Saturday, February 6th Recap

 

OMG vs BiliBili (Net: +1.785 units)

JDG vs Team WE (Net: -3.63 units)

FunPlus vs TOP Esports (Net: -1.23 units)

T1 vs Fredit Brion (Net: +1.0 units)

Afreeca vs KT Rolster (Net: no action)

Excel vs SK Gaming (Net: -0.5 units)

Schalke vs Misfits (Net: +2.0 units)

Vitality vs MAD Lions (Net: +1.0, + 1.0 live)

Rogue vs Astralis (Net: no action)

G2 Esports vs Fnatic (Net:+1.0 units)

TSM vs Cloud 9 (Net: -0.5 units)

Golden Guardians vs Immortals (Net: -1.22 units)

Dignitas vs Team Liquid (Net: -0.66 units)

Evil Geniuses vs FlyQuest (Net: +1.0 units)

CLG vs 100% (Net: +0.5 units)

 

I’ll be updating these recaps as I VOD review Saturday night/Sunday morning so check back later or in the morning if you want any thoughts on these games. Had a few things come up this week that interrupted my schedule.

LPL Net Total: -3.075 units

LCK Net Total: +1.0 units

LEC Net Total: +4.0 units

LCS Net Total: -0.88 units

 

Daily Net Total: +1.045 units

 


LOL Pro League (China)

Week 5 – Day 7

Last Day Before Break

 

The LPL will be going on break for Chinese New Year for two weeks. It will return on Monday, February 22nd. I’ll be talking more about how this affects momentum and historical takeaways from this break when we get closer to that date. I’ll be hosting a “Look-Ahead Show” for the LPL by then as well so stay tuned.

 

 

LNG Esports -110 (+1.5 maps @ -345, -1.5 @ +260)

vs

RareAtom -116 (-1.5 maps @ +249, +1.5 @ -357)

 

Total Maps Played: 2.5 (over -104 / under -122)

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -123 / under -105)

Kill Spread: -2.5 @ -115 / +2.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +100  / under -130)

Starting Lineups:

(Individual player model positional ranking in paranthesis, living number. Avg rating is avg of each players ratings compared to league average of 0)

 

 

This is a bit of a weird one with the line moving back and forth so a couple of the numbers are funky. LNG opened as -139 favorites and it’s swung all the way back in RareAtom’s favor.

My model sees this is as a very small value on LNG. They’ve performed above average in most categories despite not doing anything exceptionally. LNG prefer to play uptempo as evidenced by their focus on heralds over dragons and how they’ve drafted thus far but have shown a few different looks. RareAtom have much preferred to be that uptempo team but haven’t been quite as clean in terms of transitioning objectives to more advantages, preferring early focus on resources instead. RareAtom have had a superior very early game but LNG get the edge at 15 and 20.

RareAtom are trending upward with wins over Team WE and Rogue Warriors in their previous two matches while LNG dropped their last match to FPX, something we fault no one for, and won their match prior against eStar.

For all intents and purposes these two teams are very evenly matched more or less across the board in team metrics. RareAtom hold the edge in individual player ratings by a substantial amount but it’s still early in the season.

I’d lean toward RareAtom just based on the film I’ve seen, I think they’re finally hitting their stride with Leyan now back in the lineup for a couple of weeks and I anticipate that they’ll continue to trend upward this season while LNG I’m a little bit more skeptical on. That said, I’m not taking a side in this match. I don’t see enough value in either direction.

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 24.706

Time-Implied: 25.366

Underdog Win: 25.469

“Gelati” Total Projection: 24.866 kills

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 32.531minutes

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 50%

Volatility Rating: RA 0.17983 / LNG 0.15988 (higher is more volatile, these are both fairly low)

Odds-Weighted: 32.79 minutes

 

I do like the under a bit here as I think these games will likely be snowball’d hard by one team or the other but only enough for a half stake position.  Otherwise there’s really not a whole lot of value in this series anywhere.

