Saturday, April 10th Recap

 

DAMWON vs Gen.G (Net: -1.2 units)

 A 3-0 sometimes doesn’t mean a series was a complete blowout. Often times you can get a few competitive games. In this case it was looking like we were going to move to a best of three as Gen.G had all but dusted off a dominant game two win and had the scaling advantage just in case anything went wrong…. but things went really REALLY wrong.

You could tell they were completely tilted off in game three. It’s a shame this could have been a competitive series but Gen.G just can’t seem to shake this finals curse.  Ultimately the better team won. I don’t think anyone, including a Gen.G bull like myself, would claim Gen.G are better but I did think this was a really soft number. Sometimes good teams stomp. Going to be fun seeing this iteration of DAMWON at MSI.

TOP Esports vs Royal Never Give Up (Net: -3.32 units, +0.32 – 3.64 live)

roller coaster GIFs - Primo GIF - Latest Animated GIFs

This series was all that is good and bad with the LPL and it was extremely entertaining. Realistically RNG managed to steal yet another win like they have so often this season but this game five was honestly one for the ages. I’m limited on time but I’ll break this one down further at a later date.

G2 Esports vs Rogue (Net: +6.79 units)

 Rogue were the better team all season, they were the better team today, and they finally got off the schneid and beat G2. That said, I don’t think G2 looked very good in this series, something that I had concerns about for them during this entire patch and even going into playoffs. It sucked seeing them go out this way but our bankrolls didn’t mind. This is uncharted territory for this G2 organization so it’s going to be interesting to see how they respond to some time off and the motivation factor of being embarrassed. I expect they’ll be back in Summer with a vengeance.

Also, can people please give some credit to Rogue and MAD Lions? They’ve played really well. Not all losses by favorites are huge let downs, sometimes it’s just the up and comers playing extraordinarily well.

I’m limited on time but I’ll break this one down further at a later date.

Team Liquid vs TSM (Net: +5.0 units)

Two ridiculous come backs made this one interesting but Liquid’s overall player quality just won out. Armao had an amazing series in this one and it seemed like he couldn’t lose a smite fight today. Glad to see the redemption arch for him. Should’ve thought about the Grig revenge narrative!!

I’m limited on time but I’ll break this one down further at a later date.

 

Daily Net Total: +10.91 units (+11.73% ROI)

 

Current Week coming into today (April 5th-11th):  +22.8775 units (+24.77% ROI)

 

Last Week (March 29th to April 4th):  +30.69 units (+14.26% ROI)

 


LOL Pro League (LPL)

Winners’ Bracket Finals

 

 

#5 FunPlus Phoenix -130 (-1.5 maps @ +169, -2.5 @ +504, +1.5 @ -270, +2.5 @ -1000)

vs

#2 EDward Gaming +102 (+1.5 maps @ -227, +2.5 @ -833, -1.5 @ +203, -2.5 @ +562)

 

 

Map ML Price: FPX -111 / EDG -114 (weird I know)

Total Maps Played: 3.5 maps (over -312 / under +232), 4.5 maps (over +164 / under -213)

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -116 / under -111)

Kill Spread: +0.5 @ -116 / -0.5 @ -112

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 32:00 (over -106 / under -136)

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

FunPlus Tale of the Tape EDG
1689.6 Gold Diff @ 10 min -55.3
805.0 Gold Diff @ 15 min 520.9
213.6 Gold Diff @ 20 min 527.8
114.5 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 34.7
105.7 Gold Diff / min first 20 62.2
699.5 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 497.3
1947.6 Gold /min (GPM) 1876.7
150.6 Gold / min vs Avg 79.8
196.7 Gold Diff / min 192.1
2.6 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 2.7
1696.9 Kill Agnostic GPM 1663.1
127.0 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 98.5
2045.9 GPM in wins 1937.9
378.0 Gold Diff per min in wins 311.9
1698.1 GPM in losses 1639.6
-263.8 Gold Diff per min in losses -272.0
206.8 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 202.3
81.8 Win-Adjusted GPM -26.2
49.5 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -16.7
51.3 Dragon Control % 62.8
60.9 Herald Control % 53.2
67.7 Baron Control % 59.6
14.0 Quality Wins? 16.0
42.4 % of wins as Quality 51.6

