Saturday, April 3rd Recap

 

 

FunPlus Phoenix vs RareAtom (Net: +5.04 units)

DAMWON vs Hanwha Life Esports(Net: +0.79 units)

G2 Esports vs MAD Lions (Net: +8.425 units)

Cloud 9 vs Team Liquid (Net: +1.7 units) (-0.86 pre-game, +2.56 live)

 

Limited time for a written recap on these, will add it as I get to it.

 

Daily Net Total: +15.955 units (+22.78% ROI)

 

 

Current Week (March 29th to April 4th):  +7.93 units (+5.69% ROI)

 

 

 


LOL Pro League (LPL)

Spring Playoffs

Round 2 – Day 2

 

#6 Team WE +127 (+1.5 maps @ -175, +2.5 @ -625, -1.5 @ +278, -2.5 @ +772)

vs

#7 Suning Gaming -164 (-1.5 maps @ +136, -2.5 @ +399, +1.5 @ -385, +2.5 @ -1667)

 

 

Map ML Price: WE +118 / SN -152

Total Maps Played: 3.5 maps (over -312 / under +233), 4.5 maps (over +164 / under -213)

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -110 / under -119)

Kill Spread: +4.5 @ -109 / -4.5 @ -120

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 14.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -102 / under -128)

 

 (Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

Suning Tale of the Tape WE
-146.7 Gold Diff @ 10 min -86.8
37.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min 227.8
-840.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min 838.3
-40.3 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 29.5
34.6 Gold Diff / min first 20 43.0
571.0 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 485.6
1843.1 Gold /min (GPM) 1869.6
38.7 Gold / min vs Avg 65.2
124.4 Gold Diff / min 134.8
1.7 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.9
1635.4 Kill Agnostic GPM 1659.0
49.7 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 99.3
1941.2 GPM in wins 2006.0
318.3 Gold Diff per min in wins 392.7
1671.4 GPM in losses 1655.4
-214.9 Gold Diff per min in losses -270.6
122.4 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 132.8
-25.9 Win-Adjusted GPM 38.9
-13.2 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 61.2
53.9 Dragon Control % 55.1
58.1 Herald Control % 57.7
56.8 Baron Control % 59.1
10.0 Quality Wins? 15.0
47.6 % of wins as Quality 68.2

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

WE series moneyline @ +127 (strong)

WE +1.5 maps @ -175 (strong)

WE -1.5 maps @ +278 (strong)

WE map moneyline @ +118 (moderate)

WE +2.5 maps @ -625 (light)

WE -2.5 maps @ +772 (light)

UNDER 3.5 maps @ +236 (light)

 

Quantitative Analysis:

The model has been very bullish on Team WE all season long though they’ve definitely fallen off a bit in the past few weeks. Suning have been the opposite, a team that has slowly been climbing the ranks in the model. By most measures these teams are very evenly matched with a few exceptions.

(SN left / WE right)

  • Gold per minute in wins: 15th / 3rd
  • Gold Differential per minute in wins: 10th / 4th
  • Gold per minute in losses: 3rd / 4th
  • Gold Differential per minute in losses: 4th / 1st
  • Win-adjusted gold per minute: 15th / 3rd
  • Win-adjusted gold differential per minute: 10th / 4th
  • Kill-agnostic gold per minute: 8th / 5th
  • Kill-agnostic gold differential per minute: 8th / 3rd
  • Opponent kill-agnostic gold per minute: 8th / 5th
  • Record vs non-LNG playoff teams (other top 9): 5 – 12 /  6 – 11
  • Team WE won the head to head matchup 2-0, one close game one not so close game

 

Conclusion: Slight edge Team WE

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
1 3 20.522%
2 3 19.550%
3 2 17.782%
3 1 16.978%
0 3 14.361%
3 0 10.807%
(Series Win): 45.567%

(Suning projected series win % via model)

 

Qualitative Analysis:

I think these teams have had opposite perceptions coming into this series based on recent performance. Admittedly, Suning have looked great of late but I’ll just remind people that their previous four matches have been against LNG (playoffs), eStar, BiliBili, and LNG again (regular season). That’s not exactly a murderer’s row of a schedule. In fact, let’s take a look a bit further back.

