Saturday, June 6th Recap

 

Victory Five vs Dominus (Net: +3.38 units)

It appears that Dominus want to play the same top-centric strategy again this season. I don’t want to jump to conclusions in just one series but that’s the only data point we have so far. As predicted, the new look Victory Five played a much more traditional composition and they were fine. The numbers popped off the page in this matchup but Victory Five still didn’t do a lot to create opportunities on their own and it took some colossal Dominus mishaps to blow these games open. That said, they get points for taking advantage of mistakes, something they struggled with the entirety of last season. SamD and ppgod looked excellent but it was against another rookie duo so I don’t want to jump to any wild conclusions yet. This series was 75% Dominus sucking and 25% Victory Five playing well. Victory Five didn’t look like they knew how to close and nearly punted the second game after taking inhibitors the first time. It’s not surprising considering this team hasn’t done a lot of winning, they’re going to have to get comfortable doing that and re-learn how to close a game out.

OMG vs Royal Never Give Up (Net: +0.44 units)

Xiaohu made a statement with this game. This is one of the good things about having a threatening backup. Now, to say Xiaohu needed that wouldn’t be fair, he was awesome last season but it was really refreshing to see him put on this kind of performance and put a good adversary, Icon, in the dumpster. New was actually really impressive in his debut as well. OMG still look like a team that’s suffering from the same systemic problems that have plagued them throughout 2020. They’ll probably beat the bottom of the table teams and that’s about it and they’ll probably drop a series or two to them over the course of the season too.

Daily Total Net: +3.82 units

Solid day. Onto the next one!

 

LPL Summer 2020

Week 1 – Day 3

 

Team WE -172 (-1.5 maps @ +173) vs

Suning Gaming +135 (+1.5 maps @ -227)

 

Kill Total: 27.5 (-112 over / -116 under)

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 11.5

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -103 / +4.5 @ -110

Time Total: OTB

Starting Lineups:

WE – Morgan, Beishang, Teacherma, Jiumeng, Missing

SN – Bin, SofM, Angel, Huanfeng, SwordArt

Trends:

Team WE were 3 – 3 (2 – 4 ATS) as favorites in Spring

Team WE were 2 – 2 (1 – 3 ATS) as favorites > -200

Suning were 5 – 5 (7 – 3 ATS) as underdogs in Spring

Team WE won the Spring meeting 2 – 0 as +118 underdogs

 

This line opened -222 / +164 and was adjusted down and then STILL bet down further.

What makes this series intriguing is that Suning more or less got a free win from LNG who just rolled over and died multiple times. On the other side, Team WE likely should have been decisively 2-0’d by EDG before a gigantic punt before the dragon soul point fourth dragon in game two that would eventually turn the series around in Team WE’s favor. In both cases we want to give credit where it’s due for taking advantage of opponents mistakes but we should also be critical and temper expectations.

So is this line movement an overreaction? The answer is… sort of. The adjustment made sense given the nature of the wins each team had but did not factor in the quality of opponents. WE were being thoroughly stomped by EDG, a good team, through 1.5 games. Suning simply took what LNG, a bad team, gave them. I think an adjustment was in order because the initial number was too large but that betting it down further feels a bit heavy handed.

I’ll be passing on the side in this series. I missed the boat on any value left in the Suning number at enough of an edge. I’d still lean Suning if I was forced to take a side but the number looks close to me.

Other markets:

My Composite Combined Kills per Game (cCKPG) has this kill total at 28.35 kills. My odds-weighted projection, which is an odds-weighted blend of kills per win (KPW) and kills per loss (KPL) composite averages has this total at 28.68  kills. Time-total implied kills (avg of both teams CKPM*implied time total) is 29.92 kills. In a projected underdog win, in this case Suning, 26.39 kills.

Team WE are extremely bloody winners which makes sense when you consider that they like to get out of lanes and force the issue to get ahead in games. Suning were surprisingly bloody losers scoring 10.09 kills per loss last season and scoring more than 11 kills in 50% of their losses. Those factors explain why these total projections are as high as they are. At a combined 1.76 kills per minute we have one of the bloodier matchups we’ll see and neither of these teams has changed much even after seeing a series from each. The last time these two faced off there were 104 kills in three games (34.66 avg).

Suning had low kill totals in their first match this season because LNG sort of rolled over and died. WE won’t be doing that so even in a Suning win we can expect a chippy affair. Taking into consideration the Spring-to-Summer trends I’ve mentioned in the past few posts AND these two teams, I like the over even at the somewhat high number of 27.5 but I’m also going to take some small shots at the alternate totals because if this is anything remotely close to the last time these two teams faced off it’s going to be a complete bloodbath.

