Saturday, June 12th Recap
Longer form recap as I get to them.
TOP Esports vs JD Gaming (no action)
Invictus Gaming vs EDward Gaming (Net: -5.28 units)
This one stung as Invictus losing game two in that fashion ended up bringing this from green to big red.
Nongshim RedForce vs Liiv Sandbox (no action)
Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (Net: +1.0 units)
Excel vs Astralis (Net: -1.89 units)
Misfits vs SK Gaming (Net: -0.02 units)
Rogue vs Vitality (Net: no action)
G2 Esports vs Schalke 04 (Net: -2.56 units)
MAD Lions vs Fnatic (Net: +1.0 units)
100 Thieves vs Golden Guardians (Net: +1.0 units)
FlyQuest vs TSM (Net: -3.12 units)
Team Liquid vs Evil Geniuses (Net: +1.79 units)
Cloud 9 vs CLG (Net: -3.27 units)
Immortals vs Dignitas (Net: no action)
LPL Total: -5.28 units
LCK Total: +1.0 units
LEC Total: -3.47 units
LCS Total: -3.6 units
Daily Net Total: -11.35 units
Worst day of the season. Couple rough beats here with TSM and Invictus.
LPL Summer 2021
Week One – Day Seven
LGD Gaming -185 (-1.5 maps @ +174, +1.5 @ -465)
UltraPrime +133 (+1.5 maps @ -227, -1.5 @ +322)
Map Moneyline: LGD -139 / UP +109
Kill Total: 26.5 (over -120 / under -109)
Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -112 / +3.5 @ -115
Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 12.5
Time Total: 31:00 (over -114 / under -114)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -112 / -112 (map), -117 / -117 (series), +258 / -354 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)
Model Suggested Play: UltraPrime series moneyline
LGD – Garvey, Shad0w, Xiye, Kramer, Mark
UP – Zs, H4cker, Xiaocaobao, Smlz, ShiauC
UltraPrime’s new lineup looked pretty good against FunPlus in their first match taking a game and staying competitive in another. They looked cohesive, confident, and decisive, something you don’t always see from new lineups but I think the blend of veterans and rookies seems to be working out decently so far. It’s only one match but they looked better than the conflicted second half version of eStar we saw last split.
LGD also looked decent in their first match against RareAtom, a series that they honestly should have won 2-0 but after a huge throw in game two, RareAtom completely smashed them in game three. Sometimes that happens. In many ways this was shades of LGD 2020 who would frequently TRY to lose unloseable games, sometimes they’d get it together and somehow not lose those thrown games, other times they’d actually lose them. Old habits I guess….
I’m going with the underdogs here. I don’t typically like to put much weight on a debut but UltraPrime looked better in that series than they did in the final six weeks of the Summer season and that’s with a brand new lineup. ShiauC has a supporting cast now even if they might not be the sexiest names, it’s just working for this team. Even if I make some adjustments upward for LGD who I placed as a potential mid tier team, I can’t get it up to this number. I’ll take the dogs.
Map Spread: UltraPrime +1.5 maps @ -227 (2.27 units)
Moneyline: UltraPrime +133 (0.5 units)
Map Spread: UltraPrime -1.5 maps @ +322 (0.25 units)
Team WE -1000 (-1.5 maps @ -204)
ThunderTalk (TT) Gaming +559 (+1.5 maps @ +156, -1.5 @ +1400)
Map Moneyline: WE -526 / TT +351
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -112 / under -116)
Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -116 / +8.5 @ -111
Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 8.5
Time Total: 31:00 (over +109 / under -141)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -222 / +169 (map), -320 / +232 (series), +115 / -148 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)
Model Suggested Play: TT +1.5 maps (strongest), TT series moneyline
WE – Breathe, Beishang, Mole, Elk, Missing
TT – Langx, Xiaopeng, Ye, SamD, Patch
WE and Suning played a competitive series against each other, albeit very sloppy, in their opener while TT punted a game that I personally thought they looked to be in good shape in for game two vs JDG but were stomped in game one.
Both teams made significant changes going into the season. One of these teams is a top nine team, the other is not, but we made a decent chunk of change backing TT as dogs last season, particularly betting the narrative of strong early games into blown leads which seems to be their modus operandi.
We’re getting Ye in place of Captain this time around as the mid lane carousel continues. Ye played mid lane for JoyDream last season but has been kicking around the LDL for a few years now. He possesses an eclectic blend of champions with his most played all time as Leblanc and Sylas and this season Sett has lead the way with 8 games played and a 6-2 record. Ye is very much in the “get lane priority and get things done” mold of mid laner. He’s capable of playing your Zoe’s and Azir’s but has significantly worse results on your traditional “stay at home” carries. Generally think he’s pretty well positioned in this current metagame so trying him out makes sense.
