First of all, for those celebrating, Happy Fourth of July. Keep cool (and hydrated) and be responsible.

I’ll probably be taking some time off in the next few days to recharge the old batteries. I’ve had a lot of stuff going on in my life and it’s finally catching up to me. I’m not sure for how long or exactly when yet but I’ll keep everyone here updated. 

Saturday, July 3rd Recap

 

OMG vs Team WE (Net: -6.4 units)

RareAtom vs LNG Esports (Net: +2.1625 units)

FunPlus vs Invictus (Net: -1.54 units)

 

T1 vs Afreeca (Net: +3.21 units)

Liiv Sandbox vs DRX (Net: +1.36 units)

 

Vitality vs Excel Esports (Net: -2.369 units)

Schalke 04 vs Astralis (Net: +0.31 units)

SK Gaming vs Fantic (Net : -1.14 units)

Misfits vs G2 Esports (Net: +1.0 units)

Rogue vs MAD Lions (no action)

 

TSM vs Immortals (Net: -3.0 units)

Evil Geniuses vs CLG (Net: +/- 0)

Team Liquid vs Cloud 9 (Net: pending)

Golden Guardians vs Dignitas (Net: pending)

FlyQuest vs 100 Thieves (Net: pending)

 

LPL Net Total: -5.7775 units

LCK Net Total: +4.569 units

LEC Net Total: -2.199 units

LCS Net Total: pending

 

Daily Net Total: pending

 

 


 

LPL Summer 2021

Week Four – Day Six

 

Victory Five +567 (+1.5 maps @ +156, -1.5 @ +1400)

vs

BiliBili Gaming -1000 (-1.5 maps @ -204)

 

Map Moneyline: V5 +402 / BLG -625

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -105 / under -123)

Kill Spread: +10.5 @ -127 / -10.5 @ -102

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 18.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -123 / under -105)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  +255 / -354 (map), +436 / -683 (series), +113 / -145 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: V5 +1.5 maps or map moneylines

Starters:

V5 – Aliez, JugGod, Uniboy, Kepler, Reheal

BLG – Biubiu, Weiwei, Zeka, Aiming, ppgod

Trends
BLG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) V5 as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 2 1 -158 Matches as Underdogs 0 5 +625
Against Map Spread 1 2 +199 Against Map Spread 1 4 +71
Against Kill Spread 4 4 4.2 Against Kill Spread 3 8 +9
Kill Totals 5 3 25.17 Kill Totals 5 6 25.30
Team Kill Totals 4 4 14.17 Team Kill Totals 4 7 7.90
Game Time Totals 4 4 31.3 Game Time Totals 5 6 29.80
Dragons over 4.5 2 6 Dragons over 4.5 5 6
Towers over 11.5 5 3 Towers over 11.5 4 7

 

League Rank BiliBili Tale of the Tape Victory Five League Rank
4 421.9 Gold Diff @ 10 min -1985.3 17
13 -596.9 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1223.7 17
5 -1037.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -292.4 17
-24.2 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -108.6
12 -15.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 -224.2 17
10 270.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -21.7 14
12 1772.2 Gold /min (GPM) 1581.3 17
-6.6 Gold / min vs Avg -197.5
10 -1.9 Gold Diff / min -359.7 17
10 0.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -5.1 17
9 1598.0 Kill Agnostic GPM 1476.3 17
7 16.2 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -193.9 17
7 1956.4 GPM in wins 1991.6 3
4 352.1 Gold Diff per min in wins 417.0 1
9 1629.0 GPM in losses 1547.1 16
7 -277.2 Gold Diff per min in losses -424.4 16
7.8 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -350.0
7 11.3 Win-Adjusted GPM 46.5 3
4 31.4 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 96.3 1
13 43.8 Dragon Control % 33.3 16
8 53.1 Herald Control % 38.5 15
6 60.0 Baron Control % 15.4 17
4.0 Quality Wins? 1.0
57.1 % of wins as Quality 100.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 56.121%
2 1 28.157%
1 2 9.429%
0 2 6.293%
(Series Win): 84.278%

 

V5 are trying another new look since, surprise surprise the others weren’t working. Aliez we’ve seen before. He’s your classic “better than most of the LDL but not quite a good LPL” top laner. Reheal we’ve seen a bit this season and here and there with Invictus. This move just hints at a lot of what I’d suspected from V5, they blew their roster up in the offseason but made the mistake of getting rid of some quality players who, coincidentally, are on the other side of the rift in this contest.

