Saturday, June 26th Recap

 

RareAtom vs Team WE (Net: pending)

OMG vs BiliBili Gaming (Net: pending)

Royal Never Give Up vs FunPlus Phoenix (Net: pending)

 

Gen.G vs Afreeca Freecs (Net: pending)

Fredit Brion vs Nongshim RedForce (Net: pending)

 

SK Gaming vs Excel Esports (Net: pending)

Schalke 04 vs Misfits (Net: pending)

Rogue vs Astralis (Net: pending)

Vitality vs MAD Lions (Net: pending)

G2 Esports vs Fnatic (Net: pending)

 

Liquid vs CLG (Net: pending)

FlyQuest vs Dignitas (Net: pending)

Cloud 9 vs 100 Thieves (Net: pending)

Evil Geniuses vs TSM (Net: pending)

Golden Guardians vs Immortals (Net: pending)

 

Just to reiterate again, I’ll be off the grid this weekend so apologies in advance for the briefer breakdowns and recaps will come next week. I’m essentially doing my entire weekend worth of writing on Thursday.

 

LPL Net Total: —

LCK Net Total: —

LEC Net Total: —

LCS Net Total: —

 

Daily Net Total: —

 


 

LPL Summer 2021

Week Three – Day Seven

 

For this weekend, all writeups assume typical starters. Again I’ll be out of commission so if you have a question regarding a substitution and how it impacts things ask John or Josh in the Discord and evaluate that against my opinions here.

 

Suning Gaming -286 (-1.5 maps @ +115, +1.5 @ -1111)

vs

LGD Gaming +205 (+1.5 maps @ -154, -1.5 @ +561)

 

Map Moneyline: SN -233 / LGD +169

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -125 / under -108)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -115 / +6.5 @ -118

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -114 / under -118)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  -155 / +116 (map), -179 / +134 (series), +175 / -243 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: LGD +1.5 maps and series moneyline

Starters:

SN –

LGD –

League Rank Suning Tale of the Tape LGD League Rank
480.6 Gold Diff @ 10 min -617.0
1212.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1012.2
1075.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1387.5
23.6 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -5.8
73.5 Gold Diff / min first 20 -29.1
492.0 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 390.5
1860.8 Gold /min (GPM) 1806.8
84.9 Gold / min vs Avg 30.9
86.7 Gold Diff / min 10.1
1.2 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.2
2.0 1667.3 Kill Agnostic GPM 1590.3 10.0
12.0 53.1 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -7.5 10.0
7.0 1969.0 GPM in wins 1916.3 13.0
13.0 310.2 Gold Diff per min in wins 266.4 15.0
3.0 1698.5 GPM in losses 1675.4 5.0
5.0 -248.5 Gold Diff per min in losses -297.5 10.0
95.5 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 18.9
7.0 23.9 Win-Adjusted GPM -28.8 13.0
13.0 -18.2 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -62.0 15.0
46.7 Dragon Control % 41.7
45.0 Herald Control % 54.5
40.0 Baron Control % 60.0
4.0 Quality Wins? 2.0
66.7 % of wins as Quality 33.3

 

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 32.736%
2 1 28.012%
1 2 20.947%
0 2 18.306%
(Series Win): 60.747%

This looks pretty clear cut and simple as a play on the underdog but a few of the adjusted metrics are really indicative of why I’m skeptical about LGD’s actual level. Still, I think this is a big enough deviation from the number that it’s worth a play on the underdogs here even though I’m a little more bearish on LGD than the model is.

LGD first herald and first blood were both flagged in the model. We’ll go with herald in this instance.

My Picks:

Map Spread: LGD +1.5 maps @ -154 (1.54 units)

Moneyline: LGD +205 (0.5 units)

Map Spread: LGD -1.5 maps @ +561 (0.1 units)

Prop: Map 1 LGD first herald @ +108 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 LGD first herald @ +108 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 3 LGD first herald @ +108 (1 unit)

 

 


 

Invictus Gaming +152 (+1.5 maps @ -227, -1.5 @ +384)

vs

LNG Esports -217 (-1.5 maps @ +167, +1.5 @ -625)

 

Map Moneyline: IG +122 / LNG -164

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -119 / under -114)

Kill Spread: +3.5 @ -110 / -3.5 @ -122

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -116 / under -116)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  -134 / +101 (map), -148 / +107 (series), -293 / +209 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: Invictus series moneyline (strong)

Starters:

IG –

LNG –

League Rank LNG Tale of the Tape Invictus League Rank
-228.1 Gold Diff @ 10 min 212.1
90.6 Gold Diff @ 15 min 192.2
-262.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -512.5
27.3 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 44.5
67.8 Gold Diff / min first 20 46.7
524.5 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 265.1
1861.7 Gold /min (GPM) 1846.4
85.7 Gold / min vs Avg 70.4
184.3 Gold Diff / min 83.4
2.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.2
4.0 1634.0 Kill Agnostic GPM 1627.4 5.0
6.0 77.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 49.7 8.0
9.0 1933.9 GPM in wins 2003.5 2.0
10.0 319.3 Gold Diff per min in wins 383.3 4.0
7.0 1645.2 GPM in losses 1665.0 6.0
4.0 -221.0 Gold Diff per min in losses -262.7 7.0
193.0 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 92.1
9.0 -11.3 Win-Adjusted GPM 58.4 2.0
10.0 -9.1 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 54.9 4.0
48.6 Dragon Control % 65.9
56.3 Herald Control % 58.9
59.1 Baron Control % 72.2
8.0 Quality Wins? 11.0
66.7 % of wins as Quality 73.3

 

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
0 2 28.912%
1 2 26.732%
2 1 22.984%
2 0 21.372%
(Series Win): 44.356%

I’m not quite as bearish on LNG as the model is but I’ll call your attention to some of the adjusted metrics for LNG. Interesting and perhaps a sign of regression coming.

Generally speaking these teams are very evenly matched except LNG are the ones with the wins in the win column and lower expectations so people are hyped on the team that temporarily held first for a day. LNG are absolutely playing much better and I believe this is about as well positioned as they’re ever going to be in a metagame however this is now an over adjustment. This should be an even money series.

The only real caveat here is Invictus’ roster shuffling and the fact that arguably LNG’s greatest strength is their bottom lane while that’s Invictus’ weak spot. Can Puff and Baolan fix this situation? With how well the top trio has been playing all they need to do is be serviceable.

Just take the dogs this line is stupid.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Invictus +152 (1.5 units)

Map Spread: Invictus -1.5 maps @ +384 (0.5 units)

 


 

 

JD Gaming +189 (+1.5 maps @ -175, -1.5 @ +494)

vs

EDward Gaming -263 (-1.5 maps @ +131, +1.5 @ -909)

 

Map Moneyline: JDG +153 / EDG -208

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -114 / under -118)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -106 / -4.5 @ -128

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -109 / under -123)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  +129 / -173 (map), +157 / -213 (series), -209 / +155 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: none (miniscule edge on JDG price)

Starters:

JDG –

EDG –

League Rank EDG Tale of the Tape JDG League Rank
674.0 Gold Diff @ 10 min 462.3
1152.8 Gold Diff @ 15 min 738.2
875.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min 87.5
11.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 69.9
120.6 Gold Diff / min first 20 74.2
519.1 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 451.4
1865.3 Gold /min (GPM) 1836.3
89.4 Gold / min vs Avg 60.3
254.0 Gold Diff / min 85.7
3.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.1
3.0 1637.4 Kill Agnostic GPM 1601.3 8.0
1.0 131.7 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 41.2 7.0
15.0 1896.7 GPM in wins 1972.6 6.0
12.0 311.1 Gold Diff per min in wins 326.2 8.0
11.0 1614.1 GPM in losses 1618.1 10.0
2.0 -202.5 Gold Diff per min in losses -299.0 11.0
262.8 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 94.5
15.0 -48.4 Win-Adjusted GPM 27.5 6.0
12.0 -17.3 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -2.3 8.0
71.8 Dragon Control % 55.0
61.1 Herald Control % 32.0
64.3 Baron Control % 66.7
5.0 Quality Wins? 4.0
62.5 % of wins as Quality 50.0

 

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 35.797%
2 1 28.759%
1 2 19.308%
0 2 16.135%
(Series Win): 64.556%

The most interesting part about EDG was what made them so interesting last season as well. They weren’t exactly a blow you away stats team. Naturally, dragon stacking and scaling teams tend not to dominate the charts quite to the extent as their counterparts but EDG have fully embraced the Korean approach to the game and sure enough it’s working for them. EDG and FPX look like the best teams in the LPL to me, at least right now.

JDG have left me scratching my head a few times this season but every time I have questions they’re slowly but surely answering them. They aren’t exactly passing the tests with flying colors but they are getting the passing grades and slowly working through the weaknesses they have. Lpc has been decent in the showings that we’ve seen as well.

Unfortunately for JDG, EDG are not the type of team that they thrive against. JDG want to rough and tumble and bait teams into fights. EDG are too intelligent to fall for anything like that in most games. It’s not that JDG relies as heavily on this sort of concept as they did early on in the Spring split but it’s still a main part of their arsenal of tricks.

