Saturday, July 24th Recap

 

Team WE vs EDward Gaming (Net: +8.79 units)

UltraPrime vs RareAtom (no action)

JD Gaming vs Royal Never Give Up (Net: -0.371 units)

 

DRX vs DAMWON Kia (Net: +1.0 units)

Liiv Sandbox vs T1  (Net: +1.64 units)

 

Schalke 04 vs Astralis (Net: +1.23 units)

 Vitality vs Excel (Net:+1.19 units)

Rogue vs MAD Lions (Net: -0.85 units)

SK Gaming vs Fnatic (Net: +0.469 units)

Misfits vs G2 Esports (Net: -0.248 units)

 

TSM vs Golden Guardians (Net: +2.69 units)

 Immortals vs Evil Geniuses (Net: -0.2 units)

FlyQuest vs Cloud 9 (Net: +0.22 units)

 Team Liquid vs Dignitas (Net: +2.566 units)

 100 Thieves vs CLG (Net: +2.0 units)

 

 

LPL Net Total: +8.419 units

LCK Net Total: +2.64 units

LEC Net Total: +1.791 units

LCS Net Total: +7.276 units

 

Daily Net Total: +20.126 units

 

Best day I’ve had in awhile. FeelsGoodMan.

 


LPL Summer 2021

Week Seven – Day Seven

 

 

LNG Esports -192 (-1.5 maps @ +161, +1.5 @ -556)

vs

LGD Gaming +147 (+1.5 maps @ -208, -1.5 @ +377)

 

Map Moneyline: LNG -164 / LGD +127

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -120 / under -109)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -105 / +4.5 @ -123

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -118 / under -110)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -194 / +149 (map), -258 / +192 (series), +135 / -173 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: LNG series moneyline and -1.5 maps (light)

Starters:

LNG – M1kuya, Tarzan, Icon, Light, Iwandy

LGD – Garvey, Shad0w, Xiye, Kramer, Mark

Trends
LNG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) LGD as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 4 3 -714 Matches as Underdogs 2 7 +244
Against Map Spread 2 5 +7 Against Map Spread 4 5 -95
Against Kill Spread 8 10 6.4 Against Kill Spread 9 13 +7
Kill Totals 6 12 25.36 Kill Totals 12 10 26.06
Team Kill Totals 7 11 15.64 Team Kill Totals 11 11 9.94
Game Time Totals 9 9 30.6 Game Time Totals 11 11 30.33
Dragons over 4.5 4 14 Dragons over 4.5 11 11
Towers over 11.5 8 10 Towers over 11.5 10 12

 

League Rank LNG Tale of the Tape LGD League Rank
7 146.9 Gold Diff @ 10 min -519.8 15
9 -82.8 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1595.8 17
7 150.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -3025.0 15
-2.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -20.0
10 23.3 Gold Diff / min first 20 -74.3 13
3 446.1 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 228.0 12
9 1806.6 Gold /min (GPM) 1768.8 12
18.4 Gold / min vs Avg -19.4
5 93.4 Gold Diff / min -38.3 12
5 1.3 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.5 12
11 1602.5 Kill Agnostic GPM 1572.0 12
9 30.7 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -22.8 12
10 1946.7 GPM in wins 1930.3 12
8 349.9 Gold Diff per min in wins 295.4 13
13 1601.9 GPM in losses 1627.4 10
6 -281.6 Gold Diff per min in losses -330.3 12
98.9 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -32.8
10 -4.5 Win-Adjusted GPM -20.9 12
8 25.4 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -29.2 13
13 44.7 Dragon Control % 44.6 14
8 52.4 Herald Control % 38.3 15
7 53.7 Baron Control % 53.1 8
12.0 Quality Wins? 6.0
63.2 % of wins as Quality 42.9

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 39.569%
2 1 29.357%
1 2 17.313%
0 2 13.761%
(Series Win): 68.926%

 

Light and Iwandy are back but M1kuya is also filling in for Ale in the top lane for LNG. One of these moves is more important than the other (Light and Iwandy returning). M1kuya has been serviceable anytime we’ve seen him even when he’s been a starter for LNG. Should be a return to form as well as a sign that maybe Light and Iwandy feel better than they did in the meta up until last week.

LNG have had a few sketchy series against middle and bottom of the table teams but they’ve been a much better team than the one dimensional LGD and I like them as a side here.

