Saturday, March 13th Recap

 

I’ll be updating the recaps that I don’t have notes on as I go this weekend. As you all know by now, my Thursday through Saturday schedule is absolutely bonkers and I don’t always get to comb over each of these with a fine-toothed comb right away.

 

TOP Esports vs EDward Gaming (Net: +1.07 units)

RareAtom vs Invictus Gaming (Net: -0.16 units)

Bilibili Gaming vs Rogue Warriors (Net: -1.55 units)

Fredit Brion vs Afreeca Freecs (Net: -0.77 units)

Gen.G vs T1 (Net: +3.805 units)

 

 

Astralis vs SK Gaming (Net: -1.43 units)

Vitality vs Schalke (Net: -0.595 units)

Rogue vs Excel (Net: -3.63 units)

Misfits vs Fnatic (Net: -4.41 units)

G2 vs MAD Lions (Net: -0.94 units)

Absolute bloodbath in Europe today… jeez.

 

TSM vs Immortals (Net: +2.0 units)

Cloud 9 vs Dignitas (Net: -1.93 units)

100 Thieves vs FlyQuest (Net: -1.72 units)

Evil Geniuses vs Liquid (Net: -1.16 units)

Golden Guardians vs CLG (Net: -2.1 units)

 

LPL Net Total: -0.64 units

LCK Net Total: +3.035 units

LEC Net Total: -11.005 units

LCS Net Total: -4.91 units

Parlays: -4.0 units

 

Daily Net Total: -17.52 units (ouch)

 

Current Week (March 8th-14th): -11.465 units 

 

Absolute bloodbath today…

 


LOL Pro League (China)

Week 8 – Day 7

 

OMG +254 (+1.5 maps @ -130, -1.5 @ +638)

vs

LNG Esports -345 (-1.5 maps @ +102, +1.5 @ -1250)

 

 

Map ML Price: OMG +192 / LNG -256

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +124 / under -159)

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -115 / under -114)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -112 / -7.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -114 / under -114)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OMG +1.5 maps @ -130 (moderate)

OMG series moneyline @ +254 (moderate)

OMG map moneyline @ +192 (moderate)

OVER 2.5 maps @ +124 (light)

 

OMG had an excellent showing against Team WE the other day, appropriately whooped on Rogue Warriors, got whooped by TOP, and had a competitive series against RareAtom before that. This team is feisty and getting progressively better as the season goes on unlike some of their counterparts at the bottom of the table. They’ve always been a pretty smart team it’s just been a matter of the horses in the stable so to speak and it appears that they’re improving and building chemistry.

LNG have mostly taken care of business against the bottom of the table but struggled against TT and most recently LGD who took a game off of them.

LNG Tale of the Tape OMG
-295.7 Gold Diff @ 10 min -855.7
-703.0 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1521.7
-538.9 Gold Diff @ 20 min -2370.1
12.4 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -43.3
-18.5 Gold Diff / min first 20 -138.3
365.2 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -217.9
1777.8 Gold /min 1684.7
-27.3 Gold / min vs Avg -120.4
-38.0 Gold Diff / min -217.9
-0.4 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -3.0
1611.0 Kill Agnostic GPM 1545.1
-38.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -130.2
46.7 Dragon Control % 46.9
41.5 Herald Control % 50.0
32.4 Baron Control % 41.7
6.0 Quality Wins? 2.0
50.0 % of wins as Quality 25.0

 

I’ve actually been impressed with what OMG have showed in the past few matches but they’re still ultimately a flawed and linear team. When Aki or Cold aren’t extremely fed this team feels rather toothless as Wuming has contributed next to nothing in the mid lane role and New has been fairly unexciting. That said, LNG aren’t exactly impressing either.

I’m going to take a position on OMG in this contest not just because the model is showing value but because I think that stylistically this is a matchup that they can compete in. LNG aren’t a good early game team. In fact, they’re rather poor in terms of controlling objectives on the map in general. That’s one of the things OMG are good at relative to their win rate. LNG’s lanes aren’t going to put you in the dumpster and they’re not usually very proactive in terms of abusing their advantages. When you get two scaling oriented teams like this the matchups tend to be much closer to coin flips than not unless there is a drastic quality gap. In this case I think LNG are a better overall team but not by as much as this number states they are. I’ll take the dogs.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 23.893

