First of all Happy Fathers Day to all the dads out there! I hope you have a wonderful day with friends and family!
Saturday, June 20th Recap
Dominus vs OMG (Net: +1.565 units)
Game one was a bit of a clown fiesta with a lot of poor play from both sides. Game two was a pretty clean snowball from OMG. I don’t know this series was the toilet bowl in the LPL as far as I’m concerned and when one of those teams brings a few minor leaguers up in what’s appearing to be a mailed in season already it makes it even less exciting to watch.
LGD Gaming vs TOP Esports (Net: +1.0 units)
TOP brought it back with some brilliant macro decision making and team movement to defeat a quadruple infernal dragon soul which is absolutely ridiculous. The next game was a complete stomping. This team is really good. The broadcast, which I take issue with on a number of things, made some good points about how this team just has the raw talent to play their way out of poor situations. When you combine that with a good big picture understanding of the game, something that’s sorely lacking in the LPL, it adds up to equal an elite LPL team. TOP have very limited company right now, especially with JDG and FPX floundering a bit of late. I trust those teams will get it together but TOP look like the best team in the LPL right now.
LPL Total: +2.565 units
Afreeca vs Dynamics (Net: no action)
I tweeted a lot about this series. I absolutely love the urgency and pace that Dynamics play with for a new LCK team. Obviously they have some veterans which helps but this team looks very polished and very fundamentally sound. They understand their win conditions, their opponents win conditions, identify windows of opportunity both from ahead and behind, and mechanically have shown the ability to hang. They understand that taking a 15% chance opportunity is better than waiting for it to become 2% and conversely understand when a situation is more of an 80-20 and pounce rather than letting it normalize back to a coin-flip. They waste no time and they’re very efficient. This team is good and I’d expect them to challenge the playoff bubble teams.
In reality I think Afreeca are just playing excellently right now. The only thing Dynamics did wrong in this series was get outplayed. Simply put Afreeca are hot right now just like they were early last season. This metagame is outstanding for them and until teams find a way to adjust to dealing with the champion pools of Kiin, Mystic, and Fly at the same time then Afreeca are probably going to challenge everybody they face.
T1 vs Hanwha Life (Net: -1.67 units)
Canna absolutely dumpstered Dudu in game one and it was looking that way again in game two before a couple tremendous outplays. Game two was a really slick map maneuver by Hanwha to bait T1 into taking dragon, preventing soul from Hanwha, and Hanwha just running mid and ending the game by stopping recalls. Game three was back to reality. It was a bit of a brutal beat because it looked like T1 had stabilized before that nice play by Hanwha and they swiftly demolished them again in game three. T1 probably win 8 or 9 out of 10 games and we just caught the one but credit to Hanwha.
T1 look great. Surprising I know. Hanwha had an absolutely embarrassing series in the first one that raised a lot of red flags but they’ve put at least a few things to rest. In other words they went to get the fire extinguisher for the dumpster fire, they still need to put some of the fires out. Viper and Lehends are going to have to 2v8 for awhile until this team can figure out how to not get blown out early.
LCK Total: -1.67 units
SK Gaming vs Excel (Net: +1.79 units)
This was a nice turn around by Excel who took the lead early and never really let go. Special had a few VERY questionable moments in this one and honestly looked a bit tilted. After a fight didn’t quite work out in the mid game he had two separate instances where he forced plays and mechanically misplayed it.
I’m not concerned for SK Gaming. Excel just got them in this one.
Misfits vs Schalke (Net: +0.5 units)
Not a particularly good or bad game for either team in this one. It was just a slow, back-and-forth scaling war where eventually Misifts outscaled with Febiven’s Azir. Not much to see here.
Vitality vs MAD Lions (Net: +1.5 units)
I love the MAD Lions. This went more or less how I anticipated although that baron steal ended up making this a higher kill affair than I’d anticipated.
G2 Esports vs Rogue (Net: +0.5 units)
This team is so good. Look at this team composition. You’ve got good lanes and you can play to the outer lanes through TF but this is such a glass cannon despite having the Kayle. You have so little margin for error in this game and you’re doing it against a fundamentally sound game. This is G2 challenging themselves and succeeding. This game was way WAY more impressive than people are giving it credit for.
