Saturday, August 14th Recap

 

TOP Esports vs LNG Esports (Net: -7.35 units)

 

Gen.G vs Brion (Net: +2.93 units)

Nongshim vs DRX (Net: +0.73 units)

 

MAD Lions vs G2 Esports (Net: -2.01 units)

 

100 Thieves vs Evil Geniuses (pending)

 

 

LPL Net Total: -7.35 units

LCK Net Total: +3.66 units

LEC Net: Total: -2.01 units

LCS Net Total: pending

 

Daily Net Total:

 

 

 


LPL Summer 2021

Playoffs – Lower Bracket – Round Two

 

Team WE -159 (-1.5 maps @ +125, -2.5 @ +352, +1.5 @ -323, +2.5 @ -1250)

vs

BiliBili Gaming +133 (+1.5 maps @ -161, +2.5 @ -526, -1.5 @ +239, -2.5 @ +629)

 

Map Moneyline: WE -143 / BLG +112

Maps Total: 3.5 maps (over -256 / under +195), 4.5 maps (over +190 / under -250)

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -125 / under -104)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -118 / +4.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 15.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -123 / under -105)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -141 / +110 (map), -165 / +138 (series)

Model Suggested Play:  none

Starters:

WE – Breathe, Beishang, Shanks, Elk, Missing

BLG- Biubiu, Weiwei, Zeka, Aiming, ppgod

Trends
WE as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) BLG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 8 2 -668 Matches as Underdogs 4 5 +211
Against Map Spread 5 5 -11 Against Map Spread 7 2 -154
Against Kill Spread 17 9 6.5 Against Kill Spread 12 11 +6
Kill Totals 14 12 25.80 Kill Totals 13 10 25.61
Team Kill Totals 16 10 15.60 Team Kill Totals 13 10 10.17
Game Time Totals 13 13 30.8 Game Time Totals 14 9 31.00
Dragons over 4.5 10 16 Dragons over 4.5 9 14
Towers over 11.5 15 11 Towers over 11.5 14 9

 

League Rank WE Tale of the Tape BiliBili League Rank
4 594.4 Gold Diff @ 10 min 142.1 7
1 2303.6 Gold Diff @ 15 min 857.8 3
1 1725.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min 1675.0 3
38.0 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 25.0
5 72.7 Gold Diff / min first 20 39.4 6
9 324.7 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 414.5 3
6 1830.7 Gold /min (GPM) 1837.2 5
39.7 Gold / min vs Avg 46.2
5 90.5 Gold Diff / min 72.9 7
5 1.3 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.0 7
8 1611.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1629.7 6
5 46.4 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 41.0 8
8 1960.1 GPM in wins 1985.1 5
5 361.9 Gold Diff per min in wins 358.6 6
8 1632.9 GPM in losses 1628.4 10
9 -324.6 Gold Diff per min in losses -330.5 11
94.9 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 77.2
8 8.3 Win-Adjusted GPM 33.3 5
5 37.9 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 34.6 6
10 49.2 Dragon Control % 52.3 5
2 60.5 Herald Control % 51.2 9
6 57.1 Baron Control % 58.8 5
14.0 Quality Wins? 17.0
53.8 % of wins as Quality 70.8

 (These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
3 1 22.772%
3 2 20.299%
3 0 17.031%
2 3 16.322%
1 3 14.723%
0 3 8.854%
(Series Win): 60.101%

 

 

Team WE won the head-to-head 2-1 back in week four.

 

Quantitative Analysis:

It’s important to note that the model weights trending performance and WE are coming off of an ABSOLUTE SHELLACKING of OMG in quite literally their three best individual game performances of the entire season. I know this is the quantitative section of the breakdown but a lot of what you take from that depends on what you think of OMG. If you think they were a fraudulent team and were actually bad then it stands to reason that you could make a case to throw that data out. You like to see good teams smash bad teams but it can skew the numbers. Let’s take a look at the Tale of the Tape and series outcome projections without that OMG stomping included.

