Saturday, March 6th Recap

 

DAMWON vs Afreeca (Net: +2.2 units)

Kiin tried out the Nasus as an interesting counter option against Sion and one that I could see working but when you have a full physical damage team comp and he can just stack armor… yea you’re playing on hard mode. All DAMWON had to do was wait you out even your stacking Q didn’t matter because they were all physical damage. Game two was a DAMWON shellacking.

Interesting look from DAMWON and nice seeing Fly back on one of his signature global picks in the Pantheon but they were just outclassed here and sort of dug their own grave before the game started in game one.

T1 vs KT Rolster (Net: +2.41 units)

Vladimir was a nice touch by KT but T1 jumped out to a huge lead in game one. Game two was sloppy and I have absolutely no idea how KT managed to lose this with the scaling composition they put together. Obviously there was a lot of mistakes by KT Rolster but I want to give some credit to T1 here for actually finding windows and a route to victory in this game two that looked completely over. Clozer had a RIDICULOUS Zoe performance in this one. He found every pick, chunked out carries before fights, and never really let KT get established in their full team fight look without being chunked out. That was just about the only way they were going to win this game and they got it done. Props.

KT are just a little too predictable for my liking but they did jump out to a lead with a scaling comp against T1 so they probably deserve some credit. They’re still battling for the last playoff spot and it’s possible but this was a really critical match in that race. It’s an uphill battle too with Gen.G, Hanwha, DAMWON, and an off the schneid Liiv Sandbox team to finish the season. Good chance KT miss playoffs. Put up or shut up time.

T1 helped out their chances of making playoffs a lot with this win. Gen.G and Hanwha look like tough outs but Afreeca and DRX are very winnable matches and there’s a chance T1 only need one more win to lock playoffs although two would be a more “sure” thing.

LNG vs LGD (Net: +3.94 units)

We made a bunch on this series but man this was difficult to watch. At least it was only the appetizer to the amazing main course that was the majority of this slate. This was three clinical snowballs. I did not expect this series to play out the way that it did at all and maybe avoided a disaster here by dodging the time total overs I was considering.

LGD showed that they can snowball a game against a mediocre team and LNG didn’t really move the needle up or down from this series for me.

FunPlus vs RareAtom (Net: +1.1 units)

RareAtom tried to throw this game one but eventually the Karthus + Orianna + Vayne we simply too much to deal with even for Seraphine. Game two was a back-and-forth for awhile but FPX were getting the better of the map stacking four dragons with their triple global look featuring Doinb’s Nocturne mid again. Game three was extremely competitive, super bloody, and back-and-forth but RareAtom just outscaled with the Karthus + Orianna + Tristana core again against Hecarim + Rumble + Lucian core. FPX just couldn’t get enough done early to snowball this despite having a 4000+ gold lead around the 20 minute mark. I thought this was a well played game by both for the most part. RareAtom made sure to trade neutrally when they could knowing they win late and the gold advantages didn’t end up mattering.

It was weird seeing FPX not close cleanly in game one and three but RareAtom played pretty decent defense from a deficit in both so I don’t really want to massively downgrade or upgrade either team here. Both performed within a reasonable range of their expectation, RareAtom just had the scaling and were better on the day.

Royal Never Give Up vs EDG (Net: +0.33 units)

This series delivered on the hype.

Wei put on an absolute clinic and I’ll continue beating the drum that he might just be the best jungler in the world, or at least in that conversation. Xiaohu continues to impress in his evolution.  RNG played around top side a lot in this series which certainly helps.

Both of these teams are excellent, RNG were just better on the day. No upgrade or downgrade for either.

 

Schalke 04 vs Astralis (Net: -0.41 units)

Vitality vs Excel (Net: +3.05 units)

Fnatic vs SK Gaming (Net: +2.0 units)

Misfits vs G2 Esports (Net: +0.7 units)

MAD Lions vs Rogue (Net: -0.7 units)

 

Golden Guardians vs Dignitas (Net: +1.155 units)

TSM vs 100 Thieves (Net: +1.5 units)

Cloud 9 vs Team Liquid (Net: +1.12 units)

Evil Geniuses vs Immortals (Net: -1.22 units)

FlyQuest vs CLG (Net: -1.0 units)

 

 

LPL Net Total: +5.37 units

LCK Net Total: +4.61 units

LEC Net Total: +4.59 units

LCS Net Total: +1.555 units

 

Daily Net Total: +16.125 units (ROI: +29.9%)

 

Week of March 1st-7th:  +37.04 units (ROI: +18.5%)

 

Great week continues.