Fnatic vs Origen (Net: -1.3425 units)
The Soraka carry again. I think people are overreacting to it losing twice against good teams. The strategy is extremely potent and has been terrorizing high elo solo queue across the globe for months now. There’s something to it, the kinks just need to be worked out. I love Fnatic running it back again in this spot although admittedly it felt a bit forced picking it in the first rotation. This is getting Fnatic all sorts of equity for later in the season.
Parlay: -0.5 units
LEC Total: +2.4475 units
100 Thieves vs Liquid (Net: +1.0 units)
Fairly clinical by Team Liquid yet again.
FlyQuest vs TSM (Net: no action)
Cloud 9 vs Evil Geniuses (Net: no action)
CLG vs Dignitas (Net: no action)
LCS Total: +1.0 units
Daily Total Net: +4.3425 units
LPL Summer 2020
Week 3 – Day 7
Suning Gaming -200 (-1.5 maps @ +157) vs
Rogue Warriors +155 (+1.5 maps @ -200, -1.5 @ +397)
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -125 / under -104)
Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 10.5
Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -110 / +5.5 @ -119
Time Total: OTB
SN – Bin, SofM, Angel, Huanfeng, SwordArt
RW – Crazy, Youdang, Ruby, ZWuji, Ley
Trends:
Suning are 5-6 against the kill spread this season
Kill totals have gone under in 7 out of 12 Suning games
Suning have played five series and are 2-3 (3-2 ATS)
Rogue Warriors have only played twice (vs IG, TOP)
Rogue Warriors won the Spring meeting 2-0 as +161 underdogs back in January
It’s not often that we get a team that’s played three more series than the other but it does happen a few times per season. Rogue Warriors have drawn some brutal outs in the reinvigorated Invictus Gaming and TOP Esports in their first two series. They were competitive in about one and a half of these games including game one against TOP which they essentially won (the one auto attack on the nexus game…). Rogue Warriors were our favorite punch up underdog last season going 10-3 against the map spread despite going just 5-8 outright as underdogs. Suning are a significant downgrade in quality and I fully expect them to be competitive in this series especially with an extra three series to see how teams are preparing against Suning. This is an “underdog special.”
Other markets:
cCKPG: 25.55
Time-projected: 26.12
Implied-Odds: 24.45
Underdog Win: 24.41
“G” Projected Total: 25.77
My Picks:
Spread: Rogue Warriors +1.5 maps @ -200 (2 units)
Moneyline: Rogue Warriors +155 (0.5 units)
Spread: Rogue Warriors -1.5 maps @ +397 (0.25 units)
Invictus Gaming -156 (-1.5 maps @ +187) vs
EDward Gaming +122 (+1.5 maps @ -244, -1.5 @ +321)
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -128 / under -102)
Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -115 / +3.5 @ -114
Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 12.5
Time Total: OTB
IG – TheShy, Ning, Rookie, Puff, Southwind
EDG – Aodi, JunJia, Scout, Hope, Meiko
Trends:
Combined these teams have gone under the kill total in 9 out of 14 games
Invictus appear to be back, at least in some capacity looking excellent in their two most recent series albeit against weaker competition in Suning and Rogue Warriors. EDG present a stronger challenge. EDG look their same old steady selves regardless of who is playing jungle for them. Their overall solid foundation makes them very consistent but this will be their most difficult test of the season as well.
Historically, EDG aren’t completely awful against the elite individual talent or top teams in the LPL but they haven’t been great either. This isn’t an Rogue/Origen vs G2 type situation. The real question here is whether or not you trust Invictus or if you think their struggles will rear their ugly head again. I’m personally not buying it. Invictus look much better and appear to have recaptured some of their swagger but they’re still playing a suboptimal style and just brute forcing it through with premium talent.
This seems like it’s going to be a 2-0 either way. If IG are on form then the Aodi vs TheShy matchup is problematic but if IG aren’t I could easily see EDG dispatching them fairly easily. With the 2-0 prop at +200 for IG you could create a synthetic line that’s better than the under 2.5 maps with higher upside if EDG win and a slightly smaller payout if IG sweep.
