Sunday, August 8th Recap

 

TOP Esports vs Team WE (Net: +1.61 units)

FunPlus Phoenix vs EDward Gaming (Net: +1.0 units)

 

Gen.G vs DAMWON Kia (no action)

DRX vs T1 (Net: +1.0 units)

 

Cloud 9 vs Team Liquid (Net: +4.0 units)

 

 

LPL Net Total: +2.61 units

LCK Net Total: +1.0 units

LCS Net Total: +4.0 units

 

Daily Net Total: +7.61 units

 

 


LPL Summer 2021

Playoffs – Upper Bracket – Round One

#9 Suning Gaming -278 (-1.5 maps @ -133, -2.5 @ +228, +1.5 @ -588)

vs

#8 LNG Esports +221 (+1.5 maps @ +105, +2.5 @ -312, -1.5 @ +394, -2.5 @ +850)

 

Map Totals: 3.5 maps (over -222 / under +171), 4.5 maps (over +208 / under -278)

Map Moneyline: SN -213 / LNG +164

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -122 / under -106)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -120 / +5.5 @ -108

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -152 / under +116)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -234 / +179 (map), -455 / +340 (series), -170 / +150 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play:  Suning series moneyline strongest, -1.5 light

Starters:

SN – Bin, SofM, Angel, Huanfeng, ON

LNG – Ale, Tarzan, Icon, Light, Iwandy

Trends
SN as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) LNG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 6 5 -575 Matches as Underdogs 4 3 +204
Against Map Spread 4 7 +22 Against Map Spread 7 0 -175
Against Kill Spread 13 16 6.8 Against Kill Spread 14 6 +6
Kill Totals 9 20 24.86 Kill Totals 11 9 24.79
Team Kill Totals 9 20 15.23 Team Kill Totals 13 7 9.93
Game Time Totals 15 14 30.5 Game Time Totals 13 7 30.71
Dragons over 4.5 12 17 Dragons over 4.5 9 11
Towers over 11.5 12 17 Towers over 11.5 9 11

 

League Rank Suning Tale of the Tape LNG League Rank
4 802.7 Gold Diff @ 10 min -392.6 12
1 1672.3 Gold Diff @ 15 min -909.9 14
1 2575.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1637.5 10
5.5 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -11.9
9 58.8 Gold Diff / min first 20 2.3 12
5 407.4 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 394.0 7
6 1824.2 Gold /min (GPM) 1790.9 10
32.9 Gold / min vs Avg -0.4
5 98.2 Gold Diff / min 49.4 9
5 1.4 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.7 9
5 1637.0 Kill Agnostic GPM 1598.5 11
5 51.8 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 11.2 9
8 1952.5 GPM in wins 1939.8 12
7 343.3 Gold Diff per min in wins 331.4 10
4 1653.1 GPM in losses 1594.9 15
1 -228.6 Gold Diff per min in losses -321.7 7
101.6 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 52.8
8 -0.3 Win-Adjusted GPM -13.0 12
7 16.2 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 4.3 10
8 51.0 Dragon Control % 44.0 14
12 48.2 Herald Control % 47.1 13
11 51.1 Baron Control % 49.1 12
14.0 Quality Wins? 14.0
58.3 % of wins as Quality 56.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
3 0 30.208%
3 1 29.818%
3 2 19.621%
2 3 9.621%
1 3 7.170%
0 3 3.562%
(Series Win): 79.647%

 

Quantitative Analysis:

These two teams are very evenly matched with the exception being Suning’s significantly improved early game. When you filter their performance to look at just their levels against the other nine playoff teams their Tale of the Tape is similar, bigger downgrades for Suning.