I also like the kill total overs despite the fact that LNG tend to be one of the least bloody teams in the LPL. 63.3% of LGD games go over the 25.5 alternate total, and 65+% of both of these teams games go over the 23.5 clip.

My Picks:

Moneyline: LNG -192 (1.92 units)

Map Spread: LNG -1.5 maps @ +161 (0.25 units)

Kill Total (alt): Map 1 OVER 23.5 @ -145 (1 unit)

Kill Total (alt): Map 2 OVER 24.5 @ -139 (1 unit)

 

 


 

OMG -769 (-1.5 maps @ -172, +1.5 @ -3333)

vs

Victory Five +472 (+1.5 maps @ +135, -1.5 @ +1081)

 

Map Moneyline: OMG -435 / V5 +306

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -118 / +8.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -115 / under -112)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -169 / +132 (map), -208 / +160 (series), +159 / -204 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: V5 series moneyline, +1.5 maps and -1.5 (very strong)

Starters:

OMG – New, AKi, Creme, Able, COLD

V5 – Aliez, Pzx, Uniboy, Kepler, ZYF

Trends
OMG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) V5 as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 3 0 -353 Matches as Underdogs 0 10 +637
Against Map Spread 3 0 +50 Against Map Spread 1 9 +100
Against Kill Spread 4 2 5.8 Against Kill Spread 8 13 +9
Kill Totals 3 3 26.17 Kill Totals 8 13 25.80
Team Kill Totals 4 2 15.17 Team Kill Totals 7 14 8.30
Game Time Totals 5 1 30.3 Game Time Totals 10 11 29.70
Dragons over 4.5 3 3 Dragons over 4.5 8 13
Towers over 11.5 3 3 Towers over 11.5 8 13
League Rank OMG Tale of the Tape Victory Five League Rank
16 -795.1 Gold Diff @ 10 min -2562.5 17
14 -1108.0 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1284.8 16
16 -1925.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -390.5 17
-39.6 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -110.0
14 -81.6 Gold Diff / min first 20 -206.1 17
15 -129.1 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 11.8 13
13 1731.4 Gold /min (GPM) 1586.1 17
-56.9 Gold / min vs Avg -202.1
13 -129.1 Gold Diff / min -367.5 17
13 -1.7 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -5.2 17
14 1547.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1485.2 17
14 -90.1 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -217.7 17
16 1894.5 GPM in wins 1991.6 3
15 231.0 Gold Diff per min in wins 417.0 1
15 1590.0 GPM in losses 1567.7 17
17 -441.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -403.1 15
-123.6 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -362.0
16 -56.7 Win-Adjusted GPM 40.4 3
15 -93.5 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 92.4 1
12 48.2 Dragon Control % 32.0 17
12 41.8 Herald Control % 41.3 14
13 48.5 Baron Control % 14.3 17
5.0 Quality Wins? 1.0
38.5 % of wins as Quality 100.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 35.753%
2 1 28.750%
1 2 19.332%
0 2 16.165%
(Series Win): 64.503%

 

I’m going to keep this one really simple… just hold your nose and take V5. I know they’re awful but this is way too absurd a number for a team as poor as OMG. You don’t want to get into a routine of assuming “they’re due” but you have to pick your battles with these truly terrible teams and this is one I’m willing to take a shot with.

V5 first blood isn’t a bad look either with both of these teams around 57% and getting plus money on it.

 

My Picks:

Map Spread: Victory Five +1.5 maps @ +135 (1 unit)

Moneyline: Victory Five +472 (0.5 units)

Map Spread: Victory Five -1.5 maps @ +1081 (0.25 units)

Prop: Map 1 V5 first blood @ +114 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 V5 first blood @ +114 (0.5 units)

 


 

TOP Esports -435 (-1.5 maps @ -118, +1.5 @ -1667)

vs

Invictus Gaming +305 (+1.5 maps @ -109, -1.5 @ +764)

 

Map Moneyline: TOP -294 / IG +221

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -114 / under -115)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -108 / +7.5 @ -122

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 30:00 (over -149 / under +115)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -131 / +104 (map), -142 / +111 (series), +212 / -288 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: Invictus series moneyline, +1.5 and -1.5 maps (very strong)

Starters:

