Wednesday, April 7th Recap

 

Royal Never Give Up vs FunPlus Phoenix (Net: +13.1275 units)

Big win on this one which is always nice.

Admittedly I didn’t think we’d get such a decisive 3-0 but I did think FPX were the better team, the model thought they were the better team, and that’s what ended up happening. Now, FPX played out of their minds in this series make no mistake, I’m not even sure it would have mattered at the end of the day, but I really didn’t like RNG’s game plan for this series and they looked woefully underprepared to my eyes.

When you know for a fact that a team is going to play with the torrid pace that FPX do you simply can’t index into scaling. I know it’s what worked for RNG all season but as I’ll talk about in a little bit, the further into the season you get, the better teams become at reliably snowballing advantages and actually closing out games. You simply can’t punt two lanes and a jungle matchup in a series against good tempo teams like FPX or you’re going to get run over like we saw here. I took particular issue with the Seraphine pick in game three. It’s rare that I’ll ever criticize a Seraphine pick with how powerful that champion is but after getting steamrolled in back-to-back games you, as the coach, have to read the room and make the decision that this no priority mid is simply not the right fit for the situation at hand. I’m not sure it mattered what RNG did today, FPX were just on fire but I would have liked to see them switch it up and play something more early game focused if for nothing else than to throw a curveball at FPX.

Nuguri was unbelievably good in this series. He put Xiaohu in the dumpster and there aren’t really any players this season that can say they’ve done that. FPX didn’t let RNG camp the top lane and as we got hints of the first time these two teams played, if you leave Xiaohu isolated against Nuguri, Nuguri is going to win. A world champion caliber performance for sure in this one.

 

Daily Net Total: +13.1275 units

 

Current Week (April 5th-11th):  +20.7975 units (+25.26% ROI)

 

Last Week (March 29th to April 4th):  +30.69 units (+14.26% ROI)

 

 


LOL Pro League (LPL)

Spring Playoffs

Winners Bracket – Round 4

 

 

EDward Gaming +164 (+1.5 maps @ -141, +2.5 @ -526, -1.5 @ +305, -2.5 @ +884)

vs

TOP Esports -217 (-1.5 maps @ +111, -2.5 @ +355, +1.5 @ -435, +2.5 @ -2500)

 

 

Map ML Price: TOP -167 / EDG +130

Total Maps Played: 3.5 maps (over -312 / under +229), 4.5 maps (over +177 / under -233)

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -104 / under -125)

Kill Spread: +3.5 @ -112 / -3.5 @ -115

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -135 / under +104)

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

TOP Tale of the Tape EDG
1510.7 Gold Diff @ 10 min 434.4
1494.2 Gold Diff @ 15 min 916.6
373.3 Gold Diff @ 20 min 947.8
84.5 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 36.0
154.8 Gold Diff / min first 20 68.1
-331.8 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 497.8
1908.2 Gold /min (GPM) 1876.6
110.8 Gold / min vs Avg 79.2
200.5 Gold Diff / min 192.0
2.8 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 2.7
1668.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1668.5
118.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 102.9
2010.4 GPM in wins 1944.4
417.2 Gold Diff per min in wins 324.5
1703.9 GPM in losses 1639.6
-233.1 Gold Diff per min in losses -272.0
210.0 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 201.5
46.2 Win-Adjusted GPM -19.8
88.7 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -4.0
55.5 Dragon Control % 62.5
67.3 Herald Control % 53.5
65.4 Baron Control % 60.4
21.0 Quality Wins? 16.0
55.3 % of wins as Quality 57.1

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

EDG series moneyline @ +164 (strong)

EDG +1.5 maps @ -141 (moderate-strong)

EDG map moneyline @ +129 (moderate)

EDG -1.5 maps @ +305 (moderate)

 

Quantitative Analysis:

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
3 1 19.675%
3 2 19.189%
2 3 18.265%
1 3 17.825%
3 0 13.449%
0 3 11.597%
(Series Win): 52.313%

(TOP projected series win % via model)

 

 

 * TOP Left / EDG Right

 

  • Gold per minute in wins: 2nd / 13th
  • Gold Differential per minute in wins: 1st / 10th
  • Gold per minute in losses: 1st / 7th
  • Gold Differential per minute in losses: 1st / 4th
  • Win-adjusted gold per minute: 2nd / 13th
  • Win-adjusted gold differential per minute: 1st / 10th
  • Kill-agnostic gold per minute: 4th / 3rd
  • Kill-agnostic gold differential per minute: 1st / 3rd
  • Opponent kill-agnostic gold per minute: 3rd / 4th
  • Overall Objective Control: 1st / 3rd
  • Season Record vs non-LNG playoff teams (other top 9): TOP 12-9 / EDG 12-7
  • Overall Team Rating: 1st / 4th
  • TOP won the regular season meeting 2-1, snowballed two games, EDG scaled 2nd.

