Saturday, March 20th Recap

 

FunPlus Phoenix vs Victory Five (Net: no action)

This was a very on-brand series from Victory Five and something that’s been sorely lacking from their most recent few weeks. It’s a shame it took this long for them to get back to their tried-and-true early game aggression although we did see hints of it in the last series.

V5 steamrolled game one with a great Neeko selection to punish the melee mids that Doinb favors like Sett.

Game two was a more contested early game that V5 were pulling ahead in and then completely blew out to a 5k gold lead before a weird throw at the first baron allowed FPX to close the lead nearly back to zero. FPX aggressively tried to push to end the game on that baron power play but overstayed just a little too much as V5 managed to pull off a base defense. V5 would win the fight at the setup for infernal soul, pick up the infernal soul, and eventually close the game off of it.

As weird as it sounds, I’m not going to hold this series too much against FPX because this is what Victory Five does when they’re playing what they’re comfortable on. The problem with V5 is that they haven’t been doing that in recent weeks for whatever reason. There were a few really close skirmishes in this series that could have gone either way, particularly early in game two but V5 came out better in almost all of them.

I can’t help but think FPX were just sort of coasting in this series. You know Mole is an aggressive counterpicking player and he’s showed us the Neeko before. Perhaps it was an oversight by FPX or maybe they just didn’t care but it felt like we had a few odd looking drafts to me whether that was intentionally hiding stuff, lack of preparation, or trying to force a pick to maybe earn some ban equity in playoffs. Whatever the case this was a bit of a weird one but don’t overreact to this series. Langx had his pop off match. He has a few of these every season, V5 had their backs against the wall here and rallied with a return to their bread-and-butter. FPX weren’t without motivation either but I wouldn’t put too much stock into this series.

TOP vs Royal Never Give Up (Net: -9.68 units)

This was a really high level series. RNG had the better scaling in game one and managed to keep it even and eventually outscale. Game two it looked like TOP were in full control and we were heading for a game three before an errant engage by 369 at the first baron created a disjointed fight that resulted in an RNG win and baron which was a massive swing in momentum. The rest of the game was very close and RNG eventually won out.

I don’t know if it was a miscommunication or what but one of the bad things about Sion is that you can kind of just ignore him if you have the tools to dive and he doesn’t peel back quite as well as some other tanks do. If you expose your backline it’s going to get killed by divers most of the time. To me this just looked like a split call OR 369 just being a second or two too early on pulling the trigger as the baron was not going down as quickly as he maybe thought.

It’s a real bummer we didn’t get a third game in this series but c’est la vie. This was a potential grand finals preview and I still think that’s very likely to happen even with a stacked bracket. I’d argue these are the two best teams in the LPL, RNG were just better today.

Sometimes when you get series between two juggernauts like this it’s just a matter of who makes the hero plays in a game. Ming had an absolutely ridiculous performance in this match and in my opinion was the MVP of both games without question. He was incredibly disruptive and found every single engage and disengage exactly in the manner it had to happen. He was borderline perfect.  Great players make great plays sometimes and his Rell/Alistar were utterly ridiculous.

In terms of betting this series… ooof just a straight up whiff on everything we played. Series did not go the way I thought it would at all. Brutal.

 

Gen.G vs KT Rolster (Net: -1.815 units)

Gen.G were sleepwalking through this first game. Bdd had absolutely zero clue that Gideon could even be where he was for the first gank and was WAY overextended with zero mana trying to get the wave reset (which would have happened regardless). Just take the recall my dude… I knew right then and there that Gen.G were somewhat checked out for this series.

For those wondering, the Neeko pick has been picking up steam as a multi-role flex (on hit ADC, top, mid and support with Kalista). There’s a lot of sweet draft stuff you can do with it but it was a little weird to take it in this spot in the draft. Gen.G clearly trying to represent something for playoffs and/or get some stage experience with it.

KT perfect gamed the first… yea I know…  but then Gen.G essentially did the same thing in game two.

Game three was a great start for KT who picked up two early kills on Tristana (getting tired of that sentence yet?). It was looking like KT were in control of the game before they lost a fight prepping for the first baron, Gen.G flipped it into the baron and a few kills afterward as KT fell apart and the game ended rather suddenly.

Gen.G need to get out of this habit of sleepwalking through game ones. It’s been something that’s come up a few times this season, particularly against weaker competition. I don’t know if they’re just checked out or what but it doesn’t seem to be a problem against the good teams so I don’t know what else to think of it. Unfortunately for KT Rolster this was a massive blow to their playoff chances and losing after being up a perfect game on Gen.G had to have been super tilting. They move to 5-11 with only two matches left against Nongshim and DAMWON. If they win the Nongshim match their chances are still decent as they’d hold that head to head and conquer the game differential gap between the two but Sandbox are also surging. Next week is going to be wild.

Liiv Sandbox vs Fredit Brion (Net: +2.4475 units)

 

Sandbox brought it back from a small deficit in game one after a great start from Brion and then completely stomped in game two.