TOP – Qingtian, Karsa, Knight, JackeyLove, Yuyanjia

IG – TheShy, XUN, Rookie, Wink, Lucas

Trends
TOP as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) IG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 6 4 -1101 Matches as Underdogs 2 5 +190
Against Map Spread 4 6 +16 Against Map Spread 2 5 -161
Against Kill Spread 11 13 6.0 Against Kill Spread 7 8 +6
Kill Totals 14 10 26.40 Kill Totals 6 9 26.21
Team Kill Totals 11 13 15.60 Team Kill Totals 7 8 10.79
Game Time Totals 12 12 30.5 Game Time Totals 7 8 30.57
Dragons over 4.5 10 14 Dragons over 4.5 4 11
Towers over 11.5 13 11 Towers over 11.5 7 8

 

League Rank TOP Tale of the Tape Invictus League Rank
9 71.7 Gold Diff @ 10 min -284.4 11
8 -53.3 Gold Diff @ 15 min 171.3 7
8 91.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min 362.5 9
19.6 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 4.2
7 16.3 Gold Diff / min first 20 -13.5 8
2 460.6 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 421.9 5
4 1855.5 Gold /min (GPM) 1806.3 10
67.2 Gold / min vs Avg 18.1
3 121.8 Gold Diff / min -9.7 11
3 1.7 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.2 11
5 1626.8 Kill Agnostic GPM 1623.2 6
4 66.9 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 11.2 11
4 1988.6 GPM in wins 1994.4 2
7 351.2 Gold Diff per min in wins 333.4 11
7 1648.4 GPM in losses 1661.6 4
1 -235.1 Gold Diff per min in losses -273.7 5
127.3 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -4.2
4 37.4 Win-Adjusted GPM 43.2 2
7 26.7 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 8.8 11
5 55.4 Dragon Control % 57.0 3
5 56.5 Herald Control % 65.2 1
3 63.6 Baron Control % 58.6 6
12.0 Quality Wins? 3.0
85.7 % of wins as Quality 30.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 28.931%
2 1 26.740%
1 2 22.973%
0 2 21.355%
(Series Win): 55.671%

 

The statistical profiles of these two teams from an economical perspective are fairly evenly matched. On film these two are slightly different focuses with TOP preferring to scale and use long laning phases and dragon stacking while Invictus try to snowball through herald and early gold injections.

TOP are generally the more well rounded team of the two and have performed better but Invictus are harder to evaluate. They play up and down to competition and they’re mistake prone. Invictus should have a significantly better record than they do if you look at their numbers but they’ve shot themselves in the foot with dumb mistakes far too many times this season.

This should be a competitive match. These two always seem to play each other close in every iteration and this match matters to both teams with TOP in a competitive and crowded middle of the pack in the standings while Invictus are basically in “must win” mode if they want any chance at making the playoffs. They’re currently 4-7 and last place amongst the teams that aren’t mathematically eliminated yet so you can expect them to be up for this contest.

I think TOP win and they’ve been strong where it matters against Invictus but this number is simply too large. It’s too easy to just look at the results and not the data with Invictus. I think they’re always live in any match even against the top teams and this is the second biggest underdogs they’ve been in the past FOUR YEARS with the only higher on being against FPX earlier this season and they swept that series 2-0.

IG first herald and tower showed big value as well as TOP first dragon showing a little. I’ll be on IG first herald.

 

My Picks:

Map Spread: Invictus +1.5 maps @ -108 (1.08 units)

Moneyline: Invictus +305 (0.5 units)

Map Spread: Invictus -1.5 maps @ +764 (0.25 units)

Prop: Map 1 Invictus first herald @ +117 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 Invictus first herald @ +117 (1 unit)

 


 

LCK Summer

Week Seven – Day Four

 

 

Gen.G -244 (-1.5 maps @ +124, +1.5 @ -833)

vs

Afreeca Freecs +198 (+1.5 maps @ -159, -1.5 @ +494)

 

Map Moneyline: GEG -208 / AF +159

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -108 / under -122)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -115 / +5.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -110 / under -119)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -181 / +140 (map), -222 / +181 (series), +146 / -189 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: none

Trends
GEG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) AF as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 9 3 -400 Matches as Underdogs 5 4 +155
Against Map Spread 3 9 -20 Against Map Spread 6 3 -216
Against Kill Spread 15 16 6.4 Against Kill Spread 13 9 +4
Kill Totals 16 15 23.08 Kill Totals 8 14 23.28
Team Kill Totals 15 16 14.25 Team Kill Totals 11 11 10.17
Game Time Totals 16 15 32.1 Game Time Totals 13 9 32.56
Dragons over 4.5 16 15 Dragons over 4.5 14 8
Towers over 11.5 15 16 Towers over 11.5 13 9