I’m passing on this one for now but I’m going to be interested to see how this line moves over the weekend. If we get any better a number I’ll probably take a piece of JDG and conversely if this shrinks I’ll buy some cheap EDG.

My Picks:

no wagers

 


 

LCK Summer

Week Three – Day Five

 

 

DRX +390 (+1.5 maps @ +117, -1.5 @ +1012)

vs

T1 -588 (-1.5 maps @ -149)

 

Map Moneyline: DRX +285 / T1 -400

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -118 / under -110)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -115 / -7.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -115 / under -112)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  +323 / -466 (map), +616 / -1136 (series), +150 / -194 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: T1 series moneyline and -1.5 maps

League Rank T1 Tale of the Tape DRX League Rank
352.5 Gold Diff @ 10 min -466.4
870.1 Gold Diff @ 15 min -269.6
969.3 Gold Diff @ 20 min -613.6
30.2 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -52.2
34.5 Gold Diff / min first 20 -69.7
261.2 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -598.9
1813.2 Gold /min (GPM) 1645.6
53.2 Gold / min vs Avg -114.4
100.4 Gold Diff / min -234.2
1.5 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -3.3
3.0 1627.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1568.6 9.0
2.0 55.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -141.8 10.0
6.0 1912.4 GPM in wins 1797.3 10.0
1.0 356.1 Gold Diff per min in wins 99.4 10.0
1.0 1689.1 GPM in losses 1607.6 7.0
2.0 -219.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -317.6 8.0
102.3 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -232.2
6.0 15.4 Win-Adjusted GPM -99.7 10.0
1.0 75.2 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -181.5 10.0
50.0 Dragon Control % 37.0
35.3 Herald Control % 20.0
58.3 Baron Control % 16.7
3.0 Quality Wins? 0.0
60.0 % of wins as Quality 0.0

 

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 62.975%
2 1 26.000%
1 2 6.763%
0 2 4.261%
(Series Win): 88.975%

Barring any sort of weird substitution here and even if that does happen, I think T1 are going to completely smash this. DRX look like the worst team in the league. As I’ve mentioned countless times already, they’re just not playing “current” League of Legends instead choosing to stick to what worked for them last season and that’s just sub-optimal right now.

If you want to play the dogs in this series DRX first dragon is a pretty big edge on market considering they’ve got a 60% rate and you can get a large plus money number but I think T1 just roll.

 

My Picks:

Map Spread: T1 -1.5 maps @ -149 (1.49 units)

 


 

 

KT Rolster -135 (-1.5 maps @ +219, +1.5 @ -455)

vs

Liiv Sandbox +102 (+1.5 maps @ -312, -1.5 @ +298)

 

Map Moneyline: KT -132 / LSB +100

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -120 / under -112)

Kill Spread: -2.5 @ -118 / +2.5 @ -115

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +106 / under -145)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  —

Model Suggested Play: —-

League Rank KT Tale of the Tape LSB League Rank
259.0 Gold Diff @ 10 min -45.0
24.1 Gold Diff @ 15 min 333.4
2.8 Gold Diff @ 20 min 440.4
25.0 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 35.2
21.8 Gold Diff / min first 20 23.0
-104.0 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 26.9
1765.4 Gold /min (GPM) 1763.7
5.4 Gold / min vs Avg 3.8
-7.6 Gold Diff / min -31.9
-0.1 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.5
8.0 1591.2 Kill Agnostic GPM 1613.4 4.0
5.0 -4.2 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -2.9 7.0
1.0 1948.3 GPM in wins 1913.9 5.0
2.0 343.4 Gold Diff per min in wins 217.6 9.0
6.0 1612.9 GPM in losses 1576.0 9.0
6.0 -300.1 Gold Diff per min in losses -343.8 9.0
-5.6 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -29.9
1.0 51.2 Win-Adjusted GPM 16.8 5.0
2.0 62.5 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -63.3 9.0
45.8 Dragon Control % 44.7
47.6 Herald Control % 70.6
50.0 Baron Control % 40.0
4.0 Quality Wins? 1.0
80.0 % of wins as Quality 50.0

 

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
0 2 31.095%
1 2 27.511%
2 1 21.825%
2 0 19.569%
(Series Win): 41.394%

The model is more bullish on this position than I am but I would have taken whoever the underdog was in this matchup (as long as it was plus money). I think KT and Sandbox are fairly evenly matched and should be challenging for the final playoff spots come the end of the season.