On one hand it’s really frustrating seeing a team that you know is much better than their record not put it together until it’s potentially too late but it’s also validating knowing that what you were seeing wasn’t a hallucination. Sandbox look to me like the clear #6 team and the most deserving of a playoff spot right now but whether that happens is still up to how they perform next week (as well as their competitors).

 

Team Solo Mid vs Team Liquid (Net: no action)

I legitimately thought this should have been at the bare minimum 2-1 in favor of TSM after the first three games. I’d even argue for 3-0 after the tremendous tempo disruption Huni caused in game two on Rumble stopping multiple recalls and allowing a potential double scuttle+ drake swing.

Game one was an utter clown fiesta with about five separate throws between both teams. I don’t know if it was nerves or what but it was an absolute mess. TSM lost this one for themselves on multiple occasions. Game two I mentioned above before things went completely sour shortly afterward. Game three TSM managed to take with their Seraphine composition. I admired the confidence of running back a similar game plan in the draft and not tilting off based on the results of the first two games. They knew they just needed to play cleaner. Game four I think could have been another TSM win but Liquid just got too much of a gold lead off the back of a weird corner that TSM pinned themselves in the draft. Huni had to play a weak side top instead of countering Gnar because of the Twisted Fate by Jensen but they also needed some damage differentiation because of Seraphine so full AP Gragas was the choice. The problem with it is that it’s squishy and they just picked on Huni over and over and over again. There wasn’t much he could do.

In the game four situation I would have said screw damage differentiation just based on the situation. Twisted Fate and put my eggs in the lost basket but I can understand why TSM didn’t want to do this. The question you need to ask is whether you can even get to the point where that matters if your top lane is just going to be bullied. I sincerely felt for Huni in this situation. There was absolutely nothing he could do.

Ultimately this was TSM’s series to lose, at least in my opinion, and they managed to do it through multiple throws in the first two games an backing themselves into a corner in the game four draft. This legitimately could have been a 3-0 or at least should have been a 2-1 and maybe go to a game five after game four.

I’m glad I didn’t have any positions pre-game in this one and I ended up not playing anything live either.

 

LPL Net Total: -9.68 units (ouch)

LCK Net Total: +0.6325 units

LCS Net Total: no action

 

Daily Net Total: -9.0475 units

 

Current Week (???): pending

 


 

LOL Pro League (China)

Week 9 – Day 6

 

 

JD Gaming -1667 (-1.5 maps @ -294)

vs

LGD Gaming +740 (+1.5 maps @ +216, -1.5 @ +1800)

 

 

Map ML Price: JDG -714 / LGD +458

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +250 / under -345)

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -118 / under -110)

Kill Spread: -9.5 @ -127 / +9.5 @ -102

Team Kill Totals: 17.5 / 7.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over +108 / under -141)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

JDG Tale of the Tape LGD
548.2 Gold Diff @ 10 min -447.4
1217.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min -775.6
1942.3 Gold Diff @ 20 min -677.1
55.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -140.9
50.4 Gold Diff / min first 20 -99.6
385.0 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 449.2
1860.2 Gold /min 1708.8
54.7 Gold / min vs Avg -96.7
89.8 Gold Diff / min -166.1
1.2 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.3
1646.2 Kill Agnostic GPM 1567.5
58.4 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -99.2
-8.0 Win-Adjusted GPM -74.9
-39.7 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -91.1
53.3 Dragon Control % 47.5
47.4 Herald Control % 32.3
50.0 Baron Control % 36.6
10.0 Quality Wins? 4.0
50.0 % of wins as Quality 36.4

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

LGD +1.5 maps @ +216 (VERY strong)

OVER 2.5 maps @ +250 (VERY strong)

LGD map moneyline @ +458 (VERY strong)

LGD series moneyline @ +740 (strong)

 

*Garvey is starting for LGD. Hilarious podcast episode title considering the circumstances.

 

My model has not liked JDG even though it factors in trending performance and other factors. Obviously JDG look like a completely different team in the past few weeks. They look more like the 2020 Worlds representative version. We have to keep that in mind here.

I think JDG are going to steamroll this series but it’s pretty tough to ignore the price we’re getting for LGD here. I’ll take a small “hold your nose” position on LGD and as I’ll mention later on in the kills model section, I’ll be taking the kill spreads.

 

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 25.968

Time-Implied: 26.855

Underdog Win: 26.729

“Gelati” Total Projection: 26.757 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 55.34% (JDG 65.52% / LGD 45.16%)

Volatility Rating: JDG 0.28885 / LGD 0.31025 (League Avg: 0.302)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

(alt) OVER 25.5 @ -105 (light)

OVER 24.5 @ -118 (very light)

—-

Team Totals:

LGD team total OVER 7.5 kills @ -104 (moderate-strong)

JDG team total UNDER 17.5 @ -123 (miniscule)

 

Combined Kills / game 28.586 26.080
Combined Kills / min 0.921 0.805
Kills per win 19.069 17.969
Kills per loss 8.760 6.744
Deaths per win 9.75 8.73

(JDG left, LGD right)

 

 

 

I like the kill spread when we have a low total, favorite under, and strong underdog over suggested.