I know the model suggests a play on the dogs here but I think BiliBili are going to completely smash this V5 team. Weiwei and ppgod are going to want to prove how much of a mistake was made as an added bonus here. This V5 team is legitimately one of the worst teams on the planet relative to their league. They have the lowest kill agnostic gold per minute of any team in the five majors and with constant roster shuffling it’s clear they have no idea what they’re doing. Look a little checked out to me.

How to play this one is a different story. There’s a reasonable case to be made for the underdog kill spread here but Victory Five have an average margin of defeat of 11.28 kills and BLG an AMOV of exactly 10.5. Underdogs haven’t been covering big spreads well at all and I don’t think that’s a profitable line to take in the LPL specifically.

BiliBili haven’t actually had a single “easy” match this season. The ones that looked like softballs before the season (OMG and LGD) haven’t been the case at all and as we all know LNG look reinvented in this current metagame. BLG will be catching a really easy part of their schedule here and should completely smash.

My Picks:

Map Spread: BLG -1.5 maps @ -204 (2.04 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -345 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -345 (1 unit)

 


 

TOP Esports +180 (+1.5 maps @ -169, -1.5 @ +507)

vs

EDward Gaming -238 (-1.5 maps @ +!32, +1.5 @ -833)

 

Map Moneyline: TOP +156 / EDG -204

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -110 / under -118)

Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -125 / -6.5 @ -104

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -125 / under -104)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  +174 / -230 (map), +244 / -337 (series), -141 / +111 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: EDG series moneyline

Starters:

TOP – Qingtian, Karsa, Knight, JackeyLove, Zhuo

EDG – Flandre, Jiejie, Scout, Viper, Meiko

Trends
EDG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) TOP as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 7 0 -1669 Matches as Underdogs 0 0
Against Map Spread 6 1 -80 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 12 3 7.6 Against Kill Spread 0 0
Kill Totals 9 6 24.79 Kill Totals 0 0
Team Kill Totals 8 7 15.79 Team Kill Totals 0 0
Game Time Totals 10 5 30.9 Game Time Totals 0 0
Dragons over 4.5 6 9 Dragons over 4.5 0 0
Towers over 11.5 5 10 Towers over 11.5 0 0
League Rank EDG Tale of the Tape TOP League Rank
3 792.9 Gold Diff @ 10 min -617.7 16
1 2032.7 Gold Diff @ 15 min -178.2 11
1 1837.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min 127.0 11
47.7 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 21.3
3 149.0 Gold Diff / min first 20 -3.3 6
2 552.6 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 417.4 3
2 1889.9 Gold /min (GPM) 1838.2 4
111.1 Gold / min vs Avg 59.4
1 268.9 Gold Diff / min 124.1 4
1 3.8 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.7 4
2 1643.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1612.6 6
2 131.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 64.8 4
13 1909.6 GPM in wins 1977.9 5
13 302.6 Gold Diff per min in wins 376.9 3
12 1614.1 GPM in losses 1642.6 7
2 -202.5 Gold Diff per min in losses -229.8 4
278.6 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 133.8
13 -35.5 Win-Adjusted GPM 32.8 5
13 -18.1 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 56.2 3
2 71.9 Dragon Control % 58.3 3
3 63.3 Herald Control % 54.2 5
1 77.3 Baron Control % 62.5 4
9.0 Quality Wins? 7.0
64.3 % of wins as Quality 100.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 44.406%
2 1 29.630%
1 2 14.834%
0 2 11.130%
(Series Win): 74.036%

 

TOP Esports are doing so many things right but digging themselves holes early with stupid mistakes. They’re constantly battling uphill. IF they can stabilize their early games which I’d imagine they should be able to do considering it was their strongest asset last season then I expect them to be one of the better teams in the league. One thing about this season is that economy metrics haven’t been correlated to success as it’s too easy to lose a fight off of one mistake so you’re looking for smart teams right now. That’s part of why EDG are doing as well as they are, they’re the most intelligent team in the LPL.

