Saturday, February 27th Recap

 

As usual on the weekends, recaps will be done after the fact (only so many hours in the day here). Check back tomorrow. I’ll also be doing some recapping as we go in some of the match writeups.

LGD Gaming vs Rogue Warriors (Net: +3.48 units)

eStar vs TOP Esports (Net: +3.0 units)

Royal Never Give Up vs FunPlus Phoenix (Net: -0.7 units)

DRX vs Hanwha Life Esports (Net: +3.795 units)

T1 vs DAMWON Gaming (Net: +2.51 units)

 

Excel Esports vs SK Gaming (Net: -0.22 units)

Schalke 04 vs Misfits (Net: -0.725 units)

Team Vitality vs MAD Lions (Net: +0.5 units)

Rogue vs Astralis (Net: +1.0 units)

G2 Esports vs Fnatic (Net: +2.0 units)

 

Cloud 9 vs Evil Geniuses (Net: +1.45 units)

CLG vs TSM (Net: -1.64 units)

Dignitas vs 100 Thieves (Net: no action)

Golden Guardians vs Immortals (Net: +1.555 units)

Liquid vs FlyQuest (Net: +1.0 units)

 

 

LPL Net Total: +5.78 units

LCK Net Total: +6.305 units

LEC Net Total: +2.56 units

LCS Net Total: +2.37 units

 

Daily Net Total: +17.015 units (+30.0% ROI)

 

 


LOL Pro League (China)

Week 6 – Day 7

Victory Five -122 (-1.5 maps @ +235, +1.5 @ -400)

vs

LNG Esports +102 (+1.5 maps @ -323, -1.5 @ +280)

 

Map ML Price: V5 -122 / LNG -104

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over -105 / under -122)

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: +1.5 @ -115 / -1.5 @ -114 (or -2.5 @ +101 / +2.5 @ -132)

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +145 / under -192)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

V5 series moneyline @ -122 (VERY STRONG)

V5 -1.5 maps @ +235 (strong)

V5 map moneyline @ -122 (strong)

 

LNG have had a brutal schedule recently facing FunPlus, RareAtom, and TOP in their last three while V5 have been able to coast a bit with eStar and OMG and TT in their past four with their only challenge being EDG. The model does factor in trending performance to a degree which is why V5’s edge is as big as it’s showing here.

With that in mind, these two teams are fairly similar on the surface. They have similar economies, similar kill-agnostic economies, similar first %’s. V5 have a significantly better win-adjusted economy and a higher percentage of quality wins as well as significant advantages in the early game economy metrics (10/15/20, etc). They also have a massive advantage in post-20 minute gold per minute. In short, V5 win faster and harder which aligns with their identity and LNG are sort of a balanced team that sometimes does scaling and sometimes tries to play uptempo.

This is a tricky spot to handicap because of the recent schedules being drastically different in strength but Victory Five have looked much better on film to me and they’re much more polished at the one thing they’re good at. Even very strong teams struggle to knock them off of their game plan sometimes, even when they know exactly what’s coming. Victory Five have some lowlight losses but overall are a very strong team that I think is underrated . They’re probably better than their numbers too.

I don’t like this play nearly as much as the model but I do like Victory Five here.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 25.047

Time-Implied: 25.344

Underdog Win: 25.202

“Gelati” Total Projection: 24.93 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total:  42.75% (V5 52.17% / LNG 33.33%)

Volatility Rating: V5 0.28534 / LNG 0.31764 (League Avg: 0.3042)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

LNG team total UNDER 12.5 kills @ -104 (strong)

V5 team total OVER 12.5 kills @ -116 (small)

UNDER 25.5 kills @ -120 (small)

(alt) UNDER 24.5 @ -102 (small)

 

I’m already going to be on the V5 sides so the LNG team total doesn’t interest me nearly as much since it’s map-to-map (unless I wanted to double dip). I’m disagreeing with my model a bit here. I like the under 25.5 kills bit but the under 12.5 towers, and under 4.5 drakes much more. In short, I like the under time total just not the under time total price (more on that below). In lieu of these I’ll be playing those other markets (see below).

