Wednesday, August 4th Recap

 

Suning Gaming vs ThunderTalk (TT) Gaming (Net: +2.44 units)

Victory Five vs FunPlus Phoenix (Net: -0.63 units)

 

LPL Net Total: +1.81 units

 

Daily Net Total: +1.81 units

 

Spot got blown up a bit by FPX not closing quicker in game two which mean our under 4.5 dragons whiffed for -2.63. Would have been a nice day but still in the green we’ll take it.

 

 


LPL Summer 2021

Week Nine – Day Four

 

UPDATE: As of right now (2:55pm EST) LNG vs EDG is off the board almost everywhere. Check back here closer to game time and I’ll see what I can scrape up in terms of a quick writeup.

Starters are:

LNG – Ale, Tarzan, Icon, Light, Iwandy

EDG – Flandre, Jiejie, Scout, Viper, Meiko

 

I’m going to be getting ahead on Thursday’s matches since we may have to record The Gold Card Podcast on Wednesday afternoon for a change. I’ll add lineups to this post once we know them but I’m not expecting anything wild.

A quick note, these numbers do not include TT’s match on Wednesday morning since I’m writing this Tuesday evening. There likely won’t be any major changes. If TT upset then expect this line to go the opposite way but more on that below.

 

ThunderTalk (TT) Gaming +111 (+1.5 maps @ -263, -1.5 @ +293)

vs

UltraPrime -147 (-1.5 maps @ +188, +1.5 @ -435)

 

Map Moneyline: TT +105 / UP -139

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -122 / under -110)

Kill Spread: +2.5 @ -118 / -2.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over +106 / under -145)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -118 / -112 (map), -119 / -111 (series), -355 / +243 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play:  TT series moneyline (light)

Starters:

TT – Xiao7, Xiaopeng, Ye, SamD, Pudding

UP – Zs, H4cker, Xiaocaobao, Smlz, ShiauC

Trends
UP as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) TT as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 2 0 -247 Matches as Underdogs 1 11 +614
Against Map Spread 1 1 +136 Against Map Spread 3 9 +110
Against Kill Spread 4 1 6.0 Against Kill Spread 11 15 +9
Kill Totals 1 4 26.50 Kill Totals 11 15 25.75
Team Kill Totals 4 1 15.00 Team Kill Totals 12 14 8.58
Game Time Totals 4 1 30.5 Game Time Totals 14 12 29.75
Dragons over 4.5 4 1 Dragons over 4.5 12 14
Towers over 11.5 2 3 Towers over 11.5 14 12

 

 

League Rank UP Tale of the Tape TT League Rank
15 -772.2 Gold Diff @ 10 min -243.3 11
15 -1331.9 Gold Diff @ 15 min -835.3 12
12 -2375.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -337.5 16
-5.9 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -73.8
11 -73.2 Gold Diff / min first 20 -131.6 15
16 -135.8 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -171.7 17
14 1728.2 Gold /min (GPM) 1656.4 16
-61.5 Gold / min vs Avg -133.2
14 -163.2 Gold Diff / min -262.7 16
14 -2.2 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -3.6 16
12 1572.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1520.0 16
14 -78.3 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -155.0 16
9 1950.8 GPM in wins 1862.4 17
12 312.6 Gold Diff per min in wins 216.8 16
9 1630.2 GPM in losses 1600.2 13
13 -372.5 Gold Diff per min in losses -393.5 15
-158.6 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -258.1
9 2.0 Win-Adjusted GPM -86.5 17
12 -7.5 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -103.3 16
12 47.7 Dragon Control % 41.9 15
16 33.3 Herald Control % 46.3 12
14 38.3 Baron Control % 30.3 16
5.0 Quality Wins? #N/A
45.5 % of wins as Quality #N/A

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
0 2 25.580%
1 2 25.285%
2 1 24.708%
2 0 24.426%
(Series Win): 49.135%

 

I think both of these teams are quite bad albeit not to the legendarily bad level of Victory Five. I much prefer the way that ThunderTalk play the game they just falter in the mid game transition seemingly every single game. UltraPrime aren’t exactly a stellar defensive or scaling team either though so I think ThunderTalk should be able to get advantages here.

My instinct is to back the underdogs here. ThunderTalk are pretty good at jumping out to leads on people while UltraPrime are one of the worst early game teams in the league. It’s not really enough to move the needle for me though so I’ll be passing on sides and instead opting to buy into that TT early game angle. TT first blood and first herald are both advantaged plays with a sizeable edge on the market price. I personally prefer first herald in this instance. 60.7% to UP’s 30.56% it’s worth eating the juice for.