I’m hesitant to back EDG here. It’s hard to continue running as well as they have in such a volatile metagame. As smart as they can be they’ve also caught the better end of a ton of coin flip situations this season. They’re touched by an angel and I’m a little skeptical that they’re literally this much better than everyone. That said, I do think it’s a reasonable position to take here.

My Picks:

Moneyline: EDG -238 (2.38 units)

Prop: Map 1 EDG first blood @ -132 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 EDG first blood @ -132 (0.5 units)

 


 

Suning Gaming +151 (+1.5 maps @ -213, -1.5 @ +410)

vs

Royal Never Give Up -196 (-1.5 maps @ +162, +1.5 @ -625)

 

Map Moneyline: SN +136 / RNG -175

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -119 / under -109)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -122 / -4.5 @ -105

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -125 / under -104)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  -142 / +111 (map), -159 / +124 (series), -418 / +392 (+1.5 / – 1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: Suning series moneyline and -1.5 maps

Starters:

SN – Bin, View, Angel, Huanfeng, SofM

RNG – Xiaohu, Wei, Cryin, GALA, Ming

Trends
RNG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) SN as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 1 2 -2285 Matches as Underdogs 0 1 +206
Against Map Spread 1 2 -176 Against Map Spread 0 1 -169
Against Kill Spread 2 5 8.8 Against Kill Spread 1 1 +7
Kill Totals 6 1 24.17 Kill Totals 1 1 24.50
Team Kill Totals 3 4 16.17 Team Kill Totals 1 1 9.50
Game Time Totals 4 3 29.0 Game Time Totals 2 0 32.00
Dragons over 4.5 2 5 Dragons over 4.5 1 1
Towers over 11.5 1 6 Towers over 11.5 1 1
League Rank Royal Never GU Tale of the Tape Suning League Rank
9 -126.9 Gold Diff @ 10 min -401.5 13
8 -11.1 Gold Diff @ 15 min -512.1 12
13 275.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -475.0 8
44.4 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -0.3
4 -23.1 Gold Diff / min first 20 28.3 10
12 131.7 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 378.9 7
7 1800.6 Gold /min (GPM) 1799.7 8
21.8 Gold / min vs Avg 20.9
13 -76.8 Gold Diff / min 16.7 9
13 -1.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.2 9
7 1607.5 Kill Agnostic GPM 1620.3 4
11 -6.9 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 4.5 8
4 1991.0 GPM in wins 1941.9 8
7 328.3 Gold Diff per min in wins 307.3 12
2 1681.6 GPM in losses 1675.3 3
12 -330.0 Gold Diff per min in losses -237.6 5
-67.1 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 26.4
4 45.9 Win-Adjusted GPM -3.2 8
7 7.6 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -13.4 12
15 38.2 Dragon Control % 43.5 14
13 46.2 Herald Control % 46.7 11
15 29.4 Baron Control % 38.5 12
4.0 Quality Wins? 5.0
80.0 % of wins as Quality 71.4

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
0 2 30.948%
1 2 27.463%
2 1 21.903%
2 0 19.686%
(Series Win): 41.589%

 

So it appears the rumors of SofM trying out some support are true. I’m less concerned with that as I am about how this affects Suning’s very characteristic style. Simply put, there’s just a lot of questions here but I’m absolutely not ruling out that this could work. Adjusting on short notice with no real film to study can be a bit of a trick and it’s not like RNG have been starting the season on solid footing as it is.