 

 

 

JDG LGD
Avg Margin of Victory (aMOV) 9.5375 8.585
Avg Margin of Defeat (aMOD) 11.740 10.5375

 

It feels bad because JDG have been utterly smoking people but I think you just need to hold your nose and take LGD kill spreads.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 31.117 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 30.79 / 30.96

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 51.67% (JDG 51.72% / LGD 51.61%)

Volatility Rating: JDG 0.178583 / LGD 0.18287 (League Avg: 0.16106)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 30:00 @ +108 (moderate-light)

 

JDG LGD
Average Game Time 31.57 30.66
Avg Game Time (in wins) 32.57 34.52
Avg Game Time (in losses) 29.363 28.536

 

Everything points to an over here but LGD have been horrid in the early game and recently JDG have just been completely running teams over. I’m not messing with this. Just too much likelihood of a JDG steamroll.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

LGD first dragon @ +104 (VERY strong)

OVER 1.5 barons @ +190 (strong)

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -233 (light)

OVER 4.5 dragons @ +102 (light)

 

LGD have been a team that hard commits to getting the dragon snowball rolling and scaling for the four drake win condition. Whether or not you think JDG challenge that or not is the only real question here. I’ll be taking LGD first dragon.

For the other markets here it depends on how you think the game script goes. IF you like the time total over the 1.5 barons and 4.5 dragons overs are excellent, better priced alternatives to a similar bet. I personally think LGD’s poor early game could be an issue here and I’m not messing with JDG. I’ll take the under 12.5 towers though.

 

My Picks:

 

Map Spread: LGD +1.5 maps @ +220 (0.5 units)

Moneyline: LGD +758 (0.25 units)

Map Spread: LGD -1.5 maps @ +1900 (0.1 units)

Kill Spread: Map 1 LGD +9.5 @ -102 (1.02 units)

Kill Spread: Map 2 LGD +10.5 @ -127 (1.27 units)

Kill Spread: Map 3 LGD +9.5 @ -128 (1.28 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -233 (2.33 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -227 (2.27 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -208 (2.08 units)

Prop: Map 1 LGD first dragon @ +104 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 LGD first dragon @ +105 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 3 LGD first dragon @ -102 (0.51 units) 

 

 


LNG Esports +355 (+1.5 maps @ +131, -1.5 @ +1012)

vs

Suning Gaming -526 (-1.5 maps @ -169, +1.5 @ -3333)

 

 

Map ML Price: LNG +222 / SN -303

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +182 / under -238)

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -119 / under -109)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -120 / -7.5 @ -108

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -114 / under -114)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

Suning Tale of the Tape LNG
423.2 Gold Diff @ 10 min -244.2
612.1 Gold Diff @ 15 min -488.1
1563.9 Gold Diff @ 20 min -933.9
-41.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 0.4
42.6 Gold Diff / min first 20 -23.1
555.6 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 374.9
1827.5 Gold /min 1782.0
22.0 Gold / min vs Avg -23.6
92.1 Gold Diff / min -32.3
1.3 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.4
1630.0 Kill Agnostic GPM 1610.4
39.4 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -35.7
-12.4 Win-Adjusted GPM 3.7
12.8 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 55.1
49.6 Dragon Control % 48.9
62.7 Herald Control % 41.0
52.8 Baron Control % 33.3
9.0 Quality Wins? 7.0
60.0 % of wins as Quality 50.0

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

LNG +1.5 maps @ +131 (VERY strong)

OVER 2.5 maps @ +182 ((strong)

LNG series moneyline @ +355 (moderate-strong)

LNG map moneyline @ +222 (moderate)

 

Suning and JDG both seem to have recovered from their Worlds hangover and are playing some of the best LOL I’ve seen them play in awhile. Suning specifically look almost better than they did going into the World Championships last year. They’ve been remarkably clean. The question is do we trust that? Suning absolutely steamrolled through the “easy” part of their schedule whooping on RW, V5, TT, and even IG in four of their past five matches. Team WE brought them back down to earth though.

In some ways these teams are similar in that they seem to struggle against the top of the table but Suning have shown us some flashes against good teams which I think gives people a lot of hope but they’re almost certainly coming into this match at least a little bit overrated despite their squeaky clean performances of late.

We’ve seen that LNG struggle mightily with the elite teams but the numbers we’re getting on them just seem a little ridiculous to me. This is a competent team folks. This isn’t Rogue Warriors or OMG. There are real players here and just because they don’t seem to be able to hack it against the good teams doesn’t mean we can’t pick our spots. At some point it’s just too far in the other direction. Suning have been the better team no doubt but this price seems a little ridiculous to me and with both teams fighting for their playoff spots you can bet that this will be a hotly contested matchup.