Model flagged Sandbox first herald as the strongest available play in this match so I’ll be on that as well. The map one line on it is just incorrect at at least two books. The map two line of -172 is more accurate so we’ll play map one at least.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Liiv Sandbox +102 (1 unit)

Map Spread: Liiv Sandbox -1.5 maps @ +298 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 1 Sandbox first herald @ +100 (1 unit)

 


LCS Summer 2021

Week Four – Day Three

 

Dignitas +129 vs Evil Geniuses -169

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -116 / under -111)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -105 / -4.5 @ -123

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -125 / under -104)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  DIG +211 / EG -290

Model Suggested Play: Evil Geniuses moneyline

 

I’m going to be on the Evil Geniuses moneyline and the kill total over in this one. Both are double digit advantages on the market price according to my models. I actually like the move to Contractz for Evil Geniuses but I do think people are jumping on the Svenskeren hate train a little too much. He’s fine and I don’t think either playing ultimately impacts this handicap in a big way in either direction.

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: Evil Geniuses -169 (3.38 units)

Kill Total: OVER 25.5 @ -116 (2.32 units)

 


 

Immortals +184 vs 100 Thieves -244

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -123 / under -105)

Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -114 / -6.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -112 / under -116)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  IMT +137 / 100T -178

Model Suggested Play: Immortals moneyline

100 Thieves are the best team in the LCS right now and the model agrees wholeheartedly but this number is just a little disrespectful to how well Immortals have been playing. They’re essentially tied in second with Cloud 9 in the model. I’ll take a shot on the underdogs here. I also like the kill total under with these two teams going under the total less than 45% of games this season.

 

My Picks:

Kill Spread (alt): Immortals +5.5 kills @ +110 (1 unit)

Moneyline: Immortals +184 (0.5 units)

Kill Total (alt): UNDER 24.5 @ -128 (1.28 units)

 


 

Team Solo Mid -128 vs Team Liquid +100

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -118 / under -110)

Kill Spread: -1.5 @ -116 / +1.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -103 / under -127)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  TSM -110 / TL -116

Model Suggested Play: Liquid moneyline (very light)

 

Obviously the number here is using priors mostly from the “old Liquid” but with substitutions and all of the machinery going on in the background the veteran player leadership is keeping Liquid afloat. We should rule this team out just because they’re dealing with some turmoil and I mentioned that on Friday. TSM does feel like the right side here to me but I don’t have enough of an inclination either way so I’m going to pass on a side.

 

My Picks:

Kill Total (alt): UNDER 25.5 @ -130 (1.3 units)

Prop: TSM first blood @ -114 (1.14 units)

 

 


 

FlyQuest -154 vs Golden Guardians +121

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -105 / under -123)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -110 / +4.5 @ -118

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -102 / under -127)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: FLY +123 / GGS -157

Model Suggested Play: Golden Guardians moneyline

 

FlyQuest are in the midst of a six game losing streak which includes Dignitas and Golden Guardians in it. By the model they’re BY FAR the worst team in the LCS so far this Summer. While I’m a little impressed that it’s not Golden Guardians, I’m not at all surprised that this team hasn’t really gone anywhere or really improved while the rest of the league has. I mentioned this in my pre-season preview.

I never in a million years thought I’d say it but in the Summer season Golden Guardians are simply playing better than FlyQuest are and I’m backing them confidently here (clip that sentence…)

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: Golden Guardians +121 (1 unit)

Prop: Golden Guardians first herals @ -122 (1.22 units)

 


 

CLG +189 vs Cloud 9 -250

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -125 / under -103)

Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -108 / -6.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -149 / under +114)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  CLG +109 / C9 -139

Model Suggested Play: CLG monelyine

CLG have the unfortunate schedule this weekend facing Cloud 9, Liquid, and Immortals so if they go 0-3 I wouldn’t be all that surprised. With that said, Cloud 9 are back to Zven in the lineup but it’s tough to really get a read on where they’re at given that they beat GGS and lost decisively to 100 Thieves.

It feels ugly but I think I’m going to back CLG here. For how inconsistent Cloud 9 have been over the course of the entire Summer season I just don’t think they deserve to be this large a favorite over anybody until they prove otherwise. It’s actually frustrating because some of their underlying metrics suggest that we’ve got a bit of a sleeping giant here. Their Kill Agnostic economy is far and away the best in the LCS and it’s not remotely close even over 100 Thieves. This has been a very strong correlation to the best teams across the globe so I’m skeptical to fade them but they’ve just not been executing well all Summer long.

 

My Picks:

Time Total: OVER 31:00 @ -149 (1.49 units)

Kill Spread: CLG +6.5 kills @ -108 (1.08 units)

Moneyline: CLG +189 (0.5 units)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and you can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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