Saturday, July 31st Recap

 

Royal Never Give Up vs RareAtom (no action)

TOP Esports vs UltraPrime (no action)

JD Gaming vs FunPlus Phoenix (Net: +1.83 units)

 

Fredit Brion vs T1 (Net: +0.846 units)

Afreeca Freecs vs DRX (Net: -4.405 units)

 

SK Gaming vs Misfits (Net: +0.5 units)

Excel Esports vs Astralis (Net: +3.64 units)

Vitality vs Rogue (no action)

Schalke 04 vs G2 Esports (Net: +0.26 units)

MAD Lions vs Fnatic (Net: +0.992 units)

 

Golden Guardians vs 100 Thieves (pending)

Dignitas vs Cloud 9 (pending)

FlyQuest vs Immortals (pending)

TSM vs CLG (pending)

Liquid vs Evil Geniuses (pending)

 

 

LPL Net Total: +1.83 units

LCK Net Total: -3.559 units

LEC Net Total: +5.392 units

LCS Net Total: pending

 

Daily Net Total: (pending)

 

 


LPL Summer 2021

Week Eight – Day Seven

 

 

OMG -102 (+1.5 maps @ -286, -1.5 @ +261)

vs

LGD Gaming -125 (-1.5 maps @ +215, +1.5 @ -357)

 

Map Moneyline: OMG +104 / LGD -132

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -110 / under -118)

Kill Spread: +3.5 @ -110 / -3.5 @ -118

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -108 / under -120)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -123 / -103 (map), -129 / +101 (series), -310 / +231 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play:  OMG series moneyline (light)

Starters:

OMG – New, AKi, Creme, Able, COLD

LGD – Garvey, Shad0w, Xiye, Kramer, Mark

Trends
LGD as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) OMG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 4 0 -426 Matches as Underdogs 4 6 +373
Against Map Spread 4 0 +20 Against Map Spread 5 5 -13
Against Kill Spread 8 0 5.5 Against Kill Spread 12 12 +7
Kill Totals 5 3 26.00 Kill Totals 12 12 25.50
Team Kill Totals 6 2 15.50 Team Kill Totals 14 10 9.20
Game Time Totals 3 5 30.0 Game Time Totals 11 13 30.30
Dragons over 4.5 3 5 Dragons over 4.5 6 18
Towers over 11.5 3 5 Towers over 11.5 7 17

 

League Rank LGD Tale of the Tape OMG League Rank
12 -382.3 Gold Diff @ 10 min -273.8 10
14 -1193.7 Gold Diff @ 15 min -587.0 10
12 -2462.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -487.5 10
-22.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -35.0
13 -71.4 Gold Diff / min first 20 -56.7 14
12 234.8 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -82.2 15
12 1765.3 Gold /min (GPM) 1743.8 13
-24.7 Gold / min vs Avg -46.1
12 -39.6 Gold Diff / min -82.2 13
12 -0.5 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -1.1 13
13 1571.5 Kill Agnostic GPM 1559.5 14
12 -21.8 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -57.4 13
13 1923.0 GPM in wins 1889.1 16
13 293.7 Gold Diff per min in wins 255.2 15
8 1633.9 GPM in losses 1589.5 14
9 -317.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -440.8 17
-35.3 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -78.0
13 -25.0 Win-Adjusted GPM -59.0 16
13 -25.6 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -64.0 15
13 46.2 Dragon Control % 53.7 6
14 39.4 Herald Control % 49.2 10
8 54.3 Baron Control % 53.8 9
6.0 Quality Wins? 6.0
40.0 % of wins as Quality 35.3

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
0 2 27.292%
1 2 26.068%
2 1 23.831%
2 0 22.808%
(Series Win): 46.639%

 

In a weird way these two teams are both highly fraudulent but I do think OMG have generally been playing better over the course of the second half of the season. With JDG losing again today, both of these teams can taste a playoff berth. Currently OMG are up two series on LGD so if LGD are going to make a “miracle” run and win their last two series that have to take care of business here.

There’s a reasonable chance that if LGD lose game one, sicne they desperately need specifically a 2-0 here, that they just tilt off and get smashed but there’s a lot of pressure on both teams.

I agree with the model that OMG are worth considering here but it’s not really enough to warrant a position from me. Instead I’m going to look to a few derivatives. OMG first dragon and first blood are both advantage plays and I’ll be opting for the first blood in this case.

My Picks:

Prop: Map 1 OMG first blood @ -114 (1.14 units)

Prop: Map 2 OMG first blood @ -114 (1.14 units)

 


 

Team WE -175 (-1.5 maps @ +162, +1.5 @ -500)

vs

Invictus Gaming +136 (+1.5 maps @ -213, -1.5 @ +341)

 

Map Moneyline: WE -154 / IG +120

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -123 / under -105)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -120 / +4.5 @ -109

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -109 / under -119)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -162 / +126 (map), -194 / +150 (series), +166 / -218 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play:  none

Starters:

WE – Breathe, Beishang, Shanks, Elk, Missing

IG – TheShy, XUN, Rookie, Wink, Lucas

Trends
WE as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) IG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 6 2 -780 Matches as Underdogs 3 5 +199
Against Map Spread 3 5 -18 Against Map Spread 3 5 -157
Against Kill Spread 12 9 6.8 Against Kill Spread 9 8 +6
Kill Totals 12 9 25.63 Kill Totals 8 9 26.25
Team Kill Totals 11 10 15.63 Team Kill Totals 9 8 10.75
Game Time Totals 12 9 30.8 Game Time Totals 8 9 30.50
Dragons over 4.5 10 11 Dragons over 4.5 5 12
Towers over 11.5 11 10 Towers over 11.5 8 9