League Rank WE Tale of the Tape BiliBili League Rank
14 -438.1 Gold Diff @ 10 min 142.1 6
8 -150.6 Gold Diff @ 15 min 857.8 2
10 -312.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min 1675.0 2
21.3 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 25.6
7 47.6 Gold Diff / min first 20 39.4 5
10 286.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 414.5 3
7 1811.5 Gold /min (GPM) 1837.2 5
20.8 Gold / min vs Avg 46.5
8 57.5 Gold Diff / min 72.9 6
8 0.8 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.0 6
9 1601.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1629.7 6
8 27.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 41.0 7
9 1943.4 GPM in wins 1985.1 5
7 339.9 Gold Diff per min in wins 358.6 5
8 1632.9 GPM in losses 1628.4 10
9 -324.6 Gold Diff per min in losses -330.5 11
61.8 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 77.2
9 -7.3 Win-Adjusted GPM 34.3 5
7 17.2 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 35.9 5
12 47.5 Dragon Control % 52.3 6
2 58.8 Herald Control % 51.2 9
7 54.3 Baron Control % 58.8 5
12.0 Quality Wins? 17.0
52.2 % of wins as Quality 70.8

 

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
1 3 23.824%
2 3 20.533%
0 3 18.428%
3 2 15.550%
3 1 13.662%
3 0 8.003%
(Series Win): 37.215%

 

Just for comparison, those were three of the seven most lopsided games at the 15 and 20 minute mark of the entire LPL season all in one series. Without it, BiliBili should be the favorites according to the model.

Let’s compare the two teams only against other playoff teams excluding OMG.

League Rank WE Tale of the Tape BiliBili League Rank
15 -634.1 Gold Diff @ 10 min -389.6 12
11 -499.1 Gold Diff @ 15 min -553.1 12
10 150.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -712.5 7
5.3 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -4.3
9 -5.7 Gold Diff / min first 20 -16.3 11
12 155.5 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 251.8 10
13 1736.9 Gold /min (GPM) 1766.3 10
-45.3 Gold / min vs Avg -15.8
11 -57.4 Gold Diff / min -61.5 12
11 -0.8 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.9 12
14 1553.7 Kill Agnostic GPM 1586.2 10
12 -46.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -39.7 11
17 1889.7 GPM in wins 1963.6 7
15 268.3 Gold Diff per min in wins 328.2 7
14 1597.9 GPM in losses 1625.4 9
12 -353.6 Gold Diff per min in losses -339.8 10
-38.5 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -42.5
17 -56.7 Win-Adjusted GPM 17.2 7
15 -48.4 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 11.5 7
6 52.1 Dragon Control % 43.0 15
13 45.2 Herald Control % 50.0 8
13 47.6 Baron Control % 48.4 10
3.0 Quality Wins? 6.0
30.0 % of wins as Quality 60.0

 

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
3 1 19.622%
3 2 19.165%
2 3 18.294%
1 3 17.878%
3 0 13.393%
0 3 11.648%
(Series Win): 52.180%

 

This filter makes this a 51-49 series, essentially a coin flip. To me this is the most accurate interpretation. BiliBili have steadily improved as the season has gone on as have Team WE. They’re both very strong

Conclusion: With vanilla non-filtered model, price is dead on. With the OMG outlier taken out, BLG should be favored. With the teams filtered down to non-OMG playoff teams it’s a 51-49 series. BLG are worth a play as the dogs here.

 

Qualitative Analysis:

While I tend to throw out performances that are clear outliers to get a more granular look or at least compare before and after from a quantitative perspective, there’s something to be said for a team “taking care of business” and smashing a bad team. You don’t want to give no credit but it’s also worth noting that you shouldn’t overreact to a complete annihilation like that either especially if you don’t hold the opponent in high regard.

To me this is honestly a 50/50 match. I think BLG are generally a smarter team with how they approach the game. They make fewer transitional mistakes, have stronger setup around neutral objectives, and philosophically are more versatile in my opinion. I think pound for pound the WE outer laners are slightly better but BLG have the stronger mid. Jungle maybe a slight edge to Beishang. FoFo has quietly been one of the best mid laners in the league.

I prefer the way BLG approach the game but it’s not enough of a reason to adjust one way or the other. They are in the slightly better situation here having the extra preparation time but it’s tough for them to really take much away from the Team WE series against OMG. It’s not like OMG showed some crazy plan or WE really had to do anything out of the ordinary to stomp them.

No adjustments either way for me.

I’ll be playing BLG because I think the number is a value given that I think this is essentially a coin flip.

Conclusion: Match is more or less a coin flip. Slightly prefer the way BLG play the game but no adjustments.

 

Derivatives and Other Markets:

When you filter to these teams just against other non-OMG playoff teams the derivative markets are all -EV positions EXCEPT the time total OVER 31 which is a strong edge on market price. Here are the time total projections against other non-OMG playoff teams.