 


LOL Pro League (China)

Week 7 – Day 7

 

 

Rogue Warriors -102 (+1.5 maps @ -312, -1.5 @ +265)

vs

OMG -125 (-1.5 maps @ +231, +1.5 @ -370)

 

 

Map ML Price: RW -106 / OMG -120

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +100 / under -127)

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: -2.5 @ -114 / +2.5 @ -114 (weird I know)

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +119 / under -156)

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

RW series moneyline @ -102 (moderate)

RW map moneyline @ -106 (light)

 

OMG Rogue Warriors
-1298.8 Gold Diff @ 10 min -714.5
-2886.8 Gold Diff @ 15 min -916.2
-2734.9 Gold Diff @ 20 min -573.5
-64.3 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -76.8
-179.3 Gold Diff / min first 20 -179.2
-278.2 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 42.0
1660.8 Gold /min 1618.8
-145.3 Gold / min vs Avg -187.3
-278.2 Gold Diff / min -358.9
-3.9 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -5.0
1534.5 Kill Agnostic GPM 1494.4
-161.1 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -215.5
44.8 Dragon Control % 32.7
45.8 Herald Control % 57.4
36.7 Baron Control % 28.6

 

The Toilet Bowl… This is (probably) the two worst teams in the LPL and it’s fairly difficult to really discern or justify much of an advantage on either given how poorly the two have performed so I’m going to keep this handicap simple and just trust the model here.

I do think Rogue Warriors have looked SLIGHTLY better recently with Betty now getting his feet back under him again and the bottom lane situation finally stablized. Rogue Warriors have two of the three best players in this game in Forge and Betty although their performance metrics to date might not show that. Eric is the other.

OMG have done quite literally nothing measurable at anywhere near a league average rate. Once their global composition look got figured out by the league in week two they haven’t really done much. Rogue Warriors are at least playing more different looks albeit poorly.

I’m trust the model on this one, closing my nose and just taking Rogue Warriors but it makes perfect sense to just pass on a side in this one.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 27.117

Time-Implied: 25.415

Underdog Win: 25.411

“Gelati” Total Projection: 25.91 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 43.75% (OMG 41.67% / RW 45.83%)

Volatility Rating: OMG 0.32999 / RW 0.34637 (League Avg: 0.2986)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OMG team total UNDER 12.5 kills @ -103 (VERY strong)*

RW team total UNDER 13.5 kills @ -122 (VERY strong)*

(alt) UNDER 26.5 kills @ -132 (moderate)

(alt) UNDER 24.5 kills @ +109 (moderate-light)

UNDER 25.5 kills @ -110 (light)

 

The team total unders are being very strongly suggested because these two teams have lost a ton and have been blown out in the process. For the full game total I’d actually go against my model and lean toward the over. Typically when we get these bottom-dwelling matchups they’re hilarious, stupid, bloody affairs because nobody knows how to properly close a game out because they’re rarely ever ahead in games and don’t get a lot of practice at it. Given the reasonably high total though I’m just going to pass although I would target this series for DFS purposes for sure.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 30.197 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 32.82 / 32.86

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 27.08% (OMG 29.17% / RW 25%)

Volatility Rating: OMG 0.18387 / RW 0.15499 (League Avg: 0.15805)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 33:00 @ -156 (strong)

OMG RW
Average Game Time 30.14 30.25
Avg Game Time (in wins) 35.68 37.79
Avg Game Time (in losses) 28.682 29.178

 

Again, an under suggestion because these teams have been blown out frequently. Both of these teams win very slowly and usually through opponent error. I can see why it likes the under but again, VERY high clown fiesta potential and I’ll actually be taking the over at plus money.

 

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -179 (VERY strong)

RW first herald @ -116 (VERY strong)

UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -101 (moderate)

OMG first dragon @ -161 (moderate)

UNDER 1.5 barons @ -175 (light)

 

OMG are a dragon team and RW are a herald team. Easy clap. I’m not messing with the tower or dragon totals again because these game states could be all over the place but I’d lean over in all of those as well.