 

 

League Rank GEG Tale of the Tape AF League Rank
6.0 -93.3 Gold Diff @ 10 min -481.8 10.0
7.0 -188.8 Gold Diff @ 15 min 39.1 4.0
6.0 -166.8 Gold Diff @ 20 min -137.3 7.0
11.5 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 3.1
3.0 11.6 Gold Diff / min first 20 13.5 2.0
1.0 365.8 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -56.0 7.0
1.0 1827.0 Gold /min (GPM) 1745.0 7.0
58.4 Gold / min vs Avg -23.7
1.0 113.8 Gold Diff / min -15.4 7.0
1.0 1.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.2 6.0
2.0 1636.6 Kill Agnostic GPM 1613.2 5.0
2.0 63.8 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -5.4 6.0
1.0 1954.1 GPM in wins 1893.2 8.0
2.0 341.6 Gold Diff per min in wins 300.8 6.0
4.0 1625.9 GPM in losses 1615.3 5.0
2.0 -246.8 Gold Diff per min in losses -292.0 3.0
115.8 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -13.4
1.0 36.0 Win-Adjusted GPM -24.9 8.0
2.0 36.6 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -4.1 6.0
2.0 56.9 Dragon Control % 49.7 6.0
10.0 36.1 Herald Control % 59.3 1.0
2.0 61.9 Baron Control % 44.2 7.0
11.0 Quality Wins? 7.0
57.9 % of wins as Quality 50.0

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 37.600%
2 1 29.088%
1 2 18.349%
0 2 14.962%
(Series Win): 66.688%

I make this series right about on market and think that’s a fair price even after considering recent performance of these two teams. If anything I’d actually back Afreeca here as this match is much more important to them and I think there’s a non-zero chance we see Youngjae again for Gen.G.

This is a tale of two styles though. Gen.G have been a hard commit to dragon scaling in most games. The exception being when they get their coveted Nidalee+Renekton duo. They’ve indexed way more into scaling this season which is bizarre considering it’s much more difficult to do this time around but we at least know who they are. Afreeca are an early game snowballing team and they’re more than capable of doing just that. I absolutely love the first herald and tower bets for them in this spot. I’ll be wgoing with the first herald for Afreeca but both are solid double digit edges on market price.

 

My Picks:

Prop: Map 1 Afreeca first herald @ -104 (1.04 units)

Prop: Map 2 Afreeca first herald @ -104 (1.04 units)

 


 

Hanwha Life Esports -164 (-1.5 maps @ +178, +1.5 @ -500)

vs

Fredit BRION +135 (+1.5 maps @ -233, -1.5 @ +346)

 

Map Moneyline: HLE -149 / BRO +117

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -110 / under -119)

Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -123 / +3.5 @ -105

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +110 / under -143)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +157 / -203 (map), +214 / -268 (series), +620 / -673 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: Brion series moneyline, -1.5 and +1.5 maps (very strong)

Trends
HLE as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) BRO as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 2 4 -186 Matches as Underdogs 4 7 +257
Against Map Spread 1 5 +179 Against Map Spread 9 2 -105
Against Kill Spread 6 8 3.5 Against Kill Spread 16 12 +6
Kill Totals 6 8 23.83 Kill Totals 9 19 22.68
Team Kill Totals 5 9 12.67 Team Kill Totals 16 12 8.68
Game Time Totals 3 11 32.8 Game Time Totals 14 14 32.36
Dragons over 4.5 5 9 Dragons over 4.5 18 10
Towers over 11.5 7 7 Towers over 11.5 10 18
League Rank HLE Tale of the Tape BRO League Rank
7.0 -284.1 Gold Diff @ 10 min -63.4 5.0
10.0 -1040.1 Gold Diff @ 15 min -175.6 5.0
10.0 -1233.3 Gold Diff @ 20 min 192.5 5.0
-1.0 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -55.5
8.0 -25.3 Gold Diff / min first 20 -7.9 7.0
9.0 -261.5 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -41.8 6.0
9.0 1736.8 Gold /min (GPM) 1740.8 8.0
-31.9 Gold / min vs Avg -27.9
9.0 -91.2 Gold Diff / min -19.2 8.0
9.0 -1.2 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.3 8.0
9.0 1582.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1600.0 7.0
9.0 -49.8 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -24.5 8.0
3.0 1945.7 GPM in wins 1920.1 6.0
1.0 370.8 Gold Diff per min in wins 299.5 7.0
3.0 1626.8 GPM in losses 1581.5 10.0
9.0 -334.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -302.5 4.0
-89.2 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -17.2
3.0 27.6 Win-Adjusted GPM 2.0 6.0
1.0 65.9 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -5.4 7.0
9.0 40.2 Dragon Control % 60.9 1.0
4.0 54.4 Herald Control % 42.4 8.0
8.0 36.1 Baron Control % 34.9 9.0
7.0 Quality Wins? 9.0
70.0 % of wins as Quality 52.9