WE BiliBili
Average Game Time 32.32 32.84
Avg Game Time (in wins) 31.48 32.46
Avg Game Time (in losses) 31.880 33.110
Combined Avg Game Time 32.580
Book Odds Weighted 32.24
Rating Odds Weighted 32.23
Volatility Rating 0.13302 0.17172 0.18748
% of Games over Time Total 62.50000 64.58333 66.66667

 

My Picks:

Moneyline: BLG +133 (2 units)

Map Spread: BLG -1.5 maps @ +238 (1 unit)

Map Spread: BLG -2.5 maps @ +626 (0.25 units)

Time Total: Map 1 OVER 31:00 @ -123 (1.5 units)

Time Total: Map 2 OVER 31:00 @ -123 (1.5 units)

Time Total: Map 3 OVER 31:00 @ -123 (1.5 units)

 


LCK Summer 2021

Week Ten – Day Four

 

 

T1 -303 (-1.5 maps @ +112, +1.5 @ -1111)

vs

Hanwha Life Esports +239 (+1.5 maps @ -143, -1.5 @ +582)

 

Map Moneyline: T1 -222 / HLE +169

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -104 / under -125)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -106 / +5.5 @ -122

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -116 / under -112)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -405 / +286 (map), -815 / +540 (series), -167 / +130 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play:  T1 -1.5 maps strongest, all double digit edge on market price (very strong)

Trends
T1 as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) HLE as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 9 5 -373 Matches as Underdogs 1 8 +191
Against Map Spread 5 9 +34 Against Map Spread 4 5 -186
Against Kill Spread 13 21 5.9 Against Kill Spread 8 14 +5
Kill Totals 11 23 23.14 Kill Totals 10 12 24.39
Team Kill Totals 12 22 13.71 Team Kill Totals 8 14 10.06
Game Time Totals 15 19 32.6 Game Time Totals 11 11 32.56
Dragons over 4.5 16 18 Dragons over 4.5 12 10
Towers over 11.5 20 14 Towers over 11.5 10 12

 

 

League Rank T1 Tale of the Tape HLE League Rank
3.0 507.4 Gold Diff @ 10 min -165.3 8.0
2.0 1311.2 Gold Diff @ 15 min -526.3 9.0
2.0 1486.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -923.4 8.0
64.2 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 0.1
1.0 73.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 -1.1 6.0
2.0 160.7 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -232.3 9.0
2.0 1819.1 Gold /min (GPM) 1737.0 8.0
50.4 Gold / min vs Avg -31.8
2.0 94.5 Gold Diff / min -74.2 9.0
2.0 1.4 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -1.0 9.0
1.0 1660.4 Kill Agnostic GPM 1588.9 9.0
2.0 65.1 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -37.1 8.0
7.0 1912.7 GPM in wins 1929.1 4.0
5.0 310.0 Gold Diff per min in wins 346.2 2.0
1.0 1681.4 GPM in losses 1626.1 3.0
1.0 -222.4 Gold Diff per min in losses -316.7 8.0
93.8 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -74.9
7.0 -2.6 Win-Adjusted GPM 13.8 4.0
5.0 15.5 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 51.7 2.0
8.0 47.4 Dragon Control % 39.2 9.0
5.0 53.7 Herald Control % 57.5 2.0
3.0 55.6 Baron Control % 36.7 9.0
13.0 Quality Wins? 10.0
52.0 % of wins as Quality 66.7

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 59.524%
2 1 27.200%
1 2 8.055%
0 2 5.220%
(Series Win): 86.725%

 

I know T1 haven’t been the sexiest team when it comes to how they win but they’re grinding games out and haven’t ever really been in danger of losing in a lot of situations. Hanwha Life are not only eliminated but not that great to begin with. We saw them get smoked in their last series despite their best efforts. I’d assume we see the Willer look again but check lineups beforehand.

I wouldn’t put it past T1 to play some developmental players here but given the tumultuous season they’ve had I’d guess they’re just going to run the lineup they’ve been using as they try to end the season on a good note before playoffs. A win here and a Nongshim loss (possible) still would NOT give T1 a top two seed since Nongshim won the head-to-head 2-0 so the best T1 can do is retain the #3 seed going into playoffs.

Don’t be disuaded by the method through with T1 win. They’re still a very strong fundamental team with elite players at every position it’s just not as dominant as a lot of people want to see but I’d expect them to handle this one with ease.