 

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 30.709 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted:  30.67 / 30.7

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 44.565% (V5 39.13% / LNG 50%)

Volatility Rating: V5 0.1416 / LNG 0.14019 (League Avg: 0.15458)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 33:00 @ +145 (small)

 

The model likes this purely as a price play. I like V5 a lot in this series so the weighted projections are more in line with where I think this time total ends up. That said, these implied odds aren’t at a price I particularly like so I’m going to look to alternative markets to play the under without paying the juice. (see below)

 

 

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

LNG first tower @ -115 (strong)*

V5 first tower @ -115 (strong)*

V5 first herald @ -115 (moderate)

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -189 (moderate)

UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -116 (moderate)

LNG first herald @ -115 (light)

OVER 1.5 barons @ +148 (miniscule)

 

The under 4.5 dragons and under 12.5 towers are my favorite plays in this match especially because I think Victory Five are the right side but even if you like LNG here, these are solid plays. Victory Five win AND lose very quickly. 29.34 average game time, 28.58 in wins, 30.17 in losses. LNG come in under 33 in all three as well but their fastest time is 30.95 in wins. All points to time total unders but we’re paying for an implied 65%. I’d rather “effectively” take the under with the under 4.5 drakes and under 12.5 towers. The under 12.5 towers isn’t as closely correlated to the time total but fits enough AND has the probability backup to be worth a play here as well. These should be lopsided games one way or the other, it’s just how these two have played this season.

V5 first tower nad first herald have been great bets this season but since I’ve already got exposure to their side and LNG are decent in these categories as well I’ll just be passing in favor of the moneyline and other props.

 

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: Victory Five -122 (1.22 units)

Map Spread: Victory Five -1.5 maps @ +235 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -189 (1.89 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -182 (1.82 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -172 (1.72 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -116 (1.16 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -137 (1.37 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -122 (1.22 units)

 


 

RareAtom -714 (-1.5 maps @ -179, +1.5 @ -2000)

vs

OMG +496 (+1.5 maps @ +140, -1.5 @ +811)

 

Map ML Price: RA -435 / OMG +306

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +178 / -233)

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -116 / under -112)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -115 / +8.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -103 / under -127)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OMG +1.5 maps @ +140 (strong)

OVER 2.5 maps @ +178 (moderate)

OMG map moneyline @ +306 (moderate)

OMG series moneyline @ +496 (moderate)

 

RareAtom have had a relatively easy schedule in their matches before and after the break. That’s sometimes the best medicine to shake rust off. They had TT (went to three), LNG, WE, and Rogue Warriors. WE is the only real challenge in that group. They’ve only dropped a single game in those four matches and that was in a weird game one that TT jumped out to a big tempo advantage in (something they’ve been doing to a lot of teams better than they are).

OMG picked up a win against BLG right before the holiday break but it was their only series win of the season. This team is trying their hardest. They’re not bad in terms of understanding, they’re actually a fairly smart team, they’re just very limited by their individual abilities and depth of champion pool. If you can take this team off of the global compositions that they like to play they just don’t have the chops to execute other stuff. OMG are the guy on the dance floor “doing the dice thing,” because it’s all that they’ve got and other teams have figured this out. Wuming has also been the worst mid in the league in my opinion, the individual model agrees for the most part.

The economy/objective model likes OMG here mostly because of the price. You’re paying a premium for RareAtom but much like this morning with TOP I’m going to go against the grain here and back RareAtom. This is a playoff caliber team and the one strong point on the map for OMG, the bottom lane, has a surprisingly tough matchup here against iBoy and Hang.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 23.081

Time-Implied: 24.2

Underdog Win: 31.491

“Gelati” Total Projection: 23.983 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total:  47.52% (RA 52.94% / OMG 42.11%)

Volatility Rating: RA 0.30774 / OMG 0.36764 (League Avg: 0.3042)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

RareAtom team total UNDER 16.5 kills @ -120 (very strong)

OMG team total UNDER 8.5 kills @ -115 (strong)

 

I think this is going to be fairly lopsided but your average RareAtom win looks something like 15-6. They’re only averaging a combined 23.14 kills per game. OMG are slightly higher at 24.666 and your average OMG loss looks like 6-17. The model doesn’t like this quite as much because of the weight it puts on frequency but I like the under in this contest quite a bit. OMG have been extremely bloody in their few wins but I do think that’s likely an outlier as well. Don’t let it scare you off this. This should probably be a 23.5 total not a cheap 24.5 under.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time:31.691 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted:  31.58 / 31.83

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 70.12% (RA 82.35% / OMG 57.89%)

