Saturday, June 17th Recap

 

UltraPrime vs Team WE (Net: -2.0 units)

Rogue Warriors vs RareAtom (no action)

TOP Esports vs FunPlus Phoenix (no action)

 

Gen.G vs Hanwha Life (no action)

T1 vs DAMWON (Net: +1.1 units)

 

SK Gaming vs Excel (Net: +0.862 units)

Schalke 04 vs Misfits (Net: +0.73 units)

Vitality vs MAD Lions (Net: -2.0 units)

Rogue vs Astralis (Net: -0.7 units)

G2 Esports vs Fnatic (Net: +2.0 units)

 

 

Immortals vs Cloud 9 (pending)

FlyQuest vs TSM (pending)

Dignitas vs 100 Thieves (pending)

Liquid vs CLG (pending)

Golden Guardians vs Evil Geniuses (pending)

 

LPL Net Total: -2.0 units

LCK Net Total: +1.1 units

LEC Net Total: +0.882 units

LCS Net Total: (pending)

 

Daily Net Total: (pending)

 

 

 


LPL Summer 2021

Week Six – Day Seven

 

 

LNG Esports -200 (-1.5 maps @ +158, +1.5 @ -687)

vs

OMG +156 (+1.5 maps @ -204, -1.5 @ +434)

 

Map Moneyline: LNG -175 / OMG +136

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -110 / under -118)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -109 / +4.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -108 / under -120)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -165 / +129 (map), -199 / +155 (series), +163 / -211 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: none

Starters:

LNG – Ale, Tarzan, Icon, LP, Kedaya

OMG – New, AKi, Creme, Able, Cold

Trends
LNG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) OMG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 3 3 -800 Matches as Underdogs 3 4 +414
Against Map Spread 2 4 -18 Against Map Spread 3 4 +8
Against Kill Spread 6 9 6.7 Against Kill Spread 9 8 +8
Kill Totals 4 11 25.33 Kill Totals 9 8 25.21
Team Kill Totals 5 10 15.83 Team Kill Totals 9 8 8.93
Game Time Totals 8 7 30.5 Game Time Totals 9 8 30.14
Dragons over 4.5 4 11 Dragons over 4.5 6 11
Towers over 11.5 7 8 Towers over 11.5 5 12

 

 

League Rank LNG Tale of the Tape OMG League Rank
14 -493.8 Gold Diff @ 10 min -1240.6 16
15 -1319.7 Gold Diff @ 15 min -811.5 13
12 -2125.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -812.5 13
47.2 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 12.5
8 17.3 Gold Diff / min first 20 -47.6 10
7 479.9 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -84.5 14
7 1815.9 Gold /min (GPM) 1743.8 13
26.8 Gold / min vs Avg -45.3
5 108.4 Gold Diff / min -84.5 13
5 1.5 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -1.2 13
10 1607.0 Kill Agnostic GPM 1557.9 14
8 34.4 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -69.6 14
9 1945.6 GPM in wins 1886.1 16
7 349.1 Gold Diff per min in wins 219.5 16
13 1608.2 GPM in losses 1588.5 15
6 -276.8 Gold Diff per min in losses -416.1 16
112.7 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -80.2
9 -4.3 Win-Adjusted GPM -63.9 16
7 27.5 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -102.2 16
12 46.1 Dragon Control % 45.4 13
8 50.0 Herald Control % 40.0 15
11 51.5 Baron Control % 53.6 8
10.0 Quality Wins? 5.0
62.5 % of wins as Quality 41.7

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 35.106%
2 1 28.611%
1 2 19.678%
0 2 16.606%
(Series Win): 63.717%

Light and Iwandy have been one of the better bottom lanes in the LPL even dating back to the 2020 season and they’ll be missing their first action this Summer for the academy bottom lane. It’s going to be interesting to see how this goes or if it really makes that big an impact or not. LNG’s bottom lane are a rock while the top side is a bit more volatile. It’s a nice balance that works for them. If you introduce some more variance to that via a less stable bottom lane presence things could go poorly.