League Rank Suning Tale of the Tape LNG League Rank
4 265.6 Gold Diff @ 10 min -391.7 12
7 301.0 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1189.6 15
6 -87.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1850.0 13
-3.9 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -17.6
11 18.5 Gold Diff / min first 20 -23.5 12
9 288.9 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 318.9 7
10 1786.1 Gold /min (GPM) 1773.4 11
-1.9 Gold / min vs Avg -14.7
8 48.3 Gold Diff / min -3.0 9
8 0.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.1 9
7 1619.7 Kill Agnostic GPM 1593.1 11
8 17.7 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -11.8 10
12 1932.1 GPM in wins 1955.9 8
12 295.9 Gold Diff per min in wins 324.2 10
11 1613.6 GPM in losses 1590.8 15
2 -244.4 Gold Diff per min in losses -330.1 9
57.7 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 6.4
12 -20.5 Win-Adjusted GPM 3.3 8
12 -28.0 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 0.3 10
12 47.4 Dragon Control % 40.8 15
11 48.9 Herald Control % 44.7 13
13 46.4 Baron Control % 53.1 8
8.0 Quality Wins? 6.0
61.5 % of wins as Quality 50.0

 

The projected line doesn’t move very much in this instance either even though we see big rank changes for Suning, the overall numbers aren’t that much different.

Conclusion: Slight value on Suning series moneyline and -1.5 maps

 

Qualitative Analysis:

These two teams are remarkably similar in a lot of ways in that they don’t particularly excel at any single thing. Of late, Suning’s early games have been very good but generally over the course of the season they were just above average there. The main difference between these two is playoff and “big game” experience. Tarzan had his early in his career with Griffin in the LCK and at Worlds but the rest of these players just had their first playoff experience last season where they were the clear worst team in the field and were quickly dispatched.

Experience and keeping cool under pressure tends to get overrated by commentators and lazy analysts but it is something to keep in mind here. Suning have a history of showing up in big spots even before their deep Worlds run last year. This iteration of the roster always seems to elevate in high leverage situations.

All in all I think this market price is fairly cheap for Suning but nothing would surprise me in this series overall. These two teams are very evenly matched and until recently played a very similar style of game and typically when you get situations like that the series ends up closer than expected.

Conclusion: Suning experience advantge, early game could prove helpful. Slightly adds to Suning thesis.

 

 

Derivatives and Other Markets:

 

Suning League Average LNG
Combined Kills / game 21.275 26.76 22.744
Combined Kills / min 0.702 0.88 0.756
Kills per win 16.146 18.43 18.001
Kills per loss 7.844 8.76 5.842
Deaths per win 7.00 8.40 7.28
Deaths per loss 14.83 18.53 15.89
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 10.04 10.03 11.16
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 5.28 10.12 9.21
Combined Avg Kills / game 22.010
Time-Implied Total 23.574
Book Odds Weighted 23.367
Rating Weighted 23.257
Underdog Win Projection 25.845
“Gelati” Total Projection 22.947
Volatility Rating 0.35405 0.2920 0.24341
% of Games over total #1 57.14286 64.6179 72.09302
% of Games over total #2 47.61905 57.5305 67.44186
% of Games over total #3 38.09524 50.4430 62.79070

These are uniquely low totals numbers but these are both low total and under teams generally speaking. Light value on OVERS here but I won’t be playing any of them.

 

Suning LNG
Average Game Time 32.67 32.00
Avg Game Time (in wins) 32.38 31.59
Avg Game Time (in losses) 33.063 32.530
Combined Avg Game Time 32.333
Book Odds Weighted 32.41
Rating Odds Weighted 32.41
Volatility Rating 0.19744 0.17144 0.20640
% of Games over Time Total 52.38095 50.60908 48.83721

The model shows a small edge on the under 31:00 here that I’m actually a fan of but will be playing through a different market, the under dragons which I think is a stronger play given that teams have showed more willingness to extend pushes to tier two towers and often ignore early dragon stacking now.

No value anywhere on the board in the “first” props. Every single play is -EV.

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: Suning -278 (5.56 units)

Map Spread: Suning -1.5 maps @ -133 (1.33 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -147 (1.47 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -147 (1.47 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -147 (1.47 units)

Prop: Map 4 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -147 (1.47 units)

Prop: Map 5 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -147 (1.47 units)

 

 


LCK Summer 2021

Week Ten – Day One

 

Below are the model power ratings for the LCK through nine weeks as well as the current standings.