Suning Schedule/Results

Week Match Game Opp Result
1 1 1 TOP W
1 1 2 TOP W
2 1 1 RNG L
2 1 2 RNG W
2 1 3 RNG L
3 1 1 RA L
3 1 2 RA L
3 1 1 FPX L
3 1 2 FPX L
4 1 1 OMG W
4 1 2 OMG W
5 1 1 LGD W
5 1 2 LGD W
5 1 1 EDG L
5 1 2 EDG L
6 1 1 JDG L
6 1 2 JDG L
6 2 1 IG W
6 2 2 IG W
7 1 1 TT W
7 1 2 TT W
7 2 1 V5 W
7 2 2 V5 W
8 1 1 RW W
8 1 2 RW W
8 2 1 WE L
8 2 2 WE L
9 1 1 LNG W
9 1 2 LNG W
10 1 1 BLG W
10 1 2 BLG W
10 2 1 EST W
10 2 2 EST W

Neither of these teams have performed particularly well against the other good teams in the LPL but I just wanted to point out that Suning went on an absolute tear to finish the season with their only loss being to, that’s right, Team WE. More importantly than that though look at this strength of schedule. Suning have been significantly cleaner than they were last season but I also think the bottom half of the LPL is significantly worse this season as evidenced by a lot of the overarching macro trends like total towers taken, competitive games, etc. Suning are absolutely being overrated at least a bit.

In contrast let’s take a look at WE’s schedule just to finish this exercise.

Team WE Schedule/Results

Week Match Game Opp Result
1 1 1 RW W
1 1 2 RW W
2 1 1 V5 W
2 1 2 V5 L
2 1 3 V5 W
2 2 1 IG L
2 2 2 IG W
2 2 3 IG W
3 1 1 TT W
3 1 2 TT W
3 2 1 LNG W
3 2 2 LNG W
4 1 1 RNG L
4 1 2 RNG L
5 1 1 RA L
5 1 2 RA L
5 2 1 JDG L
5 2 2 JDG L
6 1 1 FPX W
6 1 2 FPX W
6 2 1 EST W
6 2 2 EST W
7 1 1 LGD W
7 1 2 LGD W
8 1 1 OMG L
8 1 2 OMG W
8 1 3 OMG W
8 2 1 SN W
8 2 2 SN W
9 1 1 BLG L
9 1 2 BLG W
9 1 3 BLG W
10 1 1 EDG L
10 1 2 EDG L
10 2 1 TOP L
10 2 2 TOP L

 

* Yimeng played the RA series

Much tougher end to the season. I think a lot of people started getting down on them from the three game results against the weaker OMG and BLG but keep in mind that that was BLG’s last hurrah for a playoff spot. Beisdes that, this is strictly a matter of perception. Suning are running hot, albeit against soft competition, and WE are a little cold coming into playoffs but against much tougher competition.

WE are far from perfect but they’re the better overall team based on what we’ve seen this season and I have no idea why this isn’t closer to even money. Suning have looked very good of late but they also haven’t been tested very much except in that final regular season match against LNG. My only concern here is that this will be Shanks’ playoff debut.

Another advantage is that Team WE have had extra time to prepare and got to see a series out of Suning on Friday, albeit a short one where they didn’t need to show much. Suning look really good right now and I don’t want to fault them for taking care of business and smashing bad teams but they haven’t faced a good team in three weeks (when WE beat them 2-0 in week 8).

I’ll be on Team WE here. I think these two teams are fairly evenly matched and we’re getting a good number on an underdog with extra rest against an opponent that’s been made to look better because of soft competition. Just take the plus money in 50/50’s like this unless you can point to a major flaw.

Conclusion: Slight advantage WE

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 26.78

Time-Implied: 25.652

Underdog Win: 29.668

“Gelati” Total Projection: 26.02 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 43.18% (SN 36.36% / WE 50%)

Volatility Rating:  SN 0.37310 / WE 0.22235 (League Avg: 0.3062)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

(alt) UNDER 25.5 @ +101 (moderate)

(alt) UNDER 27.5 @ -141 (moderate)

UNDER 26.5 @ -119 (light)

—-

Team Totals:

WE team total OVER 10.5 @ -125 (strong)

 

Suning League Average WE
Combined Kills / game 25.287 26.19 25.038
Combined Kills / min 0.800 0.88 0.847
Kills per win 18.182 18.43 19.074
Kills per loss 10.594 8.82 6.402
Deaths per win 6.33 8.15 8.59
Deaths per loss 16.50 18.07 17.29
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 10.90 9.67 9.90
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 6.67 9.75 10.73