Map one angles, tower total overs, and kill total unders are the strongest positions besides the sides here.

My Picks:

Sides:

Moneyline: T1 -303 (6.06 units)

Map Spread: T1 -1.5 maps @ +112 (1 unit)

Map One Angles

Time Total: Map 1 OVER 33:00 @ -116 (1.16 units)

Kill Total (alt): Map 1 UNDER 23.5 @ -102 (2.04 units)

Prop: Map 1 OVER 12.5 towers @ +207 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 OVER 12.5 towers @ +207 (1 unit)

Kill Total (alt): Map 2 UNDER 23.5 @ +101 (1 unit)

 

 

 


 

Nongshim RedForce -120 (-1.5 maps @ +246, +1.5 @ -357)

vs

Gen.G +100 (+1.5 maps @ -333, -1.5 @ +262)

 

Map Moneyline: NS -112 / GEG -112

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -116 / under -112)

Kill Spread: -0.5 @ -112 / +0.5 @ -116

Team Kill Totals: 11.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -114 / under -115)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -118 / -106 (map), -120 / +100 (series), +241 / -326 (-1.5 / +1.5 maps)

Model Suggested Play:  none

Trends
NS as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) GEG as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 8 4 -236 Matches as Underdogs 0 2 +142
Against Map Spread 3 9 +134 Against Map Spread 1 1 -210
Against Kill Spread 14 17 4.3 Against Kill Spread 3 2 +5
Kill Totals 15 16 23.42 Kill Totals 3 2 23.00
Team Kill Totals 15 16 13.17 Team Kill Totals 2 3 9.50
Game Time Totals 19 12 32.8 Game Time Totals 2 3 33.00
Dragons over 4.5 19 12 Dragons over 4.5 3 2
Towers over 11.5 12 18 Towers over 11.5 3 2

 

 

League Rank NS Tale of the Tape GEG League Rank
5.0 89.3 Gold Diff @ 10 min -94.1 7.0
5.0 -135.8 Gold Diff @ 15 min -326.6 7.0
5.0 56.0 Gold Diff @ 20 min -1294.1 9.0
-25.5 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -5.9
4.0 9.0 Gold Diff / min first 20 -10.6 7.0
3.0 138.1 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 284.0 1.0
4.0 1782.0 Gold /min (GPM) 1800.0 3.0
13.2 Gold / min vs Avg 31.2
4.0 51.0 Gold Diff / min 73.3 3.0
4.0 0.7 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.0 3.0
6.0 1609.5 Kill Agnostic GPM 1619.5 4.0
4.0 19.1 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 32.3 3.0
8.0 1893.2 GPM in wins 1936.8 3.0
8.0 262.1 Gold Diff per min in wins 323.8 3.0
7.0 1605.3 GPM in losses 1619.9 5.0
4.0 -284.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -256.3 2.0
50.3 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 72.6
8.0 -22.2 Win-Adjusted GPM 21.5 3.0
8.0 -32.4 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 29.3 3.0
5.0 52.5 Dragon Control % 58.6 1.0
6.0 53.4 Herald Control % 42.5 8.0
2.0 56.7 Baron Control % 52.5 5.0
9.0 Quality Wins? 14.0
45.0 % of wins as Quality 56.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
2 0 26.389%
2 1 25.666%
1 2 24.297%
0 2 23.649%
(Series Win): 52.054%

 

So at this point we know Nongshim aren’t exactly paper studs. By the numbers they’re a fraudulent team in regards to wins vs expected wins via performance. They’ve been taking my money all season and I think they’re eventually going to get what’s coming to them probably in playoffs but the fact of the matter here is that Gen.G have been playing like absolute garbage relative to what they’re capable of recently and I can’t quite put a finger on why. Perhaps it’s that they’re eliminated, perhaps they’ve been figured out because of how linear their approach to the game has been this Summer. Maybe it’s a little of both.

Three weeks ago I would have absolutely hammered Gen.G here but as it stands I’m not exactly eager to back this team. If you look at the adjusted and advanced metrics this is a clear Gen.G position but these have been in decline for a few weeks now so it’s tough to gauge how much of Gen.G’s slide is just because they clinched playoffs and were coasting, the roster swaps, or any number of other factors or if it’s just a genuine decline in quality.

If you trust the advanced metrics Gen.G are probably worth a small play here but they’re not passing the eye test for me at the moment so I’m just going to stay away from sides altogether in this one.

