Wednesday, August 18th Recap

 

Nongshim RedForce vs Afreeca Freecs (Net: -7.63 units)

 

 

LCK Net Total: -7.63 units

 

Daily Net Total: -7.63 units

 

Full on donut this morning. Afreeca have to be kicking themselves for punting the 5000 gold lead they had amassed just by not being thorough or this could have been a 2-0 series heading into game three. Instead they completely fell apart in the next two.

 


LPL Summer 2021

Playoffs – Round Three – Day One

 

#4 Royal Never Give Up -278 (-1.5 maps @ -133, -2.5 @ +252, +1.5 @ -588, +2.5 @ -3333)

vs

#8 LNG Esports +223 (+1.5 maps @ +104, +2.5 @ -345, -1.5 @ +382, -2.5 @ +1001)

 

Map Totals: 3.5 maps (over -233 / under +179), 4.5 maps (over +206 / under -278)

Map Moneyline: RNG -196 / LNG +153

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -108 / under -122)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -112 / +6.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -123 / under -105)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -173 / +136 (map), -250 / +202 (series)

Model Suggested Play:  none

Starting Lineups:

RNG – Xiaohu, Wei, Cryin, GALA, Ming

LNG – Ale, Tarzan, Icon, Light, Iwandy

Trends
RNG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) LNG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 9 4 -986 Matches as Underdogs 6 3 +208
Against Map Spread 7 6 -41 Against Map Spread 9 0 -113
Against Kill Spread 18 13 7.2 Against Kill Spread 20 9 +6
Kill Totals 18 13 26.04 Kill Totals 18 11 24.72
Team Kill Totals 18 13 15.88 Team Kill Totals 21 8 10.06
Game Time Totals 13 18 30.2 Game Time Totals 20 9 30.78
Dragons over 4.5 13 18 Dragons over 4.5 14 15
Towers over 11.5 17 14 Towers over 11.5 15 14

 

 

League Rank Royal Never GU Tale of the Tape LNG League Rank
7 111.5 Gold Diff @ 10 min 27.0 8
6 344.2 Gold Diff @ 15 min -241.0 9
7 137.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min 512.5 8
54.2 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -11.5
3 57.3 Gold Diff / min first 20 0.3 12
4 401.8 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 382.3 7
3 1879.5 Gold /min (GPM) 1792.0 10
90.6 Gold / min vs Avg 3.1
3 133.3 Gold Diff / min 47.3 8
3 1.9 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.6 8
2 1661.4 Kill Agnostic GPM 1599.3 10
3 91.3 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 9.1 9
4 1992.4 GPM in wins 1931.9 11
4 368.2 Gold Diff per min in wins 309.2 10
3 1678.0 GPM in losses 1594.9 15
3 -286.2 Gold Diff per min in losses -321.9 8
143.5 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 57.4
4 41.6 Win-Adjusted GPM -18.8 11
4 47.4 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -11.6 10
9 50.3 Dragon Control % 44.0 14
4 57.7 Herald Control % 45.7 13
4 61.1 Baron Control % 50.0 12
16.0 Quality Wins? 16.0
64.0 % of wins as Quality 51.6

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

 

LNG won the head-to-head 2-0 in Summer week two.

 

Quantitative Analysis:

The long and short of the quantitative breakdown for this matchup is that no matter how I sliced or filtered this, the model made this within a couple percentage points of the market price so I would need a strong qualitative reason to back either side in this contest.

Conclusion: Right on market price through multiple filter options.

 

Qualitative Analysis:

With the quantitative approach this is right on market and pass so are there any actionable angles from the qualitative perspective? For me personally there are cases to be made for and against both sides so let’s go over a few points to consider here.

First, RNG are coming off of rest. This can have a few different interpretations. For some teams and in some situations, “coming in cold” to a series against a team that’s red hot like LNG can be more of a curse than a blessing. That said, the benefit is that RNG have now had two series worth of film to watch against two good teams in Suning and TOP ESports. It’s not like LNG rolled over OMG or some “fraudulent” teams. These were contenders. Lot to learn from that film. Nothing really stood out specifically to me but just being able to see how they’re approaching the game allows teams to plan accordingly.