LCK After Week 9
Team Power # Rank
DWG 1.418568641 1
T1 0.8085784574 2
AF 0.1710722112 3
LSB 0.1059047427 4
NS 0.02189845909 5
GEG -0.01333919041 6
KT -0.3470195528 7
HLE -0.3931407842 8
BRO -0.4198605021 9
DRX -1.352662482 10

 

LCK 2021 Summer Standings
Team Series Games Str
1 ⁠⁠Liiv SANDBOX 11 – 5 69% 25 – 17 60% +8 6W
1 ⁠⁠Nongshim RedForce 11 – 5 69% 25 – 17 60% +8 1L
3 ⁠⁠DWG KIA 11 – 6 65% 27 – 14 66% +13 3W
4 ⁠⁠T1 11 – 6 65% 25 – 17 60% +8 3W
5 ⁠⁠Gen.G 10 – 6 63% 23 – 18 56% +5 2L
6 ⁠⁠Afreeca Freecs 9 – 7 56% 21 – 20 51% +1 1W
7 KT Rolster 6 – 10 38% 18 – 22 45% -4 1W
8 Hanwha Life Esports 6 – 10 38% 15 – 24 38% -9 2L
9 Fredit BRION 5 – 12 29% 19 – 26 42% -7 5L
10 DRX 2 – 15 12% 9 – 32 22% -23 2L

(standings from Leaguepedia.com)

(striked out teams are eliminated from playoffs)


So the last four days of LCK action will have a handful of “meaningless” games. Some of them are between two teams that are eliminated, others between eliminated teams and others jockeying for playoff position. Especially in the LCK, don’t put too much weight on these factors in your handicap because this league more than any other tends to play things out until the bitter end. It’s just how the teams and players carry it. That said, you should probably expect substitutions from the teams that are eliminated from playoff contention as they want to see some of their developmental prospects and decide on contracts for next year. Keep a close eye on pre-game social media for lineup announcements, especially for those braving these slates in DFS.

I’ll be fairly light on the LCK this week in general because it’s always difficult to tell how these teams will play under the circumstances. The LCK isn’t usually this locked up by now but we have literally all six playoff teams decided. Expect those teams to be playing for the best seeding.


 

Hanhwa Life Esports +151 (+1.5 maps @ -217, -1.5 @ +387)

vs

Afreeca Freecas -182 (-1.5 maps @ +159, +1.5 @ -625)

 

Map Moneyline: HLE +124 / AF -167

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -110 / under -122)

Kill Spread: +3.5 @ -112 / -3.5 @ +119

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -120 / under -111)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +135 / -182 (map), +178 / -216 (series), -197 / +146 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play:  none (very light edge on Afreeca series moneyline)

Trends
AF as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) HLE as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 1 3 -225 Matches as Underdogs 1 7 +196
Against Map Spread 0 4 +97 Against Map Spread 4 4 -183
Against Kill Spread 3 8 4.8 Against Kill Spread 8 12 +5
Kill Totals 4 7 23.25 Kill Totals 8 12 24.50
Team Kill Totals 2 9 13.25 Team Kill Totals 8 12 10.00
Game Time Totals 5 6 33.0 Game Time Totals 10 10 32.50
Dragons over 4.5 7 4 Dragons over 4.5 11 9
Towers over 11.5 5 6 Towers over 11.5 9 11

 

 

League Rank AF Tale of the Tape HLE League Rank
4.0 88.5 Gold Diff @ 10 min 157.6 3.0
3.0 136.4 Gold Diff @ 15 min 47.8 5.0
5.0 16.3 Gold Diff @ 20 min 374.8 3.0
-0.3 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 4.8
3.0 8.8 Gold Diff / min first 20 5.8 4.0
6.0 -29.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -214.9 9.0
7.0 1750.9 Gold /min (GPM) 1744.5 8.0
-18.8 Gold / min vs Avg -25.2
6.0 -4.2 Gold Diff / min -62.6 9.0
6.0 0.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.8 9.0
5.0 1610.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1593.4 8.0
6.0 -3.9 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -32.2 8.0
10.0 1870.3 GPM in wins 1929.1 4.0
7.0 261.3 Gold Diff per min in wins 346.2 2.0
4.0 1625.4 GPM in losses 1629.1 3.0
3.0 -283.0 Gold Diff per min in losses -318.1 8.0
-4.0 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -62.4
10.0 -46.2 Win-Adjusted GPM 12.6 4.0
7.0 -32.8 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 52.1 2.0
6.0 50.0 Dragon Control % 40.1 9.0
6.0 53.1 Herald Control % 59.2 1.0
7.0 44.8 Baron Control % 36.2 9.0
9.0 Quality Wins? 10.0
42.9 % of wins as Quality 66.7