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
0 2 41.011%
1 2 29.495%
2 1 16.562%
2 0 12.931%
(Series Win): 29.494%

 

The above are using the full season with trending performance weighted numbers but if you filter out Hanwha’s first three weeks then… this is still wrong team favored.

The price memory with this Hanwha team is just ridiculously strong and the market refuses to quit on this team. Hey everyone, they’re not as bad as DRX but this team isn’t good. I’m not saying Brion is particularly great either but can we all wake up and smell the roses here? It’s Chovy and four dudes and it’s so hard to solo carry a game of League of Legends these days.

I’ll be on Brion first dragon as always and I’m going 1.5x weight this time around given the 37.9% rate for HLE.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Brion +135 (1 unit)

Map Spread: Brion -1.5 maps @ +346 (0.25 units)

Prop: Map 1 Brion first dragon @ -143 (1.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 Brion first dragon @ -139 (1.5 units)

 

 


LCS Summer 2021

Week Eight – Day Three

 

 

Dating back to the beginning of Week 5 on July 2nd which introduced Patch 11.13 and the change to increased gold on the inner turrets, we’ve seen herald centric teams winning more often and in certain leagues and a stronger focus across the board on going for the tier two towers. This is a double whammy because the entire year of LOL set up markets to go up and up in favor of the unders so you get excellent prices on this right now.  Since week it’s been a much more even split of 27 over and 28 unders on the 12.5 tower total with 42 out of 55 games going over 11.5 towers. The LCS usual percentage of games to go over the tower total was less than 38% for the majority of the season and that’s trending upward.

I rarely “system” bet but this is clear as day and something I’ve been monitoring for a bit now. I’ll be placing a one unit wager on every match to go over the 12.5 tower total.

 

Golden Guardians +242 vs Team Liquid -333

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -116 / -7.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -127 / under -103)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: GGS +125 / TL -162

Model Suggested Play: Golden Guardians moneyline (strong)

Trends
TL as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) GGS as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 12 5 -281 Matches as Underdogs 9 13 +230
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 10 7 6.0 Against Kill Spread 14 8 +7
Kill Totals 9 8 24.44 Kill Totals 16 6 24.91
Team Kill Totals 11 6 14.56 Team Kill Totals 16 6 9.09
Game Time Totals 11 6 31.6 Game Time Totals 11 11 31.23
Dragons over 4.5 8 9 Dragons over 4.5 10 12
Towers over 11.5 8 9 Towers over 11.5 16 6

 

League Rank TL Tale of the Tape GGS League Rank
4 367.5 Gold Diff @ 10 min -453.1 7
4 671.2 Gold Diff @ 15 min 8.7 6
5 778.3 Gold Diff @ 20 min -379.3 6
2.8 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -9.6
5 26.6 Gold Diff / min first 20 -31.6 6
4 150.8 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -23.8 8
5 1801.0 Gold /min (GPM) 1802.6 4
3.4 Gold / min vs Avg 5.1
4 67.2 Gold Diff / min -85.5 8
4 1.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -1.0 8
4 1629.6 Kill Agnostic GPM 1620.1 5
4 41.5 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -40.7 7
8 1588.1 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1660.8 1
3 1941.1 GPM in wins 1913.6 6
2 370.9 Gold Diff per min in wins 273.3 7
3 1646.8 GPM in losses 1719.4 1
4 -266.9 Gold Diff per min in losses -354.7 8
51.6 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -101.1
3 -2.9 Win-Adjusted GPM -30.4 6
2 67.3 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -30.3 7
5 52.0 Dragon Control % 63.0 1
8 43.6 Herald Control % 60.0 2
5 53.8 Baron Control % 40.7 8
8.0 Quality Wins? 3.0
72.7 % of wins as Quality 33.3

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

I mentioned yesterday that Liquid have mostly taken care of business against the bottom half of the table but their form has stagnated quite a bit of late and their underlying numbers suggest a good but not great team. Golden Guardians are very linear but they know who they are and quite frankly in the LCS that gets the job done more often than you’d think.