My Picks:

Prop: Map 1 TT first herald @ -120 (1.2 units)

Prop: Map 2 TT first herald @ -120 (1.2 units)

 


 

Invictus Gaming +161 (+1.5 maps @ -189, -1.5 @ +401)

vs

RareAtom -222 (-1.5 maps @ +140, +1.5 @ -667)

 

Map Moneyline: IG +138 / RA -185

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -125 / under -109)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -115 / -5.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -118 / under -115)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -101 / -131 (map), +105 / -141 (series), -303 / +213 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play:  Invictus series moneyline, +1.5 maps, and -1.5 maps

Starters:

IG – TheShy, XUN, Rookie, Wink, Lucas

RA – Cube, Leyan, FoFo, iBoy, Hang

Trends
RA as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) IG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 6 2 -871 Matches as Underdogs 3 6 +192
Against Map Spread 4 4 -118 Against Map Spread 3 6 -163
Against Kill Spread 8 12 7.8 Against Kill Spread 9 10 +6
Kill Totals 9 11 25.25 Kill Totals 10 9 26.28
Team Kill Totals 8 12 16.00 Team Kill Totals 10 9 10.83
Game Time Totals 10 10 30.1 Game Time Totals 9 10 30.56
Dragons over 4.5 10 10 Dragons over 4.5 5 14
Towers over 11.5 8 12 Towers over 11.5 10 9

 

League Rank Vici Tale of the Tape Invictus League Rank
9 177.1 Gold Diff @ 10 min 354.8 6
8 424.0 Gold Diff @ 15 min -302.4 10
9 58.1 Gold Diff @ 20 min 350.0 10
21.3 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 7.4
7 64.1 Gold Diff / min first 20 -15.3 9
11 278.2 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 385.8 7
9 1802.4 Gold /min (GPM) 1798.4 10
12.8 Gold / min vs Avg 8.7
9 56.5 Gold Diff / min -22.7 11
9 0.8 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.3 11
7 1626.5 Kill Agnostic GPM 1610.1 9
7 44.2 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 0.9 10
12 1930.0 GPM in wins 1992.4 3
11 313.9 Gold Diff per min in wins 338.8 7
12 1606.8 GPM in losses 1661.4 4
12 -338.2 Gold Diff per min in losses -277.9 3
61.1 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -18.1
12 -18.9 Win-Adjusted GPM 43.5 3
11 -6.3 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 18.6 7
3 57.8 Dragon Control % 55.6 5
4 60.0 Herald Control % 60.3 3
9 52.2 Baron Control % 55.3 8
13.0 Quality Wins? 3.0
56.5 % of wins as Quality 25.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 28.368%
2 1 26.518%
1 2 23.270%
0 2 21.844%
(Series Win): 54.886%

 

Keep in mind we could see weird starters here with IG eliminated but I’ll update tomorrow.

Let me just say, for the record, that this is EXACTLY the kind of series Invictus wins…

Anyway, Rookie will be missing playoffs for the first time in his LPL career (if I’m remembering correctly) which is honestly sad especially given what I thought this team could be capable of but the fact of the matter is that Invictus shot themselves in the foot on way too many occasions and that’s why they ended up where they are. It’s a damn shame but it is what it is.

The reason I bring this up isn’t just to reminisce about the “good old days” but to point out that it’s going to be very difficult to tell how motivated or up for this match Invictus or RareAtom will be. RareAtom are in a pretty good position to give themselves a chance to earn two byes with a win. RareAtom and WE have the same game differential and RareAtom hold the head-to-head victory so basically whoever breaks that game differential is going to get the bye. There’s an outside chance that this gets thrown for a loop if RNG were to lose to BiliBili later this week and WE also beat TOP Esports which would put RareAtom and WE in the #3 and #4 seeds.

Sometimes the pressure being off lets a team loosen up and play better and I think that could actually be the case for Invictus here so I wouldn’t rule out a weird upset in this spot but it’s really tough to want to back a team going through such an emotional defeat missing playoffs for the first time in many years especially with a motivated RareAtom on the other side of the rift.

I’m staying away from this one completely. It’s just too difficult to tell how these teams are going to treat this match. I’d expect RareAtom to take care of business but if you wanted to bet this more straight up and ignore the narratives Invictus is probably the play. If I absolutely had to make a play it’d be under 4.5 dragons which was the biggest edge on the market price on this match card but again, tough to tell how these teams are going to treat this one.

 

My Picks:

no wagers

 


LCK Summer 2021

Week Nine – Day One

 

Below are the model’s power ratings through eight weeks as well as the current standings.