The first meeting between these two was a bloody affair with 42 and 28 kills. There wasn’t a lot of interest in the map just murdering each other. Both teams really dialed back the killing over the next few weeks of the season though and both are actually below the league average. I don’t think we’ll see the same kind of games but I was hoping we’d get a higher number based on the previous matchup. Still this looks like an under play to me especially because I think these games could be 3-4 really quick, decisive wins with how these two play. Roughly 50% of LPL games have gone over 25.5 kills. My only concern with this play is that these two teams are both fairly stubborn losers but they also both die below the league average deaths per loss.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 31.152 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 32.11 / 32.08

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 36.62% (SN 45.45% / WE 27.78%)

Volatility Rating: SN 0.16704 / WE 0.13618 (League Avg: 0.16133)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 32:00 @ -128 (moderate-strong)

 

Suning WE
Average Game Time 32.24 30.06
Avg Game Time (in wins) 30.34 28.28
Avg Game Time (in losses) 35.569 34.163

What makes this matchup unique is that these teams are both very stubborn losers AND very quick winners. I tend to think we’ll probably get a few lopsided stomps in this series and then maybe one or two really competitive games but if you think about the range of outcomes I think it’s way more likely that you see more quick stomps between these two. That said, this number is set at 32. I do agree with the model and lean under but I think there are better ways to play this in other derivative markets.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -244 (VERY strong)

WE first tower @ +100 (strong)

UNDER 4.5 dragons @ +107 (moderate)

WE first dragon @ +115 (moderate)**

SN first blood @ -123 (moderate)

WE first herald @ -143 (light)

** denotes advantage in a category that the opponent is also strong in, must be considered

I love the under towers in this matchup in general (12.12% / 16.67% of games go over) and the under 4.5 dragons as an alternative way to play the under time total but it’s not quite as good a number as I’d like, what can I say I’m picky. I also like WE first tower quite a bit but I’ve got plenty of WE exposure already so I’ll pass there. Just the under 12.5 towers.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: Team WE +127 (2 units)

Map Spread: Team WE -1.5 maps @ +278 (1 unit)

Map Spread: Team WE -2.5 maps @ +781 (0.5 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 25.5 @ +101 (1 unit)

Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 25.5 @ +110 (1 unit)

Kill Total: Map 3 UNDER 25.5 @ +106 (1 unit)

Kill Total: Map 4 UNDER 25.5 @ +105 (1 unit)

Kill Total: Map 5 UNDER 25.5 @ +106 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 1 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -244 (2.44 units)

Prop: Map 2 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -244 (2.44 units)

Prop: Map 3 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -244 (2.44 units)

Prop: Map 4 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -227 (2.27 units)

Prop: Map 5 UNDER 12.5 towers @ -222 (2.22 units)

 


LOL Champions Korea (LCK)

Spring Playoffs

Semifinals – Day 2

 

 

#2 Gen.G +118 (+1.5 maps @ -189, +2.5 @ -625, -1.5 @ +243, -2.5 @ +647)

vs

#4 T1 -152 (-1.5 maps @ +146, -2.5 @ +397, +1.5 @ -333, +2.5 @ -1250)

 

 

Map ML Price: GEG +104 / T1 -132

Total Maps Played: 3.5 maps (over -333 / under +241), 4.5 maps (over +163 / under -213)

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -112 / under -115)

Kill Spread: +3.5 @ -116 / -3.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 10.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -102 / under -127)

 (Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

T1 Tale of the Tape GEG
679.0 Gold Diff @ 10 min 438.3
1515.3 Gold Diff @ 15 min 556.8
1868.9 Gold Diff @ 20 min 604.0
58.2 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 31.2
97.3 Gold Diff / min first 20 53.9
179.1 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 367.0
1839.7 Gold /min (GPM) 1860.4
55.3 Gold / min vs Avg 76.0
112.7 Gold Diff / min 150.7
1.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 2.1
1647.6 Kill Agnostic GPM 1686.4
69.2 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 109.5
1959.1 GPM in wins 1956.4
350.1 Gold Diff per min in wins 347.3
1650.1 GPM in losses 1674.8
-264.3 Gold Diff per min in losses -229.4
115.2 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 153.2
28.2 Win-Adjusted GPM 25.6
56.5 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 53.7
51.8 Dragon Control % 54.1
56.5 Herald Control % 67.5
55.9 Baron Control % 73.6
16.0 Quality Wins? 18.0
59.3 % of wins as Quality 62.1