Time-Implied: 25.971

Underdog Win: 26.777

“Gelati” Total Projection: 25.129 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 53.51% (LNG 51.85% / OMG 55.17%)

Volatility Rating: LNG 0.30745 / OMG 0.32862 (League Avg: 0.3082)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

LNG team total UNDER 15.5 @ -128 (VERY strong)

OMG team total under 8.5 @ -110 (light)

 

The way the game total is priced I’m not a huge fan of anything despite leaning toward the over. I do like this LNG team total under play. LNG go under 15.5 kills in half their wins alone but the concern here is that OMG tend to die A LOT when they lose (17.38 times per game). I’ll pass for now.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 30.774 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 30.54 / 30.82

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 44.51% (LNG 40.74% / OMG 48.28%)

Volatility Rating: LNG 0.14581 / OMG 0.17008 (League Avg: 0.15992)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 31:00 @ -114 (light)

 

I was a little surprised at this price initially but it makes some sense given the average game time and that most of LNG’s wins have been against bad teams and quickly. Good price. Pass.

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -270 (strong)

OMG first dragon @ -101 (strong)

OVER 1.5 barons @ +180 (moderate)

LNG first herald @ -116 (light)

 

OMG first dragon and under 12.5 towers looks good to me. Neither of these teams have been particularly good from a deficit and tend to just get run over.

 

 

My Picks:

 

Map Spread: OMG +1.5 maps @ -130 (1.3 units)

Moneyline: OMG +254 (0.5 units)

Map Spread: OMG -1.5 maps @ +638 (0.25 units)

Prop: Map 1 OMG first dragon @ -101 (1.01 units)

Prop: Map 2 OMG first dragon @ -101 (1.01 units)

Prop: Map 3 OMG first dragon @ -106 (1.06 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -270 (2.7 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -286 (2.86 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -250 (2.5 units)

 


Suning Gaming -137 (-1.5 maps @ +218, +1.5 @ -417)

vs

Team WE +108 (+1.5 maps @ -294, -1.5 @ +290)

 

 

Map ML Price: SN -128 / WE +100

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over -102 / under -125)

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -104 / under -125)

Kill Spread: -2.5 @ -114 / +2.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +114 / under -149)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

WE series moneyline @ +108 (moderate)

WE map moneyline @ +100 (moderate-light)

 

Suning Tale of the Tape WE
584.1 Gold Diff @ 10 min 539.1
1568.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min 1355.7
2816.9 Gold Diff @ 20 min 1685.1
-99.4 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 45.2
44.4 Gold Diff / min first 20 55.8
692.9 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 523.8
1836.8 Gold /min 1892.7
31.6 Gold / min vs Avg 87.5
115.6 Gold Diff / min 187.2
1.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 2.6
1638.5 Kill Agnostic GPM 1675.2
48.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 131.1
51.7 Dragon Control % 53.3
62.5 Herald Control % 57.4
52.9 Baron Control % 64.7
60.0 % of wins as Quality 50.0
9.0 Quality Wins? 9.0

 

Keep in mind that the model does weight in trending performance so the fact that WE are still rather close to Suning despite the perceived opposite trajectories of these teams should be telling.

Simply put, this is a close match and you could make a case for Suning for sure but I do think WE are a better overall team that’s just being clouded a bit by recent results. Suning have looked the best that they have since the World Championship but after a full season of not seeing that I’m skeptical that they’ve just simply flipped a switch. WE are the opposite. I’ll bet on regression here and go with Team WE at plus money.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 26.065

Time-Implied: 25.912

Underdog Win: 27.822

“Gelati” Total Projection: 25.918 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 47.48% (SN 32% / WE 62.96%)

Volatility Rating: SN 0.38863 / WE 0.17126 (League Avg: 0.3082)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

WE team total OVER 11.5 @ -111 (strong)

SN team total over 13.5 @ -105 (light)

 

On average I’d lean over the full total with these two, especially since I think WE are more likely to win and they score higher in wins. I’ll take a cheap over even with the model not including it.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 31.528 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 31.83 / 31.84

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 38.81% (SN 48% / WE 29.63%)

Volatility Rating: SN 0.18194 / WE 0.11309 (League Avg: 0.15992)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 32:00 @ -149 (light)

 

The under definitely feels like the play here but I think the price is fair so I’ll attack this angle through different avenues.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -233 (VERY strong)

UNDER 4.5 dragons @ +120 (moderate-light)