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 37.162%
2 1 29.016%
1 2 18.581%
0 2 15.240%
(Series Win): 66.178%

As I mentioned at the top this is going to be a strange week in the LCK with so many weird motivational spots. Hanwha Life had their chance and were eliminated this weekend so they’re out. I’d imagine we see some more lineup shuffling to see what they have moving forward perhaps even with Chovy sitting so keep an eye out. Afreeca are going to want to keep positive momentum heading into the playoffs and are still battling for potential seeding in a very tight first through sixth race. I’d expect them to be giving this series a full effort.

In a normal situation this line would be right on the money and not worth a play but given the implications for both teams in this situation I actually like a play on Afreeca. I’m not expecting a “mail it in” performance by Hanwha by any means but I think Afreeca are the better team anyway and have more to play for in this spot than Hanwha who will inevitably be trying out some different lineup iterations which can be disruptive. If Chovy gets benched then this line should be Afreeca by a country mile. He’s such a huge part of HLE that it’s a nice icing on the cake added bonus if that does in fact happen.

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: Afreeca -182 (3.64 units)

Map Spread: Afreeca -1.5 maps @ +159 (0.5 units)

 


 

KT Rolster +209 (+1.5 maps @ -161, -1.5 @ +513)

vs

Liiv Sandbox -256 (-1.5 maps @ +122, +1.5 @ -1000)

 

Map Moneyline: KT +156 / LSB -213

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -114 / under -118)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -119 / -5.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -106 / under -128)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +125 / -167 (map), +158 / -190 (series), -218 / +162 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play:  KT series moneyline and +1.5 maps

Trends
LSB as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) KT as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 4 2 -231 Matches as Underdogs 3 7 +231
Against Map Spread 2 4 +119 Against Map Spread 6 4 -135
Against Kill Spread 5 10 4.3 Against Kill Spread 10 14 +5
Kill Totals 5 10 23.50 Kill Totals 11 13 23.70
Team Kill Totals 6 9 13.17 Team Kill Totals 11 13 9.40
Game Time Totals 8 7 33.0 Game Time Totals 9 15 32.40
Dragons over 4.5 10 5 Dragons over 4.5 8 16
Towers over 11.5 9 6 Towers over 11.5 8 16

 

League Rank LSB Tale of the Tape KT League Rank
8.0 -210.4 Gold Diff @ 10 min -85.7 6.0
9.0 -592.3 Gold Diff @ 15 min 94.0 4.0
7.0 -841.8 Gold Diff @ 20 min 63.0 4.0
9.9 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 6.6
6.0 -2.0 Gold Diff / min first 20 -10.1 8.0
5.0 65.4 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -146.5 8.0
4.0 1787.0 Gold /min (GPM) 1764.6 6.0
17.3 Gold / min vs Avg -5.0
5.0 11.4 Gold Diff / min -32.3 7.0
5.0 0.1 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.5 7.0
3.0 1631.7 Kill Agnostic GPM 1596.3 7.0
4.0 13.3 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -22.5 7.0
6.0 1913.9 GPM in wins 1950.4 1.0
8.0 255.0 Gold Diff per min in wins 319.6 4.0
9.0 1600.3 GPM in losses 1612.7 6.0
10.0 -346.8 Gold Diff per min in losses -320.2 9.0
11.6 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -32.1
6.0 -2.6 Win-Adjusted GPM 33.8 1.0
8.0 -39.0 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 25.5 4.0
3.0 55.3 Dragon Control % 48.6 7.0
3.0 55.7 Herald Control % 42.3 8.0
4.0 54.0 Baron Control % 50.0 6.0
9.0 Quality Wins? 13.0
60.0 % of wins as Quality 72.2