Liquid should be favorites here but this is WAY too heavy handed plain and simple.

I like GGS first herald quite a bit as Liquid have tended to be slightly more dragon and scaling centric. They don’t tunnel on it but generally they want to use their strong laners to their advantage. GGS tend to full on caveman force neutral objectives early whether it’s correct to or not which makes them surprisingly good candidates for this sort of thing.

I’ll be taking GGS on the moneyline/kill spread split, GGS first herald and one other pick that you’ll see is unanimous today in every series…

My Picks:

Kill Spread: GGS +7.5 kills @ -116 (0.75 units)

Moneyline: GGS +242 (0.25 units)

Prop: GGS first herald @ +127 (1 unit)

Prop: OVER 12.5 towers @ +197 (1 unit)

 


 

CLG +229 vs Evil Geniuses -312

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -110 / under -119)

Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -112 / -6.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -109 / under -119)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: CLG +661 / EG -1327

Model Suggested Play: Evil Geniuses moneyline (strong)

Trends
EG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) CLG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 8 5 -210 Matches as Underdogs 4 14 +165
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 6 7 5.8 Against Kill Spread 6 12 +6
Kill Totals 10 3 26.04 Kill Totals 8 10 24.61
Team Kill Totals 9 4 15.04 Team Kill Totals 6 12 9.61
Game Time Totals 7 6 31.8 Game Time Totals 11 7 31.78
Dragons over 4.5 8 5 Dragons over 4.5 12 6
Towers over 11.5 9 4 Towers over 11.5 11 7

 

League Rank EG Tale of the Tape CLG League Rank
1 1084.6 Gold Diff @ 10 min -996.9 10
1 2124.3 Gold Diff @ 15 min -2031.9 10
1 1774.3 Gold Diff @ 20 min -2057.6 10
56.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -64.1
2 112.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 -76.2 9
3 158.5 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -366.8 10
1 1939.7 Gold /min (GPM) 1668.7 10
142.1 Gold / min vs Avg -128.8
2 158.5 Gold Diff / min -183.3 10
2 2.2 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.6 10
1 1711.8 Kill Agnostic GPM 1540.9 9
2 102.4 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -117.0 10
6 1609.4 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1657.9 2
2 2086.7 GPM in wins 1921.6 4
3 347.4 Gold Diff per min in wins 319.0 5
4 1645.6 GPM in losses 1589.7 9
1 -219.2 Gold Diff per min in losses -340.2 6
142.9 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -198.9
2 142.7 Win-Adjusted GPM -22.4 4
3 43.8 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 15.3 5
4 54.1 Dragon Control % 39.5 10
2 63.0 Herald Control % 33.3 10
2 57.6 Baron Control % 48.6 7
9.0 Quality Wins? 4.0
60.0 % of wins as Quality 66.7

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Evil Geniuses got counterpicked bot and mid and subsequently smashed by Immortals yesterday despite jumping out to a 4400+ gold lead in the first 20 minutes. Honestly the weirdest part about this was that Evil Geniuses STILL were able to get out to a gold lead despite the bottom lane getting completely dumpstered by Draven/Thresh. Post-rework Tahm Kench maybe not that best support anymore… just sayin’ it’s possible but if the other team is picking a lane bully or is able to you just can’t do it. Suffice to say, that one got away from them and honestly it’s impressive that they were able to amount a lead that big.

