Saturday, June 19th Recap

 

RareAtom vs Victory Five (Net: -1.39 units)

EDward Gaming vs Rogue Warriors (Net: -2.62 units)

ThunderTalk vs FunPlus Phoenix (Net: +1.42 units)

 

DAMWON Kia Gaming vs DRX (Net: +2.0 units)

Afreeca Freecs vs KT Rolster (Net: +0.42 units)

 

Team Vitality vs SK Gaming (Net: -1.0 units)

Misfits vs Astralis (no action)

Schalke 04 vs MAD Lions (Net: +2.0 units)

Fnatic vs Excel Esports (Net: -1.0 units)

Rogue vs G2 Esports (no action)

 

 

Cloud 9 vs Immortals (pending)

CLG vs Evil Geniuses (pending)

Team Solo Mid vs Dignitas (pending)

100 Thieves vs FlyQuest (pending)

Golden Guardians vs Team Liquid (pending)

 

LPL Net Total: -2.59 units

LCK Net Total: +2.42 units

LEC Net Total: +0 units

LCS Net Total: pending

 

Daily Net Total: pending

 

 

Happy Father’s Day to those celebrating and make sure to take the time today to appreciate them in whatever manner you see fit.  Show some love, they’ll appreciate it.

 


 

LPL Summer 2021

Week Two – Day Seven

 

 

 

LGD Gaming +363 (+1.5 maps @ +100, -1.5 @ +1000)

vs

JDG Gaming -556 (-1.5 maps @ -132, +1.5 @ -3333)

 

Map Moneyline: LGD +281 / JDG -400

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -119 / under -109)

Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -110 / -8.5 @ -118

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 16.5

Time Total: 29:00 (over -130 / under +100)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  +247 / -343 (map), +410 / -654 (series), +107 / -142 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: none

Starters:

LGD – Garvey, Shad0w, Xiye, Kramer, Mark

JDG – Zoom, Kanavi, Yagao, LokeN, LvMao

 

JDG’s only game losses this season have been to LNG in their most recent series but they’ve been far from immaculate or anything despite their record. Clearly the players on this team are exceptional more or less across the board but for a team that SHOULD be dominating given the current metagame fitting them like a glove, especially Yagao, they look a little lost and befuddled in drafts at times. It also seems via context clues that they aren’t willing to play Gwen or Viego in solo lanes which is strange to me and could pose a problem if teams find a way to leverage that. JDG are in that no-man’s land limbo status where I can’t justify backing them because of their weird interpretation of the current patches but I also know the players are just so good that it sometimes won’t matter.

LGD have looked pretty good so far in Summer, much improved from Spring with the roster changes, but as I mentioned going into their last match, I think people were a little too overexcited about this team. This happens a lot when you’ve got a new, shiny toy (team). Everyone thinks they’re ahead of the curve and it creates this avalanche of overhype. LGD are firmly in the middle of the table for me. I don’t think they’ll be beating the good teams any time soon but they should steamroll the bottom of the table.

I want to believe LGD can get a game here but the top half of the map is just going to get completely dominated by JDG so I’m skeptical. At the same time I have enough questions about JDG’s current grasp on things and think LGD could just draft their way to a win in at least one of these games. I’m going to take a shot on the underdogs here. I also like the kill total over. JDG have gone over the kill total in all but one game this season and LGD are no strangers to scrapping early in a game.

My Picks:

Map Spread: LGD +1.5 maps @ +100 (1 unit)

Moneyline: LGD +363 (0.5 units)

Map Spread: LGD -1.5 maps @ +1000 (0.1 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 25.5 @ -119 (1.19 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 25.5 @ -125 (1.25 units)

 

 


 

BiliBili Gaming +162 (+1.5 maps @ -196, -1.5 @ +483)

vs

Suning Gaming -208 (-1.5 maps @ +151, +1.5 @ -769)

 

Map Moneyline: BLG +148 / SN -192

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -110 / -6.5 @ -118

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over +102 / under -133)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  +169 / -221 (map), +235 / -314 (series), -148 / +116 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: Suning series moneyline

Starters:

BLG – Biubiu, Weiwei, Zeka, Aiming, ppgod

SN – Bin, SofM, Angel, Huanfeng, ON

 

This match is a tests your evaluation of the actual mid tier teams against the top teams. Is it matchup dependent? Is it closer than a clean cut or are they still very clearly worse than the top teams? How big a difference is it?