Volatility Rating: RA 0.15416 / OMG 0.15981 (League Avg: 0.15458)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 31:00 @ -103 (VERY strong)

 

RareAtom have found themselves in some bizarre games and they have a storied history of struggling to close out games in which they have huge leads, it was the main thing that kept them from being a playoff team in Summer.  The thing with 31:00 minutes is that it’s right at about that cusp of where teams usually end games. On average about 47% of games end up going over the 31:00 mark compared to about 57.6% going over 30:00. Think of it like a “key number” in the NFL for a total (41, 43, 44, etc). If you think RareAtom fumble this yet again the over looks like a decent play but you have to think it happens in both games. OMG have also been losing in an average of 29.196 minutes with RA averaging 32.33 minutes in wins. I don’t like this nearly as much as the model so I’ll pass and look to alternate markets.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OMG first dragon @ +121 (VERY VERY strong)

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -213 (VERY strong)

OVER 1.5 barons @ +216 (strong)

OVER 4.5 dragons @ -101 (moderate)

OMG first blood @ +116 (small)

 

I’m disagreeing strongly with the model today it seems. I like the under 12.5 towers and under 4.5 dragons again in this match as I think it’ll be lopsided and it’s an alternate way to play the under.

The OMG first dragon is a solid bet but given RareAtom are hitting at a 58.8% rate on that I don’t like it quite as much as the model (although it’s still worth a play).

 

 

 

My Picks:

 

Map Spread: RareAtom -1.5 maps @ -179 (1.79 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 24.5 @ -112 (1.12 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 24.5 @ -111 (1.11 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 UNDER 25.5 @ -112 (1.12 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -213 (2.13 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -213 (2.13 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -204 (2.04 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -135 (1.35 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -123 (1.23 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -108 (1.08 units)

Prop: Map 1 OMG first dragon @ +121 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 OMG first dragon @ +121 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 3 OMG first dragon @ +126 (1 unit)

 


 

Suning Gaming +150 (+1.5 maps @ -227, -1.5 @ +392)

vs

Invictus Gaming -189 (-1.5 maps @ +173, +1.5 @ -588)

 

Map ML Price: SN +130 / IG -167

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over -102 / under -125)

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -110 / under -119)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -137 / -5.5 @ +105

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +120 / under -156)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Invictus series moneyline @ -189 (moderate)

Invictus -1.5 maps @ +173 (moderate)

Invictus map monelyine @ -167 (small)

 

Invictus are coming off of a 2-0 against league leader EDG on Friday where Puff rejoined the lineup for the first time since Summer. Suning haven’t been doing nearly as well with their only wins of the season coming against LGD and OMG recently. Their last win against a good team was when they took game two from RNG (could maybe argue they should have had game three of that series too). They opened the season with a 2-0 of TOP and have gone downhill from there.

So what’s going on with Suning? This team was just in the World Championship grand finals how can they be this bad?

Well, we’ve discussed quite a bit that they caught a little bit of lightning in a bottle for that tournament where the metagame was quite literally about as perfect as it could get for a team and they were playing at their peak. They were underrated going into the tournament but are being overrated now. Suning have good players but they’re not playing like a good team is what this boils down to and their identity has been figured out quite a bit. For whatever reason they struggle to leverage advantages that they get with the Angel+SofM duo. Other teams know this and just abuse the side lanes knowing they won’t face much resistance.

Coincidentally their foes across the rift also tend to have a little of the “good players, bad team” syndrome at times but they looked excellent against EDG on Friday so maybe they figured something out over the break.

I like Invictus here. To me, they are basically just a better version of Suning and the way you beat Invictus is exactly what Suning doesn’t do which is to decisively force your advantages as a full group across the map. You could make the argument the opposite way I suppose but if we’ve got two teams that are going to be playing with this unorthodox sideline style then I’d rather have Invictus every time. I know these teams are both hot and cold but Invictus tend to be significantly better as the season goes on and if they look anything like they did against EDG then this should be one way traffic.

