Wednesday, March 31st Recap

 

Hanwha Life Esports vs Nongshim RedForce (Net: +2.64 units)

In yesterday’s post I addressed a few concerns I had regarding Hanwha’s ability to adjust to unfamiliar looks and a few other causes for concern in regards to “how clean” a series this would be from them. Frankly, that wasn’t the case here at all. Nongshim didn’t show anything crazy or new or creative in this series at all unless you want to count Bay’s Renekton which has hasn’t played professionally until now. No this was much simpler than that. Hanwha showed some MASSIVE gaps in both their preparation and versatility in this series. Deft or the team, perhaps it doesn’t matter, had absolutely zero willingness to play Tristana which completely hamstrung their bottom lane leverage in all five games here forcing bans and having to opt into poor matchups repeatedly. Multiple times (games two and three) they opted to play Udyr into Hecarim, a matchup that hasn’t been having a lot of success in any league since the Udyr nerfs a couple of patches ago.

I’m not going to go full game-by-game here. In short, Nongshim played way above their level in this series and given the fumbles by Hanwha probably should have won this series but they just didn’t because of Chovy who just went completely ballistic in a few of these games like only the greatest of the greats can. I don’t really need to extol the ability of the best player in the world yet again but this series really did feel like a 1v9 throughout the majority of it. Hanwha has had a few players step up this season and elevate (both junglers, Vsta) but this team would be absolutely awful without Chovy in the mix. I haven’t seen this level of hard carrying a full team since early Uzi. It’s McDavid on the Oilers or early Lebron on the Cavs level of “One Man Show” status. Even if I take issue with Hanwha’s style there’s nothing quite like watching just how long Atlus can hold the Earth. Appreciate it as these situations come up very rarely.

With that in mind, this series did nothing to bolster a case for backing Hanwha next round against an elite team. In fact it had the opposite effect.

 

LCK Net Total: +2.64 units

 

Daily Net Total: +2.64 units (+20.85% ROI)

 

 

Last Week (March 22nd-28th):  +5.3355 units(+2.4% ROI)

 


 

 

 

LOL Champions Korea (LCK)

Spring Playoffs

Round 1 – Day 2

 

 

 

T1 -833 (-1.5 maps @ -323, -2.5 @ +126, +1.5 @ -2000)

vs

DRX +504 (+1.5 maps @ +228, +2.5 @ -161, -1.5 @ +865, -2.5 @ +1900)

 

 

Map ML Price: T1 -323 / DRX +237

Total Maps Played: 3.5 maps (over -143 / under +112), 4.5 maps (over +302 / under -435)

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -109 / under -119)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -120 / +7.5 @ -108

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 7.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -104 / under -125)

 (Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

T1 Tale of the Tape DRX
679.0 Gold Diff @ 10 min -180.5
1515.3 Gold Diff @ 15 min -305.8
1868.9 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1045.8
58.2 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -58.6
97.3 Gold Diff / min first 20 -46.8
179.1 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -111.8
1839.7 Gold /min (GPM) 1759.3
55.3 Gold / min vs Avg -25.1
112.7 Gold Diff / min -42.6
1.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.6
1647.6 Kill Agnostic GPM 1616.6
69.2 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -14.4
1959.1 GPM in wins 1907.6
350.1 Gold Diff per min in wins 248.8
1650.1 GPM in losses 1639.5
-264.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -277.9
115.2 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -40.1
28.2 Win-Adjusted GPM -23.2
56.5 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -44.8
51.8 Dragon Control % 41.1
56.5 Herald Control % 32.6
55.9 Baron Control % 47.7
18.0 Quality Wins? 2.0
66.7 % of wins as Quality 9.5

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

Quantitative Analysis:

This is a really sharp number. I found nothing in any of the sides markets including the exact map score props and map totals which were all right on or strictly negative EV.

There really isn’t a whole lot you can point to from a quantitative angle that is going in favor of DRX so it’s perhaps more important to look at this from the perspective of just how much better and whether the price is justified.

Statistically, DRX do nothing well. They’re below the league average in every economy measure I have, have the second worst dragon control and third worst overall objective control in the LCK, and are in the bottom four in early game economy, pace rating, and quality wins. They rank 8th in win-adjusted gold differential per minute and win-adjusted gold per minute even behind teams like KT Rolster and Afreeca. There really isn’t much ground to stand on here. The only thing they’re remotely close to T1 in is gold per minute and gold differential per minute in losses.