Second, as I mentioned already, LNG are coming in red hot playing arguably their best LOL of the competitive season and I’m including that early 7-1 match run they went on to start the season. I think at the time they just had a better read on the metagame than most teams and nobody was putting enough respect on them to make proper adjustments. They just beat two very strong teams that easily could have been world championship qualified squads in back-to-back series and against preparation advantage. This shouldn’t be taken lightly. LNG are playing better now than they have all season so perhaps that’s a case to be made in favor of backing the dogs here.

Third, is sort of a combination of the two above. It’s going to be like climbing a mountain, it’ll get harder and harder for this LNG team as they ascend. With more and more advantages stacking in favor of their opponents and stronger opponents as they go it’s going to be extremely challenging work to actually make this full miracle run happen and easier for their opponents than the earlier ones.

So what’s the deal here… I’m torn on this series which rarely happens with me and strongly suggests that this is a stay away spot. On one hand, my instincts tell me to fade the hype, back the team with two series of film advantage and sell high. On the other, I don’t want to get in the way of this flaming boulder either.

Let’s see if there’s anything in the derivative markets. If I absolutely had to take a position in this contest it’d be LNG but I’m passing. Keep in mind that LNG are quite literally flawless against the map spread this season as underdogs at 9-0.

Conclusion: Cases for each side, ultimately subjective. No play on either side for me.

 

Derivatives and other markets:

Royal Never GU League Average LNG
Combined Kills / game 28.438 27.52 26.115
Combined Kills / min 0.872 0.90 0.802
Kills per win 18.458 18.52 17.613
Kills per loss 10.522 8.98 7.327
Deaths per win 7.56 8.43 7.52
Deaths per loss 21.93 18.58 16.36
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 10.48 10.00 10.71
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 11.57 10.18 9.27
Combined Avg Kills / game 27.276
Time-Implied Total 26.814
Book Odds Weighted 26.663
Rating Weighted 26.713
Underdog Win Projection 28.135
“Gelati” Total Projection 26.934
Volatility Rating 0.28677 0.2912 0.24260

 

Royal Never GU LNG
Average Game Time 31.55 32.52
Avg Game Time (in wins) 30.29 32.35
Avg Game Time (in losses) 33.807 32.770
Combined Avg Game Time 32.039
Book Odds Weighted 32.11
Rating Odds Weighted 32.14
Volatility Rating 0.17432 0.17297 0.22012
% of Games over Time Total 35.89744 44.03567 52.17391

 

The model favors unders given the frequencies at which these teams hit those in both kills and the time total but the largest edge here is on RNG firsts, particularly first tower and my personal favorite play of the series, RNG first blood. RNG have a 71.8% first blood rate to LNG’s 47.2% this season and at -133 that’s a very cheap price given the delta. I also like the under 4.5 dragons quite a bit. In keeping with the theme of the LPL’s lopsided games the playoffs have maintained a 60% under on the 4.5 dragons albeit a handful of those were in that WE shellacking of OMG so really this is 50/50. Not what you’d think given the “slugfests” we’ve seen so far right? I like the dragon unders in this contest especially because the model also favored the time total unders. I’ll be playing RNG first blood and the dragons under.  I also think it’s possible RNG have a strong gameplan and just crack LNG or vice versa and LNG keep running ridiculously hot which helps these unders.

My Picks:

Prop: Map 1 RNG first blood @ -133 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 RNG first blood @ -133 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 3 RNG first blood @ -133 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 4 RNG first blood @ -133 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 5 RNG first blood @ -133 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -141 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -132 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -122 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 4 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -122 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 5 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -122 (1 unit)

 

LCK Summer 2021

Playoffs – Round One – Day One

 

 

T1 -139 (-1.5 maps @ +129, -2.5 @ +357, +1.5 @ -312, +2.5 @ -1111)

vs

Liiv Sandbox +117 (+1.5 maps @ -167, +2.5 @ -526, -1.5 @ +231, -2.5 @ +600)

 

Map Totals: 3.5 maps (over -250 / under +191), 4.5 maps (over +189 / under -250)

Map Moneyline: T1 -137 / LSB +100

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -119 / under -109)

Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -114 / +3.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -154 / under +118)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -134 / +104 (map), -149 / +125 (series)