The hype seems to have finally worn off of this OMG team and I think people are realizing that if Creme isn’t just being an absolute hero that this team doesn’t really do much. Opposing teams seem to have figured this out too and they’re just making an effort not to let him beat you.

So the model made this fairly close to the market price, no suggested play as you’re just eating vig. The question becomes whether or not this bottom lane change makes OMG worth a play or not. Against middle of the table competition, OMG have been fairly competitive and it’s those kinds of teams that Creme has been able to find plays to make which makes me want to make a play on OMG here but I also just think this team isn’t all that good so I’m sheepish.

Stylistically these two are very similar teams, opting to scale and play melee assassins where possible and spike critical team fights. Often times when you get matchups between these types of teams it’s more of a coinflip than not which is another piece of the case for the underdogs.

I’m just going to stay away from sides in this one. Too many unknowns, too much variance. If I had to take a side it’d be OMG.

I do like OMG first blood here though. 65.2% vs LNG’s 46%. Again, high volatility market means I need a pretty big threshold to justify positions but this is a big enough delta.

 

My Picks:

Prop: Map 1 OMG first blood @ -103 (1.03 units)

Prop: Map 2 OMG first blood @ -103 (1.03 units)

 


 

Suning +127 (+1.5 maps @ -250, -1.5 @ +356)

vs

JD Gaming -164 (-1.5 maps @ +191, +1.5 @ -526)

 

Map Moneyline: SN +116 / JDG -149

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -125 / under -104)

Kill Spread: +3.5 @ -112 / -3.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -130 / under +100)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +120 / -154 (map), +139 / -180 (series), -231 / +178 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: none

Starters:

SN – Bin, SofM, Angel, Huanfeng, ON

JDG – Zoom, Kanavi, Yagao, LokeN, LvMao

Trends
JDG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) SN as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 5 2 -1164 Matches as Underdogs 2 1 +176
Against Map Spread 4 3 -91 Against Map Spread 2 1 -191
Against Kill Spread 8 9 7.4 Against Kill Spread 6 2 +5
Kill Totals 9 8 26.36 Kill Totals 4 4 25.17
Team Kill Totals 9 8 16.36 Team Kill Totals 6 2 10.50
Game Time Totals 8 9 30.0 Game Time Totals 5 3 31.33
Dragons over 4.5 11 6 Dragons over 4.5 4 4
Towers over 11.5 8 9 Towers over 11.5 4 4

 

 

League Rank JDG Tale of the Tape Suning League Rank
6 189.2 Gold Diff @ 10 min -79.6 9
9 126.1 Gold Diff @ 15 min 314.7 6
9 -375.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min 1012.5 10
-58.7 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 39.5
12 27.7 Gold Diff / min first 20 16.7 9
4 600.0 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 392.5 8
4 1867.3 Gold /min (GPM) 1806.2 9
78.3 Gold / min vs Avg 17.1
4 120.6 Gold Diff / min 41.3 9
4 1.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.6 9
5 1635.2 Kill Agnostic GPM 1621.2 7
5 62.1 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 14.7 9
6 1983.9 GPM in wins 1924.0 13
9 335.4 Gold Diff per min in wins 285.4 14
10 1634.3 GPM in losses 1668.7 4
9 -309.0 Gold Diff per min in losses -243.6 3
124.9 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 45.6
6 33.9 Win-Adjusted GPM -26.0 13
9 13.8 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -36.2 14
6 55.6 Dragon Control % 50.8 7
17 34.9 Herald Control % 50.0 8
3 63.3 Baron Control % 51.7 9
10.0 Quality Wins? 9.0
62.5 % of wins as Quality 64.3

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 33.107%
2 1 28.115%
1 2 20.748%
0 2 18.029%
(Series Win): 61.223%

It’d be easy to point to Suning’s recent losses to weaker teams and apply ye olde transitive property to it but that’s lazy analysis. Good teams sometimes lose and you could tell for that RW series especially that they were just completely checked out. I think a lot of people are going to want to back JDG here for these kinds of reasons.

In reality, these are two very evenly matched teams. You look at the underlying metrics and it suggests the same thing, that JDG are very slightly better. I think this is an accurate market price. I’ll be passing on this contest. The only play the model flagged was over 4.5 dragons but it was a small edge.