WE first herald @ -108 (light)*

WE first dragon @ -127 (light)

SN first blood @ -118 (very light)

WE first tower @ -116 (light)

 

Unders make a lot of sense given the speed at which these teams, particularly WE close games out. Suning have a little “stomp or be stomped” to them while WE are a bit more competitive in losses but the under towers is a slam dunk here.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: WE +108 (1 unit)

Map Spread: WE -1.5 maps @ +290 (0.25 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 24.5 @ -104 (1.04 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 24.5 @ -114 (1.14 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 OVER 24.5 @ -118 (1.18 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -233 (2.33 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -238 (2.38 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -233 (2.33 units)

 


  

Royal Never Give Up -323 (-1.5 maps @ +108, +1.5 @ -1111)

vs

JD Gaming +235 (+1.5 maps @ -137, -1.5 @ +603)

 

 

Map ML Price: RNG -244 / JDG +186

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +123 / under -156)

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -110 / under -119)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -123 / +6.5 @ -105

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -112 / under -115)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

JDG +1.5 maps @ -137 (very light)

JDG map moneyline @ +186 (very light)

OVER 2.5 maps @ +123 (very light)

JDG series moneyline @ +235 (miniscule)

 

97.9 Gold Diff @ 10 min 128.7
1265.3 Gold Diff @ 15 min 411.4
1855.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min 259.8
10.5 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 55.6
80.3 Gold Diff / min first 20 20.2
571.1 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 356.5
1908.2 Gold /min 1842.2
103.1 Gold / min vs Avg 37.1
204.3 Gold Diff / min 49.9
2.8 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.7
1682.6 Kill Agnostic GPM 1639.0
121.2 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 39.0
59.0 Dragon Control % 52.1
48.3 Herald Control % 44.9
71.4 Baron Control % 48.6
9.0 Quality Wins? 7.0
39.1 % of wins as Quality 43.8

 

JDG look much improved from their early season form but I still have A LOT of question about this team the biggest of which is just how versatile they are. Right now, JDG games feel like they boil down to the first herald fight. If they win it then they tend to stomp, if they lose it then they tend to get stomped. This I have a problem with because intelligent teams simply don’t oblige them and suddenly JDG look lost.

JDG have fared terribly against top ten teams this season averaging a -1000 gold differential at 15 mins and -1339 at 20 mins and a -38 kill agnostic gold differential per minute meaning they haven’t been playing particularly good defense when they get behind either. They’ve averaged 1.92 dragons per game, 0.78 heralds per game, and 0.43 barons per game (out of 1.2 barons per game) in these contests. You’d think these numbers actually look a little better considering they’ve gone 6-8 in these contests. Only five of these games even went over the 30 minute mark.

RNG honestly haven’t been great on the stat sheets against top ten teams either but their +65 kill agnostic gold per minute differential is rather telling about their ability to grind teams out and be intelligent in the macro game.

I don’t think RNG are quite as good as their record but I don’t think JDG are either and I’d adjust this number toward RNG. This is a no bet on the side especially because you could have had it earlier in the week at RNG -222. I would not play it at this current number but would at anything under -250. JDG are a “value” at this spot but RNG are too smart of a team to fall for their extremely predictable playbook so I have a hard time wanting to back them. I’ll pass.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 26.665

Time-Implied: 28.219

Underdog Win: 28.063

“Gelati” Total Projection: 27.507 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 46.965% (RNG 37.93% / JDG 56%)

Volatility Rating: RNG 0.29877 / JDG 0.30846  (League Avg: 0.3082)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

JDG team total OVER 9.5 kills @ -125 (strong)

 

The projections like this over quite a bit more but it’s primarily because of JDG’s typical game scripts. They average 25.2 combined kills per game against top ten teams but 28.32 for the season. RNG have averaged about 25.7 combined kills per game over the second half and just 24.9 against top ten teams so this number feels just about right to me. Pass.

If you’re more bullish than I am on JDG the team total is actually a very nice, insulated play here. They could easily hit this even in a loss.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 31.947 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 31.3 / 31.36

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 44.41% (RNG 44.83% / JDG 44%)

Volatility Rating: RNG 0.17107 / JDG 0.18520 (League Avg: 0.15992)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 32:00 @ -115 (light)

 

RNG JDG
Average Game Time 32.06 31.83
Avg Game Time (in wins) 32.22 33.22
Avg Game Time (in losses) 31.453 29.363

 

I expect RNG to win this series and typically scaling or dragon centric teams tend to be slightly slower winners.  Number is right about on the money.