WE are clearly the better team here but I just think this number is way too big so I’m going to be on the dogs. Another neat angle you could take on this one is to take TT first to five kills at around +245 per map but I’ll just be sticking to the side and an alternate kill total over again playing to that narrative of getting up and then throwing the game away.
Map Spread: TT +1.5 maps @ +156 (1 unit)
Moneyline: TT +559 (0.5 units)
Map Spread: TT -1.5 maps @ +1400 (0.1 units)
Kill Total: Map 1 OVER 24.5 @ -125 (1.25 units)
Kill Total: Map 2 OVER 24.5 @ -127 (1.27 units)
Kill Total: Map 3 OVER 24.5 @ -125 (1.25 units)
LCK Summer 2021
Week One – Day Five
DAMWON Kia Gaming -1667 (-1.5 maps @ -250)
KT Rolster +749 (+1.5 maps @ +191, -1.5 @ +1500)
Map Moneyline: DWG -667 / KT +416
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -114 / under -114)
Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -115 / +8.5 @ -112
Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 6.5
Time Total: 30:00 (over -192 / under +146)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -909/+515 (map), -6062 / +1192 (series), -364 / +265 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)
Model Suggested Play: DAMWON -1.5 maps @ -250
KT looked significantly improved in their first series despite the loss to Nongshim who also looked much better. DAMWON played to a challenging 2-1 win over a T1 team that looked pretty sharp, at least in the second two games. It doesn’t appear that DAMWON are in the mood for an MSI hangover and I like their read on the current metagame which is to just take the best champions and figure the rest out and fill in the rest of your comp with needs. Rocket science I know…
I’m optimistic about KT Rolster this season but DAMWON look to be in good form and it’s pretty tough to bet against them when that’s happening. If I give KT a slight bump to make this a closer matchup in the model via adjustments it still shows a light play on the DWG map spread so that’s where I’ll be. Chalk city I suppose.
Map Spread: DAMWON -1.5 maps @ -250 (2.5 units)
Afreeca Freecs +119 (+1.5 maps @ -250, -1.5 @ +311)
DRX -159 (-1.5 maps @ +189, +1.5 @ -455)
Map Moneyline: AF +114 / DRX -145
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -123 / under -105)
Kill Spread: +2.5 @ -114 / -2.5 @ -114
Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 12.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over -120 / under -108)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +170/-222 (map), +229 / -328 (series), +114 / -147 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)
Model Suggested Play: Afreeca series moneyline
|DRX Series Outcomes|
The above is the model’s projected win rate for DRX. Obviously the model is biased toward Afreeca and against DRX just based on the factors that it evaluates and these are two of the teams that it has struggled with throughout this season. Generally speaking, Afreeca are great openers and shoot themselves in the foot while DRX are abysmal early and tend to “scale and wait” for their opponents to screw up. In theory this is exactly the kind of matchup that Afreeca don’t want to see but I also think that, despite all the late game blunders around the world in the opening weeks, that you definitely don’t want to be playing from a deficit with so many snowballing champions, especially the melee carries.
Afreeca’s game is more suited for the current metagame while I think DRX would have had the edge, despite my personal preferences, in the Spring season. I’m not nearly as bullish on Afreeca as the model but they’re the play here…. back to the Afreeca well again wish me luck.
Moneyline: Afreeca +119 (1 unit)
Map Spread: Afreeca -1.5 maps @ +311 (0.5 units)
LEC Summer 2021
Week One – Day Three
Excel Esports +159 vs Schalke 04 -208
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -122 / under -105)
Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -111 / -5.5 @ -120
Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 10.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over +101 / under -132)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +170 / -223
Model Suggested Play: none
Excel are a roster that I expected to be improved but they just look all out of sorts right now while Schalke are fresh off of a victory over G2 Esports yesterday. Two teams with opposite optics on opening weekend. It’s so easy to react to what we’ve seen in the immediate here and now on these things and it feels way too obvious to back Schalke here but I’m just going to pass on this contest. There’s no quantifiable edge on these lines and it would not surprise me in the least to see this go either direction.
Misfits +135 vs Team Vitality -179
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -120 / under -109)
Kill Spread: +3.5 @ -104 / -3.5 @ -130
Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 13.5
Time Total: 33:00 (over -103 / under -127)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: MSF -361 / VIT +252
Model Suggested Plays: Misfits moneyline
Obviously Vitality are a much different team than they were in Summer and have looked sharp at times and weird at others. Misfits have been more or less as expected thus far. My model actually liked Vitality quite a bit last season so consider it more bullish than most were but it doesn’t have enough data to really factor in the roster changes and what we’re looking at with this new roster yet.