Model Suggested Play:  none

Trends
T1 as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) LSB as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 9 6 -369 Matches as Underdogs 7 4 +212
Against Map Spread 5 10 +39 Against Map Spread 9 2 -139
Against Kill Spread 13 23 5.9 Against Kill Spread 17 12 +5
Kill Totals 11 25 23.23 Kill Totals 13 16 23.59
Team Kill Totals 12 24 13.70 Team Kill Totals 18 11 9.32
Game Time Totals 17 19 32.6 Game Time Totals 12 17 32.45
Dragons over 4.5 17 19 Dragons over 4.5 12 17
Towers over 11.5 22 14 Towers over 11.5 19 10

 

League Rank T1 Tale of the Tape LSB League Rank
3.0 315.3 Gold Diff @ 10 min 232.1 4.0
1.0 1071.4 Gold Diff @ 15 min 403.1 3.0
2.0 1699.6 Gold Diff @ 20 min 427.9 4.0
57.8 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 15.2
1.0 70.5 Gold Diff / min first 20 5.7 4.0
4.0 117.9 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 3.5 5.0
2.0 1808.3 Gold /min (GPM) 1778.5 4.0
39.3 Gold / min vs Avg 9.4
3.0 73.6 Gold Diff / min -5.5 6.0
2.0 1.1 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.1 6.0
1.0 1654.2 Kill Agnostic GPM 1631.5 3.0
2.0 52.1 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 7.5 5.0
7.0 1912.7 GPM in wins 1913.8 6.0
4.0 310.0 Gold Diff per min in wins 255.8 8.0
1.0 1671.0 GPM in losses 1610.9 7.0
1.0 -237.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -329.0 10.0
73.9 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -5.2
7.0 -1.9 Win-Adjusted GPM -0.7 6.0
4.0 18.6 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -35.5 8.0
8.0 46.3 Dragon Control % 55.3 2.0
5.0 54.7 Herald Control % 55.1 3.0
4.0 52.2 Baron Control % 51.5 5.0
13.0 Quality Wins? 10.0
52.0 % of wins as Quality 58.8

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
3 1 21.825%
3 2 20.022%
2 3 16.968%
3 0 15.860%
1 3 15.673%
0 3 9.652%
(Series Win): 57.707%

 

 

Sandbox won the head-to-head 2-0 in matches with a 4-1 game score winning the first 2-0 in week two and the second 2-1 in week seven.

 

Quantitative Analysis:

This is another series that the model makes right on market more or less no matter how I slice it. T1 have been a stronger economic team, LSB have controlled objectives slightly better, mostly dragon. For all intents and purposes these teams are remarkably close. Just look at the Tale of the Tape above. T1’s biggest advantage is that they’ve been economically the most difficult team to beat but these numbers have a bit of noise as they’ve had a lot of thrown games as well.

Conclusion: A small edge to T1 that’s in line with the market price. No play.

 

Qualitative Analysis:

If you just look at these rosters top to bottom it’s difficult to argue against T1’s overall quality on the roster but we’ve been saying that all season long and even this experienced crew of veterans has been simultaneously excellent and questionable, sometimes in the game game. They’re like a slightly higher floor version of Afreeca.

The thing is, Sandbox’s top trio has been outstanding this season and T1’s, no matter the combination, has had some weird games. The bottom lane goes to T1 not to say Sandbox’s has been weak or anything I just think that Teddy/Gumayusi and Keria are just always going to be stronger.

Speaking of that… I wouldn’t rule out seeing some kind of mid series swap… hell we don’t even know if Gumayusi or Teddy is getting the start here and the same can be said for Oner and Cuzz. I’d assume we see Gumayusi + Oner based on what we’ve seen recently but keep an eye out for the lineup announcement.

This is the kind of series that’s going to make you feel like an idiot after the fact. It’s going to feel like there was an obvious side to take after the fact but I legitimately think this is right on the money for a price. Psychologically this “feels” cheap for T1 for a lot of people, that was my first instinct too but with enough uncertainty and the extra preparation time this could end up being a very close series.

I’m not going to be making a play on a side here.

Conclusion: Slight edge to T1 but they’ve also got more question marks. No discernable edge.