Gen.G are a strong firsts team for blood and dragons but Nongshim getting +112 when they have a 59.1% first dragon rate this season feels criminal even though Gen.G’s sit’s at 52.3%. I’ll take a shot there and on the over dragons since both of these teams prioritize that much more than herald and this game time projects to the over. Even with delayed first dragons I much prefer the dragon price to the time total price in this instance.

Dragons over, Nongshim first dragon, and the map one angles for me in this contest.

 

My Picks:

Map One Angles

Time Total: Map 1 OVER 33:00 @ -114 (1.14 units)

Kill Total (alt): Map 1 UNDER 22.5 @ +113 (1.5 units)

Prop: Map 1 OVER 4.5 dragons @ -111 (1.11 units)

Prop: Map 2 OVER 4.5 dragons @ -108 (1.08 units)

Prop: Map 1 Nongshim first dragon @ +112 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 Nongshim first dragon @ +107 (1 unit)

 

 


 

 

LEC Playoffs

Losers’ Bracket – Round One

 

 

Fnatic -250 (-1.5 maps @ -125, -2.5 @ +227, +1.5 @ -556, +2.5 @ -2500)

vs

Team Vitality +200 (+1.5 maps @ -102, +2.5 @ -303, -1.5 @ +365, -2.5 @ +956)

 

Map Totals: 3.5 maps (over -208 / under +161), 4.5 maps (over +216 / under -286)

Map Moneyline: FNC -200 / VIT +156

Kill Total: 28.5 (over -114 / under -115)

Kill Spread: -6.5 @ -114 / +6.5 @ -115

Team Kill Totals: 17.5 / 11.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -104 / under -125)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -194 / +152 (map), -314 / +246 (series)

Model Suggested Play:  Fnatic series moneyline and -1.5 maps (light)

Trends
FNC as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) VIT as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 7 4 -269 Matches as Underdogs 3 6 +155
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 5 6 6.3 Against Kill Spread 5 4 +5
Kill Totals 7 4 27.77 Kill Totals 8 1 26.72
Team Kill Totals 6 5 16.59 Team Kill Totals 7 2 10.94
Game Time Totals 5 6 31.5 Game Time Totals 6 3 32.00
Dragons over 4.5 8 3 Dragons over 4.5 4 5
Towers over 11.5 6 5 Towers over 11.5 4 5

 

League Rank FNC Tale of the Tape VIT League Rank
1.0 1632.7 Gold Diff @ 10 min 548.8 3.0
2.0 825.9 Gold Diff @ 15 min 260.2 4.0
2.0 25.1 Gold Diff @ 20 min 52.5 5.0
87.0 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 16.7
2.0 96.7 Gold Diff / min first 20 13.0 5.0
4.0 202.0 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -18.5 6.0
2.0 1885.4 Gold /min (GPM) 1805.5 6.0
94.9 Gold / min vs Avg 14.9
3.0 121.4 Gold Diff / min 8.5 6.0
3.0 1.7 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.2 6.0
3.0 1644.3 Kill Agnostic GPM 1609.1 6.0
2.0 86.4 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 9.6 6.0
2.0 1992.6 GPM in wins 1995.1 1.0
3.0 341.1 Gold Diff per min in wins 425.7 1.0
2.0 1716.9 GPM in losses 1653.8 6.0
4.0 -223.8 Gold Diff per min in losses -325.3 7.0
121.3 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 8.5
2.0 62.4 Win-Adjusted GPM 64.8 1.0
3.0 53.3 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 138.0 1.0
2.0 62.7 Dragon Control % 56.6 4.0
1.0 67.6 Herald Control % 47.1 6.0
1.0 66.7 Baron Control % 50.0 7.0
6.0 Quality Wins? 6.0
54.5 % of wins as Quality 75.0

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
wins Losses Probability
3 1 27.814%
3 0 25.129%
3 2 20.525%
2 3 12.001%
1 3 9.509%
0 3 5.023%
(Series Win): 73.468%

 

Fnatic won the head-to-head 2-0 during the Summer regular season.

 

Quantitative Analysis:

The model rates Fnatic as a slight value on the market price (a few %) and keep in mind how large this number is. Fnatic deserve to be large favorites here by just about every measure. Vitality aren’t a bad team but they are an inconsistent team as evidenced by their economy in wins vs their economy in losses being so much different. They swing for the fences and either strike out or hit a home run. The data supports the eye test on that one.