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Gen.G series moneyline @ +118 (moderate-strong)

Gen.G +1.5 maps @ -189 (moderate)

Gen.G -1.5 maps @ +243 (moderate)

Gen.G map moneyline @ +104 (moderate-light)

Gen.G +2.5 maps @ -625 (light)

 

Quantitative Analysis:

 

(T1 left / Gen.G right)

  • Gold per minute in wins: 3rd / 4th
  • Gold Differential per minute in wins: 2nd / 3rd
  • Gold per minute in losses: 4th / 2nd
  • Gold Differential per minute in losses: 3rd / 2nd
  • Win-adjusted gold per minute: 3rd / 4th
  • Win-adjusted gold differential per minute: 2nd / 3rd
  • Kill-agnostic gold per minute: 3rd / 1st
  • Kill-agnostic gold differential per minute: 3rd / 2nd
  • Opponent kill-agnostic gold per minute: 3rd / 2nd
  • Overall Objective Control Percentage: 5th / 2nd
  • Each team won a match in the regular season series, the first Gen.G 2-1, second T1 2-0
  • Both teams are 5-6 against the other elite teams (T1, Gen.G, DAMWON)

By most measures these teams are very close with the biggest advantage going to Gen.G in overall objective score. They’re very VERY close in all of the win-adjusted metrics but Gen.G hold a decent edge in the kill-agnostic metrics.

 

Conclusion: Slight edge Gen.G

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
1 3 20.182%
2 3 19.410%
3 2 17.980%
3 1 17.318%
0 3 13.990%
3 0 11.120%
(Series Win): 46.418%

(T1 projected series win % via model)

 

Qualitative Analysis:

T1 have rounded into form and solidified themselves, at least to me, as one of the elite three teams in the LCK. Each of these teams are capable of beating one another. They’re all exceptionally good. I happen to think DAMWON slight cut above T1 and Gen.G but there are certainly cases to be made for any one of them.

As excited as I am to watch this match, the handicap for this is rather simple to me. Just take the underdog. In all likelihood I was going to go with whoever the underdog was in this series because I think it’s closer to a coin flip than the model does. Gen.G are more dominant in their wins but they’re by no means a one-trick pony either. It’s not like this is a sell-out early game team with amplified numbers from steamrolling bad teams.

Gen.G also have the film advantage working in their favor since T1 have played a series already. There are people that would make the case that this is a disadvantage for this Gen.G team who choked with byes last year but I don’t really think that had anything to do with the off time. Generally it’s an advantage. They also have the fact that DRX are a drastically different style of team and T1 are going to have to come in against a much different look also working in their favor.

I do think Gen.G are a very slightly better overall team and are particularly adept at blowing early games open while T1 have very slightly better players. Even exchange to me.

Conclusion: no advantage either way

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 22.799

Time-Implied: 23.44

Underdog Win: 21.889

“Gelati” Total Projection: 23.052 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 40.91% (T1 50% / GEG 31.82%)

Volatility Rating:  T1 0.28981 / GEG 0.31886 (League Avg: 0.3125)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

(alt) UNDER 25.5 @ -137 (moderate-strong)

UNDER 24.5 @ -115 (moderate)

(alt) UNDER 23.5 @ +104 (moderate)

—-

Team Totals:

T1 team total OVER 13.5 @ -108 (moderate)

Gen.G team total OVER @ -114 (moderate)

T1 League Average GenG
Combined Kills / game 26.233 23.62 19.793
Combined Kills / min 0.834 0.74 0.608
Kills per win 18.284 16.42 14.170
Kills per loss 7.719 7.81 5.300
Deaths per win 7.37 7.65 6.97
Deaths per loss 17.24 16.88 15.40
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 10.26 9.15 9.00
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 9.24 9.14 9.80

 

Against the elite teams Gen.G averaged just 21.18 combined kills per game while T1 averaged 25.64 (24.0 in games Faker started).