 

My Picks:

 

Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 25.5 @ -105 (0.525 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 25.5 @ -105 (0.525 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 UNDER 25.5 @ -105 (0.525 units)

 


 

Victory Five -323 (-1.5 maps @ +114, +1.5 @ -1000)

vs

eStar Pro +239 (+1.5 maps @ -145, -1.5 @ +580)

 

Total Maps Played: 2.5 (over +115 / under -147)

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -112 / +7.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -132  / under +101)

Starting Lineups:

(Individual player model positional ranking in paranthesis, living number. Avg rating is avg of each players ratings compared to league average of 0)

 

eStar have dropped their past four series and have only taken a single game in that time frame against TT. They remain the ShiauC show. Can the support make enough plays early to get us ahead while simultaneously not overplaying? Then they can win. Otherwise they lose. That’s it, that’s the flowchart. Admittedly, eStar have faced a rough schedule including LNG, FPX, and Invictus but they dropped a game to OMG and dropped a series to TT. They also looked completely toothless in their other losses recently. They’re in poor form at the moment.

Victory Five have had a bit of a rough go of it as well recently. After a close 1-2 loss to Team WE to open the season, they won three in a row against RW, BLG, and LGD but they’ve lose their past three matches to EDG, TT, and a close 1-2 vs RNG. Victory Five remain the same kind of team. They’re an exceptional early game snowballing team but struggle when that doesn’t happen.

So we’ve got an exceptional early game team against a team where the support needs to make plays or they look lost. You can read both of these teams like a book. They’re playing open handed poker. The thing is, Victory Five have proven significantly more often that they can beat far superior teams even when they know what’s coming. This is a bad matchup for eStar. Victory Five are also running their full starting lineup.

My model shows a ton of value on the underdogs and suggests a moderate play on them but just based on what I’ve been watching recently I can’t do it. Victory Five have had a few uncharacteristically bad series and have been way underperforming my expectation for them while eStar are performing at about the level I’d expect from them based on their early season and pre-season expectations.  Victory Five have also been trying out different iterations of their roster in their past few matches. I’m going against the numbers and backing Victory Five here.

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 29.484

Time-Implied: 30.54

Underdog Win: 32.301

“Gelati” Total Projection: 29.541 kills

Time Total Projections:

Combined AVG Game Time: 32.962 minutes

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 57.353% (V5 50% / EST 64.71%)

Volatility Rating: V5 0.62796 / EST 0.18071 (League AVG: 0.18993)

Odds-Weighted: 31.66 minutes

 

Objective model flagged first blood for the underdogs, first tower and first herald for the favorites, and suggests a heavy play on the under 4.5 dragons. I’ll be taking V5 first towers and the under 4.5 dragons. I’m also taking the under in game time. Victory Five have an average game time of 28.94 minutes in wins and eStar have a 30.826 average game time in losses.

The totals look really high when you look at the averages for these teams but they’ve also had a few outlier games that are warping their numbers. Median projections are much more in line with the book price.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: Victory Five -323 (1.615 units)

Map Spread: Victory Five -1.5 maps @ +114 (0.25 units)

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 31:00 @ +101 (0.5 units)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 31:00 @ +101 (0.5 units)

Time Total: Map 3 UNDER 31:00 @ +101 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 1 V5 first tower @ -149 (0.745 units)

Prop: Map 2 V5 first tower @ -167 (0.835 units)

Prop: Map 3 V5 first tower @ -159 (0.795 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 4.5 dragons slain @ -125 (0.625 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 4.5 dragons slain @ -132 (0.66 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 4.5 dragons slain @ -123 (0.615 units)

 


 

 

Invictus Gaming -110 (+1.5 maps @ -333, -1.5 @ +271)

vs

RNG -116 (-1.5 maps @ +241, +1.5 @ -370)

 

Total Maps Played: 2.5 (over -103 / under -123)

Kill Total: 28.5 (over -114 / under -115)

Kill Spread: +0.5 @ -110 / -0.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +136 / under -179)

Starting Lineups:

(Individual player model positional ranking in paranthesis, living number. Avg rating is avg of each players ratings compared to league average of 0)

 

The model obviously loves RNG in this spot. They’ve got a ton of high end numbers across the board

So the challenge with this match is how much of a factor you think the top lane matchup will be. Xiaohu has fared pretty well in his first weeks in the role and against some good top laners but it’s taken some working around and trickery for it to happen sometimes. A lot of people don’t like TheShy for any number of reasons but I mentioned this on the podcast this week, along with my colleagues; If there is ONE THING TheShy is good at, it’s absolutely abusing severe mismatches. In fact, he might be the best individual player of all time at specifically taking advantage of an individual skill matchup in the top lane and utterly destroying someone.