There’s just too much value on LNG to ignore here. Suning and LNG grade out as essentially the same level of team if we filter out their matches against the top teams in which both have performed poorly. There’s just no way there’s this much of a gap between these two. In fact, LNG actually have a better win-adjusted gold per minute and gold differential per minute. This should be closer to even money. Maybe like a -140 / +110 type of price. This is absurd.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 24.819

Time-Implied: 26.878

Underdog Win: 27.616

“Gelati” Total Projection: 25.938 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 51.25% (SN 44.44% / LNG 58.06%)

Volatility Rating:  SN 0.38768 / LNG 0.2849 (League Avg: 0.302)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

—-

Team Totals:

SN team total UNDER 15.5 @ -128 (strong)

LNG team total OVER 8.5 @ -106 (strong)

Combined Kills / game 27.163 24.553
Combined Kills / min 0.866 0.833
Kills per win 16.748 17.022
Kills per loss 10.594 6.915
Deaths per win 6.67 5.00

(SN left, LNG right)

I like the LNG kill spreads a lot here. Anytime we get suggestions on the under for the favorite and over on the underdog and a lower total I’m going to like the kill spreads if they’re more than 7.  The game total over isn’t a bad spot here either but it’s close enough and Suning volatile enough that I’m just going to stay on the spreads.

 

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 31.655 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 31.44 / 31.53

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 38.59% (SN 48.15% / LNG 29.03%)

Volatility Rating: SN 0.18016 / LNG 0.14365 (Leauge Avg: 0.16106)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 32:00 @ -114 (strong)

 

SN LNG
Average Game Time 32.44 30.87
Avg Game Time (in wins) 29.94 29.42
Avg Game Time (in losses) 35.569 32.057

 

I like the under here but I’m going to pass. There’s A LOT on the line for this match and I could see these teams being a bit more cautious than usual.


Other Derivatives
:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -323 (strong)

LNG first tower @ +123 (strong)

LNG first blood @ +118 (light)*

LNG first herald @ +100 (light)*

 

With the under time total suggested, both teams steamrolling wins, the under tower total makes sense but I’m already indexed quite a bit into game scripts for this match so I’m just going to abstain on the prop markets.

 

My Picks:

 

Map Spread: LNG +1.5 maps @ +141 (1 unit)

Moneyline: LNG +378 (0.5 units)

Map Spread: LNG -1.5 maps @ +1012 (0.25 units)

Kill Spread: LNG +7.5 @ -114 (1.14 units)

Kill Spread: LNG +7.5 @ -120 (1.2 units)

Kill Spread: LNG +7.5 @ -127 (1.27 units)

 

 


LOL Champions Korea (LCK)

Week 9 – Day 4

 

 

DRX +269 (+1.5 maps @ -118, -1.5 @ +776)

vs

DAMWON Kia Gaming -385 (-1.5 maps @ -108)

 

 

Map ML Price: DRX +224 / DWG -303

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +126 / under -161)

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -108 / under -120)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -116 / -7.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -114 / under -114)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

DWG Tale of the Tape DRX
655.3 Gold Diff @ 10 min -354.9
1272.4 Gold Diff @ 15 min -223.7
1018.9 Gold Diff @ 20 min 221.5
49.9 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -61.4
73.8 Gold Diff / min first 20 -36.6
185.2 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -20.6
1901.9 Gold /min 1784.1
111.6 Gold / min vs Avg -6.2
185.2 Gold Diff / min 1.6
2.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.0
1688.8 Kill Agnostic GPM 1637.0
120.9 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 16.4
-4.4 Win-Adjusted GPM -39.1
66.3 Dragon Control % 42.5
63.2 Herald Control % 33.8
79.2 Baron Control % 53.7
9.0 Quality Wins? 3.0
33.3 % of wins as Quality 15.0

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

*** see below

 

So currently there’s a decent chance ShowMaker will not be playing in this series.

DAMWON released a statement (translated by Ashley Kang) stating that ShowMaker’s hands and arms have been “shaking violently” and that he’s been “experiencing this symptom for several days and today visited the hospital to conduct checkups and physiotherapy.”

First of all, I hope he gets well. You always hate to see this kind of thing but years and years of constant grinding can do damage. Hopefully it’s nothing too serious.

Second, how does this impact DAMWON and their chances here?

DAMWON have already secured the #1 seed so there’s no reason to force him to play if there is a serious health issue going on here. I think there is a VERY STRONG chance we see either RangJun or Jool fill in for this series and possibly another just in case this becomes a chronic or recurring issue.

With ShowMaker playing the model made this series roughly -762 / +468 in favor of DAMWON which would represent a moderate to strong edge on the market price by implied probability. The question becomes which adjustments and how much of an adjustment we want to make here.

ShowMaker is an integral part of what makes DAMWON tick. His incredible laning and versatility allows Canyon and BeryL to do things they normally couldn’t get away with. He currently ranks #2 overall amongst mid laners in my individual player model ranking #2 in vision score per minute, #3 in both gold and CS differentials at 15 minutes, and #3 in damage per gold per minute. This is clearly a massive loss but just how much do we want to downgrade DAMWON.