My gut tells me that this is the rebound spot for RNG but I very seriously question their form at the moment and I don’t think they’ve had a particularly strong grasp on things so far this Summer. RNG are clearly not as bad as their performance thus far but I think it’s fair to question just how much and when this “return to normal” will happen.

This is one of those matches that it feels should have an obvious side and those in those camps will plant their flags firmly but I think there’s enough doubt here on both sides that I want nothing to do with this game. If I absolutely had to take a side here it’d actually be Suning even with the lineup changes.

A position I do love, however, is the kill total overs which were flagged as double digit edges on market price across the board no matter how I sliced this. Roster changes tend to invite more chaotic games as well.

My Picks:

Kill Total (alt): Map 1 OVER 26.5 @ +102 (1.5 units)

Kill Total (alt): Map 2 OVER 26.5 @ +102 (1.5 units)

 


 

LCK Summer 2021

Week Four – Day Five

 

Nongshim RedForce -161 (-1.5 maps @ +192, +1.5 @ -526)

vs

Hanwha Life Esports +132 (+1.5 maps @ -256, -1.5 @ +350)

 

Map Moneyline: NS -145 / HLE +114

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -116 / under -111)

Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -114 / +3.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -108 / under -120)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  -203 / +157 (map), -269 / +214 (series), +127 / -164 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: Nongshim series moneyline and -1.5 maps

Trends
NS as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) HLE as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 3 1 -202 Matches as Underdogs 0 3 +229
Against Map Spread 0 4 +164 Against Map Spread 1 2 -156
Against Kill Spread 6 5 4.0 Against Kill Spread 2 5 +6
Kill Totals 4 7 23.25 Kill Totals 3 4 24.83
Team Kill Totals 6 5 13.00 Team Kill Totals 3 4 9.83
Game Time Totals 4 7 33.0 Game Time Totals 2 5 32.00
Dragons over 4.5 4 6 Dragons over 4.5 2 5
Towers over 11.5 2 8 Towers over 11.5 3 4

 

League Rank NS Tale of the Tape HLE League Rank
2.0 682.4 Gold Diff @ 10 min -306.4 8.0
7.0 -290.0 Gold Diff @ 15 min -91.9 6.0
3.0 -32.6 Gold Diff @ 20 min -156.3 6.0
-4.5 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 4.0
5.0 -0.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 -13.9 8.0
4.0 35.0 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -293.4 9.0
5.0 1759.0 Gold /min (GPM) 1730.5 8.0
-3.1 Gold / min vs Avg -31.6
5.0 18.9 Gold Diff / min -85.5 9.0
5.0 0.3 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -1.1 9.0
4.0 1606.7 Kill Agnostic GPM 1578.0 9.0
6.0 1.2 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -41.6 9.0
9.0 1881.4 GPM in wins 1960.0 1.0
8.0 265.8 Gold Diff per min in wins 426.6 1.0
7.0 1590.8 GPM in losses 1626.1 4.0
6.0 -320.7 Gold Diff per min in losses -318.2 5.0
22.6 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -81.8
9.0 -27.6 Win-Adjusted GPM 51.1 1.0
8.0 -30.5 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 130.3 1.0
8.0 46.2 Dragon Control % 41.8 9.0
2.0 60.5 Herald Control % 45.2 6.0
6.0 52.2 Baron Control % 29.4 9.0
3.0 Quality Wins? 4.0
33.3 % of wins as Quality 80.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 41.007%
2 1 29.495%
1 2 16.564%
0 2 12.933%
(Series Win): 70.502%

 

The LCK is pretty wild at the moment and it’s pretty cool that you can see that play out in the performance metrics. Less than 100 kill agnostic gold per minute separates that 1st and 10th ranked teams in that metric by far the closest of any league in the world. Speaks to the overall competitiveness (as well as stylistic preference) of the league with DRX obviously lagging a little behind the field.

