Saturday, August 7th Recap

 

Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk (TT) Gaming (Net: +0.78 units)

Royal Never Give Up vs BiliBili Gaming (Net: +4.35 units)

 

Afreeca Freecs vs Nongshim RedForce (Net: +5.85 units)

Fredit Brion vs Liiv Sandbox (Net: +0.05 units)

 

Evil Geniuses vs Dignitas (Net: +/- 0, +2.0 pre, -2.0 live)

 

 

 

LPL Net Total: +5.13 units

LCK Net Total: +5.9 units

LCS Net Total: +2.0 units

Live: -2.0 units

 

Daily Net Total: +11.03 units

 

 


LPL Summer 2021

Week Nine – Day Seven

 

 

TOP Esports -149 (-1.5 maps @ +184, +1.5 @ -476)

vs

Team WE +109 (+1.5 maps @ -244, -1.5 @ +330)

 

Map Moneyline: TOP -152 / WE +118

Kill Total: 28.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -116 / +4.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +109 / under -141)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -167 / +129 (map), -211 / +151 (series), +160 / -210 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play:  TOP series moneyline only (moderate)

Starters:

TOP – 369, Karsa, Knight, JackeyLove, Zhuo

WE – Breathe, Beishang, Shanks, Elk, Missing

Trends
TOP as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) WE as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 8 6 -919 Matches as Underdogs 3 3 +159
Against Map Spread 5 9 +6 Against Map Spread 4 2 -225
Against Kill Spread 16 18 6.4 Against Kill Spread 7 8 +4
Kill Totals 19 15 26.36 Kill Totals 6 9 26.33
Team Kill Totals 14 20 15.86 Team Kill Totals 7 8 11.17
Game Time Totals 15 19 30.4 Game Time Totals 7 8 30.83
Dragons over 4.5 12 22 Dragons over 4.5 7 8
Towers over 11.5 18 16 Towers over 11.5 8 7

 

League Rank TOP Tale of the Tape WE League Rank
2 1876.7 Gold Diff @ 10 min 11.8 8
7 459.3 Gold Diff @ 15 min 384.0 8
3 286.1 Gold Diff @ 20 min 362.5 8
42.4 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 24.9
4 59.3 Gold Diff / min first 20 54.9 6
1 502.0 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 306.4 9
4 1867.2 Gold /min (GPM) 1826.2 6
76.4 Gold / min vs Avg 35.4
4 135.5 Gold Diff / min 79.4 7
4 1.9 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.1 7
5 1638.3 Kill Agnostic GPM 1610.8 8
4 75.8 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 40.7 8
2 2004.1 GPM in wins 1943.4 10
1 396.0 Gold Diff per min in wins 339.9 8
3 1675.6 GPM in losses 1646.4 6
2 -229.1 Gold Diff per min in losses -319.9 8
136.2 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 80.1
2 56.0 Win-Adjusted GPM -4.7 10
1 73.8 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 17.7 8
4 57.9 Dragon Control % 48.0 11
2 61.1 Herald Control % 60.5 4
3 63.8 Baron Control % 58.1 6
18.0 Quality Wins? 12.0
85.7 % of wins as Quality 52.2

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 35.344%
2 1 28.663%
1 2 19.550%
0 2 16.442%
(Series Win): 64.008%

 

The price action for this series is a little weird but very typical of esports in general. The moneyline has taken a beating with people pouding Team WE while the derivative markets haven’t adjusted accordingly. It’s why the series moneyline is a strong value while the map spreads are not in this matchup. More on this in a bit.

Let’s take a look at the situation for both teams. This series is a huge deal for TOP Esports who will finish with the 9th seed if they lose (either 0-2 or 1-2) but if they win they’ll finish with the 5th seed (either 2-0 or 2-1). WE have a lot more different outcomes. They could finish with the #3 seed with a 2-0 win, #4 with a 2-1 win, 6th with a 1-2 loss, or 7th with an 0-2 loss. We mentioned it a little on the Discord but you could make a case that it would be beneficial for WE to want to get on the non-top three side of the bracket by “throwing” this match but typically teams don’t think about it this way. This is valuable practice time for a playoff atmosphere match against another playoff team. I wouldn’t put too much stock into it but it’s worth exploring.