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

FPX series moneyline @ -130 (light)

FPX +1.5 maps @ -270 (light)

FPX map moneyline @ -111 (light)

FPX -1.5 maps @ +169 (very light)

 

Quantitative Analysis:

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
3 1 21.990%
3 2 20.075%
2 3 16.858%
3 0 16.059%
1 3 15.507%
0 3 9.510%
(Series Win): 58.124%

(FPX projected series win % via model)

 

 

 * FPX Left / EDG Right

 

  • Gold per minute in wins: 1st / 15th
  • Gold Differential per minute in wins: 4th / 11th
  • Gold per minute in losses: 2nd / 7th
  • Gold Differential per minute in losses: 3rd / 4th
  • Win-adjusted gold per minute: 1st / 15th
  • Win-adjusted gold differential per minute: 4th / 11th
  • Kill-agnostic gold per minute: 1st / 4th
  • Kill-agnostic gold differential per minute: 5th / 2nd
  • Opponent kill-agnostic gold per minute: 2nd / 4th
  • Overall Objective Control: 5th / 3rd
  • Overall Team Rating: 1st / 2nd
  • Regular season series went 2-1 for EDG back in week two. Three close games.

 

 

EDG’s calling card has been dragon stacking, keeping the game close, and winning with superior team fighting. It’s very similar to how RNG play. Because of that, their economy metrics aren’t quite as potent as some of the other top teams. They don’t play a snowballing game so it’s important to make that distinction. However, looking across the board at the season long composite numbers here, FPX have a pretty strong edge in most categories with the notable exceptions being overall objective control and the kill agnostic economy metrics where it’s very close.

 

FPX have a very strong early game, are very tough to beat by keeping things close better than almost anyone in the league, and their explosive early games mean that a lot of games never even get to that point. Their overall objective control is strong but not to the level of EDG for the season.

 

Overall, the model gives a slight quantitative edge to FPX for the full season composites.

 

Below are the “only vs top nine teams” measures:

 

 

 

FunPlus Tale of the Tape EDG
1532.5 Gold Diff @ 10 min -207.3
444.8 Gold Diff @ 15 min 235.7
213.6 Gold Diff @ 20 min 337.5
88.2 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 19.7
65.1 Gold Diff / min first 20 12.0
520.8 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 374.7
1887.7 Gold /min (GPM) 1821.8
97.5 Gold / min vs Avg 31.6
113.1 Gold Diff / min 98.0
1.5 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.4
1663.0 Kill Agnostic GPM 1633.4
65.2 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 38.6
1992.6 GPM in wins 1905.5
306.1 Gold Diff per min in wins 268.2
1688.5 GPM in losses 1642.5
-253.6 Gold Diff per min in losses -266.6
133.7 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 118.6
33.6 Win-Adjusted GPM -53.6
-15.7 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min -53.6
48.9 Dragon Control % 62.0
58.6 Herald Control % 52.3
58.5 Baron Control % 50.0
5.0 Quality Wins? 5.0
26.3 % of wins as Quality 33.3

 

(Tale of the Tape both teams filtered vs top nine only)

 

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
3 1 22.348%
3 2 20.182%
2 3 16.617%
3 0 16.497%
1 3 15.149%
0 3 9.207%
(Series Win): 59.028%

 

(FPX series win % filtered to both teams vs top nine)

 

* FPX Left / EDG Right (both vs top nine teams)

 

  • Gold per minute in wins: 3rd / 16th
  • Gold Differential per minute in wins: 10th / 15th
  • Gold per minute in losses: 2nd / 6th
  • Gold Differential per minute in losses: 2nd / 4th
  • Win-adjusted gold per minute: 3rd / 16th
  • Win-adjusted gold differential per minute: 10th / 15th
  • Kill-agnostic gold per minute: 3rd / 7th
  • Kill-agnostic gold differential per minute: 8th / 7th
  • Opponent kill-agnostic gold per minute: 4th / 9th
  • Overall Objective Control: 6th / 4th
  • Overall Team Rating: 1st / 5th