I’m still skeptical of Nongshim. They’re a pretty good team but I’m not sure just how good they are at this point because of the parity in the LCK. They’ve had a few nice wins this season including a game win over Gen.G but their series over DAMWON, as impressive as it was, is just going to be clouded in asterisks about the DWG roster shuffle and general carelessness thus far this Summer. Their win over T1 in that bizarre 70+ minute game one that clearly frustrated T1 when it came to game two was another odd one.

Nongshim almost feels too obvious here. Hanwha have not looked good at all with their only match win coming against the dreadful DRX. They look better than they did in the opening weeks but that’s not exactly saying much either. There’s a chance Hanwha are on the up and up and I think Nongshim are probably due for a little regression but I think given the current form of these two you could say that you shouldn’t look a gift horse in the mouth here (definitely just jinxed it, sorry lord Chovy).

My Picks:

Moneyline: Nongshim -161 (1.61 units)

Map Spread: Nongshim -1.5 maps @ +192 (0.5 units)

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ -120 (1.2 units)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ -120 (1.2 units)

 


 

Gen.G -169 (-1.5 maps @ +179, +1.5 @ -556)

vs

DAMWON Kia Gaming +139 (+1.5 maps @ -233, – 1.5 @ +372)

 

Map Moneyline: GEG -147 / DWG +116

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -111 / under -116)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -108 / +4.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -120 / under -108)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  -267 / +202 (map), -413 / +314 (series), -107 / -118 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: Gen.G series moneyline and -1.5 maps

Trends
GEG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) DWG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 7 0 -428 Matches as Underdogs 0 0
Against Map Spread 2 5 -56 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 11 8 6.8 Against Kill Spread 0 0
Kill Totals 9 10 22.93 Kill Totals 0 0
Team Kill Totals 9 10 14.36 Team Kill Totals 0 0
Game Time Totals 11 8 31.9 Game Time Totals 0 0
Dragons over 4.5 11 8 Dragons over 4.5 0 0
Towers over 11.5 10 9 Towers over 11.5 0 0

 

League Rank GEG Tale of the Tape DWG League Rank
4.0 535.1 Gold Diff @ 10 min -26.3 6.0
1.0 1116.0 Gold Diff @ 15 min -684.8 9.0
1.0 999.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -588.3 9.0
33.9 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -22.4
2.0 57.3 Gold Diff / min first 20 -36.1 9.0
1.0 547.6 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -3.0 6.0
1.0 1868.5 Gold /min (GPM) 1758.0 6.0
106.4 Gold / min vs Avg -4.1
1.0 202.2 Gold Diff / min -3.0 6.0
1.0 2.8 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.0 6.0
1.0 1667.6 Kill Agnostic GPM 1596.3 8.0
1.0 109.2 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 7.3 4.0
3.0 1931.7 GPM in wins 1921.0 5.0
4.0 321.8 Gold Diff per min in wins 319.4 5.0
2.0 1691.4 GPM in losses 1554.1 10.0
1.0 -132.6 Gold Diff per min in losses -406.0 10.0
206.0 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 0.7
3.0 22.8 Win-Adjusted GPM 12.0 5.0
4.0 25.5 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 23.1 5.0
2.0 60.2 Dragon Control % 51.9 3.0
9.0 43.2 Herald Control % 52.9 4.0
1.0 72.4 Baron Control % 68.2 2.0
8.0 Quality Wins? 6.0
57.1 % of wins as Quality 60.0

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 48.755%
2 1 29.424%
1 2 12.716%
0 2 9.105%
(Series Win): 78.179%

 