 

The model doesn’t weight these advanced metrics as heavily as the raw numbers yet but when you look at them they tell a significantly different story than the raw production does. EDG are clearly a good team, make no mistake, but we saw this morning with FPX what can happen when an exceptionally strong early game team punishes a more scaling focused team.

TOP have an edge, often significant, in almost every one of the adjusted and kill-agnostic metrics except for pure kill-agnostic gold per minute where the two are essentially tied. The win-adjusted metrics paint a particularly harsh reality for EDG, that just like RNG, relied way too much on maneuvering late game situations rather than just being a +EV situation to begin with. More on that in a below.

 

I’m actually slightly more bullish on TOP than the model is here almost entirely based on the advanced metrics.

 

 

 

Now with both filtered to top nine matchups only.

 

TOP Tale of the Tape* EDG
2357.1 Gold Diff @ 10 min 337.1
1113.2 Gold Diff @ 15 min 471.4
176.3 Gold Diff @ 20 min 75.8
91.6 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 16.1
133.2 Gold Diff / min first 20 15.2
301.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 356.2
1866.6 Gold /min (GPM) 1813.0
75.3 Gold / min vs Avg 21.7
133.4 Gold Diff / min 82.9
1.9 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.2
1648.4 Kill Agnostic GPM 1638.8
87.8 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 37.5
1978.2 GPM in wins 1912.5
380.9 Gold Diff per min in wins 286.8
1705.4 GPM in losses 1642.5
-224.1 Gold Diff per min in losses -266.6
153.3 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 102.8
17.8 Win-Adjusted GPM -47.9
56.7 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -37.4
55.8 Dragon Control % 61.3
68.2 Herald Control % 52.6
63.3 Baron Control % 50.0
6.0 Quality Wins? 5.0
50.0 % of wins as Quality 41.7

 

 

(* Tale of the Tape with all non-top 9 matchups filtered out for both teams)

 

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
3 1 25.345%
3 2 20.720%
3 0 20.669%
2 3 14.324%
1 3 12.113%
0 3 6.829%
(Series Win): 66.733%

 

(TOP series outcome projections with all non-top 9 matchups filtered out for both teams)

 

* TOP Left / EDG Right

 

  • Gold per minute in wins: 5th / 16th
  • Gold Differential per minute in wins: 4th / 13th
  • Gold per minute in losses: 1st / 6th
  • Gold Differential per minute in losses: 1st / 4th
  • Win-adjusted gold per minute: 5th / 16th
  • Win-adjusted gold differential per minute: 4th / 13th
  • Kill-agnostic gold per minute: 4th / 7th
  • Kill-agnostic gold differential per minute: 2nd / 9th
  • Opponent kill-agnostic gold per minute: 3rd / 9th
  • Overall Objective Control: 1st / 4th
  • Overall Team Rating: 1st / 5th

 

As we can see, difference in the advanced economy metrics becomes even further exacerbated when filtering to against the top nine teams only. Now the catch with dragon centric teams is that their overall differentials and economy metrics aren’t always as strong as all-around teams or early game centric teams BUT the most important one to key in on for evaluation is kill-agnostic metrics because the idea of scaling to the late game for a potential soul stack or a turn in general requires you to be able to capture as much gold on the map as possible even when at a deficit. The best scaling teams have a strong kill agnostic economy even if their differentials aren’t the best. EDG aren’t bad regarding this but they’re certainly not to the level that you’d expect from a team with their record.

 

All-in-all that’s the big take away for this entire quantitative section. EDG are very clearly not as good as their record. Strictly looking at the numbers would suggest more of a “good but not great” team perhaps suggesting that they vastly exceeded statistical expectation here.

 

Looking at the performance for both teams against elite level competition TOP have a significantly stronger statistical profile. With that in mind the model likes no plays.

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge) AFTER filter:

none

Conclusion: Huge advantage TOP in advanced metrics. EDG are not as good as their record, TOP are just as good against elite competition. Market price is accurate.

 

Qualitative Analysis:

We saw firsthand this morning what can happen when an elite early game team isn’t contested in the draft or effectively on the Rift. RNG got by all year long by playing the scaling and macro game, something they were very VERY strong at doing but they got completely wiped off the table. Now, obviously FPX played exceptionally this morning and it’s fair to criticize RNG’s plan for this series but EDG and RNG are similar teams and TOP and FPX are similar teams so I think you can see where this is going.