As with most of the games this week I like any time total UNDER 34:00 or better.

My Picks:

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 27.5 @ -112 (0.56 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 28.5 @ +107 (0.2 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 29.5 @ +125 (0.1 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 30.5 @ +146 (0.1 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 31.5 @ +169 (0.1 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 27.5 @ -111 (0.555 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 28.5 @ +110 (0.2 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 29.5 @ +129 (0.1 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 30.5 @ +150 (0.1 units)

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 34:00 @ ??? (??? units)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 34:00 @ ??? (??? units)

 

 

BiliBili Gaming +126 (+1.5 maps @ -250) vs

Vici Gaming -161 (-1.5 maps @ +188)

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (-123 over / -105 under)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -119 / -4.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 14.5

Time Total: OTB

Starting Lineups:

BLG – Kingen, l3est16, FoFo, Wings, XinMo

VG – Cube, Aix, Forge, iBoy, Hang

Trends:

Vici were 4 – 4 (2 – 6 ATS) as favorites in Spring

BiliBili were 4 – 5 (8 – 1 ATS) as underdogs in Spring

BiliBili were 3 – 1 (4 – 0 ATS) as underdogs shorter than +180 in Spring

BiliBili won the Spring meeting 2 – 1 as -179 favorites in week one back in January

 

Finally we get our first data point on the BiliBili roster for Summer and it doesn’t include Jinjiao or… wait a minute, Meteor? Weird. My guess here is they want to give the prospects a shot to prove themselves or maybe give the veterans some time off? Either way all we can do is evaluate this as it is. I’d assume Vici need more time to get Leyan comfortable so they’re just running back the same roster from the end of Spring.

We don’t know whether or not BiliBili have been working with the two new guys behind the scenes or not but as I wrote about in my roster moves article, it certainly feels like BiliBili were preparing to add a free agent ADC when they announced that start veteran Jinjiao would be role swapping to support shortly after the Spring season ended and it was followed by no news for almost a month before officially promoting l3est16 and Wings. How much time they’ve had is up for debate and might be a factor here although it’s tough to judge just how much so.

These are both teams that I’m a bit bullish on for Summer, especially Vici, but these lineups are giving us a bit of a curveball to start things off. Initially I was going to take a shot on BiliBili as week one underdogs but with Vici bringing back a roster that was successful and steadily improving last season and the number already being bet down a tad from the -170 opening number I’m going to go with Vici here on the moneyline. This is the first full off-season with Kkoma, arguably the greatest coach in the history of the game, and one that uses information and sample size to make adjustments better than anybody else has over the years. Vici are also have the continuity advantage in this situation. I like BiliBili’s long-term prospects for this season but it’s a big difference when your best player (Meteor) is out of the lineup and you’re ALSO starting two new guys.

 

Other Markets:

My Composite Combined Kills per Game (cCKPG) has this kill total at 24.15 kills. My odds-weighted projection, which is an odds-weighted blend of kills per win (KPW) and kills per loss (KPL) composite averages has this total at 23.63 kills. Time-total implied kills (avg of both teams CKPM*implied time total) is 24.48 kills. In a projected underdog win, in this case BiliBili, 25.05 kills.

These two teams are often mischaracterized as “LCK style” teams based on their coaches and numbers. In game it’s often not the case. Both of these teams are excellent tempo teams and love pushing the pace of the game if they’re able to. Both can play late game well and if it comes to it they will, unlike some LPL teams, but it’s certainly not their preferred mode. The numbers would suggest these two teams are extremely passive but as we know the numbers don’t always tell the full story. I always like opportunities like this to take advantage of an erroneous narrative.

Roster moves tend to add some sloppiness in general due to less crisp communication, altered gameplans, and other factors. This metagame, as it’s shaping up so far, appears to be a bit more skirmish oriented with fewer multi-tank teams, more bruisers and backline divers (see Wukong and the jungle pool) that result in a lot of fighting and a lot of “ugly” fights where teams are often trading kills. Combine all of that with our Spring-to-Summer trend and this is a spot where I’m going against my numbers to take the over.

I’ll also be on the under time total at 34:00 once it’s posted. Again, tempo teams and the fact that I think the most likely outcome is a crisp Vici snowball.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Vici Gaming -161 (1.61 units)

Spread: Vici Gaming -1.5 maps @ +188 (0.5 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 24.5 @ -123 (0.615 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 23.5 @ -167 (0.835 units) (or 24.5 if posted at your book)

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 34:00 @ ??? (??? units)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 34:00 @ ??? (??? units)

 

 

See you all tomorrow!

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