What a weird world we’re living in now. DAMWON brought back the World Championship lineup for the first time in a few weeks, completely whooped Nongshim in game one and then received an absolute shellacking in games two and three. We spent a lot of time on the podcast this week talking about G2 and DAMWON and how expectations need to shift. This is exactly the time when you know they’d turn it around and completely destroy Gen.G and everyone says “oh well see they’re back” but honestly I wouldn’t bet on that right now. Until DAMWON show me that I’m not going to back them against the current best team in the league. Gen.G have always struggled with DAMWON and that’ll always be a concern but just look at the current form between these two teams and tell me with a straight face that you can back DAMWON. I don’t think you can. If Gen.G can’t get the proverbial monkey off their back and they drop this one then so be it but this is an absolute slam dunk Gen.G bet.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Gen.G -169 (1.69 units)

Map Spread: Gen.G -1.5 maps @ +179 (0.5 units)

 


 

LCS Summer 2021

Week Five – Day Three

 

Golden Guardians +197 vs Evil Geniuses -263

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -112 / under -115)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -112 / -7.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -141 / under +108)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  GGS +206 / EG -276

Model Suggested Play: none (miniscule EG)

League Rank EG Tale of the Tape GGS League Rank
3 305.3 Gold Diff @ 10 min -663.8 10
2 1238.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min -337.2 7
2 719.8 Gold Diff @ 20 min -793.8 10
21.2 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -30.5
2 81.4 Gold Diff / min first 20 -59.2 9
6 42.5 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -181.5 8
1 1918.0 Gold /min (GPM) 1789.0 6
136.6 Gold / min vs Avg 7.7
5 42.5 Gold Diff / min -199.6 9
5 0.7 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.5 9
1 1707.2 Kill Agnostic GPM 1639.7 3
6 20.7 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -81.3 8
2 1686.5 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1721.0 1
1 2204.9 GPM in wins 1836.5 8
7 299.6 Gold Diff per min in wins 169.1 8
4 1631.1 GPM in losses 1765.3 1
2 -214.7 Gold Diff per min in losses -383.9 9
54.4 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -187.6
1 262.2 Win-Adjusted GPM -106.2 8
7 13.1 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -117.4 8
6 47.5 Dragon Control % 57.7 3
1 62.5 Herald Control % 56.5 3
7 33.3 Baron Control % 31.3 8
4.0 Quality Wins? 0.0
66.7 % of wins as Quality 0.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

I make this just about on market but Evil Geniuses are legitimately playing excellent League right now. Svenskeren is having himself a bit of a late career renaissance at the moment and is playing the best I’ve seen from in him in a long time. EG lead the league in agnostic gold per minute, raw gold per minute, and adjusted gold per minute. They’re also tops in the league in herald control which is the way you want to be playing the game right now.

To me this is a bit of a stylistic mismatch. EG are not afraid to side lane and split push games out by creating pressure on the map. Golden Guardians sort of just cave man style group up for objectives which is simple and effective for them but they’re going to struggle when forced to make difficult decisions.

I’m going to play the EG moneyline and the over here.

EG League Average GGS
Combined Kills / game 28.198 25.24 28.948
Combined Kills / min 0.904 0.81 1.006
Kills per win 19.188 17.96 17.000
Kills per loss 10.31 8.08 7.50
Deaths per win 9.67 8.34 14.25
Deaths per loss 18.83 17.56 19.75
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 9.67 9.75 2.75
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 8.50 10.09 12.25

(missing yesterday)

I’m projecting a 28.592 kill total for this one so I’ll take the over. The GGS first herald is actually pretty interesting at the price but I think EG might just run over this game with the current form they’re showing.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Evil Geniuses -263 (2.63 units)

Kill Total: OVER 26.5 @ -112 (0.56 units)

 


100 Thieves -400 vs CLG +280

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -110 / under -118)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -118 / +7.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 7.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +104 / under -135)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  100T -389 / CLG +274