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge) vs top nine teams only:

FPX series moneyline @ -130 (light)

FPX +1.5 maps @ -270 (light)

FPX map moneyline @ -111 (light)

FPX -1.5 maps @ +169 (very light)

In this iteration which filters down to each team only against the top nine teams, FPX gain about a 0.9% further edge on the series moneyline. Both of these teams have been excellent against the top of the table but in the advanced, normalized metrics FPX have been VERY VERY impressive actually performing even better against the top nine and grading as the best team in the LPL even against the other top nine teams only. They are no frauds folks.

Conclusion: Slight edge to FPX

 

Qualitative Analysis:

I mentioned it in my writeup for RNG/TOP yesterday, EDG/TOP, as well as RNG/FPX. When we get these elite caliber teams I’m going to take the better early game team almost every time unless I have a good reason to. It’s just easier to play from ahead and usually their late games aren’t exactly lacking if they’ve made it to this point.

Individually I actually think the biggest mismatch in this series, at least based on current form is Jiejie vs Tian. By the way can we talk about how Tian has looked since his break? He hasn’t been perfect but he’s been very solid and has come up clutch in a handful of spots this playoffs already. Jiejie has always been underrated but is certainly the weak link in the EDG armor if you had to pick one. A lot of people would point to the bottom lane but Lwx and Crisp have been playing lights out this playoffs.

I think FPX are going to be your league winners in the LPL and right now I think they’re playing the best league of any of these top four teams. EDG picked up the 3-0 against TOP but as I mentioned in that recap, TOP really did a lot of things to beat themselves and EDG were just there to receive the punts. I’m not trying to take credit away from them, they were excellent but I also think you’re VERY RARELY going to see EDG have three quick victories over one of these other elite teams. It’s not their style, it’s not been how they’ve performed against the good teams all season, it was just a very poor performance from TOP Esports that exaggerated their strength.

That said, this number is fairly close so I’ll be taking a very light position on FPX in this series.

Conclusion: Slight edge to FPX, jungle matchup could pose a problem for EDG

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Combined AVG kills per game: 26.459

Odds-Weighted: 27.007

Time-Implied: 26.665

Underdog Win: 28.314

“Gelati” Total Projection: 26.722 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 47.02% (FPX 60.71% / EDG 33.33%)

Volatility Rating:  FPX 0.29721 / EDG 0.27919 (League Avg: 0.3120)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

(alt) UNDER 27.5 @ -133 (strong)

—-

Team Totals:

EDG team total OVER 12.5 @ -114 (strong)

FPX team total OVER 14.5 @ -105 (moderate)

FPX League Average EDG
Combined Kills / game 27.327 26.09 25.590
Combined Kills / min 0.926 0.87 0.809
Kills per win 17.632 18.09 18.294
Kills per loss 10.019 8.86 8.344
Deaths per win 9.27 8.19 7.29
Deaths per loss 19.62 17.93 15.50
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 9.30 9.57 9.55
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 10.23 9.61 6.63

(top normal composite / bottom only vs top nine teams)

FPX League Average EDG
Combined Kills / game 27.202 26.06 25.205
Combined Kills / min 0.892 0.87 0.790
Kills per win 17.502 18.07 18.031
Kills per loss 9.950 8.86 8.438
Deaths per win 9.63 8.19 7.07
Deaths per loss 18.60 17.85 15.14
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 8.68 9.50 8.93
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 9.40 9.53 6.14

 

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 30.722 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 31.26 / 31.29

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 36.86% (FPX 25% / EDG 48.72%)

Volatility Rating: FPX 0.19082 / EDG 0.14995 (League Avg: 0.16323)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

FPX EDG
Average Game Time 29.47 31.98
Avg Game Time (in wins) 28.05 31.82
Avg Game Time (in losses) 33.064 32.590

(top normal composite / bottom only vs top nine teams)

FPX EDG
Average Game Time 31.36 32.61
Avg Game Time (in wins) 29.58 32.68
Avg Game Time (in losses) 34.730 32.460