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -312 (moderate)

RNG first tower @ -164 (light)

OVER 1.5 barons @ +148 (light)

 

I’m not going to play any of these. This series could fairly easily turn very competitive. IF I had to pick one it’d be RNG first tower or the over 1.5 barons as an alternative way to play the time total over.

 

My Picks:

 

no wagers

 


LOL Champions Korea (LCK)

Week 8 – Day 4

 

 

Liiv Sandbox+239 (+1.5 maps @ -139, -1.5 @ +548)

vs

Hanwha Life Esports -323 (-1.5 maps @ +109, +1.5 @ -1000)

 

 

Map ML Price: LSB +176 / HLE -233

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +121 / under -156)

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -118 / under -111)

Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -108 / -6.5 @ -122

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -111 / under -118)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

I like Sandbox quite a bit more here than the model does. This team is feeling very good about themselves and has shown that they’re still competing despite the unlikely, but not impossible, playoff dreams. With nobody in the bottom half of the table over five wins it’s well within reason for Sandbox to make a playoff run and they’ve finally been delivering on their statistical performance in the win column with decisive victories over Gen.G and KT Rolster.

Hanwha are still a team that I’m having a hard time really pinning down. It’s almost entirely The Chovy Show. He’s one of the few players on the earth that you can do that with and is making a case for being the best player in the world right now but there are enough holes and question marks on the rest of this roster and about their play style that they’re just going to be a volatile team in general.

HLE Tale of the Tape LSB
560.8 Gold Diff @ 10 min 308.6
773.0 Gold Diff @ 15 min 581.0
1175.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min 339.0
1770.0 GPM first 20 min 1605.0
34.5 Gold Diff / min first 20 23.4
215.9 Gold Diff / min ROG -203.7
1850.9 Gold /min 1756.1
31.0 Gold / min vs Avg 30.0
89.1 Gold Diff / min -81.9
1.3 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -1.2
1534.8 Kill Agnostic GPM 1497.5
-182.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -326.8
57.4 Dragon Control % 45.2
47.5 Herald Control % 48.2
54.5 Baron Control % 30.8
8.0 Quality Wins? 10.0
44.4 % of wins as Quality 55.6

 

While this factors in trending performance I think it illustrates that Sandbox are more than capable of keeping up with these teams and perhaps more importantly, illustrates that Hanwha’s reliance on kills for their economy score, besides Chovy who single handedly is keeping them from being the worst kill agnostic eco team in the league, is just going to make them a high variance team.

I like Sandbox more than the model does here so I’m going to back the dogs.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 27.213

Time-Implied: 26.164

Underdog Win: 26.719

“Gelati” Total Projection: 26.561 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 55.59% (HLE 64.52% / LSB 46.67%)

Volatility Rating: HLE 0.28855 / LSB 0.28304 (League Avg: 0.3140)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

LSB team total OVER 9.5 kills @ -101 (strong)

(alt) OVER 23.5 kills @ -143 (moderate)

OVER 24.5 kills @ -118 (light)

 

I do like the over quite a bit in HLE games in general. Sandbox are averaging 25.2 combined kills per game themselves. I’ll play the over here and LSB over team total for half stake.

 

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 32.342 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 32.35 / 32.35

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 52.53% (HLE 48.39% / LSB 56.67%)

Volatility Rating: HLE 0.09812 / LSB 0.16599 (League Avg: 0.15698)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

Hanwha are pretty consistently clocking in around this number as are LSB. I’ll pass.

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

LSB first herald @ -125 (strong)*

LSB first tower @ +110 (strong)*

OVER 1.5 barons @ +148 (moderate)

OVER 11.5 towers @ -110 (light)

HLE first tower @ -149 (light)*

HLE first herald @ -108 (light)*

 

The asterisks as always denote where the two line up. The price is right on LSB for the tower and herald even if you consider that Hanwha are no slouches in those either. I’ll be playing first herald as it’s the best value on the board as well as a half stake on the over 1.5 barons.