My Picks:

no wagers

 


 

EDward Gaming -250 (-1.5 maps @ +136, +1.5 @ -833)

vs

Royal Never Give Up +190 (+1.5 maps @ -175, -1.5 @ +504)

 

Map Moneyline: EDG -200 / RNG +156

Kill Total: 27.5 (over -116 / under -112)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -115 / +6.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -114 / under -114)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -234 / +180 (map), -348 / +254 (series), +108 / -138 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: EDG series moneyline (light)

Starters:

EDG – Flandre, Jiejie, Scout, Viper, Meiko

RNG – Xiaohu, Wei, Cryin, GALA, Ming

Trends
EDG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) RNG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 10 1 -1671 Matches as Underdogs 0 2 +13
Against Map Spread 9 2 -105 Against Map Spread 1 1 -295
Against Kill Spread 17 6 8.1 Against Kill Spread 2 4 +2
Kill Totals 13 10 25.23 Kill Totals 6 0 27.50
Team Kill Totals 13 10 16.23 Team Kill Totals 3 3 13.00
Game Time Totals 13 10 30.5 Game Time Totals 2 4 31.00
Dragons over 4.5 10 13 Dragons over 4.5 1 5
Towers over 11.5 8 15 Towers over 11.5 4 2

 

 

League Rank EDG Tale of the Tape Royal Never GU League Rank
1 1388.3 Gold Diff @ 10 min 126.9 8
1 3345.0 Gold Diff @ 15 min 886.3 3
1 3537.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min 825.0 5
144.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -63.6
1 203.0 Gold Diff / min first 20 14.3 13
5 573.5 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 696.4 2
1 1932.3 Gold /min (GPM) 1851.6 5
143.3 Gold / min vs Avg 62.5
1 308.3 Gold Diff / min 62.9 7
1 4.3 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.9 7
2 1657.6 Kill Agnostic GPM 1644.1 3
1 155.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 62.9 4
8 1969.5 GPM in wins 1994.8 3
2 383.4 Gold Diff per min in wins 365.4 4
2 1684.3 GPM in losses 1679.7 3
1 -192.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -300.1 7
312.6 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 67.2
8 19.5 Win-Adjusted GPM 44.8 3
2 61.8 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 43.7 4
1 66.3 Dragon Control % 47.9 11
3 60.9 Herald Control % 52.5 6
1 68.8 Baron Control % 40.7 13
14.0 Quality Wins? 9.0
70.0 % of wins as Quality 75.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 45.105%
2 1 29.625%
1 2 14.486%
0 2 10.785%
(Series Win): 74.729%

This is another one where I think price memory is going to play a role in how people feel. I think a lot of people “FEEL” like you have to take RNG here and a lot of this has to do with whether or not you think the performance we’ve seen from RNG is what we should expect moving forward or if they’ll improve as the season goes on. Should we expect something similar to what we have seen from RNG? Slightly better? Much better? Worse? How you evaluate this team has a lot to do with this handicap.

I personally think this is just what RNG is. This metagame hasn’t been good for them and I think now that teams have had a full season of film to dissect this team they aren’t quite as dominant as they were during Spring. EDG have significantly improved in every performance metrics from Spring split while almost every other LPL team have taken a noticeable decline.

So really is it that outlandish that EDG are this large a favorite? Based on the performance we’ve seen thus far in Summer I don’t think so at all. The catch is that RNG have been pretty decent as well, it’s not like this is a bad team or anything like that.

I’m going to play the EDG moneyline only here but my favorite bet on the board is actually the EDG first dragon.