I actually like TOP Esports here quite a bit. Similar to DAMWON they’ve been quietly improving their performance over the course of the season even if it’s not always coming up in the win column. However, both of these teams can be surprisingly “dumb” at times with their decision making so frankly no result would really surprise me. TOP have had stronger overall objective control and have been jumping out to early leads on people while WE have been struggling with their opening sequences, particularly in the opening ten minutes before getting it together and turning the corner. Typically when you see teams that have a strong opening sequence AND strong “ROG” or “rest of game” gold differential they’re controlling games wire-to-wire. TOP ESports have been improving in both and hold the leagues strongest rest of game gold differential per minute (post 20 minutes) while WE have been league average even after middling opening twenty minute performances.

I do this for playoffs anyway but since I was ahead of work on it I figured I’d show the filtered performance against other top teams. For the purposes of this exercise I simply looked at performance against the other nine playoff teams. You could make an argument that OMG should probably be cut from this list but I’ll be looking more at that for playoffs. Below is the Tale of the Tape and series outcomes if we filter the performance of both of these teams “just against the top nine.”

League Rank TOP Tale of the Tape WE League Rank
2 2145.5 Gold Diff @ 10 min 41.7 8
8 352.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min 489.6 7
3 228.7 Gold Diff @ 20 min 1225.0 8
22.8 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 21.8
6 38.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 14.6 7
1 475.8 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 70.1 12
4 1848.4 Gold /min (GPM) 1765.6 11
62.3 Gold / min vs Avg -20.6
4 127.0 Gold Diff / min -51.5 12
4 1.7 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.7 12
6 1624.7 Kill Agnostic GPM 1572.6 12
4 79.7 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -40.7 12
2 2006.8 GPM in wins 1906.7 13
1 414.3 Gold Diff per min in wins 275.2 14
3 1658.4 GPM in losses 1646.1 6
1 -217.7 Gold Diff per min in losses -327.9 10
135.9 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -42.6
2 60.8 Win-Adjusted GPM -39.3 13
1 94.9 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -44.3 14
4 58.9 Dragon Control % 50.0 10
2 63.6 Herald Control % 52.1 8
3 64.3 Baron Control % 44.0 13
12.0 Quality Wins? 3.0
100.0 % of wins as Quality 27.3

 

TOP Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 49.625%
2 1 29.333%
1 2 12.307%
0 2 8.735%
(Series Win): 78.958%

 

WE have performed significantly worse against the top teams while TOP Esports performance hasn’t deviated that much. There’s a little bit of a gut handicap on my end here as well. TOP should be better than the results they’ve posted this season but you can see just how much they elevate against the good teams. Every single win was a quality win.  I can definitely see the case for the other side here because, from an optics perspective, WE have “looked” better but I think TOP are going to win this series and we’re getting a very cheap price for them to do so.

For derivatives, TOP first herald is a decent play even though WE have a decent first herald rate as well. These are two of the top teams in this metric but if you filter against the “good” teams as we saw above, TOP maintain a 72.7% first herald rate. TOP first dragon is also a solid look. Strong edge on price but I’m going to opt for the under 4.5 dragons instead which has been absolutely killing it in the final weeks of the season. More than 66% of all games have gone under the dragon total since the Patch 11.13 tower change in the LPL. The under kill total isn’t a bad look here either given the stakes in this match compared to some of the others in the final weeks.

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: TOP Esports -149 (2.98 units)

Map Spread: TOP Esports -1.5 maps @ +185 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -112 (1.12 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -112 (1.12 units)

 

 


 

FunPlus Phoenix -152 (-1.5 maps @ +190, +1.5 @ -435)

vs

EDward Gaming +118 (+1.5 maps @ -250, -1.5 @ +309)

 

Map Moneyline: FPX -139 / EDG +109

Kill Total: 27.5 (over -110 / under -118)

Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -120 / +3.5 @ -109

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -112 / under -116)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -129 / +102 (map), -139 / +108 (series), +218 / -291 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play:  none

Starters:

FPX – Nuguri, Tian, Doinb, Lwx, Crisp

EDG – Flandre, Jiejie, Scout, Viper, Meiko

Trends
FPX as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) EDG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 11 3 -1240 Matches as Underdogs 0 0
Against Map Spread 8 6 -58 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 17 17 7.4 Against Kill Spread 0 0
Kill Totals 20 14 26.36 Kill Totals 0 0
Team Kill Totals 17 17 16.43 Team Kill Totals 0 0
Game Time Totals 15 19 29.9 Game Time Totals 0 0
Dragons over 4.5 11 23 Dragons over 4.5 0 0
Towers over 11.5 15 19 Towers over 11.5 0 0