 

 

League Rank WE Tale of the Tape Invictus League Rank
4 521.2 Gold Diff @ 10 min 357.6 7
1 1776.4 Gold Diff @ 15 min -177.5 9
6 2712.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -50.0 9
31.6 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 8.9
5 65.8 Gold Diff / min first 20 -14.6 9
9 310.6 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 418.9 5
5 1836.9 Gold /min (GPM) 1813.6 8
47.0 Gold / min vs Avg 23.7
6 89.4 Gold Diff / min -2.3 10
5 1.3 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.0 10
9 1617.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1620.4 8
6 48.5 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 10.7 10
8 1951.9 GPM in wins 1992.4 3
6 347.7 Gold Diff per min in wins 338.8 7
6 1660.1 GPM in losses 1670.6 4
7 -308.0 Gold Diff per min in losses -275.2 3
93.7 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 1.9
8 3.8 Win-Adjusted GPM 44.4 3
6 28.4 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 19.5 7
9 50.3 Dragon Control % 54.1 5
4 60.6 Herald Control % 61.1 2
6 59.5 Baron Control % 57.1 7
11.0 Quality Wins? 3.0
55.0 % of wins as Quality 25.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 34.514%
2 1 28.475%
1 2 19.994%
0 2 17.016%
(Series Win): 62.990%

Both of these teams are very difficult to evaluate because their measurables are impressive but they’re remarkably inconsistent in taking advantage of them. They’ve both won some excellent series and lost some embarrassingly bad series. WE have already clinched playoffs but this is the last stand for Invictus who no longer control their own fate. They need to win out and get some help.

This is a bit of a gut read but I feel like Invictus is the play here and the reason is that this WE bottom lane has been horrible relative to expectation this season. The way you beat Invictus is abusing the bottom lane because their top trio, regardless of the top lane starter, is very strong even still. Any team that can’t consistently punish their bottom lane I’m going to have my doubts about.

I’m not making a play on the side on this one but I do like the over 12.5 towers and the under 4.5 dragons. I like the under dragons slightly more in this situation.

My Picks:

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -116 (1.16 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -122 (1.22 units)

 


LCK Summer 2021

Week Eight – Day Four

 

 

Hanwha Life Esports +191 (+1.5 maps @ -167, -1.5 @ +453)

vs

Nongshim RedForce -233 (-1.5 maps @ +130, +1.5 @ -714)

 

Map Moneyline: HLE +147 / NS -189

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -104 / under -125)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -114 / -4.5 @ -114

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -112 / under -116)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: +114 / -145 (map), +134 / -160 (series), -249 / +188 (+1.5 / -1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: Hanwha series moneyline, +1.5 maps, and -1.5 maps

 

Trends
NS as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) HLE as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 6 3 -195 Matches as Underdogs 1 5 +209
Against Map Spread 2 7 +167 Against Map Spread 3 3 -172
Against Kill Spread 10 14 3.9 Against Kill Spread 7 8 +5
Kill Totals 11 13 23.28 Kill Totals 7 8 24.50
Team Kill Totals 12 12 12.94 Team Kill Totals 7 8 9.83
Game Time Totals 14 10 32.9 Game Time Totals 7 8 32.33
Dragons over 4.5 13 11 Dragons over 4.5 6 9
Towers over 11.5 8 15 Towers over 11.5 8 7

 

 

League Rank NS Tale of the Tape HLE League Rank
3.0 439.3 Gold Diff @ 10 min 821.5 1.0
7.0 -146.4 Gold Diff @ 15 min 454.6 2.0
4.0 146.6 Gold Diff @ 20 min -59.5 2.0
-33.4 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 12.3
6.0 4.7 Gold Diff / min first 20 10.5 4.0
3.0 138.2 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -191.8 9.0
4.0 1785.6 Gold /min (GPM) 1756.4 7.0
16.5 Gold / min vs Avg -12.7
4.0 48.5 Gold Diff / min -48.4 9.0
4.0 0.7 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.6 9.0
5.0 1612.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1599.7 7.0
4.0 14.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -21.4 7.0
8.0 1890.3 GPM in wins 1932.7 4.0
9.0 252.8 Gold Diff per min in wins 348.0 2.0
5.0 1613.8 GPM in losses 1633.1 2.0
3.0 -287.1 Gold Diff per min in losses -325.8 7.0
50.1 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -46.8
8.0 -26.1 Win-Adjusted GPM 16.3 4.0
9.0 -48.1 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 47.1 2.0
6.0 50.0 Dragon Control % 42.8 9.0
6.0 52.7 Herald Control % 59.7 2.0
4.0 54.9 Baron Control % 38.1 8.0
7.0 Quality Wins? 9.0
41.2 % of wins as Quality 64.3

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 31.659%
2 1 27.691%
1 2 21.524%
0 2 19.127%
(Series Win): 59.350%

 

I’ve been preaching the Nongshim are due for  regression gospel for awhile now but this is still a good team and Hanwha, despite making some improvements, are not. The wrinkle here is motivation. Hanwha Life are still alive for a playoff berth and with Afreeca dropping a series unexpectedly to DRX this morning that’s now a more likely possibility than it was yesterday. Could be a galvanizing factor.