My Picks:

Moneyline: EDG -250 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 EDG first dragon @ -145 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 EDG first dragon @ -137 (1 unit)

 


 

LCK Summer 2021

Week Six – Day Four

 

 

Fredit Brion -185 (-1.5 maps @ +167, +1.5 @ -625)

vs

DRX +153 (+1.5 maps @ -217, -1.5 @ +400)

 

Map Moneyline: BRO -164 / DRX +128

Kill Total: 21.5 (over -114 / under -114)

Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -111 / +3.5 @ -118

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -114 / under -114)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:   -311 / +230 (map), -521 / +387 (series), -126 / +101 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: Brion series moneyline and -1.5 maps (big)

 

Trends
BRO as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) DRX as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 0 1 -192 Matches as Underdogs 1 9 +284
Against Map Spread 0 1 +154 Against Map Spread 4 6 -85
Against Kill Spread 1 2 5.5 Against Kill Spread 10 14 +6
Kill Totals 1 2 22.50 Kill Totals 12 12 22.90
Team Kill Totals 0 3 12.50 Team Kill Totals 10 14 8.70
Game Time Totals 1 2 33.0 Game Time Totals 11 13 32.40
Dragons over 4.5 1 2 Dragons over 4.5 9 15
Towers over 11.5 1 2 Towers over 11.5 10 13

 

 

League Rank BRO Tale of the Tape DRX League Rank
5.0 -75.8 Gold Diff @ 10 min -470.6 9.0
6.0 -22.8 Gold Diff @ 15 min -738.7 10.0
2.0 13.9 Gold Diff @ 20 min 22.4 10.0
-11.3 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -25.9
5.0 -0.7 Gold Diff / min first 20 -59.7 10.0
7.0 -54.8 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -493.2 10.0
9.0 1733.0 Gold /min (GPM) 1674.1 10.0
-33.6 Gold / min vs Avg -92.5
7.0 -20.1 Gold Diff / min -210.3 10.0
7.0 -0.3 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.9 10.0
6.0 1603.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1566.6 10.0
8.0 -15.8 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -124.7 10.0
4.0 1926.5 GPM in wins 1836.2 10.0
4.0 321.1 Gold Diff per min in wins 238.4 10.0
10.0 1565.3 GPM in losses 1635.5 3.0
5.0 -315.9 Gold Diff per min in losses -317.1 6.0
-20.8 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -211.0
4.0 12.6 Win-Adjusted GPM -77.8 10.0
4.0 17.0 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -65.7 10.0
1.0 61.8 Dragon Control % 30.8 10.0
8.0 44.4 Herald Control % 36.7 9.0
9.0 32.4 Baron Control % 24.1 10.0
8.0 Quality Wins? 1.0
53.3 % of wins as Quality 20.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 52.818%
2 1 28.864%
1 2 10.852%
0 2 7.466%
(Series Win): 81.682%

What a world to see Brion as double digit edge on the market price in the model. Ain’t that something?

For real though, I don’t necessarily think this is quite as huge a slam dunk as the model does but I do think it’s worth a play for sure. DRX absolutely suck. They’re still trying to jam a square peg in a round hole and just because they picked up a win recently with this new bottom lane doesn’t really change my evaluation of them whatsoever.

The model also flagged kill total unders even with the low total here but I’m opting for a different derivative market to attack in this one… you guessed it, Brion dragon props.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Brion -185 (1.85 units)

Map Spread: Brion -1.5 maps @ +167 (0.25 units)

Prop: Map 1 Brion first dragon @ -137 (1.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 Brion first dragon @ -137 (1.5 units)

 


 

Nongshim RedForce -222 (-1.5 maps @ +141, +1.5 @ -769)

vs

KT Rolster +182 (+1.5 maps @ -182, -1.5 @ +479)

 

Map Moneyline: NS -196 / KT +152

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -114 / under -115)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -123 / +4.5 @ -105

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -116 / under -112)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  -127 / +100 (map), -130 / +109 (series), +222 / -300 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: KT Rolster series moneyline and +1.5 maps

 

Trends
NS as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) KT as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 4 2 -182 Matches as Underdogs 2 4 +246
Against Map Spread 1 5 +183 Against Map Spread 5 1 -144
Against Kill Spread 7 9 3.5 Against Kill Spread 7 9 +5
Kill Totals 5 11 23.33 Kill Totals 7 9 23.50
Team Kill Totals 8 8 12.83 Team Kill Totals 7 9 9.33
Game Time Totals 8 8 33.0 Game Time Totals 7 9 32.17
Dragons over 4.5 7 9 Dragons over 4.5 6 10
Towers over 11.5 3 12 Towers over 11.5 4 12