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

EDG first tower @ +131 (VERY strong)**

EDG first blood @ +102 (VERY strong)**

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -263 (strong)

EDG first dragon @ -139 (moderate)

EDG first herald @ +129 (moderate)**

OVER 1.5 barons @ +138 (light)

** denotes advantage in a category that the opponent is also strong in, must be considered

If we filter the neutral objectives EDG are even more heavily favored for first blood and first dragon. The under 12.5 towers and OVER 1.5 barons also get stronger as well as the new OVER 4.5 dragons. I like EDG first blood quite a bit here. Against top nine teams they’re hitting at a 77%+ clip while FPX are 37.93%. First dragon isn’t a bad look either (77%+ vs 34.5% for FPX)

 

 

A quick note on my futures portfolio and this game:

As I mentioned yesterday I’ve got futures on EDG +2500 and RNG +3300 for a unit each. Now that they’ve both advanced this far one of them is making the finals and that provides me the opportunity to hedge for a guaranteed win.

There’s a case to be made for taking profits on a good moneyline number here with FPX with the logic being that they’d be larger favorites than this in finals so we’d be getting a worse “dutch” number. If FPX happen to run away with this that’s a surprisingly large amount of equity lost if the moneyline opens something like -160 instead of -130.

For example, at -130 right now I can “guarantee” a 10.3 units profit by hedging 14.7u on the -130 against my 25:1 EDG future. That’s my floor scenario. Alternatively I could wait and see where this line opens or, perhaps even get lucky enough to have both RNG and EDG in the finals in which case I can guarantee more than a 25 unit win via middling. However, if FPX make the finals and we get EDG and the number ends up soemthing like FPX -160 we’re looking at a 16 unit hedge to lock in 9 units. If it gets higher it scales accordingly.

So I have a decision to make here. I think FPX are the best team remaining but let’s just say we’ve got at most a 60-40 for these series. We’ve got a 36% chance FPX win both. With that in mind I think it just makes more sense to wait. I highly doubt it’ll open at a prohibitively large number like -200 and if I get burned for this then so be it but there’s a 15-30% chance we end up with an EDG/RNG final and given the extra equity I’ve got with the 33:1 on RNG that adds a bump as well.

In short, I could lock in 10.3 units now or maybe that goes down to 7-9 units if FPX open bigger favorites (if they make finals) or I stand to make 25+ units a decent enough amount of the time. I’ll take the upside decision in this case because the floor is so high.

Conclusion:  I’m going to wait to just lock in profits in the finals.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: FPX -130 (2.6 units)

Map Spread: FPX -1.5 maps @ +169 (1 unit)

Map Spread: FPX -2.5 maps @ +512 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 1 EDG first blood @ +102 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 2 EDG first blood @ +102 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 3 EDG first blood @ +102 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 4 EDG first blood @ +102 (0.5 units)

Prop: Map 5 EDG first blood @ +102 (0.5 units)

 

 


LOL European Championship (LEC)

Spring Playoffs

Grand Finals

 

 

 

MAD Lions +101 (+1.5 maps @ -238, +2.5 @ -833, -1.5 @ +203, -2.5 @ +584)

vs

Rogue -118 (-1.5 maps @ +182, -2.5 @ +512, +1.5 @ -270, +2.5 @ -1111)

 

 

Map ML Price: MAD -105 / ROG -120

Total Maps Played: 3.5 maps (over -333 / under +242), 4.5 maps (over +159 / under -208)

Kill Total: 26.5 (over -119 / under -110)

Kill Spread: +1.5 @ -110 / -1.5 @ -118

Team Kill Totals: 12.5 / 13.5

Time Total: 35:00 (over +176 / under -238)

 

(Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

ROG Tale of the Tape MAD
938.7 Gold Diff @ 10 min 333.9
1573.7 Gold Diff @ 15 min 437.6
1571.9 Gold Diff @ 20 min -277.1
89.0 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 89.4
128.9 Gold Diff / min first 20 56.0
250.4 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 187.3
1857.2 Gold /min (GPM) 1860.1
79.6 Gold / min vs Avg 82.4
156.4 Gold Diff / min 105.4
2.2 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 1.5
1652.1 Kill Agnostic GPM 1639.7
92.8 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 76.9
1941.9 GPM in wins 1976.7
344.8 Gold Diff per min in wins 361.0
1659.6 GPM in losses 1673.5
-283.2 Gold Diff per min in losses -303.7
175.0 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 123.9
9.3 Win-Adjusted GPM 44.1
48.3 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 64.5
55.6 Dragon Control % 56.4
47.2 Herald Control % 74.0
51.3 Baron Control % 63.4
7.0 Quality Wins? 12.0
87.5 % of wins as Quality 75.0

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

 

Quantitative Analysis:

Series Outcomes
wins Losses Probability
3 1 19.461%
3 2 19.092%
2 3 18.381%
1 3 18.039%
3 0 13.225%
0 3 11.802%
(Series Win): 51.779%

(Rogue projected series win % via model)

 

 

 * Rogue  Left / MAD Right

 

  • Gold per minute in wins: 6th / 3rd
  • Gold Differential per minute in wins: 3rd / 2nd
  • Gold per minute in losses: 2nd / 1st
  • Gold Differential per minute in losses: 4th / 5th
  • Win-adjusted gold per minute: 6th / 3rd
  • Win-adjusted gold differential per minute: 3rd / 2nd
  • Kill-agnostic gold per minute: 1st / 2nd
  • Kill-agnostic gold differential per minute: 1st / 2nd
  • Opponent kill-agnostic gold per minute: 1st / 2nd
  • Overall Adjusted Gold per Minute: 1st / 2nd
  • Overall Objective Control: 4th / 1st
  • Overall Team Rating: 1st / 2nd
  • Regular season series MAD Lions won the regular season series 2-0
  • Playoff series was a 3-1 win for MAD Lions

 

 

MAD Lions recent playoff surge and catapulted them to second in the standings and to an elite level in the normalized and adjusted economy metrics. Rogue, as expected, have a small edge in the kill-agnostic measures which matches their +EV approach to the game, MAD have more explosive wins. MAD are also surprisingly good in losses, something they struggled with earlier in the season.  This MAD roster is a lot like G2 has been over the past few years. They sometimes make weird mistakes but they’re always battling across the map and making things difficult for you and that shows in the numbers.

 

Most of the economy metrics are close despite the rankings except the overall adjusted gold per minute where Rogue are alone in 1st by a country mile with a ridiculous +175. Just for comparison, DAMWON have a +126.3, FPX +133.7, TOP +240.  In other words, Rogue are creating the largest differentials very consistently.

 

MAD absolutely own the objective control category.

 

Conclusion: Economy edge Rogue, objective edge MAD. Roughly even.

 

Qualitative Analysis:

This is a tough series to handicap because MAD have had this meteoric playoff run. I expected this from Rogue, I didn’t expect it from MAD Lions. If I look at the full season body of work Rogue is an easy smash to me in this spot. They’re also riding high because they just got off the schneid by taking down G2 who have been a mountain that Rogue simply could not get over in the past 18 months. That said, MAD Lions are a team that likes to introduce variance to the game. It’s a little overly generic but this is, in many ways, chaos vs law.

I like to think of Rogue like Floyd Mayweather, he’s not going to let you land a haymaker right hook because he’s not going to take a lot of risks that would expose himself to a blow of that magnitude. They consistently make all the right decisions and very rarely give up large advantages. Large advantages are where MAD Lions live. They’re a haymaker throwing team. This is a bull vs matador situation to me. If MAD are able to connect on some huge outplays then they’re likely going to spike that game. Right now, they’ve been connecting on those so they look incredibly good but I’ll take the consistent, by the book, +EV approach to the game every single time unless I think there is a huge talent difference involved or a specific issue.

The model makes this a “too close to call” no bet but I’m trusting my eyes on this one and backing Rogue. Rogue are going to win just about every game where MAD don’t land their haymaker play whether that be a level one cheese, a 2v2 bottom lane all-in at level two, etc. The catch here is that MAD have had this weekend off while Rogue had to play and plan for G2 yesterday first so they have that advantage as well as game one side selection going into this series. If that wasn’t a factor I’d probably be taking a larger Rogue position.