I really hate betting on this Hanwha team but this is a big number and it strong motivation spot for them while Nongshim still sit atop the table at 10-4. I’ll be playing Hanwha and our recent map one plays.

 

My Picks:

Map one angles

Time Total: Map 1 OVER 33:00 @ -112 (1.12 units)

Kill Total (alt): Map 1 UNDER 23.5 @ -103 (1.03 units)

Map Spread: HLE +1.5 maps @ -167 (1.67 units)

Moneyline: HLE +191 (0.5 units)

Map Spread: HLE -1.5 maps @ +453 (0.25 units)

 


 

DAMWON Kia Gaming -435 (-1.5 maps @ -133)

vs

KT Rolster +327 (+1.5 maps @ +104, -1.5 @ +796)

 

Map Moneyline: DWG -323 / KT +239

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -122 / under -106)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -127 / +6.5 @ -103

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -122 / under -108)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -282 / +212 (map), -453 / +338 (series), -114 / -112 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play: none

Trends
DWG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) KT as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 7 6 -641 Matches as Underdogs 3 6 +220
Against Map Spread 5 8 -37 Against Map Spread 6 3 -161
Against Kill Spread 13 20 6.7 Against Kill Spread 10 12 +5
Kill Totals 20 13 23.50 Kill Totals 10 12 23.61
Team Kill Totals 18 15 14.50 Team Kill Totals 10 12 9.50
Game Time Totals 22 11 31.2 Game Time Totals 9 13 32.44
Dragons over 4.5 14 19 Dragons over 4.5 8 14
Towers over 11.5 19 14 Towers over 11.5 8 14

 

 

League Rank DWG Tale of the Tape KT League Rank
6.0 -81.4 Gold Diff @ 10 min -239.0 8.0
3.0 300.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min -42.0 6.0
3.0 420.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -664.9 8.0
21.2 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 9.0
3.0 12.8 Gold Diff / min first 20 -11.1 8.0
4.0 86.0 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -151.1 8.0
3.0 1813.9 Gold /min (GPM) 1763.4 6.0
44.7 Gold / min vs Avg -5.8
3.0 86.0 Gold Diff / min -31.0 7.0
3.0 1.2 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.5 7.0
4.0 1626.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1596.3 9.0
1.0 68.2 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -21.6 8.0
1.0 1956.0 GPM in wins 1948.2 2.0
1.0 351.6 Gold Diff per min in wins 324.7 5.0
8.0 1600.7 GPM in losses 1607.8 7.0
6.0 -312.4 Gold Diff per min in losses -330.5 8.0
88.0 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -29.0
1.0 39.5 Win-Adjusted GPM 31.6 2.0
1.0 51.0 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 24.0 5.0
3.0 54.1 Dragon Control % 48.3 7.0
1.0 60.3 Herald Control % 45.6 7.0
1.0 74.0 Baron Control % 52.5 6.0
13.0 Quality Wins? 11.0
61.9 % of wins as Quality 68.8

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 50.289%
2 1 29.253%
1 2 11.998%
0 2 8.459%
(Series Win): 79.543%

 

DAMWON are looking more and more in form albeit nothing close to the dominant level we saw in 2020. Still, this is a team that’s been improving steadily as they work themselves into playoff shape. They control their own fate for playoffs while KT Rolster are now on their last legs and need a bit of a miracle to make it at this point. I’d expect DAMOWN to smash this series but there isn’t a lot of actionable angles besides our game one plays here.

My Picks:

Time Total: Map 1 OVER 33:00 @ -122 (1.22 units)

Kill Total (alt): Map 1 UNDER 23.5 @ +114 (1 unit)

Kill Spread: Map 1 KT +6.5 kills @ -103 (1.03 units)

 


LEC Summer 2021

“Super” Week Eight – Day Three

Summer Season Finale

 

Astralis +118 vs Team Vitality -152

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -114 / under -115)

Kill Spread: +3.5 @ -116 / -3.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -154 / under +118)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: AST +145 / VIT -189

Model Suggested Play: Vitality moneyline (light)

 

Trends
VIT as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) AST as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 4 4 -240 Matches as Underdogs 5 10 +214
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 4 4 5.5 Against Kill Spread 9 6 +6
Kill Totals 2 6 25.25 Kill Totals 6 9 26.17
Team Kill Totals 2 6 14.50 Team Kill Totals 10 5 10.10
Game Time Totals 3 5 32.3 Game Time Totals 9 6 31.67
Dragons over 4.5 3 5 Dragons over 4.5 8 7
Towers over 11.5 3 5 Towers over 11.5 8 7

 

 

 

League Rank VIT Tale of the Tape AST League Rank
8.0 -439.5 Gold Diff @ 10 min -1224.0 10.0
5.0 -42.2 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1922.7 9.0
7.0 -226.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1967.8 9.0
3.4 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -69.9
6.0 -1.0 Gold Diff / min first 20 -129.2 10.0
8.0 -177.0 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -116.1 7.0
6.0 1764.5 Gold /min (GPM) 1700.4 9.0
-22.0 Gold / min vs Avg -86.1
7.0 -61.9 Gold Diff / min -151.1 9.0
6.0 -0.8 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.1 9.0
6.0 1590.5 Kill Agnostic GPM 1529.9 10.0
6.0 -22.2 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -113.8 9.0
3.0 1986.1 GPM in wins 1847.1 10.0
1.0 464.8 Gold Diff per min in wins 159.0 10.0
6.0 1653.8 GPM in losses 1602.5 8.0
7.0 -325.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -357.8 10.0
-62.0 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -151.1
3.0 57.5 Win-Adjusted GPM -81.4 10.0
1.0 174.3 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -131.5 10.0
5.0 54.1 Dragon Control % 38.7 8.0
7.0 42.9 Herald Control % 40.0 8.0
7.0 40.0 Baron Control % 37.5 8.0
4.0 Quality Wins? 0.0
80.0 % of wins as Quality 0.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Vitality lost both tiebreakers to Astralis and Excel but it’s as simple as they need to win this match and for Excel to lose to G2 and they get the final playoff spot. For Astralis a win and they’re in if Excel loses to G2. If they win AND Excel win then we’ll get an actual tiebreaker because the head-to-head is also tied.