 

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: Rogue Warriors -102 (1.02 units)

Map Spread: Rogue Warriors -1.5 maps @ +265 (0.25 units)

Time Total: Map 1 OVER 33:00 @ +119 (1 unit)

Time Total: Map 2 OVER 33:00 @ +125 (1 unit)

Time Total: Map 3 OVER 33:00 @ +118 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 RW first herald @ -116 (1.16 units)

Prop: Map 2 RW first herald @ -116 (1.16 units)

Prop: Map 3 RW first herald @ -116 (1.16 units)

Prop: Map 1 OMG first dragon @ -161 (1.61 units)

Prop: Map 2 OMG first dragon @ -164 (1.64 units)

Prop: Map 3 OMG first dragon @ -182 (1.82 units)

 


 

ThunderTalk (TT) Gaming +193 (+1.5 maps @ -167, -1.5 @ +470)

vs

BiliBili Gaming -256 (-1.5 maps @ +130, +1.5 @ -769)

 

 

Map ML Price: TT +153 / BLG -200

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +110 / under -141)

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -111 / under -118)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -109 / -5.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -103 / under -127)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

TT series moneyline @ +193 (strong)

TT +1.5 maps @ -167 (strong)

TT map moneyline @ +153 (moderate)

OVER 2.5 maps @ +110 (light)

 

Where you fall in terms of faith in BiliBili to regress up to their expectation is probably the most important part of your handicap on this series. They’ve certainly been a tough team to figure out. BLG have wins over RareAtom and RNG but also losses to OMG, V5, and LNG. They’ve been a VERY two-faced team this season and are coming into this contest losers of six of their past seven games and all three series against OMG, EDG and Invictus.

To me, the majority of BiliBili’s problems stem from a conflicted identity. They’re trying to stay versatile which I appreciate but because they’re spreading themselves thing, they haven’t really developed a “go-to” strategy that works for them. Last year it was Meteor on a tempo jungler like Olaf and pick priority lanes to play around him and snowball leads that way. This year they look like a team that wants to scale in some games and a team that wants to play early game in others. Their drafts have also been all over the place in terms of quality and clarity of intent.

TT have a very clear identity and a few talented players but they’ve struggled to consistently turn their advantages into wins. I tend to favor teams like TT the longer the season goes on because eventually these teams learn how to properly take advantage of a lead. The issue with TT is that they usually only have a purely pace-based lead and it’s not often an actual economy lead. They sell out for early objectives like herald to try to push the speed of the game. Sometimes it works, most of the time it doesn’t.

 

BiliBili Dominus
-393.1 Gold Diff @ 10 min -543.3
-905.8 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1420.6
-1410.9 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1448.6
-2.0 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 3.4
-52.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 -61.4
301.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 147.3
1782.5 Gold /min 1732.4
-23.6 Gold / min vs Avg -73.7
-43.8 Gold Diff / min -168.7
-0.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.3
1618.0 Kill Agnostic GPM 1591.2
-16.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -93.4
47.9 Dragon Control % 46.0
36.5 Herald Control % 61.7
50.0 Baron Control % 44.4

 

It’s worth considering motivations for these teams as well. TT aren’t technically eliminated but they’d need to go a perfect 6-0 to have a decent chance at a playoff spot and even then they’d need help so they’re all but eliminated while Bilibili sits at 4-6 with six remaining series to go something like 4-2 or 5-1 which is more realistic.

If you think BiliBili “get up” for this game then I could maybe see going against the numbers and just backing them on the moneyline here but I’d caution that TT, a team with nothing to lose, that’s been steadily improving can be a dangerous thing this time of yuear.