Historically, almost all substitutions are severely overreacted to by the public and in the betting markets. A lot of times teams “play up” with a substitute in just like the famous backup quarterback narrative. I tend to buy low and “fade the public” in these types of situations most of the time. This one is a little more interesting than normal though because theoretically DRX are still playing for something (the #3 seed, possibly #2). Unless we think DRX is content with just making playoffs you’d think we have a motivational advantage for DRX.

I’m not going to try to hit on motivational angles because you could talk yourself into any number of them. I’m going to handicap this series by adjusting DAMWON downward by 10%. You could make an argument that this is a bigger gap than that because of the disruption to synergistic aspects of the team and what not but the way DAMWON are playing this season lends itself much more to a plug and play approach than the highly execution based version before. I think 10-20% is adequate.

Prior to this adjustment there was a moderate advantage on DAMWON. Post adjustment this is roughly on market with a small edge on DRX +1.5 maps @ -118.

I won’t be taking a position in this match. If you can find a better number than this on DRX you could take it and then potentially come back with a middle if it’s announced that ShowMaker is going to play or perhaps in-series if DAMWON go down a game or something along those lines.

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 26.912

Time-Implied: 26.481

Underdog Win: 26.45

“Gelati” Total Projection: 26.352 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 44.14% (DWG 51.43% / DRX 36.84%)

Volatility Rating:  DWG 0.3031 / DRX 0.36237 (League Avg: 0.3083)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

(alt) UNDER 24.5 @ -105 (light)

UNDER 25.5 @ -120 (light)

(alt) UNDER 26.5 @ -147 (very light)

—-

Team Totals:

DRX team total OVER 9.5 kills @ -101 (strong)

 

Combined Kills / game 27.654 23.604
Combined Kills / min 0.857 0.710
Kills per win 18.841 15.638
Kills per loss 10.813 8.260
Deaths per win 9.93 7.20

(DWG left, DRX right)

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 33.803 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 33.78 / 33.58

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 61.47% (DWG 57.14% / DRX 65.79%)

Volatility Rating: DWG 0.19452 / DRX 0.16262 (League Avg: 0.15609)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 32:00 @ -114 (strong)

DWG DRX
Average Game Time 33.91 33.70
Avg Game Time (in wins) 32.39 34.57
Avg Game Time (in losses) 39.058 32.722

I absolutely love this over for a few reasons. First, while DRX have been showing uptempo looks from time to time in recent matches, they’re still very much a scale up type of team. DAMWON are very similar. Second, when you have a substitution you’re more likely to play things slow. Keep the game digestible for the new guy, play it as simply as possible. I already liked the over with the full lineups and it’s even better now.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 1.5 barons @ +171 (VERY strong)

OVER 11.5 towers @ +110 (VERY strong)

OVER 12.5 towers @ +186 (strong)

OVER 4.5 dragons @ -101 (strong)

DRX first tower @ +134 (light)

 

I’m going to double down on the time total/longer game narrative and hit all of these plus money markets on the over neutrals. I like all of these A LOT even with the full DAMWON lineup as they offer tremendous value. With the sub in potentially even more.

 

My Picks:

 

Time Total: Map 1 OVER 32:00 @ -114 (1.14 units)

Time Total: Map 2 OVER 32:00 @ -114 (1.14 units)

Time Total: Map 3 OVER 32:00 @ -114 (1.14 units)

Prop: Map 1 OVER 11.5 towers @ +110 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 1 OVER 12.5 towers @ +186 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 1 OVER 1.5 barons @ +171 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 OVER 11.5 towers @ +110 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 OVER 12.5 towers @ +185 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 OVER 1.5 barons @ +171 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 3 OVER 12.5 towers @ +173 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 3 OVER 1.5 barons @ +162 (0.5 units)

 

 


T1 -556 (-1.5 maps @ -167)

vs

Afreeca Freecs +371 (+1.5 maps @ +128, -1.5 @ +919)

 

 

Map ML Price: T1 -345 / AF +252

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +162 / under -208)

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -104 / under -125)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -118 / +7.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 7.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -102 / under -127)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

T1 Tale of the Tape AF
632.6 Gold Diff @ 10 min -490.8
1508.8 Gold Diff @ 15 min -80.5
954.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -280.9
54.8 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -5.4
91.7 Gold Diff / min first 20 -4.9
85.1 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -256.7
1822.7 Gold /min 1734.1
32.4 Gold / min vs Avg -56.2
74.8 Gold Diff / min -88.8
1.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -1.2
1644.8 Kill Agnostic GPM 1581.8
49.8 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -59.4
51.0 Win-Adjusted GPM -13.2
53.0 Dragon Control % 49.4
52.1 Herald Control % 65.2
50.0 Baron Control % 38.3
15.0 Quality Wins? 6.0
71.4 % of wins as Quality 46.2

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

AF +1.5 maps @ +128 (moderate-strong)

OVER 2.5 maps @ +162 (moderate)

AF map moneyline @ +252 (light)

AF series moneyline @ +371 (very light)

 

Is this the buy low spot for Afreeca? Because of how things have shaken out in the bottom half, they’re technically not eliminated from playoffs but I have to say, the way in which they lost that match yesterday was straight up embarrassing and I could definitely see it being a pure tilter.