 

My Picks:

 

Map Spread: LSB +1.5 maps @ -139 (1.39 units)

Moneyline: LSB +239 (0.75 units)

Map Spread: LSB -1.5 maps @ +548 (0.25 units)

Kill Total (team): Map 1 LSB OVER 9.5 kills @ -101 (0.505 units)

Kill Total (team): Map 2 LSB OVER 9.5 kills @ -110 (0.55 units)

Kill Total (team): Map 3 LSB OVER 9.5 kills @ -110 (0.55 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 24.5 @ -118 (1.18 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 24.5 @ -128 (1.28 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 OVER 24.5 @ -135 (1.35 units)

Prop: Map 1 LSB first herald @ -125 (0.625 units)

Prop: Map 2 LSB first herald @ -108 (0.54 units)

Prop: Map 3 LSB first herald @ -125 (0.625 units)

Prop: Map 1 OVER 1.5 barons @ +148 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 OVER 1.5 barons @ +148 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 3 OVER 1.5 barons @ +154 (0.5 units)

 


 

DAMWON Kia Gaming -1250 (-1.5 maps @ -244)

vs

Nongshim Red Force +662 (+1.5 maps @ +186, -1.5 @ +1012)

 

 

Map ML Price: DWG -556 / NS +375

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +224 / under -303)

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -114 / under -115)

Kill Spread: -9.5 @ -111 / +9.5 @ -118

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -118 / under -111)

 

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

Nongshim pulled out a victory their last time out against DRX and have won two of their previous three series. Bay has actually had a couple of decent games which is more than I could have said for him the entire rest of the season and when this team gets to play proactively they look a lot better. Nongshim probably deserve an upgrade just for realizing that this is how they should have been playing all along.

The thing is those teams aren’t DAMWON.

Tales of DAMWON’s plummet from grace are way WAY overstated. I wrote quite a bit on this in my last article but the short version is that just because they’re doing it in a less sexy way doesn’t mean this team isn’t ruthlessly efficient or worse. You can’t compare every team, every season, to the biggest outlier season I’ve ever seen (DWG Summer 2020 is the best individual season I’ve ever seen in any of the majors, not close). It’s like comparing someone to Wayne Gretzsky. Here’s the thing though. DAMWON are still turning out a lot of similar metrics despite playing in a completely different way than they did last year, for the most part. They have the best kill agnostic gold per minute in the world in any region and not only that, but the best kill agnostic gold differential per minute BY A MILE in the world. This team is quite literally grinding people to a pulp, choking them out like a boa constrictor like the best version of Griffin in their prime that you’ve ever seen. In short, don’t hate on DAMWON just because they’re not obliterating teams in 20 minutes anymore. They’re not having to show anything so why would they.

The model suggests no play but I’m taking DAMWON here. They’re going to completely smash this series.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 27.093

Time-Implied: 26.165

Underdog Win: 27.276

“Gelati” Total Projection: 26.17 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 46.97% (DWG 48.48% / NS 45.45%)

Volatility Rating: DWG 0.31136 / NS 0.32391 (League Avg: 0.3140)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

NS team total OVER 8.5 @ -110 (moderate)

DWG team total UNDER 16.5 @ -115 (very light)

 

I’d lean toward the unders here but I’m just going to pass.

 

 

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 32.956 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 33.5 / 33.47

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 57.576% (DWG 63.64% / NS 51.52%)

Volatility Rating: DWG 0.19164 / NS 0.14657 (League Avg: 0.15698)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 31:00 @ -118 (moderate-light)

 

This is close enough and DAMWON have good enough closing speed that if Nongshim botch something they’ll just end the game but DAMWON haven’t been actively playing to speed run as much this season very much adapting Kkoma’s style of team. Pass but lean to over like the model.

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

NS first dragon @ +110 (strong)*

NS first herald @ +155 (strong)*

OVER 1.5 barons @ +167 (strong)

OVER 12.5 towers @ +205 (moderate)

OVER 11.5 towers @ +101 (moderate)

OVER 4.5 dragons @ +100 (moderate)

 

Nongshim are very much a dragon team but DAMWON tend to play to either disrupt whatever their opponents are doing and delay their win condition or just play opposite of them. For that reason I don’t hate playing the plus money first dragon here but I have a tough time really justifying it besides the number which isn’t particularly insane or anything. I’m just going to pass these. All the over map objective totals make sense given the over time total suggestion but as I mentioned, DAMWON are more than capable of winning a fast game if mistakes are made and Nongshim make plenty of them.