There’s just no way I can back BiliBili here with the inconsistency that they’ve shown. While I’m confident that they are better than they’ve been performing,  they just lack cohesion from top-to-bottom for me to have any kind of confidence in them. The question becomes whether or not this is worth a play on TT or not. We’ve seen this team punch up against similarly rated, arguably better squads like JDG, RareAtom, and Victory Five (debatable). I think the dogs are worth a small position here but I’ll mostly be attacking this in the prop market.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 24.858

Time-Implied: 26.754

Underdog Win: 24.129

“Gelati” Total Projection: 25.755 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 44.83% (BLG 48% / TT 41.67%)

Volatility Rating: BLG 0.28847 / TT 0.3620 (League Avg: 0.2986)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

TT team total UNDER 10.5 kills @ -106 (strong)

(alt) UNDER 27.5 kills @ -127 (moderate)

UNDER 26.5 @ -118 (very light)

BLG team total UNDER 15.5 kills @ -123 (miniscule)

 

This number feels fairly close to me. If anything I’d lean toward the under but as I’ve mentioned a bunch already, TT tend to jump out to leads and then throw it away which leads to longer games with higher kills where the enemy team needs to win a few team fights to close it which adds kills and minutes. I’ll mention below but this projects for an over time total and if we get the CKPM these two usually contribute the over might be worth a light play but I’m just going to pass.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 32.527 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 32.69 / 32.9

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 53.08% (BLG 52% / TT 54.17%)

Volatility Rating: BLG 0.16504 / TT 0.15350 (League Avg: 0.15805)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 32:00 @ -103 (light)

 

Over makes sense given the TT game script I’ve discussed a few times already. Not going to play it, this number is close enough.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

TT first herald @ +104 (VERY strong)

TT first tower @ +111 (strong)

OVER 1.5 barons @ +145 (moderate)

TT first dragon @ +103 (moderate)

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -189 (moderate)

UNDER 4.5 dragons @ +106 (miniscule)

 

TT first herald has been one of my favorite bets this season. They sell out for this objective almost every game and most teams just let them have it because they rely on them botching a lead since TT tend to struggle once the first few towers are down. BLG have not been a strong herald team like they were last season.

 

 

My Picks:

 

Map Spread: TT +1.5 maps @ -169 (1.69 units)

Moneyline: TT +193 (0.25 units)

Map Spread: TT -1.5 maps @ +470 (0.1 units)

Prop: Map 1 TT first herald @ +104 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 TT first herald @ +104 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 3 TT first herald @ +104 (1 unit)

 

 


Invictus Gaming +151 (+1.5 maps @ -208, -1.5 @ +402)

vs

TOP Esports -196 (-1.5 maps @ +160, +1.5 @ -625)

 

 

Map ML Price: IG +132 / TOP -169

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +103 / under -132)

Kill Total: 27.5 (over -114 / under -115)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ +101 / -4.5 @ -132

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 16.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +155 / under -204)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

TOP series moneyline @ -196 (strong)

TOP -1.5 maps @ +160 (strong)

TOP map moneyline @ -189 (moderate)

UNDER 2.5 maps @ -132 (miniscule)

TOP Esports are the #1 team in my model even though they’re only 6-3 through nine series played and they’re almost twice as good as #2. What makes them so special?

TOP Tale of the Tape Invictus
4013.6 Gold Diff @ 10 min 286.9
2065.7 Gold Diff @ 15 min -147.5
337.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -230.3
164.0 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 62.8
213.5 Gold Diff / min first 20 50.2
631.2 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 117.7
1950.6 Gold /min 1841.7
144.5 Gold / min vs Avg 35.6
259.6 Gold Diff / min 84.0
3.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.2
1689.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1615.9
147.1 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 50.1
62.5 Dragon Control % 59.8
68.4 Herald Control % 41.7
69.6 Baron Control % 65.5
12.0 Quality Wins? 9.0
92.3 % of wins as Quality 64.3

 

#1 in gold differential at 10, 15, and 20 (BY A MILE at 10 and 20)

#3 in gold differential post-20 minutes

#1 in dragon control, #3 in baron control, #6 in herald control

#1 in overall gold differential per minute, #2 in overall gold per minute

#3 in kill agnostic gold per minute, #1 in kill agnostic gold differential per minute

 

Now admittedly they’ve done this against a fairly soft schedule. Suning, RareAtom (without Leyan), and FunPlus have been their only challenging matches. Their other six were against Rogue Warriors, LGD, JDG, LNG, eStar, and OMG. So they’re probably not quite as good as their numbers suggest but they’ve been grinding teams to a pulp this season. They’ve also had the majority of the time since the holiday break as “easy” matches. I’d bet that TOP will be prepared and ready to play in the second half against the tougher part of their schedule and quite frankly it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see this team win out even against difficult competition. This team is really REALLY good.