 

Derivatives and other markets:

T1 League Average LSB
Combined Kills / game 20.690 22.74 21.511
Combined Kills / min 0.609 0.68 0.660
Kills per win 13.211 15.93 13.618
Kills per loss 7.066 7.39 5.656
Deaths per win 6.60 7.09 7.81
Deaths per loss 14.74 16.34 17.38
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 7.72 9.10 7.04
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 6.95 9.20 11.38
Combined Avg Kills / game 21.100
Time-Implied Total 21.448
Book Odds Weighted 19.694
Rating Weighted 19.701
Underdog Win Projection 20.684
“Gelati” Total Projection 20.750
Volatility Rating 0.25462 0.2890 0.29412

 

T1 LSB
Average Game Time 34.22 33.38
Avg Game Time (in wins) 32.82 33.12
Avg Game Time (in losses) 36.061 33.693
Combined Avg Game Time 33.798
Book Odds Weighted 33.86
Rating Odds Weighted 33.87
Volatility Rating 0.23493 0.17062 0.17955
% of Games over Time Total 54.54545 57.05996 59.57447

 

Slim pickings for the derivatives as well. The strongest edge on the board is Sandbox first herald which is a shade better than the market price. The model also flagged a slight edge on OVER 1.5 barons. I’ll be taking LSB first herald as my only play in this series.

My Picks:

Prop: Map 1 LSB first herald @ -125 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 LSB first herald @ -125 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 3 LSB first herald @ -125 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 4 LSB first herald @ -125 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 5 LSB first herald @ -125 (1 unit)

 

 

 


 

 

LCS Playoffs

 

 

Cloud 9 -149 (-1.5 maps @ +140, -2.5 @ +371, +1.5 @ -333, +2.5 @ -909)

vs

Evil Geniuses +125 (+1.5 maps @ -182, +2.5 @ -556, -1.5 @ +243, -2.5 @ +531)

 

 

Map Totals: 3.5 maps (over +160 / under -208), 4.5 maps (over -312 / under +230)

Map Moneyline: C9 -137 / EG +107

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -108 / under -122)

Kill Spread: -1.5 @ -114 / +1.5 @ -115

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -125 / under -104)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +106 / -135 (map), +128 / -153 (series)

Model Suggested Play:  Evil Geniuses all ways (very strong)

Trends
C9 as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) EG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 14 11 -326 Matches as Underdogs 7 5 +93
Against Map Spread 1 1 -59 Against Map Spread 1 0 -217
Against Kill Spread 16 14 5.9 Against Kill Spread 10 6 +4
Kill Totals 10 20 24.70 Kill Totals 8 8 25.58
Team Kill Totals 15 16 14.70 Team Kill Totals 8 8 11.08
Game Time Totals 14 16 31.2 Game Time Totals 8 8 32.17
Dragons over 4.5 14 16 Dragons over 4.5 9 7
Towers over 11.5 19 11 Towers over 11.5 9 7

 

League Rank C9 Tale of the Tape EG League Rank
5 67.1 Gold Diff @ 10 min 322.0 3
7 -210.4 Gold Diff @ 15 min 430.6 3
5 -1023.3 Gold Diff @ 20 min 122.4 4
12.9 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 48.5
5 28.5 Gold Diff / min first 20 94.5 1
1 344.8 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 113.0 5
2 1871.7 Gold /min (GPM) 1890.9 1
86.5 Gold / min vs Avg 105.7
2 118.4 Gold Diff / min 113.0 3
2 1.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.6 3
2 1674.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1690.0 1
3 66.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 79.1 1
7 1608.3 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1610.9 6
1 2048.8 GPM in wins 2021.4 2
1 406.6 Gold Diff per min in wins 310.4 4
4 1647.3 GPM in losses 1660.0 2
3 -246.6 Gold Diff per min in losses -236.1 1
120.6 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 115.2
1 108.1 Win-Adjusted GPM 80.7 2
1 104.3 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 8.1 4
3 55.4 Dragon Control % 50.0 6
7 47.1 Herald Control % 58.3 3
3 56.5 Baron Control % 57.1 2
16.0 Quality Wins? 12.0
84.2 % of wins as Quality 52.2

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
3 1 27.339%
3 0 24.162%
3 2 20.622%
2 3 12.488%
1 3 10.025%
0 3 5.365%
(Series Win): 72.122%

 

 

Evil Geniuses owned the head-to-head 4-1.