Both of these teams are excellent. In my opinion they’re currently the two best and most disrespected teams in the LEC. It should be a great series and anything could happen. I just prefer consistency and I think Rogue are going to be able to put the chokehold on MAD here, especially with how confident they’ve got to be feeling after beating their nemesis in G2.

Conclusion: Advantage Rogue (my opinion), but film/prep advantage for MAD Lions.

Pre-Spring Finals
Team Power # Rank
ROG 1.350159872 1
MAD 1.244039227 2
MSF 0.5001877506 3
G2 0.2773152462 4
S04 0.08991846345 5
FNC -0.1429214197 6
SK -0.7157789237 7
XL -0.7223635304 8
VIT -0.7408536189 9
AST -1.091493537 10

(Pre-Spring Finals Power Ratings)

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Combined AVG kills per game: 28.355

Odds-Weighted: 29.668

Time-Implied: 28.397

Underdog Win: 32.017

“Gelati” Total Projection: 28.821 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 56.03% (ROG 46.67% / MAD 65.38%)

Volatility Rating:  ROG 0.31160 / MAD 0.29147 (League Avg: 0.3124)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

OVER 26.5 @ -119 (light)

—-

Team Totals:

MAD team total OVER 12.5 @ -105 (strong)

Rogue team total OVER 13.5 @ -125 (moderate)

Rogue League Average MAD
Combined Kills / game 25.413 27.90 31.298
Combined Kills / min 0.768 0.85 0.953
Kills per win 17.207 18.09 21.375
Kills per loss 10.642 10.01 10.281
Deaths per win 7.57 8.83 9.94
Deaths per loss 18.67 18.59 20.90
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 9.90 9.48 10.44
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 8.44 9.55 11.40

Projections like an over every which way in this series and even in a Rogue win which is the lower outcome it’s over 27. Figure you adjust downward a bit for the tension and gravitas of finals and we’re likely right about market. I also think we’re going to go under the time total in the majority of these and that total is set at a very high 35 and juiced heavily to the under which influences the time-implied prices. Realistically I think these are going to be 30-33 range. If you like MAD to win this series then the over is appetizing. Otherwise it’s right about market and only worthy of a lean to me. I’ll be passing.

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 33.009 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 33.34 / 33.36

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 31.79% (ROG 36.67% / MAD 26.92%)

Volatility Rating: ROG 0.16557 / MAD 0.12379 (League Avg: 0.15010)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

Rogue MAD
Average Game Time 33.56 32.46
Avg Game Time (in wins) 32.52 32.34
Avg Game Time (in losses) 35.996 32.643

Both of these teams are clean, decisive winners even if it’s not with blazing speed. 36% of games went over this total in the LEC which is rather high actually but all it would take is two games going over for this to bust at this price point so I’ll pass. You can play the under barons or dragons instead.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

MAD first herald @ -122 (strong)

UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -103 (moderate)

ROG first dragon @ -152 (light)

UNDER 1.5 barons @ -182 (light)

** denotes advantage in a category that the opponent is also strong in, must be considered

Both of these teams are good across the board in the firsts so I only listed the value spots.

The under 4.5 dragons is a nice alternative way to play the time total under if you don’t want to pay all the juice on it.. Both teams only go over this dragon total a combined average of 42.6% of games. Rogue first dragon, MAD first herald is the way to play the firsts if you’re going to do that but I have a feeling these two might try to mirror each other for this series. Rogue also love that early swap herald play despite not converting as often so I’ll be passing on that.