 

League Rank FunPlus Tale of the Tape EDG League Rank
1 2564.2 Gold Diff @ 10 min 85.9 7
4 810.8 Gold Diff @ 15 min 825.0 3
1 310.6 Gold Diff @ 20 min -612.5 4
98.3 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 57.0
1 106.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 137.5 3
3 467.9 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 472.1 2
1 1927.6 Gold /min (GPM) 1884.9 3
136.8 Gold / min vs Avg 94.2
2 189.1 Gold Diff / min 211.6 1
2 2.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 3.0 1
1 1686.4 Kill Agnostic GPM 1644.9 3
1 127.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 108.0 2
1 2010.8 GPM in wins 1972.2 7
3 375.6 Gold Diff per min in wins 385.3 2
1 1711.2 GPM in losses 1623.3 11
4 -295.7 Gold Diff per min in losses -309.3 6
191.2 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 213.7
1 62.1 Win-Adjusted GPM 23.5 7
3 53.0 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 62.7 2
1 66.9 Dragon Control % 60.9 2
8 52.8 Herald Control % 60.9 2
1 65.8 Baron Control % 61.9 4
14.0 Quality Wins? 16.0
53.8 % of wins as Quality 66.7

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 28.501%
2 1 26.571%
1 2 23.200%
0 2 21.729%
(Series Win): 55.071%

 

These are my top two teams in the LPL right now although the top three (RNG is the other) are a cut above the field  to me and all similar. I think FPX are the best team in the league and probably the world at the moment.  I went ahead to looked at how these two have fared against the other playoff teams. Below is the filtered Tale of the Tape and series outcome projections with that filter on.

League Rank FunPlus Tale of the Tape EDG League Rank
1 2333.3 Gold Diff @ 10 min -126.3 9
4 732.8 Gold Diff @ 15 min 57.5 8
1 322.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -525.0 7
111.9 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 19.4
1 107.6 Gold Diff / min first 20 64.0 8
1 519.1 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 406.0 5
1 1928.5 Gold /min (GPM) 1814.2 7
141.8 Gold / min vs Avg 27.6
1 172.8 Gold Diff / min 81.9 6
1 2.3 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.2 6
1 1685.5 Kill Agnostic GPM 1614.9 7
1 116.3 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 29.5 8
1 2020.5 GPM in wins 1941.6 11
2 371.9 Gold Diff per min in wins 342.8 7
1 1718.1 GPM in losses 1623.3 11
3 -282.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -309.3 6
183.4 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 92.6
1 73.0 Win-Adjusted GPM -5.9 11
2 52.0 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 22.9 7
1 68.8 Dragon Control % 55.3 4
8 52.2 Herald Control % 55.0 6
1 69.6 Baron Control % 48.1 13
7.0 Quality Wins? 6.0
43.8 % of wins as Quality 50.0

 

FPX Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 41.187%
2 1 29.509%
1 2 16.472%
0 2 12.833%
(Series Win): 70.696%

With the filter on, FPX have performed significantly better than EDG against the other strong teams in the LPL. Price should likely be more than this if you’re looking strictly at that sample size (ballpark -282 / +209 or so).

Both teams have locked up the top two seeds regardless of the result here so while this match might not mean much, again it’s the last match these two will play for a couple of weeks since they have multiple byes and I’d imagine they treat it like a practice playoff match.

FPX have earned the nod from me here. They perform better against the other top nine teams than any other team in the LPL and as a matter of fact, perform even better than their overall performance. If you were to take just FPX against the other top nine teams they’d still grade out as the best team in the LPL and a decent amount better than their season long total. This should probably be a bigger number than it is.

If you’re looking to play the underdogs I think first blood for EDG at anything better than -160 is a solid play. I’m sticking to just FPX sides.

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: FPX -159 (3.18 units)

Map Spread: FPX -1.5 maps @ +183 (1 unit)

 


LCK Summer 2021

Week Nine – Day Four

 

DAMWON Kia Gaming -202 (-1.5 maps @ +149, +1.5 @ -587)

vs

Gen.G +164 (+1.5 maps @ -182, -1.5 @ +419)

 

Map Moneyline: DWG -177 / GEG +144

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -118 / under -112)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -110 / +5.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -118 / under -112)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -169 / +138 (map), -210 / +170 (series), +1577 / -193 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play:  none

(lines from Pinnacle)

 