Last split it was LNG who literally won a single series very early on and that was it against the top nine. I think the combination of the volatile meta and overall improvement closing at least some of the gap is going to make these matchups more interesting to handicap for teams like Bilibili, LNG (who maybe breaking this trend), and LGD who I have seated firmly in the mid tier. OMG is looking like they could potentially bust into that party too but we’ll see.

The model likes a play on Suning here primarily from priors but I think this iteration of BiliBili is a significant improvement despite the fact that they need to work on some things. I also think these teams are both well-positioned in the current metagame specifically with Zeka’s best champions being a few of the best in the game right now (Sett, Akali, Leblanc, Zoe, etc).

I’ll be on BiliBili here. They’ve taken EDG and LNG to three games and beat LGD in three as well. I also think this team is going to grow into a pretty good roster and one that will likely be challenging for a playoff spot if any of the top nine teams falter. Although it’s looking like maybe LNG could be way ahead of schedule in doing that already. I expect BiliBili to continue to improve and I like the players on this team quite a bit in the current state of things.

My Picks:

Map Spread: BiliBili +1.5 maps @ -196 (1.96 units)

Moneyline: BiliBili +162 (0.5 units)

Map Spread: BiliBili -1.5 maps @ +483 (0.25 units)

 


 

 

Royal Never Give Up -189 (-1.5 maps @ +168, +1.5 @ -588)

vs

LNG Esports +145 (+1.5 maps @ -217, -1.5 @ +389)

 

Map Moneyline: RNG -161 / LNG +125

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -105 / under -122)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -109 / +5.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -118 / under -110)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  -158 / +123 (map), -187 / +144 (series), +173 / -223 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: none

Starters:

LNG – Ale, Tarzan, Icon, Light, Iwandy

RNG – Xiaohu, Wei, Cryin, GALA, Ming

This line was -333 / +232 on Thursday afternoon when we recorded the podcast and it opened even more lopsided than that (ballpark -400 depending on where you looked). On the show I mentioned that RNG might not be well suited to this metagame and they came out a little rusty in their first match back from the break against OMG. Now, admittedly, OMG played an excellent series in this case. They weren’t a “bad” team on that day with a few hero performances by Cold , Creme, and Able. RNG are going to be fine.

On that show I mentioned that I wanted to bet LNG at +232 because I didn’t want to stand in the way of this train right now. They’re really feelin’ it so to speak but I think this number has come down to such a degree that I simply can’t pass on taking RNG here. This is a situation where we’re getting the double overreaction effect to the RNG loss to a “bad” team and LNG starting off as hot as they have and suddenly beating good teams, something they struggled mightily with last season.

I don’t think this is a slam dunk or anything but this is way way too cheap a price for RNG and, for what it’s worth, LNG’s performance metrics STRONGLY suggest a small regression. They’ve already won about two games more than a team with this level of objective control and overall economy metrics. LNG are red hot and well-positioned but this correction has gone a little too far toward the LNG side of things.

Buy low on RNG, sell high on LNG.

 

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: RNG -189 (3.78 units)

Map Spread: RNG -1.5 maps @ +168 (1 unit)

 


 

LCK Summer 2021

Week Two – Day Five

 

 

 

T1 -625 (-1.5 maps @ -164, +1.5 @ -3333)

vs

Liiv Sandbox +413 (+1.5 maps @ +124, -1.5 @ +1012)

 

Map Moneyline: T1 -312 / LSB +232

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -105 / under -122)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -125 / +6.5 @ -104

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 7.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -120 / under -108)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  -282 / +212 (map), -466 / +328 (series), -116 / -114 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: Sandbox +1.5 maps

 

I mentioned it in the previous T1 series but DO NOT rule out substitutions for this matchup. Do your due diligence and keep and eye out on social media a little before the match for lineup announcements. Joe Marsh and company mentioned that just because they’d primarily be sticking with one roster didn’t mean they wouldn’t be mixing in subs from time-to-time.

Sandbox nearly threw a game one where they had a 3500 gold lead but managed to end up stealing it back after punting a dragon soul and what would be a 6000 gold swing that would boost Hanwha into the lead. They proceeded to completely smash in game two off the back of Croco and Fate Diana+Sett combination completely blowing open the early mid game into an irrecoverable snowball.

Those that followed along last season know that Sandbox were one of the biggest positive regression candidates. They’ve essentially performed like the fourth or fifth best team in the LCK the majority of 2021 and shoot themselves in the foot with game-ending mistakes too often. Toward the end of Spring they started picking up some wins and finally delivering on those performance metrics but they’ve had a bit of a lukewarm start to Summer. To be clear Sandbox haven’t been bad at all just not quite as good as they were in Spring which makes me think they’ll get there eventually.