Vitality are the better team and have been the better team this season despite some inconsistencies. They also have a significantly higher ceiling on both an individual and team level. I don’t think they’re one of the better teams in the league but I do think they’re significantly better than the bottom three. Excel there’s a reasonable argument for as better than them. I also think Vitality have looked very good so far this weekend and they’re in good form.

Nothing would surprise me but I’m going to back the favorites. Astralis have been fraudulent all season.

My Picks:

Kill Spread: Vitality -3.5 kills @ -116 (1.16 units)

 

 


 

Rogue -417 vs SK Gaming +293

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -106 / +8.5 @ -127

Team Kill Totals: 16.5 / 8.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -119 / under -109)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: ROG -672 / SK +425

Model Suggested Play: Rogue moneyline

Trends
ROG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) SK as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 12 5 -305 Matches as Underdogs 5 12 +205
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 8 9 6.1 Against Kill Spread 10 7 +7
Kill Totals 9 8 25.91 Kill Totals 7 10 25.97
Team Kill Totals 9 8 15.26 Team Kill Totals 10 7 9.74
Game Time Totals 8 9 31.6 Game Time Totals 9 8 31.24
Dragons over 4.5 8 9 Dragons over 4.5 7 10
Towers over 11.5 11 6 Towers over 11.5 10 7

 

 

League Rank ROG Tale of the Tape SK League Rank
2.0 1100.6 Gold Diff @ 10 min -548.1 9.0
1.0 2993.8 Gold Diff @ 15 min -757.1 8.0
1.0 2432.9 Gold Diff @ 20 min -902.9 8.0
114.8 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -61.6
1.0 190.4 Gold Diff / min first 20 -103.4 8.0
1.0 372.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -307.3 9.0
2.0 1909.5 Gold /min (GPM) 1710.3 8.0
123.0 Gold / min vs Avg -76.2
1.0 216.5 Gold Diff / min -150.1 8.0
1.0 3.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.1 8.0
1.0 1691.2 Kill Agnostic GPM 1561.4 8.0
1.0 140.9 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -102.8 8.0
2.0 1989.5 GPM in wins 1907.7 6.0
2.0 383.1 Gold Diff per min in wins 259.6 6.0
3.0 1689.4 GPM in losses 1611.6 7.0
5.0 -241.7 Gold Diff per min in losses -355.0 9.0
216.4 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -150.2
2.0 61.0 Win-Adjusted GPM -20.8 6.0
2.0 92.6 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -30.9 6.0
6.0 50.8 Dragon Control % 49.3 7.0
1.0 70.0 Herald Control % 36.7 9.0
3.0 60.0 Baron Control % 36.8 9.0
9.0 Quality Wins? 2.0
81.8 % of wins as Quality 40.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Because they lost both games to G2, if Rogue were to lose this game they could lose a top two seed for playoffs out of nowhere. They haven’t looked all that sharp this weekend and SK Gaming are still competing even though they’re eliminated. I’d expect Rogue to show up for this match and take care of business. this is just a huge gap in class. I’m not going to lay the moneyline but look to different markets for this one.

Rogue first herald is the strongest edge on the board. First tower isn’t bad either but we’ll stick to the herald. The over 12.5 towers has been flagged also but I think there’s a strong chance Rogue just completely steamroll this game wire-to-wire so I’ll stick to just the herald.

My Picks:

Prop: Rogue first herald @ -152 (1.52 units)

 


 

MAD Lions -152 vs Misfits +118

 

Kill Total: 27.5 (over -109 / under -120)

Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -119 / +3.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -122 / under -106)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: MAD +112 / MSF -144

Model Suggested Play: Misfits moneyline (strong)

Trends
MAD as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) MSF as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 10 4 -313 Matches as Underdogs 4 4 +76
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 4 10 6.0 Against Kill Spread 5 3 +4
Kill Totals 9 5 27.00 Kill Totals 4 4 26.88
Team Kill Totals 4 10 15.86 Team Kill Totals 4 4 11.88
Game Time Totals 11 3 31.3 Game Time Totals 4 4 32.13
Dragons over 4.5 7 7 Dragons over 4.5 6 2
Towers over 11.5 11 3 Towers over 11.5 4 4

 