 

My Picks:

 

Moneyline: Rogue -118 (2.36 units)

Map Spread: Rogue -1.5 maps @ +182 (1 unit)

Map Spread: Rogue -2.5 maps @ +512 (0.5 units)

 

 


 

LOL Championship Series (LCS)

Mid-Season Showdown Playoff

Grand Finals

 

 

Cloud 9 -272 (-1.5 maps @ -118, -2.5 @ +259, +1.5 @ -632)

vs

Team Liquid +216 (+1.5 maps @ -103, +2.5 @ -333, -1.5 @ +453, -2.5 @ +1200)

 

 UPDATE: Armao is in 

 

 

 

Map ML Price: C9 -217 / TL +175

Total Maps Played: 3.5 maps (over -264 / under +190), 4.5 maps (over +189 / under -262)

Kill Total: 23.5 (over -114 / under -114)

Kill Spread: -5.5 @ -108 / +5.5 @ -122

Team Kill Totals: 13.5 / 9.5

Time Total: 31:00 (over -139 / under +107)

(This line is on the move and has been all over the place constantly as I’ve been writing this. I’ll provide context below.)

(does not include yesterday, sheet bugging out)

 (Individual player model positional ranking is a “living” number comparing individual performance against other players at their position)

C9 Tale of the Tape TL
281.3 Gold Diff @ 10 min 390.4
638.2 Gold Diff @ 15 min 1111.4
428.9 Gold Diff @ 20 min 339.1
55.5 GPM first 20 min vs Avg 64.2
72.6 Gold Diff / min first 20 109.7
458.2 Gold Diff / min Rest of Game 300.4
1885.4 Gold /min (GPM) 1840.6
121.0 Gold / min vs Avg 76.3
190.8 Gold Diff / min 145.2
2.7 Gold Percent Rating (GPR) 2.1
1670.4 Kill Agnostic GPM 1652.7
113.4 Kill Agnostic Gold Diff/min 84.2
1964.9 GPM in wins 1952.9
355.2 Gold Diff per min in wins 367.3
1633.4 GPM in losses 1646.7
-329.7 Gold Diff per min in losses -238.3
212.8 Adjusted Gold Diff / min 167.2
48.8 Win-Adjusted GPM 36.8
69.4 Win-Adjusted Gold Dif/min 81.5
58.2 Dragon Control % 57.1
60.4 Herald Control % 60.3
64.5 Baron Control % 54.1
8.0 Quality Wins? 14.0
42.1 % of wins as Quality 73.7

 

(These numbers use a composite blend of trending and season long performance)

 

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

Liquid every which way, all VERY strong

 

Quantitative Analysis:

Series Outcomes
Wins Losses Probability
3 1 20.602%
3 2 19.582%
2 3 17.734%
1 3 16.897%
3 0 14.450%
0 3 10.733%
(Series Win): 54.635%

 

(C9 projected series win % via model)

 

 

 * C9  Left / TL Right

 

  • Gold per minute in wins: 1st / 2nd
  • Gold Differential per minute in wins: 2nd / 1st
  • Gold per minute in losses: 5th / 2nd
  • Gold Differential per minute in losses: 7th / 1st
  • Win-adjusted gold per minute: 1st / 2nd
  • Win-adjusted gold differential per minute: 2nd / 1st
  • Kill-agnostic gold per minute: 1st / 2nd
  • Kill-agnostic gold differential per minute: 1st / 2nd
  • Opponent kill-agnostic gold per minute: 1st / 2nd
  • Overall Adjusted Gold per Minute: 1st / 2nd
  • Overall Objective Control: 1st / 3rd
  • Overall Team Rating: 1st / 2nd
  • Regular season series was won 2-0 for Liquid
  • Playoff series Cloud 9 won last week 3-1.
  • Full Season 2021: 6-6 (3-2 Lock-in win Liquid)

 

 

Most of these metrics are close but the most notable advantage for Cloud 9 is in overall adjusted gold per minute where they have one of the better scores in the world (primarily because they win hard).

The long and short of this breakdown is that these two teams are close to a 50/50 statistically.

You would need to adjust Cloud 9 up to roughly a 65% per map win rate to justify this price.

Conclusion: Model makes this significantly closer than market price

 

Qualitative Analysis:

So the obvious question here is whether or not Santorin is playing or not. I have seen nothing to support that he is so operating under the assumption that we get Armao again.

Liquid were great, for the most part, yesterday. Armao was on fire, won every every smite fight, made a lot of great decisions. It’ll be more difficult against Blaber and Perkz for sure which is the main concern here. Liquid have a good grasp on drafts right now and have better outer lanes by a good margin.