This is a film/historical “gut” handicap but I just can’t help but think that this is one of those TheShy pop off matches. He may do some really dumb stuff sometimes but situations like this are exactly the reason you have a guy like him. He’s going to put Xiaohu in the dumpster.

As mentioned above, the question becomes how much of a factor is that? There are some pretty potent top lane counterpicks available right now but Xiaohu doesn’t necessarily just play top lane champions either. I personally think it’s going to be a substantial edge but we need to look at the rest of the map to see just how much we agree with the model expectation here.

Lucas looked excellent in his return to the big stage as he and wink put a hurting on one of stronger, more underrated bottom lanes in the league of Eric and Cold in the OMG match. Say what you want about the rest of the map but OMG’s bottom lane has been excellent this season and they took them to school from both sides of the Rell matchup. As good as Rookie is, and for how strong XUN has looked in his debut split, Wei and Cryin are maybe the best mid/jungle duo in the LPL right now and it’s tough to ignore that. If we give a slight edge to the IG bottom lane, something I didn’t think I’d be doing, a slight edge to RNG in the mid/jungle and the edge to TheShy it tells a pretty even story.

If I had to pick a side here, purely on “gut” it’s Invictus but I can’t justify a position without a better price.

Other Markets:

 

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 28.556

Time-Implied: 30.152

Underdog Win: 31.616

“Gelati” Total Projection: 28.998 kills

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 30.836 minutes

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 31.03% (RNG 46.67% / IG 15.385%)

Volatility Rating: RNG 0.18302 / IG 0.15665 (League AVG: 0.18993)

 

Objective model flagged RNG first blood and tower as well as Invictus first dragon which makes a lot of sense given how these teams have been playing this season. The strongest position by the numbers is Invictus first dragon so that’s where I’m going to head seeing as first blood could happen anywhere with Rookie and TheShy involved. It also makes a lot of sense given that I’d imagine RNG try to give Xiaohu some help on the top side of the map in this matchup as teams like to attack TheShy.

There’s also good value on the unders in this match. The biggest edge is gained by ticking up the total and taking an alt under of 29.5. Now, I could definitely see these two teams turning this into an absolute bar fight but at such high totals and based on what we’ve seen this season from both teams I could just as easily see a quick snowball one way or the other or even a split push approach in this game which also points to unders.

Time total unders are also flagged as one of the strongest edges available here but I’ll add in the caveat that with split push being a possibility and isolated matchups as something these teams, particularly IG, favor I’ll keep it to a modest position and not the heavyweight suggestion by the numbers.

 

My Picks:

 

Time Total: Map 1 UNDER 33:00 @ -179 (1.79 units)

Time Total: Map 2 UNDER 33:00 @ -185 (1.85 units)

Time Total: Map 3 UNDER 33:00 @ -169 (1.69 units)

Kill Total (alt): Map 1 UNDER 29.5 @ -139 (1.39 units)

Kill Total (alt): Map 2 UNDER 29.5 @ -139 (1.39 units)

Kill Total (alt): Map 3 UNDER 29.5 @ -145 (1.45 units)

Prop: Map 1 Invictus first dragon @ -118 (1.18 units)

Prop: Map 2 Invictus first dragon @ -118 (1.18 units)

Prop: Map 3 Invictus first dragon @ -119 (1.19 units)

 


 

 

LOL Champions Korea

Week 4 – Day 5

 

Hanwha Life Esports -500 (-1.5 maps @ -159, +1.5 @ -3333)

vs

Liiv Sandbox +388 (+1.5 maps @ +124, -1.5 @ +1012)

 

Total Maps Played: 2.5 (over +168 / under -217)

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -114 / under -115)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -120 / +7.5 @ -109

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -104 / under -125)

 

This Sandbox team just can’t catch a break. They’ve had a really rough time this season. A lot of losses that were just weird games, a lot of games that looked like wins that required weird things to lose. As the young kids these day say, “sometimes it just be like that.” Sandbox are significantly better than their record. Their individual players and overall economy suggest that this is a middle of the table team. Most of their numbers are just about league average with a few of their players actually scoring toward the high end. The only number that doesn’t match up with their performance is the win column. In traditional sports they’d be a team with a strong Pythagorean win expectation and show a ton of value given their price. I happen to think that’s what’s happening here. Sandbox aren’t the worst team in the LCK, they just have the worst record at the moment.