League Rank MAD Tale of the Tape MSF League Rank
5.0 32.0 Gold Diff @ 10 min 325.3 4.0
7.0 -406.3 Gold Diff @ 15 min 809.3 2.0
5.0 -607.1 Gold Diff @ 20 min 555.8 3.0
10.8 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 21.8
4.0 44.4 Gold Diff / min first 20 50.2 3.0
3.0 216.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 215.1 4.0
5.0 1819.8 Gold /min (GPM) 1820.9 4.0
33.3 Gold / min vs Avg 34.4
5.0 86.7 Gold Diff / min 99.9 3.0
5.0 1.2 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.5 3.0
4.0 1634.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1622.9 5.0
3.0 74.1 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 44.5 5.0
8.0 1892.5 GPM in wins 1885.0 9.0
8.0 236.1 Gold Diff per min in wins 240.2 7.0
4.0 1674.4 GPM in losses 1692.9 2.0
3.0 -212.2 Gold Diff per min in losses -180.6 1.0
86.6 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 99.9
8.0 -36.0 Win-Adjusted GPM -43.6 9.0
8.0 -54.4 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -50.3 7.0
4.0 56.1 Dragon Control % 60.0 3.0
4.0 56.7 Herald Control % 63.3 2.0
3.0 60.0 Baron Control % 52.6 5.0
3.0 Quality Wins? 5.0
30.0 % of wins as Quality 50.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

MAD Lions are just an infuriating team to bet because you know how good this team can be when they’re not playing like complete morons and they seem to go back and forth caring and not caring without any rhyme or reason. They always seem to win when I’m against them and lose the few times I do back them.

The model makes Misfits a better team. While I don’t entirely agree 100% with that if you look at the entire Summer sample it’s tough to argue against it. This style of bend but don’t break that MAD Lions are playing is very fickle and not a reliable way to play especially if other teams know it’s what you’re up to but they’ve managed to pull out a few big upset wins doing just that.

I’m having a hard time not backing Misfits with this big an edge on market price but I’m just going to take a bigger edge on first herald for Misfits at -116 (80% vs MAD’s 46.67%)

My Picks:

Prop: Misfits first herald @ -116 (1.16 units)

 


 

Excel Esports +248 vs G2 Esports -345

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -122 / under -106)

Kill Spread: +7.5 @ -120 / -7.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 9.5 / 16.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -111 / under -116)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: XL +133 / G2 -173

Model Suggested Play: Excel moneyline

Trends
G2 as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) XL as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 8 6 -290 Matches as Underdogs 6 7 +221
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 5 9 6.3 Against Kill Spread 11 2 +6
Kill Totals 7 7 27.50 Kill Totals 6 7 24.96
Team Kill Totals 5 9 16.29 Team Kill Totals 9 4 9.42
Game Time Totals 8 6 31.5 Game Time Totals 7 6 31.69
Dragons over 4.5 5 9 Dragons over 4.5 6 7
Towers over 11.5 8 6 Towers over 11.5 7 6

 

 

League Rank G2 Tale of the Tape XL League Rank
3.0 404.6 Gold Diff @ 10 min -60.8 6.0
4.0 329.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min -82.2 6.0
4.0 497.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min 671.9 6.0
21.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -51.9
5.0 19.7 Gold Diff / min first 20 -48.1 7.0
5.0 93.6 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -105.4 6.0
3.0 1847.3 Gold /min (GPM) 1724.3 7.0
60.8 Gold / min vs Avg -62.2
4.0 93.6 Gold Diff / min -54.3 6.0
4.0 1.2 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.8 7.0
3.0 1640.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1562.2 7.0
4.0 60.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -45.8 7.0
4.0 1964.1 GPM in wins 1918.2 5.0
5.0 303.5 Gold Diff per min in wins 312.0 4.0
5.0 1672.2 GPM in losses 1595.1 10.0
4.0 -221.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -298.5 6.0
93.5 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -54.4
4.0 35.6 Win-Adjusted GPM -10.3 5.0
5.0 13.0 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 21.5 4.0
1.0 63.5 Dragon Control % 32.3 9.0
10.0 26.9 Herald Control % 56.7 4.0
2.0 62.5 Baron Control % 52.6 5.0
6.0 Quality Wins? 2.0
66.7 % of wins as Quality 33.3

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

This number is just too big not to bet Excel in a must win spot against a team with a history of clowning around even with stake still in the playoff game like G2. The statistics support that this number is too big. G2 are the better team no doubt but they haven’t been this much better than anybody but the worst teams this season and Excel are competent.

Excel sides and first herald (66.67% vs 13.33%)

My Picks:

Kill Spread: XL +7.5 kills @ -120 (1.2 units)

Moneyline: XL +248 (0.25 units)

Prop: XL first herald @ +118 (1 unit)

 


 

Fnatic -345 vs Schalke 04 +253

 

Kill Total: 29.5 (over -111 / under -118)

Kill Spread: -8.5 @ -109 / +8.5 @ -125

Team Kill Totals: 17.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -125 / under -104)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: FNC -1115 / S04 +610

Model Suggested Play: Fnatic moneyline (strong)

Trends
FNC as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) S04 as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 7 4 -269 Matches as Underdogs 2 9 +195
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 5 6 6.3 Against Kill Spread 3 8 +6
Kill Totals 7 4 27.77 Kill Totals 3 8 26.23
Team Kill Totals 6 5 16.59 Team Kill Totals 3 8 10.14
Game Time Totals 5 6 31.5 Game Time Totals 5 6 32.00
Dragons over 4.5 8 3 Dragons over 4.5 4 7
Towers over 11.5 6 5 Towers over 11.5 10 1

 

 