You can now see why I’ve been so eager to fade this team all season.

Conclusion: HUGE edge for T1

 

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
3 0 40.490%
3 1 31.606%
3 2 16.448%
2 3 5.785%
1 3 3.910%
0 3 1.762%
(Series Win): 88.544%

(T1 projected series win % via model)

Qualitative Analysis:

As I mentioned above there really isn’t a whole lot of ground to stand on for DRX other than their ability to find good team fights from deficits later in games. That’s an important skill that’s been exercised quite a bit from being down all the time this season. I’ll give DRX’s coaching staff credit for giving them easy to execute team compositions as well. That doesn’t go unappreciated for a young team like this.

So really what this is about is whether or not you can justify a position on either side here based on the film. T1 haven’t been immaculate, even with the veteran lineup a finally getting the full time workload, but they’ve been significantly cleaner than the more eager, younger counterpart.

I just have such a hard time seeing DRX winning more than a game in this series. T1 have had a solid grasp on what is good in the metagame and I don’t see them having the draft follies that we saw with Hanwha this morning or any kind of arrogance or disrepsect happening either. Outside of a substitution I’m having a really difficult time here folks.

Another added bonus for T1 is that this team has a history, in every iteration, of being excellent with extended time to prepare for a match.

I’ll be going against my model’s suggestion to pass and just taking the T1 -1.5 maps even at the lofty current price. Just for disclosure, I backed T1 earlier in the week at -556 on the moneyline, -1.5 and -2.5 maps. Getting a good price is important but I would still take them even at the current number from this article which is what I will be using, as always, for my record keeping.

Conclusion: HUGE T1 advantage

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 25.798

Time-Implied: 25.898

Underdog Win: 23.399

“Gelati” Total Projection: 25.742 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 51.74% (T1 54.545% / DRX 48.94%)

Volatility Rating:  T1 0.28981 / DRX 0.34265 (League Avg: 0.3125)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

—-

Team Totals:

DRX team total OVER 7.5 @ -127 (strong)

T1 team total UNDER 14.5 @ -105 (very light)

T1 League Average DRX
Combined Kills / game 26.233 23.62 24.695
Combined Kills / min 0.834 0.74 0.726
Kills per win 18.284 16.42 15.680
Kills per loss 7.719 7.81 8.447
Deaths per win 7.37 7.65 7.24
Deaths per loss 17.24 16.88 17.19
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 10.26 9.15 7.81
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 9.24 9.14 10.04

My projections really like an over in this match because of the anticipated game script and time but the frequency with which these two teams hit that number is right around the 50% mark. If you can find a cheap 22.5 I like that option but at this price I’ll be passing. I think there’s just too much of a chance that T1 have an exceptional game plan for this and completely run over this series which is going to scare me off of time totals as well.

With the low kill total you could maybe make a case for a kill spread for DRX but I’m not messing with it. I think this is going to be a shellacking.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 33.204 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 33.06 / 33.04

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 50.53% (T1 50.98% / DRX 55.55%)

Volatility Rating: T1 0.14816 / DRX 0.16724 (League Avg: 0.15875)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

T1 DRX
Average Game Time 32.71 33.69
Avg Game Time (in wins) 32.43 34.38
Avg Game Time (in losses) 33.159 33.144

 

(see above explanation in kill section)

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 1.5 barons @ +169 (strong)

T1 first tower @ -208 (moderate-strong)

OVER 4.5 dragons @ -106 (moderate-light)

** denotes advantage in a category that the opponent is also strong in, must be considered

This is a very VERY strong value on the over 1.5 barons  but as I’ve mentioned I think there’s a very strong chance we just see a complete bulldozing by T1 in this series. I like T1 first tower quite a bit regardless of script.