This feels like a high tension, knife’s edge kind of game and both of these teams are so damn good at snowballing advantages that it feels like once one of them takes grasp it’s just going to be over and the chokehold will eventually set in. I absolutely love this under. I’ll be paying up in this case as the 25.5 shows the most value relative to price and frequency.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 32.519 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 32.56 / 32.58

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 46.59% (T1 50% / Gen.G 43.18%)

Volatility Rating: T1 0.14816 / Gen.G 0.15404 (League Avg: 0.15875)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

T1 GenG
Average Game Time 32.71 32.32
Avg Game Time (in wins) 32.43 32.27
Avg Game Time (in losses) 33.159 32.419

 

Against elite teams Gen.G averaged 33.65 minute games, T1 32.4 minutes. Both of these teams have been consistently landing within this range so this is a pass. I’d rather play other derivatives if I had a strong lean on a time total in this match but I do not.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -104 (moderate-strong)

** denotes advantage in a category that the opponent is also strong in, must be considered

Both of these teams are very good in the firsts so I didn’t list them here and I won’t be playing any of those.

The dragon play is interesting but like I said in the time section this is right about the window in which the 5th dragon is usually taken into a game end or extended game so it’s a big pivot point and a lot of stuff in the 50% range of occurrence so I’ll pass.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: Gen.G +118 (2 units)

Map Spread: Gen.G -1.5 maps @ +242 (1 unit)

Map Spread: Gen.G -2.5 maps @ +647 (0.5 units)

Kill Total: Map 1 UNDER 25.5 @ -137 (1.37 units)

Kill Total: Map 2 UNDER 25.5 @ -132 (1.32 units)

Kill Total: Map 3 UNDER 25.5 @ -132 (1.32 units)

Kill Total: Map 4 UNDER 25.5 @ -132 (1.32 units)

Kill Total: Map 5 UNDER 25.5 @ -132 (1.32 units)

 


LOL European Championship (LEC)

Spring Playoffs

Losers’ Bracket Semifinals

 

 

 

Rogue -175 (-1.5 maps @ +121, -2.5 @ +372, +1.5 @ -400, +2.5 @ -1429)

vs

Schalke 04 +146 (+1.5 maps @ -152, +2.5 @ -556, -1.5 @ +283, -2.5 @ +719)

 

Map ML Price: ROG -152 / S04 +118

Total Maps Played: 3.5 maps (over -323 / under +227), 4.5 maps (over +165 / under -217)

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -115 / under -112)

Kill Spread: -4.5 @ -118 / +4.5 @ -111

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -130 / under +101)

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

ROG Tale of the Tape S04
719.6 Gold Diff @ 10 min 116.3
1561.1 Gold Diff @ 15 min 156.4
1662.5 Gold Diff @ 20 min 350.6
83.1 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 8.7
121.6 Gold Diff / min first 20 -7.3
240.3 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -68.8
1869.3 Gold /min (GPM) 1783.5
84.1 Gold / min vs Avg -1.6
155.9 Gold Diff / min -17.3
2.2 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.3
1660.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1628.5
93.8 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min -1.7
1961.3 GPM in wins 1938.5
363.4 Gold Diff per min in wins 283.6
1672.0 GPM in losses 1641.5
-288.7 Gold Diff per min in losses -293.2
164.4 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -8.8
28.1 Win-Adjusted GPM 5.3
67.4 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -12.3
55.6 Dragon Control % 41.1
43.6 Herald Control % 51.1
50.0 Baron Control % 45.7
6.0 Quality Wins? 4.0
75.0 % of wins as Quality 36.4

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Rogue series moneyline @ -175 (VERY strong)

Rogue -1.5 maps @ +121 (VERY strong)

Rogue -2.5 maps @ +372 (strong)

Rogue +1.5 maps @ -400 (strong)

Rogue map moneyline @ -152 (strong)

 

Quantitative Analysis:

 

(Rogue left / Schalke right)

  • Gold per minute in wins: 5th / 6th
  • Gold Differential per minute in wins: 2nd / 7th
  • Gold per minute in losses: 2nd / 7th
  • Gold Differential per minute in losses: 3rd / 4th
  • Win-adjusted gold per minute: 5th / 6th
  • Win-adjusted gold differential per minute: 2nd / 7th
  • Kill-agnostic gold per minute: 2nd / 4th
  • Kill-agnostic gold differential per minute: 2nd / 6th
  • Opponent kill-agnostic gold per minute: 2nd / 6th
  • Overall Objective Control Percentage: 5th / 6th
  • Each team won a match in the regular season series Schalke the first, Rogue the second.

