/loss column which is actually impressive given their record. It’s not quite to last year’s level yet but I could see this team ramping up a bit more in the second half.

Sandbox actually hold the fourth best early game economy rating in the league in large part due to their third ranked gold differential at 20 minutes and fourth ranked gold differential at 15 minutes. They’re above average in overall objective control as well. They’re the worst baron control team in the league but make up for it with the best herald control and above average dragon control.

By most measures, Sandbox are a good team… except for the win column. So what gives? Well, simply put, this team is really stupid sometimes. Sure they’ve had a few situations that were just straight up bad luck but overall, Sandbox usually make one game ending mistake regardless of what’s going on in the game. Model expectation for Sandbox is about a 50% win rate overall. They should be a .500 team and they’re in last place at 2-8 (6-16) in game score. Does this remind anybody of a certain NFL team from LA (and formerly San Diego)? It sure does to me.

The model loves this play and I’m going to be taking a very small position on Sandbox because I do think they’re talented enough to steal a game but this definitely qualifies as a hold your nose play. DAMWON punish shaky decision making better than any team in the world, even still, and considering that’s exactly HOW Sandbox have been losing games I’m skeptical. Close your eyes and just play Sandbox or pass this altogether.

Regarding the derivative markets for this match. It largely depends on your handicap. If you think this is just a stone cold DAMWON blowout in sub-50 minutes then there’s really not a lot of value on the board. If you think Sandbox can slay the giant even for a game you’re going to get blown out on your prop bets and others because if they do win it’ll likely not be the way you’ve bet it. For that reason, I’ll be light on this match.

 

 

 

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 27.736

Time-Implied: 26.935

Underdog Win: 27.938

“Gelati” Total Projection: 27.349 kills 

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 62.46% (DWG 54.54% / LSB 70.37%)

Volatility Rating: DWG 0.36212 / LSB 0.30259 (League Avg: 0.3263)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Sandbox Team Total OVER 7.5 kills @ -101 (VERY VERY strong edge 30+% on market)

OVER 22.5 kills @ -141 (very strong)

OVER 23.5 @ -116 (moderate-strong)

OVER 24.5 @ +101 (moderate-light)

 

In 7 out of their 16 wins, DAMWON have died more than 7.5 times. DAMWON are averaging 9.56 deaths per win but it’s very volatile either a lot of very little and only a few instances of around their average.

Sandbox, however, are averaging A LOT of deaths in losses (17.07 is a ridiculous number). Part of this has to do with the fact that they’re ahead in a lot of games and lose multiple fights en route to an eventual loss. Against DAMWON the first time they died 21 and 17 times. They’re also scoring more kills than almost every team in losses as well with over 10.196 kills per loss (composite, blended past 8 and full season).

New DAMWON are significantly less bloody and I could very easily seeing them just smash this but I will be playing the over, the numbers are just too hard to ignore on this one especially given how this match went the last time out.

The Sandbox team total is the largest edge I’ve seen in the past few weeks. They’ve only had 5 of their games land under that with most going well over. Now whether or not you think that’s a sustainable thing or not is up to you but I do think that’s a great way to play the underdogs here if you like them more than I do. I’ll be passing. I could very easily see these games being lopsided stompings 20-5 sort of scorelines and much prefer the game total over to this despite the massive advantage which I think is somewhat skewed because of how Sandbox have lost a majority of their games.

 

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 33.888

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 33.86 / 34.03

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 81.23% (DWG 77.27% / LSB 85.185%)

Volatility Rating: DWG 0.19945 / LSB 0.09461 (League Avg: 0.15017)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 31:00 @ -149 (VERY strong edge)

 

This went to 35 and 34 minutes last time out and DAMWON have been going significantly longer than last year’s version with the new coaching staff.  DAMWON have had a few blazing fast wins but not nearly as many as last season and MOST of their games have gone well over their total. 14 out of 24 games have gone over an average time total of 31.4 minutes in the betting markets. Sandbox are averaging 34.788 minutes per loss, again primarily due to being ahead and then losing which causes longer games.

Even you think this is just a steamrolling by DAMWON then this over is still a consideration given how they’ve played this season.

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Sandbox first herald @ +188 (VERY VERY strong edge +40% on market price)

Sandbox first dragon @ +147 (VERY strong)

Sandbox first tower @ +177 (VERY strong)

OVER 11.5 towers @ +101 (VERY strong)

OVER 4.5 dragons @ +119 (strong)

OVER 12.5 towers @ +168 (moderate)

 

One of my favorite things in the world is prop markets in series with gigantic underdogs. We usually get outstanding pricing. I’m not going to quintuple dip on Sandbox in this match because DAMWON are a formidable first objective team with 59% first tower, 50% first dragon, and 68.1% first herald. The tower props are interesting but the price is inflated because of a few of the slower paced, back-and-forth games DAMWON have played this season. It’s still a strong bet just not quite as much as the model thinks.

 

IN SUMMARY:

There’s a lot going on in this seires. Instead of going full weight on all of these things and spreading out it’s best to pick and choose the best options.

IF you think this is a slightly more competitive series, and goes the way of a slower paced DAMWON 2-0 then the over tower props, over time total, and likely Sandbox first props are the way to go.

IF you think this is a series where Sandbox can actually get leads in a game or two then just about everything is a great play because they’ll VERY LIKELY lose it.

My bet is that we’ll see Sandbox jump out to a lead and lose in one of these games and likely get stomped in the other. I’m going to stick to just the premium edge plays that fit that narrative here besides the Sandbox Team Total since I’ll be playing the regular over even with a mathematically lesser edge. It just seems more logical to me especially because DAMWON have a handful of 18-5, 17-7 type wins. I’m going to pass on the time total over here as well just because I do think this will likely be one weird game and one stomping.

 

My Picks:

 

Map Spread: Sandbox +1.5 maps @ +226 (0.5 units)

Moneyline: Sandbox +787 (0.25 units)

Map Spread: Sandbox -1.5 maps @ +1400 (0.1 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 22.5 kills @ -141 (1.41 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 22.5 kills @ -141 (1.41 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 OVER 22.5 kills @ -141 (1.41 units)

Prop: Map 1 Sandbox first herald @ +188 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 Sandbox first herald @ +188 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 3 Sandbox first herald @ +188 (1 unit)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

Leave a Reply