In my pre-season preview I had these two teams in a similar place but had a lot more faith in the Misfits to get it done and I think this is quite a good value on the dogs. This is a good spot to fade the hype. For what it’s worth though, I would have taken either team as the dog in this game, especially Misfits which is what we got.
Moneyline: Misfits +135 (2 units)
Astralis +364 vs MAD Lions -556
Kill Total: 27.5 (over -116 / under -111)
Kill Spread: +9.5 @ -122 / -9.5 @ -111
Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 17.5
Time Total: 30:00 (over -122 / under -105)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +510 / -858
Model Suggested Plays: MAD moneyline
Astralis have pulled a few wins out this weekend much to the surprise of many. I loved their trundle pick yesterday to punish the lack of a viable face checking champion besides the Tahm Kench and while Excel didn’t exactly play a very clean game, I don’t think it was going to get any easier for them. Their other win was a comeback victory over SK Gaming on Friday. MAD Lions lost a close one to G2 but won a game that was very competitive for the first ten or so minutes against Fnatic before Humanoid completely took over the game on Akali.
Obviously I think Astralis look improved but this is a step up in level of competition that I think could be a shock to their system. I’m not going to be laying the moneyline with MAD Lions despite the model suggesting a small value but the question becomes does the general volatility of the game right now make it worth a play on Astralis. To me, that’s uncertain ground but I have liked MAD’s general read on things at the moment so I’m a little less enthusiastic to go against them in a spot like this.
MAD have not been a great against the kill spread team as favorites this season in the LEC with just a 4-9 record against an average spread of 6.3 kills. I do think Astralis are worth a play on the spread.
Kill Spread: Astralis +9.5 kills @ -122 (1.22 units)
G2 Esports -588 vs SK Gaming +407
Kill Total: 26.5 (over -116 / under -111)
Kill Spread: -10.5 @ -111 / +10.5 @ -122
Team Kill Totals: 18.5 / 7.5
Time Total: 31:00 (over -110 / under -119)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -263 / +206
Model Suggested Plays: SK Gaming moneyline
As frustrating as yesterday’s loss was I’m not making this play with that in mind. This number is simply way too big for a G2 team that hasn’t been that good in 2021 overall. SK haven’t looked bad and Twohoyrz has actually looked pretty confident in filling in for Blue despite the losses for SK Gaming this weekend. They’ve had solid starts in both games as well.
This is mostly just a “this number is way too big” play.
(this moved even more toward G2 while writing this)
Kill Spread: SK Gaming +10.5 kills @ -120 (1.2 units)
Moneyline: SK +386 (0.5 units)
Fnatic +187 vs Rogue -244
Kill Total: 27.5 (over -120 / under -109)
Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -112 / -6.5 @ -120
Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 16.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -111 / under -118)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +232 / -311
Model Suggested Play: Rogue moneyline (light)
Rogue did not look great in yesterday’s game but did manage to bring it back for the win against Vitality despite a nearly 6000 gold deficit. There were a lot of macro mistakes, disrespectful plays, and generally uncharacteristic to Rogue situations. Fnatic lost to MAD and had the throw of the week so far in Friday’s match against Misfits.
Fnatic have actually looked really good they just haven’t been able to put it together and they’ve faced a brutal opening weekend schedule with arguably three of the top five or so teams in the league to start the year. They’re a better team than the Spring version based on what I’ve seen so far. They’re more coordinated, their early game scripts are significantly more structured and improved, and Adam has looked great in his debut on the LEC stage. This team is going to be pretty good.
I really want to back Fnatic here because Rogue looked off yesterday and I think they’re a better team than the books and masses are giving credit but it’s just not quite enough to justify a wager to me without getting into the uncertain ground of “well… the game is volatile…” as a justification which just isn’t good enough for me. I’ll be passing but lean Fnatic.
LCS Summer 2021
Week Two – Day Three
Golden Guardians +130 vs FlyQuest -167
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -110 / under -118)
Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -108 / -4.5 @ -120
Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 13.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over +100 / under -130)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +116 / -148
Model Suggested Play: none
We talked a lot about the improvements Golden Guardians have made but that they still look, pretty clearly, like the worst team in the league. I’ve said time and time again already that I’m not a fan of this FlyQuest team but I think you should probably just be taking anybody that’s under a -200 favorite against Golden Guardians at this point. Don’t be fooled by the weird win they had over Cloud 9. This team still has severe fundamental flaws and if you lose this bet to the overall variance of the current patch and early week volatility then so be it but I think in a few weeks you’ll look back on spots like this and wish you’d attacked them.