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 34.847%
2 1 28.553%
1 2 19.816%
0 2 16.785%
(Series Win): 63.399%

 

Sandbox looked a little shaky in week nine despite picking up wins over both Hanwha and Brion to secure a playoff berth. You want to consider that HLE and BRO were both playing for their lives as a loss would eliminate them so you want to give them a bit of a boost which makes these sketchy games a little more forgiving but you’d still rather see a playoff team taking care of business easily against these much worse teams.

Sandbox are miraculously sitting atop the table currently tied with Nongshim. What a world right? It’s not that either team is bad it’s just been such a tight race that wild swings like this happen. Point being I’d expect Sandbox to battle for a bye as they’re positioned to do so here. That said, KT have some very talented young players that are looking for starting gigs next season and they aren’t a bad team by any stretch so I’d expect them to put up a fight here.

Translation, this is a little too expensive for my taste. I like the Afreeca price much more. I also think KT are a slightly better team with a deeper roster than Hanwha who is the Chovy show. I’m staying away from sides in this one but I am going to play the game one angles that have been excellent over the second half.

 

My Picks:

Time Total: Map 1 OVER 33:00 @ -106 (1.06 units)

Kill Total (alt): Map 1 UNDER 23.5 @ +106 (1.5 units)

 


 

LCS Playoffs

Losers’ Bracket – Round One – Day Three

 

 

#7 Immortals -164 (-1.5 maps @ +122, -2.5 @ +343, +1.5 @ -333)

vs

#6 Dignitas +135 (+1.5 maps @ -156, +2.5 @ -500, -1.5 @ +247, -2.5 @ +653)

 

Map Totals: 3.5 maps (over -256 / under +195), 4.5 maps (over +187 / under -244)

Map Moneyline: IMT -149 / DIG +116

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -116 / +3.5 # -112

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -128 / under -101)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +108 / -139 (map), +133 / -161 (series), +269 / -374 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play:  Dignitas all ways (very strong)

 

Trends
IMT as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) DIG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 8 5 -153 Matches as Underdogs 7 14 +169
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 1 +175
Against Kill Spread 8 5 3.2 Against Kill Spread 12 12 +6
Kill Totals 7 6 24.58 Kill Totals 11 13 25.40
Team Kill Totals 6 7 13.12 Team Kill Totals 13 11 10.07
Game Time Totals 5 8 32.0 Game Time Totals 9 15 31.81
Dragons over 4.5 8 5 Dragons over 4.5 7 17
Towers over 11.5 8 5 Towers over 11.5 13 11

 

League Rank IMT Tale of the Tape DIG League Rank
9 -632.2 Gold Diff @ 10 min 38.4 5
9 -1184.7 Gold Diff @ 15 min -43.0 7
9 -1875.8 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1.2 7
-10.0 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -11.8
9 -64.2 Gold Diff / min first 20 -33.0 7
6 9.5 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -108.6 8
7 1759.3 Gold /min (GPM) 1745.7 8
-30.0 Gold / min vs Avg -43.6
6 -46.4 Gold Diff / min -56.7 7
6 -0.7 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.8 7
7 1584.5 Kill Agnostic GPM 1554.4 9
7 -46.9 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -61.8 8
4 1631.4 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1616.3 5
7 1911.3 GPM in wins 1930.1 5
8 255.9 Gold Diff per min in wins 318.6 5
6 1618.2 GPM in losses 1598.1 8
7 -327.1 Gold Diff per min in losses -357.0 9
-49.9 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -60.3
7 -32.6 Win-Adjusted GPM -13.7 5
8 -49.2 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 13.6 5
7 47.7 Dragon Control % 47.4 8
9 40.7 Herald Control % 50.9 5
6 47.4 Baron Control % 40.0 9
6.0 Quality Wins? 5.0
46.2 % of wins as Quality 41.7

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
1 3 22.480%
2 3 20.220%
0 3 16.662%
3 2 16.526%
3 1 15.016%
3 0 9.096%
(Series Win): 40.638%

 

Dignitas won the head-to-head 3-2.