 

 

My Picks:

 

Map Spread: DAMWON -1.5 maps @ -244 (2.44 units)

 

 

 

 


LOL European Championship (LEC)

Week 8 – Day 3

 

Trend sheet not updated with yesterday’s games so if you need them check on yesterday’s post.

 

The only favorite to win a game this weekend in the LEC is Schalke which is a little nutty. I had one of my worst days of the year on the back of all the upsets and some bad timing on my part. Weird things happen in the final week just like in the NFL Week 17 but I perhaps didn’t give enough weight to that. Perhaps it’s an overreaction but there are a lot of cheap favorites today so let’s see if we can take advantage of the pricing.

I’m not going to go over every single playoff scenario but the big ones today are:

  • Fnatic win and they’re locked in but they could get in just based on other losses. If they lose and Misfits, Schalke, and G2 win then they’re actually out of playoffs. That’s a very real possibility.
  • Schalke/Excel face off. Excel won first match so if they win Schalke could be out with a Misfits AND SK loss.
  • SK hold the tiebreaker over Misfits (2-0) so if they can beat G2 they’re either in or force a tiebreaker for Schalke.

 

Team Vitality +118 vs Misfits -149

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -110 / -4.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +111 / under -145)

 

I keep doubting this Misfits team and they keep delivering with five of their past six games being victories and their only loss coming to G2. We all know Fnatic are a bit volatile but they utterly dominated them yesterday which was yet another good look. Vitality didn’t even get a tower against Schalke yesterday and were more or less completely taken out of the game primarily because of a toothless draft with very little means for getting things done against what Schalke had put together (I’m not a Renekton hater like most people but this was an AWFUL spot for it).

Vitality have had a few suspect drafts in recent weeks but I don’t think we want to overreact to just that yesterday. That said I think this is a really cheap price for Misfits and it has actually come down in price since earlier in the week. They’re playing very well right now and I can’t say the same for Vitality.

I’m passing on totals for this game since Vitality tend to be a slow+under and Misfits are a fast+over. Misfits team total over isn’t a bad look either but I’m just going to stick to the moneyline.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Misfits -149 (1.49 units)

 

 


Schalke 04 -167  vs Excel Esports +131

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over +103 / under -133)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -122 / +5.5 @ -106

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -104 / under -125)

 

This is essentially a win-and-in for Schalke with a few scenarios where they’d need to play a tiebreaker.

Excel need to win this to have any chance at all and would need a Misfits loss and an SK loss as well.

I don’t know what Excel are having for breakfast this weekend but I’ll have what they’re having. I don’t know where this team was all season long. Admittedly G2 had a bit of a suspect draft on Friday but Excel took it to them and then against Rogue yesterday they put together their best two early game scripts in back-to-back games. One can’t help but think it would be “the most Excel thing ever” to go full CLG and lose this final match but it’s tough to deny how solid they look this weekend and momentum can sometimes propel a team.

Schalke have looked better as well, taking down Fnatic and completely dismantling Vitality yesterday.

So Excel aren’t technically out of Misfits win in the match before this because SK could still lose and Excel holds the head-to-head over Schalke from earlier this season. It’s not a situation where Misfits lose and they’re out. Normally you could point to that as maybe a catalyst but this schedule today is going to be a bit wild.

Schalke are most certainly the better team and tend to capitalize on teams just like Excel who have had rough early games all season long. That said, Excel have played their best games of the entire season this weekend so you have to make a judgement call on whether you’re buying it or not. I’m not buying that Excel have suddenly figured something out. Over the course of the season Schalke have had significantly better performance overall and just like Excel, they’ve been much better recently. If this was in the middle of the season I would have taken Schalke up to -200 ish.

 

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: Schalke -167 (1.67 units)

 

 


MAD Lions -345 vs Astralis +251

 

Kill Total: 27.5 (0ver -110 / under -119)

Kill Spread: -9.5 @ -102 / +9.5 @ -127

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -112 / under -116)

 

Astralis have looked pretty good the past two weeks and the pressure being off seems to have really helped this team loosen up. They’ve won both their games so far this weekend against Vitality and SK Gaming. MAD Lions responded to their Friday loss to Misfits with a win over G2 but it’s worth noting that G2 gambled in the first five minutes of this game with Jankos’ jungle path and it didn’t work out so this game was effectively over in minutes based on the draft and that decision. It was an irrecoverable situation so I don’t want to put too much stock into that victory G2 sort of threw it to them.