 

Quantitative Analysis:

By the numbers these teams aren’t that far apart but EG do have advantages across the board. Slightly better objective control and most importantly a big edge on the more important objectives on this patch (herald > dragon). Stronger early games, slightly stronger economy, the only difference is the in wins and in losses where C9 have slight advantage in wins. This should be slight edge to EG.

 

Conclusion: Slight edge to Evil Geniuses

 

Qualitative Analysis:

We discussed this series extensively on The Gold Card Podcast this week and the long and short of it is that it’s very difficult to justify not taking an Evil Geniuses position. You could go by “feel” and name brand value or whatever and just look at price memory and think “there’s no way Cloud 9 lose right?” in much the same way we said for other series this playoffs but the fact of the matter is that EG have been a better team more or less across the board this season.

From a strategy and planning perspective I think Evil Geniuses have more advantages as well. Cloud 9 are a very linear team. You minimize the effect that Blaber and Perkz have on the game and you more often than not win that game. Do I think Jiizuke and Contractz/Svenskeren are the better mid/jungle duo? No. However, I do think when you’re as one dimensional from a macro perspective as Cloud 9 can be, that it’s significantly easier to game plan against than a team like Evil Geniuses who have not only a unique angle of attack but the ability to play you straight up as well. On paper there’s an edge to Perkz and Blaber but it’s a lot easier to work within a set framework of shutting them down than a more nebulous approach to things. I think Evil Geniuses and their coaching staff will develop a good enough game plan and won’t make the same mistakes they did in the final games of the prior series. I also hold 100 Thieves in higher regard by about half a tier over Cloud 9 and they easily could have won that series as well.

I don’t put much stock into narratives generally speaking but Zven hasn’t had great playoff performances in his career just in general and Danny is coming off of an absolutely monstrous series against 100 Thieves. Bottom lane could become a problem for the boys in blue.

Edge to EG because I think they’re a more dynamic team with a stronger overall roster even if there are mismatches in certain areas. They’re harder to prepare for and Cloud 9 are fairly linear in their approach. They’ve also been the better team all season and absolutely dominated Cloud 9 in the head-to-head.

Conclusion: Edge Evil Geniuses.

 

Derivatives and other markets:

C9 League Average EG
Combined Kills / game 22.809 24.84 27.233
Combined Kills / min 0.737 0.78 0.831
Kills per win 16.191 17.51 16.977
Kills per loss 10.08 8.74 8.65
Deaths per win 5.89 8.45 9.39
Deaths per loss 16.29 17.21 18.54
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 11.37 9.19 8.00
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 6.07 9.22 9.62
Combined Avg Kills / game 25.021
Time-Implied Total 25.403
Book Odds Weighted 25.8507
Rating Weighted 26.0488
Underdog Win Projection 27.0602
“Gelati” Total Projection 25.4908
Volatility Rating 0.35072 0.29485 0.28611

 

C9 EG
Average Game Time 31.99 32.83
Avg Game Time (in wins) 30.29 30.88
Avg Game Time (in losses) 34.14 36.28
Combined Avg Game Time 32.41
Book Odds Weighted 32.93
Rating Odds Weighted 32.86
Volatility Rating 0.17584 0.1678 0.18047
% of Games over Time Total 47.05882 48.52941 50.00000

 

The model likes kill total unders quite a bit here despite projecting a total right on the money at 25.49. The suggested play is mostly based on frequency. I could see this series playing out a number of different ways that tail toward the over so I’m going to pass on this market despite the suggestion.

Evil Geniuses first herald is my favorite play in this series besides the side. 63.89% vs 35.29% and only an implied 56.1% on the -128.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Evil Geniues +125 (3 units)

Map Spread: Evil Geniuses -1.5 maps @ +243 (1 unit)

Map Spread: Evil Geniuses -2.5 maps @ +531 (0.25 units)

Prop: Map 1 EG first herald @ -128 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 EG first herald @ -128 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 3 EG first herald @ -128 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 4 EG first herald @ -128 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 5 EG first herald @ -128 (1 unit)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and you can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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