Trends
DWG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) GEG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 9 6 -607 Matches as Underdogs 0 1 +120
Against Map Spread 7 8 -48 Against Map Spread 1 0 -238
Against Kill Spread 17 20 6.6 Against Kill Spread 2 1 +5
Kill Totals 23 14 23.57 Kill Totals 2 1 22.50
Team Kill Totals 22 15 14.57 Team Kill Totals 1 2 9.50
Game Time Totals 22 15 31.3 Game Time Totals 1 2 33.00
Dragons over 4.5 15 22 Dragons over 4.5 2 1
Towers over 11.5 20 17 Towers over 11.5 2 1

 

 

League Rank DWG Tale of the Tape GEG League Rank
3.0 198.3 Gold Diff @ 10 min -49.2 7.0
2.0 1006.9 Gold Diff @ 15 min -408.3 8.0
2.0 1382.4 Gold Diff @ 20 min -440.5 8.0
24.8 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 6.9
2.0 24.1 Gold Diff / min first 20 3.8 6.0
4.0 114.5 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 329.0 1.0
1.0 1825.4 Gold /min (GPM) 1816.4 2.0
54.5 Gold / min vs Avg 45.6
1.0 114.5 Gold Diff / min 96.8 2.0
1.0 1.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.3 3.0
4.0 1630.3 Kill Agnostic GPM 1631.3 3.0
1.0 81.2 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 50.1 3.0
1.0 1951.2 GPM in wins 1947.6 3.0
1.0 353.5 Gold Diff per min in wins 333.0 3.0
8.0 1600.7 GPM in losses 1627.9 4.0
5.0 -312.4 Gold Diff per min in losses -242.8 2.0
114.3 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 96.6
1.0 32.3 Win-Adjusted GPM 28.6 3.0
1.0 56.3 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 35.9 3.0
3.0 56.1 Dragon Control % 56.5 2.0
1.0 59.2 Herald Control % 40.3 9.0
1.0 75.5 Baron Control % 59.6 2.0
15.0 Quality Wins? 13.0
60.0 % of wins as Quality 56.5

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 36.494%
2 1 28.896%
1 2 18.937%
0 2 15.674%
(Series Win): 65.389%

 

Weirdly enough this match could potentially decide which of these teams gets a top two seed or not if Nongshim and Sandbox can’t hold on and T1 don’t also challenge. Technically AF aren’t out of that conversation either. I’d expect this to be a playoff caliber match. The LCK in general doesn’t really sandbag or mail it in to hide things very often. They take matches seriously so I’d anticipate a competitive match here.

This is a sharp number based on what we’ve seen performance wise from these teams. You could maybe make a case that DAMWON have looked better and better over the course of the season while Gen.G are a bit too linear for my taste but I don’t really see an edge on either side of this market.

Derivative markets are more intriguing with plus money on GenG first dragon and -103 on Gen.G first blood showing sizeable advantages if you want to look toward those but I’m not playing anything in this match besides the map one angles I’ve been playing.

 

My Picks:

Map One Angles

Kill Total (alt): Map 1 UNDER 22.5 @ +109 (1 unit)

Time Total: Map 1 OVER 33:00 @ -118 (1.18 units)

 

 


 

DRX +605 (+1.5 maps @ +174, -1.5 @ +1350)

vs

T1 -909 (-1.5 maps @ -227)

 

Map Moneyline: DRX +365 / T1 -556

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: +8.5 @ -116 / -8.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 7.5 / 15.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over +100 / under -130)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +475 / -799 (map), +1207 / -2861 (series), +240 / -325 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play:  T1 series moneyline and -1.5 maps

Trends
T1 as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) DRX as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 8 5 -332 Matches as Underdogs 2 13 +305
Against Map Spread 4 9 +54 Against Map Spread 7 8 -55
Against Kill Spread 13 19 5.7 Against Kill Spread 17 20 +6
Kill Totals 11 21 23.12 Kill Totals 22 15 22.90
Team Kill Totals 12 20 13.58 Team Kill Totals 16 21 8.63
Game Time Totals 13 19 32.6 Game Time Totals 18 19 32.47
Dragons over 4.5 14 18 Dragons over 4.5 15 22
Towers over 11.5 18 14 Towers over 11.5 19 17

 