League Rank FNC Tale of the Tape S04 League Rank
1.0 1113.8 Gold Diff @ 10 min -405.0 7.0
3.0 766.1 Gold Diff @ 15 min -2004.6 10.0
2.0 129.3 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1768.0 10.0
88.8 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -77.2
2.0 83.4 Gold Diff / min first 20 -113.4 9.0
2.0 339.8 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -620.7 10.0
1.0 1912.0 Gold /min (GPM) 1656.0 10.0
125.5 Gold / min vs Avg -130.5
2.0 161.1 Gold Diff / min -239.9 10.0
2.0 2.2 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -3.4 10.0
2.0 1655.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1535.9 9.0
2.0 107.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -141.9 10.0
1.0 1997.8 GPM in wins 1897.3 7.0
3.0 340.9 Gold Diff per min in wins 205.9 9.0
1.0 1740.3 GPM in losses 1595.7 9.0
2.0 -198.6 Gold Diff per min in losses -351.3 8.0
161.1 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -239.9
1.0 69.3 Win-Adjusted GPM -31.3 7.0
3.0 50.4 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -84.6 9.0
2.0 63.2 Dragon Control % 28.1 10.0
3.0 60.7 Herald Control % 46.7 6.0
1.0 73.7 Baron Control % 27.8 10.0
6.0 Quality Wins? 1.0
60.0 % of wins as Quality 33.3

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

I want to believe in the feel good story send off for Schalke as an organization but with the rough weekend Fnatic have had this is unfortunately a necessary “get right” spot for them having dropped their past four matches in a row albeit to three tough opponents in Misfits, MAD Lions, and Rogue.

There’s a chance we see some really wonky stuff from Schalke but I’d like backing them more if Fnatic weren’t coming into this match on a four game losing streak. Momentum matters and they’re going to want to get it together with a clean stomping ahead of playoffs.

Over towers showed an edge but I think we probably see a lopsided Fnatic stomping here.

My Picks:

Moneyline: Fnatic -345 (3.45 units)

 


LCS Summer 2021

Week Nine – Day Three

Proceed with caution on the final day of any season. I won’t have much in the LCS today because of roster swaps, motivation questions, and so much being locked up already.

 

Team Solo Mid -256 vs Dignitas +192

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -110 / under -119)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -123 / +5.5 @ -103

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over- 127 / under -103)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: TSM -238 / DIG +180

Model Suggested Play: none

Trends
TSM as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) DIG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 13 7 -258 Matches as Underdogs 6 13 +156
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 8 12 5.4 Against Kill Spread 10 9 +6
Kill Totals 6 14 24.25 Kill Totals 8 11 25.29
Team Kill Totals 6 14 14.15 Team Kill Totals 10 9 10.13
Game Time Totals 8 12 32.2 Game Time Totals 8 11 31.79
Dragons over 4.5 8 12 Dragons over 4.5 6 13
Towers over 11.5 13 7 Towers over 11.5 8 11

 

League Rank TSM Tale of the Tape DIG League Rank
4 326.9 Gold Diff @ 10 min -66.7 6
5 80.0 Gold Diff @ 15 min -86.4 6
5 42.3 Gold Diff @ 20 min 10.6 6
0.7 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -5.8
5 27.5 Gold Diff / min first 20 -23.0 6
5 104.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -151.4 8
7 1773.5 Gold /min (GPM) 1737.8 8
-17.0 Gold / min vs Avg -52.7
5 46.5 Gold Diff / min -65.6 7
5 0.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.9 7
6 1611.5 Kill Agnostic GPM 1554.5 8
5 32.1 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -69.3 8
9 1579.4 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1623.7 4
10 1860.5 GPM in wins 1919.8 5
9 201.9 Gold Diff per min in wins 327.7 4
6 1618.5 GPM in losses 1607.8 7
3 -241.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -346.5 9
44.0 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -68.1
10 -81.2 Win-Adjusted GPM -21.9 5
9 -96.9 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 28.8 4
2 57.5 Dragon Control % 46.7 8
3 55.3 Herald Control % 53.2 5
1 67.6 Baron Control % 37.0 9
6.0 Quality Wins? 5.0
37.5 % of wins as Quality 50.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Dignitas are stuck where they are no matter what happens and we saw a little bit of experimenting yesterday with the blind Yone. TSM have actually locked up first place because they hold the tiebreaker over 100 Thieves in the head-to-head so even if they lose here and 100 Thieves Academy (more on this later) pick up the win to tie the records, TSM have the tiebreaker.

There’s a reasonable chance that this match turns into a complete clown fiesta so if you want to dabble in alternate kill total overs I wouldn’t fault you but the way TSM carry themselves they just don’t strike me as much of a “for fun” team. I’d expect that they want to keep this positive momentum going into playoffs. They might throw a weird pick at us to throw other teams off the scent or something for playoffs but other than that I wouldn’t expect much.

I’m staying away from this match entirely.

My Picks:

no wagers

 


 

Immortals -133 vs Golden Guardians +104

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -115 / under -114)

Kill Spread: -2.5 @ -111 / +2.5 @ -118

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -132 / under +101)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: IMT -112 / GGS -113

Model Suggested Play: GGS moneyline (light)

Trends
IMT as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) GGS as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 8 4 -155 Matches as Underdogs 9 15 +229
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 8 4 3.3 Against Kill Spread 14 10 +7
Kill Totals 6 6 24.50 Kill Totals 18 6 24.96
Team Kill Totals 6 6 13.08 Team Kill Totals 17 7 9.08
Game Time Totals 4 8 32.0 Game Time Totals 13 11 31.21
Dragons over 4.5 7 5 Dragons over 4.5 12 12
Towers over 11.5 7 5 Towers over 11.5 17 7

 