As many of you know, I’m a bit of an Invictus fanboy and frequently back them when most won’t. After a turbulent few years when I first started handicapping, I’ve got a solid grasp on this wild bronco. This is exactly the kind of match that they win or are surprisingly competitive in. Invictus “play up” to their competition in a big way as we’ve already seen this season but they struggle with consistency. Invictus has had a few tough matches in the last two weeks with Suning and EDG. All TOP have had were relatively easy ones and like I mentioned, you can bet they had this on their calendar.

TOP are the play here. I don’t like it quite as much as the model does (78.1% / 21.9%) just because I think Invictus are probably better than their numbers and TOP are probably not quite as good as their numbers given their strength of schedule but I do think TOP take this series down.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 27.92

Time-Implied: 27.386

Underdog Win: 28.458

“Gelati” Total Projection: 27.172 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 48.68% (TOP 47.37% / IG 50%)

Volatility Rating: TOP 0.33507 / IG 0.31752 (League Avg: 0.2986)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

IG team total OVER 11.5 @ -112 (strong)*

(alt) UNDER 26.5 kills @ +104 (light)

TOP team total over 16.5 @ -127 (light)

 

IG team total over is a bit of an in-betweener. They do actually score decently well in losses at 8.96 kills per loss but this is more or less cooking in a lot of wins. I’ll be passing on the other kill total markets they look fairly sharp.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 29.54 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 30.22 / 30.23

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 20.94% (TOP 21.05% / IG 20.83%)

Volatility Rating: TOP 0.18075 / IG 0.15083 (League Avg: 0.15805)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 32:00 @ -204 (strong)

 

Obviously these two teams win and lose games extremely quickly and they’re both very potent snowballing teams. It feels a little weird to lay -204 on an under time total but VERY few of these teams wins AND losses have gone over this total (20.94% combined) which implies a good value here and I’m going to take it. If this turns into a slugfest I won’t be surprised but it’s tough to ignore that kind of value. 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

IG first dragon @ -111 (VERY strong)*

TOP first blood @ -132 (VERY strong)*

UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -104 (VERY strong)

TOP first tower @ -147 (VERY strong)

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -303 (strong)

TOP first dragon @ -128 (moderate)*

IG first blood @ +101 (moderate)*

TOP first herald @ -122 (light)

 

I *’d the stuff that both teams are good at meaning I’d need a substantial advantage on one side to justify a position.

TOP have been an “everything” team which is why they rate so highly in the objective model. They tend to just play against whatever the strength of their opponent is. Invictus have very much been a dragon control team. I’m going to pay up and play first tower for TOP and first dragon for Invictus here playing to this angle.

The unders in towers and dragons are overwhelmingly because of how quickly and decisively these teams tend to win games but I’ve already got plenty of exposure to those markets via the time total.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: TOP Esports -196 (1.96 units)

Map Spread: TOP -1.5 maps @ +160 (0.5 units)

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 32:00 @ -204 (2.04 units)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 32:00 @ -196 (1.96 units)

Time Total: Map 3 UNDER 32:00 @ -182 (1.82 units)

Prop: Map 1 IG first dragon @ -106 (1.06 units)

Prop: Map 2 IG first dragon @ -106 (1.06 units)

Prop: Map 3 IG first dragon @ -109 (1.09 units)

Prop: Map 1 TOP first tower @ -147 (1.47 units)

Prop: Map 2 TOP first tower @ -147 (1.47 units)

Prop: Map 3 TOP first tower @ -147 (1.47 units)

 

 


 

LOL Champions Korea

Week 7 – Day 4

 

 

DRX -312 (-1.5 maps @ +114, +1.5 @ -1111)

vs

Fredit Brion +232 (+1.5 maps @ -145, -1.5 @ +588)

 

 

Map ML Price: DRX -238 / BRO +182

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +117 / under -149)

Kill Total: 21.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -120 / +6.5 @ -109

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -149 / under +114)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

What’s interesting here is that both of these teams play a similar game, damage control for your scaling draft. DRX just happen to be a little better at it. Brion have had two absolutely tremendous performances this season one each against Gen.G and DAMWON where they quite literally looked like a completely different team. Outside of that they’ve been the worst team in the LCK by almost a full standard deviation below their peers. Their kill agnostic gold per minute of 1427 is the worst of any team in the LPL or LCK.

