Saturday, June 5th Recap

 

Team Solo Mid vs Evil Geniuses (Net: -2.0 units)

Dignitas vs FlyQuest (Net: no action)

Cloud 9 vs 100 Thieves (Net: +3.52 units)

CLG vs Team Liquid (Net: -1.65 units)

Immortals vs Golden Guardians (Net: -1.0 units)

 

Daily Net Total: -1.13 units

 


LCS Summer 2021

Week One – Day Three

 

 

100 Thieves -169 vs Dignitas +131

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -104 / under -125)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -105 / +6.5 @ -123

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -118 / under -111)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -293 / +220

Suggested Play: 100 Thieves (strong)

I absolutely loved the game plan from 100 Thieves with the Karma + melee carries setup they had yesterday but admittedly this was just a bizarre draft from Cloud 9 that put them in a terrible situation, particularly for Perkz. Dignitas with the near perfect game against FlyQuest shows that they’re in good form as well.

This line has come down from the -222 / +162 opener which is quite a big overreaction in general. I’ll be on 100 Thieves here. I’m not quite as bullish on them as the model given how early in the season it is and how well Dignitas have been playing but I think we’re getting way too much line value not to take some 100 Thieves.

 

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: 100 Thieves -208 (2.08 units)(from 5/31)

Moneyline: 100 Thieves -169 (1.69 units) (add on)

 


 

FlyQuest +140 vs Evil Geniuses -182

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -122 / under -105)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -110 / -5.5 @ -118

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -130 / under +100)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +183 / -242

Suggested Play: Evil Geniuses

I normally hate backing Evil Geniuses as favorites but again this is just too much line value to ignore. EG completely threw away that game against TSM yesterday. I’m not sure if this is an overreaction to that or not but this opened -200 and FlyQuest haven’t really done anything to make me think they’ve got a strong shot here.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Evil Geniuses -200 (2 units)(from 5/31)

Moneyline: Evil Geniuses -182 (1.82 units) (add on)

 


 

Team Liquid -106 vs Cloud 9 -119

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -120 / under -108)

Kill Spread: -0.5 @ -112 / +0.5 @ -115

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -110 / under -119)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -102 / -124

Suggested Play: none

I backed Liquid earlier in the week at +103 obviously without knowing the incoming Alphari situation but Cloud 9 have looked a little off, perhaps the hangover narrative kicking in but also in drafts, and Liquid looked fine with Jenkins yesterday. Hindsight is 20/20 but I probably would have just passed on this contest knowing what I know now. I could hedge and cut losses here but I’m just going to let it ride as is. Still close to a 50/50 to me.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Team Liquid +103 (1 unit)(from 5/31)

 


 

Golden Guardians +394 vs Team Solo Mid -588

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -122 / under -105)

Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -109 / -8.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 16.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -128 / under -101)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +303 / -423

Suggested Play: Golden Guardians

Golden Guardians quickly turned back into a pumpkin yesterday with Immortal completely smashing them but again, try not to overreact to two days of games. I like the kill spread for GGS here quite a bit. TSM haven’t been “big” winners this season and their games, much like Liquid’s are frequently lower scoring and closer in kills as they win on the map. Lower total, higher spread, just hold your nose and back the underdogs here.

 

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Golden Guardians +8.5 kills @ -109 (1.09 units)(from 5/31)

 


 

Counter Logic Gaming -101 vs Immortals -125

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -116 / under -111)

Kill Spread: +0.5 @ -112 / -0.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -156 / under +120)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -139 / +110

Suggested Play: CLG

The model likes CLG here but it’s hard to deny Immortals form this weekend taking out 100 Thieves and smashing GGS. I had a feeling this team would take a step forward and they have, at least so far anyway. I would have backed CLG here but given the form for both teams at the moment I’m just going to pass on this one.

My Picks:

no wagers

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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