Nobody is doubting that MAD Lions have been the better team but I still have questions about the consistency of this squad and Astralis have looked much better of late. This game also means nothing for either side in the standings as Astralis are out and MAD Lions can’t reach Rogue and hold the head-to-head 2-0 against Fnatic so they’re locked in to #3. That doesn’t mean these teams won’t be trying to win this but there’s some potential for shenanigans here. MAD Lions might try to show a pick to earn draft leverage for playoffs or they might play intentionally “vanilla” or generic which could provide some opportunities for Astralis here.

I’m going to back the underdogs here mostly because I think this kill spread and number are just a bit too big for how much better Astralis have been in the past few weeks. The over is intriguing as well with this carefree narrative but 27.5 is pretty high this could just as easily be a one-sided stomping as a full-on clown fiesta so I’m just going to pass on that.

 

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Astralis +9.5 kills @ -127 (1.27 units)

Moneyline: Astralis +251 (0.5 units)

 

 


G2 Esports -417 vs SK Gaming +291

 

Kill Total: 27.5 (over -115 / under -114)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -120 / +8.5 @ -109

Team Kill Totals: 17.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +110 / under -143)

 

G2 had a suspect draft on Friday and to some extent yesterday, and then Jankos hard gambled with his initial path decision I’d assume because of the draft they had to effectively end that game in the first five minutes. I don’t really know what to think of all this. G2 have been very “not themselves” in regards to this sort of thing this entire season and then back-to-back in the final week as if to meme on everyone. I’m not entirely buying that they didn’t give a damn about this weekend but it certainly looks that way. Still, this team rarely does this three games in a row.

SK Gaming need this win, plain and simple. They hold the head-to-head 2-0 against Misfits but would have to play a tiebreaker against Schalke in the other situtions. Regardless, none of that matters without a win here so they’ll certainly be up for this game. The thing is, SK have lost their past four matches and while I don’t typically perscribe as much to the narrative angles on things, they legitimately look tilted and frustrated. If you’ve been following this all season you’re not going to be surprised to hear me say that they had this coming. You simply can’t let teams jump out to leads on you almost every single game and hope to find a miracle engage or a huge mistake that let’s you back into the game. It’s not a repeatable, long-term winning formula and they’re paying for that now.

This would normally be a slam dunk G2 bet but I legitimately would not put it past them to play a little five dimenional chess here and let SK win just to force tiebreakers to see more film from people or something along those lines. Stylistically this is about as big a mismatch as you can get. G2 rarely make mid and late game mistakes, the ones the SK rely on other teams making to win games and G2’s early game is significantly better than almost everybody besides Rogue. There is also the angle of whether G2 really care about having the #1 seed or not as they’re currently tied with Rogue.

Brutal… this is a brutal situation because this is way way WAY too cheap a price on G2 but the circumstances leave me with enough questions that I’m just going to stay away here. I’d guess G2 show up and try hard in this match to lock in the #1 seed but I wouldn’t put it past them to throw this just to see more film on these other teams. Pass.

 

My Picks:

no wagers

 


Fnatic +124 vs Rogue -161

 

Kill Total: 29.5 (over -110 / under -119)

Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -132 / -6.5 @ +101

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +101 / under -132)

 

This is another situational handicap. If G2 win then Rogue don’t really have much of a reason to show anything in this match and Fnatic are already locked in to the #3 regardless of the result. This could mean these teams treat this as a playoff preview and test each other or it could mean that they don’t want to put anything on film and just clown around. Rogue don’t really strike me as the kind of team to want to joke around but it could happen. Fnatic do but they’ve also been on a bit of a skid losing both of their games this weekend to Misfits and Scahlke so they might want to “get right” and try to win here.

I’d normally slam Rogue here without question. My model likes them up to the -260 range in this matchup and while I’m not quite that bullish I agree that this is definitely a cheap spot for them. The problem is the motivation angle. There’s just no way to tell how this is going to go and how these teams want to “play the long game.”

The final week sucks especially when there are actual advantage positions all over the place but you’re just better off not walking into these land mines.

 

My Picks:

no wagers

 


LOL Championship Series (LCS)

Week 6 – Day 3

 

This is the last slate before the Mid-Season Invitational Playoff. Just in case it was confusing, in the grand scheme of things this has no impact on the season in terms of who ends up going to Worlds in the fall or anything like that. It’s just a playoff to decide who represents the LCS at MSI.