 

Quantitative Analysis:

On paper this is a slam dunk Dignitas position and it’s not remotely close according to the model. A closer look at the more advanced and adjusted metrics shows that these are two relatively evenly matched teams in most areas with Dignitas having a much better early game albeit one I wouldn’t necessarily call “strong” in a traditional sense, it’s just not as abysmal as Immortals’.

 

Conclusion: A bit too expensive to pay for Immortals. Should be a closer to even money series. 

 

Qualitative Analysis:

Generally speaking, strong early games lead to more wins, rocket science I know, but you want to be playing from ahead and not behind. Immortals have been digging themselves into holes and playing out of it. There’s two ways to look at that. First, if they ever do clean up their early game that they could be argued to be the better team or second, it’ll be a problem in this series.

Dignitas tend to lose in spectacularly bad fashion with the second lowest gold differential in losses in the LCS so while they look bad while losing, I do think it’s easy to fall into the trap of remembering them at their worst if that makes sense.

I’m having a hard time even considering Immortals here it’s more a matter of whether or not it’s actually worth a play on Dignitas. Immortals were one of the teams I backed more than most people this season and they were profitable for me but in recent weeks Dignitas have been the better team. The biggest strength that Immortals have going into this matchup is that they got to watch a series from Dignitas against Evil Geniuses but I’m not sure how much of what EG did is easily emulated by Immortals. Still, a film advantage is an advantage worth considering.

I’m going to play the Dignitas side of this but this series is very closely matched and could go either way. It’s mostly just a play on the number.

 

Conclusion: Could go either way but number is a bit too large so backing the underdogs.

 

Derivatives and other markets:

IMT League Average DIG
Combined Kills / game 26.060 25.61 27.763
Combined Kills / min 0.826 0.80 0.949
Kills per win 17.207 17.51 19.635
Kills per loss 8.67 8.90 10.91
Deaths per win 9.15 8.50 7.17
Deaths per loss 15.86 17.32 17.27
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 8.38 9.22 12.17
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 8.29 9.19 9.29
Combined Avg Kills / game 26.911
Time-Implied Total 28.377
Book Odds Weighted 28.2034
Rating Weighted 28.2249
Underdog Win Projection 28.3095
“Gelati” Total Projection 27.8377
Volatility Rating 0.29520 0.29042 0.28212
% of Games over total #1 48.14815 51.85 55.55556
% of Games over total #2 40.74074 46.30 51.85185
% of Games over total #3 40.74074 44.44 48.14815

 

IMT DIG
Average Game Time 32.97 30.99
Avg Game Time (in wins) 33.86 30.72
Avg Game Time (in losses) 32.14 31.20
Combined Avg Game Time 31.98
Book Odds Weighted 32.05
Rating Odds Weighted 31.92
Volatility Rating 0.17156 0.1682 0.14403
% of Games over Time Total 51.85185 50.00000 48.14815

No plays on kills or the time total in this one but I do like Dignitas first blood quite a bit. Their 66.66% (repeating of course), to Immortals 40.74% rage is worth paying the juice for as it more than breaks even.

 

My Picks:

Map Spread: Dignitas +1.5 maps @ -156 (1.56 units)

Moneyline: Dignitas +135 (1 unit)

Map Spread: Dignitas -1.5 maps @ +247 (0.5 units)

Map Spread: Dignitas -2.5 maps @ +653 (0.1 units)

Prop: Map 1 Dignitas first blood @ -145 (1.45 units)

Prop: Map 2 Dignitas first blood @ -145 (1.45 units)

Prop: Map 3 Dignitas first blood @ -145 (1.45 units)

Prop: Map 4 Dignitas first blood @ -145 (1.45 units)

Prop: Map 5 Dignitas first blood @ -145 (1.45 units)

 

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and you can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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