Saturday, May 8th Recap

 

Royal Never Give Up vs Unicorns of Love (Net: -1.53 units)

There isn’t really a lot to say about this one it was just a wire-to-wire shellacking by RNG. The swap of Lee Sin to mid lane to punish the attempted Kassadin pick was slick and a great choice as it completely unlocked Xiaohu to abuse the pressure advantage with roams to the bottom lane. Wei also got Rumble.

I’m not entirely sure why teams continue to leave Rumble up but maybe it’s the “op” they’re willing to try to beat. RNG you probably need to start taking off of their comfort at this point so take away the Kaisa, probably ban Rumble and then coin flip the Lucian/Lee/Trist if you’re on red side. It’s easier said than done for sure but someone at least has to get this team off of their comfort zone right now.

Unicorns of Love vs Pentanet.GG (Net: +4.01 units)

UOL had a strong start to this game and looked like they were in complete control before a pretty rough teamfight in the mid lane  (22:30) where Praedyth who was pretty fed and equipped with a black shield from Morgana just completely ran away with the fight on Samiyra. From there PGG controlled the rest of the game in much the same way that they did domestically.

Pentanet looked A LOT better today and much more the way I anticipated that they would going into this tournament. Sometimes I fall prey to overreacting a bit too but they really did look completely out of form the first two days.

DAMWON Kia vs Detonation FocusMe (Net: -3.85 units)

DAMWON probably should have lost this game. DFM completely dominated the first twenty minutes but DAMWON did all the things you’re supposed to do from a deficit. Trading up, taking what’s given to you, keeping farm numbers up, and not forcing bad fights when you have superior scaling. Multiple barons, a soul, and multiple inhibitor captures made this look pretty good for DFM but they got a little bit ahead of themselves a few times to give some gold back and then eventually just lost their nerve while sieging the bottom inhibitor with a disjointed engage.

DAMWON probably should have lost this but they do get credit for playing intelligent defense.

This game was a great example of a few concepts. First, not overreacting … I’m going to keep hammering this point home. Second, part of what makes DAMWON so good is that you have to be more or less perfect to beat them. There have been SO MANY teams this season that have come close to beating them and ended up losing their nerve, choking, or making a critical error. You have to have a 98th+ percentile performance to beat this team as almost all of DAMWON’s losses are. Their floor is just so ridiculously high. Third, this is what makes the smaller region teams difficult to trust from a consistency perspective; they make these kinds of errors all the time. Be thorough when closing.

DFM have looked pretty good but again it’s two days but I’m not putting too much stock into either side of this match. It was a bit of a soul crusher for the underdogs though.

Cloud 9 vs Infinity Esports (Net: -1.51 units)

Cloud 9 weren’t really that far out of this game. A really creative jungle pathing by SolidSnake got an early kill bottom side and Infinity had a decent start but they didn’t really get a lot done with it and Cloud 9 eventually just ground them to a pulp over the map and not making mistakes. I think we’ll see a lot more “wait for the other team to screw up” approach from Cloud 9 the rest of this group stage.

MAD Lions vs paiN Gaming (Net: -3.04 units)

MAD looked to be in full control of this game, nearly threw it biting off a little more than they could chew at the third drake but turned it around… and then nearly threw it again battling for the sixth drake (soul point). MAD honestly could have lost this to an ocean soul.

This isn’t really a new thing with MAD. They get a little overzealous at times and that can sometimes bite them. They’re not always thorough and disciplined which will lose them a game like this against a good team where they don’t have as gigantic a lead as they did. Bad habit.

Regardless a good look from MAD overall. Pain with almost another comeback.

 

Istanbul Wildcast vs PSG Talon (Net: +1.89 units)

Talon completely destroyed this game off the back of a very questionable early teleport play by Serin that likely wasn’t going to work out and then predictably didn’t. Nerves maybe getting to the newcomers to the international stage. Talon wire-to-wire.

Parlays: (pending, MAD first leg complete)

 

Daily Total: -4.03 units

 

Crucified on unders and a few of these games being more competitive but I’ll be going back to that well again tomorrow.

 


Adjustments for Day Four

Still think unders are the play. We got one of those weirdly competitive days that sometimes happen in these groups but I’m not going to let that scare me off of what I think will end up being a mostly lopsided and chalky tournament.


Mid-Season Invitational

Group Stage – Day Four

First day of the second round robin is Group A

 

Unicorns of Love +693 vs Royal Never Give Up -1429

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -105 / under -122)

Kill Spread: +12.5 @ -111 / -12.5 @ -118

Team Kill Totals: 6.5 / 19.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over +195 / under -263)

 

Part of me thinks that at some point teams will attempt to take RNG off their comfort picks but honestly I’m not sure it’ll even matter that much. That’s my only real concern here or that they just screw around a little too much. The thing with RNG is that they’re completely out of character and still steamrolling these bad teams.

I’ve got some Unicorns +10.5 from pre-tournament salvo which feels a little silly at this point but I’ll be taking the unders again as mentioned above.

Additional Picks:

Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ -122 (1.22 units)

Time Total: UNDER 30:00 @ -263 (2.63 units)

Prop: UNDER 12.5 towers @ -357 (3.57 units)

 


Unicorns of Love -256 vs Pentanet.GG +193

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -112 / under -115)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -115 / +8.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +125 / under -164)

 

Pentanet looked a lot better today and even got one off of a monstrous teamfight by Praedyth’s Samiyra but I’m not sure we can rely on him getting that fed again. I have some Pentanet +7.5 kills and a half stake on the moneyline from my pre-tournament wagers. I’m not going to hedge out of those as it’s not exactly a great situation to even cut losses in but I am going to continue to hit the unders. These two could end up playing a slugfest but more often than not I think it’s going to be a bit more explosive and a “one fight wins the game” type situation. With nerves and pressure the under kill totals tend to be better as well with teams not wanting to make big mistakes.

Additional Picks:

Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ -115 (1.15 units)

Time Total: UNDER 32:00 @ -164 (1.64 units)

 


Royal Never Give Up -1429 vs Unicorns of Love +702

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: -12.5 @ -109 / +12.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 18.5 / 6.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over +182 / under -244)

 

There’s a chance RNG clown around in this one after having already clinched (as with the next match) which makes me a little skeptical but I’ll be making the same plays on this one. System unders.

Additional Picks:

Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ -120 (1.20 units)

Time Total: UNDER 30:00 @ -244 (2.44 units)

Prop: UNDER 12.5 towers @ -357 (3.57 units)

 


Pentanet.GG +193 vs Unicorns of Love -256

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -109 / under -119)

Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -114 / -8.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 16.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +125 / under -164)

 

This match might be higher pressure and is likely to be “for all the marbles” in regards to who gets out of Group A but I like the same plays here as I did in the previous match. I know, this post has been terribly unexciting… sometimes it be like that.

Additional Picks:

Kill Total: UNDER 26.5 @ -119 (1.19 units)

Time Total: UNDER 32:00 @ -164 (1.64 units)

 


Pentanet.GG +992 vs Royal Never Give Up -3333

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -110 / under -119)

Kill Spread: +12.5 @ -109 / -12.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 6.5 / 18.5

Time Total: 29:00 (over +191 / under -256)

 

A minute shaved, a fatter line, and lower total. There’s a very VERY strong chance that this turns into a troll game. If Pentanet lose the matches prior to this and are eliminated before it and RNG have clinched first there’s a VERY STRONG possibility that this ends up with some troll picks and clowning around. I’m going to avoid messing with this one although I’d once again lean unders.

No additional picks

 

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

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