Qualitatively, Afreeca are horrible after the first ten minutes of the game. They look like they’re playing solo queue. I don’t know what’s going on or if this coaching staff has done a terrible job but these players seem to lose focus as the game goes on. Afreeca play like a team full of rookies not very experienced veterans. It’s just frustrating to watch because this team SHUOLD be good but they just aren’t right now.

I could see Afreeca jumping out to a lead in this series but honestly with how sloppy they’ve been I have absolutely no faith that they’ll do anything useful with that lead, especially against the veteran lineup for T1 who know exactly how to stabilize a game. Without an Afreeca lead? Forget it.

There’s a possibility we see T1 march out the young kids again but I have a feeling that we MIGHT just be seeing this version for the rest of the season. Then again, anytime we think we’ve solved that puzzle T1 prove us wrong. Keep an eye out for the lineups before game time. If Clozer is in then I like Afreeca and kill total overs in this series.

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 28.7

Time-Implied: 25.09

Underdog Win: 22.882

“Gelati” Total Projection: 26.223 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 50.04% (T1 48.64% / AF51.43%)

Volatility Rating:  T1 0.3109 / AF 0.29552 (League Avg: 0.3083)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

—-

Team Totals:

AF team total OVER 8.5 @ +101 (VERY strong)

T1 team total UNDER 15.5 @ -125 (moderate-light)

 

Combined Kills / game 24.610 25.694
Combined Kills / min 0.729 0.778
Kills per win 17.619 15.726
Kills per loss 7.156 13.213
Deaths per win 7.38 8.15

(T1 left, AF right)

Usually when I see a low total, under suggestions for the favorite, and strong over suggestions for the underdog, and a mid to large sized spread I take the kills. The catch here is that T1 have an average margin of victory of 10.55 kills and Afreeca and average margin of defeat of 9.2 kills. The spread is 7.5 which is right on the cusp. I’ll pass.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 33.311 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 33.25 / 33.27

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 52.82% (T1 51.35% / AF 54.29%)

Volatility Rating: T1 0.14736 / AF 0.15489 (League Avg: 0.15609)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 33:00 @ -102 (light)

 

T1 AF
Average Game Time 32.95 33.67
Avg Game Time (in wins) 32.86 34.17
Avg Game Time (in losses) 33.067 33.380

 

T1 have looked much sharper but still not in any particular rush with #TeamOldGuys lineup. Afreeca have also made a habit of jumping out to leads and then throwing them, which often takes time. That said, this is a high total and the projections make this fairly close as well. I’ll be passing on this total, I’d actually lean under if I had to choose.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

AF first blood @ +102 (VERY strong)*

AF first herald @ +109 (VERY strong)*

AF first tower @ +162 (VERY strong)*

AF first dragon @ -102 (moderate)

OVER 1.5 barons @ +167 (moderate)

OVER 4.5 dragons @ +100 (light)

 

Lots of options to choose from here. Given the fast start Afreeca have had in games it makes a lot of sense to hold your nose and just take a shot at a few of these. My concern here is that T1 are extremely clean with this iteration of the lineup and I’m not entirely sure they’ll make a lot of the same mistakes early that other teams do. They’re also quite good in most of these categories themselves. I’ll play the over 1.5 barons though. Price is nice.

 

My Picks:

If same lineup as last time (Canna, Cuzz, Faker, Teddy, Keria):

 

Map Spread: T1 -1.5 maps @ -167 (1.67 units)

Prop: Map 1 OVER 1.5 barons @ +167 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 OVER 1.5 barons @ +167 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 3 OVER 1.5 barons @ +167 (1 unit)

 

If Clozer-based lineup for T1:

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 24.5 @ -104 (1.04 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 24.5 @ -104 (1.04 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 OVER 24.5 @ -104 (1.04 units)

 


 

LOL Championship Series (LCS)

Mid-Season Playoff

Week 1 – Day 2

 

 

 

Cloud 9 -334 (-1.5 maps @ -141, -2.5 @ +233, +1.5 @ -754)

vs

100 Thieves +260 (+1.5 maps @ +116, +2.5 @ -296, -1.5 @ +525, -2.5 @ +1250)

 

 

Map ML Price: C9 -208 / 100T +168

Total Maps Played: 3.5 maps (over -245 / under +178), 4.5 maps (over +209 / under -293)

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -112 / under -118)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -108 / +5.5 @ -123

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -117 / under -124)