Instead of going that route I’m just going to stick with the dogs as I think EDG have a reasonable chance of taking this series outright.
Other Markets:
cCKPG: 23.64
Time-projected: 22.99
Implied-Odds: 22.43
Underdog Win: 22.62
“G” Projected Total: 23.03
This is a slam dunk under bet. Both of these teams have a history of reasonably high kill totals, Invictus extremely high but they aren’t the same teams anymore and this isn’t the metagme for it. Invictus have shown a willingness to commit to a split push with things like Twisted Fate and Quinn and Aodi has displayed the ability to play champions like Fiora in the past as well. Invictus also prefer to have an extended laning phase with limited skirmishing even with Ning reincorporated.
My Picks:
Spread: EDG +1.5 maps @ -244 (1.22 units)
Moneyline: EDG +122 (0.25 units)
Spread: EDG -1.5 maps @ +321 (0.1 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 24.5 @ -102 (1.02 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 24.5 @ +104 (0.5 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 25.5 @ -116 (0.58 units)
LCK Summer 2020
Week 1 – Day 5
KT Rolster +186 (+1.5 maps @ -152, -1.5 @ +448) vs
Gen.G Esports -256 (-1.5 maps @ +112)
Kill Total: 21.5 (over -118 / under -118)
Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -139 / -5.5 @ +100
Team Kill Totals: OTB
Time Total: OTB
KT Rolster ran into a buzzsaw against a surprisingly polished Team Dynamics who played at a very high level in their first series and excellently in their second this morning. I’m not holding this loss against KT Rolster but they’ll get no reprieve immediately having to face the formidable Gen.G fresh off of a tough match against DragonX.
Based on the end of last season I would have taken a shot on KT Rolster in this spot no hesitation. This time I’m a bit hesitant because I’m not entirely sure how much time this new roster has had to gel. I’m also not opposed to the idea that perhaps this crew of veterans are just naturally slow starters as we saw in Spring although I wouldn’t put too much stock into that thought.
Underdogs covered the spread 56 out of 90 tries (62.2%) in the regular season last split and 37 out of 66 times (56.1%) when the underdog had odds of +160 or longer. Those percentages don’t justify this selection based on the implied odds but KT Rolster were 9-3 against the map spread last season and 6-2 against the spread as underdogs of +162 or longer odds. This is a different team and there are certainly questions but I’d expect a stronger performance here, enough so that I’m going to do an “underdog special” here.
Other Markets:
Waiting for more data. Didn’t see anything that really stuck out.
My Picks:
Spread: KT Rolster +1.5 maps @ -152 (1.52 units)
Moneyline: KT Rolster +186 (0.5 units)
Spread: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ +448 (0.25 units)
SeolHaeOne Prince +201 (+1.5 maps @ -156, -1.5 @ +492) vs
DAMWON Gaming -270 (-1.5 @ +122)
Kill Total: 22.5 (over -125 / under -104)
Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -116 / -5.5 @ -111
Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 14.5
Time Total: OTB
I wrote extensively about the red flags I saw in the first outing for SP (this is the abbreviation now). DAMWON looked like the good version of themselves in their first outing utterly trouncing Sandbox in a little under 49 minutes total between the two games. I normally hate laying big chalk early in the season but DAMWON tend to run hot and currently all of their players are dominating the solo queue ladder and individually outclassed their Sandbox counterparts, all of whom I’d rate as better players than SP’s players other than Hybrid. DAMWON also showed a willingness to aggressively counter known strategies utilizing the Syndra+Pantheon bottom lane to destroy Aphelios and Senna+Maokai in the first game to counter Syndra+Thresh. They showed more development in this single series than they did the entire Spring split. I’m backing DAMWON until they prove otherwise. I’m also fading SP until they prove otherwise. This is a perfect storm.
I’m just going to keep this simple and play the moneyline and map spread but if you wanted to dabble in alternate kill spreads I don’t hate that either. I’m just not sure if DAMWON are going to run the score up or not.
Other Markets:
Didn’t see anything that stuck out although I’d take any game time under 32:00 if they’re available to you. Normally I’d like fading the total coming off of an extreme outlier like we saw in SP’s last series but I don’t like relying on a team playing with their food. DAMWON look like they’re on a mission right now and I don’t think they’ll be messing around here especially after seeing T1 randomly punt one Saturday.