One of the main questions going into this series was Fnatic’s pseudo slump to end the season. That’s factored into these numbers as is Vitality’s surge in the final week. With two weeks of down time I’m not putting too much stock into how these teams finished the season as much as looking at their second half performance as a whole. Fnatic are still an elite team and a few losses doesn’t change that. Vitality have a lot of issues. Fnatic have sizeable advantages across a multitude of categories and most of the adjusted and alternative performance metrics.

Conclusion: By the numbers, Fnatic are deserving of this number and a slight value on the price.

 

Qualitative Analysis:

The trick, as we’ve seen in the playoffs across the globe thus far, is that that extra preparation time has really been impactful .When you give presumably good teams, they are in playoffs after all, time to prepare for another team, particularly ones that are very linear or lack versatility, then a solid game plan can be made for the drafts and opening sequences in that amount of time. We saw this in the Misfits Rogue series as well as in the LPL where LNG have made leaps and stride improvements to their early game that was a problem all season long.

I think Fnatic are the better team and I have tough time seeing Vitality piecing together a strong enough series to take three out of five but with how strong this team’s ceiling performances are they can beat anybody and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see them spike on the day so I won’t be backing the favorites here.

Conclusion: Fnatic are deserving favorites but the number is close enough to market and Vitality with extra preparation time and their ceiling performances is enough to keep me off of Fnatic here.

 

Derivatives and other markets:

FNC League Average VIT
Combined Kills / game 31.760 27.58 29.385
Combined Kills / min 0.993 0.85 0.928
Kills per win 20.480 17.21 13.969
Kills per loss 14.563 10.12 11.438
Deaths per win 10.45 8.95 6.50
Deaths per loss 21.57 18.24 20.00
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 9.58 8.76 12.13
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 10.00 8.87 10.00
Combined Avg Kills / game 30.573
Time-Implied Total 30.205
Book Odds Weighted 30.666
Rating Weighted 30.668
Underdog Win Projection 28.531
“Gelati” Total Projection 30.482
Volatility Rating 0.17680 0.3009 0.27713

 

FNC VIT
Average Game Time 31.84 31.05
Avg Game Time (in wins) 31.69 31.71
Avg Game Time (in losses) 32.071 33.557
Combined Avg Game Time 31.444
Book Odds Weighted 32.35
Rating Odds Weighted 32.35
Volatility Rating 0.11751 0.15152 0.14661
% of Games over Time Total 44.44444 44.44444 44.44444

 

As big as the number is the model shows an edge on the market price for the overs in this contest.

For “firsts” the best value is Vitality first herald at +144. Fnatic have a 66.6% first herald rate this season but at 55.56% and that number it’s worth a shot on Vitality.

 

My Picks:

Kill Total (alt): Map 1 OVER 29.5 kills @ +104 (1 unit)

Kill Total (alt): Map 2 OVER 29.5 kills @ +104 (1 unit)

Kill Total (alt): Map 3 OVER 29.5 kills @ +104 (1 unit)

Kill Total (alt): Map 4 OVER 29.5 kills @ +104 (1 unit)

Kill Total (alt): Map 5 OVER 29.5 kills @ +104 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 Vitality first herald @ +144 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 Vitality first herald @ +144 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 3 Vitality first herald @ +144 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 4 Vitality first herald @ +144 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 5 Vitality first herald @ +144 (1 unit)

 

 


 

LCS Playoffs

Winners’ Bracket – Round Two

 

 

#1 Team Solo Mid +115 (+1.5 maps @ -154, +2.5 @ -500, -1.5 @ +250, -2.5 @ +655)

vs

#5 Team Liquid -152 (-1.5 maps @ +116, -2.5 @ +327, +1.5 @ -370, +2.5 @ -1429)

 

Map Totals: 3.5 maps (over -263 / under +189), 4.5 maps (over +187 / under -256)

Map Moneyline: TSM +115 / TL -152

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -116 / under -116)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -116 / -4.5 @ -115

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -108 / under -127)

Eco/Obj Model Projected Line: -115 / -114 (map), -116 / -113 (series)

Model Suggested Play:  TSM series moneyline, -1.5 maps (both light-moderate)