That said, this line is just ridiculous. This was even money last week. 25% difference after one series? Get out of here.

Unfortunately I don’t really have much else to say here except don’t bet C9 at this price. Just take Liquid. This price is egregiously wrong. Maybe you give a slight bump to preparation advantage but there’s just no universe where this is the correct line.

Conclusion: Price is egregious. Back Liquid. Think it’s roughly a 50-50 series maybe 55-45 Cloud 9.

 

Other Markets:

 

Kill Total Model Projections:

Combined AVG kills per game: 22.03

Odds-Weighted: 23.792

Time-Implied: 22.283

Underdog Win: 24.79

“Gelati” Total Projection: 22.7668 kills

Combined % of Games OVER Kill Total: 40.33% (C9 44% / TL 36.67%)

Volatility Rating:  C9 0.34877 / TL 0.26583 (League Avg: 0.27986)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

(alt) UNDER 24.5 @ -137 (strong)

UNDER 23.5 @ -114 (moderate-strong)

(alt) UNDER 22.5 @ +109 (light)

—-

Team Totals:

TL team total OVER 9.5 @ +100 (VERY strong)*

C9 team total OVER 13.5 @ -103 (strong)*

* heavily frequency based, throwing this out

C9 League Average TL
Combined Kills / game 21.826 25.10 22.233
Combined Kills / min 0.708 0.75 0.697
Kills per win 15.620 16.91 16.727
Kills per loss 8.06 9.18 7.64
Deaths per win 6.84 8.43 6.74
Deaths per loss 19.50 17.14 14.45
Average Margin of Victory (AMOV) 10.21 8.57 9.84
Average Margin of Defeat (AMOD) 11.17 8.82 6.55

I’m going to play the under here despite projections saying an over. Frequency is a much stronger indicator.

 

 

Time Total Projection:

Combined AVG Game Time: 31.72 minutes

Odds Weighted / Rating Weighted: 32.08 / 32.04

Combined % of Games OVER Time Total: 54.33% (C9 52% / TL 56.67%)

Volatility Rating: C9 0.14178 / TL 0.15718 (League Avg: 0.1730)

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

none

C9 TL
Average Game Time 31.13 32.31
Avg Game Time (in wins) 30.77 31.59
Avg Game Time (in losses) 32.24 33.55

I’d lean toward the under I think these could get lopsided but no play on the time total.

 

Other Derivatives:

Suggested Model Plays (in order of strength of edge):

TL first herald @ +148 (VERY VERY strong)**

TL first dragon @ -109 (strong)

UNDER 12.5 towers @ -238 (moderate-strong)

UNDER 4.5 dragons @ -112 (light)

UNDER 1.5 barons @ -200 (light)

** denotes advantage in a category that the opponent is also strong in, must be considered

Both of these teams are solid firsts teams so I only listed the strong values. Liquid first herald is another egregious price for how good both of these teams are. Dragon is also very strong given C9’s sub 50% rate.

 

My Picks:

 

This line is constantly moving right now but I like Liquid at literally anything plus money and that’s only because of the preparation advantage and substitution.

 

Map Spread: Liquid +1.5 maps @ -103 (4.12 units)

Moneyline: Liquid +216 (2.5 units)

Map Spread: Liquid -1.5 maps @ +453 (1 unit)

Map Spread: Liquid -2.5 maps @ +1200 (0.5 units)

Kill Total: Map 1  UNDER 24.5 @ -137 (1.37 units)

Kill Total: Map 2  UNDER 24.5 @ -132 (1.32 units)

Kill Total: Map 3  UNDER 24.5 @ -132 (1.32 units)

Kill Total: Map 4  UNDER 24.5 @ -127 (1.27 units)

Kill Total: Map 5  UNDER 24.5 @ -127 (1.27 units)

 


I believe in accountability. For years I’ve tracked all of my picks publicly. 2021’s selections will be via this spreadsheet but it isn’t updated until AFTER the games have started. The Esports Department subscribers get the first look.

Check out The Gold Card Podcast and can find me on Twitter @GelatiLOL

(all lines from Nitrogen unless noted otherwise)

 

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