Schalke are a lot better than people think and their numbers suggest that their mid season slump was an anomaly (via poor drafts in my opinion). That said, Rogue have the edge across the board  here. In fact, they’re almost a full tier or more better than Schalke in most of these measures.

Rogue have by far the strongest early  game rating in my model (nearly twice as good as second place), a significantly stronger overall economy score even adjusting for wins, and despite being 5th/6th in objective control, are a tier above Schalke there as well.

The model thinks this is an egregious pricing for this series and shows more than a double digit edge on the market price.

Conclusion: Huge advantage to Rogue

Series Outcomes
wins Losses Probability
3 0 33.252%
3 1 30.645%
3 2 18.829%
2 3 8.349%
1 3 6.025%
0 3 2.899%
(Series Win): 82.726%

(Rogue projected series win % via model)

 

Qualitative Analysis:

To me this is an overreaction price and I happen to agree with the model that this is egregious.

It’s tough to deny how well Schalke are playing right now but I think the 3-0 over Fnatic in combination with Rogue’s loss to MAD Lions is creating a bit of a double swing effect of overreacting here. Fnatic simply aren’t that good and if you read my writeup earlier this week you shouldn’t have been that surprised (ok maybe not a 3-0) with that outcome. However, the market sees that Schalke just beet a -230 favorite 3-0 and that MAD just beat Rogue 3-1 which, in hindsight, isn’t looking like such a bad loss now is it? Keep in mind that these were literally Trymbi’s first stage games in the LEC as well and he’ll be more comfortable this time around.

Rogue are better across the board both as a team and individually and even with the losses baked in are still the best team in the LEC to myself and the model as well. MAD are playing out of their minds well right now and it’s no knock losing to them. You could say the same exact thing about Schalke I suppose but based on all the film I’ve watched this year, the numbers, player interviews, and the price this is an absolute slam dunk Rogue spot for me.

Rogue have also had extra time to prepare and have watched a full series from Schalke already this weekend.

Conclusion: Huge advantage Rogue

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 27.542

Time-Implied: 28.133

Underdog Win: 26.113

“Gelati” Total Projection: 27.952 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 51.09% (ROG 50% / S04 52.17%)

Volatility Rating:  ROG 0.29532 / S04 0.29877 (League Avg: 0.3133)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

(alt) OVER 23.5 @ -125 (moderate)

(alt) OVER 25.5 @ +106 (miniscule)

—-

Team Totals:

ROG team total OVER 13.5 @ -114 (VERY strong)

Schalke team total OVER 10.5 @ -105 (moderate)

Rogue League Average Schalke
Combined Kills / game 28.895 28.57 26.841
Combined Kills / min 0.877 0.86 0.779
Kills per win 19.379 17.99 15.881
Kills per loss 10.232 9.91 9.250
Deaths per win 7.53 8.80 8.55
Deaths per loss 18.86 18.64 17.00
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 10.60 9.41 7.09
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 8.71 9.54 8.50

 

Both of these teams very consistently score within this 23-25 range so I’ll be passing on the total, especially because I think Rogue’s ability to steamroll games quickly could lead to shorter games than the book price anticipates. If anything I’d lean under.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 33.973 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 34.04 / 33.81

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 51.09% (ROG 50% / S04 52.17%)

Volatility Rating: ROG 0.17369 / S04 0.15634 (League Avg: 0.15060)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

Rogue Schalke
Average Game Time 33.72 34.22
Avg Game Time (in wins) 33.13 35.16
Avg Game Time (in losses) 35.000 33.361

Again I’d lean under but both teams score the majority of their games right around this total so I’ll pass.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

ROG first dragon @ -139 (strong)

ROG first tower @ -169 (strong)

Schalke first blood @ -105 (moderate)**

ROG first blood @ -123 (moderate-light)**

OVER 1.5 barons @ +147 (moderate-light)

** denotes advantage in a category that the opponent is also strong in, must be considered

Rogue first tower and first dragon are solid plays here with tower being the lower variance option.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: Rogue -175 (5.25 units)

Map Spread: Rogue -1.5 maps @ +121 (1.5 units)

Map Spread: Rogue -2.5 maps @ +372 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 1 ROG first tower @ -169 (1.69 units)

Prop: Map 2 ROG first tower @ -161 (1.61 units)

Prop: Map 3 ROG first tower @ -161 (1.61 units)

Prop: Map 4 ROG first tower @ -161 (1.61 units)

Prop: Map 5 ROG first tower @ -164 (1.64 units)