 

 

League Rank NS Tale of the Tape KT League Rank
7.0 -258.2 Gold Diff @ 10 min 200.1 2.0
9.0 -378.8 Gold Diff @ 15 min -79.3 7.0
6.0 70.3 Gold Diff @ 20 min -414.6 7.0
-0.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -2.6
8.0 -12.8 Gold Diff / min first 20 -3.7 6.0
3.0 76.1 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -125.5 8.0
5.0 1765.7 Gold /min (GPM) 1760.6 6.0
-0.9 Gold / min vs Avg -6.0
4.0 21.5 Gold Diff / min -19.7 6.0
4.0 0.3 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.3 6.0
7.0 1599.0 Kill Agnostic GPM 1595.9 8.0
6.0 -8.3 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -18.3 9.0
9.0 1878.2 GPM in wins 1932.5 3.0
9.0 240.3 Gold Diff per min in wins 311.6 6.0
9.0 1581.7 GPM in losses 1600.1 6.0
9.0 -336.7 Gold Diff per min in losses -328.9 7.0
20.8 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -20.4
9.0 -35.8 Win-Adjusted GPM 18.5 3.0
9.0 -63.7 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 7.6 6.0
5.0 51.1 Dragon Control % 46.0 8.0
5.0 50.0 Herald Control % 48.2 6.0
6.0 48.6 Baron Control % 54.5 4.0
5.0 Quality Wins? 11.0
38.5 % of wins as Quality 78.6

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 28.006%
2 1 26.370%
1 2 23.459%
0 2 22.164%
(Series Win): 54.377%

While Nongshim have been picking up wins their performance metrics have more or less remained exactly league average in a lot of categories. This is a classic sign for potential regression. I think Nongshim are pretty good and in much the same way the EDG and RNG in Spring were “better than their numbers” I do think that’s the case with this team, however, it does reveal that maybe this team isn’t quite as good as the hype. You could also paint them like DRX in Spring, the team with garbage numbers that just kept finding ways to win games. Did that make them a good team? Certainly not as we can now see.

I’m not quite as extreme as the DRX case on Nongshim but I would definitely call myself bearish on their overall outlook because at the moment I think they’re being dramatically overrated.

This is a CLASSIC let down spot AND I think Nongshim are due for some regression as it is. This is a borderline must win match for KT Rolster who now sit at 4-7 match record while Nongshim are ridiculously above expectation sitting at 8-3 in matches. They absolutely need this match to stay in the playoff hunt while Nongshim might take their foot off the gas a bit if you prefer a more narrative driven evaluation.

I mostly just think this number is ridiculous. KT aren’t a bad team and Nongshim are way way WAY overrated right now.

My Picks:

Map Spread: KT Rolster +1.5 maps @ -182 (3.64 units)

Moneyline: KT Rolster +182 (1 unit)

Map Spread: KT Rolster -1.5 maps @ +479 (0.25 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -208 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -208 (1 unit)

 

 


LCS Summer 2021

Week Seven – Day Three

 

(I haven’t gotten a chance to update LCS logs as I had some emergency stuff come up last night and this morning so all trend and tale of the tape charts as well as model projections do not include Saturday’s games)

 

CLG +122 vs Immortals -156

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -111 / under -118)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -116 / -4.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -145 / under +112)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  CLG +163 / IMT -212

Model Suggested Play: Immortals moneyline

Trends
IMT as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) CLG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 6 3 -154 Matches as Underdogs 3 11 +153
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 6 3 3.1 Against Kill Spread 4 10 +5
Kill Totals 4 5 24.39 Kill Totals 7 7 24.57
Team Kill Totals 4 5 13.06 Team Kill Totals 4 10 9.64
Game Time Totals 2 7 32.0 Game Time Totals 8 6 31.79
Dragons over 4.5 5 4 Dragons over 4.5 9 5
Towers over 11.5 5 4 Towers over 11.5 7 7

 