LCK After Week 8
Team Power # Rank
DWG 0.8401324442 1
T1 0.7747590773 2
GEG 0.7376649746 3
NS 0.3691493329 4
LSB 0.2306486332 5
AF 0.1585235244 6
HLE -0.1832228084 7
KT -0.6250794405 8
BRO -0.7771319486 9
DRX -1.525443789 10

 

Team Series Games Str
1 ⁠⁠Nongshim RedForce 11 – 4 73% 25 – 15 63% +10 1W
2 ⁠⁠Gen.G 10 – 4 71% 22 – 14 61% +8 1W
3 ⁠⁠Liiv SANDBOX 9 – 5 64% 21 – 16 57% +5 4W
4 ⁠⁠DWG KIA 9 – 6 60% 23 – 14 62% +9 1W
5 ⁠⁠T1 9 – 6 60% 21 – 16 57% +5 1W
6 ⁠⁠Afreeca Freecs 8 – 7 53% 19 – 20 49% -1 1L
7 ⁠⁠Hanwha Life Esports 6 – 9 40% 15 – 22 41% -7 1L
8 ⁠⁠Fredit BRION 5 – 10 33% 18 – 22 45% -4 3L
9 ⁠⁠KT Rolster 5 – 10 33% 16 – 21 43% -5 2L
10 ⁠⁠DRX 2 – 13 13% 8 – 28 22% -20 1W

(standings from Leaguepedia.com)

 

Nongshim remain the biggest outlier while DAMWON have finally recaptured their Spring throne after eight weeks. T1 and Gen.G treading water, Hanwha Life improving but not by much.

Currently Nonghsim, Gen.G, and DAMWON have clinched playoffs but there is still a battle for seeding with three matches remaining for each team. DRX are the only team eliminated buy Brion and KT Rolster are done with one more loss.


 

 

DAMWON Kia Gaming -345 (-1.5 maps @ -112, +1.5 @ -1667)

vs

Fredit Brion +274 (+1.5 maps @ -119, -1.5 @ +674)

 

Map Moneyline: DWG -312 / BRO +220

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -111 / under -120)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -128 / +6.5 @ -106

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -118 / under -114)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -469 / +308 (map), -976 / +638 (series), -193 / +142 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play:  DAMWON series moneyline and -1.5 maps (strong)

Trends
DWG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) BRO as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 8 6 -626 Matches as Underdogs 4 9 +251
Against Map Spread 6 8 -43 Against Map Spread 11 2 -115
Against Kill Spread 15 20 6.6 Against Kill Spread 19 15 +6
Kill Totals 21 14 23.57 Kill Totals 11 23 22.73
Team Kill Totals 20 15 14.57 Team Kill Totals 18 16 8.65
Game Time Totals 22 13 31.3 Game Time Totals 17 17 32.46
Dragons over 4.5 14 21 Dragons over 4.5 21 13
Towers over 11.5 19 16 Towers over 11.5 13 21

 

 

League Rank DWG Tale of the Tape BRO League Rank
7.0 -165.1 Gold Diff @ 10 min -759.5 10.0
3.0 159.8 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1358.2 10.0
2.0 603.1 Gold Diff @ 20 min -2021.0 10.0
19.5 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -64.8
3.0 16.6 Gold Diff / min first 20 -35.7 9.0
4.0 100.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -59.5 7.0
2.0 1818.7 Gold /min (GPM) 1733.7 9.0
48.3 Gold / min vs Avg -36.7
2.0 100.3 Gold Diff / min -40.5 7.0
2.0 1.4 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.6 7.0
4.0 1627.5 Kill Agnostic GPM 1597.5 7.0
1.0 73.8 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -40.4 9.0
1.0 1951.4 GPM in wins 1924.3 6.0
1.0 351.4 Gold Diff per min in wins 289.2 6.0
8.0 1600.7 GPM in losses 1577.7 10.0
6.0 -312.4 Gold Diff per min in losses -310.3 5.0
100.5 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -40.3
1.0 32.5 Win-Adjusted GPM 5.4 6.0
1.0 52.5 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -9.8 6.0
3.0 55.5 Dragon Control % 58.7 1.0
1.0 59.7 Herald Control % 39.7 9.0
1.0 75.0 Baron Control % 37.3 9.0
14.0 Quality Wins? 9.0
60.9 % of wins as Quality 42.9

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 62.334%
2 1 26.240%
1 2 6.995%
0 2 4.430%
(Series Win): 88.574%

 

I was preaching all last week about how there isn’t this gigantic delta between the bottom teams (besides DRX) and the rest of the LCK like we see in some other leagues but the numbers continue to compress further and further and we’re at a point now where this is a really REALLY cheap price for DAMWON. There’s an outside chance we see a substitution here but I think with how tumultuous their season has been they’re just going to want to keep this momentum up going into playoffs.