T1 look like one of the elite three in the LCK right now and it’s tough to want to go against them but this is a really big number for a team that has talent in LSB but if they’re going to make mid and late game mistakes nobody is better at returning punts than the elite LCK teams. I feel bad not playing this fat number but I’m only going to play it for half stake. There’s a non-zero chance T1 use a sub here which makes this look a little better. If that ends up being the case then I’ll upgrade this to a full sized “dog special (1, 0.5, and 0.25 units respectively)

My Picks:

Map Spread: LSB +1.5 maps @ +124 (0.5 units)

Moneyline: LSB +413 (0.25 units)

Map Spread: LSB -1.5 maps @ +1012 (0.1 units)

 


 

Fredit Brion +187 (+1.5 maps @ -169, -1.5 @ +496)

vs

Hanwha Life Esports -244 (-1.5 maps @ +131, +1.5 @ -833)

 

Map Moneyline: BRO +157 / HLE -204

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -118 / under -110)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -112 / -5.5 @ -115

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -118 / under -111)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  +212 / -284 (map), +329 / -470 (series), -112 / -115 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: Hanwha Life series moneyline and -1.5 maps

It’s important to keep in mind Brion’s priors here which are still being considered for the models numbers. For those that need a reminder of just how much worse they were…

Post Spring
Team Power # Rank
LSB -0.5257615511 7
DRX -0.5513585106 8
KT -0.9265625113 9
BRO -1.420573186 10

Yea…

The thing is, Brion look a lot better this season just like most of the bottom six teams do. Brion have taken to the new metagame well which is surprising considering they were exactly the opposite type of team in Spring season opting to scale and wait for mistakes. Their early games have been crisp, confident, and well executed. I’ve also liked their plans for them quite a bit. Brion are capable of snowballing a lead on anybody if they keep playing these out as well as they have been. The concern is that individually they’re lacking so they have to create advantages via the draft and can’t rely on a lot of individual outplays. In other words they’re playing on hard mode. They’re bringing a knife to a gun fight… whatever cliché tickles your fancy.

Hanwha were pretty dominant against the bottom teams last split despite their general sloppiness game-to-game. They take a lot of unnecessary risks which I’m never a fan of but they at least know who they are. I’m cutting Hanwha a little slack for their 0-6 start as well because two of the matches were against top ranked Gen.G and T1. Sandbox are no slouches either despite where they finished last season. Get out of the habit of thinking about where a team finished last season in the standings as an overall gauge of their ability.

I’m hesitant to back Hanwha in this spot especially because they’ve started with the roster carousel yet again. Generally I don’t like them as big or even moderate favorites like this but they’ve also struggled against the top teams so they’re one of these no-man’s land teams that are difficult to bet without having a qualitative reason to do so and even then it’s difficult to trust their systemic, by-design inconsistency. They’re just a volatile team. Think Evil Geniuses or MAD Lions.

I was going to throw caution to the wind a bit and play the Hanwha moneyline only here but the more I’m thinking about it, if you remove the competition levels they’ve faced from the equation, Brion’s film has just looked better this season to me. The only challenge to that angle is that Chovy is the best individual player in this game by a country mile. I think the underdogs are worth a play here though, half stake.

 

My Picks:

Map Spread: Brion +1.5 maps @ -169 (0.845 units)

Moneyline: Brion +187 (0.25 units)

Map Spread: Brion -1.5 maps @ +496 (0.1 units)

 


 

LCS Summer 2021

Week Three – Day Three

 

 

This LCS slate is actually a banger with three really interesting matches including the top four teams battling each other. Should actually be a good one for Sunday!

 

 

Counter Logic Gaming -116 vs Dignitas -109

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -112 / under -116)

Kill Spread: +1.5 @ -111 / -1.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -161 / under +124)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  +152 / -195

Model Suggested Play: Dignitas moneyline

 

I really don’t know what to expect from either of these teams at the moment. They’ve had a few absolute stunners and headscratchers. It’s anyone’s guess what to expect here. The model obviously likes Dignitas with priors as the primary consideration but I’m not sure we can really use that to great effect here given the situations these two teams are in. CLG are playing confidently this week. I don’t know what got in the water over there but it’s working for them. Dignitas didn’t look bad or good in their one game sample with Akaadian.