League Rank IMT Tale of the Tape CLG League Rank
8 -171.3 Gold Diff @ 10 min -1065.2 10
7 16.1 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1806.4 10
8 -347.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -2549.6 10
18.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -49.2
7 -19.3 Gold Diff / min first 20 -75.6 9
6 10.1 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -334.2 9
6 1767.3 Gold /min (GPM) 1671.0 10
-14.2 Gold / min vs Avg -110.4
6 -28.6 Gold Diff / min -171.0 9
6 -0.4 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.4 9
7 1587.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1535.9 9
7 -36.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -111.8 10
6 1624.5 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1647.7 2
4 1936.3 GPM in wins 1921.6 5
7 286.3 Gold Diff per min in wins 319.0 5
6 1615.1 GPM in losses 1581.5 8
5 -311.9 Gold Diff per min in losses -346.0 7
-24.4 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -166.8
4 -4.6 Win-Adjusted GPM -19.3 5
7 -16.2 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 16.5 5
6 48.4 Dragon Control % 37.0 10
9 42.1 Herald Control % 35.1 10
6 44.4 Baron Control % 40.7 7
5.0 Quality Wins? 4.0
55.6 % of wins as Quality 80.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

This line opened higher with Immortals in the -170s and has come down a tad. I think Immortals are the better team and are worth a play here even as favorites. There doesn’t seem to be any respect for this squad for whatever reason. They’ve had some bad losses but for the most part they’ve been very competitive even against the good teams this season and with just a couple of weeks remaining are looking to chase down that 6th playoff spot to avoid being in the losers’ bracket for playoffs. I think they can catch Dignitas but that’s a different story. Point being, Immortals will remain “up” for the rest of the season.

CLG on the other hand have been a complete wreck and continue to get worse and worse as frustration has started to set in. They seem to completely “sell out” for a play early in every game and most of the time it completely blows them out.

I’m going to play Immortals and the OVER 4.5 dragons in this contest. Both of these teams have gone over that dragon total in 63+% of their games this season and the time total is projecting to be roughly 33 minutes.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Immortals -156 (1.56 units)

Prop: OVER 4.5 dragons @ -105 (1.05 units)

 


 

TSM -122 vs Team Liquid -104

 

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -122 / under -108)

Kill Spread: -1.5 @ -112 / +1.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +100 under /130)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  TSM -115 / TL -110

Model Suggested Play: none

Trends
TSM as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) TL as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 9 6 -270 Matches as Underdogs 0 4 +59
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 4 11 5.7 Against Kill Spread 0 4 +3
Kill Totals 4 11 24.23 Kill Totals 1 3 25.00
Team Kill Totals 4 11 14.30 Team Kill Totals 0 4 12.00
Game Time Totals 6 9 32.1 Game Time Totals 2 2 32.25
Dragons over 4.5 5 10 Dragons over 4.5 3 1
Towers over 11.5 8 7 Towers over 11.5 3 1

 

League Rank TSM Tale of the Tape TL League Rank
1 714.2 Gold Diff @ 10 min 83.0 4
6 117.9 Gold Diff @ 15 min 295.8 4
3 43.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -16.1 4
-15.6 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -1.1
5 22.8 Gold Diff / min first 20 27.9 4
5 80.4 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 223.8 3
7 1755.8 Gold /min (GPM) 1815.0 3
-25.6 Gold / min vs Avg 33.6
5 36.6 Gold Diff / min 95.6 3
5 0.5 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.4 3
6 1602.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1632.0 3
5 32.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 55.2 3
9 1570.1 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1576.8 8
10 1848.7 GPM in wins 1941.1 3
9 218.1 Gold Diff per min in wins 370.9 2
5 1618.5 GPM in losses 1641.6 4
3 -249.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -283.0 4
40.7 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 99.8
10 -92.2 Win-Adjusted GPM 0.2 3
9 -84.4 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 68.5 2
4 53.4 Dragon Control % 56.0 3
3 59.5 Herald Control % 42.9 7
1 70.4 Baron Control % 58.3 3
5.0 Quality Wins? 8.0
41.7 % of wins as Quality 72.7

 

 

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

I have these two teams roughly similar. Personally I think Liquid are slightly better overall but not by enough to really make a case for a wager here. It’s not like you’re getting tremendous value either way.