League Rank T1 Tale of the Tape DRX League Rank
1.0 804.9 Gold Diff @ 10 min -156.5 9.0
1.0 1815.2 Gold Diff @ 15 min -298.9 7.0
1.0 1945.1 Gold Diff @ 20 min -96.8 9.0
62.7 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -22.7
1.0 78.2 Gold Diff / min first 20 -72.5 10.0
2.0 150.2 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -479.7 10.0
3.0 1816.0 Gold /min (GPM) 1693.0 10.0
45.2 Gold / min vs Avg -77.9
3.0 91.7 Gold Diff / min -196.7 10.0
2.0 1.3 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.7 10.0
1.0 1655.8 Kill Agnostic GPM 1575.0 10.0
2.0 62.4 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -108.9 10.0
7.0 1915.5 GPM in wins 1882.3 9.0
4.0 323.8 Gold Diff per min in wins 223.6 10.0
1.0 1681.4 GPM in losses 1636.2 2.0
1.0 -222.4 Gold Diff per min in losses -322.9 9.0
91.5 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -196.9
7.0 -3.4 Win-Adjusted GPM -36.7 9.0
4.0 26.6 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -73.6 10.0
8.0 47.6 Dragon Control % 34.5 10.0
6.0 52.6 Herald Control % 45.3 7.0
5.0 54.2 Baron Control % 28.9 10.0
13.0 Quality Wins? 1.0
56.5 % of wins as Quality 11.1

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 73.529%
2 1 20.957%
1 2 3.483%
0 2 2.031%
(Series Win): 94.486%

 

DRX have looked improved but they’re still by far the worst team in the LCK. T1 have locked a playoff spot but are still battling for seeding.

Honestly I wouldn’t get cute here and just take T1 to sweep. I would normally play the map one angles but T1 should be able to control this wire-to-wire. The +8.5 kills on map one for DRX is intriguing but I think there’s a reasonable chance this is just a super lopsided match so I’m just dodging the map one narrative altogether.

My Picks:

Map Spread: T1 -1.5 maps @ -227 (2.27 units)

 

 

 


LCS Playoffs

Round One – Day Two

 

Cloud 9 -149 (-1.5 maps @ +133, -2.5 @ +384, +1.5 @ -312, +2.5 @ -1250)

vs

Team Liquid +124 (+1.5 maps @ -169, +2.5 @ -588, -1.5 @ +233, -2.5 @ +629)

 

Map Totals: 3.5 maps (over -278 / under +208), 4.5 maps (over +182 / under -238)

Map Moneyline: C9 -135 / TL +106

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -104 / under -125)

Kill Spread: -1.5 @ -118 / +1.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -110 / under -119)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -128 / +101 (map), -139 / +116 (series), ~ +160 / -185 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play:  none

 

Trends
C9 as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) TL as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 13 10 -322 Matches as Underdogs 0 6 +40
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 12 11 6.0 Against Kill Spread 0 6 +2
Kill Totals 9 14 24.67 Kill Totals 1 5 24.67
Team Kill Totals 13 10 14.72 Team Kill Totals 0 6 11.83
Game Time Totals 12 11 31.1 Game Time Totals 4 2 32.33
Dragons over 4.5 12 11 Dragons over 4.5 4 2
Towers over 11.5 15 8 Towers over 11.5 5 1

 

League Rank C9 Tale of the Tape TL League Rank
4 497.2 Gold Diff @ 10 min 787.2 2
3 570.7 Gold Diff @ 15 min 1299.2 2
3 1054.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min 1680.5 2
23.7 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 24.6
4 57.0 Gold Diff / min first 20 59.0 3
1 385.1 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 123.4 4
2 1893.0 Gold /min (GPM) 1810.0 3
103.7 Gold / min vs Avg 20.7
1 146.7 Gold Diff / min 76.9 4
2 2.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.1 4
2 1684.4 Kill Agnostic GPM 1633.9 3
2 84.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 47.8 4
7 1599.8 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1586.1 8
1 2076.5 GPM in wins 1939.9 4
1 425.2 Gold Diff per min in wins 362.2 2
2 1663.5 GPM in losses 1647.6 3
1 -201.4 Gold Diff per min in losses -279.8 4
143.1 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 73.3
1 132.6 Win-Adjusted GPM -4.0 4
1 120.1 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 57.1 2
4 54.7 Dragon Control % 49.6 6
6 50.0 Herald Control % 49.0 7
3 56.8 Baron Control % 52.9 4
13.0 Quality Wins? 11.0
86.7 % of wins as Quality 73.3

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
3 1 21.147%
3 2 19.789%
2 3 17.402%
1 3 16.353%
3 0 15.065%
0 3 10.244%
(Series Win): 56.000%

 

Cloud 9 won the head-to-head 3-2 during the Summer split.