 

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 28.346

Time-Implied: 26.728

Underdog Win: 27.612

“Gelati” Total Projection: 27.235 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total:  48.09% (IG 55% / SN 41.18%)

Volatility Rating: IG 0.32875 / SN 0.35068 (League Avg: 0.3042)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Invictus team total OVER 14.5 kills @ -109 (small)

Suning team total OVER 12.5 kills @ -104 (small)

(alt) UNDER 24.5 kills @ +118 (small)

 

These two teams have a propensity to split push and are somewhat volatile game-to-game in regards to kill total. Anything could happen in these but I doubt we see anything near this total it’ll probably go way over and way under. If you feel strongly that Invictus win this they’re scoring an average of 19.53 kills per win and have gone over their 14.5 total in all but two of their 12 game wins this season. I do like IG here so I’ll be double dipping on the team total. Suning have a tendency to get into really bizarre games even when they end up winning them and a big enough percentage of their wins are absolute clown fiestas that I could see IG covering this total in a loss as well.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 31.924 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 31.93 / 32.07

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total:  44.85% (IG 25% / SN 64.71%)

Volatility Rating: IG 0.16208 / SN 0.1813 (League Avg: 0.15458)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

The under is probably the look here if you feel confidently that Invictus win. Otherwise pass.  I happen to be confident in IG but I’m going to look for other markets to attack this concept.

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 12.5 towers (VERY VERY strong)

Invictus first dragon @ -149 (VERY strong)

OVER 1.5 barons @ +157 (moderate)

OVER 4.5 dragons @ -139 (small)

 

Surprise, surprise, under 12.5 towers. I do like the IG first dragon as well.

 

 

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: Invictus -189 (1.89 units)

Map Spread: Invictus -1.5 maps @ +173 (0.5 units)

Kill Total (team): Map 1 Invictus OVER 14.5 kills @ -109 (0.545 units)

Kill Total (team): Map 2 Invictus OVER 14.5 kills @ -123 (0.615 units)

Kill Total (team): Map 3 Invictus OVER 14.5 kills @ -118 (0.59 units)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -169 (1.69 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -164 (1.64 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -156 (1.56 units)

Prop: Map 1 Invictus first dragon @ -149 (0.745 units)

Prop: Map 2 Invictus first dragon @ -149 (0.745 units)

Prop: Map 3 Invictus first dragon @ -149 (0.745 units)

 

 


 

LOL Champions Korea (LCK)

Week 6 – Day 4

 

Gen.G -556 (-1.5 maps @ -143, +1.5 @ -2500)

vs

Afreeca Freecs +405 (+1.5 maps @ +112, -1.5 @ +883)

 

Map ML Price: Gen.G -370 / Afreeca +265

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over +152 / under -196)

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -127 / under -103)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -128 / +6.5 @ -102

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 7.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -127 / -103)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

I made this number right on the money with the market with this one (a few cents off -554 / +402). There’s a reasonable case to back Afreeca here with the potential sub risk for Gen.G but it’d be weird for them to sub here instead of against the weaker foes they’ve been facing. Afreeca are statistically exceeding their win total but there’s a reason for that. Until their last series they struggled mightily to close leads out. If you think they’ve finally “solved the puzzle” and you’re more bullish than I am than I could see backing them at this number. They’re a good team with good players. The thing is, Gen.G rarely spot anybody leads. In fact they’re the best early game team in the LCK by a good margin (T1 is next and nearly a full standard deviation below Gen.G). I’m just going to pass on a side here.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 27.091

Time-Implied: 25.973

Underdog Win: 23.949

“Gelati” Total Projection: 25.819 kills 

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 56.58% (GEG 50% / AF 63.16%)

Volatility Rating: GEG 0.29879 / AF 0.30025 (League Avg: 0.3263)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Afreeca team total OVER 7.5 kills @ -127 (strong)

(alt) OVER 23.5 kills @ -102 (small)

OVER 22.5 kills @ -127 (miniscule)

 

If you think this goes over the time total then I could see making a play on the total over here or Afreeca team total over but I think this market is close enough that I’m just going to pass. I’ll hit the Afreeca team total over if the Gen.G subs are announced.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 32.771 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 32.53 / 32.54

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 65.46% (GEG 62.5% / AF 68.42%)

Volatility Rating: GEG 0.1723 / AF 0.16351 (League Avg: 0.15017)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 32:00 @ -127 (strong)

 

The model really likes this over. My gut said “that’s odd” but the more I thought about it it made some amount of sense. Afreeca consistently steamroll early games and then throw at some point. If you think that’s going to happen in this series I could see liking this but I’d rather attack that game script in other markets. Gen.G could just as easily stomp this match. Maybe I like the over if the subs play.