This is a stylistic nightmare for EDG even if the pound-for-pound player talent and intelligent approach to the game is there. As many of you know, I consistently beat the drum for tempo-centric teams and part of the reason for that is by this time in the season, it’s often just a better strategy than the “scale and pray” that we see a lot of teams get away with early. EDG are not that linear (like say DRX for example). They’re more than capable of a versatile approach but they haven’t had a particularly strong early game this season and perhaps most importantly they haven’t done nearly as well against the top nine teams as they have in their season long numbers while TOP are more or less the same. Playing from ahead is much easier, way less stressful, and if you can consistently deliver on that and it’s easier to steadily improve your closing technique and speed than it is to just become a better early laning team or complete identity shift like that. The true greats can do that, and I think EDG can do that but only to a certain extent. TOP’s greatest strength just lines up way too well with EDG’s biggest hole in the armor (not that it’s a big one).

Now, in terms of a betting position, I’ll be passing on a side in this contest. By the full season metrics there is definite value on EDG here. They’ve also had the extra preparation time which can be good or bad (usually good). It makes a lot of sense to back EDG if that’s how you’re looking at this but my success this playoffs has been derived from looking at how these teams match up against elite competition and completely throwing out the bottom eight teams all together. It tells a very different story when you do that. I think TOP win this series 3-1 but that the market price is tight so I won’t have a position.

Conclusion: Stylistic advantage to TOP. Price accurate means no play.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Combined AVG kills per game: 25.328

Odds-Weighted: 27.655

Time-Implied: 26.204

Underdog Win: 28.473

“Gelati” Total Projection: 26.431 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 46.63% (TOP 57.14% / EDG 36.11%)

Volatility Rating:  TOP 0.35167 / EDG 0.27030 (League Avg: 0.3129)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

—-

Team Totals:

EDG team total OVER 11.5 @ -103 (strong)

 

TOP League Average EDG
Combined Kills / game 29.065 25.86 21.590
Combined Kills / min 0.963 0.86 0.720
Kills per win 18.743 18.02 16.821
Kills per loss 11.651 8.72 8.344
Deaths per win 6.82 8.15 6.93
Deaths per loss 20.42 17.95 15.50
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 11.47 9.57 9.46
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 9.37 9.67 6.63
Combined Avg Kills / game 25.328

 (above full season / below only “vs top nine”)

TOP League Average EDG
Combined Kills / game 29.091 25.88 21.240
Combined Kills / min 0.946 0.86 0.695
Kills per win 17.334 17.86 15.563
Kills per loss 12.271 8.76 8.438
Deaths per win 7.31 8.16 6.17
Deaths per loss 20.33 17.93 15.14
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 9.92 9.43 8.58
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 9.67 9.66 6.14
Combined Avg Kills / game 25.166

I don’t show any real advantage on the kill total markets in this contest unless you’re more bullish on EDG’s prospects of winning this series than I am. Read below because I like the time total under which doesn’t do the kill total over any favors but TOP have a very high combined kills per minute so I’m skeptical to back the under either. Pass all around.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 31.145 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 31.0 / 30.94

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 41.47% (TOP 35.71% / EDG 47.22%)

Volatility Rating: TOP 0.14653 / EDG 0.14307 (League Avg: 0.16167)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 33:00 @ +104 (strong)

 

TOP EDG
Average Game Time 30.49 31.80
Avg Game Time (in wins) 30.09 31.58
Avg Game Time (in losses) 29.444 32.590

(above full season / below only “vs top nine”)

TOP EDG
Average Game Time 31.32 32.38
Avg Game Time (in wins) 30.09 32.33
Avg Game Time (in losses) 29.444 32.460

I absolutely love this time total under and we’re getting plus money on it. Even against top nine teams every single win/loss/avg iteration of this is under the total AND only 41.54% (avg) (TOP 35.71% / EDG 47.22%) of games went over this total combined. I also think TOP win this series which is even more favorable for the under. Two units each.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

TOP first tower @ -152 (VERY strong)**

EDG first tower @ +112 (strong)**

EDG first blood @ -103 (strong)**

TOP first blood @ -125 (moderate-strong)**

UNDER 4.5 dragons @ +107 (moderate-strong)

OVER 1.5 barons @ +134 (light)

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -286 (miniscule)

** denotes advantage in a category that the opponent is also strong in, must be considered

 

Both these teams are very good in the neutral game so I’ll be passing there although EDG first blood is a decent looking play. The under 4.5 dragons is a good look as well but I’m already playing double stake on the under 33:00 and prefer that at a similar price.

Note: I filtered these as well and it showed a similar result. No neutral plays.

 

My Picks:

 

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ +104 (2 units)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ +104 (2 units)

Time Total: Map 3 UNDER 33:00 @ +104 (2 units)

Time Total: Map 4 UNDER 33:00 @ +104 (2 units)

Time Total: Map 5 UNDER 33:00 @ +104 (2 units)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

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