So let’s get this straight… Brion have an abysmally bad kill agnostic gold per minute AND the lowest combined kills per minute. Their overall gold per minute is Golden Guardians level. How in the hell did this team play four of the best games I’ve seen from any team this season and they’re just turn back into a pumpkin like this? I’ve quite literally never seen anything to this extreme… it’s baffling.

Brion could go full super saiyan here but more than likely I see them turning into their normal selves. DRX are not an impressive team by any stretch but they are slowly improving. They’re engineering their own advantages and not relying nearly as much on opponent error anymore.

What a strange world we live in that I’m now backing DRX as huge favorites but Brion are awful. Don’t let the two spike wins cloud your judgement.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 21.372

Time-Implied: 22.894

Underdog Win: 24.808

“Gelati” Total Projection: 22.35 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 53.24% (DRX 48.15% / BRO 58.33%)

Volatility Rating: DRX 0.34358 / BRO 0.31269 (League Avg: 0.3170)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

DRX team total UNDER 13.5 @ -115 (strong)

BRO team total OVER 8.5 @ -110 (strong)

(alt) OVER 20.5 kills @ -161 (light)

(alt) OVER 22.5 kills @ -102 (miniscule)

 

Just looking at the combined kills per minute and the kills per win/loss averages this number is just about right. Projections similar, frequency similar. Pass.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 33.165 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 33.61 / 33.57

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 60.88% (DRX 59.26% / BRO 62.5%)

Volatility Rating: DRX 0.14401 / BRO 0.16968 (League Avg: 0.15110)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 32:00 @ -149 (miniscule)

 

I’d like the over at a better price but DRX have also been upping the aggression level recently so I’m actually temped to take the under here. I’ll pass.

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 11.5 towers @ +101 (moderate)

BRO first blood @ +122 (light)

BRO first dragon @ -110 (light)

 

DRX are doing a sort of diet version… ok maybe like Diet Shasta or Diet (generic store brand here) version of what TOP are. They play against whatever their opponents do albeit not exactly well. They’re fluid. Brion are a dragon stacking team so I’d wager DRX take herald in this series but I’m not laying the juice on that. I will take Brion first dragon at -110 though.

 

My Picks:

 

(this moved in my favor while writing, liked it at the old number anyway)

Moneyline: DRX -303 (1.515 units)

Spread: DRX -1.5 maps @ +121 (0.25 units)

Prop: Map 1 Brion first dragon @ -110 (0.55 units)

Prop: Map 2 Brion first dragon @ -110 (0.55 units)

Prop: Map 3 Brion first dragon @ -110 (0.55 units)

 

 


Hanwha Life Esports +135 (+1.5 maps @ -244, -1.5 @ +363)

vs

Gen.G -172 (-1.5 maps @ +186, +1.5 @ -556)

 

 

Map ML Price: HLE +119 / GEG -152

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over -102 / under -125)

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -115 / under -114)

Kill Spread: +3.5 @ -109 / -3.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +109 / under -143)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Gen.G series moneyline @ -172 (light-moderate)

Gen.G -1.5 maps @ +186 (light-moderate)

Gen.G map moneyline @ -152 (moderate)

 

Gen.G lost to Sandbox and suddenly everyone is willing to erase the amazing season they’ve otherwise put together. This was -200 for Gen.G earlier this weekend and it’s shrunk all the way down to the current number. Feels like an overreaction to me.