TL first dragon is the biggest edge on the board though (TSM 47% / TL 74%)  and that’s where I’ll be.

My Picks:

Prop: Liquid first dragon @ -154 (1 unit)

 


 

Evil Geniuses -250 vs Dignitas +191

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -122 / under -108)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -127 / +6.5 @ -103

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -114 / under -114)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  EG -322 / DIG +238

Model Suggested Play: EG moneyline

Trends
EG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) DIG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 6 4 -207 Matches as Underdogs 4 10 +147
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 4 6 5.8 Against Kill Spread 8 6 +6
Kill Totals 9 1 26.10 Kill Totals 5 9 25.14
Team Kill Totals 7 3 15.00 Team Kill Totals 6 8 10.07
Game Time Totals 6 4 31.7 Game Time Totals 6 8 31.79
Dragons over 4.5 7 3 Dragons over 4.5 4 10
Towers over 11.5 7 3 Towers over 11.5 5 9

 

 

League Rank EG Tale of the Tape DIG League Rank
2 401.8 Gold Diff @ 10 min -18.7 6
1 796.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min -141.0 8
2 960.8 Gold Diff @ 20 min -44.7 7
38.9 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -13.1
2 83.4 Gold Diff / min first 20 -29.2 8
4 123.7 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -213.0 8
1 1921.7 Gold /min (GPM) 1715.9 8
140.3 Gold / min vs Avg -65.5
2 123.7 Gold Diff / min -80.1 7
2 1.8 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -1.1 8
1 1705.6 Kill Agnostic GPM 1540.2 8
2 82.1 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -85.0 8
7 1623.5 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1625.2 5
2 2082.7 GPM in wins 1881.9 8
4 323.8 Gold Diff per min in wins 289.5 6
3 1645.6 GPM in losses 1595.1 7
1 -219.2 Gold Diff per min in losses -348.9 8
127.9 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -75.9
2 141.8 Win-Adjusted GPM -59.0 8
4 21.4 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -12.9 6
5 53.3 Dragon Control % 45.7 8
2 60.5 Herald Control % 56.8 4
4 55.2 Baron Control % 35.0 10
8.0 Quality Wins? 4.0
66.7 % of wins as Quality 50.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Easy EG bet for me. If you like the underdogs I actually think the best way to attack this market is to take first props with Dig who have been very strong early in games with 50%+ rates in all four “firsts” categories. Best edge on market price is first herald although EG have an equally impressive rate in their firsts.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Evil Geniuses -7.5 kills @ -102 (1.02 units)

 

 


 

FlyQuest +205 vs 100 Thieves -270

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -110 / under -119)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -114 / -7.5 @ -115

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -103 / under -127)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  FLY +509 / 100T -841

Model Suggested Play: 100T moneyline (see note)

Trends
100T as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) FLY as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 11 5 -320 Matches as Underdogs 7 10 +176
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 8 8 6.3 Against Kill Spread 9 8 +6
Kill Totals 6 10 24.50 Kill Totals 7 10 24.79
Team Kill Totals 6 10 14.69 Team Kill Totals 9 8 9.62
Game Time Totals 6 10 31.9 Game Time Totals 7 10 31.71
Dragons over 4.5 6 10 Dragons over 4.5 9 8
Towers over 11.5 9 7 Towers over 11.5 12 5

 

 

 

League Rank 100T Tale of the Tape FLY League Rank
3 314.2 Gold Diff @ 10 min -312.9 9
2 776.4 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1152.7 9
1 1156.9 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1258.6 9
52.3 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -47.7
1 111.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 -95.5 10
1 288.4 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -388.2 10
4 1814.1 Gold /min (GPM) 1674.2 9
32.7 Gold / min vs Avg -107.2
1 158.7 Gold Diff / min -173.7 10
1 2.2 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.5 10
5 1622.6 Kill Agnostic GPM 1531.6 10
1 104.3 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -102.2 9
10 1518.3 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1633.8 3
7 1906.8 GPM in wins 1855.5 9
3 345.9 Gold Diff per min in wins 170.9 10
10 1554.8 GPM in losses 1568.4 9
9 -365.5 Gold Diff per min in losses -374.7 10
162.9 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -169.5
7 -34.1 Win-Adjusted GPM -85.4 9
3 43.5 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -131.5 10
2 57.7 Dragon Control % 37.4 9
8 42.4 Herald Control % 45.7 6
2 66.7 Baron Control % 40.7 7
11.0 Quality Wins? 3.0
78.6 % of wins as Quality 42.9