 

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Afreeca first blood @ +116 (VERY VERY strong)*

Afreeca first herald @ +145 (VERY VERY strong)

Gen.G first blood @ -149 (VERY VERY strong)*

Afreeca first tower @ +139 (strong)

UNDER 11.5 towers @ +111 (moderate-strong)

Afreeca first dragon @ +111 (moderate)

UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -111 (small)

 

Jeez lots of options here but it’s depenedent on if you think Afreeca are competitive in this match or not. If you think Gen.G just steamroll then I think you’ll want to maybe play under 11.5 towers and Afreeca first dragon and under 4.5 dragons, if you think it’s competitive take all the Afreeca props.

Both teams are strong first blood teams so I’ll pass there. I do like Afreeca first herald just because the price is really nice so I’ll play that one. Collect a nice little profit if even one hits in a two game sweep. I’ll do a half stake on the under 11.5 towers as well. These teams are averaging 41.67% and 47.37% of games OVER 11.5 towers and we’re getting a plus number on something that happens roughly 55.5% of the time between the two of them. Nice little edge.

 

My Picks:

 

 

Regardless of who plays:

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 11.5 towers @ +111 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 11.5 towers @ +110 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 11.5 towers @ +111 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 1 Afreeca first herald @ +145 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 Afreeca first herald @ +110 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 3 Afreeca first herald @ +145 (1 unit)

 

 

If Gen.G runs Karis (or Karis+Flawless and/or Burdol):

Afreeca team total OVER on all three maps (to win 1u each)

Time Total OVER 32:00 @ -127 on all three maps (to win 1u each)

 


Liiv Sandbox +131 (+1.5 maps @ -244, -1.5 @ +359)

vs

Nongshim RedForce -159 (-1.5 maps @ +185, +1.5 @ -526)

 

Map ML Price: LSB +119 / NS -152

Total Maps Played: 2.5 maps (over -106 / under -119)

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -120 / -4.5 @ -109

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -120 / under -109)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Sandbox Series Moneyline @ +131 (RIDICULOUSLY strong)

Sandbox Map Moneyline @ +119 (VERY VERY strong)

UNDER 2.5 maps @ -119 (small)

 

So for those that aren’t aware from reading, Sandbox perform ridiculously well in the model and it likes them quite a bit. In fact, it has them as the #5 team in the LCK despite their record. What does this tell us? Well, essentially Sandbox consistently find ways to throw games and that lines up with what I’ve been watching on the rift all season… This team is rage inducing. Their players are so good and they just can’t seem to piece it all together. I tend to believe in these kinds of teams eventually righting the ship but sometimes they really test you. Still, this is a team that pushed DAMWON to a 44 minute game and swept Hanwha 2-0. They’re more than capable of beating anybody on any given day. If you don’t believe in continuing to back teams like this then I understand. Ideally you need to find a happy medium.

Nongshim have just been terrible. I really don’t know what else to say. They’ve lost 10 of their last 12 and along with Brion sit nearly a full standard deviation worse in the objective/economy model than the middle table teams like KT, DRX, Afreeca, and Sandbox.

I know they’re frustrating as all hell but Sandbox is the side here without question. If Croco starts I like this even more. I personally got this earlier in the week at +161 but I’d honestly play this well into Sandbox being favorites. They’re the right side here 100%. I’ll use current numbers for public record keeping.

 

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 28.442

Time-Implied: 26.423

Underdog Win: 31.004

“Gelati” Total Projection: 27.458 kills 

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 41.41% (NS 27.27% / LSB 55.55% )

Volatility Rating: NS 0.36638 / LSB 0.30259 (League Avg: 0.3263)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Nongshim team total UNDER 13.5 kills @ -114 (VERY strong)

Sandbox team total OVER 10.5 kills @ -119 (VERY strong)

UNDER 25.5 kills @ -120 (moderate)

(alt) UNDER 24.5 kills @ -105 (moderate-light)

 

I’m going to have plenty of positions here. I like the under on Nongshim quite a bit and the over on Sandbox as well but I’ll have a fairly heavy side on Sandbox so I’ll use different markets to attack this.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 32.483 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 31.71 / 31.71

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 65.99% (NS 72.73% / LSB 59.26%)

Volatility Rating: NS 0.17443 / LSB 0.09461 (League Avg: 0.15017 )

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 33:00 @ -120 (strong)