GEG Tale of the Tape HLE
433.8 Gold Diff @ 10 min 585.3
592.6 Gold Diff @ 15 min 689.7
1148.4 Gold Diff @ 20 min 747.0
1920.0 GPM first 20 min 1770.0
78.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 28.0
432.2 Gold Diff / min ROG 171.8
1893.0 Gold /min 1847.0
30.0 Gold / min vs Avg 29.0
186.2 Gold Diff / min 67.2
2.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.9
1783.2 Kill Agnostic GPM 1534.8
198.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -182.0
51.1 Dragon Control % 57.1
76.8 Herald Control % 49.1
71.1 Baron Control % 51.2

 

Gen.G are a better team, they’re more consistent, what they do is more repeatable, and they’re more complete top-to-bottom. They just had a bad series and by the way Sandbox isn’t nearly as bad as public perception of them. Gen.G are the side here.  The model has them as the best team in the LCK currently but I like them even more in this spot with a few of the above numbers in consideration as well as overall film.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 24.916

Time-Implied: 25.626

Underdog Win: 23.316

“Gelati” Total Projection: 25.584 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 47.64% (GEG 36.67% / HLE 58.62%)

Volatility Rating: GEG 0.31399 / HLE 0.29196 (League Avg: 0.3170)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

HLE team total OVER 11.5 @ -105 (strong)

 

The model does account for wins and losses but still Hanwha’s numbers are almost all ridiculous for kills. I’m not sure Gen.G are going to play their game. They’re going to try to slow the games and grind them to a halt. How aggressive HLE plays this is tough to judge. I’m passing.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 32.116 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 32.09 / 32.1

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 38.965% (GEG 40% / HLE 37.93%)

Volatility Rating: GEG 0.16367 / HLE 0.10023 (League Avg: 0.1511)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 33:00 @ -143 (light)

 

Game script could go a number of ways. Pass.

 

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

GEG first blood @ -145 (strong)

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -116 (strong)

GEG first tower @ -137 (strong)*

HLE first tower @ +101 (moderate)

UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -118 (moderate)

UNDER 1.5 barons @ -185 (light)

 

I’m going to pass on most of the firsts because these teams are both pretty good across the board but you NEVER see under 12.5 towers this low ever. I don’t care how competitive you think this series is going to be a huge portion of games go under this total even in the LCK regardless of matchup.

 

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: Gen.G -172 (1.72 units)

Map Spread: Gen.G -1.5 maps @ +186 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -118 (1.18 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -123 (1.23 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -130 (1.3 units)

 

 

 


LOL Championship Series (LCS)

Week 5 – Day 3

 

 

 

100 Thieves -400 vs Golden Guardians +287

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -110 / under -119)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -105 / +8.5 @ -123

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 7.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -125 / under -104)

 

100 Thieves have now dropped three in a row albeit to tougher competition in TSM, Evil Geniuses, and Cloud 9. They look really out of sorts at the moment and I’m not entirely sure what’s going on with this team. I don’t want to throw any shade at Ryoma since he hasn’t really done anything egregiously bad but without Damonte 100 Thieves look a little directionless in these games. Just speculation.

Golden Guardians a slowly but surely improving but they’re still very raw and quite frankly lacking in the talent department. I do think that eventually this team is going to get to such bottom of the barrel prices and will eventually exceed their price in quality but I’m not sure if that’s going to happen before the “playoff” (they’re not playoffs…) break.

I’d say GGS is just what the doctor ordered to get out of this funk for 100 Thieves but it has to be looming in the back of their head that they somehow lost to this team a couple weeks back. I want no part of this match. 100 Thieves should stomp against weaker competition but this team is in such a weird psychological state right now that I want no parts of it. If I had to bet this game I’d take GGS +8.5 kills or 100 Thieves first tower.

My Picks:

no wagers

 


Evil Geniuses -145 vs Dignitas +114

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -125 / under -104)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -118 / +4.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +118 / under -154)

How weird is it that we’re calling Dignitas a consistent team? They are. Evil Geniuses certainly aren’t…

The way I’ve been playing Evil Geniuses this split, as many of you know, is to fade them as big favorites because they beat themselves, like they did yesterday, and to back them as short favorites or dogs. This would qualify for the latter but I actually think these two teams are fairly evenly matched at the moment and I’m just going to take the plus money. I think Dignitas have been a more consistent team on a game-to-game basis and know what to expect from them while Evil Geniuses are all over the place.