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

You have to take the model’s projection on this with a grain of salt in this case. Even if I adjust this to look at just FlyQuest’s most recent games with the new roster you’d get something close to the market price so the question becomes how legitimate is this roster. I thought even in their loss to EG they did a good job finding opportunities to get themselves back into the game but generally speaking these young upstart types of teams get worse as teams get more film and scrim time against them.

Call me a cynic but I think 100 Thieves are going to completely obliterate this team even though they’ve looked a little sketchy at times themselves recently.

The kill total under is also intriguing here but I don’t really have enough data on this new look FlyQuest to really trust the numbers on what I’m seeing so I’ll pass and stick to just 100T sides.

 

My Picks:

Kill Spread: 100T -7.5 kills @ -115 (1.15 units)

Parlay (2): EG moneyline + 100T moneyline @ -109 (1.09 units)

 


 

Golden Guardians +216 vs Cloud 9 -286

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -122 / under -106)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -119 / -7.5 @ -110

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -101 / under -128)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line:  GGS -106 / C9 -119

Model Suggested Play: Golden Guardians moneyline (strong)

Trends
C9 as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) GGS as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 9 9 -335 Matches as Underdogs 8 11 +249
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 7 11 6.1 Against Kill Spread 13 6 +7
Kill Totals 7 11 24.56 Kill Totals 13 6 24.82
Team Kill Totals 8 10 14.67 Team Kill Totals 14 5 8.92
Game Time Totals 11 7 31.1 Game Time Totals 10 9 31.16
Dragons over 4.5 11 7 Dragons over 4.5 8 11
Towers over 11.5 11 7 Towers over 11.5 13 6

 

 

League Rank C9 Tale of the Tape GGS League Rank
5 17.5 Gold Diff @ 10 min -140.2 7
5 125.2 Gold Diff @ 15 min 527.1 3
5 27.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min 1087.5 6
18.7 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -1.3
3 38.5 Gold Diff / min first 20 -15.9 6
2 230.6 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -5.6 7
2 1871.5 Gold /min (GPM) 1807.9 5
90.0 Gold / min vs Avg 26.4
4 77.2 Gold Diff / min -80.2 8
4 1.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.9 7
2 1683.8 Kill Agnostic GPM 1627.5 4
4 53.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -35.4 6
4 1630.2 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1662.9 1
1 2118.6 GPM in wins 1915.8 6
1 415.6 Gold Diff per min in wins 284.5 8
2 1649.1 GPM in losses 1729.3 1
2 -227.4 Gold Diff per min in losses -345.5 6
81.3 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -76.1
1 177.7 Win-Adjusted GPM -25.1 6
1 113.2 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -17.9 8
7 47.8 Dragon Control % 63.9 1
5 50.0 Herald Control % 61.1 1
5 48.1 Baron Control % 40.0 9
7.0 Quality Wins? 3.0
77.8 % of wins as Quality 37.5

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

I don’t know if it’s just price memory or perception or what but we’ve got a double whammy of misconception going on here. Cloud 9 have not lived up to expectations whatsoever. This has been echoed in interviews by the players that don’t seem to confident in their overall level at the moment. Golden Guardians have gone from a motley “just exceeding super low expectations” type of team to a legitimately average LCS team.

Full stop, my model has these two teams graded directly next to each other.

Now, I do expect Cloud 9 to improve, there are just too many strong veterans on this team BUT the fact of the matter is that they simply don’t deserve to be this large a favorite in this spot and it’s impossible to me to justify that. Take the dogs.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Golden Guardians +216 (1 unit)

Prop: Golden Guardians first herald @ -128 (1 unit)

 

 

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and you can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

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