 


LOL Championship Series

Spring Mid-Season Showdown Playoffs

Losers’ Bracket Semifinals

 

 

Team Solo Mid -227 (-1.5 maps @ +101, -2.5 @ +337, +1.5 @ -455, +2.5 @ -2000)

vs

100 Thieves +172 (+1.5 maps @ -128, +2.5 @ -500, -1.5 @ +312, -2.5 @ +797)

 

Map ML Price: TSM -161 / 100T +126

Total Maps Played: 3.5 maps (over -294 / under +219), 4.5 maps (over +178 / under -233)

Kill Total: 24.5 (over -122 / under -106)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -109 / +5.5 @ -119

Team Kill Totals: 14.5 / 10.5

Time Total: 33:00 (over -101 / under -128)

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

TSM Tale of the Tape 100T
-894.4 Gold Diff @ 10 min -172.8
-122.5 Gold Diff @ 15 min -189.9
-20.3 Gold Diff @ 20 min -233.5
0.6 GPM first 20 min vs Avg -10.0
-0.2 Gold Diff / min first 20 5.5
212.5 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game -80.3
1816.4 Gold /min (GPM) 1762.1
46.4 Gold / min vs Avg -7.9
78.1 Gold Diff / min -13.2
1.1 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) -0.2
1636.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1610.1
60.9 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 10.6
1924.0 GPM in wins 1895.0
307.5 Gold Diff per min in wins 256.7
1644.1 GPM in losses 1615.8
-289.1 Gold Diff per min in losses -310.0
88.9 Adjusted Gold Diff / min -2.3
6.7 Win-Adjusted GPM -22.2
19.0 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -31.9
48.4 Dragon Control % 53.7
61.2 Herald Control % 59.5
72.2 Baron Control % 54.5
7.0 Quality Wins? 3.0
43.8 % of wins as Quality 27.3

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

100T +1.5 maps @ -128 (moderate)

100T series moneyline @ +172 (moderate)

100T map moneyline @ +126 (light)

100T +2.5 maps @ -500 (light)

100T -1.5 maps @ +312 (light)

 

Quantitative Analysis:

 

(TSM left / 100T  right)

  • Gold per minute in wins: 3rd / 9th
  • Gold Differential per minute in wins: 3rd / 7th
  • Gold per minute in losses: 4th / 7th
  • Gold Differential per minute in losses: 3rd / 7th
  • Win-adjusted gold per minute: 3rd / 9th
  • Win-adjusted gold differential per minute: 3rd / 7th
  • Kill-agnostic gold per minute: 3rd / 4th
  • Kill-agnostic gold differential per minute: 3rd / 5th
  • Opponent kill-agnostic gold per minute: 3rd / 4th
  • Overall Objective Control Percentage: 3rd / 4th
  • Overall Early Game Economy: 6th / 5th
  • Post-20 minute Economy: 3rd / 6th
  • TSM decisively won both regular season matches in weeks 3 and 6

In a few of these metrics the place doesn’t show the tier drop off. TSM cut off the top 3 tier for kill-agnostic gold per minute and gold differential per minute where there’s a big drop off to 4th.

The adjusted metrics favor TSM much more strongly than the overalls here. Model uses blend.

Conclusion: Moderate edge TSM where I think it matters for a series like this, model likes 100T 

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
3 1 21.648%
3 2 19.964%
2 3 17.084%
1 3 15.851%
3 0 15.649%
0 3 9.805%
(Series Win): 57.261%

 

(TSM projected series win % via model)

 

Qualitative Analysis:

I think TSM are the better team here but the catch with this series is that neither of these teams is particularly well-equipped to abuse the other where they’re weakest which is the fact that they want to play a stay-at-home mid lane and accrue advantages through laning. The way to attack that is to get out on the map and end that early so they can’t build advantages. Neither of these teams is likely to do that with the two mid laners in this series so it becomes a matter of who plays lane better and who has more disciplined late game team fighting and objective setup.

With that in mind let’s take a look at laning statistics via my individual player model chart above. Above is a composite individual ratings chart comparing players against others at their position in experience, gold, and CS differentials as well as raw damage per minute as a way to attempt to capture this concept of laning and team fighting given the lack of tempo I think we’ll see in this series. As we can see, 100 Thieves have a decent sized advantage while if we look toward the top of this section (where I usually put this) my model adjusts for things like pace, playmaking, kill participation, vision contributions and denial, and efficiency which is why the numbers are drastically different in some cases. By the numbers 100 Thieves should have an edge in the way this game state plays out. FBI is the clear best player in the match if you want to use that as a tiebreaker.