League Rank IMT Tale of the Tape GGS League Rank
7 -228.3 Gold Diff @ 10 min -779.8 8
8 -529.6 Gold Diff @ 15 min -107.1 7
8 -1148.9 Gold Diff @ 20 min -508.5 7
5.3 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -3.5
8 -39.3 Gold Diff / min first 20 -24.5 7
6 78.7 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -84.1 7
6 1780.1 Gold /min (GPM) 1793.4 5
-10.4 Gold / min vs Avg 3.0
6 -4.5 Gold Diff / min -98.2 8
6 -0.1 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -1.2 8
7 1599.6 Kill Agnostic GPM 1614.6 5
6 -21.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -49.0 7
5 1620.6 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1663.6 1
7 1911.3 GPM in wins 1913.6 6
8 255.9 Gold Diff per min in wins 273.3 7
5 1625.1 GPM in losses 1721.3 1
5 -312.2 Gold Diff per min in losses -321.2 6
-7.0 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -100.7
7 -30.4 Win-Adjusted GPM -28.1 6
8 -42.9 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -25.5 7
7 48.7 Dragon Control % 58.7 1
9 39.6 Herald Control % 63.0 2
6 50.0 Baron Control % 34.4 10
6.0 Quality Wins? 3.0
46.2 % of wins as Quality 33.3

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

This is one of those weird motivation spots I mentioned earlier. This is a must win for Golden Guardians. If they win and FlyQuest lose then they secure the eighth and final playoff position. Immortals can’t move up or down in the standings but probably want to get off the schneid after back to back losses to Liquid and FlyQuest this weekend. Don’t want to go into playoffs with a bad run.

I’d expect this to be a really competitive game. Immortals need to “get right” but Golden Guardians absolutely need this win. Expect the kitchen sink to be thrown at this one from their end.

I like the over time total because they’ll be tense and because of that I like the over neutral objectives quite a bit, in this case towers is biggest edge on market. GGS first herald is almost always a play in their matches (70.83% vs 37.5%)

My Picks:

Prop: GGS first herald @ -116 (1.16 units)

Prop: OVER 12.5 towers @ +131 (1 unit)

 


 

Team Liquid -115 vs Cloud 9 -111

 

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: -0.5 @ -116 / +0.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 12.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -164 / under +125)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: TL -107 / C9 -119

Model Suggested Play: none

Trends
TL as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) C9 as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 15 5 -272 Matches as Underdogs 1 2 -37
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 13 7 5.8 Against Kill Spread 2 1 +2
Kill Totals 10 10 24.60 Kill Totals 1 2 24.83
Team Kill Totals 14 6 14.45 Team Kill Totals 1 2 11.83
Game Time Totals 13 7 31.7 Game Time Totals 3 0 32.00
Dragons over 4.5 10 10 Dragons over 4.5 3 0
Towers over 11.5 10 10 Towers over 11.5 2 1

 

 

League Rank TL Tale of the Tape C9 League Rank
2 768.4 Gold Diff @ 10 min 602.9 3
3 1228.3 Gold Diff @ 15 min 397.4 4
2 1416.3 Gold Diff @ 20 min 418.1 4
16.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 26.1
4 44.8 Gold Diff / min first 20 54.0 3
4 141.6 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 363.0 1
4 1807.6 Gold /min (GPM) 1894.6 2
17.1 Gold / min vs Avg 104.1
4 72.1 Gold Diff / min 136.4 2
4 1.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.8 3
3 1631.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1688.7 2
4 46.1 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 82.9 3
8 1585.8 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1605.8 6
3 1942.1 GPM in wins 2090.7 1
2 363.4 Gold Diff per min in wins 423.8 1
4 1648.5 GPM in losses 1662.8 2
4 -272.1 Gold Diff per min in losses -203.1 1
69.6 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 133.9
3 0.4 Win-Adjusted GPM 149.1 1
2 64.5 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 124.9 1
6 50.9 Dragon Control % 51.3 5
6 48.9 Herald Control % 47.9 7
5 53.3 Baron Control % 57.6 3
10.0 Quality Wins? 11.0
76.9 % of wins as Quality 84.6

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Liquid have been doing a bit of a MAD Lions impersonation always winning and blowing up advantaged spots when you go against them. I’ve been more bullish on this team than most, not that I’m particularly high on them but the player quality is just so good that their floor is so high. They’ll be constantly overrated but good enough to compete in every game.

Cloud 9 have been the better team in recent weeks even with the slump but Liquid look on point this weekend specifically with Santorin and Alphari back in the mix. With C9, EG, and Liquid all tied at 27 wins you’d expect this to be a competitive, playoff atmosphere type of match but we do have a Perkz team here and most teams don’t really care that much about seeding unless byes are involved and none of these teams can get to that point or fall below these positions so it’s tough to tell if they’ll be truly up for this or not. Liquid I expect will be a full go in this contest as they haven’t had that many games with this original roster iteration this season. My gut tells me Liquid win this for that exact reason but it’s not really enough for an actionable position.

Liquid first dragon and tower showed huge advantages on market price but again it’s tough to know how these teams are going to treat this match. First tower probably is worth a shot since C9 have been abysmal (sub 35%) this season.