Hanwha Life are fresh off of a back-and-forth match win against the improved Afreeca Freecs. Prior to that they were whooped on by DAMWO but they had won the four matches prior to that. The thing with Hanwha Life is that they’re a little two-faced and this is something I’ve been preaching all season. When their weakest players are playing at a serviceable level they’re a very VERY good team. If they aren’t it’s just the “can Chovy hard carry?” show. That’s a good fallback plan but I question just how consistent Hanwha will be in any given series. I have them still on the outside looking in for “elite” consideration. I think they can get there but Vsta and the top laners have been just a little too hit or miss for me to trust yet.

Hanwha have dropped games in most of their series this year and while that isn’t truly predictive in any way, it does line up with the two-faced / inconsistent stylings of this team. Given those issues and Sandbox being undervalued I absolutely think Sandbox are worth a play here. This price is just disrespectful.

 

Other Markets:

As I’ve mentioned the past few days, I’ll be holding off on derivative markets unless something strikes me as obvious until I hit my data expectations.

Hanwha have been extremely bloody overall this season but their totals align roughly with where they’ve been at. I’d lean to the over here assuming this gets scrappy but I’m passing for now.

 

My Picks:

 

Map Spread: Sandbox +1.5 maps @ +124 (1 units)

Moneyline: Sandbox +388 (0.5 units)

Map Spread: Sandbox -1.5 maps @ +1012 (0.25 units)

 


 

DAMWON Kia Gaming -625 (-1.5 maps @ -169)

vs

DRX +413 (+1.5 maps @ +132, -1.5 @ +1300)

 

Total Maps Played: 2.5 (over +180 / under -238)

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -116 / under -112)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -112 / +8.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 7.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -114 / under -114)

 

I sound like a broken record by now about DRX. I’ll keep it short and say that while this team has vastly overperformed expectations, their results are still incredibly fraudulent. They’ve caught a lot of teams on their worst days, teams playing substitutes, and they’ve seemingly flipped heads on every coin flip situation this season. Their underlying metrics suggest a significantly worse team. Their record is absolutely not indicative of the quality of play we’re seeing. Sometime you get a team that defies all the evidence but I’ll bet against it every single time. This team should be way below .500 and they currently sit in 4th place.

DAMWON have had a few rocky sets but still have some of the most dominant underlying statistics anywhere in the world. Unless we see them start subs in this match, which hasn’t happened in years, I just don’t see DAMWON not winning this match. Keep an eye on starters announcement via social media and hedge out if you see subs because it probably means DRX are going to dodge yet another bullet.

DAMWON smash.

Other Markets:

 

I want DAMWON every which way I can get them in this series but most of these are priced accordingly so I’m just going to stick to my heavy position on the side.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: DAMWON -625 (6.25 units)

Map Spread: DAMWON -1.5 maps @ -169 (1.69 units)

 


LOL Championship Series (LCS)

Week 1 – Day 3

 

We had some absolutely terrible games of League of Legends in the LCS yesterday. It’s obviously early in the season but not a good look for a league that I thought would improve overall this season. It’d be really nice if these teams learned how to close a game… Then again, I guess I can’t complain I was the beneficiary of one of these goofy games (had 100T in that match).

FlyQuest +416 vs Team Liquid -667

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -132 / under +101)

Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -116 / -8.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -120 / under -109)

 

Liquid look like a bunch of tryhards. In LOL vernacular that’s got a negative connotation but for a professional team, and especially as a bettor you absolutely love teams that are predictable because you can attack from both sides the more “known” the quantity is.

FlyQuest are still a bit of an unknown. Their drafts so far have been a little conflicted in terms of what they want to be doing but this team is very talented. I liked that they fought back in their game against EG yesterday even after it looked a little out of reach. EG have been a team that are a bit ahead of the curve in that they know exactly who they are already and also have talented players. I could see EG being a strong starter that potentially flames out or is just too linear for their own good. That’s not the kind of opponent you want to face early in the season.