 

Quantitative Analysis:

It should be noted that quantitative analysis of this Liquid team is challenging because of the lineup changes they’ve gone through over the course of the Summer split.

Overall Cloud 9 have been a stronger team but not by as much as most people think. Liquid have respectable numbers in pretty much every measurable but if we look at just Liquid with this lineup their numbers are even better than this.

Let’s take a look at how the teams have fared against just the other top five teams since there’s a clear distinction in the LCS. Again, this is more to look at Cloud 9 against good opponents because we have a very small sample of this version of the Liquid lineup against good teams.

League Rank C9 Tale of the Tape TL League Rank
4 22.4 Gold Diff @ 10 min -97.1 5
7 -664.7 Gold Diff @ 15 min -482.4 6
8 -343.9 Gold Diff @ 20 min -773.1 7
-24.7 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -17.0
9 -65.5 Gold Diff / min first 20 -53.5 6
7 -161.8 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -356.0 9
7 1725.0 Gold /min (GPM) 1692.9 9
-35.8 Gold / min vs Avg -67.9
6 -77.4 Gold Diff / min -165.6 9
7 -1.2 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.3 9
6 1583.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1578.7 7
6 -47.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -95.6 8
5 1631.5 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1674.4 1
2 1975.7 GPM in wins 1887.0 9
1 360.5 Gold Diff per min in wins 283.5 6
6 1613.5 GPM in losses 1654.1 2
4 -272.0 Gold Diff per min in losses -255.5 3
-34.3 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -122.5
2 47.2 Win-Adjusted GPM -41.5 9
1 69.8 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -7.3 6
7 44.3 Dragon Control % 29.5 10
8 38.5 Herald Control % 36.4 9
7 42.9 Baron Control % 36.8 10
4.0 Quality Wins? 2.0
100.0 % of wins as Quality 100.0

 

While these numbers look a lot different, the end result in the model filter is less than a 2% bump per map in this version making this still not really worth a play.

 

Conclusion: From a quantitative perspective this number is spot on and a no bet.

 

Qualitative Analysis:

We talked about it quite a bit on The Gold Card Podcast this week but generally speaking I think you have to give Liquid a little more respect when they’re running the “original” lineup. The players are just significantly better and more experienced. It makes the handicap very challenging.

With this iteration of Liquid I think it provides a unique challenge to Cloud 9 who have relied heavily on the performance of Fudge this season to perform the way they have. He’s simply not going to be able to do that against Alphari one of the few top laners I’d say is better than him despite the tumultuous season this Summer. It means the rest of the map is going to have to step up to compensate. They’re certainly more than capable of doing that but it’s enough doubt that I’m not sure I’d want to be on the Cloud 9 side of this match I’d rather avoid it.

A lot of people are going to point to Liquid’s performance against good teams this season but as I showed above, while it’s obviously worse and the results have been worse, the majority of those results weren’t with the original lineup so it’s difficult to tell especially because they had an excellent performance this past weekend with this lineup.

It’s a bit of a gut handicap but again part of this is blending art and science. I think Liquid would be the side if I absolutely had to take one in this contest but I think this is a fair price overall and won’t be playing any sides. Coming into the season with this lineup they were one of the favorites to win the split and while it’s been thrown together on short notice and been quite the journey to get here, it’s tough not to give the respect to these experienced veterans like this especially since there’s a lot less film with this roster on these patches for Cloud 9. I think Liquid are totally live to win this contest but as it stands this is a fair price.

 

Conclusion: “Gut” would lean Liquid. Cloud 9 win conditions more difficult against this team and film advantage for Liquid. No plays on the side.

 

Derivatives and other markets:

Kill total unders and the time total over were flagged by the model when you filtered to “just against the good teams” but were on market if you look at the full season evaluation. Liquid first tower was the biggest edge on the board with a 70.37% rate to C9’s 37%. I’ll be playing that. For C9 backers, the C9 first blood was the strongest edge on market price.

My Picks:

Prop: Map 1 Liquid first tower @ -135 (1.35 units)

Prop: Map 2 Liquid first tower @ -135 (1.35 units)

Prop: Map 3 Liquid first tower @ -135 (1.35 units)

Prop: Map 4 Liquid first tower @ -135 (1.35 units)

Prop: Map 5 Liquid first tower @ -135 (1.35 units)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and you can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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