Brion aren’t without ways to win this match and historically they’ve elevated against the top teams but this is such a brutal stylistic mismatch. Brion’s early games looked promising earlier in the season and have since dropped off badly and if you aren’t going to beat DAMWON early then you’re likely not going to beat them. DAMWON should be able to get early heralds and get this one off the ground rather easily.

Playing first dragon as usual with Brion but otherwise this is all DAMWON all the time.

My Picks:

Moneyline: DAMWON -345 (3.45 units)

Map Spread: DAMWON -1.5 maps @ -112 (1.12 units)

Prop: Map 1 Brion first dragon @ -111 (1.11 units)

Prop: Map 2 Brion first dragon @ -108 (1.08 units)

 


Liiv Sandbox -143 (-1.5 maps @ +189, +1.5 @ -455)

vs

Hanwha Life Esports +118 (+1.5 maps @ -263, -1.5 @ +297)

 

Map Moneyline: LSB -139 / HLE +105

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -106 / under -128)

Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -116 / +3.5 @ -115

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -111 / under -120)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -160 / +121 (map), -181 / +148 (series), +168 / -231 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play:  LSB series moneyline (light)

Trends
LSB as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) HLE as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 2 2 -251 Matches as Underdogs 1 6 +207
Against Map Spread 1 3 +100 Against Map Spread 4 3 -171
Against Kill Spread 3 7 4.3 Against Kill Spread 8 10 +5
Kill Totals 5 5 23.25 Kill Totals 8 10 24.50
Team Kill Totals 4 6 13.25 Team Kill Totals 8 10 9.93
Game Time Totals 6 4 33.0 Game Time Totals 9 9 32.43
Dragons over 4.5 6 4 Dragons over 4.5 9 9
Towers over 11.5 6 4 Towers over 11.5 9 9

 

League Rank LSB Tale of the Tape HLE League Rank
6.0 -1.5 Gold Diff @ 10 min 495.5 2.0
7.0 -247.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min 47.9 5.0
7.0 -220.6 Gold Diff @ 20 min 1056.0 3.0
19.3 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 8.1
7.0 0.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 6.9 4.0
5.0 27.6 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -188.1 8.0
5.0 1784.8 Gold /min (GPM) 1752.3 6.0
14.4 Gold / min vs Avg -18.1
5.0 -1.4 Gold Diff / min -50.3 9.0
5.0 -0.1 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.6 8.0
3.0 1629.6 Kill Agnostic GPM 1597.4 8.0
5.0 6.2 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -24.6 7.0
5.0 1926.1 GPM in wins 1929.1 4.0
7.0 263.7 Gold Diff per min in wins 346.2 2.0
9.0 1599.4 GPM in losses 1631.7 4.0
10.0 -349.4 Gold Diff per min in losses -320.6 7.0
-1.2 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -50.0
5.0 7.2 Win-Adjusted GPM 10.2 4.0
7.0 -35.2 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 47.2 2.0
4.0 54.1 Dragon Control % 41.3 9.0
3.0 57.1 Herald Control % 57.5 2.0
5.0 55.4 Baron Control % 37.8 8.0
8.0 Quality Wins? 10.0
53.3 % of wins as Quality 66.7

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 33.778%
2 1 28.293%
1 2 20.388%
0 2 17.540%
(Series Win): 62.071%

 

LSB need one more win to lock up a playoff position although they’re more than likely going to get it unless something catastrophic happens to them and others. Hanwha it’s very close to a literal “must win” game as they trail Afreeca by two match wins for the sixth and final seed. This should be a great match. High stakes for both teams.

Sandbox have been the better team this season overall but I think people are hesitating because Hanwha have been on a bit of a run of late after a brutal start to the season. My issue in this contest for Hanwha is that the Sandbox outer lanes and jungle are just so much better than their situation and FATE is a good enough mid laner to not get completely destroyed by Chovy. The top lane matchup in particular is just brutally one sided for Summit. Hanwha just have very limited win conditions.

It’s going to be up to Chovy to carry this one and while that could happen, I have a tough time saying no to this price on Sandbox. No derivatives plays here but LSB first herald was a close consideration.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Liiv Sandbox -143 (2.145 units)

Map Spread: Liiv Sandbox -1.5 maps @ +189 (0.5 units)

 

 

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and you can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

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