 

This is a weird one. Both of these teams win extremely fast but lose very slowly. Still, the vast majority of their games have gone over the 33 minute mark.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Sandbox first herald @ -114 (VERY strong)

Sandbox first dragon @ -108 (strong)*

Nongshim first dragon @ -123 (moderate-light)

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -200 (very light)

Sandbox first tower @ -120 (miniscule)

 

Sandbox first herald is one of my favorite plays on the entire slate. 75% vs 37.5% and we’re getting “esports even money” at -114 on it? Hell yes. Nongshim have been a decent first dragon team to match Sandbox’s first dragon total as well so we’ll just stick to the herald.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: Sandbox +131 (2 units)

Map Spread: Sandbox -1.5 maps @ +359 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 Sandbox first herald @ -114 (1.14 units)

Prop: Map 2 Sandbox first herald @ +106 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 3 Sandbox first herald @ -114 (1.14 units)

Time Total: Map 1 OVER 33:00 @ -120 (0.6 units)

Time Total: Map 2 OVER 33:00 @ -120 (0.6 units)

Time Total: Map 3 OVER 33:00 @ -120 (0.6 units)

 


 

LOL Championship Series (LCS)

Week 4 – Day 3

 

 

Team Solo Mid (TSM) -263 vs FlyQuest +200

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -105 / under -123)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -118 / +6.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -103 / under -127)

 

It took three barons to beat CLG’s ocean soul yesterday for TSM but they managed to do it. Tragic for CLG but more on that later. I could talk about how good it is that they made this work with the team comp that they did but it’s equally fair, if not more important to point out that they maybe shouldn’t have been in this situation in the first place if they were really that good. Still, good teams get into weird games sometimes and you’ve got to figure things out on the fly. They did. Speaking of fly…

FlyQuest got ground to a pulp by Liquid’s laning phase and couldn’t really recover from it. I’m not entirely sure what to make of this team but the more I watch them the more feeble they look on a game-to-game basis. If Josedeodo isn’t getting things started early they sort of just roll over and die. Since defeating TSM on day one of the season, FlyQuest have only beaten Golden Guardians and a non-full roster CLG. All but three of those have been sub 31 minute losses (ok there’s one 31:03 but close enough).

I was optimistic about this FlyQuest team figuring d they might have a rough start getting acclimated with the young kids but I think this team just isn’t very good. They don’t put up much of a fight against the good teams (other than the EG game). I like what they’re doing in the draft in most games too so it’s not even like they’re consistently beating themselves before the game starts. They’re just not good.

TSM roll here. They’re looking much cleaner (for the most part) and when they get leads they’re pretty clinical about closing the game out.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: TSM -6.5 kills @ -118 (1.18 units)

Prop: Total Towers UNDER 12.5 @ -256 (1.28 units)

 


Golden Guardians +272 vs Evil Geniuses -385

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -106 / under -122)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -106 / -7.5 @ -122

Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -123 / under -105)

I’ve discussed it a few times on the podcast and here in my writeups but Evil Geniuses are not to be trusted as big favorites. They’re a very volatile team and look to be one of those teams that beats themselves often enough against weaker competition that you just want to avoid them… that said, I’m making an exception for Golden Guardians.

The Guardians did look better against Immortals who… more on them next. They had a good start to the game but couldn’t accelerate things fast enough to abuse Seraphine’s power in the mid game even with that lead. I’m still fading Golden Guardians. They had a very advantageous game state for them yesterday and still couldn’t close the game out against a fairly unimpressive Immortals team.

I feel like a sucker taking all these favorite kill spreads but I think that’s the play here.

The game time over isn’t a bad look either. Evil Geniuses do have some fast wins but have also fumbled some early leads before having to figure it out and close a game out. Golden Guardians are absolutely toothless early so a lot of teams have just been drafting scaling and waiting for them to screw up. EG could speed run this but I wouldn’t rule out them taking their time as that seems to be the approach most teams have been taking.  I won’t be taking that position but I really like the Evil Geniuses team total over. Let’s keep double dipping against Golden Guardians.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Evil Geniuses -7.5 kills @ -122 (1.22 units)

Kill Total (team): Evil Geniuses OVER 15.5 kills @ -114 (1.14 units)

 


 

Immortals +341 vs Team Liquid -500

 

Kill Total: 22.5 (over -118 / under -111)

Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -118 / -8.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 6.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over +121 / under -159)

I don’t usually look too much into interviews and such because the players are often just “being professional” regarding a lot of topics but Santorin had some interesting things to say regarding Liquid’s environment and approach right now. He mentioned trying to play optimal with uptempo looks and being more proactive instead of just accepting that they can beat bad teams by letting them screw up. He also mentioned that they’re trying to ramp up to playoffs instead of just trying to win every regular season game. On one hand this kind of interview can trigger “take big dogs against them” vibes but I love that Liquid understand that they can’t just be content with what they do well and expect to perform internationally or against the other top of the table teams.