CLG have shown some guts after the soul crushing loss last Sunday, I have to give props for that but I’m backing EG here. First herald and first tower are both +EV options as is the EG kill spread but I’m sticking to the moneyline here because of how games can sometimes play out with these melee heavy comps.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Evil Geniuses -312 (2 units)

Prop: Evil Geniuses first tower @ -263 (2 units)

Prop: OVER 12.5 towers @ +191 (1 unit)

 


Cloud 9-122 vs TSM -105

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -115 / under -114)

Kill Spread: +0.5 @ -118 / -0.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -127 / under -102)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: C9 -108 / TSM -119

Model Suggested Play: none

Trends
C9 as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) TSM as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 12 9 -333 Matches as Underdogs 3 1 +125
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 10 11 6.2 Against Kill Spread 3 1 +3
Kill Totals 8 13 24.64 Kill Totals 1 3 23.50
Team Kill Totals 11 10 14.79 Team Kill Totals 3 1 10.75
Game Time Totals 11 10 31.1 Game Time Totals 3 1 32.50
Dragons over 4.5 11 10 Dragons over 4.5 2 2
Towers over 11.5 13 8 Towers over 11.5 3 1

 

League Rank C9 Tale of the Tape TSM League Rank
3 653.9 Gold Diff @ 10 min 862.7 2
3 836.6 Gold Diff @ 15 min 159.5 5
3 842.9 Gold Diff @ 20 min 109.5 4
31.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -4.6
3 63.7 Gold Diff / min first 20 29.1 4
2 312.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 108.3 6
2 1892.7 Gold /min (GPM) 1772.4 7
95.1 Gold / min vs Avg -25.2
3 118.4 Gold Diff / min 52.3 5
3 1.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.7 5
2 1690.5 Kill Agnostic GPM 1613.3 6
3 74.8 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 37.2 5
5 1615.7 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1576.1 9
1 2114.1 GPM in wins 1860.3 10
1 432.9 Gold Diff per min in wins 215.8 9
2 1649.1 GPM in losses 1618.5 6
2 -227.4 Gold Diff per min in losses -249.3 3
102.9 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 36.7
1 170.1 Win-Adjusted GPM -83.7 10
1 129.3 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -87.9 9
5 52.3 Dragon Control % 57.0 3
8 47.8 Herald Control % 55.6 3
4 54.8 Baron Control % 71.9 1
9.0 Quality Wins? 6.0
69.2 % of wins as Quality 40.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Cloud 9 are starting to round into form so I’m partial to them in this spot despite the model disagreeing and making TSM slight favorites. Part of the reason it’s making them favorites is because of their ridiculous standard deviation rating in baron control, with that off the table Cloud 9 are the favorites.

I think a lot of people are calling TSM flukey and while I don’t think as many of the “gifted” wins were as much that as good defense, it’s fair to say that a few of them were absolutely lucky wins. That said, there is something about how this team sets up for objectives that completely perplexes other teams and I don’t want to understate that. In a weird way they’re almost like the stronger version of Golden Guardians’ play style in that they just brute force objectives and get there before you. Leverage matters.

I’m not taking a position in this one as I think with those adjustments that Cloud 9’s price is probably about right, maybe it’s a little cheap but it’s not enough to really move the needle for me on this one.

Kill Total unders were flagged by the model in this one as a double digit edge on market price based on frequency but my projection makes this a 25.74 kill game so I’m taking a position on it, just not as strong as the model likes. Only 42.86% / 33.33% of games for these two have gone OVER the alt total of 23.5 kills. I think this might end up being a contested bloodbath but at +108 that’s a ripe price for a rare occurrence that I’ll take a shot on it.

My Picks:

Kill Total (alt): UNDER 23.5 @ +108 (1 unit)

Prop: OVER 12.5 towers @ +162 (1 unit)

 


Immortals +214 vs 100 Thieves -286

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -111 / under -118)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -122 / -7.5 @ -108

Team Kill Totals: 8.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -130 / under +100)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: IMT +284 / 100T -397

Model Suggested Play: 100T moneyline (light)

Trends
100T as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) IMT as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 14 6 -308 Matches as Underdogs 4 8 +170
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 10 10 6.0 Against Kill Spread 6 6 +5
Kill Totals 8 12 24.50 Kill Totals 6 6 23.83
Team Kill Totals 8 12 14.60 Team Kill Totals 7 5 9.42
Game Time Totals 10 10 31.9 Game Time Totals 9 3 31.67
Dragons over 4.5 9 11 Dragons over 4.5 8 4
Towers over 11.5 12 8 Towers over 11.5 8 4

 