(via Pinnacle)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

C9 Tale of the Tape 100T
596.4 Gold Diff @ 10 min -94.8
1099.0 Gold Diff @ 15 min 440.7
1133.4 Gold Diff @ 20 min 381.6
63.4 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -0.8
78.1 Gold Diff / min first 20 27.3
530.5 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -3.7
1902.8 Gold /min 1785.8
127.0 Gold / min vs Avg 10.0
198.2 Gold Diff / min 29.9
2.7 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.4
1673.7 Kill Agnostic GPM 1622.7
120.4 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 37.7
73.0 Win-Adjusted GPM -24.6
95.0 Win-Adjusted Gold Diff/min -35.9
54.4 Dragon Control % 56.4
55.9 Herald Control % 66.7
66.7 Baron Control % 53.3
Neutral Objective Rating
7.0 Quality Wins? 3.0
53.8 % of wins as Quality 27.3

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

100 Thieves +1.5 maps @ +116 (strong)

100 Thieves series moneyline @ +260 (light)

100 Thieves map moneyline @ +168 (light)

OVER 4.5 maps @ +209 (very light)

 

Quantitative Analysis:

The model likes 100 Thieves by a very slight margin but the reason it’s so strong on the +1.5 maps is that the price is just not in line with what it should be given the projected series outcomes using the other lines. In other words it’s just a bad number.

When breaking this down from a statistical perspective the obvious conclusion is that this is Cloud 9’s series to lose.

Cloud 9 / 100 Thieves Rankings in Key Metrics (C9 / 100T):

Win-Adjusted Gold per Minute (#1 / #7)

Win-Adjusted Gold Differential per Minute (#2 / #9)

Kill Agnostic Gold per Minute (#2 / #4)

Kill Agnostic Gold Differential per Minute (#2 / #4)

Gold per Minute in Loss (#2 / #7)

Gold per Minute in Win (#1 / #9)

Raw Gold per Minute (#1 / #5)

 

For as much criticism as I give Cloud 9 in regards to how they play the game (more on that in the next section), it’s pretty tough to deny their economic consistency regardless of the game state. For a team that seems much more mortal without a huge lead, they actually have an impressive rest of game gold differential and kill agnostic gold per minute/differential per minute. Their win-adjusted numbers are perhaps the most impressive. You don’t get to this point without a full team effort but a lot of these advantages fall on the backs for Perkz and Blaber just completely dominating their competition. We may think Perkz hasn’t been quite as dominant as expected in his transition to the LCS but just because we had unrealistically high expectations doesn’t discount what he’s done so far.

Where 100 Thieves keep things close is in objective control but if we isolate their six games against Liquid, TSM, and Cloud 9 (in my opinion, the class of the LCS) they have just a single win. Here’s isolated numbers just in those six games:

100 Thieves vs Top 3:

Gold Differential 10 / 15 / 20: -329 / -1081 / -2579

Gold per Minute: 1652 (higher than their full season average of 1614gpm in losses)

Kill-Agnostic Gold per Minute: 1542

Gold Differential per Minute: -269 (again better than their -326 average in losses)

Sub 46% in all neutral objectives

 

Obviously this is slightly warped by five of these being losses but you can see 100 Thieves actually put up some of their better losing performances of the season in these games and still lost. An average 100 Thieves loss looks significantly worse than what we saw against the top three teams. Perhaps this indicates that they elevate and play up or maybe that we should expect a stomping here. Keep in mind most of these were played with Damonte.

Speaking of Damonte, he ranks 10th amonst mid laners in my individual player model with league worsts in experience differential per minute, second worst in gold differential at 15, by far the worst in damage per minute, second worst in overall gold per minute, and worst in CS per minute and damage per gold per minute as well. Ry0ma hasn’t been anything stellar but he’s been a substantial upgrade on that front. I’m aware they’re stylistically different which contributes to this but still, those are borderline unforgivable numbers for Damonte so I think it’s correct to roll with Ry0ma here.

The deeper, adjusted statistics make a much stronger case for Cloud 9 than the surface level ones and some of what the model uses so I’m actually more toward the Cloud 9 side of things from a quantitative angle. Without the objective control numbers that 100 Thieves have this series would be a strong value on Cloud 9 and I think that strength is obscuring the real edge Cloud 9 have here.

Below are my series result projections via the model.

Conclusion: Surface level, slight 100T value, deeper dive, Cloud 9 smash

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
3 1 26.605%
3 0 22.784%
3 2 20.711%
2 3 13.199%
1 3 10.805%
0 3 5.897%
(Series Win):
70.099%

 

Over 3.5 maps
67.498%
Under 3.5 maps
32.502%
Over 4.5 maps
33.910%
Under 4.5 maps
66.090%

 

Quantitative Analysis:

This is a stylistic nightmare for 100 Thieves depending on the approach they have in this series. If we see the Cloud 9 that we saw earlier this season at the Lock-In, the uptempo, strong and aggressive early game look, then I think they’ll have a much better shot here. If we see the 100 Thieves that we’ve seen for majority of the season so far then I think this is going to be a Cloud 9 rout.

I have some issues with Cloud 9’s high variance play at times but generally they have reasons for what they’re doing and it’s usually to completely blow out any advantage they do get much like an LPL team does. Every so often they’ll overreach but generally that’s what I like to see teams doing.