If you want to go on current form CLG are the obvious play but I just don’t know what to expect here so I’m shrugging my shoulders on this one.

My Picks:

no wagers

 


 

Team Liquid -112 vs 100 Thieves -112

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -108 / under -120)

Kill Spread: -0.5 @ -116 / +0.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -114 / under -114)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  -116 / -109

Model Suggested Play: none

 

We’ve seen some good and some bad from both of these teams since making their changes. Overall for the Summer season I think 100 Thieves have had the higher highs and lower lows from a film perspective. Liquid remain a very solid fundamental team by a hair, they just make fewer mistakes but it’s not really enough to justify a play on either side of this. I’m sure a lot of people are going to think the 100 Thieves side of this is “obvious” but I think it’s pretty tough to justify a hard stance either way so I’ll pass.

My Picks:

no wagers

 


 

Team Solo Mid +108 vs Cloud 9 -137

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -122 / under -105)

Kill Spread: -0.5 @ -110 / +0.5 @ -118

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -122 / under -105)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  +170 / -221

Model Suggested Play: Cloud 9 moneyline

 

The model sees a pretty big edge on Cloud 9 here but I’ve got a lot of questions about their current form. The transition to K1ng hasn’t proven very fruitful. Perhaps it will with time, it’s not like Cloud 9 are in any sort of danger of missing playoffs at this point which is probably all that matters to them. TSM are doing the tryhard thing. It’s not always pretty and there are questions on their side of things as well, no doubt, but they’re getting the job done and sit atop the league in first place for the time being.

It speaks to the state of the game itself but also the LCS as a whole but I don’t really see any of the top four teams (TSM, Liquid, Cloud 9, and 100 Thieves) really solidifying themselves ahead of the pack they’re all just sort of in this “None of us are S Tier but we’re all A+ tier I guess” pack at the top of the table. Evil Geniuses are knocking on the door, I think Immortals might be the next one up at least right now. The point is, I don’t really think I can make a strong case for any of them to be clearly ahead of the rest. Each has their questions, strengths, and weaknesses and that’s playing out as you’d expect.

No play from me on this one. If this was Spring Cloud 9 I wouldn’t hesitate but they’ve been “off” since moving to K1ng. Besides that, I don’t know if it’s just an extended hangover, teams figuring them out, or the patches just not being particularly great but something isn’t quite the same.

My Picks:

no wagers

 


 

Immortals -169 vs FlyQuest +133

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -105 / under -122)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -127 / +4.5 @ -102

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -122 / under -105)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  -156 / +123

Model Suggested Play: none

Immortals continue to evolve and Insanity is hopefully starting to solidify himself as one of the stronger players in the league. FlyQuest made the early minutes interesting but were more or less routed by 100 Thieves Saturday night and extended their loss streak to three games. I’m still not particularly impressed with anything FlyQuest is doing. Josedeodo and Palafox had some terrible mechanical execution in Saturday’s contest suggesting that maybe they aren’t in particularly great form given what we’ve seen in the past from them.

Favorites have been absolutely dreadful in the LCS this split going 22-18 straight up and an embarrassing 14-26 against the kill spread through the first forty games of play. It feels weird to be as confident as I am to back Immortals here but I actually think it’s correct to. These teams are just in opposite forms right now. That’s been the case a lot and the LCS hasn’t made a ton of sense in general this season with teams immediately snapping back the second it seems like it’s time to fade them, but Immortals looks legitimately good and FlyQuest have shown my very little to be optimistic about this season.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Immortals -169 (1.69 units)

Kill Spread (alt): Immortals -6.5 @ +124 (0.5 units)

 

 


 

Evil Geniuses -278 vs Golden Guardians +207

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -103 / under -125)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -105 / +7.5 @ -123

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -152 / under +117)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  -307 / +226

Model Suggested Play: none

 

It’s like clockwork. The second I get confident about a play just immediately smacked back to reality in this Summer season so far. Also like clockwork? Evil Geniuses losing as moderate to large favorites. It’s the great 2021 past time. You know I joked about it a few times in The Esports Department Discord saying that after EG won Friday night “Golden Guardians is a lock to win on Sunday” but Evil Geniuses shot themselves in the foot early in the game Saturday to such a severe degree that it was essentially over.

I’m not touching this match with a ten foot pole. IF you’re going to play it just hold your nose and put a small wager on the Golden Guardians but I’ll pass.

My Picks:

no wagers

 

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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