League Rank 100T Tale of the Tape IMT League Rank
5 316.4 Gold Diff @ 10 min -445.5 6
2 1271.3 Gold Diff @ 15 min -792.5 8
2 712.8 Gold Diff @ 20 min -351.5 8
43.7 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 7.1
1 117.2 Gold Diff / min first 20 -41.5 7
1 312.9 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 5.4 7
3 1825.8 Gold /min (GPM) 1765.5 8
28.2 Gold / min vs Avg -32.1
1 173.8 Gold Diff / min -39.2 7
1 2.4 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.6 7
3 1630.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1593.7 7
1 112.8 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -41.1 8
10 1518.1 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1634.8 3
7 1910.4 GPM in wins 1919.9 5
4 342.3 Gold Diff per min in wins 261.0 8
10 1554.8 GPM in losses 1625.1 5
10 -365.5 Gold Diff per min in losses -312.2 5
158.2 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -54.8
7 -33.6 Win-Adjusted GPM -24.2 5
4 38.7 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -42.6 8
2 59.2 Dragon Control % 46.9 7
4 51.2 Herald Control % 41.3 9
3 56.7 Baron Control % 48.6 7
12.0 Quality Wins? 5.0
70.6 % of wins as Quality 41.7

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

With their win tonight, Immortals locked a playoff position so it’s potentially a bit of a let down spot but I doubt we’ll see that. They’re only a game behind Dignitas and could overtake them for an upper bracket seeding which would afford them a double elimination (a series loss) in the playoffs instead of the lower bracket teams who only get one loss. Immortals have somewhat been stagnating recently in their progression but they’re still a good but not great team.

100 Thieves have to fight to keep hold of their #1 seed and I’d expect them to take care of business here. My favorite positions are the under kill total and 100T first tower which show strong edges on the market prices.

My Picks:

Kill Total: UNDER 24.5 @ -118 (1 unit)

Prop: 100T first tower @ -263 (1 unit)

Prop: OVER 12.5 towers @ +202 (1 unit)

 


FlyQuest -145 vs Dignitas +114

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -118 / +3.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -114 / under -114)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: FLY -162 / DIG +127

Model Suggested Play: none

Trends
FLY as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) DIG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 0 2 -161 Matches as Underdogs 5 12 +155
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 0 2 4.5 Against Kill Spread 9 8 +6
Kill Totals 1 1 24.50 Kill Totals 8 9 25.21
Team Kill Totals 1 1 13.50 Team Kill Totals 9 8 10.09
Game Time Totals 1 1 32.0 Game Time Totals 8 9 31.82
Dragons over 4.5 1 1 Dragons over 4.5 6 11
Towers over 11.5 1 1 Towers over 11.5 7 10

 

 

League Rank FLYA Tale of the Tape DIG League Rank
8 -716.9 Gold Diff @ 10 min -854.4 9
9 -1792.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min -326.0 7
9 -1794.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -142.0 7
-39.2 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -23.4
10 -87.6 Gold Diff / min first 20 -50.6 8
5 124.8 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -238.3 9
6 1793.3 Gold /min (GPM) 1714.0 9
-4.3 Gold / min vs Avg -83.5
6 2.1 Gold Diff / min -108.4 9
6 0.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -1.5 9
8 1592.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1539.0 10
6 -5.7 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -95.7 9
7 1597.8 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1634.7 4
8 1890.6 GPM in wins 1881.9 9
10 184.2 Gold Diff per min in wins 289.5 6
8 1598.7 GPM in losses 1610.7 7
9 -362.2 Gold Diff per min in losses -353.4 7
-13.5 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -124.0
8 -53.5 Win-Adjusted GPM -62.1 9
10 -119.5 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -14.1 6
9 44.4 Dragon Control % 44.6 8
6 50.0 Herald Control % 51.1 5
5 54.5 Baron Control % 34.6 10
2.0 Quality Wins? 3.0
50.0 % of wins as Quality 33.3

(Tale of the Tape for FlyQuest is only since Academy roster stepped in)

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

I honestly have no idea what to do in this one. FlyQuest are clearly being figured out now that teams have some experience and film on them as well as time to prepare and Dignitas are as inconsistent as… I don’t know think of some example.

Maybe Dignitas first blood? That’s the only real play I like here but I’m just passing too many unknowns. FlyQuest should be much more motivated as they need to hold off the Golden Guardians to lock a playoff spot while everyone else is in already but I’m not sure that’s enough to justify a position.

My Picks:

 

Prop: OVER 12.5 towers @ +164 (1 unit)

 

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and you can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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