 

My Picks:

 

Map Spread: T1 -1.5 maps @ -323 (3.23 units)

Prop: Map 1 T1 first tower @ -208 (2.08 units)

Prop: Map 2 T1 first tower @ -208 (2.08 units)

Prop: Map 3 T1 first tower @ -208 (2.08 units)

Prop: Map 4 T1 first tower @ -217 (2.17 units)

Prop: Map 5 T1 first tower @ -217 (2.17 units)

 


LOL Pro League (China)

Spring Playoffs

Round 1 – Day 1

 

 

 

#8 RareAtom +101 (+1.5 maps @ -213, +2.5 @ -769, -1.5 @ +211, -2.5 @ +652)

vs

#9 Invictus Gaming -130 (-1.5 map @ +168, -2.5 @ +489, +1.5 @ -278, +2.5 @ -1250)

 

 

Map ML Price: RA -105 / IG -120

Total Maps Played: 3.5 maps (over -357 / under +256), 4.5 maps (over +164 / under -213)

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -123 / under -105)

Kill Spread: +3.5 @ -111 / -3.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over +125 / under -167)

 (Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

Invictus Tale of the Tape RA
1222.7 Gold Diff @ 10 min -1205.7
1083.6 Gold Diff @ 15 min 32.4
2704.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -179.1
56.8 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 31.6
60.6 Gold Diff / min first 20 17.9
104.5 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 309.7
1840.8 Gold /min (GPM) 1823.2
36.4 Gold / min vs Avg 18.7
81.0 Gold Diff / min 61.0
1.1 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.9
1611.5 Kill Agnostic GPM 1648.0
46.4 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 57.2
1999.7 GPM in wins 1944.8
382.3 Gold Diff per min in wins 314.6
1618.4 GPM in losses 1652.8
-340.7 Gold Diff per min in losses -294.1
79.1 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 59.0
32.6 Win-Adjusted GPM -22.2
50.7 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -17.0
62.7 Dragon Control % 48.9
43.1 Herald Control % 45.1
67.5 Baron Control % 56.6
13.0 Quality Wins? 7.0
61.9 % of wins as Quality 33.3

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Invictus series moneyline @ -130 (VERY strong)

Invictus -1.5 maps @ +168 (strong)

Invictus map moneyline @ -120 (moderate-strong)

Invictus -2.5 maps @ +489 (moderate)

UNDER 3.5 maps @ +256 (moderate)

 

Quantitative Analysis:

Invictus have edges more or less across the board with the main exception being kill-agnostic economy measures where RA have a decent advantage in kill-agnostic gold per minute but only a small advantage in the differential. In other words, IG are still denying a lot of gold to their opponents at the expense of their own economy. Only four teams allow less kill-agnostic gold per minute to their opponents than IG (TOP, WE, FPX, and RNG).

Perhaps the most glaring difference here is the win-adjusted economy numbers for RareAtom which are in stark contrast to the other playoff teams (besides Suning and JDG who also struggle in this). Win-adjusted numbers compare what the average win for the team in question looks like against the average win across the league. This type of normalization helps provide a lot more context and offers insight into just how much better an average win or loss looks in comparison to the rest of the league. It’s a very strong indicator for overall quality when combined. RareAtom actually score below average in their wins and have significantly fewer “quality wins.” This is partially a symptom of their longer, more methodical play style but the point still stands that they aren’t exactly the most convincing winners for the most part.

Working in RareAtom’s favor however is that they’re one of the toughest losers. They rank 6th in gold differential per minute in losses and 4th in gold per minute in losses. They’re a surprisingly difficult team to gain significant advantages over which matches up surprisingly well against Invictus who rely heavily on amassing huge gold leads for their more decisive victories.

Perhaps the biggest advantage working in favor of Invictus is their overall objective control which is quite a bit better than RareAtom’s despite the two teams being ideologically similar in terms of how they prefer to play out their opening ten.

RareAtom actually hold an advantage in the individual player model which might come a surprise to a lot of people but their players have been quietly putting in stellar seasons.

Ultimately I think the numbers paint a rather strange picture for RareAtom and suggest that they’re just a tad overrated based on their win total for the season. I think this team is good and the players are excellent but they sometimes struggle to tie everything together and that’s concerning.

Conclusion: Advantage Invictus

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
3 1 27.127%
3 0 23.751%
3 2 20.655%
2 3 12.698%
1 3 10.252%
0 3 5.518%
(Series Win): 71.533%

 

(Invictus projected series win % via model)

Qualitative Analysis:

I somewhat touched on it at the end there but RareAtom are a bit of an anomaly. There are cases that they should be better than their results this season and cases that they should be worse than their final results depending on what you’re looking at. The film tells a similar story with a lot of inconsistency on a game-to-game basis. RareAtom have excellent players, particularly at laning and they accrue some huge advantages in this phase of the game in much the same way that a team like Griffin used to do in the past (or even Invictus strangely enough). Unlike Griffin, however, they sometimes struggle to really close the door and deliver the killing blow when they’ve got an opponent on the ropes. They’re also a little shaky setting up around objectives in general and when they don’t have significant laning advatnages they often look lost. Invictus are similar in many ways but they’re much more explosive at ballooning advantages. That comes at a price sometimes in that they’re slightly higher risk.