Moneyline: FlyQuest -167 (1.67 units)
Immortals +156 vs Team Liquid -200
Kill Total: 23.5 (over -120 / under -108)
Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -120 / -5.5 @ -108
Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 13.5
Time Total: 31:00 (over -101 / under -128)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +320 / -451
Model Suggested Play: Liquid moneyline
Liquids circus show against Evil Geniuses yesterday was one of the most bizarre games I’ve ever seen. They had amassed a 4000+ gold lead at the 20 minute mark and were en route to a cloud soul before selling out at a pre-baron fight, losing it to give a huge chunk of the gold lead back, but getting the baron shortly after. In the mean time, EG started stacking cloud soul dragon themselves and landed the next four in a row despite Liquid getting three barons and elder. Liquid looked like they had the game ending push but got aced in the base at the 51 minute mark, EG marched down and won the game on the spot.
There’s really not much to pull from these sorts of games but they are absolutely tilting especially when you have the vastly superior scaling composition. It’s pretty hard to lose a game with a full build Gangplank. I don’t really know what to say on this one. Liquid rarely lost games with leads and they’ve looked a little shaky out of the gate here but part of me thinks it’d be overreacting not to back them here. Immortals have looked much better but I still think even with Jenkins in that Liquid are a vastly superior team.
That said, favorites have been awful this split so far and I think part of that is just the general volatility of this patch. More variance, some teams not quite figuring things out, and early season weirdness are all contributing. I’m going to back the favorites here despite the volatility, even with an improved Immortals this line should be significantly pricer than this.
Moneyline: Liquid -200 (2 units)
Counter Logic Gaming +225 vs Team Solo Mid -303
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -105 / under -123)
Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -110 / -6.5 @ -118
Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 14.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -128 / under -101)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: CLG +165 / TSM -214
Model Suggested Play: CLG moneyline
If you haven’t seen the interview that Broxah did with Travis you should go check that out because it’s pretty hard not to appreciate his professionalism, sincerity, and how awesome a teammate he must be to play with. He mentioned just how frustrating that loss was but that it’s just one game and they’re still optimistic big picture. Worth checking out for sure not that it really influences our handicap here.
TSM cost us a pretty big hit to the bankroll yesterday along with Invictus in their loss to FlyQuest which was primarily off of some crazy top lane shenanigans that, eventually, Licorice and Josedeodo won out on. This was another weird game that got out of hand more than I thought it would and the swings were just very wild. It didn’t feel like it would even end this quickly considering how back and forth the game was but that’s the kind of LOL we’re playing right now. The game is incredibly high variance so pick your favorites carefully, especially in the best of one leagues.
My gut says to take TSM to smash in this spot but the model disagrees and given the current state of things in general I think I’m just going to pass in this one. If I had to make a play it’d be CLG moneyline.
Dignitas +193 vs Cloud 9 -256
Kill Total: 24.5 (over -119 / under -109)
Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -109 / -6.5 @ -119
Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 15.5
Time Total: 31:00 (over -114 / under -115)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +310 / -445
Model Suggested Play: Cloud 9 moneyline
Similar to the above situation except that I think Dignitas are in better form than CLG are. I think Cloud 9 is probably the correct play here and this is relatively cheap for them all things considered but this is a team that probably should have lost to CLG yesterday and that was with Gwen. Just a testament to the volatility of the game right now. This is cheap enough that I think you just have to take your chances against variance and fire here. It’s a great price with roughly a 6.7% edge on the market price, I’ll take my chances with that.
Moneyline: Cloud 9 -256 (2.56 units)
Parlay (2): C9 + TL moneyline @ +109 (1 unit)
Evil Geniuses +145 vs 100 Thieves -189
Kill Total: 25.5 (over -119 / under -109)
Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -105 / -4.5 @ -122
Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 14.5
Time Total: 32:00 (over -105 / under -122)
Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +120 / -155
Model Suggested Play: Evil Geniuses moneyline
Evil Geniuses had no business winning their game yesterday but clown fiestas are kind of what this team does. There is no rhyme or reason to when they win or lose them but this team just gravitates toward chaos for whatever reason. I guess they’ve really embraced the Evil moniker. 100 Thieves look really REALLY sharp at the moment which makes me hesitant to go against them but one of the more profitable angles I’ve played in the LCS this season is to back EG as big underdogs like this and fade them as favorites because of their volatility.
I’m going to go against that here.
100 Thieves, Abbedagge in particular, have really impressed me. I figured this team would be improved and one of the stronger teams in the league but I didn’t expect the immediate impact. I expected they’d grow into it. They’re ahead of schedule. I absolutely hate overpaying for favorites in this current state of the game but I’m going to buck the model (not something that’s been profitable thus far in Summer) and just back 100 Thieves.
Moneyline: 100 Thieves -189 (1.89 units)
I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.
Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL
(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)