My Picks:

Prop: Liquid first tower @ -135 (1.35 units)

 


 

Evil Geniuses -204 vs 100 Thieves +149

 

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -114 / under -115)

Kill Spread: -3.5 @ -143 / +3.5 @ +107 (weird cuz of moneyline movement)

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 /11.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -141 / under +108)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: EG -144 / 100T +107

Model Suggested Play: 100T moneyline (see notes below)

Trends
EG as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) 100T as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 10 5 -210 Matches as Underdogs 3 0 +46
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 7 8 5.5 Against Kill Spread 3 0 +3
Kill Totals 10 5 25.97 Kill Totals 1 2 24.83
Team Kill Totals 9 6 14.90 Team Kill Totals 3 0 10.83
Game Time Totals 8 7 31.8 Game Time Totals 0 3 32.33
Dragons over 4.5 9 6 Dragons over 4.5 0 3
Towers over 11.5 11 4 Towers over 11.5 0 3

 

 

League Rank EG Tale of the Tape 100T League Rank
1 1160.5 Gold Diff @ 10 min 243.6 5
1 2031.6 Gold Diff @ 15 min 1328.3 2
1 2306.8 Gold Diff @ 20 min 930.0 3
55.9 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 34.0
1 107.6 Gold Diff / min first 20 104.9 2
3 156.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 229.3 2
1 1925.6 Gold /min (GPM) 1810.1 3
135.2 Gold / min vs Avg 19.7
1 156.3 Gold Diff / min 135.3 3
1 2.2 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.9 2
1 1707.2 Kill Agnostic GPM 1621.0 4
1 105.6 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 91.0 2
7 1601.6 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1529.9 10
2 2063.5 GPM in wins 1901.1 8
3 344.5 Gold Diff per min in wins 326.7 5
3 1649.9 GPM in losses 1589.2 9
2 -220.2 Gold Diff per min in losses -329.5 7
153.7 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 132.8
2 121.8 Win-Adjusted GPM -40.6 8
3 45.6 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 27.8 5
4 54.0 Dragon Control % 56.9 3
1 64.6 Herald Control % 53.5 4
2 58.8 Baron Control % 54.8 4
10.0 Quality Wins? 12.0
62.5 % of wins as Quality 70.6

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

100 Thieves are starting their Academy team for this matchup.

Ignore the prices above because this is a completely different team playing for 100 Thieves.

Tenacity, Kenvi, Ryoma, Luger, and Poome are all immensely talented players and could probably compete on the LCS level as a team so do not automatically assume that EG are going to steamroll over this match especially because they have limited preparation time and film on these players. They’re also going to be hungry to prove themselves in a “tryout” spot like this.

Evil Geniuses have been the best team in the LCS this Summer but this is an unenviable position for them to be in. I’d actually lean toward the 100 Thieves side specifically because of the situational angle of this match and the players are very gifted but I’m staying away from this one.

My Picks:

no wagers

 

 


 

CLG +105 vs FlyQuest -133

 

Kill Total: 25.5 (over -115 / under -114)

Kill Spread: +2.5 @ -116 / -2.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -141 / under +108)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: CLG -114 / FLY -111

Model Suggested Play: CLG moneyline (light)

 

Trends
FLY as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) CLG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 0 3 -155 Matches as Underdogs 4 17 +170
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 0 3 4.2 Against Kill Spread 6 15 +6
Kill Totals 1 2 25.17 Kill Totals 8 13 24.69
Team Kill Totals 1 2 13.50 Team Kill Totals 6 15 9.60
Game Time Totals 1 2 32.0 Game Time Totals 12 9 31.81
Dragons over 4.5 1 2 Dragons over 4.5 12 9
Towers over 11.5 1 2 Towers over 11.5 14 7

 

League Rank FLY Tale of the Tape CLG League Rank
10 -989.8 Gold Diff @ 10 min -844.8 9
10 -2764.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min -1422.2 9
10 -2428.1 Gold Diff @ 20 min -2131.4 9
-62.5 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -66.2
10 -170.7 Gold Diff / min first 20 -79.1 9
9 -274.5 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -385.1 10
9 1707.5 Gold /min (GPM) 1674.5 10
-83.0 Gold / min vs Avg -116.0
9 -176.1 Gold Diff / min -177.2 10
9 -2.4 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -2.5 10
9 1546.8 Kill Agnostic GPM 1546.7 10
9 -110.1 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -113.8 10
3 1656.9 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1660.5 2
9 1890.6 GPM in wins 1923.5 4
10 184.2 Gold Diff per min in wins 287.0 6
10 1561.0 GPM in losses 1591.5 8
10 -464.2 Gold Diff per min in losses -331.9 8
-178.6 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -179.7
9 -51.1 Win-Adjusted GPM -18.2 4
10 -114.7 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -11.8 6
9 40.0 Dragon Control % 39.8 10
8 44.4 Herald Control % 31.9 10
6 50.0 Baron Control % 47.2 8
2.0 Quality Wins? 5.0
50.0 % of wins as Quality 83.3

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

What a weird final game of the season right? CLG get to play spoiler. A FlyQuest win and they’re on to the playoffs regardless of the Golden Guardians result from earlier in the day. CLG are eliminated and playing with house money.

I normally like the “must win” in this spot but this is an immense amount of pressure for the young kids, especially if Golden Guardians win and there’s a chance that betting this one preflop gets blown out if Golden Guardians lose and FlyQuest are suddenly in regardless. This could turn into a meaningless game if the Guardians lose and then all bets are essentially off for what could happen in this one.

I’m staying away here. If GGS end up losing and FlyQuest are in I might dabble in the kill total overs so keep an eye on the Discord for live updates but chances are I’m just going to let this one go.

My Picks:

no wagers (maybe kill total overs if GGS lose)


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and you can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

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