Immortals played a weird one against Golden Guardians yesterday. On one hand you could criticize a team for giving up a tempo advantage to GGS like they did but it looked to me like they had the same approach I’d have to beating GGS if it was a borderline must win game which is to just scale up and let them screw up. Long term I don’t like it as much but these teams at the middle and bottom of the table need the wins when they can get them so I don’t blame them.

What’s weird about Immortals is that they look pretty good in some games and completely unimpressive in others which makes them a bit tricky to handicap. Liquid have been a terrible against the spread team this season covering the kill spread in just one of their six wins. Part of the reason for that is that they’re content to just grind out advantages without the flashy scorelines. Given the low total and that Immortals have also been pretty good against the kill spread this season with much lower average spreads than this, I’m going to take the +8.5.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Immortals +8.5 kills @ -118 (1.18 units)

 


100 Thieves +138 vs Cloud 9 -179

 

Kill Total: 27.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: +5.5 @ -112 / -5.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over +143 / under -189)

100 Thieves have been a weird team this season. They very obviously want to be the uptempo, early game centric team but they’ve stalled out in a little less than half of their games. They’ve also managed to win a bunch of those games. On one hand you could point to this as a red flag. Why are they struggling to close games out so consistently? On the other hand, the fact that they’re managing to figure out a way to win when they’re outscaled in a lot of situations is impressive in its own right. So what is this team? I think it’s probably somewhere in the middle. Maybe they aren’t quite as dominant an early game squad as I initially thought and we’re working with a RareAtom or BiliBili-esque situation where they are good at it and just struggle to close. Maybe it’s the league figuring them out a little bit? Maybe it’s everyone else improving. I think it’s likely a lot of these factors all contributing but what it boils down to is that I’m not entirely sure this team is as good as I had initially thought. I know Liquid haven’t looked particularly good but 100 Thieves look to be the clear #4 in the league to me behind TSM, Cloud 9, and Liquid. I think there’s equal cause for both concern and optimism but they’re currently somewhere in the middle in that “best of the rest” zone.

Cloud 9 have been rolling. Blaber is playing like the best player in the entire league and while I’m still a bit concerned with how the top lane is going it doesn’t seem to be an issue with the adjustments they make and pressure they’re creating elsewhere on the map. If Fudge continues to improve this team is going to be difficult to stop unless you’ve got a premium mid+jungle duo to deal with Blaber and Perkz.

100 Thieves picked up first blood and the first two dragons and still ended up down 4000 gold at the 13 minute mark in the last outing. I don’t know if this will be quite that lopsided but this line has only increased by 31 cents from that previous one which was -148 / +121. I think this is a bargain price for Cloud 9.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Cloud 9 -179 (1.79 units)

Kill Spread (alt): Cloud 9 -7.5 kills @ +132 (0.5 units)

 

 


Dignitas -213 vs Counter Logic Gaming (CLG) +164

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -123 / +5.5 @ -105

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -127 / under -103)

CLG is just like Sandbox or Vitality. It’s uncanny. At some point it’s going to click and this team isn’t going to throw a lead that they get with some ridiculously stupid mid game play. Dignitas have looked really good for the most art this season. They’re not going to be some elite, top of the table team but it’s safe to say that they’re consistent enough to be a middle of the pack team that will likely be in contention for a playoff spot down the road. That said, I think there’s a strong chance they’re not as good as what we’ve seen and when the rest of the league catches up they’ll likely look much less polished.

My gut tells me to just take the underdog here. At some point things are going to break in favor of CLG but I’ve been saying that about Sandbox and we’ve all seen how that goes. Sometimes a team is just the Chargers. Close your nose and take the dogs here.

My Picks:

Moneyline: CLG +164 (1 unit)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

Leave a Reply