Trends
TL as Favorites Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads) TSM as Underdogs Win/Over Loss/Under Averages (Odds, Totals, Spreads)
Matches as Favorites 15 6 -265 Matches as Underdogs 5 1 +84
Against Map Spread 0 0 Against Map Spread 0 0
Against Kill Spread 13 8 5.5 Against Kill Spread 4 2 +2
Kill Totals 11 10 24.60 Kill Totals 2 4 23.67
Team Kill Totals 14 7 14.36 Team Kill Totals 5 1 10.83
Game Time Totals 14 7 31.7 Game Time Totals 5 1 32.33
Dragons over 4.5 11 10 Dragons over 4.5 4 2
Towers over 11.5 10 11 Towers over 11.5 5 1

 

 

League Rank TL Tale of the Tape TSM League Rank
3 659.1 Gold Diff @ 10 min 660.7 2
1 1849.6 Gold Diff @ 15 min 102.8 4
2 2582.4 Gold Diff @ 20 min 99.9 3
36.9 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 9.9
3 78.6 Gold Diff / min first 20 29.9 4
3 160.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 116.0 5
3 1824.2 Gold /min (GPM) 1785.3 6
36.0 Gold / min vs Avg -3.0
3 98.7 Gold Diff / min 55.3 5
3 1.4 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.8 5
3 1645.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1619.0 4
3 62.3 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 41.6 5
8 1583.6 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1577.4 9
3 1951.6 GPM in wins 1866.9 10
2 373.1 Gold Diff per min in wins 215.1 10
3 1647.9 GPM in losses 1641.8 5
4 -281.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -244.0 2
99.1 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 55.8
3 8.2 Win-Adjusted GPM -76.5 10
2 70.0 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -87.9 10
6 50.3 Dragon Control % 57.1 2
5 50.8 Herald Control % 58.5 3
3 55.0 Baron Control % 67.6 1
13.0 Quality Wins? 7.0
72.2 % of wins as Quality 38.9

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

Economy/Objective Model Series Outcome Projection (favorite):

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
1 3 18.870%
2 3 18.810%
3 2 18.690%
3 1 18.630%
0 3 12.620%
3 0 12.380%
(Series Win): 49.700%

 

TSM were a perfect 5-0 in the head-to-head.

 

Quantitative Analysis:

So, the caveat here is that all of the above data is a blend of full season and trending performance so it includes the Liquid lineups that didn’t have “the original” setup. You could also make a case for “throwing out” that shellacking they handed to Cloud 9 as an outlier but for right now lets keep that in since most consider Cloud 9 a solid team. With the actual full on lineup including Santorin it’s simply too small a sample size so I’m going to start and filter with Liquid “since Alphari returned” in week six.

These would be the league wide power numbers “since Alphari returned” as well as the tale of the tape for this series.

“Since Alphari returned”
Team Power # Rank
EG 1.231895411 1
TSM 0.6625293372 2
100T 0.6153118271 3
TL 0.6141500246 4
C9 0.1578563472 5
GGS -0.06080855474 6
IMT -0.5163852392 7
DIG -0.7694457024 8
CLG -1.045094982 9
FLY -1.086045697 10

 

League Rank TL Tale of the Tape TSM League Rank
2 783.9 Gold Diff @ 10 min 660.7 3
1 2264.9 Gold Diff @ 15 min 102.8 4
1 2582.4 Gold Diff @ 20 min 99.9 3
74.6 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 5.7
1 135.2 Gold Diff / min first 20 29.9 4
5 108.9 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 116.0 4
3 1835.8 Gold /min (GPM) 1785.3 6
46.4 Gold / min vs Avg -4.1
3 113.7 Gold Diff / min 55.3 5
2 1.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.8 5
3 1665.0 Kill Agnostic GPM 1619.0 4
2 84.2 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 41.6 5
8 1580.8 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1577.4 9
3 1952.0 GPM in wins 1866.9 10
2 369.2 Gold Diff per min in wins 215.1 10
4 1642.3 GPM in losses 1641.8 5
4 -312.1 Gold Diff per min in losses -244.0 2
112.7 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 54.3
3 8.6 Win-Adjusted GPM -76.6 10
2 66.5 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -87.6 10
7 47.8 Dragon Control % 57.1 2
3 59.4 Herald Control % 58.5 4
4 50.0 Baron Control % 67.6 1
7.0 Quality Wins? 7.0
70.0 % of wins as Quality 38.9

Obviously the Cloud 9 series is heavily boosting this. Let’s take a look with that one taken out for a better picture.