Dignitas -164 vs FlyQuest +124

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -116 / under -112)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -108 / +4.5 @ -122

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -120 / under -109)

 

This is a cheap price on Dignitas. That was my first instinct and when looking into it more I haven’t seen anything that really changes my mind. I haven’t really liked backing favorites that aren’t the top teams in the LCS but this feels like a bit of a gimme.

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: Dignitas -164 (1.64 units)

Kill Spread (alt): Dignitas -5.5 kills @ +107 (0.5 units)

 


Golden Guardians +392 vs Team Solo Mid (TSM) -588

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: +9.5 @ -123 / -9.5 @ -105

Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 16.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -147 / under +113)

 

Golden Guardians played their best game of the split yesterday and picked up a win against CLG but I think it’s fair to say TSM are in a different echelon of team. Really the question you’re asking here is how to back TSM if you want to or whether or not you think backing the dogs on the kill spread is a decent angle. TSM have covered the past few times they’ve been big favorites but I generally have a hard time passing on a +9.5 kill spread in the LCS best-of-ones. Attacking through Golden Guardians first props isn’t bad here either. TSM haven’t been a great first blood team (neither has GGS) but you ca nget a +131 on essentially a weighted coin flip there.

I’m backing TSM by taking the Golden Guardians team total under.

 

My Picks:

Kill Total (team): GGS UNDER 7.5 kills @ -123 (1.23 units)

 


100 Thieves +148 vs Team Liquid -185

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -122 / under -108)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -118 / -4.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -123 / under -106)

 

100 Thieves appear to be out of their funk but they’ve also faced the three worst teams in the league for their past three matches. Liquid represent a significant step up in competition. I’ve said it a lot at this point but Liquid are going to end up being the best team in the LCS and any time I can get them reasonably cheap I’m going to take that opportunity.  100 Thieves still have a lot of issues across the board and have been struggling with consistency. Liquid played one of their worst games of the split yesterday, especially Tactical who was borderline running it down, and still beat a similarly rated Evil Geniuses. A win here would force a tiebreaker for the #3 seed  assuming TSM wins their match against GGS. TSM holds the 2-0 head-to-head against both 100T and Liquid so with a win they become at least the #2 seed, potentially #1 with a Cloud 9 loss. In short, both teams should show up for this game but I expect Liquid to handle business.

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: Liquid -185 (1.85 units)

Kill Spread (alt): Liquid -5.5 kills @ +108 (0.5 units)

 


Evil Geniuses -167 vs Counter Logic Gaming (CLG) +130

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -114 / under -115)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -112 / +5.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -143 / under +109)

 

The time to get on CLG was before this weekend where you could have gotten this at +145 so it’s a question now of whether or not it’s still worth a play on either side here. Evil Geniuses are “cheap” compared to the near -200 you had to lay earlier this week but I’ve mentioned it quite a few times already that I rarely like backing this team as favorites because of how volatile they can be. This is a pass for me but at this price Evil Geniuses could make a lot of sense.  Don’t overreact to the CLG loss to GGS yesterday.

I initially liked the kill total over as the averages for both teams are significantly higher but only 10 out of 17 of EG’s games have gone over this total and 8 out of 17 for CLG so while I think this could be a blood bath, again EG volatility. The time total however is intriguing. EG have gone under this total just five times and CLG just three times.

 

My Picks:

Time Total: OVER 32:00 @ -143 (1.43 units)

Prop: OVER 1.5 barons @ +144 (0.5 units)

 


Immortals +368 vs Cloud 9 -556

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -123 / under -105)

Kill Spread: +9.5 @ -125 / -9.5 @ -104

Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 16.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over +102 / under -133)

 

I’ve been about as bearish on anyone regarding Cloud 9 but I’m not sure this is the place to get cute. They picked up a win yesterday and in convincing fashion against Dignitas. That said, C9 have not been particularly strong against big kill spreads at just 3-3 in games where they were favored by 8.5 kills or more. Immortals have also been excellent against the spread this season at 8-5 with an average kill spread of +6 but they’re just 1-3 against the top three teams this season and were 8.5 or 9.5 dogs in all but the first TSM matchup. I’m still going to take a shot on this one. Overall favorites of 8.5 or more kills have only covered in 7 out of 20 attempts this season.

 

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Immortals +9.5 kills @ -125 (1.25 units)

Moneyline: Immortals +368 (0.25 units)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

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