Liquid should win this match but 8.5 is a pretty big spread to cover with how they like to play. FlyQuest haven’t shown a that they’re a “throw ourselves at the enemy” team yet either so I like a quiet Liquid win 12-4 or 14-6 kind of thing. I like the under at plus money as well but think the spread is probably a better angle to attack this market from.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: FlyQuest +8.5 kills @ -116 (1.16 units)

 


Evil Geniuses -370 vs Golden Guardians +270

Kill Total: 23.5 (over +101 / under -132)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -105 / +7.5 @ -123

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 7.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +102 / under -133)

I love this new look Evil Geniuses lineup but they’re going to have some struggles with inconsistency with the aggression level they’ve chosen to play with.  Golden Guardians aren’t all that different. This is going to be an aggressive team that’s going to improve a lot with each passing match as Niles and Iconic get more familiar with the professional game.

This is another underdog spot. I can’t trust such a high risk favorite this early in the season in a best-of-one. We’ve seen how much teams have struggled to close out games.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Golden Guardians +7.5 kills @ -123 (1.23 units)

Moneyline: Golden Guardians +270 (0.5 units)

Time Total: OVER 32:00 @ +102 (1 unit)

 


Cloud 9 -556 vs Immortals +373

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -114 / under -115)

Kill Spread: -9.5 @ -102 / +9.5 @ -127

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 6.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over +115 / under -149)

I sound like a broken record but I’ll be taking a lot of underdog spreads this early on. Obviously the game got away from Immortals yesterday after it looked like they had stabilized. Immortals have looked great in their first two games, that bungle not withstanding. Cloud 9 have looked dominant as well but we’ve already seen that this team have some inconsistencies in the Lock-In. Cloud 9 are going to look like Victory Five a bit at times, super dominant in their wins, and other times people will question weird drafts or when they don’t pull out to massive leads in games. I think Immortals are live here.

Another dog and spread would be the play but I actually prefer Immortals OVER their low team total and the moneyline instead of a kill spread here. I like the OVER 31:00 at plus money as well.

My Picks:

Kill Total (team): Immortals OVER 6.5 kills @ -133 (1.33 units)

Moneyline: Immortals +373 (0.5 units)

Time Total: OVER 31:00 @ +115 (1 unit)

 


Counter Logic Gaming +178 vs Team Solo Mid -238

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: +6.5 @ -120 / -6.5 @ -109

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -133 / under +102)

Tales of TSM’s demise are maybe just a tiny bit of an overreaction two games into the season. They had a massive lead on day one against FlyQuest before a weird throw and their second match yesterday was against Cloud 9. I said it before the season started, but this TSM lineup is going to need some time to build chemistry together. They’re going to be a “slow grower.” CLG have looked surprisingly good even without Broxah here yet but they’ve also lost to Dignitas and somehow managed to lose that absolute clown fiesta of a game yesterday against 100 Thieves.

For what we’ve seen of TSM so far it feels absolutely dreadful to even consider this number but I’m absolutely not buying CLG at all. This is a dog or avoid position. I’m just going to stay away. If I had to make a wager it’d be on the OVER 24.5 kills @ -119 but I’ll be passing.

My Picks:

No wagers

 


100 Thieves -400 vs Dignitas +289

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -120 / under -109)

Kill Spread: -7.5 @ -108 / +7.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 7.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -105 / under -123)

100 Thieves are a bit scary aren’t they? They’ve stalled out a few times here and at the Lock-In tournament but they still look like a solid tempo team and what I like most is that even when they seem to have stalled out in games, they somehow manage to claw it back and win later in the game with inferior scaling compositions. It isn’t always pretty but they’ve made it work which is a cool thing to see this early in the season.

Dignitas are going to be a team that look decent for now and then fall off unless we see Soligo and FakeGod outperform their expected career performance level. I’m not banking on it. 100 Thieves are probably a little better than we’ve seen so far and more like what we saw in the Lock-In tournament.

I like 100 Thieves to cover the spread here but more than that I like the UNDER 32:00. Even though they have had a few weird games, 100 Thieves are still a tempo team at heart and that’s going to be how they win most of their games, for the time being anyway.

My Picks:

Time Total: UNDER 32:00 @ -123 (1.23 units)

Kill Spread: 100 Thieves -7.5 kills @ -108 (0.54 units)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

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