League Rank TL Tale of the Tape TSM League Rank
1 928.6 Gold Diff @ 10 min 660.7 3
2 1668.1 Gold Diff @ 15 min 102.8 4
2 1680.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min 99.9 3
60.9 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 7.2
2 109.8 Gold Diff / min first 20 29.9 4
6 8.8 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 116.0 4
3 1807.7 Gold /min (GPM) 1785.3 6
21.1 Gold / min vs Avg -1.3
4 69.7 Gold Diff / min 55.3 5
4 1.0 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 0.8 5
3 1644.3 Kill Agnostic GPM 1619.0 4
3 58.7 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 41.6 5
8 1585.6 Opp Kill Agnostic GPM 1577.4 9
5 1927.2 GPM in wins 1866.9 10
2 344.3 Gold Diff per min in wins 215.1 10
5 1640.4 GPM in losses 1641.8 4
5 -314.6 Gold Diff per min in losses -244.0 2
73.1 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 58.7
5 -13.7 Win-Adjusted GPM -74.1 10
2 44.1 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -85.1 10
8 45.3 Dragon Control % 57.1 2
4 58.3 Herald Control % 58.5 3
8 42.9 Baron Control % 67.6 1
5.0 Quality Wins? 7.0
71.4 % of wins as Quality 38.9

Turns out, it’s really not boosting these numbers as much as you’d think if you take out those extremely good performances.

Folks… Liquid is “back” like John Wick… at least by the numbers they are.

Now, I’m not saying this is the best team in the league or anything like that but they do deserve a bump the catch is that the market has already factored that in. With all of these adjustments the series projected outcome only changes… half a percent.

Another catch… TSM are obviously overachievers when you compare their performance to their results however, this isn’t a bad team by any stretch and they have the situational advantage. More on that below.

Conclusion: Model likes TSM slightly even after filtering Liquid to just “since Alphari returned”

 

Qualitative Analysis:

Liquid looked outstanding last week but I think it’s pretty easy to overreact to a performance like that, especially since I think Cloud 9 are a little overrated by the market and public alike.

TSM have the extra preparation time and got to see a series of some of Liquid’s best games against Cloud 9 to dissect for this match. They’ll also have side selection as the top seed. This is shouldn’t be ignored and should be adjusted for.

All told, after the situational adjustments and the data I’d lean toward the TSM side of this but it’s a no play from me.

Conclusion: Situational edge to TSM but Liquid coming in hot. Post adjustments, no plays for me.

 

Derivatives and other markets:

TL League Average TSM
Combined Kills / game 23.445 25.17 24.711
Combined Kills / min 0.711 0.78 0.778
Kills per win 16.306 17.51 14.347
Kills per loss 7.41 8.79 9.97
Deaths per win 6.61 8.49 8.33
Deaths per loss 17.46 17.30 16.88
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 10.50 9.18 6.11
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 9.46 9.28 9.44
Combined Avg Kills / game 24.078
Time-Implied Total 24.794
Book Odds Weighted 24.3080
Rating Weighted 24.0084
Underdog Win Projection 21.7535
“Gelati” Total Projection 24.2934
Volatility Rating 0.29957 0.29169 0.35273

 

TL TSM
Average Game Time 33.95 32.66
Avg Game Time (in wins) 32.25 33.86
Avg Game Time (in losses) 36.31 32.14
Combined Avg Game Time 33.31
Book Odds Weighted 33.45
Rating Odds Weighted 33.64
Volatility Rating 0.18369 0.1678 0.16185
% of Games over Time Total 48.38710 46.41577 44.44444

 

Unders are a strong value by the numbers. Playoffs tend to be a little chippier between the good teams than regular season bouts but I still think we’ll probably see more unders in this series than overs. If we split and lose the juice then so be it. No value on any of the firsts but I like the OVER 12.5 towers as well.

 

My Picks:

Prop: Map 1 OVER 12.5 towers @ +123 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 OVER 12.5 towers @ +123 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 3 OVER 12.5 towers @ +123 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 4 OVER 12.5 towers @ +123 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 5 OVER 12.5 towers @ +123 (1 unit)

Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 24.5 @ -116 (1.16 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 24.5 @ -116 (1.16 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 UNDER 24.5 @ -116 (1.16 units)

Kill Total: Map 4 UNDER 24.5 @ -116 (1.16 units)

Kill Total: Map 5 UNDER 24.5 @ -116 (1.16 units)

 

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and you can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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