RareAtom are very VERY good at minimizing losses which is the most interesting part of this whole series. They’re designed to NOT get run over even when they’re losing. They make a lot of conscious decisions to cut losses and keep teams from blowing them out. Invictus sometimes struggle when they aren’t able to amass a gigantic gold lead. For this reason I think this series is likely to be more competitive than the model thinks.

The first time these two played it was a RareAtom rout. I don’t think we’ll see that again either. I think this is going to be a back-and-forth series. So much of Invictus’ game revolves around getting TheShy into advantageous matchups and Cube has quietly been one of the best all-around top laners in the world this season playing a lot of both weak and strong side, blind and counter picks with a lot of variety. He had an easy time last time out but I also think TheShy picked himself into some bad matchups so it’s important to keep that in mind.

Ultimately I’m still backing Invictus in this series but I’m not nearly as bullish as the model is.

Conclusion: edges for both in different aspects

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 29.095

Time-Implied: 28.799

Underdog Win: 23.126

“Gelati” Total Projection: 28.982 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 51.39% (IG 52.78% / RA 50%)

Volatility Rating:  IG 0.33408 / RA 0.32653 (League Avg: 0.3062)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

—-

Team Totals:

IG team total OVER 13.5 @ -123 (moderate-light)

RA team total OVER 12.5 @ -112 (moderate-light)

 

Invictus League Average RareAtom
Combined Kills / game 29.514 26.19 26.191
Combined Kills / min 1.041 0.88 0.817
Kills per win 21.190 18.43 16.863
Kills per loss 6.263 8.82 13.510
Deaths per win 9.19 8.15 8.67
Deaths per loss 17.87 18.07 18.73
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 11.29 9.67 7.81
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 10.47 9.75 10.40

 

Each of these teams has a lot of outlier performances boosting their averages up but you can tell just looking at the frequencies and the fact that both teams are among the LPL’s most volatile in terms of combined kills per game, it makes sense to just stay away from this unless you have a specific game script in mind. If you think these end up turning into longer, grindier, slugfests then the over seems like a nice play here but I kind of think these are going to be quicker, mid to high kill games but with potentially very short game times it’s entirely possible we get a kill per minute and not hit the total.  Pass.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 31.004 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 31.07 / 31.14

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 37.5% (IG 22.22% / RA 52.78%)

Volatility Rating: IG 0.14709 / RA 0.16696 (League Avg: 0.16133)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

Invictus RareAtom
Average Game Time 28.99 33.02
Avg Game Time (in wins) 29.00 32.46
Avg Game Time (in losses) 28.983 33.792

This is just a contrast of closing speed. Both of these teams play similarly in their opening to the game but RareAtom are more methodical with how they close out games while Invictus are actually one of the fastest ending teams in the world. The over at plus money doesn’t look like a bad play here if you think this match is competitive but IG tend to both win AND lose games quickly so it’s a tough position to justify. I’ll pass.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -208 (VERY strong)

Invictus first dragon @ -119 (VERY strong)**

Invictus first blood @ -116 (very light)**

UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -118 (very light)

** denotes advantage in a category that the opponent is also strong in, must be considered

I played the Invictus first dragon despite RareAtom being a decent dragon team this season. IG are hitting it at over a 72.2% clip. The under tower total is something else that I hit. Obviously these teams have been part of some lopsided matches over the season but between the two of them only 13.9% of matches go over this total showing some huge value on this.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: Invictus -130 (1.3 units)

Map Spread: Invictus -1.5 maps @ +168 (0.5 units)

Map Spread: Invictus -2.5 maps @ +489 (0.25 units)

Prop: Map 1 IG first dragon @ -119 (1.19 units)

Prop: Map 2 IG first dragon @ -119 (1.19 units)

Prop: Map 3 IG first dragon @ -119 (1.19 units)

Prop: Map 4 IG first dragon @ -119 (1.19 units)

Prop: Map 5 IG first dragon @ -119 (1.19 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -208 (2.08 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -208 (2.08 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -208 (2.08 units)

Prop: Map 4 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -208 (2.08 units)

Prop: Map 5 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -208 (2.08 units)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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