My Picks:
Moneyline: DAMWON -270 (2.7 units)
Spread: DAMWON -1.5 maps @ +122 (1 unit)
LCS Summer 2020
Week 2 – Day 3
LCS Trends:
Favorites are 12-4, 10-6 against the kill spread
No time totals have been posted but assuming a 32:00 total, under 6 out of 10
Team Liquid -112 vs Evil Geniuses -114
Kill Total: 19.5 (over -111 / under -118)
Kill Spread: +0.5 @ -112 / -0.5 @ -116
Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 9.5
Time Total: OTB
These two teams look like the second and third best teams in the LCS to me so far and it’s what I anticipated before the season. The difference is that I think Liquid are more like Fnatic over the past year or so in the LEC, the clear second best team but still a cut below G2. To me, Liquid is the Fnatic to Cloud 9’s G2 in the LCS. FlyQuest, Evil Geniuses, and TSM round out the top five.
This is appropriately even money by the books. They have no reason not to put this at even money as both of these teams have played excellent LOL so far but I’ll be on Team Liquid in this spot. Impact and Broxah should have a huge advantage on the top side of the map.
When you have close moneylines like this I always look to plus odds kill spreads since they’re a great value. Most games are won by significantly more than 1, 2, or 3 kills.
My Picks:
Kill Spread: Team Liquid -2.5 kills @ +116 (1 unit)
FlyQuest -270 vs Dignitas +205
Kill Total: 22.5 (over -110 / under -119)
Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -112 / +7.5 @ -116
Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 7.5
Time Total: OTB
Dignitas had a much better game yesterday against CLG and still lost… to CLG. FlyQuest demolished TSM and were up on Cloud 9. It turns out the FlyQuest model of reading the textbook, doing your homework, and just being solid is all you need to dominate in NA. Ok that was a bit facetious but Santorin has been outstanding through three games as well.
This feels too easy and normally like a spot where I’d fade the hype coming off of a dominant performance against a similarly rated team but I’m fading Dignitas until they show me they’re capable of closing with a lead.
My Picks:
Kill Spread: FlyQuest -7.5 kills @ -112 (1.12 units)
Golden Guardians +496 vs Cloud 9 -833
Kill Total: 21.5 (over -102 / under -128)
Kill Spread: +9.5 @ -116 / -9.5 @ -112
Team Kill Totals: 5.5 / 15.5
Time Total: OTB
What more is there to say about Cloud 9? I like this Golden Guardians team and think they’ll end up being the 6th playoff team when it’s all said and done. I like that they take the fight to you and are willing to skirmish and skill test. It’s going to make them a good punch up underdog.
This game is interesting to handicap. Due to the scrappy nature of GG’s mid/jungle duo I could see this being an ugly Cloud 9 win with a ton of kills which makes me like the kill spread and the over but if it goes too far then C9 could actually cover this.
I’ll be on the over and the Golden Guardians +9.5.
My Picks:
Kill Total: OVER 21.5 @ -102 (1.02 units)
Kill Spread: Golden Guardians +9.5 kills @ -116 (1.16 units)
100 Thieves -227 vs Immortals +172
Kill Total: 22.5 (over -106 / under -122)
Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -112 / +5.5 @ -116
Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 8.5
Time Total: OTB
Immortals look like the worst team in the league which was somewhat expected but they’ve still underwhelmed. 100 Thieves are almost definitley better than their 0-3 record considering their first three opponents are the top three teams of Cloud 9, Liquid, and Evil Geniuses. Until Immortals show us any signs of life I’m fading them. We’re getting a surprisingly low kill spread here given the number as well.
My Picks:
Kill Spread: 100 Thieves -5.5 kills @ -112 (1.12 units)
I’m going to play a couple small parlays on FlyQuest and 100 Thieves here as well split 75/25 on the moneylines and kill spreads.
Parlay (2): FlyQuest ML + 100 Thieves ML @ -103 (0.75 units)
Parlay (2): FlyQuest -7.5 kills + 100 Thieves -5.5 kills @ +257 (0.25 units)