This is a fairly high kill total but the over is a nice play here. EG are averaging about 28.5 kills per game and Dignitas 25.8. 50% of Dignitas’ games have gone over this total (not counting a few 25’s) but only 28.6% of EG’s games have gone under this total in wins or losses.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Dignitas +114 (1 unit)

Kill Total: OVER 25.5 @ -125 (1.25 units)

 


Cloud 9 -169 vs Team Solo Mid +132

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -114 / +5.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +123 / under -161)

 

The last time these two teams played was in week one and TSM weren’t the same team they are today.  TSM are much improved and look to me like the definitive #3 in the league at the moment sort of in their own tier ahead of teams like Dignitas, 100 Thieves, and Evil Geniuses. I backed Liquid at +112 against Cloud 9 yesterday but I also think Liquid is about even or better than Cloud 9 is. That said, TSM are maybe a half-tier to a tier below those two by my evaluation and I’m less interested in backing them in a spot like this.

This feels like a cheap number on Cloud 9 but I make this at about current market price so I’m just going to pass. If I had to take a side it’d be Cloud 9.

Originally I liked the kill total over in this contest. The only scary part about backing overs in Cloud 9 games is that they’re such a strong snowballing team that they sometimes just run teams over in 25 minute wins regardless of quality but I think if that doesn’t happen here then we’re in for a battle and 24.5 is very low for a team that’s gone over that total in just half their games.  After looking into it some more they’ve gone over this total in just half their games and TSM in far fewer games. I’ll just pass this altogether.

 

My Picks:

no wagers

 


Counter Logic Gaming (CLG) +396 vs Team Liquid -625

 

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -123 / under -105)

Kill Spread: +9.5 @ -127 / -9.5 @ -102

Team Kill Totals: 6.5 / 16.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -115 / under -114)

 

CLG buried themselves early in yesterday’s contest against FlyQuest but did look good on Friday night against Immortals. As I’ve said many times at this point, I think this team of experienced veterans is going to be sneaky good once they get some more time to gel. Spots like this and at these prices are exactly the situations you’re going to want down the road. The question is do we want it right now?

Liquid just beat Cloud 9 and are rounding into form as they continue to clean things up. I think they’re probably going to end up being the best team in the league but one thing they haven’t done well is perform against the spread, especially as big favorites. Liquid are just 4-8 against the kill spread as favorites this season. As favorites of 8.5 kills or more they’ve only covered in 3 out of 7 attempts (two of which were against GGS). Part of the reason for this is the low kill totals in their games. Similar to an NFL game with a low game total and a high spread, there’s a very small margin for error for the favorites to cover. If they’re only going to be 22 or 23 kills in this game Liquid more or less have to get to 16 or 17 on their own to cover in most situations unless you think they’re going to come close to a shutout.

Last time this was an 18-2 win for Liquid so that’s one of the few outcomes where they would have covered here. Generally though, high spreads, low total, take the points as long as the other team is competent.

 

My Picks: 

Kill Spread: CLG +9.5 kills @ -127 (1.27 units)

Prop: UNDER 12.5 towers @ -189 (1.89 units)

 


FlyQuest -152 vs Immortals +119

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -118 / under -111)

Kill Spread: -2.5 @ -111 / +2.5 @ -118

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 34:00 (over +171 / under -227)

 

The last time these two squared off it was an almost forty minute slugfest that Immortals took down.

Simply put, in these bottom-of-the-table matchups I’m probably just going to be taking the underdog unless it’s Golden Guardians. None of these teams are consistent enough to warrant laying really any kind of price that strays far from even money. Both of these squads are coming off of wins yesterday, FlyQuest against CLG and Immortals against Evil Geniuses and they both looked pretty good in the process. These teams are essentially the same except Immortals tend to be more of a herald team and FlyQuest, a dragon team. I like that angle. I the plus money over time total and over kill totals here as well. If you look at most of the games between the bottom half teams they tend to be long, bloody affairs in the LCS because nobody knows how to correctly close a game with a lead on a consistent basis and I like attacking that angle.

Lot of action on this one which is a little weird but when there is an advantageous position I’m taking it.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Immortals +119 (1 unit)

Time Total: OVER 34:00 @ +171 (1 unit)

Kill Total: OVER 23.5 @ -118 (1.18 units)

Prop: Immortals first herald @ -122 (0.61 units)

Prop: FlyQuest first dragon @ -130 (0.65 units)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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