Model Suggested Play: none

League Rank 100T Tale of the Tape CLG League Rank
1 985.4 Gold Diff @ 10 min -86.8 5
1 2147.4 Gold Diff @ 15 min -250.4 6
1 1957.3 Gold Diff @ 20 min 104.4 6
83.7 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -30.5
1 148.3 Gold Diff / min first 20 -29.3 7
1 429.9 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -166.5 7
3 1831.1 Gold /min (GPM) 1712.1 8
49.7 Gold / min vs Avg -69.3
1 214.4 Gold Diff / min -84.9 7
1 3.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -1.2 7
6 1613.7 Kill Agnostic GPM 1562.8 8
1 123.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -55.6 7
10 1490.1 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1618.4 6
7 1890.1 GPM in wins 1920.0 6
2 343.2 Gold Diff per min in wins 341.8 3
10 1535.9 GPM in losses 1608.2 5
10 -429.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -298.2 5
226.4 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -73.0
7 -52.6 Win-Adjusted GPM -22.8 6
2 56.7 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 55.3 3
2 57.8 Dragon Control % 42.4 8
7 42.9 Herald Control % 43.5 6
3 66.7 Baron Control % 52.9 5
7.0 Quality Wins? 3.0
70.0 % of wins as Quality 75.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Games like the one we saw yesterday keep my ever so slightly cautious about believing too much in this 100 Thieves team. They sometimes get a little overhyped but they’re feeling confident right now so it’s tough to really blame them. CLG are continuing to play confidently they’re just not playing particularly well and I’m not entirely sure we can expect that until we see them show us.

100 Thieves should roll here but there’s a non-zero chance we get a little screwing around here. I like +150 on CLG first herald given that 100 Thieves much prefer to dragon stack and CLG have picked up herald in a number of losses. CLG”s early games aren’t the problem, it’s everything else. The trick here is that 100T have been outstanding in the early game.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: 100 Thieves -7.5 kills @ -118 (1.18 units)

Prop: CLG first herald @ +150 (0.5 units)

 


 

Cloud 9 -164 vs TSM +124

 

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -122 / under -105)

Kill Spread: -1.5 @ -116 / +1.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -118 / under -110)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: C9 -136 / TSM +103

Model Suggested Play: TSM moneyline

League Rank C9 Tale of the Tape TSM League Rank
2 611.7 Gold Diff @ 10 min -173.0 7
3 704.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min -237.9 5
3 556.1 Gold Diff @ 20 min 55.3 5
11.6 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -25.5
3 59.5 Gold Diff / min first 20 -8.2 5
4 210.4 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 134.4 5
2 1874.8 Gold /min (GPM) 1747.7 7
93.4 Gold / min vs Avg -33.7
4 67.7 Gold Diff / min 40.2 6
4 0.8 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.6 6
2 1688.2 Kill Agnostic GPM 1588.4 7
3 48.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 25.1 5
4 1639.6 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1563.4 9
2 2163.4 GPM in wins 1821.0 9
1 402.7 Gold Diff per min in wins 168.8 9
7 1586.1 GPM in losses 1559.4 9
4 -267.2 Gold Diff per min in losses -305.3 6
79.7 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 52.2
2 220.6 Win-Adjusted GPM -121.8 9
1 116.2 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -117.6 9
7 47.2 Dragon Control % 51.8 5
4 50.0 Herald Control % 60.9 2
6 42.9 Baron Control % 80.0 1
6.0 Quality Wins? 2.0
100.0 % of wins as Quality 22.2

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

The weird thing about this one is that TSM played one of their better games of the split and as I’ve mentioned, I expect this teams overall performance to improve even if they don’t maintain their unsustainable win rate relative to performance rating. Cloud 9 have been due for some regression but it’s tough to ignore the results.

Whatever it is Cloud 9 appear to have figured things out. Maybe it was the hat narrative all along (Perkz still being carried by Caps it turns out…). I’m going to bet on Cloud 9 here against the model’s suggestion and just to remind people, the model does not like TSM at all, it grades them roughly 5th in the league based on performance but again I expect that to improve. Cloud 9 just look good this weekend and this team is streaky. It’s a little narrative-y but that’s where I’m going.

The kill total under was also flagged for a play here, specifically the under 21.5 alternate total but I think we could end up seeing a bit of a slobberknocker so I’m going to pass.