The big picture for this series is which carries harder, the outer lanes or the mid/jungle duo? In general for the entire scene of professional LOL right now, I’d actually lean toward the outer lanes. There are so many advantages that you can leverage from those positions right now BUT a big part of why I say outer lanes is because most teams aren’t as good at taking advantage of mid/jungle advantages as they are outer lane advantages. Most teams aren’t aggressively counterpicking mid, aren’t forcing the issue, aren’t abusing priority advantages they’re just playing safe zone control mages. Cloud 9 are one of the teams that are actually good at playing through this duo and it’s two of the best players in the entire league.

I just don’t see how 100 Thieves overcome Perkz and Blaber without some radical adjustments to how they approach the game with this lineup. I want to see them approach this series like Vitality in their final week against Misfits. Just don’t let Perkz and Blaber take over the game. If we see them drafting a winning mid/jungle 2v2 then I think they have a reasonable chance to win this series but I’m not exactly sure how they’re going to do that without showing us something completely different. I’m talking about things like Leblanc/Olaf, Twisted Fate/Nidalee, or something that keeps Perkz pinned down like maybe Ekko. This hasn’t been Ry0ma’s MO or 100 Thieves in general. I’m not sure you can make that kind of adjustment as quickly as a week but if we don’t see that I think this is an easy Cloud 9 stomping.

My only hesitation would be the Zven in playoffs narrative. The guy has a history of severely underperforming in big spots in the past couple of years but this is also early in the season and there isn’t a Worlds spot on the line, it’s just an exhibition tournament they’re playing for. Maybe not quite buying into that narrative as much as I normally would. Still, worth mentioning given how good 100T’s bottom lane duo is.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 24.877

Time-Implied: 26.131

Underdog Win: 26.584

“Gelati” Total Projection: 25.602 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 47.22% (C9 50% / 100T 44.44%)

Volatility Rating: C9 0.34707 / 100T 0.34098 (League Avg: 0.2881)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

—-

Team Totals:

100 Thieves team total OVER 9.5 kills @ -125 (strong)

 

Combined Kills / game 25.167 26.253
Combined Kills / min 0.790 0.772
Kills per win 16.514 17.009
Kills per loss 9.575 7.420
Deaths per win 7.23 11.64

 

 

(C9 left, 100T right)

 

A lot of this depends on how you think these games go. If you think we get longer, 100T regular season style games then this is a surefire over, otherwise I think we’re going to get some really lopsided C9 wins and an under. I happen to think the latter is more likely but the volatility of each of these teams is going to keep me off trying to guess here.

 

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 33.461 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 33.38 / 33.47

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 47.22% (C9 38.89% / 100T 55.56%)

Volatility Rating: C9 0.14960 / 100T 0.23028 (League Avg: 0.1744)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none   

 

C9 100T
Average Game Time 31.25 35.67
Avg Game Time (in wins) 30.25 36.34
Avg Game Time (in losses) 33.857 34.614

 

I happen to like the under more than the model does given that I think C9 are going to roll and more importantly, IF 100 Thieves are going to win it will likely be because of a radical shift in philosophy to an more uptempo look. That said, at these prices I’ll pass.

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

100T first dragon @ -117 (strong)

100T first tower @ -103 (strong)**

OVER 1.5 barons @ +153 (strong)

C9 first blood @ -132 (strong)

OVER 4.5 dragons @ -128 (moderate)

C9 first tower @ -129 (moderate)**

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -208 (light)

 

** denotes a category both teams excel in and to tread cautiously (I usually avoid)

The only “first” bet I’d make in this series is 100 Thieves first dragon as that’s been a priority for them this season. I expect their bottom lane to be in full control this series which contributes to that as well.

For the rest, I think the way you play props for this series again depends on the anticipated game script. If you think these are Cloud 9 style, uptempo games, then none of these overs make a lot of sense. IF you think we get 2 or 3 games where it’s more contested then the overs are a tremendous value. I happen to think we might get one contested game but that this is likely going to be a Cloud 9 stomping so I’m a bit bearish on all of these markets and if anything I’d lean toward the unders.

I’ll take my 100T first dragon and that’s all for this one.

 

Series Prediction: Cloud 9  3-1

I think 100 Thieves will be able to stall out one of these games or just win through Ssumday abusing Fudge or maybe Zven chokes a game away at some point but it’s pretty tough to make a non-narrative based case against Cloud 9.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: Cloud 9 -334 (3.44 units)

Map Spread: Cloud 9 -1.5 maps @ -141 (0.705 units)

Prop: Map 1 100T first dragon @ -117 (0.585 units)

Prop: Map 2 100T first dragon @ -117 (0.585 units)

Prop: Map 3 100T first dragon @ -117 (0.585 units)

Prop: Map 4 100T first dragon @ -117 (0.585 units)

Prop: Map 5 100T first dragon @ -117 (0.585 units)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

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