In terms of vision, as a full team 100 Thieves are more efficient with a 48% wards cleared percentage. On film I think TSM have more logical and disciplined set up and execution in team fights. I also like their overall read on the metagame right now more than 100 Thieves.

 

Conclusion: Macro and film advantage TSM, micro advantage 100T. No clear edge.

 

I won’t be taking a position on a side in this series. If I absolutely had to it would be 100 Thieves because of the price but I’m really not that convinced by this team the adjusted and kill-agnostic numbers really paint this team as a bit of a fraud and those have been some of the strongest indicators this season.  My intuition and the “eye test” tells me TSM is a better team but I think when you have a series like this where neither team is particularly good at punishing what the other is weak against then it just turns into a weighted coin flip. With that logic you should take 100 Thieves but I’m staying away from this one because I think TSM are enough better as an overall squad that I’ll pass. Call it a gut feeling.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Odds-Weighted: 25.88

Time-Implied: 26.93

Underdog Win: 28.87

“Gelati” Total Projection: 26.27 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 47.89% (TSM 57.69% / 100T 38.1%)

Volatility Rating:  TSM 0.23902 / 100T 0.33441 (League Avg: 0.28464)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

—-

Team Totals:

100T team total OVER 10.5 @ -116 (moderate-strong)

TSM team total UNDER 14.5 @ -111 (moderate)

TSM League Average 100 Thieves
Combined Kills / game 27.070 25.83 24.509
Combined Kills / min 0.840 0.76 0.727
Kills per win 16.625 16.98 17.009
Kills per loss 11.86 9.34 7.11
Deaths per win 8.13 8.59 11.64
Deaths per loss 18.90 17.21 16.40
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 7.94 8.39 4.82
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 10.00 8.64 8.80

 

TSM have been a model of consistency in both game time totals and combined kills per game/minute. They’re VERY low volatility while 100 Thieves have been one of the most volatile teams in the LCS. I don’t usually take totals bets in situations like this unless I have a qualitative angle on the match and in this case I do but the total price is set accordingly so I’ll pass. I happen to think these will be slow, lower kill games unless they turn into multiple cataclysmic teamfights. More than likely one team is going to control the game start to finish in a slow, methodical manner, likely ace a fight and end the game. I’d lean under but this price is set well. Pass.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 34.38 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 33.94 / 33.97

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 48.81% (TSM 50% / 100T 47.62%)

Volatility Rating: TSM 0.15288 / 100T 0.21897 (League Avg: 0.1745)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

 

TSM 100 Thieves
Average Game Time 33.54 35.22
Avg Game Time (in wins) 33.44 36.34
Avg Game Time (in losses) 32.20 33.98

Again, 100T volatile, TSM not but in this case I’m going against my model and taking the over time total, but I’ll be doing it through a different medium in the other derivatives below.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

100T first herald @ +100 (strong)**

100T first dragon @ -132 (strong)

100T first tower @ +103 (strong)**

OVER 1.5 barons @ +141 (strong)

OVER 4.5 dragons @ -114 (strong)

** denotes advantage in a category that the opponent is also strong in, must be considered

Now that’s more like it!

I absolutely love the neutral objective overs in this match. I’ll be playing the over dragons AND over barons. There’s a strong case for 100T first dragon as well but as I mentioned above I’m not entirely convinced on this team and there’s a chance TSM adjust their game plan accordingly.

 

 

My Picks:

 

Prop: Map 1 OVER 4.5 dragons @ -114 (1.14 units)

Prop: Map 2 OVER 4.5 dragons @ -115 (1.15 units)

Prop: Map 3 OVER 4.5 dragons @ -114 (1.14 units)

Prop: Map 4 OVER 4.5 dragons @ -120 (1.2 units)

Prop: Map 5 OVER 4.5 dragons @ -122 (1.22 units)

Prop: Map 1 OVER 1.5 barons @ +141 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 2 OVER 1.5 barons @ +141 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 3 OVER 1.5 barons @ +141 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 4 OVER 1.5 barons @ +137 (1 unit)

Prop: Map 5 OVER 1.5 barons @ +136 (1 unit)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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