My Picks:

Kill Spread (alt): Cloud 9 -3.5 kills @ +103 (1 unit)

 


 

FlyQuest +243 vs Team Liquid -333

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -112 / under -115)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -119 / -7.5 @ -109

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over +100 / under -130)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  TL -446 / FLY +311

Model Suggested Play: TL moneyline

League Rank TL Tale of the Tape FLY League Rank
4 182.2 Gold Diff @ 10 min -142.2 6
4 -76.7 Gold Diff @ 15 min -418.3 9
4 47.8 Gold Diff @ 20 min -98.4 7
-0.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -50.1
4 18.0 Gold Diff / min first 20 -81.9 10
3 258.6 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -557.2 10
4 1818.3 Gold /min (GPM) 1628.9 10
36.9 Gold / min vs Avg -152.5
2 109.1 Gold Diff / min -222.7 10
2 1.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -3.2 10
4 1620.7 Kill Agnostic GPM 1504.5 10
2 50.9 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -124.7 9
8 1569.9 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1629.2 5
4 1924.0 GPM in wins 1808.6 10
4 337.7 Gold Diff per min in wins 153.3 10
2 1670.3 GPM in losses 1569.0 8
1 -210.9 Gold Diff per min in losses -348.0 7
121.1 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -210.8
4 -18.8 Win-Adjusted GPM -134.1 10
4 51.3 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -133.2 10
1 58.3 Dragon Control % 35.6 10
10 36.4 Herald Control % 42.9 7
3 66.7 Baron Control % 31.3 8
5.0 Quality Wins? 2.0
71.4 % of wins as Quality 66.7

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

I expect Liquid to take care of business here but betting them on the kill spread has not been a profitable endeavor this season or really most of 2020 either. It’s just not the type of team they are. My favorite play in this one is actually the kill total over. I project this at 26.961 kills which is a substantial edge on the market price but I’m not going to go overboard on this because this could just as easily be a quiet, controlled game by Liquid.

My Picks:

Kill Total: OVER 23.5 @ -112 (1.12 units)

 


Dignitas +117 vs Immortals -149

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -116 / under -112)

Kill Spread: +3.5 @ -115 / -3.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -125 / under -104)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  DIG +216 / IMT -289

Model Suggested Play: Immortals moneyline

League Rank IMT Tale of the Tape DIG League Rank
8 -385.4 Gold Diff @ 10 min -481.8 9
10 -775.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min -352.8 8
9 -1196.1 Gold Diff @ 20 min -136.6 8
31.6 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -11.6
6 -20.1 Gold Diff / min first 20 -55.3 8
2 358.1 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -410.7 9
5 1811.7 Gold /min (GPM) 1682.1 9
30.4 Gold / min vs Avg -99.3
3 83.8 Gold Diff / min -170.1 8
3 1.2 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.4 8
5 1617.0 Kill Agnostic GPM 1519.2 9
4 34.3 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -125.0 10
7 1582.7 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1644.2 3
3 1939.1 GPM in wins 1920.0 5
6 318.6 Gold Diff per min in wins 330.0 5
3 1633.4 GPM in losses 1595.6 6
3 -244.8 Gold Diff per min in losses -352.0 8
95.8 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -158.2
3 -3.7 Win-Adjusted GPM -22.7 5
6 32.1 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 43.6 5
4 57.1 Dragon Control % 41.5 9
4 50.0 Herald Control % 41.4 9
2 69.2 Baron Control % 25.0 10
4.0 Quality Wins? 2.0
57.1 % of wins as Quality 50.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Immortals had a bit of an unfortunate mishap in the bottom lane that caused them to start throwing very early Hail Mary’s in Saturday’s game but they’ve been a significantly better team than Dignitas over the course of this Summer. This is a gift and one of my favorite positions on the entire board this weekend.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Immortals -149 (1.49 units)

Kill Spread (alt): Immortals -4.5 kills @ +105 (0.5 units)

 

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and you can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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